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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilat
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought
Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource.
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LAB have drifted to 61/1 at Betfair. Ouch!
Now, who is going to commission the Orkney and Shetland poll... ?
Haven't enjoyed myself so much on PB for years.
Why are some so disbelieving in these Lib Dem constituency polls when they are actually done on a broadly similiar basis to the Ashcroft Marginals ?
Also he didn't poll using candidate name which when done before has produced a large boost to Lib Dems.
Regarding the Northern Isles, these were the Euro results:
Orkney: LD 1825 (35.2%) SNP 872 (16.8%) Con 679 (13.1%) Green 619 (12%) UKIP 618 (11.9%) Lab 466 (9%)
Shetland: LD 1755 (33.9%) SNP 897 (17.3%) Green 638 (12.3%) UKIP 616 (11.9%) Lab 580 (11.4%) Con 543 (10.5%)
So, the Lib Dems in the mid 30s. At the UK GE in 2010 the Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael got 62.0% of the vote (11,989 votes). Even in their core territories, the Lib Dems are losing many thousands of voters.
The Highland result was also telling:
Highland: SNP 19,810 (30.3%) LD 12,189 (18.7%) Lab 9163 (14%) Con 9088 (13.9%) UKIP 7818 (12%) Green 5615 (8.6%)
Lib Dems on less than 19% !! Remember, they hold ALL THREE Westminster seats in the Highland area: John Thurso, Charlie Kennedy and Danny Alexander.
A poll showing Vince hehind in a constituency where he has a thumping majority and is very well known - blimey.
Slackbladder said:
« hide previous quotes
MikeK said:
DecrepitJohnL said:
dyedwoolie said:
Cameron - be the statesman. tell the Lib Dems they have 48 hours to sort themselves out or you will take action to protect the country from their incessant squabbling. Do it! Twist that knife!
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Cameron should dissolve the coalition and call a snap election? You are Ed Miliband AICMFP.
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Cammo was too cute in 2010, he has hamstrung himself and his party by the 5 year rule for parliaments.
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Meh, that rule can got around if the will was there.
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I wouldn't bet on that. Labour are in no position to support an early dissolution of parliament. Nor the L/Dems and many Tories would also be against. No Cammo is caught in a trap of his own making.
Lib Dems 5/6 (Ladbrokes)
UKIP 11/8 (William Hill)
And his fingerprints were all over the Student Fees, and Royal Mail sale, though I doubt the latter registers much in Twickers.
Broadly In line with the results from the Euros.
Labour's victory in London is invaluable in terms of capturing some key marginals though of course they need to be repeating that kind of performance elsewhere. Do we think the Greens will poll 6.5% in a GE ?
What we do know is there is in effect now a five-party system with a not insignificant block of "Others" (excluding UKIP). Trying to remember the latest Ashcroft numbers, it's about 12-13% in the Others camp.
You should try being a Labour supporter. They stick the knife in every single day!
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/29/final-vote-tally-from-last-months-locals-shows-ukip-in-second-place-in-seats-contested/
Am I to understand that because only some local areas were up for election last Thu (and one's which favour Labour a bit) then Labour's real performance was in reality even worse than what we saw in the headlines and which Rod Crosby analysed with his natty graph? Blimey.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/05/24/have-ukip-really-caused-a-political-earthquake-national-projections-show-vote-share-has-dropped-4739251/
(+/- UK GE 2010)
SNP 32% (+13)
Lab 25% (+3)
LD 16% (-25)
Con 12% (-1)
UKIP 7% (+6)
Grn 4% (+2)
oth 3% (+1)
As I said before the Euros, I simply cannot fathom why the SNP are priced at 4/1 in this seat. It is quite simply madness.
What were the 2009 Euro results for Orkney, Shetland and Highland ? Let's compare last week's results against those rather than with the 2010 GE. If we see a similar falloff in LD votes then your conclusions will be valid.
See Survation's take.
http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
Maybe the watermelons will actually vote Green, maybe the abandoned WWC will vote UKIP, maybe Dave will attract back a chunk of the UKIP 'loaned vote', maybe the yellow peril will really implode and the SW go Tory. Maybe DNV decide to vote after all, unable to face an Hollande type premiership. Who knows.
Anyway, the monstering of his dweebiness is only just getting started. JackW is right.
She's told me that she thinks Ed Miliband is crap.
I suspect that it would tell a similar story in terms of LD decline, although it would of course be useless in determining which party would benefit.
Anyone feeling energetic enough to sum the results?
Liberal Democrats 14,550
Scottish National Party (SNP) 14,393
Conservative Party 6,728
The Labour Party 5,325
Scottish Green Party 3,806
UK Independence Party 3,458
Sorry, don't have percentages.
http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/lord-oakeshott-accuses-lib-dems-cash-peerages
There are a large number of Lib Dem 2010 voters who say they are "don't knows", and Clegg et al have the general election campaign to convince them to stick with him.
That said, looking through the Ashcroft battleground polls and it is remarkable that in four of the seats UKIP are within 5% of winning - effectively a statistical dead heat given the margin of error.
I wonder whether everyone is looking at the SDP/Alliance history and drawing the wrong conclusions for UKIPs chances at the next GE.
It could be less a question of whether UKIP win one or two seats at the next GE, but if they win one or two dozen seats.
That said, looking through the Ashcroft battleground polls and it is remarkable that in four of the seats UKIP are within 5% of winning - effectively 10% behind given the margin of error.
LD: 30% to 19%
SNP: 30% to 31%
Tory: 14% to 14%
Labour: 11% to 14%
Green: 8% to 9%
UKIP: 7% to 12%
Looking at the raw numbers shows that turnout was up 32% and that while the LD vote only went down by a couple of thousand, the problem was everyone elses vote went up by several thousand.
LDs meanwhile? Just what on god's good earth did the LDs expect in coalition as junior member? Oakeshott is..[self-moderated].
I'm not going to lump in on Clegg and Cable losing their seats on the basis of these polls and I would suggest that anyone who does is being quite foolish.
Edit: No no, remarkably these figures are correct.
It's one step short of 'the rules of probability mean....'
People shift allegiance in order not to be the victim - that's human nature perhaps but if all you have is the "wisdom of the crowd" that's not a lot of wisdom in my experience.
Yes it is early but she is head and shoulders above anyone else at the moment, in a much better position to the comparable point in the 2008 cycle.
52% would support her in a run for President, 43% would oppose her.
The impressive thing is that this is happening while Obama is in the low-40s. I think she is the only Democrat who would have a chance if Obama's approval ratings stay low through to 2016.
The extraordinary thing is the breadth of her support. She wins every demographic group (sex, age, race, region, ideology, party, education and income) except Republicans (gets 26%) and Conservatives (gets 33%).
Bill has even better numbers - his favourables are 63 - 35 including 37% of Republicans and 45% of Conservatives.
Still a very long way to go but the Republicans will have their work cut out to beat her.
In a car-crash radio interview preceding the press conference, John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, was repeatedly challenged to say how much it cost to create the infrastructure of a separate Scotland but could not.
Barely two hours later, Mr Salmond announced at the press conference the figure was £250 million.
However, this cost did not feature in his document and contradicted a leaked report by Mr Swinney, which said the cost of a new Scottish tax agency alone would be between £575 million and £625 million.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10860195/SNP-disarray-over-claims-UK-dividend-worth-1400-to-every-Scot.html
It will break down if voting starts to balkanize in ways than didn't exist in the past.
Meanwhile, I've been lovingly polishing my virtual betting slips on Lab gain Redcar (4/6), SNP gain Gordon (6/4) and a few others. I hope my £50 on Julian Huppert in Cambridge at 6/4 isn't £50 down the drain, though!
Clegg is 1/3 with William Hill to win Hallam.
Value bet for me.
Huzzah for the efforts of Mr. JS.
"Patrick Dunleavy, politics professor at the London School of Economics, told the Financial Times the Treasury had manipulated his research to make the one-off costs of setting up a new government look ten times larger than they were likely to be.
Speaking to the Financial Times, the academic said: "The Treasury’s figures are bizarrely inaccurate. I don’t see why the Scottish government couldn’t do this for a very small amount of money."
On his Twitter account he also expressed astonishment that the Treasury would make such a mistake saying: "Could they be this crude?
"Phone call from Treasury guy later confirms: Yes, they had been""
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/9250-blow-to-uk-treasury-as-senior-academic-describes-its-figures-as-qmisleadingq
Who would have thunk Labour in the lead in Hallam ?
Suspect the difference won't be as high for MPs which are not media darlings or senior Cabinet ministers, but it's going to be large and the voters will have the names in front of them on the ballot paper, so you may as well use them.
"Impartiality – acting solely according to the merits of the case and serving governments of different political parties equally well"
Any reluctance to jump at the command of the government of the day risks a civil servant being found in breach of their duty of impartiality, even if doing so puts them in conflict of their duty of objectivity.
The Lib Dems don't feature in this table - they won the 9th seat of 10 in the SE and would have won the 8th seat (out of 6) in the SW.
So, Highland Euro result, compared to 2009:
SNP 31% (+1)
LD 19% (-11)
Lab 14% (+3)
Con 14% (n/c)
UKIP 12% (+5)
Grn 9% (+1)
You will appreciate this (from the guardian's live coverage of the cricket)
"I once deftly proved one part of Einstein's Theory of Relativity on the bus from Ballymena to Antrim", brags Robert Wilson. "Using a polo mint. You wait for a bend in the road, you throw the polo mint absolutely straight, but in the relative situation of the turning bus, it curves.
Right into the mouth of an extremely unforgiving pensioner lady. Who then beat me up with an umbrella (seemingly made of plutonium) while my friends laughed until they cried. This being the Ballymena bus, she broke my thumb. But pure knowledge is always worth it."
Over 11
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/may/28/england-v-sri-lanka-third-odi-live
SNP 67 30.45% +0.65%
Others
29 13.18% +1.09%
38 17.27% -2.88%
25 11.36% -2.55%
29 13.18% -0.91%
Highland results vs Respondees giving a VI.
Margin of error for 220 sample size: 6.6%
So the poll is not an outlier, though perhaps Lib Dems are sampled on the low side (Also possible Lib Dems are holding up better in Thurso/Kennedy's areas that aren't associated with the coalition so much, particularly Kennedy)
MoE for 500 sample size = 4.4%
Stretching the laws of probability massively in the Lib Dems favour:
Adding in 22 voters for the Lib Dems to the weighted figures
53 + 22 = 75
Subbing off 22 from SNP
117 - 22 = 95
I'm trying to reach a Lib Dem victory but I can't quite make it !
I haven't done stats for 10 years since Uni so my maths is probably wrong and rusty, but quite sure the ICM showed Lib Dems winning the locals in Hallam (Which tallies)