It has nothing to do with "whining" or the lead that Cameron enjoyed in the polls or the respective strategies of the parties but simply the in built bias enjoyed by Labour at certain levels of support with FPTP - Cameron outpolled Blair's 2005 % score but rather than having a comfortable majority Cameron leads a Coalition government.
It's quite extraordinary, Jack, that the Tories have done nothing about this. Do you think DC knows?
It has nothing to do with "whining" or the lead that Cameron enjoyed in the polls or the respective strategies of the parties but simply the in built bias enjoyed by Labour at certain levels of support with FPTP - Cameron outpolled Blair's 2005 % score but rather than having a comfortable majority Cameron leads a Coalition government.
But it is whining. You're like a tennis player who gets to deuce on his serve, but lacks the ability to close out a game and win the match. His opponent holds to love.
The rules of FPTP could not be clearer. The reason Labour are better at it is no accident. They took a situation where THEY "couldn't win" and changed. It's not bias, it's strategy ( or lack thereof) and the ability to make the final step.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
Problem is EdM doesn't actually know what he or his party stands for. He's very much the son of Brown in that he wants power for labour (and himself), but has no idea what to do with it.
I find EdM a strange creature - he's clearly ambitious and tells us endlessly that he has a vision, but like Gordon isn't telling us what it actually is and keeps saying he'll tell us and then doesn't.
It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards, objecting to everything whilst sort of agreeing with it, saying he'll stand up to things then reversing his position - and he's got Balls chained to him.
I think the Tories allowed the issue to drift for far too long, but they're grasping the nettle now - and the sooner the better in my book.
TBH, Labour has a much bigger issue on its hands by a long chalk, EdM said only a few weeks ago that he was against a referendum at all...
I agree. But Brogan rightly nails the problem at the door of Cameron. Trying to get his party on board through megaphone diplomacy just will not work out. Alas he looks doomed to keep repeating this mistake.
Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
Problem is EdM doesn't actually know what he or his party stands for. He's very much the son of Brown in that he wants power for labour (and himself), but has no idea what to do with it.
Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
Problem is EdM doesn't actually know what he or his party stands for. He's very much the son of Brown in that he wants power for labour (and himself), but has no idea what to do with it.
It is still far too early for Labour to have policies. There are two years until a general election, so why take pressure off the government, especially when it is in self-destruct mode?
Just sort out the frisson between the left and right of the party then repeatedly hammer home how incompetent the govt is. That should be the sum total of the strategy for the next year.
It being Hodges means likely not since Hodges is an idiot and only ever happens on things by complete accident. The irony is little Ed could easily match Cammie's conditional cast iron referendum pledge since it so easily wriggled out, delayed indefinitely and worth so little.
Ed Miliband will not offer a referendum now, because he told us as recently as Saturday that it was wrong now. He can't go through a 180 degree turn quite that quickly.
Labour should abstain on the vote and do so explicitly on the basis that the vote is meaningless and demonstrates how dysfunctional the Conservative party is, "so we're going to play no part in it". I'm surprised that Ed Miliband is supposed to have decided to vote against. This is a perfect opportunity for mischief-making.
It has nothing to do with "whining" or the lead that Cameron enjoyed in the polls or the respective strategies of the parties but simply the in built bias enjoyed by Labour at certain levels of support with FPTP - Cameron outpolled Blair's 2005 % score but rather than having a comfortable majority Cameron leads a Coalition government.
It's quite extraordinary, Jack, that the Tories have done nothing about this. Do you think DC knows?
Perhaps you should tell him.
Especially extraordinary when the Cameroons probably always expected and wanted a coalition with the LibDems.
And electoral reform being the LibDem's biggest issue.
You might have thought that Cameron and Osborne would have given the issue a little thought before the election and looked for a reform which would have helped both the Conservatives and LibDems.
I find EdM a strange creature - he's clearly ambitious and tells us endlessly that he has a vision, but like Gordon isn't telling us what it actually is and keeps saying he'll tell us and then doesn't. It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards..
I have trouble understanding what EdM is saying due to his awful diction. He just sounds like he is either underwater or has a mouth full of sweets.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
I find EdM a strange creature - he's clearly ambitious and tells us endlessly that he has a vision, but like Gordon isn't telling us what it actually is and keeps saying he'll tell us and then doesn't. It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards..
I have trouble understanding what EdM is saying due to his awful diction. He just sounds like he is either underwater or has a mouth full of sweets.
Zzzzzz. He speaks perfectly clearly, as you know, you may not like his accent/voice, but don't be childish.
The idea that this country doesn't have a natural majority for a small c conservative party (that doesn't look like it's just the political wing of the City) might get tested soon enough.
I think the Tories allowed the issue to drift for far too long, but they're grasping the nettle now - and the sooner the better in my book.
TBH, Labour has a much bigger issue on its hands by a long chalk, EdM said only a few weeks ago that he was against a referendum at all...
I agree. But Brogan rightly nails the problem at the door of Cameron. Trying to get his party on board through megaphone diplomacy just will not work out. Alas he looks doomed to keep repeating this mistake.
Whilst I think Cameron is a decent bloke - I suspect he's too removed from the frontline and didn't *get* the unhappiness/thought it could be talked away.
I've seen many senior managers do exactly this - they think the *problem* can be *managed* rather than dealt with. And it festers until it gets too big to ignore or stall over.
The same goes for greenie stuff re AGW - there's one thing for a leader to be resolute in the face of opposition, and another for a leader to appear disconnected from his own side.
I recall the first time it happened to me - I was so full of my own zeal, supported by my own supporters than one day I turned around and discovered that I was driving a bus with a lot of empty seats. I had to go back and convince them to get back on board - Cameron needs to do the same.
Publishing EU Ref Bill is very, very good news. Eurosceps sld focus on helping this piece of govt legis become law
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 1h How to unite? A. Don't divide on QS. B. All row in behind whoever wins Private Members Ballot to put EU Ref Bill to vote
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 1h Can't wait to put in for Private Members Ballot today. Now we have draft EU Ref Bill, ALL Tory MPs sld do likewise - and unite behind it.
"But it is whining. You're like a tennis player who gets to deuce on his serve, but lacks the ability to close out a game and win the match. His opponent holds to love."
Labour is the tennis player that gets to deuce and wins the game whereas the Tories have to get to advantage and win the next two points to notch up the same game.
The electoral numbers are irrefutable - I wonder that you persist in denying them ?!?
The Kippers are very unhappy at the DT - Boris, Hannan and now Carswell are telling them that they aren't defecting, are happy with Cameron's move and to get in behind it.
The Angry Mob are in full throat after feeling vindicated by the LE vote.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
I've seen many senior managers do exactly this - they think the *problem* can be *managed* rather than dealt with. And it festers until it gets too big to ignore or stall over..... I recall the first time it happened to me - I was so full of my own zeal, supported by my own supporters than one day I turned around and discovered that I was driving a bus with a lot of empty seats. I had to go back and convince them to get back on board - Cameron needs to do the same.
Very true. You have to experience it or actually cause it (blush) to recognise the dangerous mess Cameron is creating. His latest choice of advisors reinforces the problem.
I find EdM a strange creature - he's clearly ambitious and tells us endlessly that he has a vision, but like Gordon isn't telling us what it actually is and keeps saying he'll tell us and then doesn't. It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards..
I have trouble understanding what EdM is saying due to his awful diction. He just sounds like he is either underwater or has a mouth full of sweets.
Zzzzzz. He speaks perfectly clearly, as you know, you may not like his accent/voice, but don't be childish.
" don't be childish"
that would probably carry some weight if it wasn't from the people giving us "toffs" 24/7.
C4 9pm yesterday had the first of 12 parts of a documentary on the unemployed, never to be employed and those who do not want to be employed. The first three parts focus on Scunthorpe (MP Nic Dakin (LAB) maj 2,549).
Scunthorpe is home to TATA's second iron and steel works in the UK and makes mainly rod and sections (e.g. railway lines). In recent years, as the market for steel has declined by 30% since 2007 (and TATA have just written down £1bn of its European assets), the steel works has had to lay off many of its workers and new jobs are scarce in that town.
SKINT featured an ex-steel worker, his partner (both smoked regularly) and their seven children (a mixture of his, hers and their new baby) all on benefits. He tries hard to maintain and control the family but does resort to the black market and said, "there's nothing to do except feed and breed."
The programme also showed many out of control, idle, male youth (all smoked heavily) - living with despairing single mothers - who do not attend school and are becoming habitual minor criminals with open contempt for the police and courts who seemed unable to control them. They see no reason to attend school/college as there are no local jobs.
Most worryingly, many seemed to lack basic intelligence, as if we have been breeding a sub-standard race of people who were not so evident in the depression of the 1930s (e.g. Jarrow marchers who had self-pride and determination).
The most telling truth came from a girl who openly offered sexual services for small amounts of cash e.g. £10 (and also shoplifted) which she spent on drugs and gambling. When thinking of how to improve her life she said, "the only way is to move away from here."
Historically, (and as seen in Detroit) failed communities were left to die and people moved on to find work. That happens in a lot of the world today - is Britain too small an island for that to happen or have we become too used to indefinite state support which is not available in many of our EU contemporaries?
Reading the thread - righties seem happy, Lefties seem angry that Cam didn't follow the script.
I'm happy to know the Tories are trying to get a manifesto promise on the statute - the hyperbole used to describe this move by the Lefties tells me Cameron has grasped the right nettle. No one will remember the micro-details in a few weeks bar those who'd never vote Tory in a month of Sundays.
Toby Young and a few PB Tories you mean -the people who always get everything wrong. While the rest of the right launches into Camerons joke leadership
Wrong?? Are you saying they were wrong to wet themselves over the flounce that wasn't? That their skipping glee over Cammie's EU speech of a lifetime stands in somewhat stark contrast to the current delight of Farage and the kippers as Cammie handed them their polling surge on a plate, while Cammie presides over the tory party running around like headless chickens which all but the most loyal Cameroons know to be true? Golly! ;^ )
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
Or, perhaps even more radically we might opt for an electoral system that actually reflects support around the nation for respective parties rather than a buggins turn cum semi fraudulent scam we enjoy presently ??
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
I'm surprised that Ed Miliband is supposed to have decided to vote against. This is a perfect opportunity for mischief-making.
Playing politics with a subject of considerable interest to the voters? Really? I would suggest that is exactly what is not required from a guy still struggling to establish credibility on taking the hard decisions required to run the country, nearly three years into the job.
Perhaps he should make some mischief on how he would run the economy too? You know - Labour's plans for fixing the economy that Labour broke. Been bugger all else from him about it, so he may as well have a bit of a laugh, eh?
@iainmartin1: Early referendum a huge moment for Miliband. Split govt, prove he has guts and build/lead some kind of alliance around staying in EU
He is going to fluff it
EdM said he was against a referendum AT ALL only a few weeks ago - is he going to volte face now? I doubt it - and if he does, what damage does it cause his credibility?
Changing your tune that much doesn't come with zero cost.
@DPJHodges: However bad things seem for Cameron, it will mean nothing if Labour doesn't exploit the moment.
Which he is unlikely to do
Hodges get's it wrong as usual. It's not a question of exploiting the chaos it's stopping the rot. The kipper bandwagon is rolling down the hill and gathering speed with every big poll number they get. It's turning them into a very attractive protest vehicle for more than upset tories and little Ed is powerless to stop it. That means the labour lead could get even smaller as more disgruntled voters join in the protest. (which although the tories seem oblivious to it right now, is about far more than Europe) The reason there won't be the same kind of panic from little Ed right now is that it's still FPTP but those smaller leads are going to get noticed by more than Hodges if they keep up.
Cameron has not handled the latest Euro-tizz well; he should not have sent 'signals' prior to the local elections that he might be sympathetic to the introduction of paving legislation for the referendum before the election, and then resiled from it, only seemingly to again support it. It has only served to play into the hands of the Barmy Boneheads and Bovine Barons within the party.
But as essentially this is a matter of process rather than substantive policy (that was decided by the January referendum commitment), then the damage could be shortlived - we need next week's polls to ascertain the wider electoral impact of 'divided parties lose votes' - but if the revolutionary defeatist wing of Tory MPs wish to commit electoral suicide, then there ain't a lot that can be done to stop them, except massive peer pressure. In that regard, the remarks by Douglas Carswell may partially lift the gloom.
@JohnRentoul: Lot of people who should know better urging EdM to strike by supporting EU referendum. On what spurious grounds could he change his mind?
Whilst I think Cameron is a decent bloke - I suspect he's too removed from the frontline and didn't *get* the unhappiness/thought it could be talked away.
Most Prime Ministers end up like this, and only when challengers to their leadership emerge do we read of them "touring the tea rooms" to meet backbenchers, but David Cameron started off like this.
One political journalist (sorry, don't recall who) in 2009 compared the Conservative conference with Labour in 1996. Labour's had Blair and the shadow cabinet on the conference floor and visiting fringe events. Labour gave the impression of a party preparing for power, whereas the Conservatives had an elite couple of dozen preparing for power and desperately hoping the rest of the party did not mess it up for them.
Just as New Labour were socially isolated from their supporters, so are the Cameroons. The difference is that at least the Blairites knew it.
Red will never come out for a referendum as then he would have to hold one.
Not if he repeated Cammie's cast iron referendum pledge which is entirely conditional and very easily wriggled out of or postponed indefinitely. Hence the tory rebels finally noticing to their somewhat obvious displeasure.
Euroholic (n.) - one who is intoxicated with and/or addicted to the notion of ever-closer and ever-deeper union of one's country with its European neighbours and who cannot accept arguments to the contrary, often branding opponents as "extreme" or "racist" or "xenophobic" or even just "stupid". A Euroholic is often heard repeating the mantra "My EU right or wrong!".
Red will never come out for a referendum as then he would have to hold one.
Not if he repeated Cammie's cast iron referendum pledge which is entirely conditional and very easily wriggled out of or postponed indefinitely. Hence the tory rebels finally noticing to their somewhat obvious displeasure.
That would work out well for him as PM I'd imagine - the combined forces of blue and purple and the media pouring effluent over his head for 5 years.
He's better off battening down the hatches and praying for 34.6% or whatever he needs.
Why should Nick Clegg allow time for the barking section of the parliamentary Tory party, mostly the same deranged element that scuppered HoL reform, opposed AV and thereby shot themselves in the foot over boundary changes that would have benefited their own party?
Because the Tories are in government now. European elections are a great cost-free opportunity to stick it to a government (even a relatively popular one, as Blair's was in 1999), or for that matter, all the parties of government.
They’ve won lots of council sea[ts] and they now need to perform as elected representatives
I don't really accept that. This is from the Lib Dems manual to winning elections, which is a valid strategy but not the only one. UKIP gained seats at the council elections not because they were a national collective of marvellous local indepent-ish community activists with because of their national brand overriding local considerations. Clearly, having a good local councillor will help, just as a poor one will hinder but as was pointed out at the time, the UKIP councillor base is still pretty low in the big scheme of things. Has the UKIP brand been tainted by the problems they've had with their MEP base? Individuals just don't matter that much at Euro-elections.
The value bets on UKIP to my mind are on the up-side. How high will their share of the vote go? 30%? 35%? More? They've proven an ability to register a good 20%+ in by-elections and now council elections. Their GE VI is climbing to levels that imply even higher in low-turnout elections (given the relative motivation of their support), and the perfect storm of conditions that the Euroelection offers should see them take well over a quarter of the vote. Will it be over a third? It might well be.
One other point that may be pertinent to Mike's assertions: the impact of the criticism will depend on who makes it and how. If it's to be led by The Guardian, Independent and BBC, it may have the effect of strengthening UKIP support given how different issues are seen. At the same time, right-leaning papers may be reluctant to diss UKIP too much if they are at all inclined to endorse them for 2015. The big question there is The Sun. Traditionally, it's gone with 'the country' i.e. picked the winner, however I don't see any possibility of it endorsing Miliband so if Cameron and Clegg are out of the game, it could go with its readers' instincts and back Farage.
@tim - As I've just said, the squabble is more about process and thus could be relatively short-lived and thus not of huge longer-term consequence. We shall see. As for my predictions in January, I would imagine they were nuanced and arguing on the balance of probablities as my comments on here usually are. For good or ill, I have 'done' aactive electoral politics for well over 30 years and have learnt that not much is definitive. Perhaps that's why I also make money, not least from you.
Red will never come out for a referendum as then he would have to hold one.
Not if he repeated Cammie's cast iron referendum pledge which is entirely conditional and very easily wriggled out of or postponed indefinitely. Hence the tory rebels finally noticing to their somewhat obvious displeasure.
That would work out well for him as PM I'd imagine - the combined forces of blue and purple and the media pouring effluent over his head for 5 years.
Like after Lisbon you mean? I don't recall that bringing down the government.
The only real difference if little Ed backed Cammie's pledge is that Cammie needs the back up plan of the referendum on a referendum should he win. When there is no renegotiation he can just repeat that without it IN/OUT would be a "false choice" and then go for the mandate referendum. Thus keeping his backbenchers onside as they get an EU referendum even if it is an entirely pointless one.
I find EdM a strange creature - he's clearly ambitious and tells us endlessly that he has a vision, but like Gordon isn't telling us what it actually is and keeps saying he'll tell us and then doesn't. It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards..
I have trouble understanding what EdM is saying due to his awful diction. He just sounds like he is either underwater or has a mouth full of sweets.
Zzzzzz. He speaks perfectly clearly, as you know, you may not like his accent/voice, but don't be childish.
" don't be childish"
that would probably carry some weight if it wasn't from the people giving us "toffs" 24/7.
Sir – either cite a single post of mine where I use that epithet or retract...
Couple of observations on the whole EU / UKIP thing:
1. Tory leaders seem terribly prone to causing themselves endless grief with EU issues. But the grief ALWAYS ALWAYS comes from them being at the wet end of the spectrum. A genuinely felt deep Euroscepticism and acting accordingly would avoid most of this grief. Dave should have stood by his referendum promise, even if Lisbon was already ratified. He should know that Brussels cannot be negotiated with. He should know that UK interests are not their priority. Historically it was obvious that joining the ERM was nuts. The Tories will move beyond EU grief when they elect themselves a proper 'anti' as leader and one who really genuinely wants to have the referendum.
2. The BBC is exposed. This recent rather explosive poll with UKIP way outpolling the Yellow Peril shows that EUsceptic, small government, low tax, middle England common sense, anti PC, anti nannying politics is getting a clear majority of the vote. Lefties getties only a little over 1/3. The middle ground is further right than they are and getting further away from them. As a supposed neutral in political reporting and discourse, the BBC runs a great risk of its institutionally left wing culture becoming more visibly incompatible with its obligations. Let's see how issues like Farage at leader debates, the referendum, etc get dealt with. Auntie may find herself unpopular if she ain't careful - and that is dangerous for her internally in an age where her funding model is not sustainable.
Red will never come out for a referendum as then he would have to hold one.
Not if he repeated Cammie's cast iron referendum pledge which is entirely conditional and very easily wriggled out of or postponed indefinitely. Hence the tory rebels finally noticing to their somewhat obvious displeasure.
That would work out well for him as PM I'd imagine - the combined forces of blue and purple and the media pouring effluent over his head for 5 years.
Like after Lisbon you mean? I don't recall that bringing down the government.
The only real difference if little Ed back Cammie's pledge is that Cammie needs the back up plan of the referendum on a referendum should he win. When there is no renegotiation he can just repeat that without it IN/OUT would be a "false choice" and then go for the mandate referendum. Thus keeping his backbenchers onside as they get an EU referendum even if it is an entirely pointless one.
P0rk - its all irrelevant - rEd will not go for it - I'd put it at less than 0.1%.
Questions will now be will how will Ken Clarke and Kate Hoey vote ?
"But it is whining. You're like a tennis player who gets to deuce on his serve, but lacks the ability to close out a game and win the match. His opponent holds to love."
Labour is the tennis player that gets to deuce and wins the game whereas the Tories have to get to advantage and win the next two points to notch up the same game.
The electoral numbers are irrefutable - I wonder that you persist in denying them ?!?
Irrefutable in the sense that your theory has been disproved on here time and again by Mike himself.
Tim is spot on with his last comment. The mistake is to feed the crocodile even a titbit.It will never be satisfied. Its a long long time since I felt so depressed politically about my lot.DC should never have given in on this - never in a million years. What it needs is for him to take these people on intellectually -if he can't do it then get Jesse Norman to do it - he most certainly could.Exactly the same with U||KIP.Donl't trim your aisl toward them but expose their half baked santa claus wish list of policies for the rubbish it truly is.
One other point that may be pertinent to Mike's assertions: the impact of the criticism will depend on who makes it and how.
On what rather than how or who would seem to to be even more pertinent. These are still EU elections. They aren't going to be focused on the economy, defence or the NHS. They are gong to be focused on Europe and there is very little chance of Cameron outflanking the Kippers on that issue.
The idea that this country doesn't have a natural majority for a small c conservative party (that doesn't look like it's just the political wing of the City) might get tested soon enough.
Cameron has not performed adroitly on this. But he's head and shoulders above anyone else in the Parliamentary party, enjoys overwhemling support from Tory party supporters (as measured week by week in YouGov) and overall is an impressive party leader and PM. He makes mistakes. He gets 'punished' for them. Big deal. 2015 remains there for the winning.
It has nothing to do with "whining" or the lead that Cameron enjoyed in the polls or the respective strategies of the parties but simply the in built bias enjoyed by Labour at certain levels of support with FPTP - Cameron outpolled Blair's 2005 % score but rather than having a comfortable majority Cameron leads a Coalition government.
Boo hoo, Labour voters are more efficient and Labour/Lib Dems more likely to vote tactically against the toxic Tories.
And not only are the Tories very stupid AND fans of FPTP, they blew their chance at boundary changes through incompetence and rebellion.
Tough. Live with it.
The boundary changes were lost because the Lib Dems are duplicitous liars who reneged on a cast iron promise.
All because they threw their toys out of the pram when everyone sane pointed out the obvious fact that a single 15 year fixed term for an elected peer was the worst plan ever conceived of by anynoe, anywhere, ever, by a long way.
But as usual you feel free to think what you want...
Mandelsons admission that Labours immigration policy has cost British people their jobs is evidence of what I have been saying on here for months, and why Labour will lose/are losing votes to UKIP
Many 'Old' Labour voters, the kind tim would call thick racists, who would never vote Tory but have nothing in common with Marxism or pro immigration agendas, had nowhere to go for years. Some may have voted BNP, some stuck with Labour, others didnt vote at all.
I know plenty of these people, they exist. They are not racist, hence the BNP never getting support in the way UKIP is now. Now they have someone who is looking out for them
Relentless stats "proving" how much better the country is as a result of mass immigration are insignificant in this debate. People who have left the area they called home, lost their jobs or seen a marked decrease in wages as a result of mass immigration arent all going to keep voting Labour just because the kids of immigrants are more intelligent than their own, and the schools where their children dont go, but would have done if they hadnt moved, are all of a sudden so great. Why would that be attractive to them?! If anything it winds them up.
"But it is whining. You're like a tennis player who gets to deuce on his serve, but lacks the ability to close out a game and win the match. His opponent holds to love."
Labour is the tennis player that gets to deuce and wins the game whereas the Tories have to get to advantage and win the next two points to notch up the same game.
The electoral numbers are irrefutable - I wonder that you persist in denying them ?!?
Irrefutable in the sense that your theory has been disproved on here time and again by Mike himself.
Instead of just quoting Mike (has he disproved it??) why don't you gather the numbers and advise all of PB why my theory is incorrect ??
Tim is spot on with his last comment. The mistake is to feed the crocodile even a titbit.It will never be satisfied. Its a long long time since I felt so depressed politically about my lot.DC should never have given in on this - never in a million years. What it needs is for him to take these people on intellectually -if he can't do it then get Jesse Norman to do it - he most certainly could.Exactly the same with U||KIP.Donl't trim your aisl toward them but expose their half baked santa claus wish list of policies for the rubbish it truly is.
I disagree wholeheartedly - I'm not a BOOer or a Kipper but for a leader *to never give in* is wrong when c50% of the population and most of your own side want a say. At what point is a leader listening to his own team if not this?
There's nothing smart about losing the dressing room on principle.
Mr Carswell has his say
"Thank you, Prime Minister. That'll do
"What would David Cameron have to do in this Parliament" a journalist asked me "for you Eurosceptics to say "Yes, that'll do, thanks?"
For several years, I have been agitating for the Prime Minister to offer an In / Out referendum. He's now offering one. Cameron deserves much more credit for being the first Prime Minister in a generation to offer us the chance to vote to quit the EU. Not even Mrs Thatcher came anywhere close!
So, I can tick that off my list.
I have also been pressing for the legislation to be enacted in this Parliament. Yesterday the government published the EU referendum Bill. To be sure, the Bill cannot be brought in in government time without Mr Clegg's say so. But the chance to engineer a vote on it is now ours for the making.
Again, tick.
As a member of Better Off Out, who has been campaigning for an In / Out referendum, I feel I can now say "Yes. Thanks, Prime Minister. On matters Europe, that's what I wanted".
Having woken up to the UKIP insurgency, many in SW1 want to respond by beefing up policy. I am happy to beef up all sorts of policy. I even wrote a book about it. But if we want to win back support outside Westminster, the thing that needs beefing up most of all is our plausibility – and not merely on matters European.
I know that many colleagues in the Commons read this blog. Here's what we should do to beef up our plausibility on the Europe question:
Put your name in the Private Members Ballot today. If you win, announce you will be taking up the government's own EU Referendum Bill. The whips will be helpful. Throw all your energy into securing a second reading division of the House on it. The whips and all your colleagues will be behind you - as will the country.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
Or, perhaps even more radically we might opt for an electoral system that actually reflects support around the nation for respective parties rather than a buggins turn cum semi fraudulent scam we enjoy presently ??
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
Well, quite - you and I have the luxury of aiming for that ideal (I agree with you on its desirability) but that's not really the same point as Cameron's complete failure to understand the constraints of the game he volunteered to play, or to prioritise changing the rules so that it would be a better fit for what he wants to play.
Tim is spot on with his last comment. The mistake is to feed the crocodile even a titbit.It will never be satisfied.
The problem for tory Eurosceptics is that they were so busy saying that the EU had one direction of travel towards greater political union they forgot that their Euroscepticism also had one direction of travel towards full blown OUT. Not all Eurosceptics are BOOers and the ones who aren't are going to have severe trouble dealing with the kippers. Particularly with a tory leadership that favours staying IN. It's far too late to turn on the BOOers now. The time for drawing that line has long since passed.
On topic - thanks for the hat-tip, Mike. It is of course a somewhat speculative bet. It's worth repeating the observation I made at the time that the odds on who would come first are not consistent with the other Ladbrokes market on the Con vs UKIP vote share, which has the parties much closer than the first-place market implies (5/4 Con, 4/7 UKIP).
As to the latest developments in the daily soap opera of Conservative EU manoeuverings, Cameron's move is certainly odd. I'm not sure it's sudden panic, though - the remarks by Gove and Hammond at the weekend suggest it's coordinated panic. If so, it's not clear that makes it any better.
On Labour's response, I don't understand the argument that Ed M should follow suit and also play to the Europhobe/UKIP agenda. Surely it would just look like me-too politics or a cynical manouevre or both? Inasmuch as Cameron is making that mistake (if he is), it would be eccentric of Ed M to copy it. Antifrank's suggestion that Labour should abstain on the grounds that it a childish distraction with no practical effect looks the smartest idea from Labour's point of view.
The medium term implications of all this hoo-ha are hard to predict at the moment. Objectively, being in a place where the Conservatives are the only party offering a realistic prospect of a referendum is not a bad position, but reason seems to have departed the political scene for the moment. Will it return?
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
Or, perhaps even more radically we might opt for an electoral system that actually reflects support around the nation for respective parties rather than a buggins turn cum semi fraudulent scam we enjoy presently ??
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
Well, quite - you and I have the luxury of aiming for that ideal (I agree with you on its desirability) but that's not really the same point as Cameron's complete failure to understand the constraints of the game he volunteered to play, or to prioritise changing the rules so that it would be a better fit for what he wants to play.
In reality there is little Cameron could do short of gerrymandering the boundaries. Now there's a thought !!
I used to think it was a waste of the extremely competent William Hague having him as Foreign Secretary but his appearance on Today at 8.10 once again proved why I was wrong. Without his calm assurance and remarkable ability to get results in Europe this squall would be a full blown hurricane threatening the very existence of the Coalition and the future of the Conservative party.
As it is I don't think it really interests the general public all that much which is why I am far from sure that OGH is right about this bet. If the Euros were today who could seriously doubt that UKIP would come first, Labour second and tories third with the Lib Dems in a desperate battle for fourth place with the Greens?
As they are still some time way off OGH is betting on a recovery and a pricking of the UKIP bubble in the interim. That may well happen but even if it does it is unlikely to be reflected in absurd Euro elections which no one in this country takes even vaguely seriously. They are an opportunity to protest against our rulers and we will take it with our usual gusto. Even Hague is unlikely to be able to talk enough people around to make that difference. My guess is that Labour will win, UKIP second and tories third with UKIP and the tories being close.
One political journalist (sorry, don't recall who) in 2009 compared the Conservative conference with Labour in 1996. Labour's had Blair and the shadow cabinet on the conference floor and visiting fringe events. Labour gave the impression of a party preparing for power, whereas the Conservatives had an elite couple of dozen preparing for power and desperately hoping the rest of the party did not mess it up for them.
To be fair, recent events suggest the elite's analysis was spot-on in that respect.
On topic - thanks for the hat-tip, Mike. It is of course a somewhat speculative bet. It's worth repeating the observation I made at the time that the odds on who would come first are not consistent with the other Ladbrokes market on the Con vs UKIP vote share, which has the parties much closer than the first-place market implies (5/4 Con, 4/7 UKIP).
As to the latest developments in the daily soap opera of Conservative EU manoeuverings, Cameron's move is certainly odd. I'm not sure it's sudden panic, though - the remarks by Gove and Hammond at the weekend suggest it's coordinated panic. If so, it's not clear that makes it any better.
On Labour's response, I don't understand the argument that Ed M should follow suit and also play to the Europhobe/UKIP agenda. Surely it would just look like me-too politics or a cynical manouevre or both? Inasmuch as Cameron is making that mistake (if he is), it would be eccentric of Ed M to copy it. Antifrank's suggestion of Labour abstaining on the grounds that it a childish distraction with no practical effect looks the smartest idea from Labour's point of view.
The medium term implications of all this hoo-ha are hard to predict at the moment. Objectively, being in a place where the Conservatives are the only party offering a realistic prospect of a referendum is not a bad position, but reason seems to have departed the political scene for the moment. Will it return?
Richard - I think Cam was holding up a small font pamphlet on the referendum to a passing motorway.
He's now upgraded to a sandwich board saying "yes to a referendum".
Obviously it's not the neon arrow saying "next exit" that the headbangers want - but it's an improvement.
Mandelsons admission that Labours immigration policy has cost British people their jobs is evidence of what I have been saying on here for months, and why Labour will lose/are losing votes to UKIP
Many 'Old' Labour voters, the kind tim would call thick racists, who would never vote Tory but have nothing in common with Marxism or pro immigration agendas, had nowhere to go for years. Some may have voted BNP, some stuck with Labour, others didnt vote at all.
I know plenty of these people, they exist. They are not racist, hence the BNP never getting support in the way UKIP is now. Now they have someone who is looking out for them
Relentless stats "proving" how much better the country is as a result of mass immigration are insignificant in this debate. People who have left the area they called home, lost their jobs or seen a marked decrease in wages as a result of mass immigration arent all going to keep voting Labour just because the kids of immigrants are more intelligent than their own, and the schools where their children dont go, but would have done if they hadnt moved, are all of a sudden so great. Why would that be attractive to them?! If anything it winds them up.
I have to say Sam I've been bemused as Labourites defend the interests of multi nationals and trash local communities.
"What would David Cameron have to do in this Parliament" a journalist asked me "for you Eurosceptics to say "Yes, that'll do, thanks?"
For several years, I have been agitating for the Prime Minister to offer an In / Out referendum. He's now offering one. Cameron deserves much more credit for being the first Prime Minister in a generation to offer us the chance to vote to quit the EU. Not even Mrs Thatcher came anywhere close!
So, I can tick that off my list.
I have also been pressing for the legislation to be enacted in this Parliament. Yesterday the government published the EU referendum Bill. To be sure, the Bill cannot be brought in in government time without Mr Clegg's say so. But the chance to engineer a vote on it is now ours for the making.
Again, tick.
As a member of Better Off Out, who has been campaigning for an In / Out referendum, I feel I can now say "Yes. Thanks, Prime Minister. On matters Europe, that's what I wanted".
Having woken up to the UKIP insurgency, many in SW1 want to respond by beefing up policy. I am happy to beef up all sorts of policy. I even wrote a book about it. But if we want to win back support outside Westminster, the thing that needs beefing up most of all is our plausibility – and not merely on matters European.
I know that many colleagues in the Commons read this blog. Here's what we should do to beef up our plausibility on the Europe question:
Put your name in the Private Members Ballot today. If you win, announce you will be taking up the government's own EU Referendum Bill. The whips will be helpful. Throw all your energy into securing a second reading division of the House on it. The whips and all your colleagues will be behind you - as will the country. Will Ed Miliband? That is the question."
Beware of voting UKIP , you don't know what you are getting . Eric Kitson newly elected CC for Stourport in Worcestershire is facing expulsion from his party and police prosecution for inciting racial hatred against muslims and jews on his facebook site . See worcesternews.co.uk .
Beware of voting UKIP , you don't know what you are getting . Eric Kitson newly elected CC for Stourport in Worcestershire is facing expulsion from his party and police prosecution for inciting racial hatred against muslims and jews on his facebook site . See worcesternews.co.uk .
seriously that's the best you can do ? You don't think there might be some interesting LD councillors ?
Mandelsons admission that Labours immigration policy has cost British people their jobs is evidence of what I have been saying on here for months, and why Labour will lose/are losing votes to UKIP
Many 'Old' Labour voters, the kind tim would call thick racists, who would never vote Tory but have nothing in common with Marxism or pro immigration agendas, had nowhere to go for years. Some may have voted BNP, some stuck with Labour, others didnt vote at all.
I know plenty of these people, they exist. They are not racist, hence the BNP never getting support in the way UKIP is now. Now they have someone who is looking out for them
Relentless stats "proving" how much better the country is as a result of mass immigration are insignificant in this debate. People who have left the area they called home, lost their jobs or seen a marked decrease in wages as a result of mass immigration arent all going to keep voting Labour just because the kids of immigrants are more intelligent than their own, and the schools where their children dont go, but would have done if they hadnt moved, are all of a sudden so great. Why would that be attractive to them?! If anything it winds them up.
I have to say Sam I've been bemused as Labourites defend the interests of multi nationals and trash local communities.
I always try to imagine how people would feel if it were a section of another country that this had happened to.... if parts of Sri Lanka were majority northern European for instance. How would we feel about the feelings of the former residents of Colombo that now lived on the outskirts because they didnt feel at home in their capital? What if they were voting for a party that listened to their concerns while supporters of the government who introduced the policy told them they were racist xenophobes and that the Europeans were more intelligent and hardworking than them?
@Patrick You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat.#
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
It's come to the tories being a narrow, unelectable clique that will never in fact be able to implement policy in this country or influence its application. Cameron and Osborne are more ambitious and know that as a result they have to reach beyond this clique to a broader section of the community. Hence the detox strategy, the social liberalism, the nods to the green lobby etc etc. Politics eh?
Beware of voting UKIP , you don't know what you are getting . Eric Kitson newly elected CC for Stourport in Worcestershire is facing expulsion from his party and police prosecution for inciting racial hatred against muslims and jews on his facebook site . See worcesternews.co.uk .
You are missing the point.
People did know what they might be getting and thought it was worth the risk
Comments
It's quite extraordinary, Jack, that the Tories have done nothing about this. Do you think DC knows?
Perhaps you should tell him.
The rules of FPTP could not be clearer. The reason Labour are better at it is no accident. They took a situation where THEY "couldn't win" and changed. It's not bias, it's strategy ( or lack thereof) and the ability to make the final step.
Pork : will red follow Hodges advice ?
"It's quite extraordinary, Jack, that the Tories have done nothing about this. Do you think DC knows?
Perhaps you should tell him."
Perhaps we should have an AV referendum .... er ....
It's in every speech full of wibble, the blank sheet of paper 2.5yrs into his leadership - I've no idea where he is taking Labour apart from vaguely leftwards, objecting to everything whilst sort of agreeing with it, saying he'll stand up to things then reversing his position - and he's got Balls chained to him.
How this pans out is anyone's guess.
Just sort out the frisson between the left and right of the party then repeatedly hammer home how incompetent the govt is. That should be the sum total of the strategy for the next year.
Labour should abstain on the vote and do so explicitly on the basis that the vote is meaningless and demonstrates how dysfunctional the Conservative party is, "so we're going to play no part in it". I'm surprised that Ed Miliband is supposed to have decided to vote against. This is a perfect opportunity for mischief-making.
And electoral reform being the LibDem's biggest issue.
You might have thought that Cameron and Osborne would have given the issue a little thought before the election and looked for a reform which would have helped both the Conservatives and LibDems.
But they did nothing and proposed nothing.
What did they spend all their time on ?
Admiring their own 'genius' ?
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Job done.
I've seen many senior managers do exactly this - they think the *problem* can be *managed* rather than dealt with. And it festers until it gets too big to ignore or stall over.
The same goes for greenie stuff re AGW - there's one thing for a leader to be resolute in the face of opposition, and another for a leader to appear disconnected from his own side.
I recall the first time it happened to me - I was so full of my own zeal, supported by my own supporters than one day I turned around and discovered that I was driving a bus with a lot of empty seats. I had to go back and convince them to get back on board - Cameron needs to do the same.
2011 Holyrood election - UKIP - 0.91%
2012 Scottish council elections - UKIP - 0.28%
I think a stout lock and a bucket of cold water should do it.
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 1h
Publishing EU Ref Bill is very, very good news. Eurosceps sld focus on helping this piece of govt legis become law
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 1h
How to unite? A. Don't divide on QS. B. All row in behind whoever wins Private Members Ballot to put EU Ref Bill to vote
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 1h
Can't wait to put in for Private Members Ballot today. Now we have draft EU Ref Bill, ALL Tory MPs sld do likewise - and unite behind it.
@IanDunt: Ukip stealing as much support from Labour as the Tories, poll shows http://bit.ly/ZX4HbC
"But it is whining. You're like a tennis player who gets to deuce on his serve, but lacks the ability to close out a game and win the match. His opponent holds to love."
Labour is the tennis player that gets to deuce and wins the game whereas the Tories have to get to advantage and win the next two points to notch up the same game.
The electoral numbers are irrefutable - I wonder that you persist in denying them ?!?
The Angry Mob are in full throat after feeling vindicated by the LE vote.
Kippers strangely silent - early tee off time today ?
that would probably carry some weight if it wasn't from the people giving us "toffs" 24/7.
SKINT
C4 9pm yesterday had the first of 12 parts of a documentary on the unemployed, never to be employed and those who do not want to be employed. The first three parts focus on Scunthorpe (MP Nic Dakin (LAB) maj 2,549).
Scunthorpe is home to TATA's second iron and steel works in the UK and makes mainly rod and sections (e.g. railway lines). In recent years, as the market for steel has declined by 30% since 2007 (and TATA have just written down £1bn of its European assets), the steel works has had to lay off many of its workers and new jobs are scarce in that town.
SKINT featured an ex-steel worker, his partner (both smoked regularly) and their seven children (a mixture of his, hers and their new baby) all on benefits. He tries hard to maintain and control the family but does resort to the black market and said, "there's nothing to do except feed and breed."
The programme also showed many out of control, idle, male youth (all smoked heavily) - living with despairing single mothers - who do not attend school and are becoming habitual minor criminals with open contempt for the police and courts who seemed unable to control them. They see no reason to attend school/college as there are no local jobs.
Most worryingly, many seemed to lack basic intelligence, as if we have been breeding a sub-standard race of people who were not so evident in the depression of the 1930s (e.g. Jarrow marchers who had self-pride and determination).
The most telling truth came from a girl who openly offered sexual services for small amounts of cash e.g. £10 (and also shoplifted) which she spent on drugs and gambling. When thinking of how to improve her life she said, "the only way is to move away from here."
Historically, (and as seen in Detroit) failed communities were left to die and people moved on to find work. That happens in a lot of the world today - is Britain too small an island for that to happen or have we become too used to indefinite state support which is not available in many of our EU contemporaries?
Which he is unlikely to do
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
He is going to fluff it
http://starwars.com/play/online-activities/crawl-creator/?cs=v6vcp82ed4
As for me - well some small action is better than words - Cam had to show actions that he is serious rqther than jaw jaw - a small step has been made.
Perhaps he should make some mischief on how he would run the economy too? You know - Labour's plans for fixing the economy that Labour broke. Been bugger all else from him about it, so he may as well have a bit of a laugh, eh?
Changing your tune that much doesn't come with zero cost.
But as essentially this is a matter of process rather than substantive policy (that was decided by the January referendum commitment), then the damage could be shortlived - we need next week's polls to ascertain the wider electoral impact of 'divided parties lose votes' - but if the revolutionary defeatist wing of Tory MPs wish to commit electoral suicide, then there ain't a lot that can be done to stop them, except massive peer pressure. In that regard, the remarks by Douglas Carswell may partially lift the gloom.
Which he would lose.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Police Federation chief warns members not to boo Theresa May tomorrow. See @CentralLobby: polho.me/11AAQw3 #fedconf2013
One political journalist (sorry, don't recall who) in 2009 compared the Conservative conference with Labour in 1996. Labour's had Blair and the shadow cabinet on the conference floor and visiting fringe events. Labour gave the impression of a party preparing for power, whereas the Conservatives had an elite couple of dozen preparing for power and desperately hoping the rest of the party did not mess it up for them.
Just as New Labour were socially isolated from their supporters, so are the Cameroons. The difference is that at least the Blairites knew it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myW6iT7LdR4&feature=youtu.be
He's better off battening down the hatches and praying for 34.6% or whatever he needs.
The value bets on UKIP to my mind are on the up-side. How high will their share of the vote go? 30%? 35%? More? They've proven an ability to register a good 20%+ in by-elections and now council elections. Their GE VI is climbing to levels that imply even higher in low-turnout elections (given the relative motivation of their support), and the perfect storm of conditions that the Euroelection offers should see them take well over a quarter of the vote. Will it be over a third? It might well be.
One other point that may be pertinent to Mike's assertions: the impact of the criticism will depend on who makes it and how. If it's to be led by The Guardian, Independent and BBC, it may have the effect of strengthening UKIP support given how different issues are seen. At the same time, right-leaning papers may be reluctant to diss UKIP too much if they are at all inclined to endorse them for 2015. The big question there is The Sun. Traditionally, it's gone with 'the country' i.e. picked the winner, however I don't see any possibility of it endorsing Miliband so if Cameron and Clegg are out of the game, it could go with its readers' instincts and back Farage.
Let the Tories euro-flagellate away to their hearts content and stay well out of it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2323944/Were-Victorians-cleverer-Research-indicates-decline-brainpower-reflex-speed.html
The only real difference if little Ed backed Cammie's pledge is that Cammie needs the back up plan of the referendum on a referendum should he win. When there is no renegotiation he can just repeat that without it IN/OUT would be a "false choice" and then go for the mandate referendum. Thus keeping his backbenchers onside as they get an EU referendum even if it is an entirely pointless one.
1. Tory leaders seem terribly prone to causing themselves endless grief with EU issues. But the grief ALWAYS ALWAYS comes from them being at the wet end of the spectrum. A genuinely felt deep Euroscepticism and acting accordingly would avoid most of this grief. Dave should have stood by his referendum promise, even if Lisbon was already ratified. He should know that Brussels cannot be negotiated with. He should know that UK interests are not their priority. Historically it was obvious that joining the ERM was nuts. The Tories will move beyond EU grief when they elect themselves a proper 'anti' as leader and one who really genuinely wants to have the referendum.
2. The BBC is exposed. This recent rather explosive poll with UKIP way outpolling the Yellow Peril shows that EUsceptic, small government, low tax, middle England common sense, anti PC, anti nannying politics is getting a clear majority of the vote. Lefties getties only a little over 1/3. The middle ground is further right than they are and getting further away from them. As a supposed neutral in political reporting and discourse, the BBC runs a great risk of its institutionally left wing culture becoming more visibly incompatible with its obligations. Let's see how issues like Farage at leader debates, the referendum, etc get dealt with. Auntie may find herself unpopular if she ain't careful - and that is dangerous for her internally in an age where her funding model is not sustainable.
Questions will now be will how will Ken Clarke and Kate Hoey vote ?
Oh...
All because they threw their toys out of the pram when everyone sane pointed out the obvious fact that a single 15 year fixed term for an elected peer was the worst plan ever conceived of by anynoe, anywhere, ever, by a long way.
But as usual you feel free to think what you want...
Many 'Old' Labour voters, the kind tim would call thick racists, who would never vote Tory but have nothing in common with Marxism or pro immigration agendas, had nowhere to go for years. Some may have voted BNP, some stuck with Labour, others didnt vote at all.
I know plenty of these people, they exist. They are not racist, hence the BNP never getting support in the way UKIP is now. Now they have someone who is looking out for them
Relentless stats "proving" how much better the country is as a result of mass immigration are insignificant in this debate. People who have left the area they called home, lost their jobs or seen a marked decrease in wages as a result of mass immigration arent all going to keep voting Labour just because the kids of immigrants are more intelligent than their own, and the schools where their children dont go, but would have done if they hadnt moved, are all of a sudden so great. Why would that be attractive to them?! If anything it winds them up.
No one has yet signed John Mann's ill-advised amendment to the Queen's Speech asking for a referendum on NHS privatisation...
How many amendments/EDMs have gained only a single signature? I'm sure a PBer will know :^ )
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/14/europeans-disillusioned-divided-debt-crisis
There's nothing smart about losing the dressing room on principle.
Mr Carswell has his say
"Thank you, Prime Minister. That'll do
"What would David Cameron have to do in this Parliament" a journalist asked me "for you Eurosceptics to say "Yes, that'll do, thanks?"
For several years, I have been agitating for the Prime Minister to offer an In / Out referendum. He's now offering one. Cameron deserves much more credit for being the first Prime Minister in a generation to offer us the chance to vote to quit the EU. Not even Mrs Thatcher came anywhere close!
So, I can tick that off my list.
I have also been pressing for the legislation to be enacted in this Parliament. Yesterday the government published the EU referendum Bill. To be sure, the Bill cannot be brought in in government time without Mr Clegg's say so. But the chance to engineer a vote on it is now ours for the making.
Again, tick.
As a member of Better Off Out, who has been campaigning for an In / Out referendum, I feel I can now say "Yes. Thanks, Prime Minister. On matters Europe, that's what I wanted".
Having woken up to the UKIP insurgency, many in SW1 want to respond by beefing up policy. I am happy to beef up all sorts of policy. I even wrote a book about it. But if we want to win back support outside Westminster, the thing that needs beefing up most of all is our plausibility – and not merely on matters European.
I know that many colleagues in the Commons read this blog. Here's what we should do to beef up our plausibility on the Europe question:
Put your name in the Private Members Ballot today.
If you win, announce you will be taking up the government's own EU Referendum Bill. The whips will be helpful.
Throw all your energy into securing a second reading division of the House on it. The whips and all your colleagues will be behind you - as will the country.
Will Ed Miliband? That is the question.
You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat. A cuckoo in the Tory nest. That's why support is haemorrhaging.
As to the latest developments in the daily soap opera of Conservative EU manoeuverings, Cameron's move is certainly odd. I'm not sure it's sudden panic, though - the remarks by Gove and Hammond at the weekend suggest it's coordinated panic. If so, it's not clear that makes it any better.
On Labour's response, I don't understand the argument that Ed M should follow suit and also play to the Europhobe/UKIP agenda. Surely it would just look like me-too politics or a cynical manouevre or both? Inasmuch as Cameron is making that mistake (if he is), it would be eccentric of Ed M to copy it. Antifrank's suggestion that Labour should abstain on the grounds that it a childish distraction with no practical effect looks the smartest idea from Labour's point of view.
The medium term implications of all this hoo-ha are hard to predict at the moment. Objectively, being in a place where the Conservatives are the only party offering a realistic prospect of a referendum is not a bad position, but reason seems to have departed the political scene for the moment. Will it return?
As it is I don't think it really interests the general public all that much which is why I am far from sure that OGH is right about this bet. If the Euros were today who could seriously doubt that UKIP would come first, Labour second and tories third with the Lib Dems in a desperate battle for fourth place with the Greens?
As they are still some time way off OGH is betting on a recovery and a pricking of the UKIP bubble in the interim. That may well happen but even if it does it is unlikely to be reflected in absurd Euro elections which no one in this country takes even vaguely seriously. They are an opportunity to protest against our rulers and we will take it with our usual gusto. Even Hague is unlikely to be able to talk enough people around to make that difference. My guess is that Labour will win, UKIP second and tories third with UKIP and the tories being close.
He's now upgraded to a sandwich board saying "yes to a referendum".
Obviously it's not the neon arrow saying "next exit" that the headbangers want - but it's an improvement.
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
"Thank you, Prime Minister. That'll do
"What would David Cameron have to do in this Parliament" a journalist asked me "for you Eurosceptics to say "Yes, that'll do, thanks?"
For several years, I have been agitating for the Prime Minister to offer an In / Out referendum. He's now offering one. Cameron deserves much more credit for being the first Prime Minister in a generation to offer us the chance to vote to quit the EU. Not even Mrs Thatcher came anywhere close!
So, I can tick that off my list.
I have also been pressing for the legislation to be enacted in this Parliament. Yesterday the government published the EU referendum Bill. To be sure, the Bill cannot be brought in in government time without Mr Clegg's say so. But the chance to engineer a vote on it is now ours for the making.
Again, tick.
As a member of Better Off Out, who has been campaigning for an In / Out referendum, I feel I can now say "Yes. Thanks, Prime Minister. On matters Europe, that's what I wanted".
Having woken up to the UKIP insurgency, many in SW1 want to respond by beefing up policy. I am happy to beef up all sorts of policy. I even wrote a book about it. But if we want to win back support outside Westminster, the thing that needs beefing up most of all is our plausibility – and not merely on matters European.
I know that many colleagues in the Commons read this blog. Here's what we should do to beef up our plausibility on the Europe question:
Put your name in the Private Members Ballot today.
If you win, announce you will be taking up the government's own EU Referendum Bill. The whips will be helpful.
Throw all your energy into securing a second reading division of the House on it. The whips and all your colleagues will be behind you - as will the country.
Will Ed Miliband? That is the question."
Come on, Mark, all parties have their embarrassments.
Personally I would feel sorry for them.
Merkel gets a good press from her own people.
People did know what they might be getting and thought it was worth the risk