The idea that this country doesn't have a natural majority for a small c conservative party (that doesn't look like it's just the political wing of the City) might get tested soon enough.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
Or, perhaps even more radically we might opt for an electoral system that actually reflects support around the nation for respective parties rather than a buggins turn cum semi fraudulent scam we enjoy presently ??
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
Well, quite - you and I have the luxury of aiming for that ideal (I agree with you on its desirability) but that's not really the same point as Cameron's complete failure to understand the constraints of the game he volunteered to play, or to prioritise changing the rules so that it would be a better fit for what he wants to play.
In reality there is little Cameron could do short of gerrymandering the boundaries. Now there's a thought !!
Hmmm. Very little other than a) adopting a policy portfolio with broader appeal outside safe seats; b) supporting, rather than sabotaging electoral reform; c) finding a way to get the LDs back on board with boundary changes (everyone has their price...)
I can see that b) and c) might require him to have some control of and respect from his party, and are therefore a bit tricky in the real world; on the other hand it's probable that a small "c" conservative agenda would win him more support within and without his party, so there's no real excuse for not doing that. It would be entirely consistent with being a Conservative, Prime Minister, and Leader of a majority government - as it is, he'll only really be remembered as qualifying for one of those three titles.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers Redwood: 'Mandate referendum now'. Ken Clarke: 'Leaving EU would be a catastrophe, very reckless.' They've officially gone bonkers #europe
I believe the most amusing way to spin it is "coordinated panic".
But no suggestion (yet) that defections are planned. For the time being, it seems all concerned still see their future inside the Conservatives. So that point hasn't been reached yet.
@Patrick You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat.#
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
It's come to the tories being a narrow, unelectable clique that will never in fact be able to implement policy in this country or influence its application. Cameron and Osborne are more ambitious and know that as a result they have to reach beyond this clique to a broader section of the community. Hence the detox strategy, the social liberalism, the nods to the green lobby etc etc. Politics eh?
i can't quite see how that stacks up. The Cameroons understood they needed to broaden appeal but appear to be incapable of delivering it. You don't broaden appeal by shifting in one direction and losing everyone off the other side of the bench. Cameron hasn't yet figured out how to manage a range of opinions and as a result he's always on the backfoot with a chunk of his party. It's probably in all fairness not due to ideology but due to a career which is noticeably short on man management before he got the top job.
@Patrick You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat.#
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
It's come to the tories being a narrow, unelectable clique that will never in fact be able to implement policy in this country or influence its application. Cameron and Osborne are more ambitious and know that as a result they have to reach beyond this clique to a broader section of the community. Hence the detox strategy, the social liberalism, the nods to the green lobby etc etc. Politics eh?
@Patrick You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat.#
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
It's come to the tories being a narrow, unelectable clique that will never in fact be able to implement policy in this country or influence its application. Cameron and Osborne are more ambitious and know that as a result they have to reach beyond this clique to a broader section of the community. Hence the detox strategy, the social liberalism, the nods to the green lobby etc etc. Politics eh?
I'm too lazy to look but I'd be interested to know if there's a common link between majority size and a belief that the EU is central to all political issues. Intuitively I'd say there is and that is perhaps influencing behaviour.
@JackW - instead of moaning, the Tories need to shift their votes to areas they need them rather than stacking up vast majorities in their heartlands. That they cannot do is is incompetence, not unfairness. Mike has shown time and again that the structural bias theory is a myth, as you know.
Oh bugger, why didn't Cameron think of that.
Lets shift some of leafy Surrey to Bolsover and chunks of the central belt of Scotland down to the Cotswolds. Sod the EU referendum bill lets go for a "Compulsory Conservative Removal (To Labour Seats) Bill"
Or, perhaps more radically, he could consider repositioning policies in a manner that will alienate a few of his supporters in areas with super-majorities whilst winning new supporters in marginals a bit further north. You know, a bit less gay marriage and focus on the interests of the super-rich in financial services, and a bit more social conservatism and support for job creation outside the south-east. It's not difficult (even Labour managed it).
Or, perhaps even more radically we might opt for an electoral system that actually reflects support around the nation for respective parties rather than a buggins turn cum semi fraudulent scam we enjoy presently ??
Try AMS - where the Scots lead the rest of the UK should follow !!
Well, quite - you and I have the luxury of aiming for that ideal (I agree with you on its desirability) but that's not really the same point as Cameron's complete failure to understand the constraints of the game he volunteered to play, or to prioritise changing the rules so that it would be a better fit for what he wants to play.
In reality there is little Cameron could do short of gerrymandering the boundaries. Now there's a thought !!
Hmmm. Very little other than a) adopting a policy portfolio with broader appeal outside safe seats; b) supporting, rather than sabotaging electoral reform; c) finding a way to get the LDs back on board with boundary changes (everyone has their price...)
I can see that b) and c) might require him to have some control of and respect from his party, and are therefore a bit tricky in the real world; on the other hand it's probable that a small "c" conservative agenda would win him more support within and without his party, so there's no real excuse for not doing that. It would be entirely consistent with being a Conservative, Prime Minister, and Leader of a majority government - as it is, he'll only really be remembered as qualifying for one of those three titles.
The difficulty for Cameron is trying to drag his party away from the cul de sac of the Howard years. That said Howard needed to consolidate, shore up the base and put the Conservatives in a position to challenge again. He did that in 2005.
Cameron needed to move to the centre to have an opportunity to win. He did so. Conservatives need to realize that becomining Ukip-lite threatens a return to the days of Hague and Howard. I would not support a Conservative party wedded to leaving the EU for constitutional reasons or returning to a more socially conservative programme.
F1: just backed Red Bull at 1.9 for the Constructors. Already green for Lotus and Ferrari, so that makes me evens if Red Bull wins it and ahead of either of the other two teams do. I expect the team to be competitive even if the tyres remain unchanged and if they are made more durable Red Bull should be strong favourites. I wouldn't back this if I didn't have the Ferrari/Lotus positions already.
I've also backed, with small stakes, Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco. Hamilton's odds are longer with Ladbrokes than Betfair (8), whereas Rosberg is 9.2 with Betfair (also 8 with Ladbrokes). The each way option doesn't tempt me at all. Because of the nature of the track they'll probably either win or finish miles behind.
Was Kelsey Grammar the only non Gay regular male cast member in Frasier? Niles, Bulldog and Gil are all gay and Martin is rumoured to be although unconfirmed.
Has their ever been a song about a gay lover that was not ambigous? I realise all love songs written by gay men or women represent their experiences, but I have never heard, for instance, a George Michael song that couldnt have also been about a heterosexual relationship.
@tim Fewer women think that Ed Miliband is doing a good job than think David Cameron is doing a good job. The difference in their net ratings with women is because twice as many women don't know whether Ed Miliband is doing a good job or bad job as David Cameron.
It's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Ed Miliband, especially since more than twice as many men who express an opinion think that Ed Miliband is doing a bad job as think he is doing a good job. Ed Miliband's ratings among men are worse than David Cameron's ratings among women.
The Tories lost a large chunk of their vote over sleaze and the ERM fallout - nothing to do with hugging gay huskies.
That chunk were only ever coming back after they realized they were conned by New Labour which, because of the credit bubble wasn't till around 2007-ish by which time the Tories had gone all transexual.
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
"The ICM 2010 voters now saying Ukip CON 27%, LAB 13% LD 12%"
Changes from 2010: CON 28 (-8), LAB 34 (+5), LD 11 (-12), UKIP 18 (+15)
27% of 2010 Con voters is 9 percentage points.
So vis-a-vis Labour, LD, and others, they are a percentage point up (i.e. basically level).
Something I'm not sure Ed will be particularly happy with, if it is correct; I have long suggested that some non-voting 'Tories' in 2010 report as 2010 Tories once they've switched to UKIP.
That is fantastic for UKIP. I dont think anyone, certainly not Farage, ever said that they were taking equally from all parties, but this shows that a significant amount of voters from all are leaving. Conservatives always were going to be the biggest source, but I reckon quite a few Lab and LD fans would not have believed the split was as close. Probably thought Cons take 4 x Lab and LD.
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
I think tim has a point though, UKIP is all about the politics of virility at the moment. It's not surprising it appeals to blokes more than laaydeees as things stand.
If Farage can link independence to cheaper food or lower gas bills, its not irretrievable, however.
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
Cameron will be fecked.
But will he be able to take his party with him, or will he risk splitting it?
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
Cameron will be fecked.
But will he be able to take his party with him, or will he risk splitting it?
I'm totally bewildered by this talk of Cameron being colossally damaged by legislating re the EU - why? Almost everyone bar Ken Clark is in favour of a referendum. The timing is a process issue not an ideological one.
Me thinks, its emotion over political reality. Summed up as Cameron Haters vs Everyone Else on the Right.
As is Mandelson's astonishing mea culpa in the Mail today. Goodness me. It seems that if he cant have the labour party he wants, he is determined to torpedo it.
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
"Well I'm not the worlds most masculine man But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man And so is Lola."
That's pretty unambiguous.
Well thats true, but the singer didnt know that Lola was a transvetite at first, and pushes him away when he finds out. Also Ray Davies, who wrote the song, isnt gay.
Its more of a mix up than an expression of love.
I meant a song by a gay man or woman explicitly appealing to someone of the same sex
"Well I'm not the worlds most masculine man But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man And so is Lola."
That's pretty unambiguous.
Depeche Mode - "Never let me down again" (1987)
"I'm taking a ride with my best friend I hope he never lets me down again Promises me I'm as safe as houses As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers I hope he never lets me down again"
"Well I'm not the worlds most masculine man But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man And so is Lola."
That's pretty unambiguous.
Well thats true, but the singer didnt know that Lola was a transvetite at first, and pushes him away when he finds out. Also Ray Davies, who wrote the song, isnt gay.
Its more of a mix up than an expression of love.
I meant a song by a gay man or woman explicitly appealing to someone of the same sex
Seriously, Milliband should just smash the ball into the open net, run to the corner flag, whilst doing a power slide, his shirt over his head, revealing a t shirt with "Champions 2015" on it.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time. He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
Cameron will be fecked.
But will he be able to take his party with him, or will he risk splitting it?
I'm totally bewildered by this talk of Cameron being colossally damaged by legislating re the EU - why? Almost everyone bar Ken Clark is in favour of a referendum. The timing is a process issue not an ideological one.
Me thinks, its emotion over political reality. Summed up as Cameron Haters vs Everyone Else on the Right.
TwistedFireStopper was talking about Miliband changing his mind and supporting a referendum; therefore my question referred to the Labour Party.
Labour has been fairly (although not fully) unified on a pro-EU basis for years; the only arguments were on the Euro, not actual membership. It may prove hard for Miliband to so radically change tack and take the party with him.
"Well I'm not the worlds most masculine man But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man And so is Lola."
That's pretty unambiguous.
Depeche Mode - "Never let me down again" (1987)
"I'm taking a ride with my best friend I hope he never lets me down again Promises me I'm as safe as houses As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers I hope he never lets me down again"
"This recent rather explosive poll with UKIP way outpolling the Yellow Peril shows that EUsceptic, small government, low tax, middle England common sense, anti PC, anti nannying politics is getting a clear majority of the vote"
That's an interesting claim. What is the combined Labour, LD, SNP, PC and Green score in the latest ICM? My guess is that it is at or near to 50%.
The reality is that there is no clear majority either way in the UK and has not been for quite a while. That's why we are probably heading towards another hung parliament in 2015 with, as things stand, Labour being the biggest party.
"Children today, though. God, they’re a nightmare. All they ever do is want, want, want. You try to resist, because you know that what they want isn’t good for them; but if the wheedling and whining don’t wear you down, the screaming and sulking does. So you back down a little. Not the worst thing in the world; teach them about compromise. But no. It’s not enough. That’s not what I wanted, Daddy! Daddy, that’s the wrong one! Daddy, you got me the WRONG ONE! Daaaaaaad!
Essentially, David Cameron is on the world’s longest car journey, with three tiny Eurosceptics howling in the back seat.
“Daaaaad! Are we nearly THERE yet!”
“Yes yes, nearly there, not long now.” “HOW long, Daddy?”
“I said not long.”
“I said HOW long, Daddy?”
“Not long. Just four more years.”
“DADD-EEE! I can’t wait that long for an in-out referendum on Britain’s relationship with the European Union! DADD-EEE!”
“Now come on, quieten down. Daddy’s trying to drive.”
“DADD-EEE!”
“I said, quieten down.”
“OW! Daddy, John Baron just pinched my arm and it HURTS, Daddy!”
“John Baron, I’ve told you before. Stop pinching Peter Bone.”
“He STARTED it, Daddy! Peter Bone pinched me first!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“For heaven’s sake, would you shut up the pair of you.”
“OW! DADD-EEE!”
“Oh, what now, Peter Bone?”
“Daddy, Bill Cash just kicked me in the shin, Daddy!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“Did not!”
“Did—”
“RIGHT. THAT’S IT. YOU CAN ALL BE QUIET, THE THREE OF YOU, FOR THE REST OF THE JOURNEY, OR DADDY WILL GET VERY CROSS AND THERE’LL BE NO REFERENDUM FOR ANY OF YOU.”
"As we make the electoral registration system more secure, it's time to look at whether other trust-based elements of our system are sustainable. There are trade-offs between making the system accessible and making it secure."
No there bloody aren't. If an electoral system is open to fraud it doesn't matter if it's accessible.
Postal voting should be kept to a minimum for those who cannot vote otherwise (the disabled, heavily pregnant women and personnel working overseas).
"As we make the electoral registration system more secure, it's time to look at whether other trust-based elements of our system are sustainable. There are trade-offs between making the system accessible and making it secure."
No there bloody aren't. If an electoral system is open to fraud it doesn't matter if it's accessible.
All systems are open to fraud. There's no such thing as perfect security, it's always a trade-off.
Postal voting should be kept to a minimum for those who cannot vote otherwise (the disabled, heavily pregnant women and personnel working overseas).
If you leave it open to them then you may not be making it substantially less open to fraud, because whether you're in one of those groups, like pretty much everything else about electoral registration, is based on self-reporting, so fraudsters can claim to be in one of those groups.
If, as seems likely, the UKIP balloon deflates at some point before the next election, whose voters will return home and in what proportions?
One wonders how many will never return to Labour, thanks to Mandelson's revelation in The Daily Mail. (Not that it's much of a surprise).
Mandelson has revealed nothing in the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail has lifted a few sentences from a longer speech he gave or discussion he was involved in and spun a story around them. From what I can see, he seems to be saying that in 2004 - when the economy was at its peak performance and to all intents and purposes there was full employment - the government was looking to bring in workers from elsewhere to fill vacancies that were not being filled, but that by 2007/08 that policy had gone wrong because of the crash. Obviously, though, the usual suspects will want to spin a conspiracy around that and will do so.
Is there any evidence that ICM's wisdom index is 'very inaccurate'? When they introduced it, ICM said it got the 2010 election spot on.
Daniel Furr is talking out his backside.
When the ICM wisdom index debuted, Martin Boon posted this on pb.
The new technique is based on the concept of the Wisdom of Crowds; the idea that a random crowd is capable of superior judgement than the smartest people within it.
At the 2010 GE this method out performed every other poll. I have shadowed it over time against our tracker polls and it provides an interesting complement to them, in my view.
If, as seems likely, the UKIP balloon deflates at some point before the next election, whose voters will return home and in what proportions?
One wonders how many will never return to Labour, thanks to Mandelson's revelation in The Daily Mail. (Not that it's much of a surprise).
Mandelson has revealed nothing in the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail has lifted a few sentences from a longer speech he gave or discussion he was involved in and spun a story around them. From what I can see, he seems to be saying that in 2004 - when the economy was at its peak performance and to all intents and purposes there was full employment - the government was looking to bring in workers from elsewhere to fill vacancies that were not being filled, but that by 2007/08 that policy had gone wrong because of the crash. Obviously, though, the usual suspects will want to spin a conspiracy around that and will do so.
It's only a revelation to idiots.
Of course the govt were recruiting in 2004.
They still are in certain fields
1 June 2010 Doctor shortage sees new recruitment drive in India
11/4/2013
The UK Government has relaxed the immigration rules allowing businesses within the oil and gas industry to employ skilled foreign workers. This news gives the oil and gas industry a boost to help fill specialised engineering jobs from out with the EU Zone.
As you say the conspiracy theorists will build their case on it. We need to know who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year, Mandelson probably planned that too, or the BBC.
"who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year"
I'd guess the Eurozone's destruction of the southern european economy.
Is there any evidence that ICM's wisdom index is 'very inaccurate'? When they introduced it, ICM said it got the 2010 election spot on.
Who knows, ICM said this about it last year
"The system has performed well in extensive road-testing. In our final poll before the 2010 General Election among a random sample of just over 2,000 people across Britain, ICM added a few questions asking people what they thought the result of next day's actual election would be.
We were surprised to find that the collective judgment of the crowd outperformed our own 'classic' opinion poll methodology, which itself still produced the most accurate prediction of the election, according to the British Polling Council's evaluation."
Mr. Tokyo, why not revert to the older system before Labour decided turnout trumped legitimacy when it comes to voting?
Whether that's a good idea or not would depend on how much actual evidence there was that there was substantial fraud going on, and that it would be prevented by more restrictive postal voting rules.
It's not immediately obvious that people who have, for example, made up non-existent voters, would be dissuaded by having to make a claim on behalf of their made-up voter that they'll be out of the country on polling day.
That's fascinating national sentiment stuff - thanks for posting. Italy is rather counter-intuitive.
@Plato: The original report is 6 pages long and I have not looked at it all as I am trying to solve a structural engineering problem where plant failed due to an explosion.
"There’s a stushie going on in Falkirk, and Peter Mandleson’s stepped right into it. Apparently, he’s fed up that Unite the Union is dominating Labour’s parliamentary selections, with all the implications this has for the future Parliamentary Labour Party’s centre of gravity. Meanwhile, Len McCluskey, Unite leader, is justifying his union’s activist stance by saying that Labour needs more working class MPs. My constituency of Falkirk is, for today anyway, in the thick of it. So here are three thoughts.
Social class first. Falkirk already has a ‘working class’ MP. I grew up on a council estate, left school with no qualifications and my first job was as an army private, or squaddie. I’ve never earned as much as my electrician – albeit on the oil rigs – brothers. When I was selected as a parliamentary candidate, though, I was presented by some as the Blairite ‘posh’ boy (because I was by then an army officer – fancy that!) and my higher-paid trade union opponent was the left-wing, working-class lad. That was sectional and personal interest masquerading as ideology. Pure dumb-assery.
I’m obviously not really working class now at all, of course, and neither was my opponent. But, then again, neither are most of the people born working class at the same time as me; nor are our kids. Many trade union members in my constituency voted SNP at the last election. In England, the Tories may actually have won more trade union votes than Labour. The secret to getting those people back, and actually winning an election, will not lie in Labour wearing its ‘working class’ credentials like a cowboy hat. It will lie in showing regular, aspirational, folk how Labour serves their own, and their families’, personal interests more than the Tories or SNP do.
Finally. I noticed the moralistic line the Scottish Labour Party (but not, interestingly, their opponents) took re: my fighting in a pub antics last year. A ‘sine die’ ban, they argued, without even bothering to wait for the technicality of a court verdict. Perhaps I am too working class for them after all. But then there isn’t actually such a thing as the Scottish Labour Party, is there? So perhaps it’s time if I asked the bigger boys and girls if I’ve done my porridge now.
The Wisdom Index is a nowcast, right? Ergo it is a world away from a forecast, this far out. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. There is good reason to believe that, absent any need to anticipate future events and reactions, the general cohort the day before the 2010 election had it right but they wouldn't be right people to ask now about 2015.
The Wisdom Index is a nowcast, right? Ergo it is a world away from a forecast, this far out. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. There is good reason to believe that, absent any need to anticipate future events and reactions, the general cohort the day before the 2010 election had it right but they wouldn't be right people to ask now about 2015.
The exact wording is
At the last General Election in May 2010, the Conservatives won 37% share of the vote, Labour won 30% share, the Liberal Democrats 24% share and smaller parties had 10% share of the vote. Knowing this, please tell me what percentage share of the vote you think the ... would win if there were a General Election tomorrow?
@Patrick You're right. Dave is not a Tory. He's a social democrat.#
It's come to something when one can't be a liberal conservative without being seen as a false-Tory.
It's come to the tories being a narrow, unelectable clique that will never in fact be able to implement policy in this country or influence its application. Cameron and Osborne are more ambitious and know that as a result they have to reach beyond this clique to a broader section of the community. Hence the detox strategy, the social liberalism, the nods to the green lobby etc etc. Politics eh?
The modernizers are the clique.
Maybe that is true in the tory Parliamentary party but it is certainly not true in the millions who actually voted Conservative in 2010.
If, as seems likely, the UKIP balloon deflates at some point before the next election, whose voters will return home and in what proportions?
One wonders how many will never return to Labour, thanks to Mandelson's revelation in The Daily Mail. (Not that it's much of a surprise).
Mandelson has revealed nothing in the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail has lifted a few sentences from a longer speech he gave or discussion he was involved in and spun a story around them. From what I can see, he seems to be saying that in 2004 - when the economy was at its peak performance and to all intents and purposes there was full employment - the government was looking to bring in workers from elsewhere to fill vacancies that were not being filled, but that by 2007/08 that policy had gone wrong because of the crash. Obviously, though, the usual suspects will want to spin a conspiracy around that and will do so.
It's only a revelation to idiots.
Of course the govt were recruiting in 2004.
They still are in certain fields
1 June 2010 Doctor shortage sees new recruitment drive in India
11/4/2013
The UK Government has relaxed the immigration rules allowing businesses within the oil and gas industry to employ skilled foreign workers. This news gives the oil and gas industry a boost to help fill specialised engineering jobs from out with the EU Zone.
As you say the conspiracy theorists will build their case on it. We need to know who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year, Mandelson probably planned that too, or the BBC.
"who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year"
I'd guess the Eurozone's destruction of the southern european economy.
400,000 immigrants are from Eastern Europe ( almost half from Rom and Bul ) and 100,000 from the Medlands ( up 40% ) the bulk are headed to Bavaria, BadenWuerttemberg and Nordrheinwestfalen ( 3 states 600k ). There will be trouble down South I'd say.
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
They have a party to hold together. Do you remember when some on here used to claim that the Tories instinct was always to put country first. After the recent chaos and Bennite self-indulgence no-one will be able to say that with a straight face again.
He has always been clear as crystal on the matter. The average man on the street will see no contradiction here, and will continue to vote Labour
MANDELSON NOW... AND THEN
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs'
Lord Mandelson yesterday
'Migrants are filling gaps in our labour market that Britons are not available to fill or unwilling to fill. There has not been an adverse effect on employment of British nationals'
If, as seems likely, the UKIP balloon deflates at some point before the next election, whose voters will return home and in what proportions?
One wonders how many will never return to Labour, thanks to Mandelson's revelation in The Daily Mail. (Not that it's much of a surprise).
Mandelson has revealed nothing in the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail has lifted a few sentences from a longer speech he gave or discussion he was involved in and spun a story around them. From what I can see, he seems to be saying that in 2004 - when the economy was at its peak performance and to all intents and purposes there was full employment - the government was looking to bring in workers from elsewhere to fill vacancies that were not being filled, but that by 2007/08 that policy had gone wrong because of the crash. Obviously, though, the usual suspects will want to spin a conspiracy around that and will do so.
It's only a revelation to idiots.
Of course the govt were recruiting in 2004.
They still are in certain fields
1 June 2010 Doctor shortage sees new recruitment drive in India
11/4/2013
The UK Government has relaxed the immigration rules allowing businesses within the oil and gas industry to employ skilled foreign workers. This news gives the oil and gas industry a boost to help fill specialised engineering jobs from out with the EU Zone.
As you say the conspiracy theorists will build their case on it. We need to know who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year, Mandelson probably planned that too, or the BBC.
"who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year"
I'd guess the Eurozone's destruction of the southern european economy.
400,000 immigrants are from Eastern Europe ( almost half from Rom and Bul ) and 100,000 from the Medlands ( up 40% ) the bulk are headed to Bavaria, BadenWuerttemberg and Nordrheinwestfalen ( 3 states 600k ). There will be trouble down South I'd say.
Nordrhein-Westfalen's in the west-north-west, and, I understand, of now a rather urban character in comparison to the other two Länder.
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
They have a party to hold together. Do you remember when some on here used to claim that the Tories instinct was always to put country first. After the recent chaos and Bennite self-indulgence no-one will be able to say that with a straight face again.
You do know George is at an EU Finance Ministers meeting in Bruxelles today, do you think he should have missed that and attended Treasury questions?
If, as seems likely, the UKIP balloon deflates at some point before the next election, whose voters will return home and in what proportions?
One wonders how many will never return to Labour, thanks to Mandelson's revelation in The Daily Mail. (Not that it's much of a surprise).
Mandelson has revealed nothing in the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail has lifted a few sentences from a longer speech he gave or discussion he was involved in and spun a story around them. From what I can see, he seems to be saying that in 2004 - when the economy was at its peak performance and to all intents and purposes there was full employment - the government was looking to bring in workers from elsewhere to fill vacancies that were not being filled, but that by 2007/08 that policy had gone wrong because of the crash. Obviously, though, the usual suspects will want to spin a conspiracy around that and will do so.
It's only a revelation to idiots.
Of course the govt were recruiting in 2004.
They still are in certain fields
1 June 2010 Doctor shortage sees new recruitment drive in India
11/4/2013
The UK Government has relaxed the immigration rules allowing businesses within the oil and gas industry to employ skilled foreign workers. This news gives the oil and gas industry a boost to help fill specialised engineering jobs from out with the EU Zone.
As you say the conspiracy theorists will build their case on it. We need to know who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year, Mandelson probably planned that too, or the BBC.
"who's behind the one million immigrants into Germany this last year"
I'd guess the Eurozone's destruction of the southern european economy.
400,000 immigrants are from Eastern Europe ( almost half from Rom and Bul ) and 100,000 from the Medlands ( up 40% ) the bulk are headed to Bavaria, BadenWuerttemberg and Nordrheinwestfalen ( 3 states 600k ). There will be trouble down South I'd say.
Nordrhein-Westfalen's in the west-north-west, and, I understand, of now a rather urban character in comparison to the other two Länder.
The two Southern states are still the most traditional in Germany in many ways, so pressure on culture and community won't go unremarked for long.
He has always been clear as crystal on the matter. The average man on the street will see no contradiction here, and will continue to vote Labour
MANDELSON NOW... AND THEN
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs'
Lord Mandelson yesterday
'Migrants are filling gaps in our labour market that Britons are not available to fill or unwilling to fill. There has not been an adverse effect on employment of British nationals'
I'm not much of one to notice what past politicians say - but Mandy is a special case when it comes to rubbishing his own side. He is a master of the dark arts and for him to make statements like this is notable to say the least.
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs' is plain and simple language and very damaging. It confirms fears in a single sentence.
"As we are seeing at the moment the backgrounds of those who won on May 2nd are being examined closely by their opponents and unfortunate blogs, Facebook entries and Tweets are being unearthed all the time."
This really is a very stupid policy for the parties to follow and will only backfire on them. As we saw in the lead up to May 2nd, for every off colour tweet or facebook entry that the Tories unearthed, it was possible to find cases of sitting Tory councillors who had either been suspended or arrested for comments or actions that were as bad or in many cases far worse than the original claims. In the end their idiotic plan only served to help UKIP.
I see no reason why similar actions by any of the other three parties won't result in a similar response and with their greater number of councillors they have far more to fear than UKIP in a mud slinging fight.
"With reference to SeanT's suggestion last night of backing Borussia Dortmund to win the Champions League (currently best priced at 22/1 with SkyBet), on a more modest scale they are on offer to qualify from Group D (i.e. finish top 2) at odds of 5/6 compared with their main rival, Man City's slightly longer odds of 10/11.
"Those who consider that Roberto Mancini's team are likely to be edged out at this pre-knockout stage might decide to avail themselves instead of Stan James' odds of 6.5/1 against the City manager still being in place on the last day of the 2012-2013 Premier League season."
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
TBF what's going on at ECOFIN is far more important than anything that's happening in the House of Commons today, or any other day for that matter.
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
They have a party to hold together. Do you remember when some on here used to claim that the Tories instinct was always to put country first. After the recent chaos and Bennite self-indulgence no-one will be able to say that with a straight face again.
You do know George is at an EU Finance Ministers meeting in Bruxelles today, do you think he should have missed that and attended Treasury questions?
Come on, you don't expect tim to read and understand the tweets he is posting here?
TBH, I can see a large number of voters thinking that a non-PC Kipper is a breath of fresh air when all others fall over themselves to be anodyne.
And as you note - all parties have their fair share of oops comments made by their own side - just look at Lord Ahmed resigning from Labour today as an example...
Beware of voting UKIP , you don't know what you are getting . Eric Kitson newly elected CC for Stourport in Worcestershire is facing expulsion from his party and police prosecution for inciting racial hatred against muslims and jews on his facebook site . See worcesternews.co.uk .
Mr senior is the man who keeps telling us about other posters smearing.
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour RT @PeoplesPledgeEU: We've logged 20 pro-ref Lab MPs, new @Lab4aRef group lists others, plus 8 DUP, 1 Lib, 1 Green. Could be close!
"With reference to SeanT's suggestion last night of backing Borussia Dortmund to win the Champions League (currently best priced at 22/1 with SkyBet), on a more modest scale they are on offer to qualify from Group D (i.e. finish top 2) at odds of 5/6 compared with their main rival, Man City's slightly longer odds of 10/11.
"Those who consider that Roberto Mancini's team are likely to be edged out at this pre-knockout stage might decide to avail themselves instead of Stan James' odds of 6.5/1 against the City manager still being in place on the last day of the 2012-2013 Premier League season."
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs' is plain and simple language and very damaging. It confirms fears in a single sentence.
Have to say I am struggling to see how that is very different to anything that Ed Miliband or other members of the Labour front bench have said.
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
TBF what's going on at ECOFIN is far more important than anything that's happening in the House of Commons today, or any other day for that matter.
That said if Osborne can't make it to parliament he should at least make up for it by live-tweeting it.
Mandelsons admission that Labours immigration policy has cost British people their jobs is evidence of what I have been saying on here for months, and why Labour will lose/are losing votes to UKIP
Many 'Old' Labour voters, the kind tim would call thick racists, who would never vote Tory but have nothing in common with Marxism or pro immigration agendas, had nowhere to go for years. Some may have voted BNP, some stuck with Labour, others didnt vote at all.
I know plenty of these people, they exist. They are not racist, hence the BNP never getting support in the way UKIP is now. Now they have someone who is looking out for them
Relentless stats "proving" how much better the country is as a result of mass immigration are insignificant in this debate. People who have left the area they called home, lost their jobs or seen a marked decrease in wages as a result of mass immigration arent all going to keep voting Labour just because the kids of immigrants are more intelligent than their own, and the schools where their children dont go, but would have done if they hadnt moved, are all of a sudden so great. Why would that be attractive to them?! If anything it winds them up.
Incidentally, I'v backed Red bull at 1.9 for the title, mostly because I'm green now for Ferrari and Lotus and evens if Red Bull get it.
I've also put small sums on Rosberg and Hamilton to win in Monaco (longer odds for the latter on Ladbrokes). I think it's quite likely one of them will get pole, at which point I may hedge. Not really a tip, but the early discussion for Monaco should have some interesting potential bets to ruminate upon.
"With reference to SeanT's suggestion last night of backing Borussia Dortmund to win the Champions League (currently best priced at 22/1 with SkyBet), on a more modest scale they are on offer to qualify from Group D (i.e. finish top 2) at odds of 5/6 compared with their main rival, Man City's slightly longer odds of 10/11.
"Those who consider that Roberto Mancini's team are likely to be edged out at this pre-knockout stage might decide to avail themselves instead of Stan James' odds of 6.5/1 against the City manager still being in place on the last day of the 2012-2013 Premier League season."
Modesty prevents .........
Well done sir.
Good work
Here is a slightly less happy betting slip... a missed Brentwood penalty in the last minute of the season to blame
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
They have a party to hold together. Do you remember when some on here used to claim that the Tories instinct was always to put country first. After the recent chaos and Bennite self-indulgence no-one will be able to say that with a straight face again.
You do know George is at an EU Finance Ministers meeting in Bruxelles today, do you think he should have missed that and attended Treasury questions?
Jack Blanchard @JackBlanchardYP No Chancellor at Treasury Qs today; no PM at PMQs tomorrow. And next week we're back in recess. Good to see Govt taking Parliament seriously
They have a party to hold together. Do you remember when some on here used to claim that the Tories instinct was always to put country first. After the recent chaos and Bennite self-indulgence no-one will be able to say that with a straight face again.
You do know George is at an EU Finance Ministers meeting in Bruxelles today, do you think he should have missed that and attended Treasury questions?
I am sure that George and Dave both have excellent excuses for not being around this week to answer to Parliament, just as they always do.
My general point is that recent events have shown that any claims the Tories put country before party are laughable.
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs' is plain and simple language and very damaging. It confirms fears in a single sentence.
Have to say I am struggling to see how that is very different to anything that Ed Miliband or other members of the Labour front bench have said.
I think you'll find the issue's the timing, they weren't saying that 7 or 8 years ago and were questioning the motives of anyone who raised the question.
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour RT @PeoplesPledgeEU: We've logged 20 pro-ref Lab MPs, new @Lab4aRef group lists others, plus 8 DUP, 1 Lib, 1 Green. Could be close!
Have to subtract Ken Clarke from that equation - perhaps 1-2 others on the Blue side.
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour RT @PeoplesPledgeEU: We've logged 20 pro-ref Lab MPs, new @Lab4aRef group lists others, plus 8 DUP, 1 Lib, 1 Green. Could be close!
Have to subtract Ken Clarke from that equation - perhaps 1-2 others on the Blue side.
David Burrowes MP now on the Daily Politics calling for a referendum on gay marriage. God told him to do it no doubt.
He should be encouraged. It would be great fun. I'm already looking forward to canvassing in Donegal North East in the Irish gay marriage referendum (now expected next year - sorry if anyone followed my long odds tip on that being in October with the abolition of the Senate referendum).
So today ECOFIN are apparently dealing with tax evasion where Osborne has been the leading light in pushing co-operation and disclosure not just in the EU but in the G7 and banking reform, the most critical issue still to be resolved following the crash, specifically the extent to which the states should guarantee the investors and the extent to which "bail in" is a legitimate approach post Cyprus.
Of course he should be in the House of Commons explaining economics 101 to idiotic bankbenchers who want to ask about some closure in their town.
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs' is plain and simple language and very damaging. It confirms fears in a single sentence.
Have to say I am struggling to see how that is very different to anything that Ed Miliband or other members of the Labour front bench have said.
I think you'll find the issue's the timing, they weren't saying that 7 or 8 years ago and were questioning the motives of anyone who raised the question.
Yes, I agree. As I have said many times before on here I think Labour got it very wrong on immigration. What I do not buy into is that it was all some kind of conspiracy. It was much more that an urban elite which had little idea of the real world and an ideological sympathy with internaitonalism was so isolated from reality it did not foresee the trouble that loosening restrictions on people coming into the country would create. Now Labour has to prove that it does get it.
Comments
I can see that b) and c) might require him to have some control of and respect from his party, and are therefore a bit tricky in the real world; on the other hand it's probable that a small "c" conservative agenda would win him more support within and without his party, so there's no real excuse for not doing that. It would be entirely consistent with being a Conservative, Prime Minister, and Leader of a majority government - as it is, he'll only really be remembered as qualifying for one of those three titles.
Again.
But no suggestion (yet) that defections are planned. For the time being, it seems all concerned still see their future inside the Conservatives. So that point hasn't been reached yet.
In my experience one often leads to the other...
Cameron needed to move to the centre to have an opportunity to win. He did so. Conservatives need to realize that becomining Ukip-lite threatens a return to the days of Hague and Howard. I would not support a Conservative party wedded to leaving the EU for constitutional reasons or returning to a more socially conservative programme.
I've also backed, with small stakes, Hamilton and Rosberg to win in Monaco. Hamilton's odds are longer with Ladbrokes than Betfair (8), whereas Rosberg is 9.2 with Betfair (also 8 with Ladbrokes). The each way option doesn't tempt me at all. Because of the nature of the track they'll probably either win or finish miles behind.
So it's now old, poor, and male you dislike....
That really depends on what you got up to in Bournemouth
Was Kelsey Grammar the only non Gay regular male cast member in Frasier? Niles, Bulldog and Gil are all gay and Martin is rumoured to be although unconfirmed.
Has their ever been a song about a gay lover that was not ambigous? I realise all love songs written by gay men or women represent their experiences, but I have never heard, for instance, a George Michael song that couldnt have also been about a heterosexual relationship.
Hersham - the new Brighton ?!?
If so then it could be that a lot of the men who support Farage are ex non voters, skewing any supposed disadvantage in the gender vote
It's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Ed Miliband, especially since more than twice as many men who express an opinion think that Ed Miliband is doing a bad job as think he is doing a good job. Ed Miliband's ratings among men are worse than David Cameron's ratings among women.
That chunk were only ever coming back after they realized they were conned by New Labour which, because of the credit bubble wasn't till around 2007-ish by which time the Tories had gone all transexual.
He could easily u-turn on his words of last week, about it not being the right time.
He can blame Cameron, suggest that the Tory leader is damaging the country with the uncertainty that his and his parties actions have caused over the EU, and that it's time to sort it out once and for all, and that he (Ed) will be campaigning to stay in.
Cameron will be fecked.
Changes from 2010:
CON 28 (-8), LAB 34 (+5), LD 11 (-12), UKIP 18 (+15)
27% of 2010 Con voters is 9 percentage points.
So vis-a-vis Labour, LD, and others, they are a percentage point up (i.e. basically level).
Something I'm not sure Ed will be particularly happy with, if it is correct; I have long suggested that some non-voting 'Tories' in 2010 report as 2010 Tories once they've switched to UKIP.
Meanwhile the awkward squad are coming onside
Zac Goldsmith @ZacGoldsmith 20m
“@DouglasCarswell: Thanks, Prime Minister. On matters European in this Parliament, that'll do me http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/thank-you-prime-minister--thatll-do/2658 …” Likewise.
"Sunny" by Morrissey is a lovely song which might fit the bill now I think of it
ICM Wisdom Index (which is very inaccurate) clear hints none of the big three parties will achieve 30% at a GE
Also - nice graphs..
http://order-order.com/2013/05/14/even-labour-supporters-are-hardening-on-hand-outs/
I'll be putting in for Private Members Ballot today and for 1st time, hope I will win!! If I do I'll opt for draft EU Ref Bill to take thru.
I think tim has a point though, UKIP is all about the politics of virility at the moment. It's not surprising it appeals to blokes more than laaydeees as things stand.
If Farage can link independence to cheaper food or lower gas bills, its not irretrievable, however.
"Well I'm not the worlds most masculine man
But I know what I am and I'm glad I'm a man
And so is Lola."
That's pretty unambiguous.
Me thinks, its emotion over political reality. Summed up as Cameron Haters vs Everyone Else on the Right.
As is Mandelson's astonishing mea culpa in the Mail today. Goodness me. It seems that if he cant have the labour party he wants, he is determined to torpedo it.
God help us.
Its more of a mix up than an expression of love.
I meant a song by a gay man or woman explicitly appealing to someone of the same sex
"Sunny" is the only one I can think of
"I'm taking a ride with my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again
Promises me I'm as safe as houses
As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers
I hope he never lets me down again"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGBaXPlri8
Labour has been fairly (although not fully) unified on a pro-EU basis for years; the only arguments were on the Euro, not actual membership. It may prove hard for Miliband to so radically change tack and take the party with him.
That's an interesting claim. What is the combined Labour, LD, SNP, PC and Green score in the latest ICM? My guess is that it is at or near to 50%.
The reality is that there is no clear majority either way in the UK and has not been for quite a while. That's why we are probably heading towards another hung parliament in 2015 with, as things stand, Labour being the biggest party.
"Children today, though. God, they’re a nightmare. All they ever do is want, want, want. You try to resist, because you know that what they want isn’t good for them; but if the wheedling and whining don’t wear you down, the screaming and sulking does. So you back down a little. Not the worst thing in the world; teach them about compromise. But no. It’s not enough. That’s not what I wanted, Daddy! Daddy, that’s the wrong one! Daddy, you got me the WRONG ONE! Daaaaaaad!
Essentially, David Cameron is on the world’s longest car journey, with three tiny Eurosceptics howling in the back seat.
“Daaaaad! Are we nearly THERE yet!”
“Yes yes, nearly there, not long now.”
“HOW long, Daddy?”
“I said not long.”
“I said HOW long, Daddy?”
“Not long. Just four more years.”
“DADD-EEE! I can’t wait that long for an in-out referendum on Britain’s relationship with the European Union! DADD-EEE!”
“Now come on, quieten down. Daddy’s trying to drive.”
“DADD-EEE!”
“I said, quieten down.”
“OW! Daddy, John Baron just pinched my arm and it HURTS, Daddy!”
“John Baron, I’ve told you before. Stop pinching Peter Bone.”
“He STARTED it, Daddy! Peter Bone pinched me first!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“For heaven’s sake, would you shut up the pair of you.”
“OW! DADD-EEE!”
“Oh, what now, Peter Bone?”
“Daddy, Bill Cash just kicked me in the shin, Daddy!”
“Did not!”
“Did too!”
“Did not!”
“Did—”
“RIGHT. THAT’S IT. YOU CAN ALL BE QUIET, THE THREE OF YOU, FOR THE REST OF THE JOURNEY, OR DADDY WILL GET VERY CROSS AND THERE’LL BE NO REFERENDUM FOR ANY OF YOU.”
“Oh Daaaaaad! Daddy, that’s not fair! Dadd-eee! Daddy, how could you! Daaaaaad! Daddy that’s so unfair Daddy! Daddy I HATE you, Daddy, I HATE you! I HATE YOU!” ... more of the same... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10055879/Sketch-Poor-Daddy-Cameron-broken-by-his-kids.html
"As we make the electoral registration system more secure, it's time to look at whether other trust-based elements of our system are sustainable. There are trade-offs between making the system accessible and making it secure."
No there bloody aren't. If an electoral system is open to fraud it doesn't matter if it's accessible.
Postal voting should be kept to a minimum for those who cannot vote otherwise (the disabled, heavily pregnant women and personnel working overseas).
To deal with Europe's economic problems, would you favour or oppose giving more decision-making power to the EU?
Country: Oppose/Favour
Germany: 44/51
Italy: 39/49
Spain: 48/47
France: 53/47
Poland: 46/38
Czech. R 61/35
Greece: 65/31
Britain: 71/21
EU % Favourable 2007/2013
Spain: 80/46
France: 82/41
Italy: 78/58
Czech 54/38
Poland: 83/68
Britain: 52/43
Germany: 68/60
Greece: -/33
When the ICM wisdom index debuted, Martin Boon posted this on pb.
The new technique is based on the concept of the Wisdom of Crowds; the idea that a random crowd is capable of superior judgement than the smartest people within it.
At the 2010 GE this method out performed every other poll. I have shadowed it over time against our tracker polls and it provides an interesting complement to them, in my view.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/06/02/the-debut-icm-wisdom-index/
I'd guess the Eurozone's destruction of the southern european economy.
Who knows, ICM said this about it last year
"The system has performed well in extensive road-testing. In our final poll before the 2010 General Election among a random sample of just over 2,000 people across Britain, ICM added a few questions asking people what they thought the result of next day's actual election would be.
We were surprised to find that the collective judgment of the crowd outperformed our own 'classic' opinion poll methodology, which itself still produced the most accurate prediction of the election, according to the British Polling Council's evaluation."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9307396/Wisdom-index-poll-puts-Labour-eight-points-ahead-of-Conservatives.html
It's not immediately obvious that people who have, for example, made up non-existent voters, would be dissuaded by having to make a claim on behalf of their made-up voter that they'll be out of the country on polling day.
The original report is 6 pages long and I have not looked at it all as I am trying to solve a structural engineering problem where plant failed due to an explosion.
Have a look at the report - link given earlier.
"There’s a stushie going on in Falkirk, and Peter Mandleson’s stepped right into it. Apparently, he’s fed up that Unite the Union is dominating Labour’s parliamentary selections, with all the implications this has for the future Parliamentary Labour Party’s centre of gravity. Meanwhile, Len McCluskey, Unite leader, is justifying his union’s activist stance by saying that Labour needs more working class MPs. My constituency of Falkirk is, for today anyway, in the thick of it. So here are three thoughts.
Social class first. Falkirk already has a ‘working class’ MP. I grew up on a council estate, left school with no qualifications and my first job was as an army private, or squaddie. I’ve never earned as much as my electrician – albeit on the oil rigs – brothers. When I was selected as a parliamentary candidate, though, I was presented by some as the Blairite ‘posh’ boy (because I was by then an army officer – fancy that!) and my higher-paid trade union opponent was the left-wing, working-class lad. That was sectional and personal interest masquerading as ideology. Pure dumb-assery.
I’m obviously not really working class now at all, of course, and neither was my opponent. But, then again, neither are most of the people born working class at the same time as me; nor are our kids. Many trade union members in my constituency voted SNP at the last election. In England, the Tories may actually have won more trade union votes than Labour. The secret to getting those people back, and actually winning an election, will not lie in Labour wearing its ‘working class’ credentials like a cowboy hat. It will lie in showing regular, aspirational, folk how Labour serves their own, and their families’, personal interests more than the Tories or SNP do.
Finally. I noticed the moralistic line the Scottish Labour Party (but not, interestingly, their opponents) took re: my fighting in a pub antics last year. A ‘sine die’ ban, they argued, without even bothering to wait for the technicality of a court verdict. Perhaps I am too working class for them after all. But then there isn’t actually such a thing as the Scottish Labour Party, is there? So perhaps it’s time if I asked the bigger boys and girls if I’ve done my porridge now.
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/05/fkuk-working-class-mps/
Voting by tribe on the Campus Martius is the way to go.
I hereby submit my candidacy to be quaestor responsible for motorsport.
At the last General Election in May 2010, the Conservatives won 37% share of the vote, Labour won 30% share, the Liberal Democrats 24% share and smaller parties had 10% share of the vote. Knowing this, please tell me what percentage share of the vote you think the ... would win if there were a General Election tomorrow?
MANDELSON NOW... AND THEN
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs'
Lord Mandelson yesterday
'Migrants are filling gaps in our labour market that Britons are not available to fill or unwilling to fill. There has not been an adverse effect on employment of British nationals'
Mandelson in March 2009.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TGRIugWJ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
'I think we have to realise that the entry of migrants to the labour market is hard for people who are finding it very difficult to get jobs, or to keep jobs' is plain and simple language and very damaging. It confirms fears in a single sentence.
I'm going to spare the details here not least because they make me feel pretty ill. BBC Top story.
This really is a very stupid policy for the parties to follow and will only backfire on them. As we saw in the lead up to May 2nd, for every off colour tweet or facebook entry that the Tories unearthed, it was possible to find cases of sitting Tory councillors who had either been suspended or arrested for comments or actions that were as bad or in many cases far worse than the original claims. In the end their idiotic plan only served to help UKIP.
I see no reason why similar actions by any of the other three parties won't result in a similar response and with their greater number of councillors they have far more to fear than UKIP in a mud slinging fight.
Who, I wonder posted this on 4 Oct 2012?
"With reference to SeanT's suggestion last night of backing Borussia
Dortmund to win the Champions League (currently best priced at 22/1
with SkyBet), on a more modest scale they are on offer to qualify
from Group D (i.e. finish top 2) at odds of 5/6 compared with their
main rival, Man City's slightly longer odds of 10/11.
"Those who consider that Roberto Mancini's team are likely to be edged out
at this pre-knockout stage might decide to avail themselves instead of Stan
James' odds of 6.5/1 against the City manager still being in place on
the last day of the 2012-2013 Premier League season."
Modesty prevents .........
Come on, you don't expect tim to read and understand the tweets he is posting here?
TBH, I can see a large number of voters thinking that a non-PC Kipper is a breath of fresh air when all others fall over themselves to be anodyne.
And as you note - all parties have their fair share of oops comments made by their own side - just look at Lord Ahmed resigning from Labour today as an example...
RT @PeoplesPledgeEU: We've logged 20 pro-ref Lab MPs, new @Lab4aRef group lists others, plus 8 DUP, 1 Lib, 1 Green. Could be close!
"The ICM 2010 voters now saying Ukip CON 27%, LAB 13% LD 12%"
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/334246099323863040
Labour on 13%, UKIP on null.
My mistake. Re-reading that, I think this must refer to the proportion of 2010 voters that have switched to UKIP.
Have to say I am struggling to see how that is very different to anything that Ed Miliband or other members of the Labour front bench have said.
http://news.sky.com/story/1060665/miliband-low-skill-immigration-is-too-high
Incidentally, I'v backed Red bull at 1.9 for the title, mostly because I'm green now for Ferrari and Lotus and evens if Red Bull get it.
I've also put small sums on Rosberg and Hamilton to win in Monaco (longer odds for the latter on Ladbrokes). I think it's quite likely one of them will get pole, at which point I may hedge. Not really a tip, but the early discussion for Monaco should have some interesting potential bets to ruminate upon.
Here is a slightly less happy betting slip... a missed Brentwood penalty in the last minute of the season to blame
pic.twitter.com/XjLwbTlYOY
My general point is that recent events have shown that any claims the Tories put country before party are laughable.
http://news.sky.com/story/1060665/miliband-low-skill-immigration-is-too-high
I think you'll find the issue's the timing, they weren't saying that 7 or 8 years ago and were questioning the motives of anyone who raised the question.
What about the SNP ? They love a referendum.
Any sign of rEd flipping to the other side of 50/50 ?
Of course he should be in the House of Commons explaining economics 101 to idiotic bankbenchers who want to ask about some closure in their town.
Yes, I agree. As I have said many times before on here I think Labour got it very wrong on immigration. What I do not buy into is that it was all some kind of conspiracy. It was much more that an urban elite which had little idea of the real world and an ideological sympathy with internaitonalism was so isolated from reality it did not foresee the trouble that loosening restrictions on people coming into the country would create. Now Labour has to prove that it does get it.