I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
Young voters are more likely to be double registered that more senior voters. By law you can only vote for one election at one place where there are multiple elections on the same day. But, because local councils are so fragmented it would be unlikely many double registered voters would have voting in both places they are registered. I know most universities register all their students as a matter of course, as generally they should. but it looks better for the uni. Oh, look all those students. But not all students will want to vote there but would only want to vote at their real home.
This is never taken account of when considering percentage turnouts. This used ot be most spectacular at Catterick in N Yorks where all the squaddies on the electoral role have moved elsewhere by the time of the election. That also messed up the warding of the old Richmondshire District Council, probably still does for North Yorks.
Time was you could vote for more than 1 council election at the same time. I had a postal vote in Wales and a real vote in oxfordshire. I contacted the Electoral commission and they confirmed I could vote in both. I kept the email for potection. It may be different now though.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
Young voters are more likely to be double registered that more senior voters. By law you can only vote for one election at one place where there are multiple elections on the same day. But, because local councils are so fragmented it would be unlikely many double registered voters would have voting in both places they are registered. I know most universities register all their students as a matter of course, as generally they should. but it looks better for the uni. Oh, look all those students. But not all students will want to vote there but would only want to vote at their real home.
This is never taken account of when considering percentage turnouts. This used ot be most spectacular at Catterick in N Yorks where all the squaddies on the electoral role have moved elsewhere by the time of the election. That also messed up the warding of the old Richmondshire District Council, probably still does for North Yorks.
Time was you could vote for more than 1 council election at the same time. I had a postal vote in Wales and a real vote in oxfordshire. I contacted the Electoral commission and they confirmed I could vote in both. I kept the email for potection. It may be different now though.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
Restore represent the full on racists who have long been excluded from the Conservative big tent.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Although they gained those before the Polanskigasm and hard shift to the left. Today’s Green Party might not do as well in those areas.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
"Necessity" or "Manifest Destiny" or "Gathering of the Russian Lands" or similar slogans are usually covers for ethnic cleansing or genocide of one type or another, and should be regarded as such.
From early on, the leadership of the Zionist movement had the idea of "transferring" (a euphemism for ethnic cleansing) the Arab Palestinian population out of the land for the purpose of establishing a Jewish demographic majority.[58][59][60][61][62] According to the Israeli historian Benny Morris the idea of transfer was "inevitable and inbuilt into Zionism".[63]
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
Local elections skew older in demographics so there’s reason to think the Greens might under perform.
If age is the key factor, that suggests Fash and Con do better than expected.
Tories are certainly hoping their older vote turns out this year after having an early lunch and a long nap last year. The old dears round here in North Norfolk are being herded with my prodding devices
Shame they didn't stay home for the EU Referendum.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Although they gained those before the Polanskigasm and hard shift to the left. Today’s Green Party might not do as well in those areas.
Local elections skew older in demographics so there’s reason to think the Greens might under perform.
If age is the key factor, that suggests Fash and Con do better than expected.
Tories are certainly hoping their older vote turns out this year after having an early lunch and a long nap last year. The old dears round here in North Norfolk are being herded with my prodding devices
Shame they didn't stay home for the EU Referendum.
I wasn't here then, i was herding drug addicts in Norwich
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
"Necessity" or "Manifest Destiny" or "Gathering of the Russian Lands" or similar slogans are usually covers for ethnic cleansing or genocide of one type or another, and should be regarded as such.
From early on, the leadership of the Zionist movement had the idea of "transferring" (a euphemism for ethnic cleansing) the Arab Palestinian population out of the land for the purpose of establishing a Jewish demographic majority.[58][59][60][61][62] According to the Israeli historian Benny Morris the idea of transfer was "inevitable and inbuilt into Zionism".[63]
Very early on, some (more political and less religious) Zionists saw the Palestinian population as their long lost brothers (as indeed they kind of are) and believed they would band together with the Jewish immigrants in a socialist utopia. This belief did not last long.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
A few Labour leaflets here in da North Ilford Ghetto! No sign of the other parties!
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
A few Labour leaflets here in da North Ilford Ghetto! No sign of the other parties!
Redbridge is set to become Bluebridge in a shocking twist
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Although they gained those before the Polanskigasm and hard shift to the left. Today’s Green Party might not do as well in those areas.
I think you will be surprised in May.
I think Labour and the Tories are going to lose lots of votes and someone always has to win, so, sure, I can easily image Green gains all over the place. But I think the Green surge under Polanski is different to the Green surge that won, e.g. Chowns her seat.
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
That’s just looking at the core state of Israel. I think the point was about in all the territory Israel now controls: Gaza, the West Bank, a chunk of Syria, and now a piece of Lebanon.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics defines the population of Israel as including Jews living in all of the West Bank and Palestinians in East Jerusalem but excluding Palestinians anywhere in the rest of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and foreign workers anywhere in Israel.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Although they gained those before the Polanskigasm and hard shift to the left. Today’s Green Party might not do as well in those areas.
I think you will be surprised in May.
I think Labour and the Tories are going to lose lots of votes and someone always has to win, so, sure, I can easily image Green gains all over the place. But I think the Green surge under Polanski is different to the Green surge that won, e.g. Chowns her seat.
Herefordshire not voting of course but Ramsays Suffolk is up. Greens hold 9 seats on the council, not exclusively in Waveney Valley. Its very arts and cratftsy territory so will be interested in how Greens hold up round Beccles, Halesworth etc. They arent more obvious Reform areas like Lowestoft or Ipswich and its probably not the sort of area for a significant Tory recovery They should be fine for now but i see Waveney Valley being lost at a GE
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Reform, Restore and Conservative are individual components essentially of the big tent that the Tories always bragged about. Time for rapprochement?
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Im somewhat surprised ive not had anything from Reform yet, im not remotely surprised the Tories havent bothered in a ward they get 2/3rds of the vote in last time the lazy gits.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
In the area bounded by "the river and the sea", it's almost exactly 50/50 between Palestinians and Israeli Jews. The Wikipedia article is including settlers in the West Bank as being part of Israel (where, of course they have the vote), but not Palestinians.
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Im somewhat surprised ive not had anything from Reform yet, im not remotely surprised the Tories havent bothered in a ward they get 2/3rds of the vote in last time the lazy gits.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
That’s just looking at the core state of Israel. I think the point was about in all the territory Israel now controls: Gaza, the West Bank, a chunk of Syria, and now a piece of Lebanon.
Technically most of that is still the Palestinian Authority and as you say patches of Syria and Lebanon not the internationally recognised borders of the nation of Israel itself
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
Yes. There's only so much Rum, Sodomy or Lash that you can cope with before you want to go home. I've done 2 and don't fancy the 3rd...
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
The LibDems are the political wing of the Waitrose loyalty scheme.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
Yes. There's only so much Rum, Sodomy or Lash that you can cope with before you want to go home. I've done 2 and don't fancy the 3rd...
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Im somewhat surprised ive not had anything from Reform yet, im not remotely surprised the Tories havent bothered in a ward they get 2/3rds of the vote in last time the lazy gits.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
I can't see myself voting Reform (at the moment anyway).
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
I suggested a while back that he'd be onto a winner with transwomen who'd rather avoid the drugs for figure enhancement.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
I can't see myself voting Reform (at the moment anyway).
Bless you and thanks for your service to the country ! Actually I know a lot of Leavers who can’t stand Farage and this forum does give me hope .
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
A soft open prison though. The Maximum Security facility is reserved for MAGA voters in US swing states.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
I want a party that restores the key pillars of the British constitution, eliminates needless regulation and red tape and the quangocracy that underpins it, rescues key industries like virgin steelmaking (there is no 'Thatcherite' laissez faire way to do this and it's specious of the Tories to pretend there is), legalises fracking and provides a regulatory environment where it can flourish, unleashes the North Sea and SMRs, stands up to Chinese domination whilst we still can, and pursues the national interest vigorously at every opportunity. My preference would be for the Tories to do all this, but I don't trust them to.
That doesn't appear to fit Reform UK that well. Reform UK favour reform and change to the constitution,e.g. introducing PR, creating a new Bill of Rights, abolishing the House of Lords, and replacing civil servants with political appointees. Fracking was not mentioned in their 2024 manifesto, although they do like SMRs. I don't hear Reform talking about China much (zero mentions in the 2024 manifesto) and how much they would pursue the national interest is questionable, given we've seen Reform politicians being bought by Russia. Reform's priorities are around immigration, deportations, restricting Islam and reversing smoking laws.
We have not seen Reform politicians bought by Russia, we saw an ex-Brexit Party politician convicted of being bought by Russia.
I too want a moderation in support for Ukraine based on what we can afford and the many security threats we face, just as I want moderation in support for the USA's attack on Iran. Sometimes the UK's national interest will involve rejecting the latest cause celebre and appearing small, mean, or isolationist. We need to have the confidence and thick skin to do that. I want someone that is prepared to face those sorts of brickbats. So far, Nigel has gone more down that line than other politicians, though I concede his recent support for US adventurism is a slight concern. However, I see why he felt he needed to be supportive.
There was no need to mention China a lot in the 2024 manifesto. Farage has been strong in opposing the super-embassy, and strong in opposing China's dirty tricks in shutting down our virgin steel making capacity. It was an act of flagrant PRC sabotage, and still the useless security risk in number 10 sends a negotiator to 'coordinate much more closely' with Beijing.
As for your impression of Reform's priorities, with a caveat around 'restricting' Islam, I'm comfortable with all that.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
I can't see myself voting Reform (at the moment anyway).
Bless you and thanks for your service to the country ! Actually I know a lot of Leavers who can’t stand Farage and this forum does give me hope .
As a Leaver, I am as determined as anyone to see Reform fail.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
A soft open prison though. The Maximum Security facility is reserved for MAGA voters in swing states.
MAGA voters really are on another planet !
Thankfully the UK remains relatively sane for the timebeing . We have neither an obsession with guns or religion or telling women what to do with their bodies .
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
That was rather my point.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
From the river to the sea
We also love LGBT…
I like it; there's a Green Party anthem in there.
When you consider they want to legalise cannabis, the old Tom Jones song "Green Green Grass Of Home" suggests itself...
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
Amongst Israeli citizens, yes. Amongst total population in territories occupied by Israel, no. This includes 2 million corralled into what is effectively a concentration camp covering the southern part of Gaza.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
I bet as a kid you sent off for those X-ray specs in your Whizzer and Chips, huh?
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
That was rather my point.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
From the river to the sea
We also love LGBT…
I like it; there's a Green Party anthem in there.
When you consider they want to legalise cannabis, the old Tom Jones song "Green Green Grass Of Home" suggests itself...
I’m all for legalising cannabis but I suspect the rest of their drugs policy will be a vote loser .
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
I bet as a kid you sent off for those X-ray specs in your Whizzer and Chips, huh?
Rcs1000 would not have done Wizzer & Chips. I suspect 2000AD...
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
That’s just looking at the core state of Israel. I think the point was about in all the territory Israel now controls: Gaza, the West Bank, a chunk of Syria, and now a piece of Lebanon.
Technically most of that is still the Palestinian Authority and as you say patches of Syria and Lebanon not the internationally recognised borders of the nation of Israel itself
I don't think you can make favourable comparisons with South Africa under Apartheid and not recognise the large populations of subjected second class citizens or non-citizens under both regimes.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
There is (almost) no alcohol on USN ships and the service is better for it in my opinion. I've seen a lot of problems caused by grog on RN vessels at sea.
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Im somewhat surprised ive not had anything from Reform yet, im not remotely surprised the Tories havent bothered in a ward they get 2/3rds of the vote in last time the lazy gits.
I was out delivering Tory leaflets this morning
I've just delivered 900 LibDem leaflets but I've also been asked by Nigel if I'll deliver Reform leaflets in my ward. It's very tempting as it'll split the Tory vote.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
There is (almost) no alcohol on USN ships and the service is better for it in my opinion. I've seen a lot of problems caused by grog on RN vessels at sea.
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
There is (almost) no alcohol on USN ships and the service is better for it in my opinion. I've seen a lot of problems caused by grog on RN vessels at sea.
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
Not surprising when you look at the problems it caused in Under Seige. You're only ever a couple of beers away and a sing song away from Gary Busey in a dress blowing you away.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
There is (almost) no alcohol on USN ships and the service is better for it in my opinion. I've seen a lot of problems caused by grog on RN vessels at sea.
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
Not surprising when you look at the problems it caused in Under Seige. You're only ever a couple of beers away and a sing song away from Gary Busey in a dress blowing you away.
"Do I look like I need a psychological evaluation??"
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
Personally, I think someone who is able to enlargen women's breasts without the need for surgery could go a long way. That's a pretty appealing offering to a substantial number of people.
Also, is he able to use hypnosis to help... umm... members of the ummm... male sex... to enlargen any of their appendages?
BTW, people who I know that still serve report the alcohol aboard is now almost irrelevant for morale purposes. The dominant factor for the morale of the rates is Internet access. If it is off for operational or technical reasons then there's going to be problems...
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
🚨The Green party's controversial Zionism is racism motion has been delayed. Time has run out at the Greens spring conference so the motion could not be heard in full or voted on.
Im sad that the Tories and Reform havent cone to see me after my fun chat with the LDs 3 weeks ago. I need canvass capers! No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
I’ve not been canvassed, but I live in a split Lab/Grn ward at present and both parties are leafletting hard.
Im somewhat surprised ive not had anything from Reform yet, im not remotely surprised the Tories havent bothered in a ward they get 2/3rds of the vote in last time the lazy gits.
I was out delivering Tory leaflets this morning
I've just delivered 900 LibDem leaflets but I've also been asked by Nigel if I'll deliver Reform leaflets in my ward. It's very tempting as it'll split the Tory vote.
Perhaps, on current polls it might also see Reform gain the seat
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
This guy reckons the laundry fire was real, but there was also a sotto-voce revolt amongst the seamen (long tour of duty) combined with a really stupid toilet design and plumbing. In short, they can't sleep (not enough berths), can't wash, can't poo, can't get clean clothes and have been at sea too long. Plus USN vessels are nonalcoholic.
There is (almost) no alcohol on USN ships and the service is better for it in my opinion. I've seen a lot of problems caused by grog on RN vessels at sea.
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
Not surprising when you look at the problems it caused in Under Seige. You're only ever a couple of beers away and a sing song away from Gary Busey in a dress blowing you away.
"Do I look like I need a psychological evaluation??"
No Mr Trump, it's all too bloody obvious without one.
After much filibustering and at least five votes of no confidence in the chair, the ‘Zionism is racism’ motion was not heard at the Greens conference as they ran out of time.
BTW, people who I know that still serve report the alcohol aboard is now almost irrelevant for morale purposes. The dominant factor for the morale of the rates is Internet access. If it is off for operational or technical reasons then there's going to be problems...
There is nothing better for morale than access to internet porn so you can whack off in your bunk. Nothing to do with being in contact with family.
Obvs a problem of someone is watching Tom of Finland Sailor porn non stop but got to have a release.
After much filibustering and at least five votes of no confidence in the chair, the ‘Zionism is racism’ motion was not heard at the Greens conference as they ran out of time.
BTW, people who I know that still serve report the alcohol aboard is now almost irrelevant for morale purposes. The dominant factor for the morale of the rates is Internet access. If it is off for operational or technical reasons then there's going to be problems...
There is nothing better for morale than access to internet porn so you can whack off in your bunk. Nothing to do with being in contact with family.
Obvs a problem of someone is watching Tom of Finland Sailor porn non stop but got to have a release.
It is melancholic to mark the passing of the strange and beautiful Royal Navy tradition of the "shithouse shinpad".
That's interesting - thw BBC News website reports on a large anti far-right march in London organised by the Together Alliance. It says Organisers of Saturday's march claimed as many as 500,000 people had attended, although the Metropolitan Police estimated the figure to be closer to 50,000, adding precise figures were hard to determine due to the spread of the crowds.
Then I looked to see how the 'No Kings' rallies in the USA were getting on. The Yahoo News report also says “No Kings” solidarity protests are drawing large crowds overseas. In London, organizers claimed half a million people turned out on Saturday, the Guardian reported. London's Metropolitan Police offered a far lower estimate, putting the number at roughly 50,000, according to the Guardian. Crowd counts are notoriously difficult to verify, particularly when demonstrators are spread across a wide area.
Sounds like the same march, but ascribed to two different intentions.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
Labour have decreased protection for protected species and are about to decrease it for protected areas, whilst reducing the need for Biodiversity Net Gain for damaging developments. Environmentalists are not going to be voting Labour, except by holding their nose and stopping Reform. The Conservatives did more for the environment than Labour. Not under Kemi they won't though.
That's questionable imo.
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
2 of the 5 Green MPs are in rural areas. Sure the inner cities are the most likely gains, but I expect to see gains in shire areas too.
Polanski has basically shifted the Greens from being an environment focused LDs to being a Corbynite party. That will go down well in inner cities and university towns where you will see Green gains from Labour but go down badly in rural areas and shires and suburbs and cathedral and market towns where you may see some LD, Reform and even Tory gains from the Greens
I'm confident that many previous Green voters have no idea of how the party has abandoned environmentalism for the sunlit uplands of Marxism and antisemitism. So will still be voting for the party thst used to exist, rather than the one it has become.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
The commentary on this thread on Keir Starmer and Yamulkes is interesting.
AIUI his own family is Jewish in background, Mrs Starmer is of course Jewish, and that as a family they follow the Shabbat ritual on Fridays.
I think "atheist Jew" is a fair description of SKS, with the Jewish part being cultural.
Therefore it would not be a surprise to see him in a photo with someone wearing a Yamulke, or it could be an invitee to talk to cabinet. There is the occasional photo of SKS himself wearing a Yamulke in some situations, just as any person might don an item of clothing I do not normally wear in certain situations out of respect.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
Labour have decreased protection for protected species and are about to decrease it for protected areas, whilst reducing the need for Biodiversity Net Gain for damaging developments. Environmentalists are not going to be voting Labour, except by holding their nose and stopping Reform. The Conservatives did more for the environment than Labour. Not under Kemi they won't though.
That's questionable imo.
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
There's a lot more to environmentalism than how we generate leccy.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics defines the population of Israel as including Jews living in all of the West Bank and Palestinians in East Jerusalem but excluding Palestinians anywhere in the rest of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and foreign workers anywhere in Israel.
So, people of one ethnic group count in the West Bank, but people of another do not. I wonder if there’s a word for that?
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
Labour have decreased protection for protected species and are about to decrease it for protected areas, whilst reducing the need for Biodiversity Net Gain for damaging developments. Environmentalists are not going to be voting Labour, except by holding their nose and stopping Reform. The Conservatives did more for the environment than Labour. Not under Kemi they won't though.
That's questionable imo.
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
There's a lot more to environmentalism than how we generate leccy.
That's right; there's self ID, and Gaza, and the legalisation of dugs and prostitution.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics defines the population of Israel as including Jews living in all of the West Bank and Palestinians in East Jerusalem but excluding Palestinians anywhere in the rest of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and foreign workers anywhere in Israel.
So, people of one ethnic group count in the West Bank, but people of another do not. I wonder if there’s a word for that?
It seems poorly phrased. It just means they are counting in the settlements.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
I thought it was as recent as 2006 but I was wrong - 1994 was when the last three Conservatives lost their seats and while the party finished second at every local election (except 2006 when Respect finished second) until 2022, they've never won a seat. Their best shot was the old Royal Docks Ward where they came close in a 2009 by-election, losing by just 15 votes.
The last Lib Dem Councillor on Newham was Alec Kellaway who defected dramatically to Labour during the Newham North East by-election in 1994 when Stephen Timms was first elected, defeating the Conservative Philip Hammond (whatever happened to him?).
Kellaway was a local councillor who had been re-elected the previous month (May 1994).
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
I want a party that restores the key pillars of the British constitution, eliminates needless regulation and red tape and the quangocracy that underpins it, rescues key industries like virgin steelmaking (there is no 'Thatcherite' laissez faire way to do this and it's specious of the Tories to pretend there is), legalises fracking and provides a regulatory environment where it can flourish, unleashes the North Sea and SMRs, stands up to Chinese domination whilst we still can, and pursues the national interest vigorously at every opportunity. My preference would be for the Tories to do all this, but I don't trust them to.
That doesn't appear to fit Reform UK that well. Reform UK favour reform and change to the constitution,e.g. introducing PR, creating a new Bill of Rights, abolishing the House of Lords, and replacing civil servants with political appointees. Fracking was not mentioned in their 2024 manifesto, although they do like SMRs. I don't hear Reform talking about China much (zero mentions in the 2024 manifesto) and how much they would pursue the national interest is questionable, given we've seen Reform politicians being bought by Russia. Reform's priorities are around immigration, deportations, restricting Islam and reversing smoking laws.
We have not seen Reform politicians bought by Russia, we saw an ex-Brexit Party politician convicted of being bought by Russia.
I too want a moderation in support for Ukraine based on what we can afford and the many security threats we face, just as I want moderation in support for the USA's attack on Iran. Sometimes the UK's national interest will involve rejecting the latest cause celebre and appearing small, mean, or isolationist. We need to have the confidence and thick skin to do that. I want someone that is prepared to face those sorts of brickbats. So far, Nigel has gone more down that line than other politicians, though I concede his recent support for US adventurism is a slight concern. However, I see why he felt he needed to be supportive.
There was no need to mention China a lot in the 2024 manifesto. Farage has been strong in opposing the super-embassy, and strong in opposing China's dirty tricks in shutting down our virgin steel making capacity. It was an act of flagrant PRC sabotage, and still the useless security risk in number 10 sends a negotiator to 'coordinate much more closely' with Beijing.
As for your impression of Reform's priorities, with a caveat around 'restricting' Islam, I'm comfortable with all that.
Reform and the Brexit Party are the same thing: it was just a name change.
If I might, you have not addressed the mismatch between your desire to “restore[] the key pillars of the British constitution” and Reform’s… well, reformist constitutional offering.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
Not entirely - the Conservatives won a by-election in the Bemersyde Ward in 1991 which meant they had three sitting councillors up to the 1994 election when all three were defeated.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
A soft open prison though. The Maximum Security facility is reserved for MAGA voters in swing states.
MAGA voters really are on another planet !
Thankfully the UK remains relatively sane for the timebeing . We have neither an obsession with guns or religion or telling women what to do with their bodies .
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
Labour have decreased protection for protected species and are about to decrease it for protected areas, whilst reducing the need for Biodiversity Net Gain for damaging developments. Environmentalists are not going to be voting Labour, except by holding their nose and stopping Reform. The Conservatives did more for the environment than Labour. Not under Kemi they won't though.
That's questionable imo.
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
There's a lot more to environmentalism than how we generate leccy.
Of course. But it tends to be the headliner, alongside the natural environment, in the UK.
And quite often once it arrives most of the things are hardly questioned. The 10p plastic bag tax has reduced use of single use plastic bags by 98% since 2015, that is 7.6 billion per annum to 133 million - does anyone complain any more? And in the last couple of years we have made significant strides in packaging, with afaics "plastic attached to card" packaging falling well away. These days I get a cardboard envelope where I always used to get Jiffy bags.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
Purely out of curiosity, when did the Tories last have representation in Newham?
I thought it was as recent as 2006 but I was wrong - 1994 was when the last three Conservatives lost their seats and while the party finished second at every local election (except 2006 when Respect finished second) until 2022, they've never won a seat. Their best shot was the old Royal Docks Ward where they came close in a 2009 by-election, losing by just 15 votes.
The last Lib Dem Councillor on Newham was Alec Kellaway who defected dramatically to Labour during the Newham North East by-election in 1994 when Stephen Timms was first elected, defeating the Conservative Philip Hammond (whatever happened to him?).
Kellaway was a local councillor who had been re-elected the previous month (May 1994).
Thanks! So we are talking Maggies time the last time they actually won a count! Id have been a teen. Sigh. Edit - not quite, i see there was a 1991 by! Still a teen though lol
BTW, people who I know that still serve report the alcohol aboard is now almost irrelevant for morale purposes. The dominant factor for the morale of the rates is Internet access. If it is off for operational or technical reasons then there's going to be problems...
There is nothing better for morale than access to internet porn so you can whack off in your bunk. Nothing to do with being in contact with family.
Obvs a problem of someone is watching Tom of Finland Sailor porn non stop but got to have a release.
Can’t you just bring a small USB memory device along full of porn? I suspect they want Internet access for more than that.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
Labour have decreased protection for protected species and are about to decrease it for protected areas, whilst reducing the need for Biodiversity Net Gain for damaging developments. Environmentalists are not going to be voting Labour, except by holding their nose and stopping Reform. The Conservatives did more for the environment than Labour. Not under Kemi they won't though.
That's questionable imo.
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
There's a lot more to environmentalism than how we generate leccy.
Given the Planning & Infrastructure Bill (as was) managed to unite in opposition voluntary bodies, such as RSPB and Wildlife Trusts, professional organisations like the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management and even the government's own Office for Environmental Protection, all stating that the P&I Act (as is) will significantly reduce environmental protection, I think we can safely say this Labour government are not environmentally friendly. That's saying nothing about reducing BNG from the Environment Act 2021 (which is about to be reduced even further) and a new Planning act in the pipeline to reduce protection on internationally designated sites coming soon. Labour's reputation is in the toilet with those that care about biodiversity, often cited as Labour's war on nature.
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
A soft open prison though. The Maximum Security facility is reserved for MAGA voters in swing states.
MAGA voters really are on another planet !
Thankfully the UK remains relatively sane for the timebeing . We have neither an obsession with guns or religion or telling women what to do with their bodies .
He has some point there in that women are more fertile in their twenties and early 30s than their late 30s and early 40s though he could have phrased it a bit more diplomatically
A section of older people are a danger to the country . Having screwed their grandkids with the Brexit vote they now seem intent on finishing the country off by voting for the Traitor party .
Which is the Traitor party? ..... Just so I know who I should be voting for.
Very funny ! Reform !
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
A soft open prison though. The Maximum Security facility is reserved for MAGA voters in swing states.
MAGA voters really are on another planet !
Thankfully the UK remains relatively sane for the timebeing . We have neither an obsession with guns or religion or telling women what to do with their bodies .
He has some point there in that women are more fertile in their twenties and early 30s than their late 30s and early 40s though he could have phrased it a bit more diplomatically
I think women know that and don’t need Matt Goodwin to tell them, but maybe he has more experience of discussing fertility with young women than I do.
Comments
Winning here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli–Palestinian_conflict
No placards up anywhere yet round my way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel#:~:text=As of December 2023, this calculation stands,State of Israel in the West Bank.
Its very arts and cratftsy territory so will be interested in how Greens hold up round Beccles, Halesworth etc. They arent more obvious Reform areas like Lowestoft or Ipswich and its probably not the sort of area for a significant Tory recovery
They should be fine for now but i see Waveney Valley being lost at a GE
If people voted for Brexit but won’t vote for Reform then they’ll avoid internment ! The double whammy of Brexit and Reform passes the threshold otherwise !
Also, your comment is interestingly ambiguous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5fsq1hvqo
I too want a moderation in support for Ukraine based on what we can afford and the many security threats we face, just as I want moderation in support for the USA's attack on Iran. Sometimes the UK's national interest will involve rejecting the latest cause celebre and appearing small, mean, or isolationist. We need to have the confidence and thick skin to do that. I want someone that is prepared to face those sorts of brickbats. So far, Nigel has gone more down that line than other politicians, though I concede his recent support for US adventurism is a slight concern. However, I see why he felt he needed to be supportive.
There was no need to mention China a lot in the 2024 manifesto. Farage has been strong in opposing the super-embassy, and strong in opposing China's dirty tricks in shutting down our virgin steel making capacity. It was an act of flagrant PRC sabotage, and still the useless security risk in number 10 sends a negotiator to 'coordinate much more closely' with Beijing.
As for your impression of Reform's priorities, with a caveat around 'restricting' Islam, I'm comfortable with all that.
Thankfully the UK remains relatively sane for the timebeing . We have neither an obsession with guns or religion or telling women what to do with their bodies .
In theory, a USN Captain can authorise two beers/crew member after 45 consecutive days at sea but it never happened on my USN cruise (175 days at sea without a port visit!)
It's very tempting as it'll split the Tory vote.
You had to make do with gin?
It is fishier than Grimsby when the fleet comes in.
Trump is right though. A QE is a "toy" compared to a Ford or Nimitz in every possible way.
@SabriSun_Miller
🚨The Green party's controversial Zionism is racism motion has been delayed. Time has run out at the Greens spring conference so the motion could not be heard in full or voted on.
https://x.com/SabriSun_Miller/status/2037952473248268489
@nicolelampert
After much filibustering and at least five votes of no confidence in the chair, the ‘Zionism is racism’ motion was not heard at the Greens conference as they ran out of time.
It will now go to the autumn conference.
https://x.com/nicolelampert/status/2037953992966168941
Obvs a problem of someone is watching Tom of Finland Sailor porn non stop but got to have a release.
Then I looked to see how the 'No Kings' rallies in the USA were getting on. The Yahoo News report also says “No Kings” solidarity protests are drawing large crowds overseas. In London, organizers claimed half a million people turned out on Saturday, the Guardian reported. London's Metropolitan Police offered a far lower estimate, putting the number at roughly 50,000, according to the Guardian. Crowd counts are notoriously difficult to verify, particularly when demonstrators are spread across a wide area.
Sounds like the same march, but ascribed to two different intentions.
In my part of Newham, after a busy start to the electioneering week, it's gone a bit quiet but I suspect it will pick up after Easter.
The Newham Independents leafletted those at the Eid-al-Fitr prayers last Monday but we also had Labour doing some canvassing while the Conservatives went round the Hindu businesses and put up posters.
My Ward had a by-election in July 2023 - I'm sure we all remember the excitement. Labour got 61% and the Conservatives 27%. The previous May, at the local elections, Labour got about 60% in the Ward but an Independent who I think had connections to the emerging Mirza group got 957 votes which, while about half the Labour numbers, was still well ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and the CPA.
The Greens have no record in my Ward but I'm wondering if the Conservatives think they have a sniff if the Labour vote shifts to the Newham Independents. If half the Labour vote shifts to the Independents, it could be very close between them and the Conservatives on about 30% each - exciting?
I know the Conservatives, Labour and Newham Independents have three candidates - as to who else will be involved in my Ward, I've no clue though I suspect one of the main local Reform people lives locally.
The Greens seem to be targetting the two Forest Gate wards, Maryland and Royal Victoria.
To put it another way, the Greens are targetting the north and south of the Borough leaving the Newham Independents in the middle.
IF the opposition parties win their targets, we could end with Labour 29, NIP 23 and the Greens 14 at which point the hounds of Hell will be released (I may not be wholly correct about that but it would be fascinating to see how that result works in terms of council administration).
The energy saving and renewables program that Miliband has put in place is several times more significant than anything we have seen before.
And during the 2010s there were no offshore wind leasing rounds whatsoever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Newham_London_Borough_Council_election
AIUI his own family is Jewish in background, Mrs Starmer is of course Jewish, and that as a family they follow the Shabbat ritual on Fridays.
I think "atheist Jew" is a fair description of SKS, with the Jewish part being cultural.
Therefore it would not be a surprise to see him in a photo with someone wearing a Yamulke, or it could be an invitee to talk to cabinet. There is the occasional photo of SKS himself wearing a Yamulke in some situations, just as any person might don an item of clothing I do not normally wear in certain situations out of respect.
https://www.thejc.com/news/our-family-treasures-our-shabbat-dinners-says-keir-starmer-hrnmdcu7
The last Lib Dem Councillor on Newham was Alec Kellaway who defected dramatically to Labour during the Newham North East by-election in 1994 when Stephen Timms was first elected, defeating the Conservative Philip Hammond (whatever happened to him?).
Kellaway was a local councillor who had been re-elected the previous month (May 1994).
If I might, you have not addressed the mismatch between your desire to “restore[] the key pillars of the British constitution” and Reform’s… well, reformist constitutional offering.
And quite often once it arrives most of the things are hardly questioned. The 10p plastic bag tax has reduced use of single use plastic bags by 98% since 2015, that is 7.6 billion per annum to 133 million - does anyone complain any more? And in the last couple of years we have made significant strides in packaging, with afaics "plastic attached to card" packaging falling well away. These days I get a cardboard envelope where I always used to get Jiffy bags.
Edit - not quite, i see there was a 1991 by! Still a teen though lol
Labour's reputation is in the toilet with those that care about biodiversity, often cited as Labour's war on nature.