Why a change of leader might not help Labour – politicalbetting.com
Why a change of leader might not help Labour – politicalbetting.com
Would a potential Labour successor do a better job than Keir Starmer? % of Britons saying each potential alternative would be better:Andy Burnham: 34%Angela Rayner: 15%Ed Miliband: 13%Wes Streeting: 13%Yvette Cooper: 9%Shabana Mahmood: 9%David Lammy: 3%yougov.com/en-gb/articl…
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From the Chairman of the Tory Party
Foreign donations are illegal. Politicians who funnel and hide unlawful money should face the full force of the law.
The police must investigate Reform UK’s spokesman for Financial Affairs Robert Jenrick. The Conservative Party has also reported Mr Jenrick to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, given the apparent serious breach of House of Commons rules.
Parliament, the public and the Conservative Party all appear to have been deceived. While Robert Jenrick has been kicked out of the Conservative Party and is now Nigel Farage’s right hand man, this represents serious malpractice in a leadership contest.
https://x.com/kevinhollinrake/status/2048752802923503792
Based on this story.
Police assess evidence on £40,000 donation to Robert Jenrick’s campaign
Exclusive: Some donations to 2024 Tory leadership campaign allegedly originated from US businessman in breach of electoral rules
Police are assessing evidence about donations to Robert Jenrick’s campaign to become Conservative leader in 2024 after a referral from the elections watchdog, the Guardian can reveal.
The information was passed on by the Electoral Commission, which the Guardian understands has been investigating allegations that almost £40,000 of donations to Jenrick’s leadership campaign before he defected to Reform UK, were from a foreign source in breach of electoral rules.
The Met said: “On Tuesday, 6 January we received a referral from the Electoral Commission concerning donations connected to a leadership campaign. This referral is under review and until it has been completed, we’re not in a position to comment further.”
The Electoral Commission confirmed that it had sent evidence about a leadership campaign to the Met after conducting its own investigation, with its inquiries now paused while the police review the material. The exact scope of the review is unclear and the police have not confirmed whether it relates to any specific individual. They could decide to open an investigation or take no further action.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/27/police-assess-claim-robert-jenrick-accepted-donation-from-foreign-donor
TEN DAYS TO SAVE THE LABOUR PARTY!
Angie, Angie
When will those clouds all disappear?
Angie, Angie
Where will it lead us from here?
(Hat tip to Mick Jagger and Keith Richards)
Heh.
Starmer he has contempt for after he failed to support the Iran strikes
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-11-26-mn-3989-story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/25/world/with-thatcher-gone-labor-party-loses-lead-in-polls.html
A spokesman for Jenrick said: “The suggestion that Robert knowingly accepted impermissible donations is an untrue, politically motivated smear, put about years later by the Conservatives, despite the fact that Mr Ullman was introduced to Robert by a Tory MP, and had his donations’ permissibility checked by the party.
But since the rat has run to Reform, it’s open season. Will it be this or the investigation into his tax affairs that does for him? Or even neither of them? Answers on a postcard...
“So strange from a historical perspective to think of Poland as a higher income country than the UK.
The home of Adam Smith and David Hume decided it wanted a high-tax welfare state. Look where they are now.”
https://x.com/richardhanania/status/2048605831852343624?s=46
The CBI's monthly retail sales volume measure tumbled to –68 in April 2026, a 16-point drop and the lowest reading since the series began in 1983. The figure, far worse than the expected –48, marks the steepest year-over-year decline in retail activity in over four decades, as the escalating Iran war intensifies household inflation concerns.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/cbi-distributive-trades
Do these people live under a rock ? Are they so clueless that they don’t even know the recent policies put forward by Reform ?
Or is this a case of Reform hate the same people as they do so they’re happy to get fxcked .
➡️North: Farage, +2
➡️Midlands: Farage, +5
🌳 South: Badenoch, +3
🌹 London: Starmer, +2
➡️ Wales: Farage, +4
🌍 Scotland: Polanski, +3
Figures are margins over the second-placed party leader by net favourability.
Via
@Ipsos_in_the_UK
, 17-21 April.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2048743559621128687?s=20
Most favoured politician, including party leaders, Burnham, Reeves, Miliband, Streeting, Rayner, Cooper and Donald Trump.
🌹 North: Burnham, +13
➡️ Midlands: Farage, +4
🌳 South: Badenoch, +3
🌹 London: Burnham, +1
🌹 Wales: Burnham, +5
🌹 Scotland: Burnham, +3
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2048743744141209742?s=20
On the other hand, if Starmer and Reeves time it well they could pass the bucket of s**t to someone else.
Reform are a cancer on the UK .
🎗️ SNP: 61 (-3) - 38.9% | 30.1% - 4 Short.
🌹 LAB: 18 (-4) - 18.6% | 16.3%
➡️ RFM: 17 (+17) - 17.1% | 17.0%
🌍 GRN: 13 (+5) - 1.5% | 13.0%
🌳 CON: 11 (-20) - 10.2% | 10.9%
🔶 LDM: 9 (+5) - 10.1% | 9.3%
Changes w/ 2021.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2048760533050966257?s=20
My OH had a few days in Burford which she described as Royston Vasey meets Midsomer Murders. While there she visited Jeremy Clarkson's pub which she said was massive but full. The £28 mugs in the gift shop were a touch too expensive for anyone other than US tourists. Certainly not making diddly squat from the place.
Though not Starmer's.
..
Schofield
@KevinASchofield
This is interesting.
Ellie Chowns, the Green Party's leader at Westminster, distances herself from Zack Polanski's suggestion that Donald Trump is worse than Vladimir Putin.
Polanski said: "As horrendous as Putin is… I’ve never seen him threaten genocide. I’ve never seen him threaten to wipe out a civilisation… Starmer’s so-called special relationship is more of a danger than what Putin is doing in Ukraine."
She told the BBC: "That’s not my position, let me be clear. I’ve seen Vladimir Putin himself launch an illegal invasion of Ukraine, he’s responsible for tens of thousands of deaths. Absolutely despicable."
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2048769873719742887
Our problem is that we wanted a high tax welfare state, for three or four decades, without paying high taxes.
Blame Thatcher for starting that.
Now we have both high debt and high taxes.
And our leaders still think we're rich (because they spend all their time in London).
https://www.ft.com/content/a5337386-6e29-4a6e-9d0e-8d58597fb23e
https://x.com/JackElsom/status/2048764148771688942
NEW: Downing Street is furious that this Privileges Committee vote is going ahead tomorrow
A No10 spokesperson said: “The government is engaging with the two parliamentary processes that are already running on Peter Mandelson’s appointment with full transparency.
“This is a desperate political stunt by the Conservative Party the week before the May elections because they have no answers on the cost of living or the NHS. Their claims have no substance.”
They also manage excellent public services still too
My wife and I are wondering what happened to the steak and lobster for 2,600 ppl that never got served at last night’s #WHCD?
https://x.com/NicoPerrino/status/2048515390930551038
… oh… you meant the *Falkland* Islands…
Heseltine's problem was that he'd wielded the knife. After Thatcher withdrew, he needed to find votes from the 55% or so of Tory MPs who'd stuck with Maggie, whilst not leaking votes from those who'd rather held their nose and voted for him in the first round because they'd realised that the Poll Tax would sink them and Thatcher wasn't going to ditch it.
Major actually won handsomely - he was only a handful off a majority in round two, and it never went to round three as it was clear Hurd's votes would move en masse to him and he'd win at a canter.
Did the polling help allay fears among Tory MPs that Major wouldn't be a big enough move? Probably a bit, but I rather think Heseltine, with hindsight, didn't have a route once he'd kicked off the contest.
This was of interest, because it suggests that the Conservatives have actually hired some professionals.
Unlike the due diligence of other parties.
By the way, that's also 2,600 people, mostly journalists, prepared to josh for hours and sit in the same room as Trump for their entertainment. Are they all insane?
The key fact about EU membership in this context is that they subsidised Poland by about 3% of GDP/year for 20 years, and are still doing so, while much of that came from our taxpayers until we wisely put a stop to it.
When he tries anything more complex (like sabotaging his own party's conference) he falls apart like a cheap knock-off Ralph Lauren polo shirt.
I.e. this is a local election about who are responsible for local roads, social care, rubbish, buses, council tax
This is a national election which means foreign policy, defence, education, trains and all taxes apart from council tax
1. Opinion should not be judged in its own right, but in direct comparison with Starmer.
In the source YouGov article, "Do you think Keir Starmer has been a.... PM" shows 10% answering good/great and 58% poor/terrible (and -35% terrible!) Net -48%
By comparison with that -48%, net opinion on the others (in terms of "would be") is:
Burnham +7%
Rayner -31%
Miliband -31%
Cooper -25%
Streeting -25%
Mahmood -28%
Key point: Whille expectations of the potential replacements are other than Burnham pretty low all round, in all cases they are still less bad than actual opinion of Starmer. And obviously they'll also have a limited initial opportunity to shift opinion while the jury is still out on them, an opportunity Starmer no longer has.
2. To revive its fortunes, Labour needs to attract people who might consider voting Labour, not the dyed in the wool Conservatives and hostile Reform voters who would not consider voting Labour in a month of Sundays. So opinion of 2024 Labour voters (and to an extent 2024 Lib Dems and Greens) is really what matters. As things stand, the likely winning party in 2029 will be the one which is able to consolidate support from 30% or so of the electorate, and you don't need to fish in the whole sea to catch that number.
As YouGov haven't yet put up the full tables, all we have to go on is 2024 Labour voters. Net results for 2024 Labour voters are as follows to the "Do you think X has been/would be a.... PM":
Starmer -13%
Burnham +31%
Rayner -5%
Miliband -5%
Cooper -6%
Streeting -15%
Mahmood -26%
Key point: Leavng aside Burnham's very positive rating, only Rayner, Miliband and Cooper are viewed less badly than Starmer amongst 2024 Labour voters.
Conclusion: When things kick off after the locals while Burnham watches from the sidelines, the contenders to replace Starmer should be offering the earth to Burnham to secure his backing, not only to better position themselves in the contest but also to attract subsequent support by association from the general public should they win. It seems highly likely to me that Burnham will be offered a peerage and a leading role in the Cabinet should Rayner or Miliband end up as next PM. Note that nothing formally prevents Burnham from being a Cabinet minister while remaining as GM Metro Mayor.
The appointment of Lord Hermer is considerably worse.
Most of us are only realising today, that Hermer, Starmer, and Phil Shiner, were the three biggest advocates of lawsuits against British soldiers, on evidence that was at best obtained through coercion, and at worst was simply fabricated.
Meanwhile combined support for those two parties in the constituency vote would be barely 40%. Which Swinney will take as a mandate for a new vote on secession.
A trip to Plaistow (aka Newham Independent heartland) but not the display of posters I was expecting apart from the businesses in Vicarage Road. The NIP should win Plaistow North and South comfortably - Plaistow West, which borders into Canning Town, is more problematic.
However, on returning to my Hindu area, I see three NIP posterboards in the road adjoining mine. IF the NIP think they are in with a shout of winning my Ward, this election is over and Mehmood Mirza will be Mayor with a big NIP majority on the council and Labour shattered.
Could it be that big a win? It's not inconceivable but my Ward has a strong Hindu population and oddly enough is probably the best prospect for the Conservatives in the Borough. An NIP win would be an earthquake and leave those predicting a Labour hold greyjoyed.
Friendly note to Labour MPs ahead of the vote tomorrow to decide if Starmer should face an ethics probe:
If you vote against it, Reform will carpet bomb your constituency to ensure all your constituents know you voted to save the most unpopular PM of all time.
Vote wisely.
3/4 of them are toast at the next election anyway, why would anyone not on the payroll vote for this?
https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2048801724089913444
Gordon Brown has now rowed in behind the prime minister, telling Labour MPs to 'put the needs of the country first' at a time when there are 'conflicts raging around the World'