If Helmer does win the by-election, we will all be waiting in eager anticipation to see which one of Roger Helmer or George Galloway loses his seat by the larger margin at the general election.
I don't think it's obvious that UKIP would lose the seat - since they've never won one before there's no precedent, but they might turn out to have quite strong incumbency.
If UKIP had long term plans for winning and holding Newark they wouldn't have put up a 70 year old moustache who had already attempted to retire from the European Parliament.
You may ask why Helmer then stood for re-election as an MEP. The answer is simple. He can retire at any time during the term and be replaced by the next candidate on UKIP's regional list.
The Newark by election is a grandad vs. grandchild decision.
@Stuart_Dickson - "Allegedly devomax IS on the ballot paper (where it is called 'NO'), but what exactly devomax actually means is profoundly unclear. It depends who you ask."
And couldn't you say exactly the same thing about independence?
No. Independence is very clear. If we choose independence then it is Scottish voters who decide which government and which manifesto the country will have. Every time. If we choose to continue to be subject to Westminster governments then only sometimes (probably only very occasionally) will we have a government and a manifesto decided by us.
A totally worthless manifesto, because Scotland will be a mere region within an EU state that already decides 75 percent of UK law, let alone what they extract from Salmond when he's banging on the door to get let back in. The way that 'independence' is being sold to the Scottish publuc is deeply morally reprehensible.
The 75% laws made in Brussels figure is simply spin from the party that told us that 29m Romanians & Bulgarians were about to arrive.
The only ones spinning are those that misrepresent what ukip said re the 29m
Morning Isam, IIRC, Farage claimed 75% of UK laws come from the EU, while Clegg claimed it was only 7%. - Do you recall what the 'generally accepted' figure is - and who was closest?
I think the bbc or guardian did research that showed it was closer to 50% and reported that as meaning Farage had wildly exaggerated!
15-50% is the vague figure that fact check give... The 75% was from EU commissioner but she was talking about EU law
This was looked at in a recent episode of 'More or Less' on Radio 4. Unfortunately, I can't remember what they concluded, but there was quite a bit of discussion as to what is meant by a 'law'.
Fat Steve A very interesting article. Some people point out that Thatcher was behind in the ratings against Callaghan 34 year ago but these days we do have a more Presidential emphasis on the Leader than in 1979.
Don't worry, Steve. With all the expertise on PB, your hypothesis will soon be proved. We will then be able to add it to the holy roll of PB Golden Rules.
@Stuart_Dickson - "Allegedly devomax IS on the ballot paper (where it is called 'NO'), but what exactly devomax actually means is profoundly unclear. It depends who you ask." And couldn't you say exactly the same thing about independence?
No. Independence is very clear. If we choose independence then it is Scottish voters who decide which government and which manifesto the country will have. Every time. If we choose to continue to be subject to Westminster governments then only sometimes (probably only very occasionally) will we have a government and a manifesto decided by us.
A totally worthless manifesto, because Scotland will be a mere region within an EU state that already decides 75 percent of UK law, let alone what they extract from Salmond when he's banging on the door to get let back in. The way that 'independence' is being sold to the Scottish publuc is deeply morally reprehensible.
The 75% laws made in Brussels figure is simply spin from the party that told us that 29m Romanians & Bulgarians were about to arrive.
The only ones spinning are those that misrepresent what ukip said re the 29m
Morning Isam, IIRC, Farage claimed 75% of UK laws come from the EU, while Clegg claimed it was only 7%. - Do you recall what the 'generally accepted' figure is - and who was closest?
Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.
It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
I bet David Miliband will be glad once the election is over and Ed is in Downing Street. David can then come out of hiding, as at the moment he probably thinks that public appearances will lead to the press asking him, why the public prefer him to his brother.
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Mr Dancer the very very last thing we need is an English Parliament. It would be exceptionally costly plus you'd end up with an English government and First Minister presumably but given the size and economic power of England it would massively destabilise the system.
Mr. Socrates, precisely. It'll piss off the English most of all (zero devolution as yet and only pathetic little regional assemblies doesn't to carve up the country proposed by Labour), and set the Scots even further on the path to independence.
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Nice article, however for me the question is not what happens to Labour VI when Eddie has exposure, but what happens to Tory VI. In other words, does he actively make people want to stop him becoming PM? That may hold the key to who gets to number 10.
That sounds plausible. The difficulty is that they generally think he's crap, but they don't think he's terrifyingly threatening. If you want to light a fire under people who couldn't normally be arsed to vote to turn out, or persuade people who would rather support UKIP to suck it up and vote Con, you want something a bit more alarming than, "If Labour wins they'll be a bit meh, make dull speeches, tinker with a few minor things in unhelpful ways and not get much done of any importance".
I think Labour are going to provide assistance on this, as it seems they are considering jacking up NI to increase spending on the NHS. Major tax hikes don't seem even remotely compatible with a cost of living crisis meme.
It certainly doesn't sound like a particularly clever policy. I wonder how aware people are of the cost of NI, though? I'd imagine the reason they keep using it to raise revenue despite all the negative effects of doing that is because they've polled it and found that it's quite an effective way to get money out of the voters without upsetting them too much.
Even if a poll were to show a majority in favour, it would reinforce the message that Labour favour higher taxation.
And a tax that is overwhelmingly charged on those earning between £7,956 and £41,865 per year, i.e. the squeezed middle. They pay a 12% marginal rate, while the wealthy pay a 2% marginal rate. It's the most backwards, foolishly thought through tax in UK history. We need to be moving towards eliminating it, not expanding it.
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Mr. Jim, I'd settle for English votes for English laws.
It's not legitimate to deny the vast majority of Britons the same degree of autonomy that everywhere else has. Why should Scots get devolution *and* a say over English matters? The destabilising factor was Labour's stupid and unnecessary devolution in Scotland and Wales, not the future possibility of finally giving the English a level playing field.
@Stuart_Dickson - "Allegedly devomax IS on the ballot paper (where it is called 'NO'), but what exactly devomax actually means is profoundly unclear. It depends who you ask."
And couldn't you say exactly the same thing about independence?
No. Independence is very clear. If we choose independence then it is Scottish voters who decide which government and which manifesto the country will have. Every time. If we choose to continue to be subject to Westminster governments then only sometimes (probably only very occasionally) will we have a government and a manifesto decided by us.
A totally worthless manifesto, because Scotland will be a mere region within an EU state that already decides 75 percent of UK law, let alone what they extract from Salmond when he's banging on the door to get let back in. The way that 'independence' is being sold to the Scottish publuc is deeply morally reprehensible.
The 75% laws made in Brussels figure is simply spin from the party that told us that 29m Romanians & Bulgarians were about to arrive.
The only ones spinning are those that misrepresent what ukip said re the 29m
Morning Isam, IIRC, Farage claimed 75% of UK laws come from the EU, while Clegg claimed it was only 7%. - Do you recall what the 'generally accepted' figure is - and who was closest?
It's a funny one, this, and I'm not sure there is any sensible answer.
Does the EU (rather than the ECHR) have any influence on criminal law in the UK? Is anything criminal in the UK as a result of an EU ruling?
Remarkably few of them *originate* in Brussels. (Of the eight Acts, that either passed approval of the Houses of Commons, or which received Royal assent so far in 2014, only one - "European Union (Approvals) Act 2014" is EU related.) However, that does not mean they are not influenced by Brussels, nor that there are not articles in those Acts that are not required as part of our membership of the EU. Nor does this cover the amount of law in a single Act.
If I were to guess I would say that 100% of trade regulation originates in Brussels, 90+% of product regulation legislation, 80+% of competition law, 35% of financial regulation, and 5% or less of everything else (criminal law, etc.).
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Well done for putting your head above the a parapet, but you've taken on something with confounding factors that you can't control. A little like AGW research.
It's analagous to checking if a penny is crooked by tossing it many times (assuming a binomial). Unfortunately,, you can't really tell whether it's landing on its head or its tail.
Still, you have laid out your methodology well.
Subjectively, I suspect you're right, and I have the impression that many Labour supporters do too.
Wouldn't the most likely source for the rumour about David Cameron's threat on an EU referendum if Jean-Claude Juncker is appointed be the German government? After all, they are under domestic pressure on the subject and they need to show that there are other countervailing pressures in the EU as well. It was reported in Der Spiegel first.
If so, that suggests that the German government is probably prepared to drop him as a candidate.
The source for the "Drop him or we'll have an early referendum" appeared from the reports at the time to be British. I think it's possible that they'll pick someone else in the end, but the crude tactic seems to have backfired by triggering German domestic pressure on Merkel - Continentals are wary of getting into one of those relationships where you have to do everything the partner wants because they keep threatening to walk out.
Wouldn't the most likely source for the rumour about David Cameron's threat on an EU referendum if Jean-Claude Juncker is appointed be the German government? After all, they are under domestic pressure on the subject and they need to show that there are other countervailing pressures in the EU as well. It was reported in Der Spiegel first.
If so, that suggests that the German government is probably prepared to drop him as a candidate.
They're probably the prime edit: possible [but see Nick Palmer's post below] suspects for the leak, although (assuming it's not made up) if you say this to politicians from 28 countries you presumably expect one of them to leak it.
What it would say about the German government's plans would depend on when they leaked it. It certainly looks like they _were_ planning to drop him - quite possibly from the moment Merkel first endorsed him as a candidate, since Katainen announced his plan to make himself available for the job he'd just failed to run for shortly after the vote. But then Merkel got a lot of push-back and publicly reversed, so the question is whether she's really planning to go through with the reversal or whether she's now trying to clear the way to re-reverse...
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Hmmmm hope they're not invading the rock....
Capital controls?
Nah: Spanish banks are now among the best capitalised in Europe, and one of the rating agencies just upgraded Spain today. Spain now borrows at the lowest rates in its history (lower than pre-Eurozone crisis).
Thanks to Fat Steve for the article - not sure it tells us very much. Every Labour leader in my political life going back over 30 years has been mercilessly criticised by the anti-Labour media of which there is a considerable amount.
It's one of the more odious aspects of political reporting that the Labour leader is lambasted for eating a sandwich or for not being married - neither of which has the slightest bearing on his competence or otherwise for being a future Prime Minister.
The anti-Labour media strives to rapidly create the impression that any Labour leader is either stupid, foolish, "not like you", dangerous or a mixture of all of these. Even Tony Blair had the "Phoney Tony" and the "Evil Eyes" and Cherie was always attacked even when she was just doing her job.
Labour leaders suffer far more than Conservative or even Lib Dem leaders since they are an existential threat to the Conservative Party. Realistically, the only other Prime Minister on offer next year is Ed Miliband and the line is that if we can't criticise his policies (which we will), we will criticise him.
I don't have a problem with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister - he would be as constrained as any other Prime Minister in his actions and while some on here simply can't stomach the thought of Labour back in Government, it wouldn't be the end of civilisation as we know it.
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Hmmmm hope they're not invading the rock....
Becoming a republic?
The announcement of King Juan Carlos' abdication and the succession of Prince Felipe, Prince of Asturias?
Surely you need a control measurement of how Labour does when Labour but not Miliband is heavily featured.
As it stands it's unclear whether the marginal effect suggested is in consequence of Ted Moribund being himself, or in consequence of his talking about Labour's policies, record, and neuroses.
Suppose for example that every time Ted appeared on TV, it was to stress that every NHS patient should receive a free shit sandwich every day, paid for out of a tax on banker's bonuses. Suppose further that in the wake of each such appearance, Labour's vote share went down.
This result in itself wouldn't prove that Ted was unpopular. It would suggest that Ted and / or the shit sandwich policy was unpopular. To isolate which it was, you'd need to have Ted on TV not talking about Labour stuff (difficult for him obv), and you'd need other Labour figures on, talking about the shit sandwich policy.
With Robert so bouncy and good natured this morning, he appears to have missed the gloomy EU manufacturing PMIs released by Markit this morning:
• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in May (Flash Estimate 52.5)
• Output growth slows in all nations except the Netherlands: new orders fall in France
• Selling prices rise for first time in three months.
UK to follow.
Spain improved too! PMI of 52.9 is now at a four year high. Italy PMI: 53.2, down slightly from 54.0 France continued to show contraction, although improved marginally: 49.6 from 49.3. Greece PMI of 51.0 was below April's 51.1
Nice article, however for me the question is not what happens to Labour VI when Eddie has exposure, but what happens to Tory VI. In other words, does he actively make people want to stop him becoming PM? That may hold the key to who gets to number 10.
That sounds plausible. The difficulty is that they generally think he's crap, but they don't think he's terrifyingly threatening. If you want to light a fire under people who couldn't normally be arsed to vote to turn out, or persuade people who would rather support UKIP to suck it up and vote Con, you want something a bit more alarming than, "If Labour wins they'll be a bit meh, make dull speeches, tinker with a few minor things in unhelpful ways and not get much done of any importance".
I think Labour are going to provide assistance on this, as it seems they are considering jacking up NI to increase spending on the NHS. Major tax hikes don't seem even remotely compatible with a cost of living crisis meme.
It certainly doesn't sound like a particularly clever policy. I wonder how aware people are of the cost of NI, though? I'd imagine the reason they keep using it to raise revenue despite all the negative effects of doing that is because they've polled it and found that it's quite an effective way to get money out of the voters without upsetting them too much.
You could make the same argument about any tax rise though. How many people really noticed the rise in VAT for example.
I personally would think people notice it. All you need to do is look at a payslip and see how much gets deducted each month, I do, and it's rather scary how much goes...
Workers would be even more appalled if employers NI also appeared on payslips.
On topic, Fat Steve has made a decent attempt to try to produce evidence for something that is often claimed. Others have drawn attention to weaknesses in the approach, but it's better than nothing.
Nice article, however for me the question is not what happens to Labour VI when Eddie has exposure, but what happens to Tory VI. In other words, does he actively make people want to stop him becoming PM? That may hold the key to who gets to number 10.
That sounds plausible. The difficulty is that they generally think he's crap, but they don't think he's terrifyingly threatening. If you want to light a fire under people who couldn't normally be arsed to vote to turn out, or persuade people who would rather support UKIP to suck it up and vote Con, you want something a bit more alarming than, "If Labour wins they'll be a bit meh, make dull speeches, tinker with a few minor things in unhelpful ways and not get much done of any importance".
I think Labour are going to provide assistance on this, as it seems they are considering jacking up NI to increase spending on the NHS. Major tax hikes don't seem even remotely compatible with a cost of living crisis meme.
It certainly doesn't sound like a particularly clever policy. I wonder how aware people are of the cost of NI, though? I'd imagine the reason they keep using it to raise revenue despite all the negative effects of doing that is because they've polled it and found that it's quite an effective way to get money out of the voters without upsetting them too much.
You could make the same argument about any tax rise though. How many people really noticed the rise in VAT for example.
I personally would think people notice it. All you need to do is look at a payslip and see how much gets deducted each month, I do, and it's rather scary how much goes...
Workers would be even more appalled if employers NI also appeared on payslips.
If the Tories had any long-term strategic sense they'd legislate so that it did.
I have compelling evidence that fully supports Fat_Steve's hypothesis.
My Mum is a life long Labour voter. She loved Wilson, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock et al. She informs me that Milliband "gives her the creeps". Case closed. Let's talk about something else .
I have compelling evidence that fully supports Fat_Steve's hypothesis.
My Mum is a life long Labour voter. She loved Wilson, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock et al. She informs me that Milliband "gives her the creeps". Case closed. Let's talk about something else .
So he should, really. Look at what he did to his brother and at the fact that he only got married when he realised it was politically desirable. If he'll do that to his brother and the mother of his children what will he do to us?
Does this actually mean truly random, if so no weighting would have to take place.
Or are they picking from people who have signed up to do Populus polling, in which case self selection bias from kippers would need weighting...
Is any internet sample truly random ?
These are random samples from their internet database and therefore not a random sample of the population as a whole . Hence the extreme weighting adjustments needed and applied . The recent Comres poll ( online ) for Sykes , for example had 66% saying they had voted in the Euro elections compared to 35% or so in the population as a whole .
So, Juan Carlos is abdicating. Why? Presumably, there are implications for Spanish and hence EU politics. Does anyone here know enough about Spanish politics for informed speculation? Does it open up any betting opportunities?
UK Manufacturing May PMI falls but marginally and remains comfortably in positive territory and well above its EU counterparts:
• Manufacturing PMI at 57.0 in May, down slightly from 57.3 in April
• Strong growth of output, new orders and new export business maintained.
• Broad-based jobs creation.
Thank St. George the UK is not being run by HollMilibande!
Interesting to see mortgage approvals down, M4 still negative and net lending to individuals reduce too. Takes some of the pressure of interest rate increases. My impression of Carney is that he prefers to talk up the liklihood of something happen, in order to reduce the chance that he actually has to do it.
So, Juan Carlos is abdicating. Why? Presumably, there are implications for Spanish and hence EU politics. Does anyone here know enough about Spanish politics for informed speculation? Does it open up any betting opportunities?
Age and infirmity spring immediately to mind. Although there has been a corruption scandal I'd still expect that it is ill health. I doubt it says much about Spanish politics.
So, Juan Carlos is abdicating. Why? Presumably, there are implications for Spanish and hence EU politics. Does anyone here know enough about Spanish politics for informed speculation? Does it open up any betting opportunities?
Age and infirmity spring immediately to mind. Although there has been a corruption scandal I'd still expect that it is ill health. I doubt it says much about Spanish politics.
The Spanish royal family has stayed well away from politics, so I doubt it will have much influence on anything beyond the Madrid society pages.
So, Juan Carlos is abdicating. Why? Presumably, there are implications for Spanish and hence EU politics. Does anyone here know enough about Spanish politics for informed speculation? Does it open up any betting opportunities?
The King of Spain has had and continues to have health issues and has been looking quite frail over the past few years. Additionally his popularity has taken a dive on account of a corruption scandal involving his son-in-law and daughter.
There appear to be no betting opportunities as the Crown Prince will now succeed.
So, Juan Carlos is abdicating. Why? Presumably, there are implications for Spanish and hence EU politics. Does anyone here know enough about Spanish politics for informed speculation? Does it open up any betting opportunities?
The King of Spain has had and continues to have health issues and has been looking quite frail over the past few years. Additionally his popularity has taken a dive on account of a corruption scandal involving his son-in-law and daughter.
There appear to be no betting opportunities as the Crown Prince will now succeed.
Well it appears a constitutional amendment is necessitated first. That could go awry.
Mr. Jim, don't the Dutch have a tradition of abdication?
They have certainly developed one in the last 66 years.
Quite, Juan Carlos is merely adopting the Dutch model, whereby the ruling monarch abdicates once the next in line is married, has produced an heir and is of a suitable age.
'Friends of the Earth has accused the chancellor George Osborne of exacerbating climate change by handing out £2.7bn of incentives to energy companies to fuel North Sea oil and gas production. FoE said he was too focused on propping up oil companies at the expense of making renewable energy cheaper.
David Powell, economics campaigner at FoE, said: "The chancellor falls over himself to claim renewable energy is expensive, while bending over backwards to offer oil barons massive tax breaks.'
The Queen is older, but she's not planning on abdicating.
If Juan Carlos is going because of age, we'll probably see a few people saying the Queen should do the same.
However, if that's the sole reason, the natural thing to do would have been to make the announcement on or for a significant date - his 75th birthday, the 40th anniversary of his taking the throne. That's just the way people tend to work, unless there's some reason they can't wait.
'Friends of the Earth has accused the chancellor George Osborne of exacerbating climate change by handing out £2.7bn of incentives to energy companies to fuel North Sea oil and gas production. FoE said he was too focused on propping up oil companies at the expense of making renewable energy cheaper.
David Powell, economics campaigner at FoE, said: "The chancellor falls over himself to claim renewable energy is expensive, while bending over backwards to offer oil barons massive tax breaks.'
The Queen is older, but she's not planning on abdicating.
Bully for the Queen but the vast majority of people intend to retire long before they reach her age (if they ever manage to reach her age) and long before 76 too.
Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.
It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.
I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.
FIFA has promised an investigation into the successful 2026 World Cup bid by the planet Mongo.
Work on the stadia has been plagued with rumours that unions have been suppressed, worker wages withheld and the entire world is enslaved by the threat of an enormous death ray.
Ruler Ming The Merciless said: “Our bid was the most competitive and we’re confident that the Hawkmen will be utterly crushed before the opening ceremony.
“I think the last thing anyone wants is Brian Blessed shouting abuse at the dancers and shitting on Pele from a height of 300 feet.”
I wonder how many kingdoms and principalities we still have in Europe.
Obviously there's us, the Spanish, the Dutch, Norway (I think), Liechtenstein and Monaco... where else?
There's Andorra, which is a co-principality and so President Hollande is in the unique position of being head of a republic and a monarch simultaneously. Sweden, and Luxembourg, Denmark I think round out the list.
Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.
It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.
I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.
That's true loosely, but only the subject of the budget, and Scottish MPs will vote on issues which go way beyond the budget of spending.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.
It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.
I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.
That's true loosely, but only the subject of the budget, and Scottish MPs will vote on issues which go way beyond the budget of spending.
Can you give a specific example or two please? Bearing in mind that policy changes will often have budget issues. I'd be genuinely interested to know more on your view on this. As I understand it, only SNP MPs abstain on such instances - Labour and LDs being good unionists don't have a self-denying ordinance and there aren't enough Tory MPs to worry about for this purpose (1 not making enough of a difference most of the time).
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
The teams are going to be screwed by the shorts ban.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
No alcohol either.
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
The Queen is older, but she's not planning on abdicating.
If Juan Carlos is going because of age, we'll probably see a few people saying the Queen should do the same.
However, if that's the sole reason, the natural thing to do would have been to make the announcement on or for a significant date - his 75th birthday, the 40th anniversary of his taking the throne. That's just the way people tend to work, unless there's some reason they can't wait.
HM The Queen will not abdicate. She regards abdication within our constitutional monarchy as a fundamental breach of her Coronation Oath.
Ill health may open the possibility of Charles acting as Regent as his predecessor did for his father George III and as in that case the Prince of Wales will only become monarch on the death of the incumbent.
Lets have a new thread. Now King Juan Carlos has abdicated, it would be a good idea for our Queen Elizabeth to follow suit and give a chance to the ageing Charles before he withers on the vine. But like her ministers she has her bum stuck firmly on her seat (throne).
Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.
It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.
I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.
You must be knowingly obtuse here if you really don't see how, for example, bringing in tuition fees in for England and Wales on the back of Scottish MPs, whose constituents aren't really affected by it, is a distortion. Yes, there may be some tiny ripple effects on things like the Barnett formula, but then it's that formula that needs to be readdressed. It's a travesty of a formula anyway, seeing that it gives Scotland far more money than other needy parts of the UK, like Wales and Cornwall.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
No alcohol either.
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
No alcohol either.
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
Are they still trying to get it moved to winter? Or what passes for winter in the gulf
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
Miraculously, the law will be changed for 2 months.
Qatar is copying Dubai in every possible way. I doubt these restrictions are in place even today. Qatar , by ME standards, is quite open. Al-Jazeera is financed by the Emir of Qatar and is only "free" media output in the Middle East.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
No alcohol either.
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
You can drink in the hotels.
I know, but being an England fan, drinking in public is mandatory.
During one of my visits, the local hotel/great Qatari firewall banned PB because of it's UnIslamic content.
Glen Oglaza @glenoglaza1 3m #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
No alcohol either.
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
Are they still trying to get it moved to winter? Or what passes for winter in the gulf
David Wyllie @journodave · 4 mins Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Hmmmm hope they're not invading the rock....
Capital controls?
Nah: Spanish banks are now among the best capitalised in Europe, and one of the rating agencies just upgraded Spain today. Spain now borrows at the lowest rates in its history (lower than pre-Eurozone crisis).
I know it's unlikely, but just a thought. And those borrowing rates would change pretty quickly if Spain announced it was leaving the Eurozone. Which it should do, lest it wait a quarter century to get back to decent employment levels.
PS. I'm amused someone as knowledgeable as yourself still think the views of the rating agencies are worth anything at all.
Lets have a new thread. Now King Juan Carlos has abdicated, it would be a good idea for our Queen Elizabeth to follow suit and give a chance to the ageing Charles before he withers on the vine. But like her ministers she has her bum stuck firmly on her seat (throne).
Treachery from a kipper following the EU monarchies and not the true British nature of monarchy.
The Queen is older, but she's not planning on abdicating.
If Juan Carlos is going because of age, we'll probably see a few people saying the Queen should do the same.
However, if that's the sole reason, the natural thing to do would have been to make the announcement on or for a significant date - his 75th birthday, the 40th anniversary of his taking the throne. That's just the way people tend to work, unless there's some reason they can't wait.
HM The Queen will not abdicate. She regards abdication within our constitutional monarchy as a fundamental breach of her Coronation Oath.
Ill health may open the possibility of Charles acting as Regent as his predecessor did for his father George III and as in that case the Prince of Wales will only become monarch on the death of the incumbent.
Absolutely correct my Lord JackW. Of course the same considerations may not apply to Harald V (77) and Margrethe II (74) and to a lesser extent Carl XVI Gustaf (68).
Comments
You may ask why Helmer then stood for re-election as an MEP. The answer is simple. He can retire at any time during the term and be replaced by the next candidate on UKIP's regional list.
The Newark by election is a grandad vs. grandchild decision.
The future has it. The future has it.
A very interesting article. Some people point out that Thatcher was behind in the ratings against Callaghan 34 year ago but these days we do have a more Presidential emphasis on the Leader than in 1979.
The hypothesis is sound.
We just need to work on the proof.
Don't worry, Steve. With all the expertise on PB, your hypothesis will soon be proved. We will then be able to add it to the holy roll of PB Golden Rules.
Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.
Hmmmm hope they're not invading the rock....
New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 32 (-2); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (-1); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140602
It's not legitimate to deny the vast majority of Britons the same degree of autonomy that everywhere else has. Why should Scots get devolution *and* a say over English matters? The destabilising factor was Labour's stupid and unnecessary devolution in Scotland and Wales, not the future possibility of finally giving the English a level playing field.
Ed Miliband off the Telly, Labour VI rises.
• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in May (Flash Estimate 52.5)
• Output growth slows in all nations except the Netherlands: new orders fall in France
• Selling prices rise for first time in three months.
UK to follow.
Does the EU (rather than the ECHR) have any influence on criminal law in the UK? Is anything criminal in the UK as a result of an EU ruling?
If you want to see the Acts of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, you can look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Acts_of_the_Parliament_of_the_United_Kingdom,_2000–present#Public_Acts_15
Remarkably few of them *originate* in Brussels. (Of the eight Acts, that either passed approval of the Houses of Commons, or which received Royal assent so far in 2014, only one - "European Union (Approvals) Act 2014" is EU related.) However, that does not mean they are not influenced by Brussels, nor that there are not articles in those Acts that are not required as part of our membership of the EU. Nor does this cover the amount of law in a single Act.
If I were to guess I would say that 100% of trade regulation originates in Brussels, 90+% of product regulation legislation, 80+% of competition law, 35% of financial regulation, and 5% or less of everything else (criminal law, etc.).
The great british public have already spoken:-
http://order-order.com/2014/05/28/watch-ed-miliband-meets-the-public-round-2/
Weird Ed is , well...weird.
And once somebody becomes a public laughing stock...
What it would say about the German government's plans would depend on when they leaked it. It certainly looks like they _were_ planning to drop him - quite possibly from the moment Merkel first endorsed him as a candidate, since Katainen announced his plan to make himself available for the job he'd just failed to run for shortly after the vote. But then Merkel got a lot of push-back and publicly reversed, so the question is whether she's really planning to go through with the reversal or whether she's now trying to clear the way to re-reverse...
332 raw UKIP
....
Conservatives 75% 10/10 to vote.
Labour 65%
Next election is going to all about whether Labour can get it's vote out !
Thanks to Fat Steve for the article - not sure it tells us very much. Every Labour leader in my political life going back over 30 years has been mercilessly criticised by the anti-Labour media of which there is a considerable amount.
It's one of the more odious aspects of political reporting that the Labour leader is lambasted for eating a sandwich or for not being married - neither of which has the slightest bearing on his competence or otherwise for being a future Prime Minister.
The anti-Labour media strives to rapidly create the impression that any Labour leader is either stupid, foolish, "not like you", dangerous or a mixture of all of these. Even Tony Blair had the "Phoney Tony" and the "Evil Eyes" and Cherie was always attacked even when she was just doing her job.
Labour leaders suffer far more than Conservative or even Lib Dem leaders since they are an existential threat to the Conservative Party. Realistically, the only other Prime Minister on offer next year is Ed Miliband and the line is that if we can't criticise his policies (which we will), we will criticise him.
I don't have a problem with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister - he would be as constrained as any other Prime Minister in his actions and while some on here simply can't stomach the thought of Labour back in Government, it wouldn't be the end of civilisation as we know it.
http://www.thespainreport.com/7965/king-juan-carlos-spain-abdicate/
Spain's Prime Minister announces King Juan Carlos I to abdicate http://itv.co/1n31bd5
UK Manufacturing May PMI falls but marginally and remains comfortably in positive territory and well above its EU counterparts:
• Manufacturing PMI at 57.0 in May, down slightly from 57.3 in April
• Strong growth of output, new orders and new export business maintained.
• Broad-based jobs creation.
Thank St. George the UK is not being run by HollMilibande!
As it stands it's unclear whether the marginal effect suggested is in consequence of Ted Moribund being himself, or in consequence of his talking about Labour's policies, record, and neuroses.
Suppose for example that every time Ted appeared on TV, it was to stress that every NHS patient should receive a free shit sandwich every day, paid for out of a tax on banker's bonuses. Suppose further that in the wake of each such appearance, Labour's vote share went down.
This result in itself wouldn't prove that Ted was unpopular. It would suggest that Ted and / or the shit sandwich policy was unpopular. To isolate which it was, you'd need to have Ted on TV not talking about Labour stuff (difficult for him obv), and you'd need other Labour figures on, talking about the shit sandwich policy.
Anniesland: Lab 6134 SNP 5161 Greens 1860 Con 1744 UKIP 1655 LD 660 Britain First 136 BNP 121 No2EU 100
Shettleston: Lab 5688 SNP 4292 UKIP 1861 Con 1189 Greens 841 LD 241 BNP 175 Britain First 167 No2EU 97
Provan: Lab 6063 SNP 3893 UKIP 1541 Greens 1025 Con 746 BNP 194 LD 191 Britain First 164 No2EU 81
Southside: SNP 5004 Lab 4919 Greesn 2230 Con 1489 UKIP 1360 LD 458 Britain First 115 BNP 105 No2EU 101
Kelvin: SNP 4817 Lab 4799 Greens 4764 Con 1580 UKIP 1087 LD 930 Britain First 120 BNP 104 No2EU 96
Maryhill/Springburn: Lab 5795 SNP 4333 UKIP 1426 Greens 1256 Con 1054 LD 413 BNP 177 Bristian First 169 No2Eu 95
Pollok: Lab 6472 SNP 4908 UKIP 1864 Con 1096 Green 997 LD 320 Britain First 200 BNP 191 No2EU 133
Cathcart: Lab 5806 SNP 5412 Greens 2386 Con 2087 UKIP 1844 LD 617 Britain First 148 BNP 129 No2EU 126
Italy PMI: 53.2, down slightly from 54.0
France continued to show contraction, although improved marginally: 49.6 from 49.3.
Greece PMI of 51.0 was below April's 51.1
Edit to add: Then cut it a year later.
Populus says it has sampled 2062 random adults.
Does this actually mean truly random, if so no weighting would have to take place.
Or are they picking from people who have signed up to do Populus polling, in which case self selection bias from kippers would need weighting...
Is any internet sample truly random ?
My Mum is a life long Labour voter. She loved Wilson, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock et al. She informs me that Milliband "gives her the creeps". Case closed. Let's talk about something else
The recent Comres poll ( online ) for Sykes , for example had 66% saying they had voted in the Euro elections compared to 35% or so in the population as a whole .
If the weird Ed meme turns into the next Spitting Image David Steele sock puppet, labour lose.
Interesting to see mortgage approvals down, M4 still negative and net lending to individuals reduce too. Takes some of the pressure of interest rate increases. My impression of Carney is that he prefers to talk up the liklihood of something happen, in order to reduce the chance that he actually has to do it.
Only UKIP now wants them hunted.
There appear to be no betting opportunities as the Crown Prince will now succeed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-27648521
(Not that Anthony Wells)
Text from Prince Charles: "The King of Spain is abdicating to let his son have a go. What a nice man" Not replying
'Friends of the Earth has accused the chancellor George Osborne of exacerbating climate change by handing out £2.7bn of incentives to energy companies to fuel North Sea oil and gas production. FoE said he was too focused on propping up oil companies at the expense of making renewable energy cheaper.
David Powell, economics campaigner at FoE, said: "The chancellor falls over himself to claim renewable energy is expensive, while bending over backwards to offer oil barons massive tax breaks.'
Vote Blue, Go Green. Yeah, right!
If Juan Carlos is going because of age, we'll probably see a few people saying the Queen should do the same.
However, if that's the sole reason, the natural thing to do would have been to make the announcement on or for a significant date - his 75th birthday, the 40th anniversary of his taking the throne. That's just the way people tend to work, unless there's some reason they can't wait.
I wonder how many kingdoms and principalities we still have in Europe.
Obviously there's us, the Spanish, the Dutch, Norway (I think), Liechtenstein and Monaco... where else?
Mr. Rentool, are you trying to make me like Osborne?
Next Prime Minister!
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.
I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.
Work on the stadia has been plagued with rumours that unions have been suppressed, worker wages withheld and the entire world is enslaved by the threat of an enormous death ray.
Ruler Ming The Merciless said: “Our bid was the most competitive and we’re confident that the Hawkmen will be utterly crushed before the opening ceremony.
“I think the last thing anyone wants is Brian Blessed shouting abuse at the dancers and shitting on Pele from a height of 300 feet.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/2026-mongo-world-cup-triggers-controversy-2014060287120
Mr. Eagles, that's rather good.
#worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !
Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
#Newark
Why do you write such garbage ?
Ill health may open the possibility of Charles acting as Regent as his predecessor did for his father George III and as in that case the Prince of Wales will only become monarch on the death of the incumbent.
Now King Juan Carlos has abdicated, it would be a good idea for our Queen Elizabeth to follow suit and give a chance to the ageing Charles before he withers on the vine. But like her ministers she has her bum stuck firmly on her seat (throne).
Qatar is copying Dubai in every possible way. I doubt these restrictions are in place even today. Qatar , by ME standards, is quite open. Al-Jazeera is financed by the Emir of Qatar and is only "free" media output in the Middle East.
Of course, everything is relative.
During one of my visits, the local hotel/great Qatari firewall banned PB because of it's UnIslamic content.
PS. I'm amused someone as knowledgeable as yourself still think the views of the rating agencies are worth anything at all.
Burn the Ukip traitor !!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing personal you understand.