It does appear to have been a bit of a botched job
Cant have been as botched as the Treasury's analysis that was debunked today. The debasement of the fine tradition of civil service neutrality in the name of meeting their business objective of keeping Scotland in the UK is sad to witness.
"Impartiality – acting solely according to the merits of the case and serving governments of different political parties equally well"
Any reluctance to jump at the command of the government of the day risks a civil servant being found in breach of their duty of impartiality, even if doing so puts them in conflict of their duty of objectivity.
I dont think that botching an analysis is serving a Government well. There is no justification for Treasury to produce botched analyse to support the political manifestos of the parties that make up the government of the day - why have they openly taken a position on something as political as this referendum?
Now, who is going to commission the Orkney and Shetland poll... ?
Why, do we have some new Inverness-specific data?
Regarding the Northern Isles, these were the Euro results:
Orkney: LD 1825 (35.2%) SNP 872 (16.8%) Con 679 (13.1%) Green 619 (12%) UKIP 618 (11.9%) Lab 466 (9%)
Shetland: LD 1755 (33.9%) SNP 897 (17.3%) Green 638 (12.3%) UKIP 616 (11.9%) Lab 580 (11.4%) Con 543 (10.5%)
So, the Lib Dems in the mid 30s. At the UK GE in 2010 the Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael got 62.0% of the vote (11,989 votes). Even in their core territories, the Lib Dems are losing many thousands of voters.
The Highland result was also telling:
Highland: SNP 19,810 (30.3%) LD 12,189 (18.7%) Lab 9163 (14%) Con 9088 (13.9%) UKIP 7818 (12%) Green 5615 (8.6%)
Lib Dems on less than 19% !! Remember, they hold ALL THREE Westminster seats in the Highland area: John Thurso, Charlie Kennedy and Danny Alexander.
It would be nice if we had some proper statistical analysis instead of the old "let's compare apples and oranges to produce the result that fits my viewpoint" which seems to be how it's working on here at the moment.
What were the 2009 Euro results for Orkney, Shetland and Highland ? Let's compare last week's results against those rather than with the 2010 GE. If we see a similar falloff in LD votes then your conclusions will be valid.
Not sure about Orkney & Shetland but the Lib Dems were down by around 8% in the Highlands compared to 2009. I'm pretty sure they will hold Orkney & Shetland and Charles Kennedy's seat two with a decent chance of holding the other two Highland seats. Elsewhere in Scotland though I think they'll struggle quite badly.
Apart from Orkney and Shetlands, only Kennedy will win. Danny will deserve a good thrashing.
Who would have thunk Labour in the lead in Hallam ?
I'm not going to lump in on Clegg and Cable losing their seats on the basis of these polls and I would suggest that anyone who does is being quite foolish.
Well, it would depend on the odds. Unfortunately Shadsy has taken down the Ladbrokes' markets, so we'll have to see what he comes back with.
Meanwhile, I've been lovingly polishing my virtual betting slips on Lab gain Redcar (4/6), SNP gain Gordon (6/4) and a few others. I hope my £50 on Julian Huppert in Cambridge at 6/4 isn't £50 down the drain, though!
The Cambs council election results were bad for the LD but not as bad as could have been - held onto the key museli belt seats of Newnham and West Chesterton..
What were the results last year in Lansley's constituency again? That seems to be the most likely by-election after Newark now.
You will appreciate this (from the guardian's live coverage of the cricket)
"I once deftly proved one part of Einstein's Theory of Relativity on the bus from Ballymena to Antrim", brags Robert Wilson. "Using a polo mint. You wait for a bend in the road, you throw the polo mint absolutely straight, but in the relative situation of the turning bus, it curves.
Right into the mouth of an extremely unforgiving pensioner lady. Who then beat me up with an umbrella (seemingly made of plutonium) while my friends laughed until they cried. This being the Ballymena bus, she broke my thumb. But pure knowledge is always worth it."
@robertshrimsley: On the SNP "bonus": to pass this off as robust analysis is an insult to the country of David Hume and Adam Smith http://t.co/FwhR8bWbvs
Now, who is going to commission the Orkney and Shetland poll... ?
Why, do we have some new Inverness-specific data?
Regarding the Northern Isles, these were the Euro results:
Orkney: LD 1825 (35.2%) SNP 872 (16.8%) Con 679 (13.1%) Green 619 (12%) UKIP 618 (11.9%) Lab 466 (9%)
Shetland: LD 1755 (33.9%) SNP 897 (17.3%) Green 638 (12.3%) UKIP 616 (11.9%) Lab 580 (11.4%) Con 543 (10.5%)
So, the Lib Dems in the mid 30s. At the UK GE in 2010 the Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael got 62.0% of the vote (11,989 votes). Even in their core territories, the Lib Dems are losing many thousands of voters.
The Highland result was also telling:
Highland: SNP 19,810 (30.3%) LD 12,189 (18.7%) Lab 9163 (14%) Con 9088 (13.9%) UKIP 7818 (12%) Green 5615 (8.6%)
Lib Dems on less than 19% !! Remember, they hold ALL THREE Westminster seats in the Highland area: John Thurso, Charlie Kennedy and Danny Alexander.
It would be nice if we had some proper statistical analysis instead of the old "let's compare apples and oranges to produce the result that fits my viewpoint" which seems to be how it's working on here at the moment.
What were the 2009 Euro results for Orkney, Shetland and Highland ? Let's compare last week's results against those rather than with the 2010 GE. If we see a similar falloff in LD votes then your conclusions will be valid.
Not sure about Orkney & Shetland but the Lib Dems were down by around 8% in the Highlands compared to 2009. I'm pretty sure they will hold Orkney & Shetland and Charles Kennedy's seat two with a decent chance of holding the other two Highland seats. Elsewhere in Scotland though I think they'll struggle quite badly.
Apart from Orkney and Shetlands, only Kennedy will win. Danny will deserve a good thrashing.
Who would have thunk Labour in the lead in Hallam ?
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
You will appreciate this (from the guardian's live coverage of the cricket)
"I once deftly proved one part of Einstein's Theory of Relativity on the bus from Ballymena to Antrim", brags Robert Wilson. "Using a polo mint. You wait for a bend in the road, you throw the polo mint absolutely straight, but in the relative situation of the turning bus, it curves.
Right into the mouth of an extremely unforgiving pensioner lady. Who then beat me up with an umbrella (seemingly made of plutonium) while my friends laughed until they cried. This being the Ballymena bus, she broke my thumb. But pure knowledge is always worth it."
The thing about changing Clegg not helping Lib polling much is they need a new line as well. It's if/when they come up with a new line that they need to replace Clegg at the same time and they don't have long.
I'm just catching up on some of the detailed European election results to find that Labour came fifth in Cornwall, and a mere 800 vote lead over UKIP in Exeter.
The Torbay figures are also dreadful for the Lib Dems - just 3,647 votes compared to the 23,000 odd they had at the 2010 general election [with some of the Torbay council wards being in the Totnes seat too].
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
You will appreciate this (from the guardian's live coverage of the cricket)
"I once deftly proved one part of Einstein's Theory of Relativity on the bus from Ballymena to Antrim", brags Robert Wilson. "Using a polo mint. You wait for a bend in the road, you throw the polo mint absolutely straight, but in the relative situation of the turning bus, it curves.
Right into the mouth of an extremely unforgiving pensioner lady. Who then beat me up with an umbrella (seemingly made of plutonium) while my friends laughed until they cried. This being the Ballymena bus, she broke my thumb. But pure knowledge is always worth it."
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
Indeed. Labour know they can't win Newark and they also know that UKIP making mischief could work in their favour. They need to make sure that either UKIP win/come close or they do respectably though. If it ends 45/35/10/10 Con/Kip/Lab/Others then that's not great for them.
Much as the local results are informative I do not think the Euro results should necessarily be ignored. For example given its where Farage is going to stand lets take the Kent Euro figures and compare them to the county council figures (Euros - County - Difference).
UKIP 39% 26% (+13%) Conservative 28% 35% (-7%) Labour 14.5% 23% (-8.5%) Green 7.4% 4% (+3.4%) Libdems 6% 9% (-3%) Other 5.3% 3% (+2.3%*)
Figures exclude Medway Euro results as they are a separate unitary council . The UKIP lookalike party at the top of the ballot polled 2.2% so the increase in others arguably could also be considered as potential UKIP support. So on the face of it in the 12 months subsequent to the UKIP county council victories there seems to have been something like a 10% swing from Tory to UKIP
Now add to this the detailed council area results in Kent (UKIP share, lead over Tories, number of Westminster Constituencies involved)
* Medway was not involved in the County Council elections ** Tunbridge Wells was the only council area where UKIP came 2nd (Tories coming first)
Otherwise the Tories cam second in every council area with Labour third in each one except Maidstone where the Libdems hung on to third. The Greens beat the Libdems in 10 of the 13 contests for 4th place. The Libdems were fifth in ten seats, 4th in 2 seats and third in one. They avoided the ignominy of falling 6th behind the UKIP lookalike party by just over 100 votes in both Dartford and Gravesham.
Now albeit Euro elections I'm not sure 16 of the Tories 17 MP's can take comfort from the idea that notionally UKIP's national vote share projection has declined because in their own back yard the suggestion is that there has been a further 10% swing from Tory to UKIP and as a result all bar one of the reasonably if not previous totally safe Tory's seats is to some extent at risk.
As for Labour in 2005 they held 7 seats in Kent. Those 7 seats are now amongst UKIP's best Kent results (In Thanet, Medway, Gravesham & Dover). Arguably UKIP are now replacing Labour in Kent and if that is the case then Miliband''s election challenge becomes that much harder.
Miliband needs seats like those held in 2005 to have a decent majority and if he doesn't get them can he rely on his left wing to stay disciplined or worse the increasingly shakey Libdems propping him up
As for Cameron he cannot afford to be fighting a widescale second front against UKIP in 50 to 100 seats. Kent may be at the forefront of UKIP's advance. However, in council areas covering 11 constituencies UKIp demonstrated a 15% plus lead over the Tories and with those sort of leads the idea that prodigal UKIP voters returning to the fold will resolve everything just doesn't resonate in quite the same way. Not only that its far from being the only county where this phenomena is occurring. Boston in Lincs I believe had UKIP polling over 50% for example. I could imagine the last thing Lynton Crosby wants is to be forced to redirect resources away from the Tory Labour marginals to shore up heartland seats.
Consequently I cannot see there is much comfort in the National Vote Share projection or its revised version given what is clearly an increasingly fractured regional political landscape.
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
There's a 20% Lib Dem vote to squeeze.
If UKIP win, I'll be surprised, and a bit out of pocket.
If Labour wins, I'll run naked through Westminster.
And if the Lib Dems win I'll join Dan Hodges on his "victory lap" for his UKIP bet...
It does appear to have been a bit of a botched job
Cant have been as botched as the Treasury's analysis that was debunked today. The debasement of the fine tradition of civil service neutrality in the name of meeting their business objective of keeping Scotland in the UK is sad to witness.
"Impartiality – acting solely according to the merits of the case and serving governments of different political parties equally well"
Any reluctance to jump at the command of the government of the day risks a civil servant being found in breach of their duty of impartiality, even if doing so puts them in conflict of their duty of objectivity.
I dont think that botching an analysis is serving a Government well. There is no justification for Treasury to produce botched analyse to support the political manifestos of the parties that make up the government of the day - why have they openly taken a position on something as political as this referendum?
I agree that it isn't serving the governance of the nation well, but the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity.
In the final analysis the civil service knows that the politicians will seek to bypass it if it does not play ball, and so if less value is ascribed to objectivity compared with obedience then they will act accordingly.
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
There's a 20% Lib Dem vote to squeeze.
If Labour wins, I'll run naked through Westminster.
the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity
That is very much what I am lamenting.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
That is a good sign ! The votes are going elsewhere. Clothes pegs on the nose time !
Err... so now you are telling us that you'd prefer a UKIP gain to a LAB gain? No wonder Miliband is heading for the pile of discarded politicians labelled "Losers".
Tories losing is a Labour win !
Sorry but if Labour don't win in Newark they certainly need to be close. Anything else is a major disappointment.
It would take a swing of 15% for Labour to win Newark. They need a swing of 2-3% in 2015 to get a majority. The suggestion that if they aren't touching 1997 levels of swing then they are disappointing is nuts.
The only reason Labour may get any swing towards them is as a sort of almost irrelevant second degree factor of Con -> UKIP swing.
There's a 20% Lib Dem vote to squeeze.
If Labour wins, I'll run naked through Westminster.
@manofkent2014 - If I understand you correctly, you've discovered that UKIP do better in Euro elections than in local elections. This is true.
Which is why his UKIP Kent council analysis is interesting.
Is it? Perhaps I've misunderstood, but if I'm reading it correctly he's taking the UKIP vote share in last year's locals, comparing it with UKIP's vote share in the Euros this year, and concluding that the difference represents a swing to UKIP over the year. Err, no.
the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity
That is very much what I am lamenting.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
Once again, we have analysis comparing apples to oranges as the so-called pundits compare the 2014 European results to the 2010 GE results and do some partisan extrapolation.
The comparison should be between the 2009 and 2014 European results and note how the 2009 result compared with the 2010 GE result. I suspect it would have been hard to extrapolate 57 Liberal Democrat MPs on the basis of the 2009 European results and we know seats like Carshalton & Wallington and Sutton & Cheam would have been lost on the basis of the 2009 European numbers (as well as the 2008 GLA results).
So we now know that some weeks ago Cable was shown polling information undertaken on LD constituencies. Information that could have been of use to, Lib Dem HQ, the other constituencies and the Leader. Yet it was not shared. Cable and Oakshott have therefore behaved as a selfish party within a party. Oakshott has gone and yet the separate party "led" by Cable carries on. Clegg has an opportunity to act against Cable now, or let the plotting carry on by Cable p**ing from inside the tent.
The funny thing is that Cable has been viewed as the most duplicitous Lib Dem in Govt by his fellow Tory Ministers. Now we can see that Cable behaves that way to his own side as well.
the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity
That is very much what I am lamenting.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
Why now, and not the years 1997-2010?
Quite - and why only Westminster - not Holyrood civil service.
the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity
That is very much what I am lamenting.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
Why now, and not the years 1997-2010?
If you want to point me to an occasion when the UK civil service was given a nakedly political goal as a business objective in that period I will lament that too.
@manofkent2014 - If I understand you correctly, you've discovered that UKIP do better in Euro elections than in local elections. This is true.
Which is why his UKIP Kent council analysis is interesting.
Is it? Perhaps I've misunderstood, but if I'm reading it correctly he's taking the UKIP vote share in last year's locals, comparing it with UKIP's vote share in the Euros this year, and concluding that the difference represents a swing to UKIP over the year. Err, no.
If I've misunderstood, I apologise.
Yes, he has. 20% needs to be lopped off those figures.
Afternoon all, can someone please give me a link to this LibDem poll everyone has been talking about for 2 days.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
"THERE were angry scenes as Commonwealth Games and council bosses faced hundreds of residents who say they have endured five years of disruption in the run-up to the event."
Now, who is going to commission the Orkney and Shetland poll... ?
Why, do we have some new Inverness-specific data?
Regarding the Northern Isles, these were the Euro results:
Orkney: LD 1825 (35.2%) SNP 872 (16.8%) Con 679 (13.1%) Green 619 (12%) UKIP 618 (11.9%) Lab 466 (9%)
Shetland: LD 1755 (33.9%) SNP 897 (17.3%) Green 638 (12.3%) UKIP 616 (11.9%) Lab 580 (11.4%) Con 543 (10.5%)
So, the Lib Dems in the mid 30s. At the UK GE in 2010 the Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael got 62.0% of the vote (11,989 votes). Even in their core territories, the Lib Dems are losing many thousands of voters.
The Highland result was also telling:
Highland: SNP 19,810 (30.3%) LD 12,189 (18.7%) Lab 9163 (14%) Con 9088 (13.9%) UKIP 7818 (12%) Green 5615 (8.6%)
Lib Dems on less than 19% !! Remember, they hold ALL THREE Westminster seats in the Highland area: John Thurso, Charlie Kennedy and Danny Alexander.
It would be nice if we had some proper statistical analysis instead of the old "let's compare apples and oranges to produce the result that fits my viewpoint" which seems to be how it's working on here at the moment.
What were the 2009 Euro results for Orkney, Shetland and Highland ? Let's compare last week's results against those rather than with the 2010 GE. If we see a similar falloff in LD votes then your conclusions will be valid.
Not sure about Orkney & Shetland but the Lib Dems were down by around 8% in the Highlands compared to 2009. I'm pretty sure they will hold Orkney & Shetland and Charles Kennedy's seat two with a decent chance of holding the other two Highland seats. Elsewhere in Scotland though I think they'll struggle quite badly.
Apart from Orkney and Shetlands, only Kennedy will win. Danny will deserve a good thrashing.
Who would have thunk Labour in the lead in Hallam ?
Yes, he has. 20% needs to be lopped off those figures.
Which means Thanet is going.
Thanet is certainly a good target for UKIP, but what we might be seeing is simply that both Labour and Conservative supporters there voted UKIP in the Euros. What matters is how many of them switch back in the GE, which you can't really tell from the vote-change figures 2013 Locals- > 2014 Euros.
There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them.
Incredible really that the Tories fared so badly in the locals after holding down Council Tax so effectively for 4 years, after Brown & Co. had let it rip for year after year. People do indeed have very short memories ..... oh well only one more year to go before this huge burden on the household budget resumes its upward trajectory with more untold and uncontrolled waste.
Afternoon all, can someone please give me a link to this LibDem poll everyone has been talking about for 2 days.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Yes, he has. 20% needs to be lopped off those figures.
Which means Thanet is going.
Thanet is certainly a good target for UKIP, but what we might be seeing is simply that both Labour and Conservative supporters there voted UKIP in the Euros. What matters is how many of them switch back in the GE, which you can't really tell from the vote-change figures 2013 Locals- > 2014 Euros.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
Afternoon all, can someone please give me a link to this LibDem poll everyone has been talking about for 2 days.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
Do you want the poll, the initial rebuttal, the second more detailed rebuttal? It's been ripped apart over the last two days.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Isnt French as widely spoken as English in Africa?
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Isnt French as widely spoken as English in Africa?
That's probably why there are a lot of French speaking Africans in France and Belgium. It's not so widely spoken in Asia.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Well France is certainly demolishing the camps, so will likely deport them afterwards I'd have thought. I'm pretty sure it would take us ten years to demolish a camp like that here.
And it's not just benefits, we set you up with a house here too.
Afternoon all, can someone please give me a link to this LibDem poll everyone has been talking about for 2 days.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Well France is certainly demolishing the camps, so will likely deport them afterwards I'd have thought. I'm pretty sure it would take us ten years to demolish a camp like that here.
Incredible really that the Tories fared so badly in the locals after holding down Council Tax so effectively for 4 years, after Brown & Co. had let it rip for year after year. People do indeed have very short memories ..... oh well only one more year to go before this huge burden on the household budget resumes its upward trajectory with more untold and uncontrolled waste.
Owner occupiers pay council tax, owner-occupiers vote.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
Starting Japanese from scratch took me basically a full year before I could have a reasonable conversation. That was under optimal conditions - heavily immersed, plenty of time to study, fairly young, had already learned foreign languages, surrounded by helpful people, very determined. Getting to the point where I could cope with minor business-ish things was more like three years under the same conditions, and that put me ahead of most of the people I knew who'd arrived at the same time.
Japanese may be an extreme case, but if you're in the country to do something productive like work or look after a relative, even a few months without knowing the language would be fairly intimidating and seriously practically difficult, even if you had a financial buffer to do it. In reality a few months would only get you so far, and you'd be in that situation for longer.
It's a little bit baffling that people who are so insistent that people who move to a country need to learn the local language can't see the attraction of moving somewhere where you already speak it.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Well France is certainly demolishing the camps, so will likely deport them afterwards I'd have thought. I'm pretty sure it would take us ten years to demolish a camp like that here.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
Where did I say that?
I did say that Thanet is a good target for UKIP. Whether to the extent of damaging the possibility of an EU referendum or letting Miliband into No 10 remains to be seen, but, as I said, can't be seen by comparing locals in 2013 with Euros in 2014.
@BBCNormanS: Simon Hughes :"Mathew Oakeshot has behaved disloyally and without honour" @LibDems
It's the women he behaved inappropriately towards that I feel sorry for. Oops, different Lord. Speaking of which, isnt the period for the Lib Dems to investigate Rennard's failure to apologise over? I wonder whether they will come down as hard on him?
There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them.
Any particular reason why?
Most of the serious road accidents are caused by frustrated car drivers spending upwards of 30mins driving at 40mph behind several lorries on a 60mph road with single carriageway and rare bits of dual carriageway. They are meant to pull into laybys to allow others to pass but many, especially those from the Central Belt and England dont. Proposal is to put average speed cameras on the single carriageway stretches and raise lorry speed to 50mph. Will make little difference as the decent lorry drivers already drive at 50mph but with average cameras all drivers will need to stick to limit. Fewer than 20 miles of the 100 mile route between Perth and Inverness are dual carriageway and average speed cameras will limit opportunity for overtaking in the clearer single carriageway stretches. Most of us who drive that road regularly reckon 1) the number of accidents will increase due to increased frustration and 2) it is just a revenue raising project by the SNP.
Under the SNP, the time it takes me to drive from home to Glasgow has increased on average by 30 minutes compared to when Margaret Thatcher was PM. This is due to the frequency of the limited dual carriageway stretches between coned off into single carriageway and the vastly increased volume of freight traffic on the road.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
No but Boris Johnson would.
Nah Boris would insult the voters and pork their wives in front of them. Best left in London where such things are the norm.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Isnt French as widely spoken as English in Africa?
Unfortunately an individual African only knows the languages they personally learned to speak, rather than all the languages spoken by other people in Africa. If you were a French-speaking Algerian you'd be much more likely to try to settle in France, for the same reason.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
No but Boris Johnson would.
Nah Boris would insult the voters and pork their wives in front of them. Best left in London where such things are the norm.
There are no husbands left in Thanet, Mr. Brooke. The constituency is populated by widows of plasterers.
All they want is a little attention and memory of what it is like to be plastered.
Afternoon all, can someone please give me a link to this LibDem poll everyone has been talking about for 2 days.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
If you can get a win for Danny out of that lot, let me know.
Thanks. Incidentally while I would never vote for Danny because I am a Tory (unless he defects of course) he remains very popular. Highlanders have a tradition of voting for the man not the party.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Well France is certainly demolishing the camps, so will likely deport them afterwards I'd have thought. I'm pretty sure it would take us ten years to demolish a camp like that here.
There are no camps like that here though.
Nobody queuing up to get in to France ?
They are queuing up to get into Europe generally - and hundreds are dying in the attempt.
This is a daily event in Melilla, the Spanish enclave in North Africa:
the civil servants are being instructed by their political masters to take this action and there is no-one in the senior civil service willing or able to stand up for their objectivity
That is very much what I am lamenting.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
Why now, and not the years 1997-2010?
Quite - and why only Westminster - not Holyrood civil service.
Tanks on the red lawn - don't like it up em etc.
The unionists and Whitehall don't like it when people complain about them with far, far more reason than the whipped-up nonsense about the Scottish Civil Service head of a few years back. I have pointed out before the hysteria with which the Unionist media and pols leapt on a supposed pro-Nat bias in the internal SCS blog of the head of the service (from memory, all he said was along the lines of there were interesting times ahead and some interesting planning of policy options to do). When it was released, and they could actually read what he had said, they found absolutely nothing to complain about except his taste in music.
Just a thought but are these 'asylum seekers' stateless? If so how do they have any rights at all? I think I heard that they can't be deported as they don't have passports. If they don't want to belong to the state where they're born, why should anyone want them.
@BBCNormanS: Simon Hughes :"Mathew Oakeshot has behaved disloyally and without honour" @LibDems
It's the women he behaved inappropriately towards that I feel sorry for. Oops, different Lord. Speaking of which, isnt the period for the Lib Dems to investigate Rennard's failure to apologise over? I wonder whether they will come down as hard on him?
Shhh. Whatever you do, don't mention the war Rennard. I did it once, but I think I got away with it.
There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them.
Any particular reason why?
Most of the serious road accidents are caused by frustrated car drivers spending upwards of 30mins driving at 40mph behind several lorries on a 60mph road with single carriageway and rare bits of dual carriageway. They are meant to pull into laybys to allow others to pass but many, especially those from the Central Belt and England dont. Proposal is to put average speed cameras on the single carriageway stretches and raise lorry speed to 50mph. Will make little difference as the decent lorry drivers already drive at 50mph but with average cameras all drivers will need to stick to limit. Fewer than 20 miles of the 100 mile route between Perth and Inverness are dual carriageway and average speed cameras will limit opportunity for overtaking in the clearer single carriageway stretches. Most of us who drive that road regularly reckon 1) the number of accidents will increase due to increased frustration and 2) it is just a revenue raising project by the SNP.
Under the SNP, the time it takes me to drive from home to Glasgow has increased on average by 30 minutes compared to when Margaret Thatcher was PM. This is due to the frequency of the limited dual carriageway stretches between coned off into single carriageway and the vastly increased volume of freight traffic on the road.
Quite. Such a shame the Tories joined in with Labour and LDs to derail the transport improvement budget and redirect the money to Edinburgh's trams.
Any reason why they should automatically do so? TSE showed clearly yesterday voting tribalism is on the decline.
I didn't say they would automatically do so. What I said was that comparing UKIP local election vote shares with UKIP Euro election vote shares doesn't constitute a swing.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
You think Camerton will appeal more to the voters of Thanet than Farage ? Can't see it myself.
No but Boris Johnson would.
Nah Boris would insult the voters and pork their wives in front of them. Best left in London where such things are the norm.
There are no husbands left in Thanet, Mr. Brooke. The constituency is populated by widows of plasterers.
All they want is a little attention and memory of what it is like to be plastered.
Boris would be perfect.
I refer you to Gogglebox Mr P, where being plastered is pretty much a way of life in Sandwich.
Incredible really that the Tories fared so badly in the locals after holding down Council Tax so effectively for 4 years, after Brown & Co. had let it rip for year after year. People do indeed have very short memories ..... oh well only one more year to go before this huge burden on the household budget resumes its upward trajectory with more untold and uncontrolled waste.
Between 1977 and 1980 the Tory-SNP coalition which ran Glasgow City Council increased the domestic rates by the princely sum of 0.5 pence, a fraction of the increase the Labour councils in surrounding council areas applied. The reward in 1980 was for the SNP to lose every single seat it held and for the Tories to lose half of ours. Electorate can be incredibly ungrateful.
It takes a few months to learn a foreign language if you're immersed.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
I'd be surprised if people willing to trek across continents and to camp out for months on end in all conditions to get to the UK were interested in coming here for the benefits. And they are not being deported from France, are they?
Well France is certainly demolishing the camps, so will likely deport them afterwards I'd have thought. I'm pretty sure it would take us ten years to demolish a camp like that here.
There are no camps like that here though.
Nobody queuing up to get in to France ?
They are queuing up to get into Europe generally - and hundreds are dying in the attempt.
This is a daily event in Melilla, the Spanish enclave in North Africa:
But yes the overall situation vis a vis African immigrants trying to get in to Europe is scary to say the least. Both in the desparation of those seeking a better life and the casualty rate of those who don't make it.
Between 1977 and 1980 the Tory-SNP coalition which ran Glasgow City Council increased the domestic rates by the princely sum of 0.5 pence, a fraction of the increase the Labour councils in surrounding council areas applied. The reward in 1980 was for the SNP to lose every single seat it held and for the Tories to lose half of ours. Electorate can be incredibly ungrateful.
Incredible really that the Tories fared so badly in the locals after holding down Council Tax so effectively for 4 years, after Brown & Co. had let it rip for year after year. People do indeed have very short memories ..... oh well only one more year to go before this huge burden on the household budget resumes its upward trajectory with more untold and uncontrolled waste.
Between 1977 and 1980 the Tory-SNP coalition which ran Glasgow City Council increased the domestic rates by the princely sum of 0.5 pence, a fraction of the increase the Labour councils in surrounding council areas applied. The reward in 1980 was for the SNP to lose every single seat it held and for the Tories to lose half of ours. Electorate can be incredibly ungrateful.
I think it would be a good idea to see if we could have a day on PB where no one is allowed to make a sarcastic or smart arse comment, and has to give a straight answer
Do you think it would be possible?
Non stop sarcasm is extraordinarily tiresome, and I would have thought nowhere near as funny or clever as the person responsible thinks it is
@Alanbrooke - It is absolutely horrific. There are hundreds dying and if they make it over their lives are pretty miserable by our standards. The African blokes who pound the streets and beaches of the Med cities selling knock-off tat and constantly looking over their shoulders for the police must live on only a pittance. Yet it is still so much better than what they have left behind.
I think it would be a good idea to see if we could have a day on PB where no one is allowed to make a sarcastic or smart arse comment, and has to give a straight answer
Do you think it would be possible?
Non stop sarcasm is extraordinarily tiresome, and I would have thought nowhere near as funny or clever as the person responsible thinks it is
I think that would make this a very dreary place to be. For the avoidance of doubt, that was not sarcasm.
Comments
Indeed, Clegg may let hang on. Just done a similiar analysis for Danny Alexander though and unless my statistics is a mile off he's a goner.
The Torbay figures are also dreadful for the Lib Dems - just 3,647 votes compared to the 23,000 odd they had at the 2010 general election [with some of the Torbay council wards being in the Totnes seat too].
UKIP 39% 26% (+13%)
Conservative 28% 35% (-7%)
Labour 14.5% 23% (-8.5%)
Green 7.4% 4% (+3.4%)
Libdems 6% 9% (-3%)
Other 5.3% 3% (+2.3%*)
Figures exclude Medway Euro results as they are a separate unitary council
.
The UKIP lookalike party at the top of the ballot polled 2.2% so the increase in others arguably could also be considered as potential UKIP support. So on the face of it in the 12 months subsequent to the UKIP county council victories there seems to have been something like a 10% swing from Tory to UKIP
Now add to this the detailed council area results in Kent (UKIP share, lead over Tories, number of Westminster Constituencies involved)
Thanet 46% 24% 2
Medway* 42% 19% 3
Swale 43% 18% 2
Gravesham 41.5% 18% 1
Dartford 41% 18% 1
Folkestone 43% 17% 1
Dover 39% 15% 1
Canterbury 34% 9% 1
Ashford 39% 9% 1
Maidstone 37% 8% 1
Sevenoaks 37% 2% 1
Tonbridge 36% 1% 1
Tunbridge Wells** 30% -7% 1
* Medway was not involved in the County Council elections
** Tunbridge Wells was the only council area where UKIP came 2nd (Tories coming first)
Otherwise the Tories cam second in every council area with Labour third in each one except Maidstone where the Libdems hung on to third. The Greens beat the Libdems in 10 of the 13 contests for 4th place. The Libdems were fifth in ten seats, 4th in 2 seats and third in one. They avoided the ignominy of falling 6th behind the UKIP lookalike party by just over 100 votes in both Dartford and Gravesham.
Now albeit Euro elections I'm not sure 16 of the Tories 17 MP's can take comfort from the idea that notionally UKIP's national vote share projection has declined because in their own back yard the suggestion is that there has been a further 10% swing from Tory to UKIP and as a result all bar one of the reasonably if not previous totally safe Tory's seats is to some extent at risk.
To Be Continued.......
As for Labour in 2005 they held 7 seats in Kent. Those 7 seats are now amongst UKIP's best
Kent results (In Thanet, Medway, Gravesham & Dover). Arguably UKIP are now replacing Labour in Kent and if that is the case then Miliband''s election challenge becomes that much harder.
Miliband needs seats like those held in 2005 to have a decent majority and if he doesn't get them can he rely on his left wing to stay disciplined or worse the increasingly shakey Libdems propping him up
As for Cameron he cannot afford to be fighting a widescale second front against UKIP in 50 to 100 seats. Kent may be at the forefront of UKIP's advance. However, in council areas covering 11 constituencies UKIp demonstrated a 15% plus lead over the Tories and with those sort of leads the idea that prodigal UKIP voters returning to the fold will resolve everything just doesn't resonate in quite the same way. Not only that its far from being the only county where this phenomena is occurring. Boston in Lincs I believe had UKIP polling over 50% for example. I could imagine the last thing Lynton Crosby wants is to be forced to redirect resources away from the Tory Labour marginals to shore up heartland seats.
Consequently I cannot see there is much comfort in the National Vote Share projection or its revised version given what is clearly an increasingly fractured regional political landscape.
An excellent first 2 posts, surely some jitters in Kent Conservative clubs right now.
If Labour wins, I'll run naked through Westminster.
And if the Lib Dems win I'll join Dan Hodges on his "victory lap" for his UKIP bet...
In the final analysis the civil service knows that the politicians will seek to bypass it if it does not play ball, and so if less value is ascribed to objectivity compared with obedience then they will act accordingly.
Though I also think it's time for some taxpayers to start questioning why we are paying for a partisan political operation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27599827
If I've misunderstood, I apologise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2641199/Tony-Blairs-rank-hypocrisy-He-threw-open-Britain-millions-immigrations-sneers-Ukip.html
Once again, we have analysis comparing apples to oranges as the so-called pundits compare the 2014 European results to the 2010 GE results and do some partisan extrapolation.
The comparison should be between the 2009 and 2014 European results and note how the 2009 result compared with the 2010 GE result. I suspect it would have been hard to extrapolate 57 Liberal Democrat MPs on the basis of the 2009 European results and we know seats like Carshalton & Wallington and Sutton & Cheam would have been lost on the basis of the 2009 European numbers (as well as the 2008 GLA results).
The funny thing is that Cable has been viewed as the most duplicitous Lib Dem in Govt by his fellow Tory Ministers. Now we can see that Cable behaves that way to his own side as well.
Tanks on the red lawn - don't like it up em etc.
I love a good dose of whataboutery.
Which means Thanet is going.
The @oakeshottm I know is a)extremely smart and b)extremely close to Cable. Something about this - esp Cable's behaviour - doesn't stack up.
Incidentally I wouldn't bet on Danny Alexander losing his seat regardless of what any poll might say. He is incredibly popular locally and very high profile/hard working. There is growing resentment at the SNP foisting average speed cameras on the A9 travelling public when the overwhelming view of the local population is we don't want them. Danny is leading the fight.
I suspect it's mainly down to the fact that our welfare state isn't based on contributions. And that we're a soft touch in deporting people.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/commonwealth-games/cwg-news/angry-scenes-as-residents-attack-games-disruption.24339474
"THERE were angry scenes as Commonwealth Games and council bosses faced hundreds of residents who say they have endured five years of disruption in the run-up to the event."
To be honest I voted Labour without looking at their policies because I come from a family where it was just the thing to do and Thatcher was hated
Not that invading Iraq orflooding the country with immigrants was in his manifesto's anyway
But I vote UKIP on policy, not because of Farage who although I quite like, I wouldnt say was a political hero of mine
People do indeed have very short memories ..... oh well only one more year to go before this huge burden on the household budget resumes its upward trajectory with more untold and uncontrolled waste.
If you can get a win for Danny out of that lot, let me know.
To attempt to estimate a swing from last year, the best measure is the National Equivalent Vote share. Of course, by definition that won't give any local breakdown.
And it's not just benefits, we set you up with a house here too.
If he leaves Inverness up at 4-1 for the Nats I'll certainly double up at least.
I'd take Nats at 4/1 as well.
@BBCNormanS: Simon Hughes :"Mathew Oakeshot has behaved disloyally and without honour" @LibDems
Landlords pay council tax, tenants vote.
Japanese may be an extreme case, but if you're in the country to do something productive like work or look after a relative, even a few months without knowing the language would be fairly intimidating and seriously practically difficult, even if you had a financial buffer to do it. In reality a few months would only get you so far, and you'd be in that situation for longer.
It's a little bit baffling that people who are so insistent that people who move to a country need to learn the local language can't see the attraction of moving somewhere where you already speak it.
I did say that Thanet is a good target for UKIP. Whether to the extent of damaging the possibility of an EU referendum or letting Miliband into No 10 remains to be seen, but, as I said, can't be seen by comparing locals in 2013 with Euros in 2014.
Under the SNP, the time it takes me to drive from home to Glasgow has increased on average by 30 minutes compared to when Margaret Thatcher was PM. This is due to the frequency of the limited dual carriageway stretches between coned off into single carriageway and the vastly increased volume of freight traffic on the road.
yes, that's a big part - easy to get citizenship eventually by staying long enough
All they want is a little attention and memory of what it is like to be plastered.
Boris would be perfect.
This is a daily event in Melilla, the Spanish enclave in North Africa:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=melilla+immigrants&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=TAOGU6zgL4n07AbSrYEY&sqi=2&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAg&biw=1364&bih=676#facrc=_&imgrc=yDaHi9p_8NlkGM%3A;UCARwBgpT3kXsM;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fstyles%2F980w%2Fpublic%2F2014%2F03%2F28%2Fa7f80e0269cd62bdc6ed02911b836d26.jpg%3Fitok%3DCt4VGcv4;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Farticle%2F1459868%2Fsub-saharan-immigrants-attempt-jump-fence-melilla-north-africa;980;654
You might want to rephrase that.
*innocent face*
The unionists and Whitehall don't like it when people complain about them with far, far more reason than the whipped-up nonsense about the Scottish Civil Service head of a few years back. I have pointed out before the hysteria with which the Unionist media and pols leapt on a supposed pro-Nat bias in the internal SCS blog of the head of the service (from memory, all he said was along the lines of there were interesting times ahead and some interesting planning of policy options to do). When it was released, and they could actually read what he had said, they found absolutely nothing to complain about except his taste in music.
But yes the overall situation vis a vis African immigrants trying to get in to Europe is scary to say the least. Both in the desparation of those seeking a better life and the casualty rate of those who don't make it.
Between 1977 and 1980 the Tory-SNP coalition which ran Glasgow City Council increased the domestic rates by the princely sum of 0.5 pence, a fraction of the increase the Labour councils in surrounding council areas applied. The reward in 1980 was for the SNP to lose every single seat it held and for the Tories to lose half of ours. Electorate can be incredibly ungrateful. Not in Tory-voting Wandsworth they're not!
Do you think it would be possible?
Non stop sarcasm is extraordinarily tiresome, and I would have thought nowhere near as funny or clever as the person responsible thinks it is