Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
Peron still has legions of devout followers - multiple declared after it being proven with mathematical exactitude how crap he was for Argentina.
Cultists gotta cult.
It's dipping to new lows though. I expect he's beginning to lose some of the MAGA base now, which wouldn't have reckoned on a foreign war adventure or hike in the price of a gallon. The world can go to hell in a handcart as long as they don't have to stop using their gas guzzlers.
I can see approval dropping below 40%, at which point even the GOP might start to develop a spine.
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
Operators from @1usc_army, alongside the broader Defense Forces, struck the Kirishi Oil Refinery (KINEF) — a core link feeding Ust-Luga and Primorsk export ports.
From crude to processing to shipment, the chain is being systematically degraded. Less production, unstable exports, shrinking cash flow for war.
Incidentally, the success of this attack seems to have really discombobulated Russia's online fans with lots of them accusing Putin of being too weak.
Interesting article Rochdale, but you can't have it both ways. It can't be bad that Ref/Green will fall away AND bad that Lab/Con will remain, surely?
Yes, you can. None of them are any good. None offer solutions to our problems. None are even willing to acknowledge the extent of the our problems because it would cause problems with their "solutions" and make them incoherent.
I remember Thatcher and her 1979 government. We were in serious trouble. Unions were willing to destroy businesses rather than compromise about what was needed to boost productivity. Management was arrogant, patronising and frankly under skilled. More and more of our economy was subject to the public sector mindset, more focused on those that worked for the business than their customers. Changing this was hard, brutal at times, but (with a lot of help from the proceeds of North Sea oil) it worked.
Where is the current Thatcherite solution? Not in any of our politicians, that is for sure.
My tentative suggestions are that we need a repeat of 1980s deregulation. We need to massively cut back on the regulatory state, many of these regulatory bodies should be completely eliminated. We need to protect businesses from their intrusions and allow them to get on with making money. This will make running businesses from here more attractive but we need to do more, giving generous tax allowances for investment both in kit and training. We need to admire and not want to tear down those who want to make money. We need them. We need the jobs that they create. We need the taxes they will pay and we need to accept that some of them will be chancers and wide boys taking advantage. That's ok and we need to not get too het up about it.
I don't see anyone offering anything like this. I don't see anyone who has anything like a workable solution at all.
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
A relatively easy brief and a good but not combatively hostile interviewer.
Healey was mediocre on today as well, 2 or 3 weeks ago Darren Jones negotiated a predicably hostile Barnett on Today pretty easily.
Of the post-Brown era potential candidates Darren Jones is the most capable imo, but I'd expect an older candidate if Starmer is replaced.
Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
Peron still has legions of devout followers - multiple declared after it being proven with mathematical exactitude how crap he was for Argentina.
Cultists gotta cult.
It's dipping to new lows though. I expect he's beginning to lose some of the MAGA base now, which wouldn't have reckoned on a foreign war adventure or hike in the price of a gallon. The world can go to hell in a handcart as long as they don't have to stop using their gas guzzlers.
I can see approval dropping below 40%, at which point even the GOP might start to develop a spine.
It’s a story that even the stupidest MAGA person can understand, oil is going up because Trump attacked Iran for no good reason. For added Xenophobia / antisemitism you could then add because Israel tricked him into doing so
Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
Peron still has legions of devout followers - multiple declared after it being proven with mathematical exactitude how crap he was for Argentina.
Cultists gotta cult.
It's dipping to new lows though. I expect he's beginning to lose some of the MAGA base now, which wouldn't have reckoned on a foreign war adventure or hike in the price of a gallon. The world can go to hell in a handcart as long as they don't have to stop using their gas guzzlers.
I can see approval dropping below 40%, at which point even the GOP might start to develop a spine.
It's at 36%...
As ever, MArk, it depends which metric you are looking at. I was going by the Realclearpolitics average which has him at 41.2%, but it's the trend that is really significant:
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
Al Carns should really be the Defence Secretary but maybe Starmer wants to keep the wooden clueless Healey there in case more exposure for Carns makes him a leadership candidate !
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
Kemi is hoping that the present government will be encouraged to do stupid things based on sign written slogans. It has worked in the past.
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
Interesting article Rochdale, but you can't have it both ways. It can't be bad that Ref/Green will fall away AND bad that Lab/Con will remain, surely?
Yes, you can. None of them are any good. None offer solutions to our problems. None are even willing to acknowledge the extent of the our problems because it would cause problems with their "solutions" and make them incoherent.
I remember Thatcher and her 1979 government. We were in serious trouble. Unions were willing to destroy businesses rather than compromise about what was needed to boost productivity. Management was arrogant, patronising and frankly under skilled. More and more of our economy was subject to the public sector mindset, more focused on those that worked for the business than their customers. Changing this was hard, brutal at times, but (with a lot of help from the proceeds of North Sea oil) it worked.
Where is the current Thatcherite solution? Not in any of our politicians, that is for sure.
My tentative suggestions are that we need a repeat of 1980s deregulation. We need to massively cut back on the regulatory state, many of these regulatory bodies should be completely eliminated. We need to protect businesses from their intrusions and allow them to get on with making money. This will make running businesses from here more attractive but we need to do more, giving generous tax allowances for investment both in kit and training. We need to admire and not want to tear down those who want to make money. We need them. We need the jobs that they create. We need the taxes they will pay and we need to accept that some of them will be chancers and wide boys taking advantage. That's ok and we need to not get too het up about it.
I don't see anyone offering anything like this. I don't see anyone who has anything like a workable solution at all.
The country needs to live within its means.
Accept that and you inevitably have to think about productivity, skills and training, affordable housing, useful transport, energy security.
Don't accept that and governments will always choose to borrow more money and hand out more welfare.
I heard the head of Germany say, “This is not our war” for Iran.
I said, well, Ukraine is not our war—we helped.
I thought it was a very inappropriate statement to make, but he made it, and he can’t erase it.
The way that a two hundred year old solid democracy can become completely run by the minute-by-minute whims of one man is a warning for us all in the West.
At least Caligula can blame genuinely hostile historians who were out to do a hatchet job on him. Trump has no such excuse.
All those speaking about Stephen Fisher. I've bumped into him once or twice, and he has a very tidy haircut. He's been doing predictions for years and he counts amongst the blessed because he doesn't delete his predictions afterwards. His blog, which includes his latest prediction, can be found here: https://electionsetc.com/
Thanks for the link. I think London torpedoes his prediction but we will see
Interesting article Rochdale, but you can't have it both ways. It can't be bad that Ref/Green will fall away AND bad that Lab/Con will remain, surely?
Yes, you can. None of them are any good. None offer solutions to our problems. None are even willing to acknowledge the extent of the our problems because it would cause problems with their "solutions" and make them incoherent.
I remember Thatcher and her 1979 government. We were in serious trouble. Unions were willing to destroy businesses rather than compromise about what was needed to boost productivity. Management was arrogant, patronising and frankly under skilled. More and more of our economy was subject to the public sector mindset, more focused on those that worked for the business than their customers. Changing this was hard, brutal at times, but (with a lot of help from the proceeds of North Sea oil) it worked.
Where is the current Thatcherite solution? Not in any of our politicians, that is for sure.
My tentative suggestions are that we need a repeat of 1980s deregulation. We need to massively cut back on the regulatory state, many of these regulatory bodies should be completely eliminated. We need to protect businesses from their intrusions and allow them to get on with making money. This will make running businesses from here more attractive but we need to do more, giving generous tax allowances for investment both in kit and training. We need to admire and not want to tear down those who want to make money. We need them. We need the jobs that they create. We need the taxes they will pay and we need to accept that some of them will be chancers and wide boys taking advantage. That's ok and we need to not get too het up about it.
I don't see anyone offering anything like this. I don't see anyone who has anything like a workable solution at all.
The country needs to live within its means.
Accept that and you inevitably have to think about productivity, skills and training, affordable housing, useful transport, energy security.
Don't accept that and governments will always choose to borrow more money and hand out more welfare.
Oh I agree with that completely. But we need to find ways to grow our means. I am not seeing a realistic route to growth.
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
Al Carns should really be the Defence Secretary
Yeah, the best possible preparation for running a vast bureaucracy and extremely technically complex procurement programs is being a fucking Bootie.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
Al Carns should really be the Defence Secretary
Yeah, the best possible preparation for running a vast bureaucracy and extremely technically complex procurement programs is being a fucking Bootie.
That’s what advisors are for . Al Carns was just on LBC and knocks spots off the useless Healey .
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
Can you explain the Con policy?
So far (and based to be fair only on the tweet you linked, but an official Con one, so should mean something) I haven't got a clue as the tweet text, Kemi and the tanker slogan all said different things.
Effectively drill oil and gas and take the tax over the next 20 years to invest in renewables and reduce bills
Will cost more to drill extract poor quality oil than the tax received in the first 10 years
Furthermore any current Tory who tells you they will invest in renewables are taking the absolute piss given their hatred on bet zero
Still selling the Brent Crude = Poor quality horseshit?
The obvious flaw in the header - nice attempt at political commentary Rochdale, but no cigar - is how Kemi and her front bench have clearly positioned the Conservatives with much more blue water between them and Labour, less blue water in direction of Farage - so how do the Conservatives gain from the madness of King Trump becoming unpopular, if their own policy agenda so closely matches that of Trump and Farage? Trump, Farage and Kemi’s heads have all been re-aligned by the same Nation First Populist echo chamber they live rent free in.
Unless Dale means the Tory Party gains from unpopularity of Trump and his Populism, by removing its current unConservative Tory leadership, and move the away from their obviously Populist policy agenda - identical Ice raids and hundreds of thousands of deportations as Reform, identical death to net zero as Trump and Farage etc.
Also there is not enough in the header to explain why Populism becomes unpopular and “stick with devils you know” becomes more popular, during coming years of recessions, unemployment, household and business deficits and belt tightening, with constant reminders of economic woe on the news every day - if anything it sounds to me like fertile ground for listening to the most optimistic of speeches and promises and supporting a different party than usual.
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
Did he mention that he was a big, brave soldier? He tends not to talk about it,
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
As has been explained multiple times, the companies that extract oil and gas pay the U.K. government tax. Lots of it.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
Over the next few days up to 200 mm of rain is possible across parts of the Middle East, following heavy rain and thunderstorms which have already affected the region in the past 10 days or so ⛈️
These peak rainfall totals exceed the yearly average for much of the region
A report claiming that large numbers of Gen Z have been going to church services prompted excitement about a religious revival. However, it has now emerged that it was based on “flawed” data after a survey had been filled in by “fraudulent” respondents.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
I have an anti-Kemi issue, probably stronger one than Brian's. It's based on years of hiring, firing and motivating people towards goals. She's the perfect example of the best candidate on the day. Someone totally unsuited to the role but got it because the other candidates were worse. Luckily the Conservatives, unlike Labour, have policies that allow 'mistakes' to be rectified and we'll see such a rectification soon, assuming a better candidate is willing to take on the mess she leaves behind.
As you know my money is on Katie - but I'd have anyone but Kemi.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
I have an anti-Kemi issue, probably stronger one than Brian's. It's based on years of hiring, firing and motivating people towards goals. She's the perfect example of the best candidate on the day. Someone totally unsuited to the role but got it because the other candidates were worse. Luckily the Conservatives, unlike Labour, have policies that allow 'mistakes' to be rectified and we'll see such a rectification soon, assuming a better candidate is willing to take on the mess she leaves behind.
As you know my money is on Katie - but I'd have anyone but Kemi.
You will have a long wait but to be fair we can disagree with respect
Over the next few days up to 200 mm of rain is possible across parts of the Middle East, following heavy rain and thunderstorms which have already affected the region in the past 10 days or so ⛈️
These peak rainfall totals exceed the yearly average for much of the region
Quite a journey then! He was Labour before becoming a Lib Dem candidate. I'd missed the move to Tory. Perhaps it's just a stop over before he goes for the full fat Farage.....
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
As has been explained multiple times, the companies that extract oil and gas pay the U.K. government tax. Lots of it.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
They pay tax, sure. I'm not sure about "lots of it". From the House of Commons Libray;
In the last decade receipts have fallen substantially from £10.6 billion in 2008/09 to £0.5 billion in 2020/21. As a percentage of national income (GDP), receipts fell from 0.67% of GDP to 0.02% of GDP over this period. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) note that this fall in receipts was largely driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure, as well as cuts in the rates of PRT and the supplementary charge.
Petrol and diesel prices rose strongly in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In turn UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £2.6 billion in 2021/22 to £9.9 billion in 2022/23.
£10 billion isn't to be sniffed at; I wouldn't throw someone out of bed for eating crisps if they offered me £10 billion. But it's not that much on a national scale- it's a bit less than £150 per person in the UK.
Which goes back to the "problems would be solved if we turned on the North Sea taps" argument. The taps don't have that much capacity to be turned on more (non-renewable resources and all that), it can't be done quickly and it doesn't raise that much tax. Outside of Debate Club, it doesn't solve many problems.
You can tell that when the Conservatives talk about 25 BILLION (over 20 years). If you want to persuade someone that a small number is really larger, roll it up over several decades. It's dishonest, but that's politcs, baby.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
Can you explain the Con policy?
So far (and based to be fair only on the tweet you linked, but an official Con one, so should mean something) I haven't got a clue as the tweet text, Kemi and the tanker slogan all said different things.
Effectively drill oil and gas and take the tax over the next 20 years to invest in renewables and reduce bills
Will cost more to drill extract poor quality oil than the tax received in the first 10 years
Furthermore any current Tory who tells you they will invest in renewables are taking the absolute piss given their hatred on bet zero
You have already had your poor oil comment debunked so why persist
The other issue you ignore is net zero and taking tax out of our own oil fields is not contradictory
Over the next few days up to 200 mm of rain is possible across parts of the Middle East, following heavy rain and thunderstorms which have already affected the region in the past 10 days or so ⛈️
These peak rainfall totals exceed the yearly average for much of the region
The gulf coast of Iran will be getting the highest totals because the wind is South Westerly - orographic enhancement over the coastal ranges.
I think I read somewhere there was concern the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan might be affected by heavy rain and possible thunderstorms - one year, I'm sure it was postponed from the Saturday to the Monday when the Nad al Sheba track (the previous incarnation) was flooded.
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Entirely off topic, I have an hour off doing anything in the midst of a frantic week. I am in the surprisingly well-stocked bar of a small theatre in suburban South Manchester where in an hour or so some of my daughters will be part of an amateur youth production of Sister Act. Very much looking forward to it. I'm expecting it to be rather lighter in spirit than my other theatrical experience this week, which was a school performace of The Crucible by Arthur Miller. (That said, I very much enjoyed it. Normally I distrust serious theatre as heavy-handedly and tediously left wing, but - while the Crucible is apparently an allegory for McCarthyism - the story of having the courage to stand against hysteria and popular opinion is one I found quite engaging.)
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
As has been explained multiple times, the companies that extract oil and gas pay the U.K. government tax. Lots of it.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
They pay tax, sure. I'm not sure about "lots of it". From the House of Commons Libray;
In the last decade receipts have fallen substantially from £10.6 billion in 2008/09 to £0.5 billion in 2020/21. As a percentage of national income (GDP), receipts fell from 0.67% of GDP to 0.02% of GDP over this period. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) note that this fall in receipts was largely driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure, as well as cuts in the rates of PRT and the supplementary charge.
Petrol and diesel prices rose strongly in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In turn UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £2.6 billion in 2021/22 to £9.9 billion in 2022/23.
£10 billion isn't to be sniffed at; I wouldn't throw someone out of bed for eating crisps if they offered me £10 billion. But it's not that much on a national scale- it's a bit less than £150 per person in the UK.
Which goes back to the "problems would be solved if we turned on the North Sea taps" argument. The taps don't have that much capacity to be turned on more (non-renewable resources and all that), it can't be done quickly and it doesn't raise that much tax. Outside of Debate Club, it doesn't solve many problems.
You can tell that when the Conservatives talk about 25 BILLION (over 20 years). If you want to persuade someone that a small number is really larger, roll it up over several decades. It's dishonest, but that's politcs, baby.
I remember when a billions pounds a year was serious money.
A report claiming that large numbers of Gen Z have been going to church services prompted excitement about a religious revival. However, it has now emerged that it was based on “flawed” data after a survey had been filled in by “fraudulent” respondents.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
As has been explained multiple times, the companies that extract oil and gas pay the U.K. government tax. Lots of it.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
They pay tax, sure. I'm not sure about "lots of it". From the House of Commons Libray;
In the last decade receipts have fallen substantially from £10.6 billion in 2008/09 to £0.5 billion in 2020/21. As a percentage of national income (GDP), receipts fell from 0.67% of GDP to 0.02% of GDP over this period. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) note that this fall in receipts was largely driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure, as well as cuts in the rates of PRT and the supplementary charge.
Petrol and diesel prices rose strongly in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In turn UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £2.6 billion in 2021/22 to £9.9 billion in 2022/23.
£10 billion isn't to be sniffed at; I wouldn't throw someone out of bed for eating crisps if they offered me £10 billion. But it's not that much on a national scale- it's a bit less than £150 per person in the UK.
Which goes back to the "problems would be solved if we turned on the North Sea taps" argument. The taps don't have that much capacity to be turned on more (non-renewable resources and all that), it can't be done quickly and it doesn't raise that much tax. Outside of Debate Club, it doesn't solve many problems.
You can tell that when the Conservatives talk about 25 BILLION (over 20 years). If you want to persuade someone that a small number is really larger, roll it up over several decades. It's dishonest, but that's politcs, baby.
I remember when a billions pounds a year was serious money.
In a country with a population closer to 100 million than 10 million, a billion pounds has always been about a tenner a head.
It's a long time since a tenner a head a year has been serious money.
Your "What do I do?" statements the other day in your vid quite reminded me of your comments on here last year, as did the answers.
My answer would probably be as a likely Type A, just make sure you have a built in pressure relief valve and deliberate sanity-space built in somewhere. A recommendation I once received from a very busy vicar of a rapidly growing CofE church in Sheffield was to always plan in a "crisis" for half of a day every week. Then when a crisis happened at a random point, he just swapped his "crisis" time to whenever the crisis happened, and moved the activities he had lost to his "crisis" slot on the next Wednesday afternoon.
Entirely off topic, I have an hour off doing anything in the midst of a frantic week. I am in the surprisingly well-stocked bar of a small theatre in suburban South Manchester where in an hour or so some of my daughters will be part of an amateur youth production of Sister Act. Very much looking forward to it. I'm expecting it to be rather lighter in spirit than my other theatrical experience this week, which was a school performace of The Crucible by Arthur Miller. (That said, I very much enjoyed it. Normally I distrust serious theatre as heavy-handedly and tediously left wing, but - while the Crucible is apparently an allegory for McCarthyism - the story of having the courage to stand against hysteria and popular opinion is one I found quite engaging.)
Dammit. The secondary the Things attend have a nice enough theatre space/hall that they could do Sister Act on site. Lovely "space" (as the thespy types say), but no bar.
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
Of “the” markets, it’s actually the European Market the UK gas bills shaped by, not world market. Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
As has been explained multiple times, the companies that extract oil and gas pay the U.K. government tax. Lots of it.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
They pay tax, sure. I'm not sure about "lots of it". From the House of Commons Libray;
In the last decade receipts have fallen substantially from £10.6 billion in 2008/09 to £0.5 billion in 2020/21. As a percentage of national income (GDP), receipts fell from 0.67% of GDP to 0.02% of GDP over this period. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) note that this fall in receipts was largely driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure, as well as cuts in the rates of PRT and the supplementary charge.
Petrol and diesel prices rose strongly in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In turn UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £2.6 billion in 2021/22 to £9.9 billion in 2022/23.
£10 billion isn't to be sniffed at; I wouldn't throw someone out of bed for eating crisps if they offered me £10 billion. But it's not that much on a national scale- it's a bit less than £150 per person in the UK.
Which goes back to the "problems would be solved if we turned on the North Sea taps" argument. The taps don't have that much capacity to be turned on more (non-renewable resources and all that), it can't be done quickly and it doesn't raise that much tax. Outside of Debate Club, it doesn't solve many problems.
You can tell that when the Conservatives talk about 25 BILLION (over 20 years). If you want to persuade someone that a small number is really larger, roll it up over several decades. It's dishonest, but that's politcs, baby.
I remember when a billions pounds a year was serious money.
In a country with a population closer to 100 million than 10 million, a billion pounds has always been about a tenner a head.
It's a long time since a tenner a head a year has been serious money.
Lots of things cost just a few billion a year.
For example, the total of student loans issued each year is about £20 billion.
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
I would point out that a number of (Church going) PBers called out their scepticism about the report when it came out.
Your "What do I do?" statements the other day in your vid quite reminded me of your comments on here last year, as did the answers.
My answer would probably be as a likely Type A, just make sure you have a built in pressure relief valve and deliberate sanity-space built in somewhere. A recommendation I once received from a very busy vicar of a rapidly growing CofE church in Sheffield was to always plan in a "crisis" for half of a day every week. Then when a crisis happened at a random point, he just swapped his "crisis" time to whenever the crisis happened, and moved the activities he had lost to his "crisis" slot on the next Wednesday afternoon.
That's a wise vicar.
One of our problems in recent decades has been the cavalcade of crises. But one of the reasons we have handled them all so badly is that we have burnt off all the space (crisis) capacity in normal times, so there's nothing to cope with real disasters.
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
That's why we can never really trust the US again even after Trump has gone.
We (and Europe) need to quietly disentangle ourselves from dependence on them. Trump is not an aberration, Americans are very likely to elect an equally malign President again, quite soon. I doubt the US will never really be seen as a reliable ally again given what we have witnessed over the last couple of years.
Problem is, it's not unique to the US. Look at Orban and Fico in Hungary and Slovakia. And then Le Pen in France and AfD in Germany, Farage in Britain.
It's happening everywhere mainly for a few reasons. Firstly, most Western economies have done badly in recent decades, due to a combination of the rise of China, the demographic transition, and increasing costs from climate change. Secondly, social media seems to be incompatible with representative democracy.
It's a much bigger problem than disengaging from the US, large enough though that is.
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Unsurprisingly you refer to Farage
Farage has been banging on about drill baby drill for months.
Kemi for a few days.
You really do need to get out more.
To date Kemi has not come up with one single original new idea.
All small number of unfunded ideas that have floated around various parties for decades.
Shrill, andry, aggressive, argumentative, like a Yong wasp
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
Can you explain the Con policy?
So far (and based to be fair only on the tweet you linked, but an official Con one, so should mean something) I haven't got a clue as the tweet text, Kemi and the tanker slogan all said different things.
Effectively drill oil and gas and take the tax over the next 20 years to invest in renewables and reduce bills
Will cost more to drill extract poor quality oil than the tax received in the first 10 years
Furthermore any current Tory who tells you they will invest in renewables are taking the absolute piss given their hatred on bet zero
You have already had your poor oil comment debunked so why persist
The other issue you ignore is net zero and taking tax out of our own oil fields is not contradictory
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Unsurprisingly you refer to Farage
Farage has been banging on about drill baby drill for months.
Kemi for a few days.
You really do need to get out more.
To date Kemi has not come up with one single original new idea.
All small number of unfunded ideas that have floated around various parties for decades.
Shrill, andry, aggressive, argumentative, like a Yong wasp
Do you really think anyone is listening to you and your Kemi hate anymore ?
I just disagreed with @Battlebus on Kemi but with respect and something you could do well to take on board
After Healey's humiliating de bagging at the hands of Nick Ferrari this morning I have been listening to Al Carns on PM. I don't know that much about him but unlike most Cabinet Ministers he can actually think and talk bat the same time.
A cut above!
A relatively easy brief and a good but not combatively hostile interviewer.
Healey was mediocre on today as well, 2 or 3 weeks ago Darren Jones negotiated a predicably hostile Barnett on Today pretty easily.
Of the post-Brown era potential candidates Darren Jones is the most capable imo, but I'd expect an older candidate if Starmer is replaced.
I like Darren Jones. He is generally surefooted but has fallen down a couple of times.
Starmer is tongue tied and so are many of his Ministers. There are a handful of new Labour MPs who seem considerably more adept at politics than the current bunch. Their problem is will they and the party survive the onslaught from Reform, Green and Conservative?
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
I would point out that a number of (Church going) PBers called out their scepticism about the report when it came out.
It's like it always is - a grain of truth but only time proves the pudding, even if the hype has some momentum effect on its own.
I have a delicious anecdote of a Vicar in a rural Anglican church vestry meeting (which is the core leadership - organist, church warden, vicar, lay reader etc) going on about how Billy Graham was a waste of space with his Stadium Missions, dah dah dah, and how no one sticks around. It then became apparent that two of the five people in the room had come to their faith in ... Mission England listening to Billy Graham's preaching some years earlier.
You used to find similar things with people who attended Billy Graham's mission at Harringay Greyhound Stadium in the 1950s.
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
One of the things people feared at the start of Covid that didn't materialise was civil unrest due to shortages. That could happen this time if some of the worst case scenarios come to pass.
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
I would point out that a number of (Church going) PBers called out their scepticism about the report when it came out.
It's like it always is - a grain of truth but only time proves the pudding, even if the hype has some momentum effect on its own.
I have a delicious anecdote of a Vicar in a rural Anglican church vestry meeting (which is the core leadership - organist, church warden, vicar, lay reader etc) going on about how Billy Graham was a waste of space with his Stadium Missions, dah dah dah, and how no one sticks around. It then became apparent that two of the five people in the room had come to their faith in ... Mission England listening to Billy Graham's preaching some years earlier.
You used to find similar things with people who attended Billy Graham's mission at Harringay Greyhound Stadium in the 1950s.
I attended a Billy Graham meeting at Roker Park when I was a student. Out of curiosity really, as my parents had attended them at Harringay.
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
It never rang true as anyone who goes to church on Sunday, or even passes by on the way to the pub can see that there are not hordes of youngsters going.
Plenty in evangelical churches in big cities, Tottenham Court Road Hillsong church is packed with young people of all ethnicities each Sunday
Your "What do I do?" statements the other day in your vid quite reminded me of your comments on here last year, as did the answers.
My answer would probably be as a likely Type A, just make sure you have a built in pressure relief valve and deliberate sanity-space built in somewhere. A recommendation I once received from a very busy vicar of a rapidly growing CofE church in Sheffield was to always plan in a "crisis" for half of a day every week. Then when a crisis happened at a random point, he just swapped his "crisis" time to whenever the crisis happened, and moved the activities he had lost to his "crisis" slot on the next Wednesday afternoon.
That's a wise vicar.
One of our problems in recent decades has been the cavalcade of crises. But one of the reasons we have handled them all so badly is that we have burnt off all the space (crisis) capacity in normal times, so there's nothing to cope with real disasters.
See gas prices after the Ukraine invasion. A massive and deeply unwise intervention.
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Farage's anti immigration, anti woke nationalism and Polanski's anti business anti rich socialism are neither solutions to our problems, just tools for them to get votes. Hopefully the crisis will at least see a return to the main parties to provide support as prices rise and as voters move away from Farage's Trump links. Farage is right though we need to drill more of our own oil and shore up our energy supplies and we also need to grow more of our own food
The person leading the drill for oil in the media is Kemi
Unsurprisingly you refer to Farage
Kemi is right on this
She's right and she's wrong. She's right we should be doing it, that it was moronic to ever stop doing it, that it will benefit us in the medium term. She's wrong that it will make any difference to our energy bills in either the short or medium term. There are benefits but they will not be in the price of gas or oil in the UK. The benefits are our balance of payments (one of the problems politicians hate talking about), investment in the UK and the perpetuation of our skills base. Her presentation today was either stupid or dishonest or both.
I think it's wrong to assume that the Treasury/Tories/Labour/the elite/the deep state/the blob/ the establishment, or whatever you want to call the people who run the country, are unaware of the country's problems. It is simply that they don't know what to do about them. They certainly don't know what to do about them and get elected or reelected on that platform. There are no easy solutions, and anybody who pretends there is is lying. And will probably make things worse.
Of course they know what they need to do. There’s just no political will to do it.
Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
Peron still has legions of devout followers - multiple declared after it being proven with mathematical exactitude how crap he was for Argentina.
Cultists gotta cult.
It's dipping to new lows though. I expect he's beginning to lose some of the MAGA base now, which wouldn't have reckoned on a foreign war adventure or hike in the price of a gallon. The world can go to hell in a handcart as long as they don't have to stop using their gas guzzlers.
I can see approval dropping below 40%, at which point even the GOP might start to develop a spine.
It's at 36%...
As ever, MArk, it depends which metric you are looking at. I was going by the Realclearpolitics average which has him at 41.2%, but it's the trend that is really significant:
Trump still has a 40% odd approval rating. Begs belief.
That's why we can never really trust the US again even after Trump has gone.
We (and Europe) need to quietly disentangle ourselves from dependence on them. Trump is not an aberration, Americans are very likely to elect an equally malign President again, quite soon. I doubt the US will never really be seen as a reliable ally again given what we have witnessed over the last couple of years.
Mind you, on current polling by 2029 the US could have elected President Newsom or Buttigieg while we in the UK have elected PM Farage and France has elected President Le Pen or Bardella, the electoral cycle turns
I see Badenoch has once again visited the Magic Money Tree. "Help with Energy Bills" - well, yes, but what kind of help and from where? Is she going to compel energy companies to reduce prices? Is there going to be Government money to help with bills, if so, how much and from where is the shortfall to be met?
As for drilling in the North Sea, I yield willingly to the knowledge of @Richard_Tyndall and others on the subject. I presume even if we started tomorrow, any new North Sea oil wouldn't be piped ashore for some weeks or months or years? I presume we'd need refinery capacity for example.
To be fair, "Fuel Britannia" is quite catchy albeit meaningless.
It's utter crap.
It would take many months.
It may get more tax receipts but would be sold at global prices at a loss.
Fuel Britannia lorry with a conservative logo when the pump price is £2 is a real vote winner?
Cue "Clueless Kemi robbin us" stickers
She's clueless
Vast majority of under 30s and majority of under 50s very pro renewables
Like with her rush to war, her rush to oil is the polar opposite of visionary or progressive.
You have already been rebuked by @Richard_Tyndall today on a subject he is an expert on
We know you have a weird anti Kemi issue but you are not convincing anyone, even labour supporters
Can you explain the Con policy?
So far (and based to be fair only on the tweet you linked, but an official Con one, so should mean something) I haven't got a clue as the tweet text, Kemi and the tanker slogan all said different things.
Effectively drill oil and gas and take the tax over the next 20 years to invest in renewables and reduce bills
Will cost more to drill extract poor quality oil than the tax received in the first 10 years
Furthermore any current Tory who tells you they will invest in renewables are taking the absolute piss given their hatred on bet zero
You have already had your poor oil comment debunked so why persist
The other issue you ignore is net zero and taking tax out of our own oil fields is not contradictory
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
Your "What do I do?" statements the other day in your vid quite reminded me of your comments on here last year, as did the answers.
My answer would probably be as a likely Type A, just make sure you have a built in pressure relief valve and deliberate sanity-space built in somewhere. A recommendation I once received from a very busy vicar of a rapidly growing CofE church in Sheffield was to always plan in a "crisis" for half of a day every week. Then when a crisis happened at a random point, he just swapped his "crisis" time to whenever the crisis happened, and moved the activities he had lost to his "crisis" slot on the next Wednesday afternoon.
Interesting drive from Aberdeen. But I was surprised that you arrived in Pennan without mentioning that it was the location of one of the finest Scottish films of all time and one of the best British films of the 80's. Local Hero. It's worth the drive for that alone.ans quite appropriate that it should be used to sell an American car
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
One of the things people feared at the start of Covid that didn't materialise was civil unrest due to shortages. That could happen this time if some of the worst case scenarios come to pass.
I recall some unsavoury scenes at my local Tesco's as the toilet roll shortage became acute.
Oddly enough, our network of local corner shops was always well stocked albeit at the very beginning the aforementioned toilet rolls were rationed.
Back to 1973/4 and I think there were isolated incidents of unrest at garages when unofficial rationing was introduced to preserve supplies but this was in the days before self service pumps. Not sure if there are such problems in 2000 but many originally supported the tanker drivers until petrol was scarce at which point support tended to dry up (like the pumps).
There was an interesting conversation on the Daily T between Nick Timothy, Tim Stanley, and Rachel Johnson.
It's the most subtle exploration of positions around the "Trafalgar Square Iftar" that I have heard. It is also very interesting on the place of religion in society.
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
My Trump2 concern is such that if right now you offered me getting to the end of it with the worst consequence being a deep and prolonged global recession I'd take that.
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
You have to detatch the foreign policy arguments (especially given that the war isn't a result of our own policy) from the domestic policy arguments.
Most of the people using this as a stick to beat Reform wouldn't dream of linking support for Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy exports to inflation here.
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
Don't markets normally over-react and then stabilise? Are there occasions on which they've notably under-reacted?
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
My Trump2 concern is such that if right now you offered me getting to the end of it with the worst consequence being a deep and prolonged global recession I'd take that.
Are you suggesting the options might be a slightly more welcome World economic depression rather than Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome?
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Bit of a weird definition of "Elite" for me. Our upper class has always been middlebrow in terms of intellectual pursuits.
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
You have to detatch the foreign policy arguments (especially given that the war isn't a result of our own policy) from the domestic policy arguments.
Most of the people using this as a stick to beat Reform wouldn't dream of linking support for Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy exports to inflation here.
I believe you are comparing and contrasting two distinctly different things.
Ukraine attacking Russian resources is to stave off an existential event for the country. The US bombing Iranian oil installation on Bibi's whim leading to retaliatory acts in the Kingdom and the Emirates is wholly different and not especially necessary.
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Yes rather worrying .
Corbyn's ex-wife claimed she had never seen him read a book. Political pamphlets yes, but not a single book.
I think it's wrong to assume that the Treasury/Tories/Labour/the elite/the deep state/the blob/ the establishment, or whatever you want to call the people who run the country, are unaware of the country's problems. It is simply that they don't know what to do about them. They certainly don't know what to do about them and get elected or reelected on that platform. There are no easy solutions, and anybody who pretends there is is lying. And will probably make things worse.
Of course they know what they need to do. There’s just no political will to do it.
Like so many much longer articles lamenting the state of things, your single sentence stops at just the point where it needs to start. The new Statesman took about six pages recently for John Bew to do exactly the same thing.
(Is it just me or are all the policy wonks and thinky institutes finding that they are very short of coherent and non contradictory ways forward, while being verry clear on the nature of the mess?)
SECRETARY RUBIO: The U.S. is constantly asked to help in wars and we have. But when we had a need, it didn’t get positive responses from NATO. A couple leaders said that Iran was not Europe’s war. Well, Ukraine isn’t our war, yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than anyone.
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
It’s even worse for fuel because it’s up in massive neon numbers all over the place.
It’s all getting pinned on Trump at the moment (anecdotal, social media) but I can’t see it lasting too long. Short-term, fiscally devastating handouts are surely on the way.
Our elites now read less than the average member of the population and it shows.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Bit of a weird definition of "Elite" for me. Our upper class has always been middlebrow in terms of intellectual pursuits.
Only a few of them were genuine intellectuals yes but they still read more than average, now in the social media age they read less than average
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
I agree it's a good header, although I agree with its conclusions for slightly different reasons.
With some energy price and inflation shocks, the root cause is ambiguous. Blaming the incumbent is the natural thing to do, whatever the underlying nuances.
Here we have an inflation spike an obvious and unarguable cause: Trump. And there is only one party that is best mates with Trump - and they are currently leading in the polls. Other parties should be banging this drum on and on. Association with Trump can be a political death knell - just ask Canadian Conservatives...
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
A report claiming the number of young people attending church in England and Wales had skyrocketed has been retracted, after the underlying data was found to be flawed.
The Bible Society's "Quiet Revival" report had been widely reported on since its publication last year and became an accepted part of discourse among many Christians.
Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were "fraudulent".
It has said that quality control measures, which usually remove such responses, were not applied due to human error.
It never rang true as anyone who goes to church on Sunday, or even passes by on the way to the pub can see that there are not hordes of youngsters going.
Plenty in evangelical churches in big cities, Tottenham Court Road Hillsong church is packed with young people of all ethnicities each Sunday
What little I'm reading on the Iran war on other forums is that the global markets are still deluding themselves as to how bad this is going to get. And that it will take the first tankers to 'not' get to their destinations next week when they finally wake up to what has already happened.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
My Trump2 concern is such that if right now you offered me getting to the end of it with the worst consequence being a deep and prolonged global recession I'd take that.
Are you suggesting the options might be a slightly more welcome World economic depression rather than Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome?
Yes. Remember he's done this Iran thing primarily for the visceral pleasure of using his toys and saying things like 'obliterate' and 'destruction never seen before' and 'gonna be hell to pay'. A child and a moral vacuum. Plus breathtakingly corrupt, clueless and incompetent. It's new territory having a person like this in the White House. It doesn't lend itself to traditional analysis or forecasting. All you can do is hope for the best of all the possible grim outcomes. Until he's gone, I mean, not just this episode.
Comments
A cut above!
I remember Thatcher and her 1979 government. We were in serious trouble. Unions were willing to destroy businesses rather than compromise about what was needed to boost productivity. Management was arrogant, patronising and frankly under skilled. More and more of our economy was subject to the public sector mindset, more focused on those that worked for the business than their customers. Changing this was hard, brutal at times, but (with a lot of help from the proceeds of North Sea oil) it worked.
Where is the current Thatcherite solution? Not in any of our politicians, that is for sure.
My tentative suggestions are that we need a repeat of 1980s deregulation. We need to massively cut back on the regulatory state, many of these regulatory bodies should be completely eliminated. We need to protect businesses from their intrusions and allow them to get on with making money. This will make running businesses from here more attractive but we need to do more, giving generous tax allowances for investment both in kit and training. We need to admire and not want to tear down those who want to make money. We need them. We need the jobs that they create. We need the taxes they will pay and we need to accept that some of them will be chancers and wide boys taking advantage. That's ok and we need to not get too het up about it.
I don't see anyone offering anything like this. I don't see anyone who has anything like a workable solution at all.
Healey was mediocre on today as well, 2 or 3 weeks ago Darren Jones negotiated a predicably hostile Barnett on Today pretty easily.
Of the post-Brown era potential candidates Darren Jones is the most capable imo, but I'd expect an older candidate if Starmer is replaced.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
It's sharply down since the Special Military Fuckup. At around 40% it isn't just neutrals that he's losing.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/03/26/perhaps-trump-would-have-been-better-off-releasing-all-the-epstein-files-than-bombing-iran/
Not even an upper age limit?
Accept that and you inevitably have to think about productivity, skills and training, affordable housing, useful transport, energy security.
Don't accept that and governments will always choose to borrow more money and hand out more welfare.
I think London torpedoes his prediction but we will see
Being up to eyebrows in mud and goo, I missed Richard T saying drilling for more Gas in the proposed new UK North Sea fields, DEFINITELY lowers UK Gas bills. No one can promise that.
Has anyone on PB explained how such a small UK contribution to the European network, from new Gas wells proposed for Jackdaw and Cambo for example, will shape Gas Price UK pays for it? Richard T knows this industry well, he knows it’s not possible.
UK has long been price takers, not price makers. At the proposed level of input being argued over, with these new licenses on hold, most the oil sold into the Euro market, UK bills are hardly going anywhere.
All Oil and gas resource from the UK North Sea is owned by private companies, not UK. Once a company is granted a licence to drill, the oil and gas belong to that company. And they sell it on international markets at prices good for them. What stops them? What is actually stopping about 80% of it going abroad and not to UK, which is about normal?
We’ve sold the cake. You can’t sell cake, and still own and control and eat same cake you sold off. I can’t hear anyone talking about quasi-nationalisation. Though Kemi was so in bed with policies of the unions at PMQs yesterday, she might be talking about Nationalisation by after Easter. Farage also loves a bit of Nationalisation too - it obviously fits the Britain First ideology.
Unless Dale means the Tory Party gains from unpopularity of Trump and his Populism, by removing its current unConservative Tory leadership, and move the away from their obviously Populist policy agenda - identical Ice raids and hundreds of thousands of deportations as Reform, identical death to net zero as Trump and Farage etc.
Also there is not enough in the header to explain why Populism becomes unpopular and “stick with devils you know” becomes more popular, during coming years of recessions, unemployment, household and business deficits and belt tightening, with constant reminders of economic woe on the news every day - if anything it sounds to me like fertile ground for listening to the most optimistic of speeches and promises and supporting a different party than usual.
When the oil and gas prices zoom up, the U.K. government gets more tax.
This offsets the effect of rising oil prices - they can use the extra revenue to subsidise consumers or reduce taxes elsewhere.
Since we will be using oil and gas for a number of years, even under the most aggressive net zero plans, why not get some financial benefit here?
Over the next few days up to 200 mm of rain is possible across parts of the Middle East, following heavy rain and thunderstorms which have already affected the region in the past 10 days or so ⛈️
These peak rainfall totals exceed the yearly average for much of the region
https://x.com/metoffice/status/2037184584211734864?s=46
The gulf coast of Iran will be getting the highest totals because the wind is South Westerly - orographic enhancement over the coastal ranges.
A report claiming that large numbers of Gen Z have been going to church services prompted excitement about a religious revival. However, it has now emerged that it was based on “flawed” data after a survey had been filled in by “fraudulent” respondents.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/religion/article/gen-z-religious-revival-claim-yougov-j9c9d3rmf
As you know my money is on Katie - but I'd have anyone but Kemi.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2026/03/30/1000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-193.17,-0.51,315
El Niño means major prices hikes next year in
- Soy beans (always)
- Rice (most events)
- Wheat (often)
And given agri futures traders follow the ENSO forecasts, I expect they’re already factoring it in alongside oil price effects.
In the last decade receipts have fallen substantially from £10.6 billion in 2008/09 to £0.5 billion in 2020/21. As a percentage of national income (GDP), receipts fell from 0.67% of GDP to 0.02% of GDP over this period. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) note that this fall in receipts was largely driven by falling production and higher tax-deductible expenditure, as well as cuts in the rates of PRT and the supplementary charge.
Petrol and diesel prices rose strongly in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In turn UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £2.6 billion in 2021/22 to £9.9 billion in 2022/23.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00341/
£10 billion isn't to be sniffed at; I wouldn't throw someone out of bed for eating crisps if they offered me £10 billion. But it's not that much on a national scale- it's a bit less than £150 per person in the UK.
Which goes back to the "problems would be solved if we turned on the North Sea taps" argument. The taps don't have that much capacity to be turned on more (non-renewable resources and all that), it can't be done quickly and it doesn't raise that much tax. Outside of Debate Club, it doesn't solve many problems.
You can tell that when the Conservatives talk about 25 BILLION (over 20 years). If you want to persuade someone that a small number is really larger, roll it up over several decades. It's dishonest, but that's politcs, baby.
The other issue you ignore is net zero and taking tax out of our own oil fields is not contradictory
They compliment each other by doing both
Unsurprisingly you refer to Farage
Cui bono?
Starmer: 'I beat myself up' about Mandelson
https://news.sky.com/video/share-13524788
It's a long time since a tenner a head a year has been serious money.
How noble
I think Nissan Sunderland could benefit from this, as they have been moaning a little.
Let me link to your fun drive to the village on the North Coast, which for part of the year never gets sunlight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfChNnTSknU
Your "What do I do?" statements the other day in your vid quite reminded me of your comments on here last year, as did the answers.
My answer would probably be as a likely Type A, just make sure you have a built in pressure relief valve and deliberate sanity-space built in somewhere. A recommendation I once received from a very busy vicar of a rapidly growing CofE church in Sheffield was to always plan in a "crisis" for half of a day every week. Then when a crisis happened at a random point, he just swapped his "crisis" time to whenever the crisis happened, and moved the activities he had lost to his "crisis" slot on the next Wednesday afternoon.
For example, the total of student loans issued each year is about £20 billion.
https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/15-august/features/features/quiet-revival-myth-or-reality
It's like it always is - a grain of truth but only time proves the pudding, even if the hype has some momentum effect on its own.
One of our problems in recent decades has been the cavalcade of crises. But one of the reasons we have handled them all so badly is that we have burnt off all the space (crisis) capacity in normal times, so there's nothing to cope with real disasters.
If some of the doom and gloom I'm seeing is even half right, Leon's going to get to see 'Threads' without the need for nuclear war first.
(It's probably not that bad, but we are all deluding ourselves).
It's happening everywhere mainly for a few reasons. Firstly, most Western economies have done badly in recent decades, due to a combination of the rise of China, the demographic transition, and increasing costs from climate change. Secondly, social media seems to be incompatible with representative democracy.
It's a much bigger problem than disengaging from the US, large enough though that is.
Kemi for a few days.
You really do need to get out more.
To date Kemi has not come up with one single original new idea.
All small number of unfunded ideas that have floated around various parties for decades.
Shrill, andry, aggressive, argumentative, like a Yong wasp
I just disagreed with @Battlebus on Kemi but with respect and something you could do well to take on board
Starmer is tongue tied and so are many of his Ministers. There are a handful of new Labour MPs who seem considerably more adept at politics than the current bunch. Their problem is will they and the party survive the onslaught from Reform, Green and Conservative?
You used to find similar things with people who attended Billy Graham's mission at Harringay Greyhound Stadium in the 1950s.
Nate Silver
The thing with inflation is when it is something most people buy week in week out you notice. Be it eggs, peppers, onions or really food in general. It gets really noticed.
If it’s stuff like airline tickets or cinema tickets it’s less noticeable.
This, as we have discussed, will be bad. Very bad.
I’m certainly Reform curious/leaning towards, but their support for this shows me they don’t give a fuck about the effect on the people in the poorer communities (a bit like PB but from a different angle).
Oddly enough, our network of local corner shops was always well stocked albeit at the very beginning the aforementioned toilet rolls were rationed.
Back to 1973/4 and I think there were isolated incidents of unrest at garages when unofficial rationing was introduced to preserve supplies but this was in the days before self service pumps. Not sure if there are such problems in 2000 but many originally supported the tanker drivers until petrol was scarce at which point support tended to dry up (like the pumps).
It's the most subtle exploration of positions around the "Trafalgar Square Iftar" that I have heard. It is also very interesting on the place of religion in society.
Recommended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGvHU06h68Y
Most of the people using this as a stick to beat Reform wouldn't dream of linking support for Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy exports to inflation here.
'Britain’s elites no longer look like they did in the 1950s: droopy-moustached old white blokes with a grouse moor somewhere in their background. They are younger, more urban, more multi-ethnic, make rather than inherit their money. That’s all, we may think, to the good. But as The Telegraph’s Great British Class Study discovers, they are less likely than any other sector of society to spend their spare time reading.
For fewer than one in three members of the new “Elite” read for pleasure, according to polling conducted by the opinion-research firm Public First. Too busy with socials, or crypto, or the gym. By contrast, 45 per cent of the “Left Behind” group – whose members typically score the least economic and cultural points in the new system – are readers, as are 60 per cent of the typically older, more financially stable “Quietly Comfortable” class.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/news/britains-elites-have-abandoned-intelligence/
Then I started reading PB instead.
Trump is leaning towards a major ground operation in Iran, believing it could force the regime to surrender, The Times of Israel reports.
Ukraine attacking Russian resources is to stave off an existential event for the country. The US bombing Iranian oil installation on Bibi's whim leading to retaliatory acts in the Kingdom and the Emirates is wholly different and not especially necessary.
(Is it just me or are all the policy wonks and thinky institutes finding that they are very short of coherent and non contradictory ways forward, while being verry clear on the nature of the mess?)
SECRETARY RUBIO: The U.S. is constantly asked to help in wars and we have. But when we had a need, it didn’t get positive responses from NATO. A couple leaders said that Iran was not Europe’s war. Well, Ukraine isn’t our war, yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than anyone.
It’s all getting pinned on Trump at the moment (anecdotal, social media) but I can’t see it lasting too long. Short-term, fiscally devastating handouts are surely on the way.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrm0rlv102o
"Australia bans Iranian tourists with valid visas for six months"
With some energy price and inflation shocks, the root cause is ambiguous. Blaming the incumbent is the natural thing to do, whatever the underlying nuances.
Here we have an inflation spike an obvious and unarguable cause: Trump. And there is only one party that is best mates with Trump - and they are currently leading in the polls. Other parties should be banging this drum on and on. Association with Trump can be a political death knell - just ask Canadian Conservatives...
That’s enough for a skerry or two? Even if preps a full invasion we are months away from it.
Burgum on Venezuela: I literally think they’re going to put up a statue of President Trump
Trump: That would be a great honor
*2 mins of updates later*
Burgum: Their oil now flows to our refineries
Trump: Forget that. When are they going to do the statue?