Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Cripes - just seen the Mandy story - he really is rattling his chains this time.

    "Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.

    In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.

    He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work. By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.

    Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham. The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009.

    Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TFAfPTTN
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,157
    Are those precedents showing Tories doing well in the Euros, or are they showing oppositions doing well in the Euros?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Hmm - from the Rowntree Foundation no less.

    Scepticism about the benefits system has increased more among Labour voters than Tories in recent years, a major survey found yesterday.

    Nearly half of Labour supporters, 46 per cent, think benefit cuts would encourage claimants to ‘stand on their feet’ and find work. That compares to the 16 per cent who favoured cuts in 1987 when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister.

    And it is more than the 43 per cent of Conservative voters who believed in 1989 that if benefits were less generous more people would provide for themselves.

    Now, 68 per cent of Tories think benefits are too high and encourage dependency.

    In 1989, 46 per cent of Labour supporters thought social injustice was the main cause of poverty. By 2010, despite the recession, only 27 per cent did.

    The plunging support for the benefits system emerged in a survey for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. It said in a report that the gap on welfare between Tory and Labour supporters is narrowing.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324116/Labours-supporters-rejecting-benefits-culture-faster-Tories-nearly-half-thinking-cuts-encourage-people-stand-feet.html#ixzz2TFC96WdL

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    Or does it? Lots of wishful thinking here. Still as they say, "if wishes were fishes, we'd all be eating fish and chips".

  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    I think the columns right in principle. Where i disagree is
    the idea thatukip performance as councillors is relevant. Correct me if im wrong but they haven't won control anywhere so they will have continued licence to carry on whinging e
    without doing. This appears to hit their voter demographic perfectly.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    and there we have the failure to understand the UKIP at it's most fundamental.

    It's not about Europe, never really was. A withdrawal from Europe doesn't change it's purpose. It's about culture, group identification and fear of change.

    You could move the UK to a EFTA position tomorrow and not change it's purpose.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    10/1 looks likes a good bet, but anything shorter is not - depending on how things go over the next year any of Lab, Con or Ukip could win the vote. Good chance for one last free kick at the government before people start paying attention to the GE.

    Today's YouGov with changes on 2 weeks ago. Ukip are up from an average of 11 over March and April. Remember when Labour used to regularly poll 42 or 43?

    Con 31 (+1)
    Lab 38 (-1)
    Ukip 14 (--)
    LD 10 (-1)
    Oth 7 (--)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    If they don't actually hold a referendum, it's just talk.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    edited May 2013
    Plato said:

    Cripes - just seen the Mandy story - he really is rattling his chains this time.

    "Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.

    In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.

    He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work. By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.

    Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham. The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009.

    Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TFAfPTTN

    Brecht's quip about the government dissolving the people and choosing a new one was meant to be ironic, Labour use it as a blueprint for government.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    Or does it? Lots of wishful thinking here. Still as they say, "if wishes were fishes, we'd all be eating fish and chips".

    Given that the Euros are mainly seen as an oppo to kick HMG and then as a serious vote choice [like the LEs but with not much relevance to daily life at all], I'd expect the Kippers to do very well - however, these are a year away and two factors will be in play - the economy and immigration/EU/ECHR stuff - which are bundled together in many minds.

    How HMG are perceived as doing will have an impact - the EU ref question will hopefully have been resolved by then, so those who feel we need to repatriate some powers will feel somewhat reassured and the rest of the population ditto if things carry on picking up.

    Hardcore Kippers won't care a jot what the Tories say - or Labour, a % of the NOTA voters can be brought home to their former parties - its all to play for and I can't wait for the fun and games :^ )
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    YouGov - Labour on 7:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 13th May - CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    EU (vs 3days ago)
    Stay: 34(+4)
    Leave: 44(-3)

    Post Cameron renegotiation:
    Stay: 45(=)
    Leave: 33(+1)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    YouGov - Labour on 7:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 13th May - CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    EU (vs 3days ago)
    Stay: 34(+4)
    Leave: 44(-3)

    Post Cameron renegotiation:
    Stay: 45(=)
    Leave: 33(+1)

    What was your reaction to Obama's comments? I reflexively didn't like them, but its being heralded in the press as a *good thing* for Cameron. And I'm in favour of staying in but on different terms.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is a very good bet.

    However, the Pavlovian reaction of the average Conservative MP when the subject of the EU is raised (to dribble and to bark crazily) means that this is not a bet for the fainthearted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,895
    tim said:

    More Tory hilarity

    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan 1m
    Baron and Bone pocket Dave's concession and hold their hands out for more. So that went well @BBCr4today

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 4m
    John Baron on @BBCr4today now giving the Prime Minister his orders for the day.

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 4m
    "Well, it's a step in the right direction," says Baron. "What we need is a *Government* Bill,' says Bone. Somewhere in DC Dave weeps softly

    We must all hope that at some stage the Tories decide to start prioritising what should happen over the next few years, rather than what might happen at the start of the next decade. God knows this country has enough problems to deal with right now. It would be nice to see them given some more thought, as opposed to what is pretty marginal stuff in the great scheme of things.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Plato said:

    YouGov - Labour on 7:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 13th May - CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -33

    EU (vs 3days ago)
    Stay: 34(+4)
    Leave: 44(-3)

    Post Cameron renegotiation:
    Stay: 45(=)
    Leave: 33(+1)

    What was your reaction to Obama's comments? I reflexively didn't like them, but its being heralded in the press as a *good thing* for Cameron. And I'm in favour of staying in but on different terms.
    It struck me as anodyne - the sort of thing you might say to distant friends whose marriage is crumbling - and given the US strategic interest in the UK staying in, pretty bland. I'm not sure what else he could have said without "interfering in domestic UK politics".

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Like most people I don't mind immigration if it is controlled, you appear to have difficulty with the concept.

    And as ever you cannot point to any UK specific evidence that mass immigration has made us better off. If immigration makes us all richer why has the economy been stagnant for a decade ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SouthamObserver The fervour of the Homoousians to vanquish the Homoiousians is startling to behold. Meanwhile the barbarians are at the gate.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,572
    edited May 2013
    Marches said:

    I think the columns right in principle. Where i disagree is
    the idea thatukip performance as councillors is relevant. Correct me if im wrong but they haven't won control anywhere so they will have continued licence to carry on whinging e
    without doing. This appears to hit their voter demographic perfectly.

    Ramsey Council has been run by UKIP for a while, Marches.

    I have heard that it is run well, but that may just be hearsay.

    http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2012/11/ukip-ramsey-in-financial-times.html
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Ignoring the distraction for a minute, Mandelson just admitted New Labour and their cheerleaders were lying through their teeth for 14 years.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,895
    antifrank said:

    @SouthamObserver The fervour of the Homoousians to vanquish the Homoiousians is startling to behold. Meanwhile the barbarians are at the gate.

    Current events certainly put to bed the always fanciful notion that the Tory instinct is to put country before party. What we are seeing is self indulgence of the highest order. The Bennites are back and this time they are dressed in blue.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,118
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hard to see anyone but UKIP topping that poll, I think. Good luck with the bets, though.

    Imagine if we did leave the EU, and it went perfectly smoothly. Would the Conservatives calm down a bit? Find something else to be pathologically fixated upon?

    I think we should leave, but the approach of some to the matter (now. RIGHT NOW! I know we said that your speech promising a referendum was enough but that was 2 months ago) is as if they've been consumed by their id.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Ignoring the distraction for a minute, Mandelson just admitted New Labour and their cheerleaders were lying through their teeth for 14 years.
    LOL, I think we sort of knew that ;-)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038

    Plato said:

    Cripes - just seen the Mandy story - he really is rattling his chains this time.

    "Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.

    In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.

    He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work. By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.

    Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham. The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009.

    Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TFAfPTTN

    Brecht's quip about the government dissolving the people and choosing a new one was meant to be ironic, Labour use it as a blueprint for government.
    Remember IOS demanding that people he disapproves of be expelled from their own country ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338
    edited May 2013
    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?
    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,118
    F1: when I'm a bit less sleepy I'll have a look at Monaco.

    Also, if the tyres are hardened that could mean more advantage for Red Bull, but could also increase the hope of Hamilton finishing top 3, perhaps.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,162
    Tim, I think Labour were 15% ahead in the 1994 Euros.

    The 1999 Euros were interesting because, for the first time, people began voting about the EU, rather than treating them as a mid-term referendum on the government.

    I think UKIP will top the poll next year, because I don't think the public are particularly interested in scrutinising them at this point (they will do, as the General Election approaches).
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Ignoring the distraction for a minute, Mandelson just admitted New Labour and their cheerleaders were lying through their teeth for 14 years.
    Yeah right.
    It's the Jews and the BBC, we know the line
    Only in your strange fantasy world.

    In the real world didn't Mandelson just admit New Labour betrayed their voters as a matter of policy or am i missing something?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Ignoring the distraction for a minute, Mandelson just admitted New Labour and their cheerleaders were lying through their teeth for 14 years.
    Yeah right.
    It's the Jews and the BBC, we know the line
    Isn't your line admit nothing, apologise for nothing ? Certainly seems to be the way for Blank Eddie.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038
    "Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example"

    So we have a labour shortage ?

    I take it you wont be highlighting the increase in unemployment to be announced this week.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,162
    IOS seems quite keen on mass deportation.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
    The half-witney can't manage his party it's why he's in a mess. if he had any inkling about managing a broad church he'd be breathing down Ed's neck at the mid term and walking towards an election victory.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,054
    As a blue fan on the non-sceptic, now marginal side of the party, this European obsession (yet again....) is so exasperating. These Barons and Bones are displaying political awareness on a macro political scale equivalent to a No. 10 adviser saying school fees keep him/her up at night It ain't Europe keeping people up at night - someone tell the UKIP Blues.

    Just when Labour's wobbling, the economic signs are all turning positive etc etc

    It would seem all 3 parties would rather be in opposition these days. Life must be much easier there if you are an MP who isn't ever going to be in Government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645

    Plato said:

    Cripes - just seen the Mandy story - he really is rattling his chains this time.

    "Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.

    In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.

    He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work. By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.

    Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham. The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009.

    Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TFAfPTTN

    Brecht's quip about the government dissolving the people and choosing a new one was meant to be ironic, Labour use it as a blueprint for government.
    Remember IOS demanding that people he disapproves of be expelled from their own country ?
    I think that's the George Orwell problem. Righties read Orwell and take the message on state and group control, lefties read it and think Big Brother and the pigs had some corking ideas. ;-)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,338

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
    The half-witney can't manage his party it's why he's in a mess. if he had any inkling about managing a broad church he'd be breathing down Ed's neck at the mid term and walking towards an election victory.
    Well he is sort of breathing down Ed's neck @ a 6pt lead mid-term. But what looked to be an understandable (!) tendency to blow in the wind on election has manifested itself into something more permanent. He needs to lose that sharpish.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645

    "Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example"

    So we have a labour shortage ?

    I take it you wont be highlighting the increase in unemployment to be announced this week.


    it's better than that, we have a labour shortage because our world class schools can't produce employable youngsters.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
    If Cameron didn't respond to the Kipper threat - PB would be full of critical posters saying he was complacent blah blah - its a zero sum game. I think the Tories allowed the issue to drift for far too long, but they're grasping the nettle now - and the sooner the better in my book.

    I'm not bothered about the micro-details or what political pundits say about it being whatever the hyperbole de jour is - it needed sorting and hopefully that's now at least being addressed.

    TBH, Labour has a much bigger issue on its hands by a long chalk, EdM said only a few weeks ago that he was against a referendum at all...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,538
    Big pharmacy companies like Boots appear still to be advertising in the EU for pharmacists although there appear to be un or under-employed pharmacists in UK, and the number of universities offering pharmacy here has risen significantly. Of courseit takes time for that to have an effect, but it's beginning to show.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,118
    Indeed, Mr. Scrapheap. Whilst coming at the EU from a very different angle to yourself I agree that this fixation over and above everything is verging on political self-harm.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
    The half-witney can't manage his party it's why he's in a mess. if he had any inkling about managing a broad church he'd be breathing down Ed's neck at the mid term and walking towards an election victory.
    Well he is sort of breathing down Ed's neck @ a 6pt lead mid-term. But what looked to be an understandable (!) tendency to blow in the wind on election has manifested itself into something more permanent. He needs to lose that sharpish.
    He's nowhere near it, he needs to gain 13-14 points to get a majority and has 2 years to do it. And in his period of govt. he has made little progress in the areas of the country where he needs to win an election - Midlands, North - and is now under pressure in his back yard. Most of his dilemna is self inflicted.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038
    tim said:

    German economy fuelled by nearly one million immigrants in 2012

    Conspiracy or a product of a low birth rate in Germany for years and their economy being in relatively good shape?

    Germany's economy is in relatively good shape because of over a decade of wage restraint resulting in stagnant or falling living standards.

    More immigrants encourages that trend, whether the German workers approve is another matter.

    I don't know what effect that had on German productivity but its clearly had a negative one in the UK.

    Though I do find it curious that the PB lefties now support downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on living costs.

    At what point did reducing economic and social mobility and increasing inequalities in society become fashionable in left wing circles ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645

    tim said:

    German economy fuelled by nearly one million immigrants in 2012

    Conspiracy or a product of a low birth rate in Germany for years and their economy being in relatively good shape?

    Germany's economy is in relatively good shape because of over a decade of wage restraint resulting in stagnant or falling living standards.

    More immigrants encourages that trend, whether the German workers approve is another matter.

    I don't know what effect that had on German productivity but its clearly had a negative one in the UK.

    Though I do find it curious that the PB lefties now support downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on living costs.

    At what point did reducing economic and social mobility and increasing inequalities in society become fashionable in left wing circles ?
    You could tell the Labour party was dead when it became acceptable for MPs to be called Quentin.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038

    "Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example"

    So we have a labour shortage ?

    I take it you wont be highlighting the increase in unemployment to be announced this week.


    it's better than that, we have a labour shortage because our world class schools can't produce employable youngsters.
    That's impossible and the exam results prove it.

    Don't forget either that we also have the best universities in the world.

    Scumbag University in the London Borough of Shitsville is renowed for the quality of its media studies graduates.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,973
    edited May 2013
    Plato said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is Cam doing with this effing stupid Bill?

    Plato said:

    First!?

    That seems like a reasonable proposition - and if the Tories plans to get legislation on the books or at least a serious attempt at it before 2014 - it does spike Kipper guns somewhat.

    It doesn't spike them at all - it emboldens UKIP and confirms that they are setting the agenda.

    Europe is only a (vague) perception in peoples' minds - it's not as though Europe has moved in three doors down and is playing loud music. If pressed I bet 96% of people couldn't name one thing they dislike about our membeship (there is plenty not to like but nothing "sexy"). So trying to allay such nebulous fears is doomed not to succeed.

    It also gives the petty, small-minded, solipsistic Cons backbenchers a day in the sun and that is irritating as hell.
    If Cameron didn't respond to the Kipper threat - PB would be full of critical posters saying he was complacent blah blah - its a zero sum game. I think the Tories allowed the issue to drift for far too long, but they're grasping the nettle now - and the sooner the better in my book.

    I'm not bothered about the micro-details or what political pundits say about it being whatever the hyperbole de jour is - it needed sorting and hopefully that's now at least being addressed.

    TBH, Labour has a much bigger issue on its hands by a long chalk, EdM said only a few weeks ago that he was against a referendum at all...
    That assumes that there is a majority out vote. Part of the EU problem has been the failure over a 25 year period to make any sort of a case for membership that resonates with peoples lives. If I was masterminding the in case I would start by reminding farmers where their subsidies come from. Without the French to keep CAP on the agenda, farm subsidies made by a UK govt will fall. There are plenty of opportunities that have not been taken to point to where EU membership has been good for particular groups and areas. And I say this as a personally undecided, albeit lean in.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,118
    Interesting little piece about the Hell of Dante and Milton:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22512160
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I agree with Toby Young here. It's pushing Labour and the LDs into an even clearer choice than before, some see it as weakness and folding into UKIP - I see it as bowing to public opinion cleverly focussed by UKIP and catching their oppos out by biting the bullet first.

    ...If John Baron predicted that this would be the Prime Minister's response to his amendment to the Queen's Speech, then hats off to him. As I blogged last week, this is exactly the move that Cameron should make.

    Some critics (David Aaronovitch, John Rentoul, etc) have objected that this move is pointless because (a) Cameron won't be able to get it through the House of Commons and (b) no Parliament can bind its successor. That's a tad literal-minded of them. Okay, it might not pass, but in the event of it being defeated the Conservatives will come out smelling of roses. If the Lib Dems vote against it, they'll look like hyprocrites – an EU referendum was in their 2010 manifesto, after all. And if Labour vote against it, they'll look like they don't think the British public should have a say on this important matter. Unlikely to be a vote winner, given that confidence in our elected representatives is at an all time low.

    My colleague Iain Martin has dismissed this move as "game playing" and "contemptible politics". If there's no chance of this Bill being passed, why waste time on it, given that there are much more important things the next Parliament should be getting on with? Well, that's politics, I'm afraid, and there's no such thing as respectable politics. And the claim that this is a distraction at a time when the government should be focusing on economic growth – the Labour line being put out this evening – is itself just… politics.

    The real question is whether this move succeeds in putting Labour and the Lib Dems on the back foot. We shall see, but I think it will. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100216756/getting-behind-a-referendum-bill-is-a-smart-move-on-camerons-part/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    just nonsense, have you even ever been to Germany or do you learn about it from the internet ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    @Monksfield

    "If I was masterminding the in case I would start by reminding farmers where there subsidies come from."

    None of the many farmers I know like CAP or subsidises - they want to return to running a family business and making a living from it not filling in forms and getting handouts. In my final stint working at the Rural Payments Agency - we sent farmers 999 pages of guidance and rules about how to fill in claim forms. Now what does that say about the system?

    The lack of understanding by those who think *farmers* are all Brian Alridge Range Rover Vogue types speaks volumes.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038
    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    How many of the people retiring are themselves former immigrants and wont the new immigrants themselves retire one day ?

    What will you suggest at that point ? Let me guess - yet more immigrants.

    A human ponzi scheme.

    An ageing population and more pensioners is inevitable and at some point has to be dealt with. That point can be postponed but postponing problems usually tends to make them worse in the long run.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    "Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example"

    So we have a labour shortage ?

    I take it you wont be highlighting the increase in unemployment to be announced this week.


    it's better than that, we have a labour shortage because our world class schools can't produce employable youngsters.
    That's impossible and the exam results prove it.

    Don't forget either that we also have the best universities in the world.

    Scumbag University in the London Borough of Shitsville is renowed for the quality of its media studies graduates.
    And without unlimited overseas students signing up with Scumbag college, the local mcDonalds is at risk of being unable to recruit.

    Will no one think of the children etc.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 7m
    Lib Dem Norman Lamb @bbcr4today signals they won't allow govt time for referendum bill - "our focus is on jobs and growth"

    Because being in the EU is really good for jobs and growth!

  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    @PtP Ramsey Council has been run by UKIP for a while, Marches. I have heard that it is run well, but that may just be hearsay.

    RC appears to be little more than a parish council. I'd be wary of extrapolating competence from that (withough commenting on whether competence is being shown).

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,973
    edited May 2013
    Plato said:

    @Monksfield

    "If I was masterminding the in case I would start by reminding farmers where there subsidies come from."

    None of the many farmers I know like CAP or subsidises - they want to return to running a family business and making a living from it not filling in forms and getting handouts. In my final stint working at the Rural Payments Agency - we sent farmers 999 pages of guidance and rules about how to fill in claim forms. Now what does that say about the system?

    The lack of understanding by those who think *farmers* are all Brian Alridge Range Rover Vogue types speaks volumes.

    These family farms will be first to the slaughter in a completely global market exposed farming industry. They'll disappear under big agri business in the same way that the supermarkets have destroyed the corner shops. SFPS is the only thing thats keeping many of them going.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    Unlimited cheap labour destroys the need for technological innovation and technological innovation is what made western countries prosperous.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    @Monksfield

    "If I was masterminding the in case I would start by reminding farmers where there subsidies come from."

    None of the many farmers I know like CAP or subsidises - they want to return to running a family business and making a living from it not filling in forms and getting handouts. In my final stint working at the Rural Payments Agency - we sent farmers 999 pages of guidance and rules about how to fill in claim forms. Now what does that say about the system?

    The lack of understanding by those who think *farmers* are all Brian Alridge Range Rover Vogue types speaks volumes.

    These family farms will be first to the slaughter in a completely global market exposed farming industry. They'll disappear under big agri business in the same way that the supermarkets have destroyed the corner shops. SFPS is the only thing thats keeping many of them going.
    Do you have some evidence for your case here?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    German economy fuelled by nearly one million immigrants in 2012

    Conspiracy or a product of a low birth rate in Germany for years and their economy being in relatively good shape?

    These one million immigrants, did they come from Romania and Bulgaria, or from other parts of the EU? If so how long can these countries tolerate being stripped of their youth?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I think Labour were 15% ahead in the 1994 Euros.

    The 1999 Euros were interesting because, for the first time, people began voting about the EU, rather than treating them as a mid-term referendum on the government.

    I think UKIP will top the poll next year, because I don't think the public are particularly interested in scrutinising them at this point (they will do, as the General Election approaches).

    The scrutiny question is most significant. How long will, especially the Conservative leaning, press give Ukip a pass on policy questions and when will Farage and co be given the Kinnock treatment as the prospect of a potential PM Miliband beckons ?



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    just nonsense, have you even ever been to Germany or do you learn about it from the internet ?
    I look forward to your anecdotes about how you counted all the Germans and noted their ages.


    I look forward to your views on "anecdotes" as always. What about this one:

    "This Government are taking away people’s security and piece of mind and causing worry and anxiety. And I’ve heard anecdotally that the suicide rate is increasing." - Andy Burnham

    Andy "slowlane" Burnham, proof that evolution can go backwards.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will Kate Hoey support the bill ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Marches said:

    @PtP Ramsey Council has been run by UKIP for a while, Marches. I have heard that it is run well, but that may just be hearsay.

    RC appears to be little more than a parish council. I'd be wary of extrapolating competence from that (withough commenting on whether competence is being shown).

    The population of Ramsey according to Wiki is 6,060 ...
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182

    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Here's another govt conspiracy

    Govts always encourage immigration to fill labour shortages.
    This govt is doing it now, for example

    http://www.oilcareers.com/onstream/2013/04/11/uk-government-relaxes-immigration-rules/

    And what do you think the increase in intra-company transfers was?

    British companies are bypassing the government's cap on skilled migrants by bringing in staff from their plants and offices overseas, an official report has found.

    Figures from the Home Office's migration advisory committee show that the numbers coming to Britain under the "intra-company transfer" scheme have surged in the past two years and now outnumber those coming into Britain on work visas by three to one. The rise has rendered the cap on skilled overseas migrants redundant, with fewer than half the work visas available under the annual limit being used.

    Ignoring the distraction for a minute, Mandelson just admitted New Labour and their cheerleaders were lying through their teeth for 14 years.
    Yeah right.
    It's the Jews and the BBC, we know the line
    Isn't your line admit nothing, apologise for nothing ? Certainly seems to be the way for Blank Eddie.
    Yes that's the labour voters approach on here
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,384
    Looks a value bet - it basically needs the UKIP bubble to burst and Tories to come home - not wildly likely IMO but more than 10%.

    The latest polls are a good example of the importance of "salience". The Tories thrashing about on Europe is making the issue look extremely important, which damages them (because Cameron isn't willing to go all the way with the sceptics) and also Labour (because it's not an issue where Labour traditionally wins votes). In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour and a major military issue tends to help the Tories, even if the particular development isn't helpful - people focus on the current headlines and think "which party do I reckon is best in this area?"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,038
    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    Unlimited cheap labour destroys the need for technological innovation and technological innovation is what made western countries prosperous.
    Big wars tend to be a big driver for technological progress. They also tend to be times of labour shortages.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Just to add to the conversation :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10055149/Lord-Ahmed-quits-Labour-party-days-before-hearing.html

    Now who blames the media and 'Jews'
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    There's an article by Janet Daly that states the bleeding obvious, but it rather stuck with me about the difficulties the main parties have to contend with. The whole article is well worth 5 mins.

    "...Nobody can speak for everybody – at least, not at the same time.

    Political parties have now abandoned their quasi-official connections with particular interests or classes. They present themselves instead as the embodiments of philosophies of government (sometimes known as ideologies). But the break with the old system is not clean. The philosophy of low-tax/small-government tends to be seen as inextricably bound up with those who are better-off and thus more self-sufficient, and its big-state/high-tax alternative as being more concerned with the disadvantaged who need help. The task of almost all the political disputation of our time has been to persuade the electorate that these associations are not inevitable. Thus, Right-of-centre parties argue that small government and low taxes spread prosperity and enable poorer people to become independent, while Left-of-centre ones assert that only government redistribution of wealth can ensure the social stability that benefits everyone, even the more affluent.

    All political leaders must now claim to represent entire populations, and they do this by arguing that their party’s beliefs will inevitably benefit every group in the country. This is, of course, not true. At least, it isn’t true in any permanent sense. No philosophy of government is the eternal answer to the question of how life can be made better because the question itself changes through time. In 1945, the question, and thus the winning answer, was different from the one that dominated the national consciousness in 1979.

    So where does this leave the party leaders who are trying to persuade us that they speak for the whole nation? The party that succeeds in any given generation is the one that convinces us that its philosophy or moral precepts – even if they spring from a particular class or cultural background – are universally applicable. Labour won the post-war argument with its socialist prospectus because the solidarity of war-time seemed to lead naturally into a state-run cooperative economy. The Conservatives took the country in 1979 because the power of the trades unions appeared blatantly unjust to most people. In both cases, the political messages – which had grown out of specific class or sectional roots – were turned into visions with which great numbers of voters who did not share those roots, could identify. And that, in brief, is the way modern elections are won." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10050593/No-party-can-truly-speak-for-everyone.html
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,973
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    @Monksfield

    "If I was masterminding the in case I would start by reminding farmers where there subsidies come from."

    None of the many farmers I know like CAP or subsidises - they want to return to running a family business and making a living from it not filling in forms and getting handouts. In my final stint working at the Rural Payments Agency - we sent farmers 999 pages of guidance and rules about how to fill in claim forms. Now what does that say about the system?

    The lack of understanding by those who think *farmers* are all Brian Alridge Range Rover Vogue types speaks volumes.

    These family farms will be first to the slaughter in a completely global market exposed farming industry. They'll disappear under big agri business in the same way that the supermarkets have destroyed the corner shops. SFPS is the only thing thats keeping many of them going.
    Do you have some evidence for your case here?
    I don't need evidence Plato. It's simple economics. It's happened in every other industry and it's already happening in farming, even with CAP giving every landowner 90 odd quid a hectare per year for simply having registered land. The cold wind of global economics has laid waste to all our other production industries and the only way farming will survive in the world market is by bigger, more efficient and more environmentally damaging practices eg superfarms. Anyway, off to work.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    It seems unlikely that UKIP will underperform in the Euros. It's their key issue. Their would need to be radical change of opinion towards the EU for that to happen.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I think Labour were 15% ahead in the 1994 Euros.

    The 1999 Euros were interesting because, for the first time, people began voting about the EU, rather than treating them as a mid-term referendum on the government.

    I think UKIP will top the poll next year, because I don't think the public are particularly interested in scrutinising them at this point (they will do, as the General Election approaches).

    The scrutiny question is most significant. How long will, especially the Conservative leaning, press give Ukip a pass on policy questions and when will Farage and co be given the Kinnock treatment as the prospect of a potential PM Miliband beckons ?


    As one guarding the Scottish ramparts against the deadly UKIP, your remark re, scrutiny is pertinent. The task for UKIP is to keep building it's organisation, finalise it's policies by the autumn conference, and continue recruiting. By these means UKIP will finally come in from the cold to join the mainstream parties in recognition, but still be completely different from them, politically.

    Have you got slings and arrows ready to repel them. JackW?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    Blue_rog said:

    Just to add to the conversation :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10055149/Lord-Ahmed-quits-Labour-party-days-before-hearing.html

    Now who blames the media and 'Jews'

    yeah but that's different because he was leftwing and he made a fair point which was distorted by the rightwing press and it's funny that people have singled him out because he's a minority and this isn't an issue about discrimination it's about fairness and the racist tories......... to infinity and beyond.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @tim

    "Although Major managed to win a majority, which hapless Dave couldn't "

    As you know full well, the reason Cameron isn't PM of a Conservative government is the bias in FPTP against them on 36% of the vote - 2005/2010 GE's refer.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Poor polls for Labour last night.

    And the Ukip share in the ICM... wow.

    Labour nowhere near where they need to be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,969
    There is a possibility UKIP could take, say, about 22% raise its vote share and yet actually come third if say the Tories slipped back, but only to 23% and Labour could raise its vote share to about the same by squeezing the LD and Green vote. Coming second in 2009 that would be a blow to UKIP and Cameron would have sapped their momentum with about a year to go until 2015, he could then clearly argue only a Tory vote will stop further EU integration if UKIP cannot even win under PR!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    Unlimited cheap labour destroys the need for technological innovation and technological innovation is what made western countries prosperous.

    Of course, the USA's economic failure in the 20th century being the primary example.
    Along with the German post war boom
    The USA had an immigration moratorium between 1924 and 1965.
    Germany lost 3-4 million men in the war and thus had a massive labour shortage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,969
    Plato - That largely reflects the fact in 1989 we had had ten years of Tory government, while now we have had 13 years of Labour government and not yet a majority Tory one
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,118
    Indeed, Mr. Brooke. I still recall Ahmed threatening to summon a horde of 10,000 angry Muslims if Geert Wilders was allowed to show Fitna.
  • Ramsey has been very well run by Peter Reeve, with his partner Lisa Duffy as mayor for 3/4 years. Peter Reeve is now leader of the 12 UKIP councillors on Cambridgeshire CC, and a very good job he'll make of it.

    The UK has been in the EEC (now EU) for 40 years. This govt has been in power for 3. Total progress on 'reform from inside'? Approximately zero? And yet Cameron expects us to believe that he is capable of derailing their main objective: ever greater union? When he has publicly stated that he wants to stay in, thus shafting his own negotiating position before he starts?


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    JackW said:

    @tim

    "Although Major managed to win a majority, which hapless Dave couldn't "

    As you know full well, the reason Cameron isn't PM of a Conservative government is the bias in FPTP against them on 36% of the vote - 2005/2010 GE's refer.

    That old excuse. Major and Cameron fought on broadly the same boundaries. It's two decades of poor Tory strategy that saw the left of party leave that is to blame. In 1992 they said Labour could not win under FPTP.

    Labour did something about it, while the Tories just complain to a ref that isn't there.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour....

    Mid-Staffs was helpful to Labour? Maybe Nick thinks the 1,200 dead were Tory voters.
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    @ Plato The population of Ramsey according to Wiki is 6,060 ...

    Your point is?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    Unlimited cheap labour destroys the need for technological innovation and technological innovation is what made western countries prosperous.
    Big wars tend to be a big driver for technological progress. They also tend to be times of labour shortages.
    Necessity is the mother of invention. If you take the necessity away you lose the invention.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tim, I think Labour were 15% ahead in the 1994 Euros.

    The 1999 Euros were interesting because, for the first time, people began voting about the EU, rather than treating them as a mid-term referendum on the government.

    I think UKIP will top the poll next year, because I don't think the public are particularly interested in scrutinising them at this point (they will do, as the General Election approaches).

    The scrutiny question is most significant. How long will, especially the Conservative leaning, press give Ukip a pass on policy questions and when will Farage and co be given the Kinnock treatment as the prospect of a potential PM Miliband beckons ?


    As one guarding the Scottish ramparts against the deadly UKIP, your remark re, scrutiny is pertinent. The task for UKIP is to keep building it's organisation, finalise it's policies by the autumn conference, and continue recruiting. By these means UKIP will finally come in from the cold to join the mainstream parties in recognition, but still be completely different from them, politically.

    Have you got slings and arrows ready to repel them. JackW?

    A number of Kipper policies appear contradictory re how to finance increases in MoD spending, free university fees and cutting spending et al - I can see how UKIP can get away with such pledges now, but how do you think Mr Farage will address the sweeties for all issue?

    Labour try doing it using the Bankers Bonus Tax that's already been spent 7x over, UKIP appear to be trying the same re not spending £50m a day on Brussels... neither are very convincing on closer inspection.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I don't need evidence

    Unspoofable etc etc

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    GeoffM said:

    In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour....

    Mid-Staffs was helpful to Labour? Maybe Nick thinks the 1,200 dead were Tory voters.
    There weren't 1200 dead.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Golly. Banging on about immigration, welfare and Europe is as brilliant a master strategy as the simple souls thought it would be.

    Crikey, much more of this and Farage and UKIP will be begging for mercy.

    Just look at the damage the other parties are taking while Cammie shows the voters his bold vision of making the tory party run about like headless chickens.
    Mark Thompson ‏@MarkReckons

    "why should any Tory bother being loyal or trying to peddle the party line any more? It could change at any minute." http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2013/05/tory-leadership-publishes-draft-eu-referendum-bill-in-a-panic-and-fails-to-convince-backbenchers/
    Remember the bleeding obvious - nobody can speak for everybody unless they are a serial labour voting floating voter with a fiscal conservative twist who spins for Cammie.

    Cripes! ;^ )
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    GeoffM said:

    In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour....

    Mid-Staffs was helpful to Labour? Maybe Nick thinks the 1,200 dead were Tory voters.
    Laughs grimly.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Carswell back in the tent this morning ....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    BenM said:

    Poor polls for Labour last night.

    And the Ukip share in the ICM... wow.

    Labour nowhere near where they need to be.

    Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Anotherrichard

    Germany is trying to avoid this

    Germany faces up to problem of ageing workforce
    Nation prepares to cope with loss of up to 5 million workers over the next decade and a half


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/new-europe-germany-retirement-pensions-exports

    Which thanks to a rising birth rate and immigration over the last decade we have avoided.
    Italy and Spain have that nightmare

    Unlimited cheap labour destroys the need for technological innovation and technological innovation is what made western countries prosperous.

    Of course, the USA's economic failure in the 20th century being the primary example.
    Along with the German post war boom
    The USA had an immigration moratorium between 1924 and 1965.
    Germany lost 3-4 million men in the war and thus had a massive labour shortage.
    http://www.willisms.com/archives/immigrationtousa.gif
    It doesn't matter. The logic is simple. If businesses can make more money by importing and hiring cheaper workers then there is less pressure for technological innovation.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    BenM said:

    GeoffM said:

    In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour....

    Mid-Staffs was helpful to Labour? Maybe Nick thinks the 1,200 dead were Tory voters.
    There weren't 1200 dead.

    Never make the mistake of trying to be reasonable with a tea party tory. You're basically arguing with the Sarah Palin fruitcake wing.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Golly. Banging on about immigration, welfare and Europe is as brilliant a master strategy as the simple souls thought it would be.

    Crikey, much more of this and Farage and UKIP will be begging for mercy.

    Just look at the damage the other parties are taking while Cammie shows the voters his bold vision of making the tory party run about like headless chickens.

    Mark Thompson ‏@MarkReckons

    "why should any Tory bother being loyal or trying to peddle the party line any more? It could change at any minute." http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2013/05/tory-leadership-publishes-draft-eu-referendum-bill-in-a-panic-and-fails-to-convince-backbenchers/
    Remember the bleeding obvious - nobody can speak for everybody unless they are a serial labour voting floating voter with a fiscal conservative twist who spins for Cammie.

    Cripes! ;^ )

    Matthew Parris
    @MatthewParris3
    Is my party going mad? What can I say on The Daily Politics today? Psychiatrist needed, not political commentator.

    So far we have Toby Young who disagrees.

    When is he ever wrong? *chortle*

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OGH v Dan Hodges
    Miliband simply does not have that sort of killer instinct. It’s not as if Cameron is his brother. But what has it come to when David Cameron is betting the future of his government on the Leader of the Opposition’s lack of ruthlessness?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100216795/david-cameron-has-lost-his-mind-his-euro-dithering-is-on-the-edge-of-putting-ed-miliband-in-no-10/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    Plato said:

    BenM said:

    Poor polls for Labour last night.

    And the Ukip share in the ICM... wow.

    Labour nowhere near where they need to be.

    Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
    Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,572
    edited May 2013
    Marches said:

    @PtP Ramsey Council has been run by UKIP for a while, Marches. I have heard that it is run well, but that may just be hearsay.

    RC appears to be little more than a parish council. I'd be wary of extrapolating competence from that (withough commenting on whether competence is being shown).


    Yes of course, Marches, nobody should extrapolate too far from the example of one small council. I never suggested otherwise. All I was pointing out was that UKIP do run a council somewhere in these Isles and by all accounts they do so well.

    I have no dog in this fight. I am not a UKIP voter and never likely to be.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Scott_P said:

    OGH v Dan Hodges

    Miliband simply does not have that sort of killer instinct. It’s not as if Cameron is his brother. But what has it come to when David Cameron is betting the future of his government on the Leader of the Opposition’s lack of ruthlessness?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100216795/david-cameron-has-lost-his-mind-his-euro-dithering-is-on-the-edge-of-putting-ed-miliband-in-no-10/

    I'd agree with Mr Hodges until he gets to Paras 9 onwards - then he loses his way. That it took until then to get to his point is a bit odd - I presume like Andrew Rawnsley et al he is very good at Labour politics and dropping a shoe trying to grasp the Tories. Very few commentators *get* the Party they don't naturally agree with.

    In fact, I can't think of any that do...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @tim and @jonathan

    Whilst I fully understand Labour don't do numbers the FACTS from the election numbers are clear :

    2005 - Lab 35.2% - 355 seats .. Con 31.7% - 198 seats

    2010 - Con 36.1% - 306 seats .. Lab 29% - 258 seats

    It has nothing to do with "whining" or the lead that Cameron enjoyed in the polls or the respective strategies of the parties but simply the in built bias enjoyed by Labour at certain levels of support with FPTP - Cameron outpolled Blair's 2005 % score but rather than having a comfortable majority Cameron leads a Coalition government.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Good thing nobody is taking advantage of the tory chaos to position themselves as a future leader.
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 57m

    With his brains, energy and fearlessness, Gove is emerging as the real Conservative leader - @PaulGoodmanCH http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/05/by-paul-goodmanfollow-paul-on-twitter-david-cameron-has-promised-an-in-out-referendum-on-the-eu-in-the-next-parliament-why.html
    Hammond and May need to weigh in with some more loyal Europe posturing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,776
    tim said:

    GeoffM said:

    In the same way, a major NHS issue tends to help Labour....

    Mid-Staffs was helpful to Labour? Maybe Nick thinks the 1,200 dead were Tory voters.
    Cameron blew the Tories apart on the NHS with his lies on a reorganisation
    Go and look at the polls.

    And the Labour-run NHS in Stafford blew apart many family lives. Go and look at the Francis report.

    This utter denial by many (although far from all) on the left over what happened at Stafford is perhaps the most sickening aspect of recent politics. Instead of hanging heads in shame, they try to pretend that nothing bad happened there, or divert the topic using "look:squirrel" tactics. See above for an example.

    Anyone who finds what went on at Stafford in any way acceptable, or tries to use the 'only one death' lie, or say that it was just poor practice, should really clear out their compassion filter.

    And before anyone accuses me of bias, I've said all along that it'll happen again, simply because most of the recommendations in the report will get kicked into the long grass, and because of institutional and political resistance to the necessary change.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,124
    Jonathan said:

    Plato said:

    BenM said:

    Poor polls for Labour last night.

    And the Ukip share in the ICM... wow.

    Labour nowhere near where they need to be.

    Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
    Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
    Problem is EdM doesn't actually know what he or his party stands for. He's very much the son of Brown in that he wants power for labour (and himself), but has no idea what to do with it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Jonathan said:

    Plato said:

    BenM said:

    Poor polls for Labour last night.

    And the Ukip share in the ICM... wow.

    Labour nowhere near where they need to be.

    Whilst we disagree about how to go about things - you're one of the most objective about Labour's prospects - what would you suggest EdM should do to improve his fortunes?
    Labour have had a nightmarish couple of months. Thatcher I think changed the terms of debate. UKIP have denied them oxygen. First thing is to use this storm to get things straight internally. And then hammer home any incompetence this govt shows.
    What needs to be *gotten straight* in your view? This is a fascinating time for the Big Three vs Kippers.
This discussion has been closed.