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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

Whilst there can be greater variation in individual polls the aggregate helps us see the bigger picture and here, as the chart shows, the LAB shares have been edging downwards.

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

First!

If reducing, stalling or reversing the drift of LD>LAB was the intention, then last night's PPB cannot have helped.

It showed one thing: despite the protestations of their supporters, the current Labour party is the real nasty party ...

Stuart_Dickson

Due to the almost total lack of published full-sample surveys of Westminster voting intention, people interested in Scottish politics have had to satisfy themselves with:

a) the two big Lord Ashcroft Scottish polls last year, which are becoming ridiculously out of date
b) the monthly YouGov aggregates, with their fatally-flawed weightings
c) sub-samples of GB-wide polls, with their tiny sample sizes and lack of weightings

An unsatisfactory situation all round. The political parties are of course measuring Scottish Westminster VI constantly, but we ordinary folks very rarely get a glimpse.

Then, last month, a cheer went up! Populus joined YouGov in publishing monthly aggregates (for the Financial Times). Now we could see just how silly those YouGov weightings really were.

Here is today's bang up-to-date Populus aggregate. The Scottish sub-sample size is 1,589

(+/- change on last month's Populus aggregate)

SNP 34% (n/c)
Lab 32% (-2)
Con 19% (+1)
LD 7% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)
Grn 3% (+1)

http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_April_2014.pdf

(The headline, published VI figures are at Table 4, Page 36)

Easterross

Morning all and one thing is for sure, if last night's Labour PPB goes viral on YouTube, they wont hold on to the switchers who were LibDems for long. Like many others I don't believe many of them are LibDem to Labour switchers. They are 2005 Labour voters who loaned their votes to the LibDems in 2010. Either way, this time next year we will be celebrating the start of 5 more years of Tory/Tory led government and Ed will be going off to play with his Rubik's cube. Stella for Labour leader thereafter if Labour has any sense but since it doesn't, they will probably go for someone like pretty boy Chuka.

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

Due to the almost total lack of published full-sample surveys of Westminster voting intention, people interested in Scottish politics have had to satisfy themselves with:

a) the two big Lord Ashcroft Scottish polls last year, which are becoming ridiculously out of date
b) the monthly YouGov aggregates, with their fatally-flawed weightings
c) sub-samples of GB-wide polls, with their tiny sample sizes and lack of weightings

An unsatisfactory situation all round. The political parties are of course measuring Scottish Westminster VI constantly, but we ordinary folks very rarely get a glimpse.

Then, last month, a cheer went up! Populus joined YouGov in publishing monthly aggregates (for the Financial Times). Now we could see just how silly those YouGov weightings really were.

Here is today's bang up-to-date Populus aggregate. The Scottish sub-sample size is 1,589

(+/- change on last month's Populus aggregate)

SNP 34% (n/c)
Lab 32% (-2)
Con 19% (+1)
LD 7% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)
Grn 3% (+1)

http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_April_2014.pdf

(The headline, published VI figures are at Table 4, Page 36)

The sample size is better and the numbers look vaguely credible but is this not just a very large sub sample with no attempt at proper weighting? The lack of proper data in Scotland is indeed frustrating.

AlastairMeeks

This may not be good news for the Conservatives if these voters are reverting to the Lib Dems in Conservative/Lib Dem marginals rather than Conservative/Labour marginals. That's not particularly unlikely.

AlastairMeeks

Off topic, my latest post is up, this time on Yorkshire and the Humber:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/telling-yorkshiremen-yorkshire-and.html

DavidL

There is not a lot of evidence that these votes are reverting to the Lib Dems themselves though. Their vote share is static.

ToryJim

One thing is clear the last thing Labour needs at this stage of the game is infighting. So stories like this will be distinctly unhelpful.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622911/Were-risk-wipeout-South-Ed-Miliband-warned-Labour-accused-waging-class-war-TV-broadcast.html

Financier

YouGov: 34/37/8/13(yesterday:34/35/9/14)

2010 splits
Conservatives
Today: Cons:77;LAB:4; LD:2;UKIP:16; GN:2
Yes'dy:Cons:74; LAB:4; LD:2;UKIP:18; GN:1
Labour:
Today: Cons:6;LAB;83;LD:1;UKIP:7;GN:2
Yes'dy:Cons:7;LAB:80;LD:1;UKIP:9;GN:1
LibDem
Today:Cons:17;LAB:26;LD:32;UKIP:14;GN:7
Yes'dy:Cons:16;LAB:29;LD:34;UKIP:12;GN:5

Easterross

Antifrank, just caught up on yesterday's piece and todays. Both are very readable thanks. Just wish I understood bets and betting.

david_herdson

The flip-side of the loss of Labour's crutch, as Mike accurately puts it, is that Labour's also losing no small part of its own 2010 voters. Now, it's true that the Tories have lost a greater proportion (24% vs 14%) but then the Tories had quite a few swing voters on their side in 2010 whereas Labour were thought to be somewhere near rock-bottom. Clearly not.

Of their 2010 voters, 4% are now Con (vs 5% the other way, so near enough zero net movement), 2% are Lib Dem (so they're still heavily up there), 1% SNP, but fully 6% to UKIP, worth around 2% off their overall score.

Miliband might still make it to No 10 but the weakness of his and his party's support is abundantly clear in poll after poll and while the prospect of a collapse in Labour's voting after an election win is almost assured, the possibility of one before the election is very much there.

In fact, Labour almost certainly know this, hence the extremely defensive PEB. What was telling to me was that Labour was not promoting themselves, not hitting the insurgent UKIP, only hitting the Tories indirectly, but were majoring on the Lib Dems, from whom they've already taken as much as was likely: the PEB was all about keeping them (and only them) onside. Conclusion: they're more worried about the LD-Lab switchers moving off than anything else. And as Mike has rightly pointed out, they have reason to be.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Due to the almost total lack of published full-sample surveys of Westminster voting intention, people interested in Scottish politics have had to satisfy themselves with:

a) the two big Lord Ashcroft Scottish polls last year, which are becoming ridiculously out of date
b) the monthly YouGov aggregates, with their fatally-flawed weightings
c) sub-samples of GB-wide polls, with their tiny sample sizes and lack of weightings

An unsatisfactory situation all round. The political parties are of course measuring Scottish Westminster VI constantly, but we ordinary folks very rarely get a glimpse.

Then, last month, a cheer went up! Populus joined YouGov in publishing monthly aggregates (for the Financial Times). Now we could see just how silly those YouGov weightings really were.

Here is today's bang up-to-date Populus aggregate. The Scottish sub-sample size is 1,589

(+/- change on last month's Populus aggregate)

SNP 34% (n/c)
Lab 32% (-2)
Con 19% (+1)
LD 7% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)
Grn 3% (+1)

http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_April_2014.pdf

(The headline, published VI figures are at Table 4, Page 36)

The sample size is better and the numbers look vaguely credible but is this not just a very large sub sample with no attempt at proper weighting? The lack of proper data in Scotland is indeed frustrating.

Beggars cannot be choosers David. The Herald and the Scotsman are not just skint, they are pretty much bankrupt. We will not be seeing anything useful from them for a long time. Post independence I suspect.

Your criticism is of course valid, but what the hell else have we got to go on???

The full-sample, properly weighted Lord Ascroft polls were last year. Prior to that the last proper Scottish Westminster VI poll was a YouGov in May 2012 (!!) -> Lab 40%, SNP 35%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 2%.

Here are the Ashcroft polls:

CON 18%, LAB 40%, LIBDEM 6%, SNP 31%, UKIP 2% (1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013.)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8320

In addition, he conducted a huge 10,000 sample (!!) Westminster VI poll back in the springtime:

CON 16%, LAB 45%, LIBDEM 8%, SNP 23%, UKIP 5% (10,007 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone and online between 22 Feb and 9 May 2013.)

Those Westminster Voting Intention findings are presented on Page 29 of this report:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Camerons-Caledonian-Conundrum.pdf

Lots of other info and links here:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/10/camerons-caledonian-conundrum/

JosiasJessop

Will Labour show any sympathy for these bankers, or are all bankers evil?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

DavidL

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

AlastairMeeks

@Stuart_Dickson there have been three Survation Scottish voting intention polls this year:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table

Easterross

ToryJim said:

One thing is clear the last thing Labour needs at this stage of the game is infighting. So stories like this will be distinctly unhelpful.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622911/Were-risk-wipeout-South-Ed-Miliband-warned-Labour-accused-waging-class-war-TV-broadcast.html

Having read the piece, I wonder if it will be reflected in the new Ashcroft marginal poll. Last night OGH and others seemed to think Michael Ashcroft was telling Dan Hodges that the marginal poll will show Labour still well in the lead where it matters. Will it? Interesting the article above referred to John Denham who only held on in 2010 by his fingernails in a seat Labour has basically held for most of the last 50 years except when the SDP vote split the Labour vote in 1983 and 1987.

ToryJim

JosiasJessop said:

Will Labour show any sympathy for these bankers, or are all bankers evil?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

Most of those jobs won't be bankers in the sense that most people understand but support staff on moderate salary and precious little bonus.

BobaFett

Bad news on the face of it, unless there is some tactical voting going on among Red Liberals in seats Labour cannot win. I guess we shall soon see, from Milord's Mega Poll.

DavidL

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

One thing is clear the last thing Labour needs at this stage of the game is infighting. So stories like this will be distinctly unhelpful.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622911/Were-risk-wipeout-South-Ed-Miliband-warned-Labour-accused-waging-class-war-TV-broadcast.html

Having read the piece, I wonder if it will be reflected in the new Ashcroft marginal poll. Last night OGH and others seemed to think Michael Ashcroft was telling Dan Hodges that the marginal poll will show Labour still well in the lead where it matters. Will it? Interesting the article above referred to John Denham who only held on in 2010 by his fingernails in a seat Labour has basically held for most of the last 50 years except when the SDP vote split the Labour vote in 1983 and 1987.

Given that Lord Ashcroft was good enough to tell Mike that the pollsters were still in the field I don't think he meant anything at all other than it would be a very interesting question. Lord Ashcroft is of the view that marginal polling is far more significant than general polling.

There is a logic to that if you can obtain truly accurate results but so far that has not really been possible. Of course no one has previously tried as hard as Lord Ashcroft is doing at the moment.

anotherDave

Stuart_Dickson said:

Beggars cannot be choosers David. The Herald and the Scotsman are not just skint, they are pretty much bankrupt. We will not be seeing anything useful from them for a long time. Post independence I suspect.

Your criticism is of course valid, but what the hell else have we got to go on???

The full-sample, properly weighted Lord Ascroft polls were last year. Prior to that the last proper Scottish Westminster VI poll was a YouGov in May 2012 (!!) -> Lab 40%, SNP 35%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 2%.

Here are the Ashcroft polls:

CON 18%, LAB 40%, LIBDEM 6%, SNP 31%, UKIP 2% (1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013.)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8320

In addition, he conducted a huge 10,000 sample (!!) Westminster VI poll back in the springtime:

CON 16%, LAB 45%, LIBDEM 8%, SNP 23%, UKIP 5% (10,007 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone and online between 22 Feb and 9 May 2013.)

Those Westminster Voting Intention findings are presented on Page 29 of this report:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Camerons-Caledonian-Conundrum.pdf

Lots of other info and links here:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/10/camerons-caledonian-conundrum/

There have been several Scottish EU Parliament polls. Surely there are Westminster VI questions asked at the same time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls

BobaFett

antifrank said:

This may not be good news for the Conservatives if these voters are reverting to the Lib Dems in Conservative/Lib Dem marginals rather than Conservative/Labour marginals. That's not particularly unlikely.

Apols. I see AF has made the same point down thread.

Good morning everyone.

Casino_Royale

But this can't be true. Nick Palmer is always telling us that Labour's polling support has been stuck at 38-39% for 'simply ages'.

JosiasJessop

Is there any limit to Branson's soiled self-publicity, and the media's capacity to slurp it up?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2622378/After-Virgin-Galactic-Sir-Richard-Branson-wants-develop-supersonic-planes.html

For note: the x-prize for sub-orbital space was won back in October 2004, when the one-man SpaceShip One flew to 112 km altitude. Soon afterwards, Branson announced that they would take passengers in an updated version under the banner "Virgin Galactic". Ten years later, it still has not taken paying passengers, and has killed three engineers in a ground explosion.

In comparison, SpaceX was founded in 2002, has developed its own rocket engines and two launch vehicles, and has a commercial contract to provide supplies to the ISS. Their manned crew cabin is flying as a cargo store.

Branson is fully image over substance.

JosiasJessop

ToryJim said:

JosiasJessop said:

Will Labour show any sympathy for these bankers, or are all bankers evil?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

Most of those jobs won't be bankers in the sense that most people understand but support staff on moderate salary and precious little bonus.

Indeed. Sadly, Labour and their fellow haters seem incapable of making such a distinction. Which is odd, considering several of them worked in finance and banking. But perhaps they didn't associate with the plebs?

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Scott_P

@guardian: Economists warn Scotland over keeping pound if independence goes ahead http://t.co/huO0b6772z

ToryJim

JosiasJessop said:

ToryJim said:

JosiasJessop said:

Will Labour show any sympathy for these bankers, or are all bankers evil?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

Most of those jobs won't be bankers in the sense that most people understand but support staff on moderate salary and precious little bonus.

Indeed. Sadly, Labour and their fellow haters seem incapable of making such a distinction. Which is odd, considering several of them worked in finance and banking. But perhaps they didn't associate with the plebs?

Oh I just think it boils down to the fact that nuance is a harder sell.

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

MarqueeMark

The importance of Denham's point about Labour being nowhere in the south is reinforced by research this week showing the SW of England has some of the worst poverty in the EU. The Cornish, for example, are 36 per cent less well-off than the EU norm. Devon, 20%. They may be "Poorer than Poland", but Labour - the self-appointed champions of the poor - are invisible down here.

SquareRoot

Casino_Royale said:

But this can't be true. Nick Palmer is always telling us that Labour's polling support has been stuck at 38-39% for 'simply ages'.

Mark it down in the file marked "Complacency" the same sort of complacency shown by other of a left leaning persuasion on this site.

Nick Palmer was reduced to dissing the Wisdom Index because he didn't like what it was saying,. don't recall him doing so previously.

Financier

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Please evidence the lying

Charles

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

One thing is clear the last thing Labour needs at this stage of the game is infighting. So stories like this will be distinctly unhelpful.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622911/Were-risk-wipeout-South-Ed-Miliband-warned-Labour-accused-waging-class-war-TV-broadcast.html

Having read the piece, I wonder if it will be reflected in the new Ashcroft marginal poll. Last night OGH and others seemed to think Michael Ashcroft was telling Dan Hodges that the marginal poll will show Labour still well in the lead where it matters. Will it? Interesting the article above referred to John Denham who only held on in 2010 by his fingernails in a seat Labour has basically held for most of the last 50 years except when the SDP vote split the Labour vote in 1983 and 1987.

It was interesting that IOS picked that seat to argue that the Tories didn't have a chance in the marginals!

He's moved from Cornwall to no-man's land...

SquareRoot

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Yeah MalcG, that nasty lot in London who must be lying because they are saying things you don't agree with..

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

@guardian: Economists warn Scotland over keeping pound if independence goes ahead http://t.co/huO0b6772z

LOL, you unionists are good at flogging a dead horse. Same brain again and you would be dangerous. Tip, when you are lying and people know you are lying then repeating it ad nauseum does not make people believe it.

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

Flash is all out of witty comments nowadays , bankrupt like his heroes.

malcolmg

Financier said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Please evidence the lying

LOL, please evidence you are not a bell end.

JosiasJessop

ToryJim said:

JosiasJessop said:

ToryJim said:

JosiasJessop said:

Will Labour show any sympathy for these bankers, or are all bankers evil?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

Most of those jobs won't be bankers in the sense that most people understand but support staff on moderate salary and precious little bonus.

Indeed. Sadly, Labour and their fellow haters seem incapable of making such a distinction. Which is odd, considering several of them worked in finance and banking. But perhaps they didn't associate with the plebs?

Oh I just think it boils down to the fact that nuance is a harder sell.

In the translated words of St. Augustine: hate the sin, love the sinner. Sadly, Labour loved and covet the profits the banks made (and still do), but spreads hatred of the bankers.

Therefore their policy is love the sin, hate the sinner. Even when the 'sinner' is a lowly bank teller.

Pulpstar

I wonder if Barclays enormous amount of redundancies announced will have any political effect.

MarqueeMark

malcolmg said:

LOL, please evidence you are not a bell end.

LOL, please stop giving us evidence you ARE a bell end.....

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. G, that's an uncalled for comment about Mr. Financier. [Edited extra bit: likewise, Mr. Mark. Sticks and stones will break my bones but words (of an insulting nature) will make a thread really tedious].

On the pound: I remain convinced Scotland should not have a currency union with us if they vote to leave. I'm sure there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but I can't see how being lender of last resort and supporting Scotland's finance sector makes sense, when no currency union would save us potentially crippling liabilities *and* bolster our own finance sector.

Of course, I'd imagine the Scots would react by being as unhelpful as possible on Faslane, which would mean that relations between the newly independent Scotland and England, Wales and Northern Ireland would begin with each side making life difficult for the other.

CarlottaVance

David Cameron has insisted he will not resign if Scotland votes for independence despite warnings from senior Tories that a ‘yes’ vote will plunge his premiership into unprecedented crisis.

The Prime Minister has told friends he has ‘no intention’ of quitting if the Scots vote for independence in the referendum he agreed with Alex Salmond.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622868/I-wont-resign-Scots-decide-vows-Cameron-Senior-Tories-fear-yes-vote-plunge-premiership-crisis.html

So that's just un-named "Senior Tories" and miscellaneous hysterics.....

Better Together is cross-party, so this doesn’t arise. He would not resign - definitely not.

In Scotland, Labour is the big, dominant political force. Does Ed Miliband have to resign too if there’s a yes vote? The SNP was elected with a clear majority in the Scottish parliament having said they would hold a referendum.

We either moved ahead with that referendum or we blocked it. Do people really think the Prime Minister could have said to the people of Scotland: 'You may have voted in favour of having a referendum but you can’t have one?'

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/why-cameron-has-said-he-wont-resign-if-scotland-votes-independence

Millsy

Oh dear, what will happen to Labour once their crutch disappears?

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, I quite agree with that.

I wonder if senior Tories include David Davis, perchance...

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

Flash is all out of witty comments nowadays , bankrupt like his heroes.

One wonders how the scotch whisky industry has survived the jackboot of the London gin empire remorselessly stamping down on it's throat ?

Sean_F

Re marginals, the swing to the Conservatives in Lab-Con marginals was about 1% higher than in the country as a whole in 2010. But, that may well just be due to incumbent Labour MPs standing down, and losing their personal vote.

In seats won by the Conservatives in 2005, the swing was also above-average, as the MPs acquired a personal vote.

MonikerDiCanio

Labour, the un-credible shrinking party.

SimonStClare

Morning all.

Re: Labour PPB. - A lot of chat this morning attributing Ed’s new campaign strategist David Axelrod, as the man behind the ‘shrinking man’. – Sounds unlikely to me, but then I’m not familiar with his campaign style when employed by Obama and others. – any theories ?

CarlottaVance

SimonStClare said:

Morning all.

Re: Labour PPB. - A lot of chat this morning attributing Ed’s new campaign strategist David Axelrod, as the man behind the ‘shrinking man’. – Sounds unlikely to me, but then I’m not familiar with his campaign style when employed by Obama and others. – any theories ?

I doubt it - I thought he didn't start working until mid-May?

It strikes me as more the handiwork of someone more interested in fighting old battles with a bit of class war thrown in - Ed Balls?

AndyJS

Surely the question is why aren't Labour picking up any votes from people who voted Conservative in 2010?

CarlottaVance

The positive case for independence:

The more Tory prospects improve in England (and Wales) so the prospect of a Tory government in Westminster will be used to send Scots scurrying for the comforts of independence. It’s all part of the positive case for independence, don’t you know?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/rising-tory-hidden-danger-david-cameron-is-doing-too-much-too-well/

Blue_rog

Millsy said:

Oh dear, what will happen to Labour once their crutch disappears?

They will become emasculated, oops sorry that's crotch, not crutch.

[Deleted User]

The fate of the GE clearly hangs on two threads:

1. How much of the 2010 LD vote Labour can keep;and
2. How much of the 2010 Con vote UKIP can lure away.

Point 1 is all Labour have. Their own 2010 vote shows a small leaking away and they are policy/talent/vision/competence vacuum right now. Miliband is desperate to keep the lefty ex-yellows in his camp – and while we may deride the truly abysmal PEB, it was precisely targeted at such people. A low 30s result would see him lose the popular vote but get more seats than Dave – especially if point 2 keeps Dave in the low 30s also.

Received wisdom and my own previous view was that the Con/Lab split will be very even in the mid 30s. It seems more likely now to me that Labour will score low 30s and Dave mid to high 30s, giving him a solid popular vote win but a hung parliament overall with close MP counts between Con/Lab. I’ll leave it to those with more constitutional expertise than me to say what happens if either Lab/Lib or Con/Lib coalitions are mathematically possible, but I’m guessing the current coalition carries on. (???)

dyedwoolie

AndyJS said:

Surely the question is why aren't Labour picking up any votes from people who voted Conservative in 2010?

Cos they're still toxic and blamed for the recession. It's inly the die hards and some bleeding heart SDPers that are propping them up

dyedwoolie

Labours PPB, I smell the work of noted leftist propaganda expert Dr Ventmore Spleen and his psephologist sidekick Edgood Torybad.
Either them, or Balls and the missus dreamed it up over a late night cocoa

TGOHF

dyedwoolie said:

Labours PPB, I smell the work of noted leftist propaganda expert Dr Ventmore Spleen and his psephologist sidekick Edgood Torybad.
Either them, or Balls and the missus dreamed it up over a late night cocoa

There is a whiff of an inner circle with fingers in their ears...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Woolie, are you suggesting the PPB was pure Balls?

MarqueeMark

What strikes me as odd about Labour's PPB of yesterday is that it appears to have given up on offering a reason for the "reluctant lefties" - those who didn't bother to come out and vote for Brown in 2010 - to bother to come out to vote for Labour in 2015.

dyedwoolie

TGOHF said:

dyedwoolie said:

Labours PPB, I smell the work of noted leftist propaganda expert Dr Ventmore Spleen and his psephologist sidekick Edgood Torybad.
Either them, or Balls and the missus dreamed it up over a late night cocoa

There is a whiff of an inner circle with fingers in their ears...

It's McBrides first attempt at light humour. They had to cut the bit he put in with Clegg strangling three disabled horses

MarqueeMark

Mr Dancer - duly chastened.....

dyedwoolie

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, are you suggesting the PPB was pure Balls?

Utter Balls even

CarlottaVance

It's probably too soon for Alexrod - but the PPB might have been these guys:

http://www.bluestatedigital.com/news/entry/a-year-with-the-labour-party

CarlottaVance

Observers were also surprised that Labour should concentrate on the Liberal Democrats, who are trailing a poor fourth place in opinion polls. Labour will have an ad van out tomorrow and has prepared campaigning material for distribution, also attacking the Lib Dems. Its strategists say the broadcast is aimed at a mainly young audience, angry about tuition fees, who have abandoned the Lib Dems but have not decided whether to vote at all or who to vote for.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-election-campaign-ed-miliband-authorises-the-uncredible-shrinking-man-pastiche-targeting-nick-clegg-9334625.html

TGOHF

Halifax house prices down -0.2% in April..

JosiasJessop

TGOHF said:

Halifax house prices down -0.2% in April..

BUBBLE!

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, what's Labour's policy on tuition fees?

ToryJim

CarlottaVance said:

Observers were also surprised that Labour should concentrate on the Liberal Democrats, who are trailing a poor fourth place in opinion polls. Labour will have an ad van out tomorrow and has prepared campaigning material for distribution, also attacking the Lib Dems. Its strategists say the broadcast is aimed at a mainly young audience, angry about tuition fees, who have abandoned the Lib Dems but have not decided whether to vote at all or who to vote for.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-election-campaign-ed-miliband-authorises-the-uncredible-shrinking-man-pastiche-targeting-nick-clegg-9334625.html

Aimed at young people, what all the ones that hopped in their time machine from the 1950s?!?

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Its strategists say the broadcast is aimed at a mainly young audience, angry about tuition fees, who have abandoned the Lib Dems but have not decided whether to vote at all or who to vote for.

If I were a senior donor to the LibDems, say, I would be telling them:

(1) get rid of Clegg after the Euros.

(2) have the new party leader tell Osborne that he has to spend some of his election-bribes war chest on bribing the students who got shafted by student fees. Say, offering to pay the first five grand of student loan repayments as they would have fallen due. And scream all through the election that it was the LibDem's what done it....

CarlottaVance

I think the Lib Dem riposte is better:

http://youtu.be/u7ax683aI-U

MarqueeMark

TGOHF said:

Halifax house prices down -0.2% in April..

Probably just means a deal for an oligarch to buy a garage in Chelsea fell through....

SimonStClare

CarlottaVance said:

SimonStClare said:

Morning all.

Re: Labour PPB. - A lot of chat this morning attributing Ed’s new campaign strategist David Axelrod, as the man behind the ‘shrinking man’. – Sounds unlikely to me, but then I’m not familiar with his campaign style when employed by Obama and others. – any theories ?

I doubt it - I thought he didn't start working until mid-May?

Good point well made madam. - IMHO, Ed Balls may enjoy the class hatred stuff, but is too long in the tooth to be behind it, it reeked of young, 'new-age' Ben Elton types ; )

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, why would Osborne listen to the new Lib Dem leader?

Axing Clegg might be an idea... when is it that the new EU commissioner is chosen? I maintain Cameron shouldn't give Clegg such an easy way out, but he might.

malcolmg

MarqueeMark said:

malcolmg said:

LOL, please evidence you are not a bell end.

LOL, please stop giving us evidence you ARE a bell end.....

LOL, back under your rock loser

ToryJim

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, why would Osborne listen to the new Lib Dem leader?

Axing Clegg might be an idea... when is it that the new EU commissioner is chosen? I maintain Cameron shouldn't give Clegg such an easy way out, but he might.

Cameron won't put the europhile Clegg into Europe he'd face a mutiny at the 1922

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Vance, what's Labour's policy on tuition fees?

That's a trick question, isn't it?

Fund them through the Banker's bonus tax?

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

Flash is all out of witty comments nowadays , bankrupt like his heroes.

One wonders how the scotch whisky industry has survived the jackboot of the London gin empire remorselessly stamping down on it's throat ?

Quality dear boy

ToryJim

On the infamous PEB the name of the cat is Socks, why? There are two cats in Downing St, Larry and Freya if memory serves. Socks was the name of Bill Clintons cat though.

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, why would Osborne listen to the new Lib Dem leader?

Because the new LibDem leader will not be so wedded to the Coalition? Threatening to end it early might even be part of the pitch he made to get elected?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, what is the evidence there will be a currency union post-Yes?

Miss Vance, the bankers' bonus tax is Labour's quantum policy: it's simultaneously used to fund multiple commitments, until the policy is observed, at which point it can only fund one.

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

Flash is all out of witty comments nowadays , bankrupt like his heroes.

One wonders how the scotch whisky industry has survived the jackboot of the London gin empire remorselessly stamping down on it's throat ?

Quality dear boy

Been rumbled malc ? Still its better than your endless posts running down Scotland, trying to invent a mentality that us Jocks can't thrive.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, the blues might welcome an early election. They and the Lib Dems get 'differentiation' and there's no awkward six months of waiting for the divorce to finalise. It could also catch Labour on the hop.

BobaFett

Lots of comment on the PPB! Just a bit of fun really, appealing to a disengaged leftie youth. It was mildly amusing in parts - think people are taking it a tad to seriously really. Anyone remember the Tories' Magic Ed skit? It's all fair game.

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, still need just 1 more player for the PB 2014 Mk3 Diplomacy game. Password is catsandkittens.

CarlottaVance

British jobs for British workers!

The Labour PPB director is a "Labour voter" resident in Los Angeles:

http://riccantor.com/bio/

BobaFett

Can someone separate Mark and Malc and give them a lollipop if they promise to be civil?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fett, I believe there was unanimity that the Magic Ed PPB (featuring Crystal Balls) was rubbish.

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, what is the evidence there will be a currency union post-Yes?

Miss Vance, the bankers' bonus tax is Labour's quantum policy: it's simultaneously used to fund multiple commitments, until the policy is observed, at which point it can only fund one.

MD, there is no evidence or in fact any guarantee that there will be a currency union. Most people do not really care. It is what the SNP have as their favoured option and will be part of the negotiations but is only one of many options on currency. Only thing you could say is that it will be in the interests of both parties to ensure a smooth progress to our new situations. I imagine their will be some turbulence when the shock of the YES vote registers and cool heads will be required on both sides. Reality will kick in and it will be all hands to the pumps on both teams. It will be in no-one's interests for either side to be beggared and thus I expect that things will change little at first and necessity will ensure that everything is handled maturely and with good grace.
Therefore whilst one can never guarantee I do believe there will be a currency union even though my preference would be to NOT have one. Despite all the rhetoric on here it will be politicians based on stark necessities that will decide, the public will not come into it , at least until the next GE.

SimonStClare

BobaFett said:

Lots of comment on the PPB! Just a bit of fun really, appealing to a disengaged leftie youth. It was mildly amusing in parts - think people are taking it a tad to seriously really. Anyone remember the Tories' Magic Ed skit? It's all fair game.

It was not ‘fun’ it was nasty - I’m sure Labour stalwarts would have loved it, as for the rest of the country and swing voters specifically it rather exposes the fact that Miliband has nothing positive to offer the UK other than playground insults and class hatred.

malcolmg

BobaFett said:

Can someone separate Mark and Malc and give them a lollipop if they promise to be civil?

Bob, have no worries , I will refrain from replying to any further posts the abject loser posts. Typical Lib Dem.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, I concur a smooth transition would benefit both sides. I do think, though, that for electoral as well as economic reasons a currency union is unlikely. The next General Election will be less than a year after the vote, after all.

BobaFett

SimonStClare said:

BobaFett said:

Lots of comment on the PPB! Just a bit of fun really, appealing to a disengaged leftie youth. It was mildly amusing in parts - think people are taking it a tad to seriously really. Anyone remember the Tories' Magic Ed skit? It's all fair game.

It was not ‘fun’ it was nasty - I’m sure Labour stalwarts would have loved it, as for the rest of the country and swing voters specifically it rather exposes the fact that Miliband has nothing positive to offer the UK other than playground insults and class hatred.

It wasn't nasty - it was merely satire. Lighten up a bit, Labour gets worse thrown on them every day on here, and elsewhere.

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Thanks Stuart. Dare I suggest that the lack of a viable media in Scotland capable of surviving in such a small pool and holding a rather authoritarian executive to account is yet another reason to vote no?

Everything about politics, indeed I find increasingly everything about Scottish life seems to be revolving around the vote in September. Voting intention will mean very little until that is determined.

Quite the opposite , a hostile oppressive lying London Media and a pathetic Westminster government mean it is imperative that everyone votes YES to save Scotland in September. YES for democracy.

Ah the blame game and buck passing never stops. Natland - where a big boy did it and ran away.

Flash is all out of witty comments nowadays , bankrupt like his heroes.

One wonders how the scotch whisky industry has survived the jackboot of the London gin empire remorselessly stamping down on it's throat ?

Quality dear boy

Been rumbled malc ? Still its better than your endless posts running down Scotland, trying to invent a mentality that us Jocks can't thrive.

LOL, you really are deluded Flash. Looking forward to the possibility that the ex Rangers will one day meet the real Rangers in the junior cup.

AndyJS

O/T:

"09:00 In Our Time: Melvyn Bragg and his guests discuss the Second Sino-Japanese War. bbc.in/1iZLl3E"

https://mobile.twitter.com/onradio4now

Stuart_Dickson

anotherDave said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Beggars cannot be choosers David. The Herald and the Scotsman are not just skint, they are pretty much bankrupt. We will not be seeing anything useful from them for a long time. Post independence I suspect.

Your criticism is of course valid, but what the hell else have we got to go on???

The full-sample, properly weighted Lord Ascroft polls were last year. Prior to that the last proper Scottish Westminster VI poll was a YouGov in May 2012 (!!) -> Lab 40%, SNP 35%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 2%.

Here are the Ashcroft polls:

CON 18%, LAB 40%, LIBDEM 6%, SNP 31%, UKIP 2% (1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013.)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8320

In addition, he conducted a huge 10,000 sample (!!) Westminster VI poll back in the springtime:

CON 16%, LAB 45%, LIBDEM 8%, SNP 23%, UKIP 5% (10,007 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone and online between 22 Feb and 9 May 2013.)

Those Westminster Voting Intention findings are presented on Page 29 of this report:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Camerons-Caledonian-Conundrum.pdf

Lots of other info and links here:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/10/camerons-caledonian-conundrum/

There have been several Scottish EU Parliament polls. Surely there are Westminster VI questions asked at the same time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls

Nope. Not as far as I'm aware. But I'd be absolutely delighted if you could provide links that prove me wrong!

volcanopete

Labour PPB still being discussed widely in the media,which suggests it's getting to the target group who also believe that Tories are malignant,upper-class oicks and that if you Vote LibDem,Get a Tory.

SimonStClare

BobaFett said:

SimonStClare said:

BobaFett said:

Lots of comment on the PPB! Just a bit of fun really, appealing to a disengaged leftie youth. It was mildly amusing in parts - think people are taking it a tad to seriously really. Anyone remember the Tories' Magic Ed skit? It's all fair game.

It was not ‘fun’ it was nasty - I’m sure Labour stalwarts would have loved it, as for the rest of the country and swing voters specifically it rather exposes the fact that Miliband has nothing positive to offer the UK other than playground insults and class hatred.

It wasn't nasty - it was merely satire. Lighten up a bit, Labour gets worse thrown on them every day on here, and elsewhere.

It was negative campaigning of the worst sort and nasty. – are you honestly comparing bickering on a blog site with a national TV broadcast..! - facepalm.

Stuart_Dickson

antifrank said:

@Stuart_Dickson there have been three Survation Scottish voting intention polls this year:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-a-uk-general-election#table

Terrific!! Thanks. Those polls are missing from every website I looked at, so that link will be bookmarked.

NickPalmer

SimonStClare said:

BobaFett said:

Lots of comment on the PPB! Just a bit of fun really, appealing to a disengaged leftie youth. It was mildly amusing in parts - think people are taking it a tad to seriously really. Anyone remember the Tories' Magic Ed skit? It's all fair game.

It was not ‘fun’ it was nasty - I’m sure Labour stalwarts would have loved it, as for the rest of the country and swing voters specifically it rather exposes the fact that Miliband has nothing positive to offer the UK other than playground insults and class hatred.

No, it divided roundheads like me (who basically dislike using PEBs for humour and attacks instead of serious argument) from cavaliers (who like rumbustious satire). It had warm coverage from the basically pro-Coalition Evening Standard and several non-Labour people here quite liked it. But DavidL was probably the most accurate when he said that it will have zero effect on voting intention, like nearly all PEBs.

SquareRoot said:

Casino_Royale said:

But this can't be true. Nick Palmer is always telling us that Labour's polling support has been stuck at 38-39% for 'simply ages'.

Mark it down in the file marked "Complacency" the same sort of complacency shown by other of a left leaning persuasion on this site.

Nick Palmer was reduced to dissing the Wisdom Index because he didn't like what it was saying,. don't recall him doing so previously.

I've rubbished it ever since it was introduced. As a study of what people think is happening, it's interesting. As a predictive tool, it's a bit of silliness which trades purely on the fact that it once got the result right: what it does is pool anecedotal impressions and translate them into precise numbers. I'd say the same if it showed Labour 20 points ahead.

But the Labour lead is clearly lower than it was - apart from the Red Liberal drift, UKIP is nibbling at some of the traditional C2DE Labour vote.

OblitusSumMe

AndyJS said:

Surely the question is why aren't Labour picking up any votes from people who voted Conservative in 2010?

Around the time of the Omnishambles budget and the triple dip that wasn't Labour did attract many Conservative 2010 voters, but they have now swing back or gone to UKIP.

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I concur a smooth transition would benefit both sides. I do think, though, that for electoral as well as economic reasons a currency union is unlikely. The next General Election will be less than a year after the vote, after all.

MD , interesting times and a lot of water to go under the bridge by then. The world / markets position after YES will be the deciding factor. If no-one gives a jot then it will be tougher negotiations, if they get the jitters it will be quick and amiable.

Stuart_Dickson

Stuart_Dickson said:

Here is today's bang up-to-date Populus aggregate. The Scottish sub-sample size is 1,589

(+/- change on last month's Populus aggregate)

SNP 34% (n/c)
Lab 32% (-2)
Con 19% (+1)
LD 7% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)
Grn 3% (+1)

http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_April_2014.pdf

The betting value must lie in those Edinburgh seats. Eg. the SNP are a stunningly daft 40/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith (previously 50/1). I think that Shadsy must have mixed up the SNP and LD prices when he pressed the save button.

Baxtered, those findings would result in the following seat distribution in Scotland

Lab 29 seats (-11)
SNP 25 seats (+19)
Con 3 seats (+2)
LD 2 seats (-9)
IND 0 seats (-1)

CON Gains (both from Lib Dems):
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Moore)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Smith)

SNP Gains from LAB:
Aberdeen North (vacant)
Aberdeen South (Begg)
Ayrshire North and Arran (Clark)
Dundee West (McGovern)
Edinburgh East (Gilmore)
Edinburgh North and Leith (Lazarowicz)
Edinburgh South (Murray)
Livingston (Morrice)
Midlothian (Hamilton)
Ochil and South Perthshire (Banks)
Stirling (vacant)

SNP Gains from LIB DEMS:
Argyll and Bute (Reid)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Thurso)
East Dunbartonshire (Swinson)
Edinburgh West (Crockart)
Gordon (vacant)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Alexander)
North East Fife (vacant)

SNP Gain from IND:
Falkirk (vacant, Joyce standing down)