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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ten seats most likely to be affected by immigration

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Usual rubbish from Scott , only able to promote lies and London propaganda.

    These are the official figures submitted by the YeSNP.

    Why do you think they are lying to you?
    Scott , Obviously you are unable to read the figures.
    I know you have difficulty working out which is bigger of 8% and 92%.....how about 11,000 and 17,400?

    How about 5 million versus 65 million. Comparing apples with oranges is a favoured unionist ploy.
    I am comparing 'small donor numbers' with 'small donor numbers' - what are you comparing?

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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    antifrank said:

    Could someone direct me to a recent poll with a forced choice between Ed Miliband/Labour and David Cameron/Conservatives? My particular interest is the split of current Lib Dem supporters.

    YouGov occasionally do the question, I'm on my mobile, so can't do a search of the yougov website.

    But that's the best place to look.
    This may help you
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/45cxqhtvw7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140509.pdf
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Neither Dave nor Salmond should step down if they lose the Indy Ref, both men have asked the voters and fair play to them for that, no matter the result.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    A reliable source has just informed me, the Guardian/ICM poll has been completed, it may be out today or tomorrow
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    If you look at the crowdfunding by YES groups they are miles ahead of Better Together.

    Very true.
    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500 in less than 24 hrs. I'm sure James (if he wasn't banned) would like to thank all the PBers who still peruse his site for their no doubt substantial donations.
    LOL, it was achieved very quickly. Given the Sunday Mail voodoo poll yesterday it needs someone to be analysing the polls. What is the betting we never see the detail behind their supposed "Demographics".
    I don't think Progressive Scotland have ever published detailed methodology. Despite Bettertogether & associated numpties trying to promote it as another Yougov poll, Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report says not.

    'Anthony Wells

    Barbazenzero – I couldn’t find it on their site either, but it’s generally safe to trust John Curtice.

    Progressive Polling polls are NOT YouGov polls. In the past I think YouGov have done some of their fieldwork, but that doesn’t mean they are weighted the same way as YG polls so you should compare them to the last PP poll, not to YG polls (as far as I’m aware this last one was nothing at all to do with YG and had fieldwork done elsewhere, but I couldn’t vouch for that 100%, it may be something done without my knowledge).'
    Ah, so now you're dismissing yesterday's poll as a "Voodoo Poll" as it was done by the non-BPC registered "Progressive Scottish Opinion".

    Right?

    Would that be the same "Progressive Scottish Opinion" which conducted a Holyrood Poll in 2011, which correctly predicted the SNP victory, and which was rapturously greeted by Nicola Sturgeon herself?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/27084/terms.html

    Eesh. These *voodoo pollsters*. Can't trust 'em.
    If you're going to put quotes round "Voodoo Poll", you should probably be replying to the poster that used the term, or else you look a bit silly.

    Anthony Wells of Yougov:

    'you should compare them to the last PP poll, not to YG polls'

    So that's a 6pt swing to Yes then?



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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited May 2014
    The British public didnt vote for an Austrian bearded lady in the Eurovison, they voted for busty Polish girls

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/Britain-Did-Not-Vote-For-The-Bearded-Lady
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:


    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500

    So crowd sourcing raised 0.1% of the funding compared to a single Lottery win donation.

    Wow, that really does refute the claim in the article that the Lottery winners are funding 80% of the campaign.

    Oh, wait...

    I know maths is not a strong point for the YeSNP
    In what sense is it supposed to be a refutation of your tedious regurgitations?
    As it happens crowdfunding has raised over £300k for Yes causes. What's the total for No?

    Sorry to give you language and maths lessons this early in the morning.

    Going to clarify your "war criminals" comment? Wouldn't want to get OGH into trouble.....

    Ok, for clarity, Bettertogether's SECOND largest donor (formerly largest) is an employer of war criminals and sanction buster.

    You missed a bit:

    Ms Baillie also pointed out that Mr Taylor had made important investments in the Harris tweed industry on the Western Isles, a constituency represented at Holyrood and Westminster by the SNP.

    "Is the first minister equally suggesting that Mr Taylor should disinvest from Harris tweed?" she said. "I don't think he's said that today."

    Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie also defended the use of Mr Taylor's money.

    He said: "If it's good enough for Harris tweed, it should be good enough for Better Together."

    It would be very interesting to know how much of the NO money was actually raised in Scotland
    Well, we know 80% of the YES money came from the Euro lottery - so how much of that was raised in Scotland?

    LIAR. Not a penny came from there.
    AFAIK all the Weir's money came from the Euro Millions win......

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    If you look at the crowdfunding by YES groups they are miles ahead of Better Together.

    Very true.
    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500 in less than 24 hrs. I'm sure James (if he wasn't banned) would like to thank all the PBers who still peruse his site for their no doubt substantial donations.
    LOL, it was achieved very quickly. Given the Sunday Mail voodoo poll yesterday it needs someone to be analysing the polls. What is the betting we never see the detail behind their supposed "Demographics".
    I don't think Progressive Scotland have ever published detailed methodology. Despite Bettertogether & associated numpties trying to promote it as another Yougov poll, Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report says not.

    'Anthony Wells

    Barbazenzero – I couldn’t find it on their site either, but it’s generally safe to trust John Curtice.

    Progressive Polling polls are NOT YouGov polls. In the past I think YouGov have done some of their fieldwork, but that doesn’t mean they are weighted the same way as YG polls so you should compare them to the last PP poll, not to YG polls (as far as I’m aware this last one was nothing at all to do with YG and had fieldwork done elsewhere, but I couldn’t vouch for that 100%, it may be something done without my knowledge).'
    Ah, so now you're dismissing yesterday's poll as a "Voodoo Poll" as it was done by the non-BPC registered "Progressive Scottish Opinion".

    Right?

    Would that be the same "Progressive Scottish Opinion" which conducted a Holyrood Poll in 2011, which correctly predicted the SNP victory, and which was rapturously greeted by Nicola Sturgeon herself?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/27084/terms.html

    Eesh. These *voodoo pollsters*. Can't trust 'em.
    So that's a 6pt swing to Yes then?
    Which I pointed out yesterday.......

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Neither Dave nor Salmond should step down if they lose the Indy Ref, both men have asked the voters and fair play to them for that, no matter the result.

    Neither has to, but I expect that Alex Salmond will step down if he is on the losing side. He's already stepped away from the SNP leadership once and he has a hinterland.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    isam said:

    The British public didnt vote for an Austrian bearded lady in the Eurovison, they voted for busty Polish girls

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/Britain-Did-Not-Vote-For-The-Bearded-Lady

    They were busty? I didn't notice, I was too busy appreciating their music.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Danny Shaw ‏@DannyShawBBC 2m

    Brixton jail governor fails drugs test (after eating poppy seed bread from kitchens). Said to explain why inmates were also testing positive
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    isam said:

    The British public didnt vote for an Austrian bearded lady in the Eurovison, they voted for busty Polish girls

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/Britain-Did-Not-Vote-For-The-Bearded-Lady

    Story came from the Spectator

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/05/sorry-britain-didnt-vote-for-the-austrian-bearded-lady-2/
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2014

    A reliable source has just informed me, the Guardian/ICM poll has been completed, it may be out today or tomorrow

    Yes! You Rock!

    Talking of rock, I hear Axl Rose is flying in to address the Labour Party faithful this week!

    That should wake them up....

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    OT, according to Bild Zeitung (so it must be true) Juncker says Merkel has agreed to make him Commission president if the EPP wins:
    http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/juncker-merkel-promised-give-me-commission-presidency-if-epp-wins-302054

    It's still not clear if she or other member states will agree to nominate Schulz if the PES win. If she's really opposed she can refuse to name him as a German Commissioner in the first place. I'm not sure if the rules would allow some other member state to nominate him instead...
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    taffys said:

    That's the thing about immigration. It works brilliant well from some countries, and not so well from others.

    I guess it works best in those countries where recent immigrants do not qualify for welfare benefits. Then everyone who turns up has to be damn sure they will be able to earn a living.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Next said:

    isam said:

    The British public didnt vote for an Austrian bearded lady in the Eurovison, they voted for busty Polish girls

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/Britain-Did-Not-Vote-For-The-Bearded-Lady

    Story came from the Spectator

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/05/sorry-britain-didnt-vote-for-the-austrian-bearded-lady-2/
    Typical from Europe, unelected bureaucrat deciding what's best ;-)
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder where the Populus Monday morning poll has got to?

    It's often not out until lunchtime.

    I think Ipsos-MORI is about due, and of course we are going to get the first Ashcroft weekly poll.

    Also wondering if that Opinium Euro poll had a Westminster VI question as well.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    To be able to vote No and still have ASalmond and the SNP fighting for more/better Scottish rights will be quite an attractive option for many.

    Yes, quite. I think that is exactly right, and for that reason I don't buy the idea that a No will lead to a big setback for the SNP in Westminster and Holyrood elections.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Want to know what the UK will look like under Miliband? Look at Wales
    Today, Labour in Wales celebrate 15 years in power. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, party members will congratulate themselves on what a fantastic job they’re doing. First Minister Carwyn Jones claims his administration represents a ‘living, breathing example of what the party can achieve in power’. Labour leader Ed Miliband agrees. He says ‘we have a great deal to learn from the things that Carwyn and his government are doing’. On housing, on health, on education, on people’s spending power – Labour certainly talks the talk. But in Wales, where they have had ample time to prove themselves, are they living up to Labour’s big promises?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/want-to-know-what-the-uk-will-look-like-under-miliband-look-at-wales/
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    Exactly. Mes sentiments exactement as they say in south Kensington, Hackney, and Highbury.

    If the number of French in London is the 400,000 often given, then London is already France's fifth-largest city, ahead of Nice and just behind Toulouse.

    < snipped for space >

    About 2.5 million votes were cast in the GE in Scotland of which ~16% were Conservative, i.e. 400,000. If we say 35% Conservative would be more representative, then that says 19% of the 35% are not in Scotland, i.e. 475,000. So a ballpark estimate of Scots in England would be that sort of number. This would make London Scotland's second-largest city after Glasgow. Of course, it's not clear that all 475,000 are in London, but probably one could estimate where in the world they all are, based on where other UK citizens tend to move to.

    I am tempted to add to this London number those Scots who can be found drunk at 7am in a pool of urine in a London shop doorway, shouting angrily at themselves. But to be fair, this cannot be more than a few thousand more, at the most, and not enough to allow London to overtake Glasgow.

    A colleague of mine once opined that there are some countries - he cited Australia, Ireland, and Canada - that produce more top-quality graduates than their economies can employ, and lack sufficient world-class industries for them all to work in. These folk thus have to emigrate to get decent jobs. I think we'd have to add iScotland to that list, and indeed it may be the basket case it is because this exodus has already happened. The French diaspora is tax-driven and clearly temporary; it's a lot less obvious what will eventually lure enterprising and prosperous Scots "haem the noo".

    I am not sure I follow your numerical reasoning but on an associated note I would suggest that one of the reasons for the disproportionately poor results in education in Wales is emigration.

    As you state about Australia, if there are not enough jobs for bright people then those bright people leave. As Mr. Financier tells us, in South Wales, especially in the valleys, those with a spark of get up and go and got up and gone. Of course, the offspring of the none too bright and poorly-educated can be very intelligent in a way that will enable them to succeed in our education system but are statistically less likely to be so than the children of the well-educated and dynamic. Take out a very large chunk of the latter from the pool and the raw material the teachers have left to work with is going to be towards the left of the standard bell curve, so the final result, assuming a normal distribution of teacher quality, is likely to be in the same region. As the old saying goes you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

    .
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Next said:

    isam said:

    The British public didnt vote for an Austrian bearded lady in the Eurovison, they voted for busty Polish girls

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/Britain-Did-Not-Vote-For-The-Bearded-Lady

    Story came from the Spectator

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/05/sorry-britain-didnt-vote-for-the-austrian-bearded-lady-2/
    Jim_Watford • 18 minutes ago
    It was all very European, the peoples vote overridden by those no one voted for.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014

    Morning all.

    ...

    It is not hard to see what the Tory message will be, and indeed already is: ""Things are getting better, slowly, there is more to be done, so vote for us otherwise it will all be wrecked".

    Richard

    I think it is time to drop the qualifying adjective "slowly".

    The Lloyds Bank Regional PMI, published this morning, has indicated strong rises in business output and employment in April with rates of growth in both accelerating. Robust rises were recorded in both public and private sector, across all nine regions and from both manufacturers and service providers. This led to the overall index rising from 58.1 in March to 59.3 in April.

    Strength varied regionally but all English regions came in firmly above 55.0:

    London remained the best performing English region in April (output index 62.0), followed by the East Midlands (60.6) and the East of England (59.9). Yorkshire & Humber (56.4) and the West Midlands (56.9) registered the slowest output growth of the nine English regions.

    Wales recorded a second high of 60.2 just below its survey record of 60.5 last month.

    Job creation figures showed a marked upturn with record employment growth recorded in the Yorkshire & Humber (58.5), the North West (58.5), the East of England (57.0) and the East Midlands (56.6).

    And to cap it all input price inflation was "subdued" and output price increases were "marginal".

    The big surprise is that rates of growth recorded during the last financial year were almost universally expected to abate over 2014-15. Early days yet but no one was expecting growth to accelerate, hence the daily upward revisions in UK GDP growth forecasts we are seeing from the economic agencies.

    Very good news indeed.

    Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with political options which may lead to all this progress being thrown away.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    ''Very good news indeed. Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with throwing it all away.''

    They see David Cameron as a big government, pro vested interest, pro big business, pro ruling elite europhile??

    As his decision to let HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens aptly illustrates.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    AveryLP said:

    Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with political options which may lead to all this progress being thrown away.

    The Tories are keeping the yellow boxes back for a surprise attack during the last weeks of the campaign. The two Eds won't know what hit them.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    taffys said:


    As his decision to let HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens aptly illustrates.

    You really are over-reacting to this rather minor story. How exactly is going for people who, after four warnings, still don't pay the assessed tax 'pro vested interest, pro big business, pro ruling elite europhile'? Those of us who have no choice but to pay our tax on time (actually, in advance) under PAYE, and who pay any assessed or estimated tax on time, are currently subsidising those who game the system. It's hardly 'letting HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens', more clamping down on tax avoidance.

    That's not to say that I approve of the proposals as they stand - some extra safeguards are required, as the excellent Andrew Tyrie has argued. But, really, your reaction is ridiculously over-the-top.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    Eccentric LibDem marketing: in my day job we're looking at having a fringe event at the LibDem conference (and the other conferences too, including UKIP). They've emailed me and urged me to follow the links to corporate and commercial opportunities at the conference. I've tried both, and get the message:

    "Just like evidence of Labour standing up to UKIP, this page is nowhere to be found."

    Duh.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    @NickPalmer - That's brilliant!
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The two Eds won't know what hit them.

    The HMRC proposal will entrench an already embedded system whereby rich people and big companies employ accountants to talk nicely to the revenue, whilst ordinary people - small businesses, pensioners, the self employed (ie what used to be the bedrock of tory support), struggle big time.

    The yellow box numbers will continue to look good of course, and Avery's bewilderment at why the tories aren;t doing better will only increase.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    In short, Miliband has so far failed to convert enthusiasm for his policies into support for his leadership. The reason is that he is still losing the "valence" war with David Cameron. Valence is the term political scientists use to describe that bundle of qualities that tend to matter most to swing voters – competence, honesty, strength of character and so on. Parties and their leaders can announce the world's most popular policies, but they will still lose if voters think they aren't up to the job of governing Britain, or won't keep their word, or will duck tough choices.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/12/ed-miliband-uk-backs-policies-but-not-the-man
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 35 (+3); LD 8 (=); UKIP 13 (-3); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://t.co/kaDwObzgOs
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with political options which may lead to all this progress being thrown away."

    Well, one answer might be because not 1 in a 100 voters understand what GDP means but because our politicians have talking about nothing else for years they assume it is an important measurement of wealth. Therefore if the economy is growing but they are not getting richer it must mean that some other (rich) bugger is getting all the extra pies. The politicians are entirely host on their own petard here. By concentrating exclusively on a measure of growth, which only has a second order relationship to wealth, they have created a false expectation.

    Labour by trying to exploit that false expectation to foster the politics of envy for their own short-term electoral advantage, will if they succeed, not be immune from its effects. If they get in they will need a damn good reason why they don't share the proceeds of growth either.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    YouGov analysis on the swing in Europe to Eurosceptics:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/12/swing-eurosceptic-right/
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    Scott_P said:

    @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 35 (+3); LD 8 (=); UKIP 13 (-3); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://t.co/kaDwObzgOs

    That's a bit better.

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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Populus flies in the face of Sundays polling. That, and the closer Euro polls will ease tension a little at Tory HQ
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 35 (+3); LD 8 (=); UKIP 13 (-3); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140512
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Wonder who would win if the British public had a forced choice:

    Who do you dislike more:

    a) The taxman.
    b) Tax dodgers.

    Personally quite glad to see tax avoiders have to pay it back now. George has done alot of good work in this area.

    On the raiding bank accounts proposal I assume it needs a court order ? Or not ?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736

    "Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with political options which may lead to all this progress being thrown away."

    Well, one answer might be because not 1 in a 100 voters understand what GDP means but because our politicians have talking about nothing else for years they assume it is an important measurement of wealth. Therefore if the economy is growing but they are not getting richer it must mean that some other (rich) bugger is getting all the extra pies. The politicians are entirely host on their own petard here. By concentrating exclusively on a measure of growth, which only has a second order relationship to wealth, they have created a false expectation.

    Labour by trying to exploit that false expectation to foster the politics of envy for their own short-term electoral advantage, will if they succeed, not be immune from its effects. If they get in they will need a damn good reason why they don't share the proceeds of growth either.

    That's a very good point - but if any politician tries to suggest some other measure they would no doubt get castigated for 'moving the goalposts' however well meaning they are being. Out of interest - what would your preferred measure be? Private Sector GDP, GDP Ex Deficit, something else entirely?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    YouGov analysis on the swing in Europe to Eurosceptics:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/12/swing-eurosceptic-right/

    Is there a reason they use the pre-1801 flag for the UK?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    About a week ago I was wondering whether Labour might come third in the Euros and now a poll has come out putting them just 2 points ahead of the Tories. That means if turnout is worse than expected in places like Liverpool and Manchester, they could be in real trouble.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    But, really, your reaction is ridiculously over-the-top.

    For me Cameron's idea to in effect suspend the rule of law to collect such a p*ddling sum is what is ridiculously over the top.

    As was the outrageous lie that taxes might have to rise if it was not collected.

    If you want the money, get a court order, like every body else.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder who would win if the British public had a forced choice:

    Who do you dislike more:

    a) The taxman.
    b) Tax dodgers.

    Personally quite glad to see tax avoiders have to pay it back now. George has done alot of good work in this area.

    On the raiding bank accounts proposal I assume it needs a court order ? Or not ?

    As the excellent Eddi Reader once sang:

    "No pain, no gain, that's what they're saying and it's hard to disagree
    But I thought somehow they weren't including me
    Oh but I thought I'd be the exception
    Oh yes I thought I'd be the exception
    But don't we all think we're the exception
    Sometimes, sometimes"
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    Pulpstar said:


    On the raiding bank accounts proposal I assume it needs a court order ? Or not ?

    No - that's part of the reason people are complaining about it.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Socrates said:

    YouGov analysis on the swing in Europe to Eurosceptics:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/12/swing-eurosceptic-right/

    Is there a reason they use the pre-1801 flag for the UK?
    Well spotted! Someone has asked them if it is because the poll does not include NI......but I suspect Cock up over conspiracy.....

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    YouGov have just asked me for my suggestions for things they should do in the future

    You'll all be delighted to know I've suggested they do a daily poll on the Indyref.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited May 2014
    This'll go through on the nod.....a tunnel under St John's Wood, Primrose Hill, Camden and Islington....

    twitter.com/standardnews/status/465809808747409408/photo/1
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    taffys said:

    ''Very good news indeed. Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with throwing it all away.''

    They see David Cameron as a big government, pro vested interest, pro big business, pro ruling elite europhile??

    As his decision to let HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens aptly illustrates.

    taffys

    David Cameron is not half as "big government, pro vested interest, pro big business, pro ruling elite europhile" as the CBI.

    Just after pushing the send button on my post, I popped along to Digitallook and I see the CBI are also warning of "political risk".

    But [the CBI] said political uncertainty and whims pose a major risk to the revival.

    [It] wants the government to eliminate the budget deficit, scrap immigration reduction targets and ensure a long-term strategic approach to big infrastructure projects.

    It also demanded an end to talk about a UK exit from the European Union, which it says would damage the economy and deter potential inward investment.

    CBI Director-General John Cridland said: "The UK now has more stable economic foundations and political risks must not jeopardise this.

    "The recovery is advancing after a strong performance in the first quarter of 2014. Prospects are bright and we expect the recovery to broaden out this year, with greater support from business investment in particular.

    "Businesses recognise the realities of election time but want all parties to ensure their policies make a positive difference. Politicians must be wary of the risk of headline-grabbing policies that weaken investment, opportunity and jobs."


    Goodness me. Radical cuts to eliminate the deficit. Increased immigration. More HS2 type projects. And an end to any talk about Brexit.

    If that doesn't wake the Kippers up, I know not what will.

    And not a mention of HMRC's plans to collect tax by direct debit mandate.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    edited May 2014
    Comedy weighting on UKIP VI once again:

    Current Poll:
    UKIP 298/2056 13% weighted
    Previous Poll:
    UKIP 272/2006 16% weighted
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Who do you dislike more:

    a) The taxman.
    b) Tax dodgers.

    How do you know these people are tax dodgers? Because HMRC (anxious to please their political masters) tells you so?

    The whole point is that HMRC would be able to confiscate the money of certain individuals without going to court. People they, an unaccountable organ of state, have decided are serial offenders.

    In effect the burden of proof would then be transferred to be the person who has had his money taken.

    Say they made a mistake and you were innocent. How much would you need to lose before taking the revenue to court? A grand? 10? 20?


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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder who would win if the British public had a forced choice:

    Who do you dislike more:

    a) The taxman.
    b) Tax dodgers.

    Personally quite glad to see tax avoiders have to pay it back now. George has done alot of good work in this area.

    On the raiding bank accounts proposal I assume it needs a court order ? Or not ?

    Mr. Pulpstar, its the fact that the new measures will not need a court order that is causing the fuss. HMRC are seeking to become judge, jury and executioner in their own cause, with no safeguards. They make a mistake and assess you as owing them money then, as long as you have more than £5k in your accounts they can help themselves to the rest. You will then have to sue them to get your money back. It is the most appalling extension of state power over the rights of the citizen, that it is been proposed by a Conservative chancellor says more about the current state of the Conservative party than anything else in the news these days.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    In return for allowing HMRC to raid our bank accounts, maybe we should all receive an OBE??
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    @taffys - So you want to abolish PAYE and institute a system where the taxman has to get a court order against every taxpayer in the land?

    It's a novel approach, but not one which is likely to work too well.

    If you calm down enough to be able to think rationally, can you explain why it is such a disgrace that the taxman should propose to help himself to the money of people who have ignored four demands for payment, but perfectly OK for the taxman to help himself to a cut of the wages of tens of millions of ordinary workers and the pensions of millions of ordinary pensioners?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited May 2014

    @taffys - So you want to abolish PAYE and institute a system where the taxman has to get a court order against every taxpayer in the land?

    It's a novel approach, but not one which is likely to work too well.

    If you calm down enough to be able to think rationally, can you explain why it is such a disgrace that the taxman should propose to help himself to the money of people who have ignored four demands for payment, but perfectly OK for the taxman to help himself to a cut of the wages of tens of millions of ordinary workers and the pensions of millions of ordinary pensioners?

    Richard, when I had my dispute with HMRC a few years ago, they kept on sending correspondence to my old address, despite contacting them several times and giving them my new address.

    It was fortunate I had royal mail mail forwarding in place.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2014
    Good afternoon.
    I see that Boko Haram is starting to change its tune a bit, now that the Israelis are on the job.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Re: the underground motorway. If Boris is serious about doing something about pollution, he should do more to reduce car use. This scheme is total pie in the sky and will never be built.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It is the most appalling extension of state power over the rights of the citizen, that it is been proposed by a Conservative chancellor says more about the current state of the Conservative party than anything else in the news these days.''

    I find it astonishing that supposed conservatives such as RN have so much confidence in a gigantic and aggressive organ of state to deal fairly with the public on this with no check or balance. Astonishing.

    Once HMRC have this power, it is inconceivable to me that it would not be mightily abused. Ordinary people are not tax experts. If the revenue took their money they would not have the means or the knowledge to get it back, something HMRC knows full well.

    But then I consider myself a conservative, always suspicious of the organs of state. Unlike Cameron and Osborne.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    taffys said:

    ''It is the most appalling extension of state power over the rights of the citizen, that it is been proposed by a Conservative chancellor says more about the current state of the Conservative party than anything else in the news these days.''

    I find it astonishing that supposed conservatives such as RN have so much confidence in a gigantic and aggressive organ of state to deal fairly with the public on this with no check or balance. Astonishing.

    Once HMRC have this power, it is inconceivable to me that it would not be mightily abused. Ordinary people are not tax experts. If the revenue took their money they would not have the means or the knowledge to get it back, something HMRC knows full well.

    But then I consider myself a conservative, always suspicious of the organs of state. Unlike Cameron and Osborne.

    Maybe it's just me - but I wouldn't call that 'conservative', but rather 'liberal' in the old fashioned, Gladstone and Mill sense. (I also agree with you fully btw - hence joining the Pirates)
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    taffys said:


    As his decision to let HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens aptly illustrates.

    You really are over-reacting to this rather minor story. How exactly is going for people who, after four warnings, still don't pay the assessed tax 'pro vested interest, pro big business, pro ruling elite europhile'? Those of us who have no choice but to pay our tax on time (actually, in advance) under PAYE, and who pay any assessed or estimated tax on time, are currently subsidising those who game the system. It's hardly 'letting HMRC loose on the bank accounts of private citizens', more clamping down on tax avoidance.

    That's not to say that I approve of the proposals as they stand - some extra safeguards are required, as the excellent Andrew Tyrie has argued. But, really, your reaction is ridiculously over-the-top.
    Anyone who's ever been self-employed will be enraged by this proposal.

    I have HMRC on a recorded line admitting they make up VAT demands to force you to react to them. I have had two separate HMRC offices send me letters in the same week, one demanding £36,000, and another saying they owed me £36,000. In fact, they had reallocated PAYE to the wrong year. Four years after returning to paid employment I am still receiving threats saying I haven't paid my NI as self-employed person.

    HMRC is so incompetent it's borderline unfit for purpose. It is wholly likely that as well as getting much of everything else wrong they will expropriate money on the basis of four baseless demands, on the basis of fewer than four demands, and on the basis of demands they cannot prove were ever received.

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Lennon said:

    "Which does rather beg the question why voters are flirting with political options which may lead to all this progress being thrown away."

    Well, one answer might be because not 1 in a 100 voters understand what GDP means but because our politicians have talking about nothing else for years they assume it is an important measurement of wealth. Therefore if the economy is growing but they are not getting richer it must mean that some other (rich) bugger is getting all the extra pies. The politicians are entirely host on their own petard here. By concentrating exclusively on a measure of growth, which only has a second order relationship to wealth, they have created a false expectation.

    Labour by trying to exploit that false expectation to foster the politics of envy for their own short-term electoral advantage, will if they succeed, not be immune from its effects. If they get in they will need a damn good reason why they don't share the proceeds of growth either.

    That's a very good point - but if any politician tries to suggest some other measure they would no doubt get castigated for 'moving the goalposts' however well meaning they are being. Out of interest - what would your preferred measure be? Private Sector GDP, GDP Ex Deficit, something else entirely?
    Mr. Lennon, I am not sure there can be just one measure to use for meaningful public discourse, furthermore there are fashions in these matters that come and go. However, if people want to argue about wealth and its division then using a measure of economic activity is clearly not going to be helpful.

    Personally, and I am a very old fashioned fellow, I think the most important metric is that of the balance of trade. I think history shows that countries with positive trade balances are progressively wealthier than those with negative balances financed by currency devaluation and debt.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Richard, when I had my dispute with HMRC a few years ago, they kept on sending correspondence to my old address, despite contacting them several times and giving them my new address.

    It was fortunate I had mail forwarding on.

    I've got an even better story - they managed to send me a letter with, attached to it, a very sensitive letter addressed to someone completely different.

    As I said upthread, I agree with Andrew Tyrie that some extra safeguards are needed for this proposal. But let's not get hysterical about it.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    BobaFett said:

    Re: the underground motorway. If Boris is serious about doing something about pollution, he should do more to reduce car use. This scheme is total pie in the sky and will never be built.

    As they say in Field Of Dreams, "if you build it, they will come". More roads means more traffic.

    I expect that this scheme would be achievable. I would prefer to see more investment in other forms of transport.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tax Avoidance..as opposed to Tax Evasion, is perfectly legitimate and everyone is entitled to do it
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I have HMRC on a recorded line admitting they make up VAT demands to force you to react to them.

    Imagine how practices like this would multiply one thousand fold if ordinary people did not have the protection of the courts.

    The default condition would be to send a demand to everybody, whether legitimate or not. This proposal is simply outrageous.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited May 2014

    Richard, when I had my dispute with HMRC a few years ago, they kept on sending correspondence to my old address, despite contacting them several times and giving them my new address.

    It was fortunate I had mail forwarding on.

    I've got an even better story - they managed to send me a letter with, attached to it, a very sensitive letter addressed to someone completely different.

    As I said upthread, I agree with Andrew Tyrie that some extra safeguards are needed for this proposal. But let's not get hysterical about it.
    These are the people who you are happy granting new powers without oversight to raid bank accounts?
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    taffys said:

    I have HMRC on a recorded line admitting they make up VAT demands to force you to react to them.

    Imagine how practices like this would multiply one thousand fold if ordinary people did not have the protection of the courts.

    The default condition would be to send a demand to everybody, whether legitimate or not. This proposal is simply outrageous.</blockquote

    I think the HMCR bank account thing should be limited to Limited company accounts. IT really is scandalous how many ltd companies avoid paying basic taxes like PAYE through going bust.
    With individuals you can always go after assets for unpaid tax but not so easy against ltd companies

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Tax Avoidance..as opposed to Tax Evasion, is perfectly legitimate and everyone is entitled to do it

    Tax Avoidance..as opposed to Tax Evasion, is perfectly legitimate and everyone is entitled to do it

    Letter of the law yes but it's spirit of the law that also matters in Anglo-Saxon jurisprudence.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,452

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    They don't like it up 'em
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    Why are the police campaigning for UKIP?!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    @taffys - So you want to abolish PAYE and institute a system where the taxman has to get a court order against every taxpayer in the land?

    How does PAYE work over there? In Japan it's the employer who administers it and reports to the tax people how much they had to deduct and how much they actually deducted, rather than the tax office snaffling money directly.

    Arguably it would be more efficient for the employer to stay out of it and pay the money into a dedicated bank account, then let the tax people deduct what they think should be deducted and pass the rest onto the employee.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Bercow has granted an Urgent Question on the coalition squabble:

    @HouseofCommons Urgent Question from @TristramHuntMP at 3.30pm on allocation for funding for #freeschool programme. More details to follow.@educationgovuk
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    These are the people who you are happy granting new powers with oversight to raid bank accounts?

    Well, if you want taxes to be collected, you have to give the taxman powers to collect them. Of course there will always be gripes and complaints, but in the real world it is also true that a minority of people don't pay what they should - for example, I know of cases where accountants have been called in to help sort out the affairs of taxpayers and have found drawers full of unopened tax demands and assessments going back years. It's not always a case of evil and incompetent taxman versus upright and honest citizen, is it?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Neil said:

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    Why are the police campaigning for UKIP?!
    Police state!
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    The big question is not a UKIPer's touchiness but why the police got involved if they knew no law was broken?
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    edited May 2014

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    Not only that, what are the police doing? OK they should investigate a complaint but if he has "not committed any crimes" then surely they should butt out.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2014

    How does PAYE work over there? In Japan it's the employer who administers it and reports to the tax people how much they had to deduct and how much they actually deducted, rather than the tax office snaffling money directly. .

    Yes, it's much the same here, but the effect is the same as snaffling it directly: the taxman issues a code saying how much should be snaffled (no court orders involved there) and it's gone before you see it.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited May 2014
    FF.. If a tax law has not been broken then tax avoidance is perfectly legit..no matter what anyone else says or thinks..or do we now make up laws on the run?.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    Why are the police campaigning for UKIP?!
    Police state!
    It's utterly bizarre.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    BobaFett said:

    the underground motorway....is total pie in the sky

    And the Award for 'Mixed Metaphor of the Day' goes to.....

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    Continuing my quest to book stands/fringe events, I've got to UKIP. Last year I was put through to the CEO (!) who said crisply that he had no idea how to book a stand and didn't know who would (!) He resigned shortly afterwards and eventually I sorted it out. This year I got a perfectly nice lady who said she didn't know when the conference was, let alone how to book a stand. I can't see anything about it on their website. The same applies to the SNP. The Greens have a narrow timeslot - you CANNOT book before June 16 and you MUST book by July 15.

    Why are parties making it so hard to give them money? Labour and the Tories were straightforward enough, but everyone else seems to feel their conference is something to get round to sometime...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No surprise - the nationalist "wave a magic wand" parties are the most sensitive out there.

    Ukip bubble is deflating.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Richard, when I had my dispute with HMRC a few years ago, they kept on sending correspondence to my old address, despite contacting them several times and giving them my new address.

    It was fortunate I had mail forwarding on.

    I've got an even better story - they managed to send me a letter with, attached to it, a very sensitive letter addressed to someone completely different.

    As I said upthread, I agree with Andrew Tyrie that some extra safeguards are needed for this proposal. But let's not get hysterical about it.
    I quite agree, Mr. Nabavi, we should not get hysterical about these proposals. HMG should just quietly drop them.

    The courts exist to protect us from an arbitrary executive, for a Conservative Chancellor to try an circumvent that protection is a fecking disgrace and just proves that neither Cameron or Osborn have a principled bone in their bodies. Even Brown didn't try to cleave to himself the right to seize private property.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    What a bunch of illiberal, jessies UKIP are

    Police ask blogger to remove legitimate tweet about Ukip

    Concerns raised about stifling of political debate after police visit man following complaint from Ukip councillor over policy tweet

    Police have asked a blogger to remove a tweet which fact-checked Ukip policies but did not break any laws after receiving a complaint from a Ukip councillor, prompting concern over attempts to stifle debate.

    Michael Abberton was visited by two Cambridgeshire police officers on Saturday. He was told he had not committed any crimes and no action was taken against him, but he was asked to delete some of his tweets, particularly a tongue-in-cheek one on 10 reasons to vote for Ukip, such as scrapping paid maternity leave and raising income tax for the poorest 88% of Britons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip?CMP=twt_gu

    Why are the police campaigning for UKIP?!
    Police state!
    It's utterly bizarre.
    At least they didn't go all Damian Green on him.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Usual rubbish from Scott , only able to promote lies and London propaganda.

    These are the official figures submitted by the YeSNP.

    Why do you think they are lying to you?
    Scott , Obviously you are unable to read the figures.
    I know you have difficulty working out which is bigger of 8% and 92%.....how about 11,000 and 17,400?

    How about 5 million versus 65 million. Comparing apples with oranges is a favoured unionist ploy.
    I am comparing 'small donor numbers' with 'small donor numbers' - what are you comparing?

    You are selectively ignoring that YES only take money from people with a vote, NO take from anybody , ie at minimum the whole of the UK.
    I could easily add the crowdfunding by YES campaigners and make the YES numbers huge, but unlike unionists we do not falsify or use numbers out of context.
    If you are as stupid as Scott and want to gloat over numbers you know are only a part of the picture and, go ahead.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    BobaFett said:

    Re: the underground motorway. If Boris is serious about doing something about pollution, he should do more to reduce car use. This scheme is total pie in the sky and will never be built.

    Do you have any links to this proposal please?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,452

    How does PAYE work over there? In Japan it's the employer who administers it and reports to the tax people how much they had to deduct and how much they actually deducted, rather than the tax office snaffling money directly. .

    Yes, it's much the same here, but the effect is the same as snaffling it directly: the taxman issues a code saying how much should be snaffled (no court orders involved there) and it's gone before you see it.
    Which is why Council Tax is disliked because it is something you have to physically pay. If PAYE were abolished and everyone had to write HMRC a cheque at the end of the year pressure for tax cuts would grow significantly.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736

    These are the people who you are happy granting new powers with oversight to raid bank accounts?

    Well, if you want taxes to be collected, you have to give the taxman powers to collect them. Of course there will always be gripes and complaints, but in the real world it is also true that a minority of people don't pay what they should - for example, I know of cases where accountants have been called in to help sort out the affairs of taxpayers and have found drawers full of unopened tax demands and assessments going back years. It's not always a case of evil and incompetent taxman versus upright and honest citizen, is it?
    Indeed - but why should the taxman not have to go through the same process as anyone else (ie a small business) that is owed money by someone (ie prove the case to the satisfaction of a court at which the person can defend themselves if they choose to do so)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    If you look at the crowdfunding by YES groups they are miles ahead of Better Together.

    Very true.
    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500 in less than 24 hrs. I'm sure James (if he wasn't banned) would like to thank all the PBers who still peruse his site for their no doubt substantial donations.
    LOL, it was achieved very quickly. Given the Sunday Mail voodoo poll yesterday it needs someone to be analysing the polls. What is the betting we never see the detail behind their supposed "Demographics".
    I don't think Progressive Scotland have ever published detailed methodology. Despite Bettertogether & associated numpties trying to promote it as another Yougov poll, Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report says not.

    'Anthony Wells

    Barbazenzero – I couldn’t find it on their site either, but it’s generally safe to trust John Curtice.

    Progressive Polling polls are NOT YouGov polls. In the past I think YouGov have done some of their fieldwork, but that doesn’t mean they are weighted the same way as YG polls so you should compare them to the last PP poll, not to YG polls (as far as I’m aware this last one was nothing at all to do with YG and had fieldwork done elsewhere, but I couldn’t vouch for that 100%, it may be something done without my knowledge).'
    Ah, so now you're dismissing yesterday's poll as a "Voodoo Poll" as it was done by the non-BPC registered "Progressive Scottish Opinion".

    Right?

    Would that be the same "Progressive Scottish Opinion" which conducted a Holyrood Poll in 2011, which correctly predicted the SNP victory, and which was rapturously greeted by Nicola Sturgeon herself?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/27084/terms.html

    Eesh. These *voodoo pollsters*. Can't trust 'em.
    If you're going to put quotes round "Voodoo Poll", you should probably be replying to the poster that used the term, or else you look a bit silly.

    Anthony Wells of Yougov:

    'you should compare them to the last PP poll, not to YG polls'

    So that's a 6pt swing to Yes then?



    TUD, why let the truth get in the way of your false statements.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    BobaFett said:

    Re: the underground motorway. If Boris is serious about doing something about pollution, he should do more to reduce car use. This scheme is total pie in the sky and will never be built.

    Do you have any links to this proposal please?
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/mayor-sets-out-plan-for-22mile-ringroad-tunnel-under-london-9354896.html
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Usual rubbish from Scott , only able to promote lies and London propaganda.

    These are the official figures submitted by the YeSNP.

    Why do you think they are lying to you?
    Scott , Obviously you are unable to read the figures.
    I know you have difficulty working out which is bigger of 8% and 92%.....how about 11,000 and 17,400?

    How about 5 million versus 65 million. Comparing apples with oranges is a favoured unionist ploy.
    I am comparing 'small donor numbers' with 'small donor numbers' - what are you comparing?

    You are selectively ignoring that YES only take money from people with a vote, NO take from anybody , ie at minimum the whole of the UK.
    I could easily add the crowdfunding by YES campaigners and make the YES numbers huge, but unlike unionists we do not falsify or use numbers out of context.
    If you are as stupid as Scott and want to gloat over numbers you know are only a part of the picture and, go ahead.
    I am comparing published apples with published apples.

    You are comparing published apples with unpublished oranges.

    Who is stupid?

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    ToryJim said:

    How does PAYE work over there? In Japan it's the employer who administers it and reports to the tax people how much they had to deduct and how much they actually deducted, rather than the tax office snaffling money directly. .

    Yes, it's much the same here, but the effect is the same as snaffling it directly: the taxman issues a code saying how much should be snaffled (no court orders involved there) and it's gone before you see it.
    Which is why Council Tax is disliked because it is something you have to physically pay. If PAYE were abolished and everyone had to write HMRC a cheque at the end of the year pressure for tax cuts would grow significantly.
    This is why the US makes taxes a huge PITA for everybody. That and campaign contributions from companies that make tax preparation software.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    Continuing my quest to book stands/fringe events, I've got to UKIP. Last year I was put through to the CEO (!) who said crisply that he had no idea how to book a stand and didn't know who would (!) He resigned shortly afterwards and eventually I sorted it out. This year I got a perfectly nice lady who said she didn't know when the conference was, let alone how to book a stand. I can't see anything about it on their website. The same applies to the SNP. The Greens have a narrow timeslot - you CANNOT book before June 16 and you MUST book by July 15.

    Why are parties making it so hard to give them money? Labour and the Tories were straightforward enough, but everyone else seems to feel their conference is something to get round to sometime...

    http://www.ukip.org/ukip_to_hold_it_s_biggest_ever_annual_conference_at_doncaster_racecourse
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2014

    The big question is not a UKIPer's touchiness but why the police got involved if they knew no law was broken?

    This is a perfect illustration of where police commissioners can help: they set police priorities, and clearly this is an example of atrocious waste of taxpayers' money as well as illiberal interference in things which are nothing to do with law enforcement. If you're in the area, you can write to the police commissioner, and, when it comes to the next election, remember about this kind of nonsense when casting your vote.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:


    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500

    So crowd sourcing raised 0.1% of the funding compared to a single Lottery win donation.

    Wow, that really does refute the claim in the article that the Lottery winners are funding 80% of the campaign.

    Oh, wait...

    I know maths is not a strong point for the YeSNP
    In what sense is it supposed to be a refutation of your tedious regurgitations?
    As it happens crowdfunding has raised over £300k for Yes causes. What's the total for No?

    Sorry to give you language and maths lessons this early in the morning.

    Going to clarify your "war criminals" comment? Wouldn't want to get OGH into trouble.....

    Ok, for clarity, Bettertogether's SECOND largest donor (formerly largest) is an employer of war criminals and sanction buster.

    You missed a bit:

    Ms Baillie also pointed out that Mr Taylor had made important investments in the Harris tweed industry on the Western Isles, a constituency represented at Holyrood and Westminster by the SNP.

    "Is the first minister equally suggesting that Mr Taylor should disinvest from Harris tweed?" she said. "I don't think he's said that today."

    Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie also defended the use of Mr Taylor's money.

    He said: "If it's good enough for Harris tweed, it should be good enough for Better Together."

    It would be very interesting to know how much of the NO money was actually raised in Scotland
    Well, we know 80% of the YES money came from the Euro lottery - so how much of that was raised in Scotland?

    LIAR. Not a penny came from there.
    AFAIK all the Weir's money came from the Euro Millions win......

    As you well know you are just smearing and have no clue to their financial position before or after their lottery win. It could be savings or even interest , neither of which are from EURO Millions directly.
    Your pathetic position shows how mean and petty unionists are.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:


    I believe a site which we cannot name has just passed its Indiegogo funding target of £2500

    So crowd sourcing raised 0.1% of the funding compared to a single Lottery win donation.

    Wow, that really does refute the claim in the article that the Lottery winners are funding 80% of the campaign.

    Oh, wait...

    I know maths is not a strong point for the YeSNP
    In what sense is it supposed to be a refutation of your tedious regurgitations?
    As it happens crowdfunding has raised over £300k for Yes causes. What's the total for No?

    Sorry to give you language and maths lessons this early in the morning.

    Going to clarify your "war criminals" comment? Wouldn't want to get OGH into trouble.....

    Ok, for clarity, Bettertogether's SECOND largest donor (formerly largest) is an employer of war criminals and sanction buster.

    You missed a bit:

    Ms Baillie also pointed out that Mr Taylor had made important investments in the Harris tweed industry on the Western Isles, a constituency represented at Holyrood and Westminster by the SNP.

    "Is the first minister equally suggesting that Mr Taylor should disinvest from Harris tweed?" she said. "I don't think he's said that today."

    Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie also defended the use of Mr Taylor's money.

    He said: "If it's good enough for Harris tweed, it should be good enough for Better Together."

    It would be very interesting to know how much of the NO money was actually raised in Scotland
    Well, we know 80% of the YES money came from the Euro lottery - so how much of that was raised in Scotland?

    LIAR. Not a penny came from there.
    AFAIK all the Weir's money came from the Euro Millions win......

    As you well know you are just smearing and have no clue to their financial position before or after their lottery win. It could be savings or even interest , neither of which are from EURO Millions directly.
    Your pathetic position shows how mean and petty unionists are.
    You are seriously arguing that the £2.5 million came from their pre-Euro Millions money?

    Okaaayyyyy......

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @TSE

    Clearly a ridiculous case. But this sort of thing wouldn't have happened if people had listened to us genuine liberals over the years. For years, the Guardian has been at the forefront of cheering on the police arresting people for tweeting political views they disagree with. If they've now accepted they were wrong about this, then I will welcome them to the club, but if they still try to have it both ways they're incredibly hypocritical.

    Speech is speech is speech. Unless you're harassing someone or encouraging others to commit a violent crime, then it should be just accepted as such.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,452

    ToryJim said:

    How does PAYE work over there? In Japan it's the employer who administers it and reports to the tax people how much they had to deduct and how much they actually deducted, rather than the tax office snaffling money directly. .

    Yes, it's much the same here, but the effect is the same as snaffling it directly: the taxman issues a code saying how much should be snaffled (no court orders involved there) and it's gone before you see it.
    Which is why Council Tax is disliked because it is something you have to physically pay. If PAYE were abolished and everyone had to write HMRC a cheque at the end of the year pressure for tax cuts would grow significantly.
    This is why the US makes taxes a huge PITA for everybody. That and campaign contributions from companies that make tax preparation software.
    Indeed, the trouble with PAYE though is that most people don't get angry about it because it is so below their radar.
This discussion has been closed.