@tyson, nice to see you posting again old bean and hope your return from Florence is due to nothing more serious than a desire to see the old homeland again. Will Trotsky be accompanying you?
Listening to the Astra Zeneca evidence - it's a bit thin 'take overs are disrupting' - true, but not a reason for blocking this takeover in particular......looks like highly paid execs trying to hang onto their jobs......
"Is it true Mr Pascal sir that someone's granny could die of cancah due to this evil capitalist take over ?"
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
With reference to Balls out. If Ed of the Miliband is brave, he will go for Rachel Reeve. Untried in higher shadow office but personable and would put Osborne at risk of looking like an unpleasant bully, which he can get away with against a troglodyte like Balls.
Replacing Ed Balls with a woman is a good idea. Promoting Rachel Reeves would be as bad an idea as appointing Ed balls in the first place.
If a scientific theory predicts a certain result but that result does not conform to observations of the real world then that theory is demonstrably flawed. It may be total nonsense or it may need to be refined, either way until the theory matches the data the theory is false.
Does the Hockey stick theory match the data? Does it explain the lack of warming over the past decade? Does it explain the warm period in recorded history?
Mr Llama,
I think you've got it the wrong way around. The hockey stick is produced from data, and AGW is a theory as to how it has come about.
Personally I treat the hockey stick data with a certain amount of contempt: you have to be very careful when analysing such data, especially when there are so few data points, and your assumptions need to be made clear. And the scientists' behaviour has hardly been exemplary.
With reference to Balls out. If Ed of the Miliband is brave, he will go for Rachel Reeve. Untried in higher shadow office but personable and would put Osborne at risk of looking like an unpleasant bully, which he can get away with against a troglodyte like Balls.
Replacing Ed Balls with a woman is a good idea. Promoting Rachel Reeves would be as bad an idea as appointing Ed balls in the first place.
"... the next Welsh Political Barometer poll, which will include findings for voting intention in the European election, is due to be released next Monday. "
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
then the deal would, I assume, fall.
So does Salmond. But its a matter between the EU and Norway, who are entitled to sort out something themselves - outwith the gift of Scotland or Salmond.....
He never at any time said he had control of Norwegian fishing rights. As Richard said he quoted the truth based on the facts that if Scotland was out of the EU then Norway would be unlikely to allow the EU countries to fish in their waters given they did not have access to Scottish waters. Only in the twisted unionist mind could you make up that he did.
My advice for Labour now is the same as my advice to the Conservatives a couple of years ago and to the Lib Dems for the duration of the entire Parliament: keep buggering on. Whether or not Ed Miliband, Ed Balls or half the shadow Cabinet are as good as they might be in an ideal world is beside the point. Replacing them now would be a panic measure and would only make things worse.
'Commenting on the negotiating team [in the event of a Yes], he said: "The independence team will secure expertise from across the political spectrum and beyond, and from Scotland and beyond, to begin talks with Westminster before the end of this September - marking the point at which the real negotiations will begin.
"I understand that people on the other side of the political debate cannot accept that at the moment, but hope and expect that they will be fully part of the Team Scotland approach once the votes have been cast. It is also the case that a number of people outside party politics - but with key expertise - have already been approached and the response has been universally positive.
"More clearly than anything else this demonstrates the wish of those of us on the Yes side to move forward in a consensual way once the people have spoken."'
Interesting, not least because it will put Labour and LD MSPs in even more of a fix as to which way to come out publicly if the polls shift any more. Note that this was before the news about the UKGE and Euro voting intentions.
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
That is the natural consequence of what I just said. If the deal between the EU and Norway is dependent on Norwegian access (ie fishing rights) to Scottish waters then if Scotland leaves the EU then the deal would, I assume, fall.
I'm very glad to see that Malcolm and I aren't the only ones who seem to be able to read English. I was beginning to get worried!
But perhaps the most worrying items in this flurry of data for Labour are the leadership figures that appear in ICM’s polling. The company shows that the approval ratings of both David Cameron and George Osborne have jumped, giving them both positive ratings with another year left to go until the election. For the first time in months, they now outpoll Nigel Farage, who is on -8.
Miliband meanwhile has fallen even behind Nick Clegg in his approval rating, putting him on a dismal -25.
If the Tories succeed in turning the election campaign into a presidential-style run-off, those figures will spell disaster for Labour.
If a scientific theory predicts a certain result but that result does not conform to observations of the real world then that theory is demonstrably flawed. It may be total nonsense or it may need to be refined, either way until the theory matches the data the theory is false.
Does the Hockey stick theory match the data? Does it explain the lack of warming over the past decade? Does it explain the warm period in recorded history?
Mr Llama,
I think you've got it the wrong way around. The hockey stick is produced from data, and AGW is a theory as to how it has come about.
Personally I treat the hockey stick data with a certain amount of contempt: you have to be very careful when analysing such data, especially when there are so few data points, and your assumptions need to be made clear. And the scientists' behaviour has hardly been exemplary.
Local Labour leaflet has just plonked onto the doormat.
On the front cover, a wistful Ed stares dreamily into the distance at Conference.
Seriously, is that really the best photo the party could find?
Yes, go mine today too. The cost of living crisis for London millionaires is devastating.
Did you notice the pledge for a 'compulsory work guarantee for young people unemployed for a year or more' on the back?
Sadly, it was covered by last nights chilli in the bin. What's he going to do? Pay them to deliver pictures of him staring into the distance pulling a smell the fart face?
As an aside, it's odd how all the best members of the BBC F1 coverage are Scots. Of course, if the talented English hadn't been poached by Sky when the BBC decided to adopt a Judas Iscariot approach to F1 then there'd be a better balance.
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
then the deal would, I assume, fall.
So does Salmond. But its a matter between the EU and Norway, who are entitled to sort out something themselves - outwith the gift of Scotland or Salmond.....
Norway would be unlikely to allow the EU countries to fish in their waters given they did not have access to Scottish waters. Only in the twisted unionist mind could you make up that he did.
Really?
Where does he say 'unlikely'?
the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access
Who has the 'twisted mind'?
The Scottish Fishermen's Federation, obviously.....
But perhaps the most worrying items in this flurry of data for Labour are the leadership figures that appear in ICM’s polling. The company shows that the approval ratings of both David Cameron and George Osborne have jumped, giving them both positive ratings with another year left to go until the election. For the first time in months, they now outpoll Nigel Farage, who is on -8.
Miliband meanwhile has fallen even behind Nick Clegg in his approval rating, putting him on a dismal -25.
If the Tories succeed in turning the election campaign into a presidential-style run-off, those figures will spell disaster for Labour.
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
Why oh why did they cancel Southland?
(good to see you back here, btw)
You seem to have nailed it (the quote thingy).
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
But perhaps the most worrying items in this flurry of data for Labour are the leadership figures that appear in ICM’s polling. The company shows that the approval ratings of both David Cameron and George Osborne have jumped, giving them both positive ratings with another year left to go until the election. For the first time in months, they now outpoll Nigel Farage, who is on -8.
Miliband meanwhile has fallen even behind Nick Clegg in his approval rating, putting him on a dismal -25.
If the Tories succeed in turning the election campaign into a presidential-style run-off, those figures will spell disaster for Labour.
But perhaps the most worrying items in this flurry of data for Labour are the leadership figures that appear in ICM’s polling. The company shows that the approval ratings of both David Cameron and George Osborne have jumped, giving them both positive ratings with another year left to go until the election. For the first time in months, they now outpoll Nigel Farage, who is on -8.
Miliband meanwhile has fallen even behind Nick Clegg in his approval rating, putting him on a dismal -25.
If the Tories succeed in turning the election campaign into a presidential-style run-off, those figures will spell disaster for Labour.
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
Why oh why did they cancel Southland?
(good to see you back here, btw)
You seem to have nailed it (the quote thingy).
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
I'm still in shock about the recent episode of The Good Wife that aired on more4 last week.
I like Nashville too, but The Americans, the wigs! the wigs!
With reference to Balls out. If Ed of the Miliband is brave, he will go for Rachel Reeve. Untried in higher shadow office but personable and would put Osborne at risk of looking like an unpleasant bully, which he can get away with against a troglodyte like Balls.
Replacing Ed Balls with a woman is a good idea. Promoting Rachel Reeves would be as bad an idea as appointing Ed balls in the first place.
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
I wonder if that buried poll we heard of showing the Nats in with a shout could be behind this? Whatever, with the Tory Renaissance in the polls, keeping the union together is going to be ever harder.
@Carlotta - you are right. While supporters of the three main parties tear their hair out at their own leaders' inadequacies, Kippers and Nats see their leaders as messiahs. In many ways though, that's what makes them such tricky and at times formidable opponents.
Is that really surprising? UKIP and the SNP each have a distinct aim which is the motivating force behind their support, have risen to prominence pretty quickly, and could be said to be on the brink of something spectacular. Conservatives and LibDem supporters both have reasons to think their leader has compromised them where as Labours is unpopular with their own supporters.
The real reason for the "messiah" complex you speak of is probably because Salmond and Farage are leading a party that could actually make a tangible, historical change rather than fiddle at the margins of current status quo, and while the cause is gaining momentum, human nature dictates that any follies are overlooked by supporters. All that matters is the end of the Union/EU membership
ISAM, I was not aware that UKIP had been on the go for 80 years or even 40 for that matter.
They havent, I dont get what you are saying?
You seemed to be saying that SNP started at similar time to UKIP, when they have been 80 years getting to where they are. I don't see many similarities between the SNP and UKIP, so was wondering why you thought they were the same or similar.
I didnt say anything at all about when either party had started, just that they have had sharp upturn in prominence relatively recently.. I know its dear to you and please dont take it the wrong way, but I had never heard of the SNP until probably 5 years ago.
The point was that people were saying UKIP and SNP supporters can see no wrong in their leaders, unlike the other three major parties supporters, and I thought that might be because the leaders are much more of a proxy for the ultimate aim with SNP and UKIP than fo rthe others who dont seem to stand for anything in particular/try to be all things to all people
If a scientific theory predicts a certain result but that result does not conform to observations of the real world then that theory is demonstrably flawed. It may be total nonsense or it may need to be refined, either way until the theory matches the data the theory is false.
Does the Hockey stick theory match the data? Does it explain the lack of warming over the past decade? Does it explain the warm period in recorded history?
Mr Llama,
I think you've got it the wrong way around. The hockey stick is produced from data, and AGW is a theory as to how it has come about.
Personally I treat the hockey stick data with a certain amount of contempt: you have to be very careful when analysing such data, especially when there are so few data points, and your assumptions need to be made clear. And the scientists' behaviour has hardly been exemplary.
The lying scientists should have the hockey stick inserted where the sun don't shine. Global warming my arse.
Good God. There is something I make malcolmg right about.
I'm going to have to reconsider my views on climate millennarianism.
Bond, you will soon come to the right conclusion on independence as well, I am sure of it.
I agree with you there too. For slightly different reasons obviously. I want Scotland to sod off because England will better off. so although I agree with you, you're still wrong.
On climate change, well, a stopped clock is right twice a day, I suppose.
Thanks- and Trotsky is fine Simon (well done for remembering), happily sleeping by my feet. As much as Italy is beautiful, I mean stunningly beautiful- food, climate, history, wine, sea, mountains, art, light, sky- really it is a crime that a country has so many wonderful things within one set of borders, it is not Blighty. And we are coming back because we miss the UK, and I guess we are missing the UK more than we are enjoying Italy. The balance has tipped so to speak.
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
then the deal would, I assume, fall.
So does Salmond. But its a matter between the EU and Norway, who are entitled to sort out something themselves - outwith the gift of Scotland or Salmond.....
Nobody claimed that it was in the gift of Mr Salmond or an independent Scotland. It is entirely ip to the EU and Norway what the EU and Norway negotiate, but (a) the very need to negotiate that deal arises as a consequence of Scotland not being in the EU - and (b) the EU would presumably have to find something else as a quid pro quo for the Norwegians.
'Commenting on the negotiating team [in the event of a Yes], he said: "The independence team will secure expertise from across the political spectrum and beyond, and from Scotland and beyond, to begin talks with Westminster before the end of this September - marking the point at which the real negotiations will begin.
"I understand that people on the other side of the political debate cannot accept that at the moment, but hope and expect that they will be fully part of the Team Scotland approach once the votes have been cast. It is also the case that a number of people outside party politics - but with key expertise - have already been approached and the response has been universally positive.
"More clearly than anything else this demonstrates the wish of those of us on the Yes side to move forward in a consensual way once the people have spoken."'
Interesting, not least because it will put Labour and LD MSPs in even more of a fix as to which way to come out publicly if the polls shift any more. Note that this was before the news about the UKGE and Euro voting intentions.
Hopefully not Labour donkeys. How can they negotiate after being joined at the hip with the Tories.
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
any suggestions?
Scotland ticks all the boxes except for the HOT part
It is entirely ip to the EU and Norway what the EU and Norway negotiate
...is not what Eck said
the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access
Access to Norwegian waters, dependent on Scottish access.
No, it isn't.
Scotland can't stop transit to Norwegian waters, nor fishing in Norwegian waters. Access is not dependent.
It is entirely ip to the EU and Norway what the EU and Norway negotiate
...is not what Eck said
the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access
Access to Norwegian waters, dependent on Scottish access.
No, it isn't.
Scotland can't stop transit to Norwegian waters, nor fishing in Norwegian waters. Access is not dependent.
You are confounding two interpretations of 'access', transit rights and fishing rights. The latter is obviously intended from the context and the former is meaningless given the geography of the North Sea!!
In the light of the massive scale of some of the weighting adjustments in opinion polls - the Guardian's ICM poll for May weights up C1 and C2 voters from 319 people in the base sample to 499 in the weighted sample - I have been giving some thought about how one might achieve a sample that was closer to being truly random.
The best that I could come up with would be to randomly select people to contact from the electoral roll - with the added advantage that these would be people who are actually registered to vote.
The main problems with this approach are that:
1. A fraction of the population is registered to vote at more than one address - eg University students, second-home owners, etc.
2. Some parts of the population are going to be more likely to respond, as with all types of opinion-polling, thus skewing the sample.
3. Commercial organisations are generally provided with the "edited" register which is useless for this purpose. I don't know if it would be practical or possible to collate the full register from every electoral district.
Does anyone else have any other ideas for how best to find a more random sample than random digit phone polling (which in any case randomly selects phone lines* rather than people), or internet panel polling (where one particularly worries about a self-selection bias).
* And so will consequently over-sample people who live on their own, I would have thought.
You are confounding two interpretations of 'access', transit rights and fishing rights. The latter is obviously intended from the context and the former is meaningless given the geography of the North Sea!!
No, I am still saying that Eck was wrong, on either interpretation.
Eck can't stop access (transit)
Eck can't stop access (fishing)
Neither transit nor fishing is dependent on anything Eck does or says.
'One of the shadow cabinet members I spoke to this morning told me: “They’re not talking about a 35 per cent strategy any more. Now it’s the 29 per cent plus 6 per cent strategy.” '
Is 29 per cent still core vote, or have UKIP eaten into that?
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
Cameron wants to be the man who saved the union but previous attempts by English Tories were counter-productive.He is still vulnerable to the Salmond attack on his failure to hold a head-to-head contest with him.
'One of the shadow cabinet members I spoke to this morning told me: “They’re not talking about a 35 per cent strategy any more. Now it’s the 29 per cent plus 6 per cent strategy.” '
Is 29 per cent still core vote, or have UKIP eaten into that?
Given that they outperformed in Scotland and will have had some 'stop the Tory' tacticals, core is probably 24-25%, and I don't see them exceeding it by much if they don't sort themselves out.
The real reason for the "messiah" complex you speak of is probably because Salmond and Farage are leading a party that could actually make a tangible, historical change rather than fiddle at the margins of current status quo, and while the cause is gaining momentum, human nature dictates that any follies are overlooked by supporters. All that matters is the end of the Union/EU membership
ISAM, I was not aware that UKIP had been on the go for 80 years or even 40 for that matter.
They havent, I dont get what you are saying?
You seemed to be saying that SNP started at similar time to UKIP, when they have been 80 years getting to where they are. I don't see many similarities between the SNP and UKIP, so was wondering why you thought they were the same or similar.
I didnt say anything at all about when either party had started, just that they have had sharp upturn in prominence relatively recently.. I know its dear to you and please dont take it the wrong way, but I had never heard of the SNP until probably 5 years ago.
The point was that people were saying UKIP and SNP supporters can see no wrong in their leaders, unlike the other three major parties supporters, and I thought that might be because the leaders are much more of a proxy for the ultimate aim with SNP and UKIP than fo rthe others who dont seem to stand for anything in particular/try to be all things to all people
Sam, no problem at all , I was just wondering what your thinking was. I think they are completely different personally and regard the views of the twisted Tories on here regarding supporters as seeing no wrong in the party leaders as just sour grapes because their chosen party has crap leadership. I am not personally connected in any way to the SNP but it is obvious that Salmond is a great politician and easily one of if not the best in the UK by a mile.
Good morning. Two polls giving the Tories a lead - and on the morning Labour's fancy new American hire flies in to town for his first meeting with Ed Miliband: the effect on Conservative MPs will be equal to an adrenaline shot to the heart. They have been desperate for evidence that the tide is turning, and now they have it. Even if we now get polls showing a Labour lead, Tories at last have evidence that things can go their way, and that they are steadily overhauling Labour. Polls are about psychology as much as about facts. They shape what people like me say, and they affect the mood of politicians. This morning's talk is of a boost to the Tories, but more telling will be the blow to Labour.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
When the tories start to get up to they GE polling figures,then I might start to believe ;-)
"I am going to be the rarest of beasts, a pollster who is not going to stand full square behind that aspect of the opinion poll. I am a little bit cautious about that particular finding, when it comes to European elections we expect a turnout of about 30% which ordinarily means that we are taking out a vast chunk of our poll sample from the start because theyre simply not going to be voting and theyre telling us that. So, you kow, when we have fewer number sto play with, we have wider margins of error so there is going to be some flux between the numbers... so are the tories in the lead as our poll suggests? Possibly, possibly not"
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
then the deal would, I assume, fall.
So does Salmond. But its a matter between the EU and Norway, who are entitled to sort out something themselves - outwith the gift of Scotland or Salmond.....
You keep bleating on like a broken record. Unlike you, Scotland and Salmond understand who owns the fishing rights in Norwegian waters. Your fixation seems to knock you senseless.
Chief Constable Simon Parr said: "I believe in this instance police attendance was not required and I have asked for our approach to this sort of incident to be reviewed to ensure we do not get involved unless there is clear evidence that an offence may have been committed."
Good morning. Two polls giving the Tories a lead - and on the morning Labour's fancy new American hire flies in to town for his first meeting with Ed Miliband: the effect on Conservative MPs will be equal to an adrenaline shot to the heart. They have been desperate for evidence that the tide is turning, and now they have it. Even if we now get polls showing a Labour lead, Tories at last have evidence that things can go their way, and that they are steadily overhauling Labour. Polls are about psychology as much as about facts. They shape what people like me say, and they affect the mood of politicians. This morning's talk is of a boost to the Tories, but more telling will be the blow to Labour.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
When the tories start to get up to they GE polling figures,then I might start to believe ;-)
Welcome back plato.
It's the kippers that are surging, 15% with ICM is very good. Everyone seems to be so convinved its not for real that they just ignore it now
I still maintain, just my opinion, that the best result for UKIP in 2015 would be a couple of seats with Lab abd COn polling less than 62-65% between them
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
any suggestions?
Scotland ticks all the boxes except for the HOT part
Going to be worse when rUK keeps 92% of the sunshine.
'One of the shadow cabinet members I spoke to this morning told me: “They’re not talking about a 35 per cent strategy any more. Now it’s the 29 per cent plus 6 per cent strategy.” '
The +6% might not be too much of a problem. The implied -0% could be.
Good morning. Two polls giving the Tories a lead - and on the morning Labour's fancy new American hire flies in to town for his first meeting with Ed Miliband: the effect on Conservative MPs will be equal to an adrenaline shot to the heart. They have been desperate for evidence that the tide is turning, and now they have it. Even if we now get polls showing a Labour lead, Tories at last have evidence that things can go their way, and that they are steadily overhauling Labour. Polls are about psychology as much as about facts. They shape what people like me say, and they affect the mood of politicians. This morning's talk is of a boost to the Tories, but more telling will be the blow to Labour.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
When the tories start to get up to they GE polling figures,then I might start to believe ;-)
Welcome back plato.
It's the kippers that are surging, 15% with ICM is very good. Everyone seems to be so convinved its not for real that they just ignore it now
I still maintain, just my opinion, that the best result for UKIP in 2015 would be a couple of seats with Lab abd COn polling less than 62-65% between them
Like I posted the other day,my mother voting for the first time in years (Last time labour she voted years back)and my sister who as never voted are now voting UKIP in the Euro's.
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
Why oh why did they cancel Southland?
(good to see you back here, btw)
You seem to have nailed it (the quote thingy).
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
I'm still in shock about the recent episode of The Good Wife that aired on more4 last week.
I like Nashville too, but The Americans, the wigs! the wigs!
re Good Wife I think it had lost its way a bit since the breakaway and as Will had wanted to leave for some time, apparently, this showed in his ambiguous character since that time...
Loving the wigs. Think she pulls it off better than he does. It's very dark, the series, that said. Missing Margo Martindale as a regular presence also. But still brilliant.
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
Didn't he say that the fishing fleets of 12 countries would be denied access to Norwegian waters as a consequence?
then the deal would, I assume, fall.
So does Salmond. But its a matter between the EU and Norway, who are entitled to sort out something themselves - outwith the gift of Scotland or Salmond.....
Unlike you, Scotland and Salmond understand who owns the fishing rights in Norwegian waters.
So why have the Scottish Fisherman's Federation written to him?
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
Actually what Salmond said is probably a good reflection of the future if Scotland is independent.
Access to the Norwegian fishing grounds (where 'access' is used in its accepted term when referring to fishing as meaning 'the right to fish') is probably entirely dependent on Scotland remaining in the EU. If Scotland leaves then the treaty agreement that gives Norway access to Scottish fishing grounds will no longer apply. In that case Norway will be allowing access to its own fishing grounds in return for nothing.
At that point I suspect the Norwegians will pull out of the deal, citing the loss of access to Scottish waters as a justifiable grounds.
The alternative is, of course, that the EU offers them something else in return. Not sure what they have that would be of interest to the Norwegian fishing industry though.
Straw poll. if the Lib Dems get 8% next year, given Cleggs personal ratings, is he safe? What say you?
Isn't' this year the danger time for Mr Clegg? If the Greens place above the LDs in the EU Parliament vote, that must surely make MPs, councillors, and volunteers wonder if a change in the leadership department might help.
It's interesting that if the UK wants to renegotiate the CAP, we're "bad Europeans", but France can sell warships to the country invading its neighbour, and nobody gives a damn.
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
Why oh why did they cancel Southland?
(good to see you back here, btw)
You seem to have nailed it (the quote thingy).
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
I'm still in shock about the recent episode of The Good Wife that aired on more4 last week.
I like Nashville too, but The Americans, the wigs! the wigs!
re Good Wife I think it had lost its way a bit since the breakaway and as Will had wanted to leave for some time, apparently, this showed in his ambiguous character since that time...
Loving the wigs. Think she pulls it off better than he does. It's very dark, the series, that said. Missing Margo Martindale as a regular presence also. But still brilliant.
The wigs sometimes makes it look like a bad 80s pop music video.
I miss Margo Martindale too, but she's moved onto the comedy, The Millers.
The election campaign is being managed by Spencer Livermore, who is trying to sell the whole package via classical New Labour hard marketing techniques. His colleague, Douglas Alexander, has reportedly been banished to Scotland as scapegoat for the disintegration of Labour’s Euro election campaign.......
When David Axelrod, the former Obama strategist, arrives for his first meetings with his new employers today, he could be forgiven for thinking he just walked into a lunatic asylum. “Where’s that guy who hired me?”. “Douglas? He’s off polling the Gorbals”.
But he won’t have walked into an asylum. He’ll have walked into Ed Miliband’s Labour Party. And there is nothing crazy, or remarkable or surprising about where that party finds itself this morning.
"I am going to be the rarest of beasts, a pollster who is not going to stand full square behind that aspect of the opinion poll. I am a little bit cautious about that particular finding, when it comes to European elections we expect a turnout of about 30% which ordinarily means that we are taking out a vast chunk of our poll sample from the start because theyre simply not going to be voting and theyre telling us that. So, you kow, when we have fewer number sto play with, we have wider margins of error so there is going to be some flux between the numbers... so are the tories in the lead as our poll suggests? Possibly, possibly not"
ICM tend to have lower UKIP (Westminster) numbers than other pollsters. Did he offer an explanation for why that might be?
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
any suggestions?
Oman. Has all that plus you get the desert thrown in for free and the people are great, friendly, generous and genuinely hospitable. If it hadn't been for Mrs Llama being physically incapable of coping with the heat I would never have come back.
Other places that spring to mind are in the Far East. Australia would be a good bet if you can get a resident's visa but I am not sure about their tax regime. For something a little less obvious, what about Sri Lanka? A pal of mine from my working days has retired there and she loves it. India, at least certain states in India, might also be worth a look.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
It's the first Tory lead in any opinion poll since the ICM Guardian of 18th March 2012, which was just three days before what came to be called the Omnishambles Budget.
This was back when UKIP were not far from being a rounding error in the opinion polls, so it is pretty remarkable to have the Conservatives regain an opinion poll lead with UKIP on 15%. Just for fun, the changes since that March 2012 ICM opinion poll are:
Con -6% Lab -5% LD -2% UKIP +14%
The 31% for Labour in the Guardian ICM is also the lowest score for Labour in any opinion poll since they were recorded at 30% by Opinium in August 2010. If the site can't get excited about this pair of polls it would be completely moribund. Of course, quite a bit of the current poll madness is due to the European election campaign, and UKIP may well subside once the elections pass.
However, it is interesting to compare with the ICM Guardian poll for May 2013, when UKIP were also on a surge. The changes in the last twelve months are:
Con +5% Lab -3% LD +2% UKIP -3%
That's a pretty good change for the parties of the Coalition Government. Perhaps the economic recovery is being translated into improvements in the opinion polls - which would make the next twelve months very uncomfortable for the Labour front bench.
I am trying this quote thingy to see how it works, but what a coincidence you are mentioning Southland TOPPING. I am just downloading it at present- we are looking for a TV series to get our teeth into.
Just seen last night's polling - LOL - very amusing.
Welcome back Plato, - why not stick around a little longer?, you're missing all the fun ; )
Hi Guys!
I saw the story in the Times and couldn't resist having a looksee - this is rib-tickling stuff.
Can anyone give me a quick update on what's been happening? I've been talking US TV shows/renewals/cancellations/newbies for weeks and no idea re polling recently.
Why oh why did they cancel Southland?
(good to see you back here, btw)
You seem to have nailed it (the quote thingy).
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
I'm still in shock about the recent episode of The Good Wife that aired on more4 last week.
I like Nashville too, but The Americans, the wigs! the wigs!
re Good Wife I think it had lost its way a bit since the breakaway and as Will had wanted to leave for some time, apparently, this showed in his ambiguous character since that time...
Loving the wigs. Think she pulls it off better than he does. It's very dark, the series, that said. Missing Margo Martindale as a regular presence also. But still brilliant.
The wigs sometimes makes it look like a bad 80s pop music video.
I miss Margo Martindale too, but she's moved onto the comedy, The Millers.
Looking at poor Sally Farmiloe as was (huge hair, etc) it can be difficult to remember just how dreadful everyone looked then.
Just received an email from Boris, telling me to use my vote next week.
They really are pulling out all the stops on this one.
I think the under noticed point so far is that the Conservative machine is still pretty good, if not actually better than in 2010 and can still get masses of bodies on the ground.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
It's the first Tory lead in any opinion poll since the ICM Guardian of 18th March 2012, which was just three days before what came to be called the Omnishambles Budget.
This was back when UKIP were not far from being a rounding error in the opinion polls, so it is pretty remarkable to have the Conservatives regain an opinion poll lead with UKIP on 15%. Just for fun, the changes since that March 2012 ICM opinion poll are:
Con -6% Lab -5% LD -2% UKIP +14%
The 31% for Labour in the Guardian ICM is also the lowest score for Labour in any opinion poll since they were recorded at 30% by Opinium in August 2010. If the site can't get excited about this pair of polls it would be completely moribund. Of course, quite a bit of the current poll madness is due to the European election campaign, and UKIP may well subside once the elections pass.
However, it is interesting to compare with the ICM Guardian poll for May 2013, when UKIP were also on a surge. The changes in the last twelve months are:
Con +5% Lab -3% LD +2% UKIP -3%
That's a pretty good change for the parties of the Coalition Government. Perhaps the economic recovery is being translated into improvements in the opinion polls - which would make the next twelve months very uncomfortable for the Labour front bench.
The 18% UKIP was _after_ the May 2013 election result. Immediately before they were on 9%.
ICM 14 April 2013 Con 32%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 9%.
O/T - where would be a nice place to retire to that meets the following conditions?
- hot. Like, Dubai hot - safe - low tax - booze available - nice beaches - nice places to eat out - minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
My personal favourite. But then you have to like living in the only Democrat City in the Republican Heartland in Democrat California... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laguna_Beach. It's a bit like being a pro-Union Catholic in Northern Ireland...
Straw poll. if the Lib Dems get 8% next year, given Cleggs personal ratings, is he safe? What say you?
Isn't' this year the danger time for Mr Clegg? If the Greens place above the LDs in the EU Parliament vote, that must surely make MPs, councillors, and volunteers wonder if a change in the leadership department might help.
Didn't the FDP in Germany try that sort of thing and it made no difference whatsoever.
Next General Election, recommendations - assuming you buy into the recent polls.
Tories Most Votes 10/11 Ladbrokes (looks a bit better value than 27/20 Most Seats) Con Majority 7/2 Unibet, 888 (this is now stale and an arb) Next Govt - Con Minority 8/1 Paddy Power [cf. Ladbrokes 9/2 on 301-325, and you're probably getting an effective range down to about 290]. I don't think the LD's will have the stomach for another coalition with the Tories, come what may. Year Of Next Election - 2015 1/9 William Hill. Free money.
Can we calm down abit on the 2 polls that show a tory lead,the worrying thing for the tories is that the polls show hardly no upward movement for the tories in the polls,it's labour going backwards that give them the bump up.
It's the first Tory lead in any opinion poll since the ICM Guardian of 18th March 2012, which was just three days before what came to be called the Omnishambles Budget.
This was back when UKIP were not far from being a rounding error in the opinion polls, so it is pretty remarkable to have the Conservatives regain an opinion poll lead with UKIP on 15%. Just for fun, the changes since that March 2012 ICM opinion poll are:
Con -6% Lab -5% LD -2% UKIP +14%
The 31% for Labour in the Guardian ICM is also the lowest score for Labour in any opinion poll since they were recorded at 30% by Opinium in August 2010. If the site can't get excited about this pair of polls it would be completely moribund. Of course, quite a bit of the current poll madness is due to the European election campaign, and UKIP may well subside once the elections pass.
However, it is interesting to compare with the ICM Guardian poll for May 2013, when UKIP were also on a surge. The changes in the last twelve months are:
Con +5% Lab -3% LD +2% UKIP -3%
That's a pretty good change for the parties of the Coalition Government. Perhaps the economic recovery is being translated into improvements in the opinion polls - which would make the next twelve months very uncomfortable for the Labour front bench.
The 18% UKIP was _after_ the May 2013 election result. Immediately before they were on 9%.
ICM 14 April 2013 Con 32%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 9%.
Ah, thanks - I forgot that we've pushed back the normal date of the local elections to match the European elections. That makes the relevant comparison of pre-election polls:
Con +1% Lab -7% LD -2% UKIP +6%
Did someone say UKIP wasn't going to hurt the Labour party?
Just received an email from Boris, telling me to use my vote next week.
They really are pulling out all the stops on this one.
Mayor of London saying vote for us in the London council elections...
Whatever next?!
The Conservative camapaign and literature for the London locals here in Sutton is better than ive seen it in the last 20 years. Much more organised and joined up with more activists on the ground. Wheteher it will translate into Councillors is a different matter..As someone said to me yesterday " They could disband the LibDem party and the Lib Dems would still win in Sutton.."
Comments
"Mais oui !"
Etc
Catherine McKinnell would get my vote
I'm going to have to reconsider my views on climate millennarianism.
Only in the twisted unionist mind could you make up that he did.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/5/13/1399974389828/Ed-Miliband-with-a-staff--011.jpg
Curious to see that it's more a GE leaflet, than one for the Euros. Leads one to believe that they've given up on the latter.
Welcome back, Tyson!
What brings you back from Florence- the need to work on your golf handicap?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-im-convening-team-scotland-to-talk-with-westminster-after-yes-vote.1399871637
'Commenting on the negotiating team [in the event of a Yes], he said: "The independence team will secure expertise from across the political spectrum and beyond, and from Scotland and beyond, to begin talks with Westminster before the end of this September - marking the point at which the real negotiations will begin.
"I understand that people on the other side of the political debate cannot accept that at the moment, but hope and expect that they will be fully part of the Team Scotland approach once the votes have been cast. It is also the case that a number of people outside party politics - but with key expertise - have already been approached and the response has been universally positive.
"More clearly than anything else this demonstrates the wish of those of us on the Yes side to move forward in a consensual way once the people have spoken."'
Interesting, not least because it will put Labour and LD MSPs in even more of a fix as to which way to come out publicly if the polls shift any more. Note that this was before the news about the UKGE and Euro voting intentions.
Miliband meanwhile has fallen even behind Nick Clegg in his approval rating, putting him on a dismal -25.
If the Tories succeed in turning the election campaign into a presidential-style run-off, those figures will spell disaster for Labour.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2014/05/where-has-labours-poll-lead-gone/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27390365
As an aside, it's odd how all the best members of the BBC F1 coverage are Scots. Of course, if the talented English hadn't been poached by Sky when the BBC decided to adopt a Judas Iscariot approach to F1 then there'd be a better balance.
Where does he say 'unlikely'?
the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access
Who has the 'twisted mind'?
The Scottish Fishermen's Federation, obviously.....
This post was brought to you by the unquiet shade of Tim.
Southland? Exceptional.
That makes IMO: Southland, Good Wife, The Americans & Nashville (for a bit of fluff) as excellent series.
- hot. Like, Dubai hot
- safe
- low tax
- booze available
- nice beaches
- nice places to eat out
- minimal risk of property expropriation a la Malta, Spain, Porchickle
any suggestions?
I like Nashville too, but The Americans, the wigs! the wigs!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/13/polls-show-conservatives-ahead-politics-live-blog#block-5371ee06e4b06b578cb82eb6
You're absolutely shafted as a Shadow Home Secretary if the Home Secretary is brilliant like Ms May.
Cue massive Home Office scandal that forces Theresa May to resign.
I didnt say anything at all about when either party had started, just that they have had sharp upturn in prominence relatively recently.. I know its dear to you and please dont take it the wrong way, but I had never heard of the SNP until probably 5 years ago.
The point was that people were saying UKIP and SNP supporters can see no wrong in their leaders, unlike the other three major parties supporters, and I thought that might be because the leaders are much more of a proxy for the ultimate aim with SNP and UKIP than fo rthe others who dont seem to stand for anything in particular/try to be all things to all people
On climate change, well, a stopped clock is right twice a day, I suppose.
Thanks- and Trotsky is fine Simon (well done for remembering), happily sleeping by my feet. As much as Italy is beautiful, I mean stunningly beautiful- food, climate, history, wine, sea, mountains, art, light, sky- really it is a crime that a country has so many wonderful things within one set of borders, it is not Blighty. And we are coming back because we miss the UK, and I guess we are missing the UK more than we are enjoying Italy. The balance has tipped so to speak.
@stephenkb: Struggling with a horrible feeling in my gut that @DPJHodges may have been right: http://t.co/jpa3aSARp7
No, it isn't.
Scotland can't stop transit to Norwegian waters, nor fishing in Norwegian waters. Access is not dependent.
No, it isn't.
Scotland can't stop transit to Norwegian waters, nor fishing in Norwegian waters. Access is not dependent.
You are confounding two interpretations of 'access', transit rights and fishing rights. The latter is obviously intended from the context and the former is meaningless given the geography of the North Sea!!
The best that I could come up with would be to randomly select people to contact from the electoral roll - with the added advantage that these would be people who are actually registered to vote.
The main problems with this approach are that:
1. A fraction of the population is registered to vote at more than one address - eg University students, second-home owners, etc.
2. Some parts of the population are going to be more likely to respond, as with all types of opinion-polling, thus skewing the sample.
3. Commercial organisations are generally provided with the "edited" register which is useless for this purpose. I don't know if it would be practical or possible to collate the full register from every electoral district.
Does anyone else have any other ideas for how best to find a more random sample than random digit phone polling (which in any case randomly selects phone lines* rather than people), or internet panel polling (where one particularly worries about a self-selection bias).
* And so will consequently over-sample people who live on their own, I would have thought.
Eck can't stop access (transit)
Eck can't stop access (fishing)
Neither transit nor fishing is dependent on anything Eck does or says.
Is 29 per cent still core vote, or have UKIP eaten into that?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/cameron-to-make-two-day-foray-to-scotland-to-fight-for-the-union-independen.24211998
I am not personally connected in any way to the SNP but it is obvious that Salmond is a great politician and easily one of if not the best in the UK by a mile.
When the tories start to get up to they GE polling figures,then I might start to believe ;-)
Welcome back plato.
"I am going to be the rarest of beasts, a pollster who is not going to stand full square behind that aspect of the opinion poll. I am a little bit cautious about that particular finding, when it comes to European elections we expect a turnout of about 30% which ordinarily means that we are taking out a vast chunk of our poll sample from the start because theyre simply not going to be voting and theyre telling us that. So, you kow, when we have fewer number sto play with, we have wider margins of error so there is going to be some flux between the numbers... so are the tories in the lead as our poll suggests? Possibly, possibly not"
Your fixation seems to knock you senseless.
Jolly good to see your post you old rogue.
May we assume more regular and welcome (if not always agreed with) missives.
L to the O to the L
I still maintain, just my opinion, that the best result for UKIP in 2015 would be a couple of seats with Lab abd COn polling less than 62-65% between them
if the Lib Dems get 8% next year, given Cleggs personal ratings, is he safe?
What say you?
Props to Liverpool for sticking by Brendan even though they finished 7th in 2012/13.
Like I posted the other day,my mother voting for the first time in years (Last time labour she voted years back)and my sister who as never voted are now voting UKIP in the Euro's.
Loving the wigs. Think she pulls it off better than he does. It's very dark, the series, that said. Missing Margo Martindale as a regular presence also. But still brilliant.
Do they not understand Scottish fishing either?
They really are pulling out all the stops on this one.
Eck said access would be 'dependent' in his speech, while the Nats this morning tell us in fact he meant 'independent'
It's the same mistake as an 'independent' Scotland still being entirely dependent on UK institutions
It's NatSpeak, a bit like NuSpeak.
http://www.dailyzone.com/articles/573/20140512/france-will-proceed-sale-warships-russia.htm
It's interesting that if the UK wants to renegotiate the CAP, we're "bad Europeans", but France can sell warships to the country invading its neighbour, and nobody gives a damn.
I miss Margo Martindale too, but she's moved onto the comedy, The Millers.
The election campaign is being managed by Spencer Livermore, who is trying to sell the whole package via classical New Labour hard marketing techniques. His colleague, Douglas Alexander, has reportedly been banished to Scotland as scapegoat for the disintegration of Labour’s Euro election campaign.......
When David Axelrod, the former Obama strategist, arrives for his first meetings with his new employers today, he could be forgiven for thinking he just walked into a lunatic asylum. “Where’s that guy who hired me?”. “Douglas? He’s off polling the Gorbals”.
But he won’t have walked into an asylum. He’ll have walked into Ed Miliband’s Labour Party. And there is nothing crazy, or remarkable or surprising about where that party finds itself this morning.
Other places that spring to mind are in the Far East. Australia would be a good bet if you can get a resident's visa but I am not sure about their tax regime. For something a little less obvious, what about Sri Lanka? A pal of mine from my working days has retired there and she loves it. India, at least certain states in India, might also be worth a look.
This was back when UKIP were not far from being a rounding error in the opinion polls, so it is pretty remarkable to have the Conservatives regain an opinion poll lead with UKIP on 15%. Just for fun, the changes since that March 2012 ICM opinion poll are:
Con -6%
Lab -5%
LD -2%
UKIP +14%
The 31% for Labour in the Guardian ICM is also the lowest score for Labour in any opinion poll since they were recorded at 30% by Opinium in August 2010. If the site can't get excited about this pair of polls it would be completely moribund. Of course, quite a bit of the current poll madness is due to the European election campaign, and UKIP may well subside once the elections pass.
However, it is interesting to compare with the ICM Guardian poll for May 2013, when UKIP were also on a surge. The changes in the last twelve months are:
Con +5%
Lab -3%
LD +2%
UKIP -3%
That's a pretty good change for the parties of the Coalition Government. Perhaps the economic recovery is being translated into improvements in the opinion polls - which would make the next twelve months very uncomfortable for the Labour front bench.
Apart from The Clash, of course.
ICM 14 April 2013
Con 32%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 9%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
SoCal: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_County,_California
My personal favourite. But then you have to like living in the only Democrat City in the Republican Heartland in Democrat California... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laguna_Beach. It's a bit like being a pro-Union Catholic in Northern Ireland...
Whatever next?!
Tories Most Votes 10/11 Ladbrokes (looks a bit better value than 27/20 Most Seats)
Con Majority 7/2 Unibet, 888 (this is now stale and an arb)
Next Govt - Con Minority 8/1 Paddy Power [cf. Ladbrokes 9/2 on 301-325, and you're probably getting an effective range down to about 290]. I don't think the LD's will have the stomach for another coalition with the Tories, come what may.
Year Of Next Election - 2015 1/9 William Hill. Free money.
Not taking a view on UKIP.
Con +1%
Lab -7%
LD -2%
UKIP +6%
Did someone say UKIP wasn't going to hurt the Labour party?
Much more organised and joined up with more activists on the ground. Wheteher it will translate into Councillors is a different matter..As someone said to me yesterday " They could disband the LibDem party and the Lib Dems would still win in Sutton.."
The Tories are engaging their supporters/voters in a way I've not seen before.
I've received literature via the post, I've received more emails than ever before with nuanced stuff and invites to take part in things.
And it looks professional and not spammy.
A boss with a three initial moniker will do you well, history shows that.
Remember, Spurs are on the up.
Tough act for the Axe to follow... (innocent face)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100271323/tories-ahead-in-the-polls-deep-down-every-labour-mp-knows-miliband-is-heading-for-defeat/