To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
You should get out more
I'd rather watch paint dry than watch snooker American Football is for drug addled freaks Baseball is Rounders
The one US Sport you have to watch to appreciate live is Basketball. The Knicks at MSG in the top tier full house is an incredible iccssion
Best ball sports for me Soccer in a full atmospheric older stadium not a prawn sandwich empirium Rugby Union in Cardiff Cricket Test Cricket Tennis not what it was
Athletics major events very entertaining more so indoors
Motor sports
F1 has become a joke Same engine manufacturer formulas more entertaining Moto GP Speedway Racing on occasions decent
Cycling Classics very very underrated, Tour De France a must see
Downhill Alpine best sport if all in my ipinion Biathlon live well worth a try...
Horse Racing Flat boring NH far better
Snooker's fascinating, if only for the expressions on the faces of those forced to sit and watch as their opponent clears the table. Rugby league, although I wish they'd sort out the nonsenses that are the scrums.
Agree about Test Cricket, although County Cricket, at the ground, can be highly enjoyable.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
I want a party that restores the key pillars of the British constitution, eliminates needless regulation and red tape and the quangocracy that underpins it, rescues key industries like virgin steelmaking (there is no 'Thatcherite' laissez faire way to do this and it's specious of the Tories to pretend there is), legalises fracking and provides a regulatory environment where it can flourish, unleashes the North Sea and SMRs, stands up to Chinese domination whilst we still can, and pursues the national interest vigorously at every opportunity. My preference would be for the Tories to do all this, but I don't trust them to.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Some sports are better in person... some on TV.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
1. Last year, Reform, Conservatives, and Labour were close to level-pegging. Now, Reform are 7-8% clear of them. These are FPTP elections, not PR. What matters, is beating your main rival, not what your vote share is overall.
2. Most seats being contested were last fought in 2022. The Conservatives were 29% clear of Reform, then, and Labour 34% clear. Now, they're running well behind them.
3. Local by elections point to a big win for Reform. March's contests saw:
Reform 6,145 votes (29.3%) 5 seats (+4)
Conservatives 4,233 (20.3%) 4 seats (+1)
Labour 2,744, (13.1%) 1 seat, (-2)
Lib Dems, 3,710 (17.7%) 2 seats (-2)
Green Party 3,159 (15.1%) 3 seats (+2)
Independents lost 3 seats.
One should assume that even if Steven Fisher is wrong, the number of gains for Reform will be clear of 1,200, and bet accordingly.
In the last 10 polls/fortnight before the 2025 local Elections Reform were, on average, just over 5 % points ahead of the Tories and on an increasing support trend. In the past 10 polls Reform are on average 7% points ahead of the Tories and are on a decreasing support trend They are better off against Labour than 2025 (8% ahead versus 3% ahead over same 10 polls)
But as 2025 showed there is not a direct correlation between polling and LE vote, Reform outpolled anything they had ever achieved in an opinion poll. Will they do the same with support declining? Will the Tory core stay home having seem what happened in 2025? What effect a relative weak area like London?
Theyll make 4 figure gains probably, but it wont look anywhere near as uniquely impresive as 2025
There are *a lot* of seats, in Met Boroughs and Unitary authorities, outside London, that are like Brumby, where the Labour and Conservative votes cratered on Thursday. There are 3,400 seats being fought outside London, and I think we should expect Reform to win one third to 40% of them.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
1. Last year, Reform, Conservatives, and Labour were close to level-pegging. Now, Reform are 7-8% clear of them. These are FPTP elections, not PR. What matters, is beating your main rival, not what your vote share is overall.
2. Most seats being contested were last fought in 2022. The Conservatives were 29% clear of Reform, then, and Labour 34% clear. Now, they're running well behind them.
3. Local by elections point to a big win for Reform. March's contests saw:
Reform 6,145 votes (29.3%) 5 seats (+4)
Conservatives 4,233 (20.3%) 4 seats (+1)
Labour 2,744, (13.1%) 1 seat, (-2)
Lib Dems, 3,710 (17.7%) 2 seats (-2)
Green Party 3,159 (15.1%) 3 seats (+2)
Independents lost 3 seats.
One should assume that even if Steven Fisher is wrong, the number of gains for Reform will be clear of 1,200, and bet accordingly.
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
I want a party that restores the key pillars of the British constitution, eliminates needless regulation and red tape and the quangocracy that underpins it, rescues key industries like virgin steelmaking (there is no 'Thatcherite' laissez faire way to do this and it's specious of the Tories to pretend there is), legalises fracking and provides a regulatory environment where it can flourish, unleashes the North Sea and SMRs, stands up to Chinese domination whilst we still can, and pursues the national interest vigorously at every opportunity. My preference would be for the Tories to do all this, but I don't trust them to.
That doesn't appear to fit Reform UK that well. Reform UK favour reform and change to the constitution,e.g. introducing PR, creating a new Bill of Rights, abolishing the House of Lords, and replacing civil servants with political appointees. Fracking was not mentioned in their 2024 manifesto, although they do like SMRs. I don't hear Reform talking about China much (zero mentions in the 2024 manifesto) and how much they would pursue the national interest is questionable, given we've seen Reform politicians being bought by Russia. Reform's priorities are around immigration, deportations, restricting Islam and reversing smoking laws.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Some sports are better in person... some on TV.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
Cricket is far easier to follow on your telly than in person, particularly if you are sat square of the wicket. Yet a day at the cricket is one of my biggest pleasures. The joy of being there more than compensates for the worse view. Golf is even harder to watch in person - you can only ever see 1/18th of the action at most. And yet being there is a joy.
I'm a big fan of these two women. I'm not sure everyone will know their targets though Eric Kirk is certainly in the firing line. Anyway i enjoy their humanity and enthusiasm.....
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
To answer the question upthread about who would be preferred out of the Tories and Reform, I believe a Refcon coalition is the likeliest outcome, and I would prefer it to be a Reform-led coalition. My preference list (within the narrow options presented) is: 1. Reform-led Refcon 2. Reform maj 3. Tory-led Refcon 4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
What is the energy of Reform? Energy to do what? Copy Donald Trump at every opportunity?
I want a party that restores the key pillars of the British constitution, eliminates needless regulation and red tape and the quangocracy that underpins it, rescues key industries like virgin steelmaking (there is no 'Thatcherite' laissez faire way to do this and it's specious of the Tories to pretend there is), legalises fracking and provides a regulatory environment where it can flourish, unleashes the North Sea and SMRs, stands up to Chinese domination whilst we still can, and pursues the national interest vigorously at every opportunity. My preference would be for the Tories to do all this, but I don't trust them to.
I thought red tape and regulation was one of the key pillars of the British constitution, going all the way back to the Assize of Bread and Ale from 1266.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Some sports are better in person... some on TV.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
Cricket is far easier to follow on your telly than in person, particularly if you are sat square of the wicket. Yet a day at the cricket is one of my biggest pleasures. The joy of being there more than compensates for the worse view. Golf is even harder to watch in person - you can only ever see 1/18th of the action at most. And yet being there is a joy.
I will only go to a cricket game if I can be behind the stumps. Otherwise you simnply have no idea what's going on.
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Some sports are better in person... some on TV.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
Cricket is far easier to follow on your telly than in person, particularly if you are sat square of the wicket. Yet a day at the cricket is one of my biggest pleasures. The joy of being there more than compensates for the worse view. Golf is even harder to watch in person - you can only ever see 1/18th of the action at most. And yet being there is a joy.
I will only go to a cricket game if I can be behind the stumps. Otherwise you simnply have no idea what's going on.
That's a fearful thing to say. I'll go so far as to say you are wicket.
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
I'm a big fan of these two women. I'm not sure everyone will know their targets though Eric Kirk is certainly in the firing line. Anyway i enjoy their humanity and enthusiasm.....
1. Last year, Reform, Conservatives, and Labour were close to level-pegging. Now, Reform are 7-8% clear of them. These are FPTP elections, not PR. What matters, is beating your main rival, not what your vote share is overall.
2. Most seats being contested were last fought in 2022. The Conservatives were 29% clear of Reform, then, and Labour 34% clear. Now, they're running well behind them.
3. Local by elections point to a big win for Reform. March's contests saw:
Reform 6,145 votes (29.3%) 5 seats (+4)
Conservatives 4,233 (20.3%) 4 seats (+1)
Labour 2,744, (13.1%) 1 seat, (-2)
Lib Dems, 3,710 (17.7%) 2 seats (-2)
Green Party 3,159 (15.1%) 3 seats (+2)
Independents lost 3 seats.
One should assume that even if Steven Fisher is wrong, the number of gains for Reform will be clear of 1,200, and bet accordingly.
In the last 10 polls/fortnight before the 2025 local Elections Reform were, on average, just over 5 % points ahead of the Tories and on an increasing support trend. In the past 10 polls Reform are on average 7% points ahead of the Tories and are on a decreasing support trend They are better off against Labour than 2025 (8% ahead versus 3% ahead over same 10 polls)
But as 2025 showed there is not a direct correlation between polling and LE vote, Reform outpolled anything they had ever achieved in an opinion poll. Will they do the same with support declining? Will the Tory core stay home having seem what happened in 2025? What effect a relative weak area like London?
Theyll make 4 figure gains probably, but it wont look anywhere near as uniquely impresive as 2025
There are *a lot* of seats, in Met Boroughs and Unitary authorities, outside London, that are like Brumby, where the Labour and Conservative votes cratered on Thursday. There are 3,400 seats being fought outside London, and I think we should expect Reform to win one third to 40% of them.
Yes, they'll win a lot of seats. But 33% outside London plus maybe 150 in London will see them just about come first on wards won overall. Thats a far less dominant performance than 2025, which was my point. And the worse Labour do, the more the Tories will to a certain extent ameliorate their own poor night picking up some gains imo rather than suffering an equal decline to Labour as Fisher suggests
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
They will get slightly different answers, because LLMs insert randomness via "temperature".
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Surely any sport is exciting if you are invested in the result? I'm not a sports fan, I enjoy watching my son's U17 team playing football on a Sunday and I can get into international football tournaments and that's about it. I used to enjoy cricket but have lost interest in it as I've got older. Snooker was good in the 1980s. Cars driving round in circles, posh versions of football and anthing played primarily by Americans leave me cold. I have a deep loathing for golf having grown up in St Andrews.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
Some sports are better in person... some on TV.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
I love NFL nearly as much as I love football and I fucking love football. However, I think you can only truly appreciate it with a deep understanding of the tactics and the immensely complex meta-game of the salary cap and draft system.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
If Labour came back to win most seats though, holding 120 seats with maybe a couple of Tory gains from Labour in West London and patches of the home counties might be enough for the Tories to keep second, just ahead of Reform
A Belarusian blogger used AI to fake a scene of people with white-red-white flags in central Minsk—and sent it to police. Within minutes, three armed police vehicles rushed to the location. Of course, no one was there. Officers kept searching imaginary dissent.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
Yes, I'm still on board but deeply unenthusiastic because the party is just so meh.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
Maybe the same answer, maybe not. Maybe not.
The point of the discussion about the books is that it is possible to get the LLMs to kick out quite accurate chunks of books. With a small amount of extra work, re-assemble the books. By using multiple, overlapping chunks, the accuracy is much improved.
For extra fun, they have also revealed that pirate copies of books were used to train the LLM in the first place.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
I am the God of Labour insight. I’ve been saying Sir Keir will see out 2026 for a while.
I agree. There is no mechanism by which he can be ejected, and no self-awareness by which he will resign.
I think he'll survive the year too however there is an ejection mechanism. 81 Labour MPs saying in writing that they want a specific person to replace him triggers a contest.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
Yes, I'm still on board but deeply unenthusiastic because the party is just so meh.
As I keep saying, the reluctance of the Lib Dems to do anything is understandable but weird, and might come back to bite them. As the by-elections this week showed, they aren't the anti-Tory anti-Reform votedump they were, and the Greens are eating their lunch. Being moderately moderate in moderation (do nothing and do it as much as possible) may sound good in theory, but the foundations are being eaten away...
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
I expect many Reform voters aren’t even aware of this. The media have never even brought this issue up . I have little confidence they’ll even bother in the run up to the next GE . They’re too busy telling everyone they’re a government in waiting .
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
There is an interesting insight buried in there: his claim that too many of the candidates are ex-Tories.
This lies at the heart of Farage's monomania: destroying the Tories. It is why he wil take in any old defector, no matter how much that taints Reform. He is not interested in appealing to ex-Labour voters. The Tories have slighted him - and must pay for it with their very existence.
As Reform slide down the polls, the idea of either doing any deal with the other will crash and burn. Which will make it all the easier for Kemi to be believed when she goes into the next election saying "No deals".
Reform in London. There have been 10 by elections in London since LE 25. Reform have won one in Bromley by 5%. This was near the apex of their polling and the nadir of the second placed Tories (i expect Bromley Common to be a toss up this time) Theyve been nowhere close to winning any others, coming second once in Barnet but 17% back. They will make gains but bear the above in mind when setting your own expectations of the overall picture (1800 of the 5200 wards are in London)
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
The mechanism is used for the government. And you won’t get Reform MPs voting to bring their own government down.
That’s Iranian propaganda and misinformation so you should really post it. It’s well done though, I’ll give them that
Indeed. The laundry fire story is seemingly bullshit though as the Ford doesn't have a laundry that could catch fire that way, precisely to avoid this situation.
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
There is an interesting insight buried in there: his claim that too many of the candidates are ex-Tories.
This lies at the heart of Farage's monomania: destroying the Tories. It is why he wil take in any old defector, no matter how much that taints Reform. He is not interested in appealing to ex-Labour voters. The Tories have slighted him - and must pay for it with their very existence.
As Reform slide down the polls, the idea of either doing any deal with the other will crash and burn. Which will make it all the easier for Kemi to be believed when she goes into the next election saying "No deals".
Im hoping he gets to a position he comes begging for a deal and gets told to go fuck himself. Alas i think i wont get that pleasure
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
You should get out more
I'd rather watch paint dry than watch snooker American Football is for drug addled freaks Baseball is Rounders
The one US Sport you have to watch to appreciate live is Basketball. The Knicks at MSG in the top tier full house is an incredible iccssion
Best ball sports for me Soccer in a full atmospheric older stadium not a prawn sandwich empirium Rugby Union in Cardiff Cricket Test Cricket Tennis not what it was
Athletics major events very entertaining more so indoors
Motor sports
F1 has become a joke Same engine manufacturer formulas more entertaining Moto GP Speedway Racing on occasions decent
Cycling Classics very very underrated, Tour De France a must see
Downhill Alpine best sport if all in my ipinion Biathlon live well worth a try...
Horse Racing Flat boring NH far better
Snooker's fascinating, if only for the expressions on the faces of those forced to sit and watch as their opponent clears the table. Rugby league, although I wish they'd sort out the nonsenses that are the scrums.
Agree about Test Cricket, although County Cricket, at the ground, can be highly enjoyable.
County Cricket at places like Worcester and Taunton is a joy.
At concrete bowls like Edgbaston and Trent Bridge less so
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
The mechanism is used for the government. And you won’t get Reform MPs voting to bring their own government down.
Then they would pay with their seats at the next GE
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
Maybe the same answer, maybe not. Maybe not.
The point of the discussion about the books is that it is possible to get the LLMs to kick out quite accurate chunks of books. With a small amount of extra work, re-assemble the books. By using multiple, overlapping chunks, the accuracy is much improved.
For extra fun, they have also revealed that pirate copies of books were used to train the LLM in the first place.
I've been reading Ian McEwan's "What We can Know". Terrific book. But about halfway through I was losing track of the various characters and their relationships with one another. So I asked Gemini for help. It wanted to know how far into the book I was, as it didn't want to reveal spoilers. Very thoughtful of it. It had read the book.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
The LibDems are the political wing of the Waitrose loyalty scheme.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I agree with you thus: No-one has any idea what the GE outcome will be; and it's possible that seats will be won on very low numbers. However elections are fought and voted on before we know how odd the result will be. What it does not change is this: that as things stand there will be a lot of tactical voting, some will succeed in ousting an unwanted (often Reform) person that 30 something % want and 50 something % don't.
To some extent the pattern of tactical voting can be predicted, as axiomatically it is about diverse groups coalescing around something because of rational considerations. If that doesn't happen, it isn't tactical voting. Working out the rational considerations is itself a rational exercise.
At this moment I suggest a probability that a lot of tactical coalescing in England will be in favour of Labour (and LDs in up to 100 seats). Scotland and Wales are different, but tactical voting will still happen. Greens will fall away over time as consideration is given to the priority of 'Stop Reform'. The Tories have an impossible task as a vote for them is neither a vote for Reform nor against them as things stand so to vote for them is neither tactical nor government forming, the two things the election will be about.
There's a long way to go and plenty of time for it all to change. By 2029 we may all be voting tactically for Reform because no-one else can beat Labour. But I doubt it.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
The LibDems are the political wing of the Waitrose loyalty scheme.
I'm OK with that. At least you get a better quality hummus.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
The LibDems are the political wing of the Waitrose loyalty scheme.
Very funny ! I love Waitrose . Such a civilised way to shop without screaming out of control children and the ill fitting leggings brigade .
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
That's interesting. Why do you think she's a more attractive leader than Cleverly? Also as a non Tory the only possible Tory leader I could think of voting for is Cleverly and that's because I saw him on Newsnight a while ago and he was genuinely funny. Something Kemi is not!
It was the date rape drugging the wife joke that you heard, wasn’t it?
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
"Necessity" or "Manifest Destiny" or "Gathering of the Russian Lands" or similar slogans are usually covers for ethnic cleansing or genocide of one type or another, and should be regarded as such.
I am the God of Labour insight. I’ve been saying Sir Keir will see out 2026 for a while.
I agree. There is no mechanism by which he can be ejected, and no self-awareness by which he will resign.
I think he'll survive the year too however there is an ejection mechanism. 81 Labour MPs saying in writing that they want a specific person to replace him triggers a contest.
Why would he resign
Who in any Party right now with so many Global issues at the fore, where he has performed very well, would do a better job.
Certainly none of the other Party Leaders, two of whom would have us at war, two of whom would have us walk out of any negotiation room and none really in Labour who could do a better job on international stage.
I am the God of Labour insight. I’ve been saying Sir Keir will see out 2026 for a while.
I agree. There is no mechanism by which he can be ejected, and no self-awareness by which he will resign.
I think he'll survive the year too however there is an ejection mechanism. 81 Labour MPs saying in writing that they want a specific person to replace him triggers a contest.
Why would he resign
Who in any Party right now with so many Global issues at the fore, where he has performed very well, would do a better job.
Certainly none of the other Party Leaders, two of whom would have us at war, two of whom would have us walk out of any negotiation room and none really in Labour who could do a better job on international stage.
He'll make a great Foreign Secretary. And he'll enjoy it more.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
I am the God of Labour insight. I’ve been saying Sir Keir will see out 2026 for a while.
I agree. There is no mechanism by which he can be ejected, and no self-awareness by which he will resign.
I think he'll survive the year too however there is an ejection mechanism. 81 Labour MPs saying in writing that they want a specific person to replace him triggers a contest.
Why would he resign
Who in any Party right now with so many Global issues at the fore, where he has performed very well, would do a better job.
Certainly none of the other Party Leaders, two of whom would have us at war, two of whom would have us walk out of any negotiation room and none really in Labour who could do a better job on international stage.
Keirmit is the obvious leader in this Muppet Show Cabinet
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
Reform in London. There have been 10 by elections in London since LE 25. Reform have won one in Bromley by 5%. This was near the apex of their polling and the nadir of the second placed Tories (i expect Bromley Common to be a toss up this time) Theyve been nowhere close to winning any others, coming second once in Barnet but 17% back. They will make gains but bear the above in mind when setting your own expectations of the overall picture (1800 of the 5200 wards are in London)
I expect Reform to take control of Bexley though and have an outside chance of being largest party in Barking and Dagenham and Havering
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
Which makes some of us wonder how long this can hold together.
I am the God of Labour insight. I’ve been saying Sir Keir will see out 2026 for a while.
I agree. There is no mechanism by which he can be ejected, and no self-awareness by which he will resign.
I think he'll survive the year too however there is an ejection mechanism. 81 Labour MPs saying in writing that they want a specific person to replace him triggers a contest.
Why would he resign
Who in any Party right now with so many Global issues at the fore, where he has performed very well, would do a better job.
Certainly none of the other Party Leaders, two of whom would have us at war, two of whom would have us walk out of any negotiation room and none really in Labour who could do a better job on international stage.
Keirmit is the obvious leader in this Muppet Show Cabinet
I listened to Any Questions and it was quite a revelation. They had a chacter on called Darren Grimes who I gathered as the programme went on was a Faragist. To say he was thick would only cover one of his most obvious faults and would be an insult to the other three female panellists.
Early on while I was listening I decided I would change my voting habit of a lifetime and vote Green. But every time Grimes opened his mouth it was clear that wasn't watertight I would have to vote for WHOEVER was most likely to keep Grimes out!
I still can't get over it. Doesn't Farage have any say who is going to appear as Reform's representative?
Farage can't do every political gig, and everyone else in the Reform leadership is rubbish at hiding their awfulness.
Isn't Farage boycotting the BBC?
Boycotting the BBC possibly, in this instance, means not appearing on EVERY BBC discussion programme.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
Reform in London. There have been 10 by elections in London since LE 25. Reform have won one in Bromley by 5%. This was near the apex of their polling and the nadir of the second placed Tories (i expect Bromley Common to be a toss up this time) Theyve been nowhere close to winning any others, coming second once in Barnet but 17% back. They will make gains but bear the above in mind when setting your own expectations of the overall picture (1800 of the 5200 wards are in London)
I expect Reform to take control of Bexley though and have an outside chance of being largest party in Barking and Dagenham and Havering
Yeah certainly possible. Gains, but limited in nature compared to outside. Theyll end up with a similar number of councillors to the LDs in London I think
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
Anyone on the left will be feeling like a total mug if they vote Conservative to keep Reform out and then see their Tory MP filing into the same lobby as PM Farage for the next five years.
Vote Blue, Get Turquoise.
This may well prove a major Tory problem, and there is only one route out of it that I can see.
Labour hold 400 seats, so are the most obvious tactical 'Not Reform' choice. In up to 100 seats where LDs are Labour's proxy, LD is the obvious tactical choice. The Tories are not the first tactical choice beyond their 120 seats, and in those they will only be so if they are committed to opposing Reform AND voters believe them.
Their one and only route out is to be so brilliant for the next two years, and have some luck, that the polling shifts to the Tories being nicely ahead of Reform. Then and only then, the question reverses. You don't ask the Tories if they will back Reform; you ask Reform if they will back the Tories. Tory problem solved.
You then vote Tory because you want a Centre Right government. This outcome is unlikely.
OK...
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
I'm trying to think of various proxies for 'propensity to vote Green'.
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat - seats where LDs are not 2nd - higher public sector employment rates - younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
I think that's quite, likely, albeit I'd put the LDs 20 seats higher: they are fortunate that their seats are almost all Con v LD, with (outside the South West) Reform some way behind. And as the Conservative vote share is down sharply on 2024, I can't seen them gaining many seats from the LDs.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
That’s also not true, the books themselves aren’t sitting inside ChatGPT. It’s been given a set of training data that contains these books (I assume) and it has been trained on the basis of them.
The information in those books in inside the LLM. All of it. And can be retrieved, as has been demonstrated multiple times.
An amusing riff - write a prompt to get one LLM to tease out the large chunks of a given work from another LLM and reassemble them.
I don’t believe you are correct as I’ve said.
It has “learned” from a set of training data containing the books. And it has derived information from said data. But that’s not the same as just having the books.
It will still hallucinate and make up things that aren’t there. You cannot trust it to just blurt out a novel without very careful checking. Because it is probabilistic (something I wish the very worst rampers would understand), it CANNOT accurately represent a novel accurately and consistently.
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
Maybe the same answer, maybe not. Maybe not.
The point of the discussion about the books is that it is possible to get the LLMs to kick out quite accurate chunks of books. With a small amount of extra work, re-assemble the books. By using multiple, overlapping chunks, the accuracy is much improved.
For extra fun, they have also revealed that pirate copies of books were used to train the LLM in the first place.
N'ah, they're just revealing that Harry Potter is so derivative, it's possible for an LLM to generate huge chunks of it with barely any effort at all.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
They're not, but they can deal with that when they've got their preferred policies passed.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
VoNC in parliament would oust him if the party wanted him gone
It certainly would, but as Labour hold 400 seats and no alternative government is at hand, General Election it would be, in which Labour would lose about 350 of them. 'It's nip and tuck at Bootle. Too close to call in Manchester Central'.
I was referring to Reform ousting PM Farage if he went rogue (as there is no ltd company mechanism to do it)
They may however oust PM Farage by defecting from his party enmasse, then a VONC, either to Restore, Con or Independent.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
Thars what i said. VONC. No need to defect, Chuck the third sends for whomever Reform have confidence in
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
That was rather my point.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
Local elections skew older in demographics so there’s reason to think the Greens might under perform.
If age is the key factor, that suggests Fash and Con do better than expected.
Tories are certainly hoping their older vote turns out this year after having an early lunch and a long nap last year. The old dears round here in North Norfolk are being herded with my prodding devices
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
That was rather my point.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
Young voters are more likely to be double registered that more senior voters. By law you can only vote for one election at one place where there are multiple elections on the same day. But, because local councils are so fragmented it would be unlikely many double registered voters would have voting in both places they are registered. I know most universities register all their students as a matter of course, as generally they should. but it looks better for the uni. Oh, look all those students. But not all students will want to vote there but would only want to vote at their real home.
This is never taken account of when considering percentage turnouts. This used ot be most spectacular at Catterick in N Yorks where all the squaddies on the electoral role have moved elsewhere by the time of the election. That also messed up the warding of the old Richmondshire District Council, probably still does for North Yorks.
Reform isn’t a proper democratic political party and the media just seem to ignore the fact that Farage couldn’t be ousted as leader even if he shot someone .
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
Reform is essentially the political wing of private equity. It's not a real party.
The LibDems are the political wing of the Waitrose loyalty scheme.
I'm OK with that. At least you get a better quality hummus.
The best of the supermarket hummous is the Sabra one. It is made in Israel, but so good that I buy it most weeks.
I'll pose a question for those who will know a lot more than I.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
All good questions, and the only fairly sure thing is that very large numbers of young people won't vote. I don't know of any reason to think this will change.
That turnout factor is built into the pollsters modelling and predictions already is it not?
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
In inner city areas like Gorton where the population is younger on average then yes it could see bigger than expected Green gains from Labour. I don't expect many Green gains outside the inner cities and some university towns though
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
As a committed pro-semite (I'm technically Jewish and I was brought up on accounts of the horrors of 30s Germany and the necessity of Israel), I've really had enough of Netanyahu and current Israeli policy, and that doesn't make me an anti-semite. Obviously burning Jewish ambulances is both wrong and stupid, but I don't think that being critical of Israeli policy qualifies at all.
Netanyahu has done more for anti-semitism than anyone could have expected.
"the necessity of Israel" - maybe it's because I'm not Jewish, but I've never understood how a genocide on one continent, however appalling, legitimises subsequent ethnic cleansing of a group of people completely innocent of that crime in another. Nor how moving to a country surrounded by enemies who are committed to destroying you makes you much safer.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
Israel is majority Jewish though and the only Jewish majority nation on earth, so a homeland Jews will always defend as their only sure sanctuary.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
Israel undermined itself as a Jewish homeland by annexing territory from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Including populations in occupied territories. Israel is now an Arab majority country.
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.
Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policies
And that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agenda
What utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anyway
Cleverly is a donkey with no charisma
As I am not a Tory I would be delighted if Kemi was replaced, especially by Cleverly, as it will reduce the number of seats they will win.
Kemi is currently projected to win about 50 to 70 seats, tactical anti Reform votes could hold more Tory seats
Am I the only person on the left who would rather see a ReFukker elected than a Tory?
Short term pain for long term gain.
I can understand you take the line you would vote Reform over the Kemi led Tories. Would you still vote Reform over even a Cleverly led Tories?
Yes. Destroying the Conservatives as a political force is the objective, regardless of leader.
Reform would then destroy themselves.
And the right of centre voters coalesce around a new project. Or the uber right populists swoop in. The desire to crush socialists and communists wont go away just because the branding does.
Or the LibDems become the mainstream alternative to Labour, and everything further right is the political fringe.
No-one from the LibDems seems to want to replace Davey. Yet, anyway.
They've flatlined in national polling. They are giving ti achieve nothing in Scotland and Wales.
If they don't make sizable gains in England in May then it could be time for Daisy to pounce.
I’m not certain Daisy has a fundamentally different view as to how the LibDems should operate in this new political climate to Davey. A new leader would garner some publicity, but I don’t think voters are going to flock to the LibDems just because it’s Cooper rather than Davey in charge.
The party has built a brand as the sensible, grown up ones. Now, before Taz has conniptions I appreciate that’s not how they’re seen by many politicos, but that’s their brand nonetheless.
Therefore a calm, friendly succession process to Daisy when the time is right, with some cheerful competition in the leadership election, would be the most on-brand approach.
The right time is probably either 6-12 months before the next election, or immediately after but from a position of, hopefully, a solid Westminster seat count.
There's nothing wrong as such with Davey's boring centre-left centrism with a pro-Europe, anti-Trumo tilt.
It's just that wholly unambitious as a platform.
I fear the Lib Dems have been so successful in socially liberal, middle class ex-Tory seats that they have embedded that small-c conservatism into their ethos.
I would rather the party embraced more 'radical centrism' with ideas for reforms that go beyond spending a bit more money here or there. That could be stealing the Green's clothes and being the party of the environment and renewables. Or making a bigger thing of marijuana legalisation policy. Or being the party of housebuilding given how much Labour has failed there. Or any number of other things given more than 2 minutes thought.
We're at a time of unprecedented shift in the British political landscape and the Lib Dems just seem to be a side show clinging onto their 70-80 seats with no voice in the national political debate. I think it's worth rolling the dice and seeing if a new leader can make themselves heard.
LD voters are mostly Nimbys now so they won’t be the party of mass house building. The Greens are already the party of marijuana legalisation and net zero, Labour under Ed Miliband also the latter and for solar panels everywhere
The Greens are now the River to the Sea party.
Excuse me:
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
I don't think the River to the Sea lads are too keen on LGBT+.
That was rather my point.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
Hope you're all enjoying the beginning of the cricket season. IPL just started
Most boring "sport" in the world!
You make this point often Sunil. I disagree. I rank sports, from most to least exciting, thus: Rugby union Cricket Golf (but only the Ryder Cup) American Football Rugby League Athletics Snooker Ice Hockey Football (unless I amwatching a game my daughter is playing) Basketball Formula One Tennis
You should get out more
I'd rather watch paint dry than watch snooker American Football is for drug addled freaks Baseball is Rounders
The one US Sport you have to watch to appreciate live is Basketball. The Knicks at MSG in the top tier full house is an incredible iccssion
Best ball sports for me Soccer in a full atmospheric older stadium not a prawn sandwich empirium Rugby Union in Cardiff Cricket Test Cricket Tennis not what it was
Athletics major events very entertaining more so indoors
Motor sports
F1 has become a joke Same engine manufacturer formulas more entertaining Moto GP Speedway Racing on occasions decent
Cycling Classics very very underrated, Tour De France a must see
Downhill Alpine best sport if all in my ipinion Biathlon live well worth a try...
Horse Racing Flat boring NH far better
Downhill skiing I totally agree with but it falls into the category for me of things I’ve done well but are minority and not generally crowd sports where there is a lot more to it than simply the game.
I love football, rugby (both codes) and international cricket - I still l prefer sitting outside in the summer listening to the ashes than watching them but I am weird. I do like NFL a lot but am not as emotionally invested - for some reason I love the games around Christmas played in the snow.
Then there are minority sports I’ve played to a high level where I am invested purely because I’ve played and loved it.
Fencing, Waterpolo and hockey, three day eventing - I can watch as a critic or ex participant where I can truly get the skills and tactics required where I can’t with other minority sports.
Downhill skiing though is the one, apart from fencing, I would love to be able to win Olympic gold. Every run I’ve done in my life has been about trying to go as fast as my body and balance can handle and am in awe of those who go in the Olympics.
Comments
https://www.flightradar24.com/RFF802/3ef4c0b2
1. Reform-led Refcon
2. Reform maj
3. Tory-led Refcon
4. Tory maj
Kemi is fond of picking fights, but there's also a bit of weakness and willingness to go with the flow there, as shown by her patchy Ministerial record. A Tory maj scenario would be better than what we have now, but arrogance, complacency, backstabbing briefings, shadowy cabals and Lib Dems in blue rosettes would soon rear their ugly heads and things would diminish fairly rapidly.
Tories but needing Reform would treat Reform like the hired help, and the same as the above would be true but less so.
Reform maj would have good intentions but very little experience of the system.
Ref-led Refcon has the experience of the Tories, but yoked to the energy of Reform.
Rugby league, although I wish they'd sort out the nonsenses that are the scrums.
Agree about Test Cricket, although County Cricket, at the ground, can be highly enjoyable.
They're the River to the Sea, pro-Trans Rights, Party.
American Football is pretty rubbish in person. Basketball, by contrast, is amazing in person because you are so near the action. You really feel the physicality of the players, because -even in average seats- you're usually no more than 10 or 12 meters from the court.
But I still maintain they are not strong enough at this stage to win a majority.
Golf is even harder to watch in person - you can only ever see 1/18th of the action at most. And yet being there is a joy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea1c8WwEfNk
So this is mostly true.
But if the next election has five parties within 11 points of each other (25 to 14), then there are going to be some seats won on very low vote shares. It's not impossible that -in Scotland, for example- a seat could be won on as little as 18 or 19% of the vote.
We also don't really know how efficiently distributed the various vote shares are. Because the Greens are coming from (practically) nowhere, UNS is adding 15 percentage points to them everywhere. But that might not be accurate at all. Their vote might be extremely diffuse, or extremely concentrated, or somewhere in between.
Reform candidate for Swansea in the upcoming Welsh elections steps down.
Very strong statement.
"Politics is a dirty game, but Reform has sunk deep into the sewer when it should have been a beacon of decency."
This tallies with what many long-term Reform members have been telling me for some time regarding frustration at what they see as an increasingly dictatorial style from Farage and those close to him.
These are the people Reform are going to need to be out knocking doors over the next six weeks.
https://x.com/WillHayCardiff/status/2037912746260336749?s=20
I don't know the answer to this question, but...is it? I mean if two different people asked the same question simultaneously from two nearby terminals, would they get a different answer back or the same?
And the worse Labour do, the more the Tories will to a certain extent ameliorate their own poor night picking up some gains imo rather than suffering an equal decline to Labour as Fisher suggests
I'll get my coat...
https://x.com/franakviacorka/status/2037840993446195436
A Belarusian blogger used AI to fake a scene of people with white-red-white flags in central Minsk—and sent it to police.
Within minutes, three armed police vehicles rushed to the location. Of course, no one was there. Officers kept searching imaginary dissent.
Unless there’s a major change in the structure of the party then he could end up as PM and literally could do anything and there’s no way of removing him .
So far I've come up with:
- more urban seat
- seats where LDs are not 2nd
- higher public sector employment rates
- younger demographic
In short, they're going to destroy Labour in the cities, the uni towns, and probably take enough of their votes in the SE coastal towns to deprive them of a route to being the clear opposition.
I really could see something like horrendous like
Ref: 250
Lab: 95
Con: 95
Green: 75
LD: 55
SNP: 35
Others: 45
The point of the discussion about the books is that it is possible to get the LLMs to kick out quite accurate chunks of books. With a small amount of extra work, re-assemble the books. By using multiple, overlapping chunks, the accuracy is much improved.
For extra fun, they have also revealed that pirate copies of books were used to train the LLM in the first place.
This lies at the heart of Farage's monomania: destroying the Tories. It is why he wil take in any old defector, no matter how much that taints Reform. He is not interested in appealing to ex-Labour voters. The Tories have slighted him - and must pay for it with their very existence.
As Reform slide down the polls, the idea of either doing any deal with the other will crash and burn. Which will make it all the easier for Kemi to be believed when she goes into the next election saying "No deals".
There have been 10 by elections in London since LE 25. Reform have won one in Bromley by 5%. This was near the apex of their polling and the nadir of the second placed Tories (i expect Bromley Common to be a toss up this time)
Theyve been nowhere close to winning any others, coming second once in Barnet but 17% back.
They will make gains but bear the above in mind when setting your own expectations of the overall picture (1800 of the 5200 wards are in London)
My speculation - only speculation - is a mutiny or something close to it.
PURPLE AND GREEN! YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE!
At concrete bowls like Edgbaston and Trent Bridge less so
But about halfway through I was losing track of the various characters and their relationships with one another.
So I asked Gemini for help. It wanted to know how far into the book I was, as it didn't want to reveal spoilers.
Very thoughtful of it.
It had read the book.
The Aubergine vote
To some extent the pattern of tactical voting can be predicted, as axiomatically it is about diverse groups coalescing around something because of rational considerations. If that doesn't happen, it isn't tactical voting. Working out the rational considerations is itself a rational exercise.
At this moment I suggest a probability that a lot of tactical coalescing in England will be in favour of Labour (and LDs in up to 100 seats). Scotland and Wales are different, but tactical voting will still happen. Greens will fall away over time as consideration is given to the priority of 'Stop Reform'. The Tories have an impossible task as a vote for them is neither a vote for Reform nor against them as things stand so to vote for them is neither tactical nor government forming, the two things the election will be about.
There's a long way to go and plenty of time for it all to change. By 2029 we may all be voting tactically for Reform because no-one else can beat Labour. But I doubt it.
As a lot of the Green vote share is under 25,many in education, University, part time possibly seasonal work.
Living in one place, legally registered but also resident and on voters roll with parents.
Does this suggest that Green vote share could be underrated or overrated or is it accurate.
The bigger question is where their vote is registered and how much the date of a GE could impact on the efficacy of the vote and how tactical will they be in deciding which seat to vote in, uni or home.
In a very tight race that could be significant.
It reminds me a little of the logic of a white South African family friend who told me in Cape Town a few years ago that he had fled from Britain in 1970 (then 1% black) to South Africa (80% black) to avoid the Rivers of Blood and the black man's whip hand that Enoch Powell had forecast. He could clearly only find the safety he craved with systematic oppression of the indigenous majority, and, anyway, it probably wouldn't work in the long run.
"Necessity" or "Manifest Destiny" or "Gathering of the Russian Lands" or similar slogans are usually covers for ethnic cleansing or genocide of one type or another, and should be regarded as such.
Who in any Party right now with so many Global issues at the fore, where he has performed very well, would do a better job.
Certainly none of the other Party Leaders, two of whom would have us at war, two of whom would have us walk out of any negotiation room and none really in Labour who could do a better job on international stage.
And he'll enjoy it more.
South Africa has never been majority white but there are plenty of majority white nations on earth still and in most of Eastern Europe it is still almost 100% white
https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html
Boycotting the BBC possibly, in this instance, means not appearing on EVERY BBC discussion programme.
In Gorton and Denton they turned out it seems. If pollsters are underestimating Green voters likelihood to turn out then it could be entertaining indeed.
Indeed I would anticipate just such a fiasco if a Reform majority government.
The Greens are full of people who care passionately about trans rights (in the UK), and about Gaza.
The old dears round here in North Norfolk are being herded with my prodding devices
We also love LGBT…
This is never taken account of when considering percentage turnouts. This used ot be most spectacular at Catterick in N Yorks where all the squaddies on the electoral role have moved elsewhere by the time of the election. That also messed up the warding of the old Richmondshire District Council, probably still does for North Yorks.
I love football, rugby (both codes) and international cricket - I still l prefer sitting outside in the summer listening to the ashes than watching them but I am weird. I do like NFL a lot but am not as emotionally invested - for some reason I love the games around Christmas played in the snow.
Then there are minority sports I’ve played to a high level where I am invested purely because I’ve played and loved it.
Fencing, Waterpolo and hockey, three day eventing - I can watch as a critic or ex participant where I can truly get the skills and tactics required where I can’t with other minority sports.
Downhill skiing though is the one, apart from fencing, I would love to be able to win Olympic gold. Every run I’ve done in my life has been about trying to go as fast as my body and balance can handle and am in awe of those who go in the Olympics.