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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections
The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997.
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ICM 4/5/2009 Lab 28%
Result 4/6/2009 Lab 15.7%
It astounded me when someone wrote that half of the votes might have been already cast for the 2014 Euros.
This is an absolutely crucial point to take on board for IndyRef betters. While turnout is expected to be high, there will be differential turnout. There always is. And the party supporters least likely to actually get off the sofa and vote on 18 September are Labour. They nearly always are.
The Scottish Tories and the few Scottish Lib Dems left are all highly motivated, and at least 90% of them are leaning NO. David Cameron can depend upon these folk to get out and vote for London rule.
The Scottish National Party is also highly motivated. If anything even more so. At least 80% of our supporters are leaning YES and we can depend on these folk to get out and vote for Scottish self government.
Green support is small, and although heavily YES supporting, it has a significant NO tendency. They will only be decisive in an extremely tight result, which is entirely possible. They are not the world's most reliable voters, perhaps because they tend to be younger.
UKIP in Scotland are also small, but are presumably mostly leaning NO, and will get out to vote.
But Scottish Labour, the country's second-largest party, is the big mystery. After perusing Scottish polling for many years, it is clear that up to 40% of SLab voters lean towards YES. That has been during the long years of Labour governments in London. Now, with the Tories GB-wide pulling ahead in the polls, could that 40% "ceiling" be about to be breached? Add in their famous reluctance to get out to vote in anything other than UK general elections, and SLab voters are absolutely critical.
This will make things unclear right up to the final few days. Great territory for punters looking for value.
Ed Miliband to be Labour leader at Next General Election 1/12
Ed Miliband to be replaced as Labour leader before Next General Election 6/1
Is 6/1 not terribly short for somebody that is currently leading the Next Prime Minister market (4/5) ?
If he really is a shoo-in, one would expect him to be at least 50/1 to be replaced as Labour leader before next UK GE.
Quite a boring thread after yesterdays excitement. At least us unemployed have got Max Keiser to look forward to.
If done well it could be staggeringly effective
Sindy isn't popular with women and ABC classes.
Not so powerful, because not so true
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
Yougov 8/5/2009 Con 37%
BPIX 9/5/2009 Con 36%
Populus 10/5/2009 Con 34%
Result 4/6/2009 27.7%
However I believe Labour will this time break that chain and up their 29% from 2010 by a few points.
It has been interesting to see over the past two weeks talk of a Tory meltdown and the loss of 12+ euro seats become a possible Tory win (which some of us including OGH have said all along) and at worst the loss of 4 or 5 seats.
Wouldn't it be amusing if Labour gets a lower poll next week than 5 years ago and LOSES councils, if not council seats!
The natural order of things continues as Cambridge beats Oxford, again:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625709/Oxford-loses-Cambridge-fourth-year-row-new-league-table-universities.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10825155/A-day-in-the-life-of-David-Cameron.html
I wonder how a PM Miliband would fare? Poorly I suspect as the needs for wonkery yield to the needs for delivery.
Has he told them they're all wrong yet?
My dear fellow, are you beginning to revise your thinking on a YES win ?
Little over four months out and not a sign that YES is making any significant progress. Is it not going all a bit Pete Tong for the separatists .... and now we have Wee Eck all at sea over fishing !!
Errr....that's it.
Yesterday might have been a rude awakening for some Milibelievers, but for Labour’s realists, it was long expected and merely marked the next stage of what is going to be an increasingly difficult year for Labour.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/05/13/finally-the-scales-begin-to-fall-from-the-milibelievers-eyes/#more-18262
However to ease your predicament I can exclusively reveal to you, prior to the official 9:00am release, that for one party this new projection will register a record performance.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander has been drafted in to reinvigorate the Better Together campaign run by the former Chancellor amid growing concerns about his ‘lacklustre’ performance.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626699/Darling-sidelined-save-UK-lobby-Brown-bigger-role-against-SNP.html#ixzz31ZkKQ5wC
A record high .... A record low and a joint record low.
Record high is Dave?
Record low is Miliblob?
Joint record low is the pushmepullyouyellowperileurotrashsanctimoniousknobsparty?
Guess I'll just have to wait.
PS Of course I was jesting
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html
King Robert was a PR spiv as well. Must be a family tradition?
Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html
This is a very odd piece - one might think deliberate obfuscation. As I understand it, and has already been much discussed, this is nothing to do with transit rights but fishing rights. The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.
#SaveEd: Miliband had a worse approval rating than Nick Clegg in today's Guardian/ICM poll http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/tories-beat-ukip-to-first-place-in-guardianicm-euros-poll/
twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/466114252420710400/photo/1
As much of the electorate is quite cynical about the promises of politicians and their proven inability to keep these promises, EdM leaves himself open to this conclusion. He is very good at compiling a popular wish list but very poor (or non-existent) at explaining how it will be done. Thus it is highly probable that the electorate may conclude that he is 'all mouth and no trousers' - as the saying goes and would be unable to keep those promises.
Energy has been in the news enough (including that it was under EdM's care for some years) for people to realise that much of our energy supply is owned by non-UK companies. Also that energy prices cannot be controlled unless the UK owns/controls both the generation facility and its power source (e,g, gas, oil, coal etc).
If any of these are subject to a global market, then EdM's promise is false.
Wth rent controls, how would he ensure the quality of housing was maintained by the owner (more civil servants?) and not a return to Rachmanism.
Similarly any politician can promise jobs for all (wasn't that another EdM promise?) but unless it is explained how that will be done and how it will be paid for - that promise is false.
In the ST YouGov, even Labour voters expressed a preference for his brother DM over Ed by 39/12. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/45cxqhtvw7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140509.pdf
Access to Norwegian waters is non-negotiable, guaranteed by a UN convention that the SNP claim to support
As for hiding Darling in the cupboard, well I am going to hear him speak at Dundee University next week.
I am glad that Cameron is throwing himself into the campaign too. It is not without risks given the key voting group are Scottish Labour but Scots need to feel wanted by the country they are being asked to stay a part of and that is the PM's job. Not sure spurious calculations of "dividends" is the right way to go though. I would emphasise aspiration and opportunity over cash.
The next few days are going to be the key to the referendum as yesterday's polls sink in, especially if they are repeated. Yes is in the last chance saloon but they still have a chance. It is fortunate that Salmond is making a fool of himself yet again. The idea of him leading an independent Scotland becomes ever more frightening for ABC Scots.
Mr. Freggles, Mr. Flashman (deceased), not sure people deserve rewards for predicting the words of Miliband:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCem9EZb-YA
@jameschappers: EXC Alistair Darling 'effectively dumped' from campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following secret cross-party talks http://t.co/XVdnZx2TiP
Can we just be honest and wish Scotland farewell and good luck....
Crazy talk. Had there been crossover then surely Compouter would have popped up by now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
Unless Eck is going for a North Korean style isolationist policy.
Out of the Union, out of the EU and out of the UN.
30 minutes 30 seconds
Eck said that the fleets would be stopped from sailing through Scottish waters to reach Norwegian waters
" the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access "
Access to Norwegian waters, not fishing in Norwegian waters
Ashcroft shows just 1 in 8 are feeling any economic recovery, so the Tories repeatedly restating economic miracle just makes this disconnect between stated and actual reality wider and wider. It will be the same on energy. And rent. And cost of living. And access to GPs. Milliband has been great at identifying genuine problems just not yet persuasive at how he would fix them. And I think the reality here is that under the current failed economic model many are unfixable.
We have a major housing crisis and its getting worse. Landlords have to short let as the bankrupt banks demand it thanks to liquidity rules demanded by their insurers (HMG). Which combined with a lack of supply ramps prices so that people now are increasingly unable to afford to rent never mind buy. The solution is obvious - build social housing. But government and local govt are apparently broke and the developers don't want to know.....
But many of the facets that made him good in that role raise issues as to whether he should be the leader. Mistake number 452 (it was a while ago) Salmond made in this campaign was not debating Darling. While not the world's best debater Salmond would have had a lot more life about him. Probably too late now.
It is long past time that the Labour party in Scotland started taking this referendum a lot more seriously. Unionist friends of mine in Labour have been intensely frustrated at their apparent paralysis. They have a lot of work to do and a limited amount of time.
Carnyx, If it is posted by SCOTTP you know it is a blatant lie.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-27286872
Fun fact: a human will shift to a 25 hour day if they live in an environment without natural cues of light and dark (like a cave). Psychologists tested to see the impact of living in such a place, and the subject was surprised to get out so early as he thought (after quite a few weeks) he still had a few more days to go.
Exit polls predicting a big swing towards the right-wing BJP and its NDA (National Democratic Alliance) allies, the BJP itself winning up to 240 or so seats, giving the Right their first taste of government since they lost to the Congress Party and its UPA (United Progressive Alliance) allies back at the 2004 election.
Remember, this is isn't the BJP's first outright election win - that was back at the 1998 election, but a striking feature this time round is the scale of the Congress Party's rout. Some exit pollsters are predicting the party will be reduced to less than 100 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha, India's Lower House.
The other salient feature is a record 66.4% turnout. Obviously, whatever you think of his controversial past as Gujarat's Chief Minister, Narendra Modi has motivated the Indian electorate to a great degree. The other surprise is the Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party's poor showing in their stronghold of Delhi, the exit polls in the capital suggesting the BJP have won six of seven seats. Still, it would be interesting to see if the exit pollsters have got it right come Friday night! If you're wondering about Kerala, it's basically a straight fight between Congress and UPA allies, and the Communist Parties (either of Marxist flavour
or the non-Marxist one!) - the BJP currently have no seats here...
Here are a couple of SeanT style pics of Kappad beach (Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama's landing site in 1498), and a sunset some way south of there at Kadalundi. Both are recommended, and they are only a half-hour drive from Calicut city. However, the beach at the city itself is a little on the dirty side!
The weather is generally hot all day, but had a brief monsoon-like spell last Wednesday and Thursday, a few weeks ahead the scheduled start of the real monsoon.
http://t.co/eFwvgqtp1Q
http://t.co/SwyZPhOUOO
Miliband and Labour have done the first stage and highlighted problems. However they then come up with an utterly stupid solution for each one. Not just unworkable ones, but patently stupid ones. It is fun seeing the tribal Labour supporters on here perform acrobatics in trying to justify them.
Sadly, this is not just a Labour problem, but they are masters at it.
A large part of this country's large problems stem from your response - "what did X do". We have to think longer than 4 or 5 yearly election cycles. Other countries do, which is why they have infrastructure fit for purpose.
We (well, you, I don't get a vote) also need to consider the future trend for those things.