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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ten seats most likely to be affected by immigration
My intention is to highlight the very big gap between responses to questions on what are the big issues facing the country and what issues impact most on you and your family. Thus the last time that YouGov asked this 52% included it in their top three responses on the former question but only 17% raised it with the latter.
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I may be turning into an old fuddy duddy but I still prefer women without beards.
According to the ST yesterday the BoE is going to increase its growth forecast again this week to 3.5% and implicitly suggest that the first interest rate rises will be in Q1 of 2015. This is the longest run of increases in growth forecasts since 1997. I still think that Q4 of this year for the first modest rise is more likely and politically easier as well.
Many economists seem to have assumed that the UK economy would slow down a bit in the second half of this year. It appears the Bank does not agree. We will also get yet more good news on unemployment this week as well.
Is it really conceivable that the great British public will throw out a government which has produced such stunning results in time for the election and bring back those responsible for the mess? As the economic results move from good to excellent surely some credit will accrue? There is not a lot of evidence of this so far but the Labour vote is starting to soften which gives some hope.
Immigration really is not an issue up here at all. Even in the central belt there is nothing like the sort of pressures and congestion that I see in my trips south. In this respect at least we are indeed a different country.
Yes
When I've temped and a pole got there before me I didn't mind (at least I had got in and no-one has ever accused them of incompetence). When he happened to sit beside me at lunch time and someone accused him of quisling-ing I must say it was eye opening.
UKIP 31, Labour 25, Tories 23, LibDems 9. Is this a poll we have already seen elsewhere and if not can TSE/OGH find out about it?
Supposedly done by YouGov
There must be a fairly strong possibility of Labour being 3rd next week.
A more sophisticated point is that it's not clear that the recovery is being achieved sustainably, as evidenced by the balance of payments: arguably, it's principally built on credit and consumer borrowing.
If so there is still hope for the tories because this year will see increases in real earnings along with an increase in the value of most peoples' houses making them feel better off. As a country we still need to rebalance away from consumption and increase investment and production which means there is less of the growth available for joe public than would otherwise be the case but this year at least there should be some jam for all.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/deciding-next-election-1-west-midlands.html
Today's deals with the sad decline of Birmingham.
On this day in One Nine Nine Four
John Smith didn't breathe any more
His heart stopped and failed
His friends cried and wailed
His loss is incredibly sore.
A footballer named Gareth Bale
Joined the team in Madrid with the Réal
He's incredibly strong
With his legs lean and long
He's a very beautiful male.
A young Jewish actor called Dan
Is a gorgeous and sexy young man;
His masculine stubble
Enhances by double
The beauty and niceness of Dan.
A film made with Daniel and Dane
About killing a poet again
Was frenzied and arty
And depicted a party
Where they both were almost insane.
Prince Louis is handsome and lean
And when he was only nineteen
He became a new dad
Because he's a lad
Who is strong and sexy and keen.
It's a classic negotiating play.
Cameron is posing as the guy who wants to be helpful - wants the UK to stay in - but he's got to convince his boss (the voters).
He's setting it up to make it easy for his European counterparts to help him.
Creates potential for much sucking of teeth, shaking of heads, and then "well, I could try, but I don't think it'll pass muster. Perhaps if you could just do A & B as well..."
This growth, after an uncertain beginning, is now looking very healthy with manufacturing benefiting significantly. And, as you know, the super rich paraded in all their glory yesterday in the ST are paying more tax and a greater share of the tax than ever. Labour are going to need some new tunes as this year progresses.
Scott_P said:
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So this isn't praise for Putin?
Alex Salmond has revealed his admiration for "certain aspects" of Vladimir Putin's leadership and praised the way Russia's national pride has been restored.
FFS.
No criticism of the Sainted Eck will be tolerated. The Nats are getting truly scary.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10792044/Alex-Salmond-I-admire-certain-aspects-of-Vladimir-Putins-leadership.html
Scott, you really are thick. I admire certain aspects of your posting , ie constantly posting other people's twits, however I think you are a real plonker.
Can your pea brain take that in and realise that I am not really praising you there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20672090
Although obviously when immigration gets to a certain point (e.g. in London) there just aren't enough Ukip voters!
The campaign for Scottish independence is being funded almost solely by two lottery winners, and has received far fewer small donations than the No campaign.
Yes Scotland finally revealed its accounts following months of sustained pressure and speculation that it was struggling to secure financial support. They show that Colin and Chris Weir, who won £161 million in a Euromillions draw, have donated £2.5 million since April last year, on top of another £1 million previously. It means that the couple, from Ayrshire, have supplied the campaign with almost 80 per cent of its cash.
The books also show that Yes Scotland is struggling to secure as many small donations as might be expected, given its perceived strong grassroots support.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4086555.ece
Usual rubbish from Scott , only able to promote lies and London propaganda.
If you look at the crowdfunding by YES groups they are miles ahead of Better Together. Even if you look at the donations you will see people give more to YES and if you add that they only accept money from people who CAN vote in the referendum you may realise that most of the NO money comes from outside Scotland. Therefore they are doing poorly from a pool of 65 million compared to the YES pool of 5 million.
Finally no criminals from outside Scotland or dirty money can be donated to YES, NO will accept anything no questions asked.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/lord-ashcroft-my-polling-plan-this-month-and-as-the-next-election-approaches.html
Including weekly telephone polls!
Is it really going to be a Tory shoo-in? If so, Farage and Miliband ought to be concerned.
Best prices - Newark by-election
Con 8/13 (Lad)
Lab 4/1 (Hills)
UKIP 11/2 (PP)
LD 250/1 (various)
I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500 in less than 24 hrs. I'm sure James (if he wasn't banned) would like to thank all the PBers who still peruse his site for their no doubt substantial donations.
(No, I don't know the origin of the phrase either - I'd be interested to find out, though)
It should be remembered that Osborne will miss his targets on growth, debt, unemployment and inflation that he made in his first budget.
And the government babbling on about growth wont help them if the benefits that brings are concentrated in groups other than swing voters.
The point in real earnings increasing is a good one. Compare how real earnings were increasing in the month before previous elections:
Average annual earnings increases:
1983 May 8.9%
1987 May 8.6%
1992 Mar 9.1%
1997 Apr 4.0%
RPI annual increase
1983 May 3.7%
1987 May 4.1%
1992 Mar 4.0%
1997 Apr 2.4%
Notice how well people were doing before the 1992 election, I think it helps explain the 'surprise' Conservative victory. Likewise notice how little real earnings were increasing by in 1997.
The economy was in excellent shape in 1997, certainly far better than in 1992, but people weren't benefiting and so the Conservatives didn't benefit.
Now remember that currently RPI is higher than annual earnings increases.
So who's getting the benefit of this 'growth' we keep getting told about ?
If swing voters don't think they are then they're going to feel cheated.
Is it in Sheffield Central? or Sheffield Hillsborough and Brightside? Also an interesting area to see if UKIP really are making inroads into a historically Labour area.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
Opinium poll for Mail today has Euro elections too close to call: Ukip 28 Lab 27 Con 23 Lib Dem 8
Yeah, let's just get rid of this GDP thing the news sometimes talks about and vote green.
Why do you think they are lying to you?
In any case, that sectarianism DID arise in large part from (Irish) immigration in the first place. It is still a phenomenon in the West Central Belt but is not popular in general. Indeed, its decline is one aspect of the changes in Scottish society since the 1950s which led also to the collapse of the Tory vote, with which one form of sectarianism was strongly associated at the time. The name of the party, the Conservative and Unionist Party, is indeed a fossil relic of that era, as the Unionist refers to union with Ireland. But I certainly don't get any sense that the current Tories are sectarian in that sense (except insofar as someone of that mindset would probably be anti-indy and vote for the Tories for want of anything more specific).
"When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff."
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/m/marcustull156291.html#qmGDkyOHL4ArKMKJ.99
Mr. Richard, worth recalling there was a eurozone sovereign debt crisis. However, the emphasis on growth over all else by the media and, following that, the political class, does seem unhealthy.
Mr. Antifrank, I suspect they're more concerned about you taking their money.
It does sound like that old scoundrel, come to think of it...
Would you rather he kept on working and deprived someone else of a job?
What would you have said if they had given money to the no campaign?
As it is, I'm all for people donating to political parties and/or campaigns. If they believe in what the party, or the campaign, is doing, then let them give their money. It's why I was totally unfussed by J.K. Rowling giving a million to the Labour Party before the last election.
But the impact and worry is being felt all across Sheffield.
Won't have much impact. If Lab were reduced to 50 MPs, Brightside and Hillsborough would be one of the 50.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/lottery-winning-weirs-donate-25m-more-to-the-yes-campaign.24190350
[Yes Scotland] Smaller donations - classed as those under £7500 - were more numerous and more generous than in the previous year, with more than 11,000 people giving a total of £473,000.
The pro-Union Better Together campaign has declared donations of just £2.8m up to December 2013.
......... 17,400 people gave less than £7500, for a total of £341,600.
Better Together's largest donor to date is Donald Houston, owner of the Ardnamurchan Estate and the Adelphi distillery, who has given a total of £600,000 personally and via companies.
So Better Together small donors are more numerous, if parsimonious.......
I has no idea Donald Houston worked with war criminals - perhaps TUD could clarify?
Early on in economic recoveries, there is plenty of labour market slack, and therefore wage inflation is very muted.
Towards the end of an economic expansion cycle, the labour market is tight, and firms must pay up to attract and retain staff.
Basically, just as in 1997, the Labour Party (should they be elected in 2015) will get the benefit from the voters of the hard graft done in the preceding five years.
(Mrs Thatcher probably only got re-elected, after having done four years of hard work between 1979 and 1983 because of the SDP and the Falklands War. D'you think the Ukraine could turn it around for Dave?)
The ones that get my goat is Victor.
I wish in their adverts they'd tell people they close your account if you win a few bets.
Wow, that really does refute the claim in the article that the Lottery winners are funding 80% of the campaign.
Oh, wait...
I know maths is not a strong point for the YeSNP
However, I should have added that the individual should get no direct gain from any donation.
Apparently this weird and exotic outsider has a bearded wife, poses in an organic knitted seaweed thong and produces Austrian p0rn films classics such as "Rise like A Penis"
Well, I ask you it's all very well in the fleshpots of Bedford but the denizens of North Hertfordshire haven't seen such wide eyed and brazen behaviour since the Mayors wife flashed a shapely ankle at the Town VE Day celebrations in May 1945.
As it happens crowdfunding has raised over £300k for Yes causes. What's the total for No?
Sorry to give you language and maths lessons this early in the morning.
In my experience, Betfred are the worst of the big firms when it comes to closing accounts or restricting you to footling amounts as soon as you show any sign of knowing what you are doing. Stan James, a much smaller outfit, are bad but in a slightly different way; they are reluctant to take large bets generally.
I have noticed an apparent change in attitude from other firms though. There does now seem to be a greater tolerance of the more professional punter. I wonder if this is related to the recent Parliamentary scrutiny of bookmaker activities? I appreciate it was mainly focused on the iniquitous 'slot-machines' in betting shops, but I suspect that words have been said about their cartel-like practices generally.
Maybe the wiser bods at Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betvictor understand that it's not a good idea to sail too close to the wind.
Earnings +15.9%
RPI +10.1%
Real earnings rising fast - perhaps connected with all those pay strikes - and helps explain why Labour lost so few votes compared with 1974 despite the disasters of the previous five years.
2001
Earnings +5.8%
RPI +1.8%
Solid growth in real earnings underpins easy Labour reelection
2005
Earnings +4.4%
RPI +3.2%
Weak earnings growth and big fall in Labour vote
2010
Earnings +0.4% but had been +6.7% the month before, a very variable year.
RPI +5.3%
Ouch! Labour vote disintegrates. Public sector earnings though were still increasing at over 3% during the recession and leading up to the general election, which helps to explain how well Labour did among them.
Of course each election varies and there are numerous factors but real earnings growth is something the average voter personally experiences much more than most economic stats.
80% of YES funding comes from a single source.
Various incensed Nats; "But crowd Sourcing!" "Yes, crowd sourcing!"
Now, "crowd sourcing is not related to the original claim about campaign funding"
Ok, you win, crowd sourcing is not related to campaign funding, almost all of which for YES comes from a single source.
Peace and harmony are restored to PB...
Its the period of 1993 to 2007 which was the exception in its paucity of crises.
And madainn mhath to you too, young Jack.
BBC:
'In 2007, Vitol was heavily fined by a New York court after admitting making payments to the national oil company in Saddam Hussein's Iraq which were outside the UN's oil for food programme.
Vitol is also reported to have paid $1m to the notorious Serbian paramilitary Arkan as part of an oil deal in the 1990s. The company said it had not acted illegally. '
http://tinyurl.com/cgj2ca8
1 day 1 minute 1 second
Ms Baillie also pointed out that Mr Taylor had made important investments in the Harris tweed industry on the Western Isles, a constituency represented at Holyrood and Westminster by the SNP.
"Is the first minister equally suggesting that Mr Taylor should disinvest from Harris tweed?" she said. "I don't think he's said that today."
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie also defended the use of Mr Taylor's money.
He said: "If it's good enough for Harris tweed, it should be good enough for Better Together."
Today is a horrible day to be a Liverpool fan in Manchester
Ukip 31
LAB 25
CON 23
LD 9
http://t.co/n57mF1HnaM
Titters .... She's away .....
Cheeky boy!
You know the only beard I have is the betting kind. Now off you go and work on your ARSE.
Thanks
Foreign books must therefore be banned.
Personally I'd tell him to stick his tweed money where the sun don't shine, but I don't have to sit at a loom in a drafty shed on the West coast of Harris in January.
Ian Taylor, an oil-industry executive, [spent] £2.5m ($3.7m) on buying and re-equipping [an idle mill] to resurrect bespoke manufacturing. It was tough going at first, says Ian Mackenzie, chief executive of Harris Tweed Hebrides. From a low of just 455,000 metres made in 2009, production has climbed as the firm (which reckons it accounted for 85% of the 1m metres of cloth made in 2012) won customers ranging from Chanel to J. Crew, an American retailer. “We have about 600 patterns now,” he says, showing off traditional green and brown tweeds reflecting the island landscape outside his window and more vivid reds and purples for urban fashionistas.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21573552-old-industry-goes-back-basics-loom-and-bust
Was he an "employer of war criminals and sanctions buster" when spending FIVE times as much in an SNP constituency?
Have they called for disinvestment in Harris Tweed? He's only responsible for 85% of it......
I do hope so !!
It will forecast a result similar to 2010 and conclude that Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
No .... or back in Austria either !!
Do we think Cameron still reads it or was that all just a bit of nonsense spin??
My claim to fame is one of my threads really annoyed him
Sweetie, nobody has ever blocked one of my live performances.....
http://yarmresidentsassociation.org/yarm-4-yorkshire-chance-vote-future-27th-may-2014/
They should take everything south of the Tees with them!