I have still not forgotten the World Cup final in 1978 where the host team Argentina played Holland and how their antics even before the game started followed by their behaviour on the pitch along with the incredibly intimidating atmosphere in the stadium and the shocking referee decisions throughout the game which set the tone for the worst final I have ever watched.
So I was no fan of the Argentina football team way before the hand of god incident against England and nothing I have seen since then in their continued World Cup appearances has ever managed to make me warm to them while I have in contrast developed a huge fondness over the years for their neighbour Brazil's national football team and their fans despite the amount of times Scotland has played and lost to them in World Cup tournaments!
So when England face Argentina on Wednesday I will be cheering on the remaining home nation team in the World Cup tournament with gusto! I would love to see England win against Argentina and face France in the final, especially in light of the fact that the French have just loaned the British Museum the Bayeux Tapestry...
In hindsight it seemed very likely that the semi-finalists would probably be France, Spain, Argentina, England, but I wonder what the odds on that combination was before the tournament started. (Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any way to find out what they were at that time).
I cannot see any odds against naming the semi-finalists but here are the pre-tournament outright prices:-
ETA: look how far down you have to go to find Switzerland.
ETA: evidence against England being under-priced for patriotic mugs! The perennially under-priced and overrated team is Brazil. Does anyone know if Nate Silver tipped them yet again?
I will not have to listen to Sam Matterface and Lee Dixon commentate on another England match for the rest of the tournament.
I'd be interested in the views of our resident statistician - but for about 25 years (roughly 1995-2020) the performances on ITV seemed to be consistently awful. It wasn't just win/lose, it was that the wins in ITV were unconvincing 2-0s against tiny Carribbean nations; the losses on BBC were creditable performances against Brazil and the losses on ITV were abject capitulations against Iceland. I don't believe it was a curse - but it was a very strong correlation. But over the last five years or so the pattern seems to uave gone away.
So the difference between groups is significant and the association is moderate
Result: Statistically Significant
There IS a statistically significant association between the variables (p = 0.0016).
At the 0.05 significance level, we reject the null hypothesis of independence. The two categorical variables appear to be related.
The effect size (Cramér's V = 0.397) suggests a moderate association.
Remember: Statistical significance doesn't necessarily mean practical importance. Consider the effect size and real-world context.
So yes, the curse of ITV exists, but it's not a big curse. Kind of "you will have a shitty job" instead of "you will be unemployed for ever and your willy will drop off"
Of course, kids today would have to write a bloody letter program and do ten thousand iterations, wheras I just googled for a calculator and did it in under five minutes. Also of course I could have asked an AI, but cut me some slack it's gone midnight. If I've made a mistake I'm sure some kind person will point it out, so apologies in advance
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
She's assuming he won't be in the role for long, so they'll need the income.
Pre-DnD discussion yesterday turned to how many Prime Ministers we've had since the campaign started mid-2023. Apparently the answer's just three, Sunak, Starmer and, (imminently) Burnham. If it had started a year earlier the answer would be five.
With McConnell er, "unable to attend Congress", that makes for an interesting Senate for Trump.
The governor can appoint a replacement, and since he spends a lot of time sucking up to Trump he will almost certainly appoint somebody Trump will like very much.
Senator Graham's office called it a "brief and sudden illness."
Now we have NBC News adding EMTs responded to "cardiac arrest."
NBC: Emergency personnel responded to a call for “cardiac arrest” at Graham’s Capitol Hill home on Saturday night, according to police scanner audio obtained by NBC News.
Great, now we're going to have a week of people asking if Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham, and I wouldn't be shocked if one of the people wondering about it was Putin.
Bortnikov: "Honestly? No clue. It sounds like something we'd do."
Senate vacancy primer, South Carolina: - McMaster can appoint an interim senator - There will be a special election in Nov (only covers lame duck few weeks) - Graham's seat was already up for a regular 2026 election - State GOP will also pick a new nominee to replace Graham for the regular election
Senate vacancy primer, South Carolina: - McMaster can appoint an interim senator - There will be a special election in Nov (only covers lame duck few weeks) - Graham's seat was already up for a regular 2026 election - State GOP will also pick a new nominee to replace Graham for the regular election
AIUI that bit may not be correct. The interim Senator serves until January 3rd following the next set of elections, unless it is less than one hundred days before them (which this isn't).
With McConnell er, "unable to attend Congress", that makes for an interesting Senate for Trump.
The governor can appoint a replacement, and since he spends a lot of time sucking up to Trump he will almost certainly appoint somebody Trump will like very much.
A Trump-endorsed replacement might help them to November. But not beyond. Likely means another seat the Republicans have to spend a shed load of cash they ween't expecting.
With McConnell er, "unable to attend Congress", that makes for an interesting Senate for Trump.
The governor can appoint a replacement, and since he spends a lot of time sucking up to Trump he will almost certainly appoint somebody Trump will like very much.
A Trump-endorsed replacement might help them to November. But not beyond. Likely means another seat the Republicans have to spend a shed load of cash they ween't expecting.
It wouldn't surprise me at all, on reflection, if McMaster was himself the nominee. Whether he goes to the Senate in advance might be a different question given the complications around Evette losing the gubernatorial primary.
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
Sad news, Graham was very pro funding Ukraine and had only just met Zelensky before he died.
He also had an over 30 year record of serving in Congress, most of that in the Senate but before that in the House of Representatives. A confirmed bachelor he is survived by his sister who he helped raise when his parents died relatively young and nieces
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
I kind of fuck with this idea. The new MGs are cheap shit but the old MGs were cheap shit, so it's on brand.
It needs careful positioning in the market because the hot hatch market is sadly almost dead. The Civic Type-R is gone from the UK market so it's basically multiple Golf GTI derivatives vs GR Yaris.
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
The fact that even dismally awful politicians can turn their attention to making real serious money by using their trashed reputation to delude the ignorant and extreme on the lecture and media circus is having a serious effect of political behaviour. There is serious money in being extreme and useless. Attlee's world this is not.
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
It is extremely worrying to think there are people out there mad enough to pay to hear Liz Truss speak.
I'd they're not mad before, listening to Liz might be enough to drive them so.
As for Marie-France Van Heel, she's hardly the first Prime Ministerial spouse to have an interesting meaningful career of their own. The only difference is the rush with which Mr Burnham is Going to Westminster.
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
It is extremely worrying to think there are people out there mad enough to pay to hear Liz Truss speak.
I'd they're not mad before, listening to Liz might be enough to drive them so.
As for Marie-France Van Heel, she's hardly the first Prime Ministerial spouse to have an interesting meaningful career of their own. The only difference is the rush with which Mr Burnham is Going to Westminster.
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
The fact that even dismally awful politicians can turn their attention to making real serious money by using their trashed reputation to delude the ignorant and extreme on the lecture and media circus is having a serious effect of political behaviour. There is serious money in being extreme and useless. Attlee's world this is not.
That will give Farage some comfort in these difficult times....
I will not have to listen to Sam Matterface and Lee Dixon commentate on another England match for the rest of the tournament.
I'd be interested in the views of our resident statistician - but for about 25 years (roughly 1995-2020) the performances on ITV seemed to be consistently awful. It wasn't just win/lose, it was that the wins in ITV were unconvincing 2-0s against tiny Carribbean nations; the losses on BBC were creditable performances against Brazil and the losses on ITV were abject capitulations against Iceland. I don't believe it was a curse - but it was a very strong correlation. But over the last five years or so the pattern seems to uave gone away.
So the difference between groups is significant and the association is moderate
Result: Statistically Significant
There IS a statistically significant association between the variables (p = 0.0016).
At the 0.05 significance level, we reject the null hypothesis of independence. The two categorical variables appear to be related.
The effect size (Cramér's V = 0.397) suggests a moderate association.
Remember: Statistical significance doesn't necessarily mean practical importance. Consider the effect size and real-world context.
So yes, the curse of ITV exists, but it's not a big curse. Kind of "you will have a shitty job" instead of "you will be unemployed for ever and your willy will drop off"
Of course, kids today would have to write a bloody program and do ten thousand iterations, wheras I just googled for a calculator and did it in under five minutes. Also of course I could have asked an AI, but cut me some slack it's gone midnight. If I've made a mistake I'm sure some kind person will point it out, so apologies in advance
Thanks Viewcode. I knew it. I reckon if you were to further rank the results by quality (e.g. a 2-0 win over T&T shouldn't really go in the win column) you'd have got an even better curse. When I uninformedly tell people the results are significant I get told " no they aren't" by people who really mean "I cannot conceive any possible causal link". Which isn't the same thing. Not least because if it were a curse then of course you wouldn't; curses are by their nature magical. To be clear, I don't believe in a curse. But I also don't believe in dismissing statistical evidence because the results don't fit my preconceived ideas.
I suspect once you take 2026 results into account the curse goes away. Perhaps the curse of ITV is simply now "you will be cursed by having to endure the views of a permanently angry Irishman".
'Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies
* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11..'
It is extremely worrying to think there are people out there mad enough to pay to hear Liz Truss speak.
I'd they're not mad before, listening to Liz might be enough to drive them so.
As for Marie-France Van Heel, she's hardly the first Prime Ministerial spouse to have an interesting meaningful career of their own. The only difference is the rush with which Mr Burnham is Going to Westminster.
Comments
So I was no fan of the Argentina football team way before the hand of god incident against England and nothing I have seen since then in their continued World Cup appearances has ever managed to make me warm to them while I have in contrast developed a huge fondness over the years for their neighbour Brazil's national football team and their fans despite the amount of times Scotland has played and lost to them in World Cup tournaments!
So when England face Argentina on Wednesday I will be cheering on the remaining home nation team in the World Cup tournament with gusto! I would love to see England win against Argentina and face France in the final, especially in light of the fact that the French have just loaned the British Museum the Bayeux Tapestry...
Hoping this is a day when the upstairs can actually cool down. Tired of this prolonged heatwave with interludes of bearable temperatures.
ETA: look how far down you have to go to find Switzerland.
ETA: evidence against England being under-priced for patriotic mugs! The perennially under-priced and overrated team is Brazil. Does anyone know if Nate Silver tipped them yet again?
https://x.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/2076185414721847673?s=61
https://x.com/VoteHub/status/2076189100856824049
RIP
Slightly more honest than McConnell to the end.
RIP and we need to play up play up and play the game so ... one of the great characters of American public life. Yep.
Senator Graham's office called it a "brief and sudden illness."
Now we have NBC News adding EMTs responded to "cardiac arrest."
NBC: Emergency personnel responded to a call for “cardiac arrest” at Graham’s Capitol Hill home on Saturday night, according to police scanner audio obtained by NBC News.
Great, now we're going to have a week of people asking if Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham, and I wouldn't be shocked if one of the people wondering about it was Putin.
Bortnikov: "Honestly? No clue. It sounds like something we'd do."
Senate vacancy primer, South Carolina:
- McMaster can appoint an interim senator
- There will be a special election in Nov (only covers lame duck few weeks)
- Graham's seat was already up for a regular 2026 election
- State GOP will also pick a new nominee to replace Graham for the regular election
https://law.justia.com/codes/south-carolina/title-7/chapter-19/section-7-19-20/?__cf_chl_tk=zVzhAWxwoJvr2NT7VGmyokZgKFmhKvjfi9Gv8MVNzec-1783838521-1.0.1.1-gDWGuuRmRpdlFe8Yj6NfXMTkFA.z9Uf1oypYHOWw9Pc
The only question might be, will he pick the person chosen to be the new candidate for the seat? It would be logical to.
Government to launch consultation after Everton’s deal with Stake.com went ahead amid warnings from Gambling Commission
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jul/12/uk-unlicensed-casinos-football-sponsorship-gambling-commission
Any celebrity Everton fans and soon-to-be Prime Ministers you can think of?
Malak al-Maut has put a shift in over this last week. Good work.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/liz-truss-rakes-in-250k-in-speaking-fees-DWzgFX_2/
Drones reportedly flying around "like they own the place".
!,320 Rusian troops and 57 artillery/MLRS not reporting for duty in the Ukrainian SMO today.
He also had an over 30 year record of serving in Congress, most of that in the Senate but before that in the House of Representatives. A confirmed bachelor he is survived by his sister who he helped raise when his parents died relatively young and nieces
It needs careful positioning in the market because the hot hatch market is sadly almost dead. The Civic Type-R is gone from the UK market so it's basically multiple Golf GTI derivatives vs GR Yaris.
As for Marie-France Van Heel, she's hardly the first Prime Ministerial spouse to have an interesting meaningful career of their own. The only difference is the rush with which Mr Burnham is Going to Westminster.
To be clear, I don't believe in a curse. But I also don't believe in dismissing statistical evidence because the results don't fit my preconceived ideas.
I suspect once you take 2026 results into account the curse goes away. Perhaps the curse of ITV is simply now "you will be cursed by having to endure the views of a permanently angry Irishman".