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Why it could all go mammary glands up for Zack Polanski – politicalbetting.com

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,808
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    edited 12:41PM

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    Lol. Sure.
    I disagree. This is setting up for later
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    Is that just seats for this cycle or all seats?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,763
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Starmer all over the shop

    Badenoch could have gone on

    War
    Cost of living
    Meningitis
    Trump


    No Mandelson

    Pure inside Westminster bubble crap

    She then exacerbates this issue by leaving a clear open goal with vile Nick Timothy sat on her front bench.

    Three times she's so immersed in her notes she sits down forgetting she's actually got to ask a question.

    Kemi

    Clueless
    Gutless
    Irrelevant

    Will she have the backbone to sack Timothy?
    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

    Your boy took a hell of a beating...
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Brixian, that is just hand-waving.

    People do care when a Prime Minister repeatedly looks uncomfortable around the same subject, especially when it concerns judgement, associates, and candour. You can dismiss Mandelson as irrelevant if you like, but Starmer plainly does not find it irrelevant, otherwise he would not keep sounding so awkward whenever it comes up.

    “He answered” and “he apologised” is not some magic spell that makes the issue disappear. Politicians answer and apologise all the time without settling anything. The question is whether the answer was convincing and whether the apology closes the matter. In this case, clearly not, or it would not keep resurfacing.

    And claiming “no one is interested” is just tribal wishful thinking. You may not be interested. Labour loyalists may not want to dwell on it. That is not the same thing as the issue having no political weight.

    If Badenoch is raising it, it is because it speaks to a wider concern about Starmer: that beneath the lawyerly polish, voters are not always sure what he really thinks, who he is close to, or where the line is between pragmatism and expediency.
    The vast majority of the general public could not give a fig about Mandelson

    He's outlined what happened
    He's outlined what happened and when
    It's her chance to impress the electorate
    She wasted 6 questions
    Everyone will wonder why?

    She's wrong on the war
    She has no policy on energy
    She hasn't the balls to sack Timothy.

    She now has a massive problem if she doesn't sack Timothy today.
    It's a bold try, and you should be applauded for the effort. So well done for that.
    It's the facts of the matter.

    She wasted 6 questions on a non issue
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 298

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It is and if he did not meet him he could not have been lied to

    The conservative back bencher Andrew Snowden just let rip into Starmer’s non answers to Kemi and Starmer response should be watched by anyone who thinks Starmer is not in deep trouble and he knows it
    Chris Mason -

    "Kemi Badenoch was able — via a specific question — to highlight that the prime minister didn’t speak to Mandelson himself prior to appointing him ambassador in Washington.
    The lack of such a conversation, reported by The Times in recent days, prompted Badenoch to repeatedly offer the prime minister to say this reporting was wrong — and he didn’t."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,340

    Andy_JS said:

    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK

    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 28% (-2)
    🌳 CON: 21% (+2)
    🌹 LAB: 20% (-2)
    🟢 GRN: 13% +2)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1]
    ☑️ OTHER: 4% (+1)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 13th - 16th March
    Changes with 9th March"

    http://x.com/PolliticsUK/status/2034189718938656857

    Kemi getting a “war bounce” for last week asking the government “people are hurting with the cost of living, what are you actually doing about it.” Badenoch should have stuck with that at PMQs today, not switched to Mandelson.

    The war causing huge pain to the cost of living, and the government doing little or nothing about it, has the most cut thru across all voter groups - that’s where the votes are for the Conservatives.
    She went with Mandy because that's a clear cut issue where the tories can't be blamed. The Special Persian Operation is problematic because LMA has been all over place, alternating between huffing Trump's farts and slagging him off. Cozzie livs is difficult for the same reason.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,677

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034123843850100741

    ADS-B data shows that USAF bombers conducting strike missions on Iran from England are completely avoiding continental European airspace.

    Clearly on "purely defensive" runs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975

    Brixian59 said:

    Battlebus said:

    FF43 said:

    Sorry but it's a fantasy to think that Europe can wash its hands of the crisis in Iran and the gulf.

    It has the potential to wreck the global economy. Cause starvation among the world's poor. If our own economies could head south with Russia friendly politicians who want sanctions removed gaining ground. Meanwhile the main beneficiary of the war is Vladimir Putin who gets more money by the day to continue his war in Europe.

    So pressure Trump to try and end the war ASAP whatever the conditions? Well do we want to be dealing with an Iranian leadership arguably even more fanatical and emboldened because they think they've seen off the great satan? That's doesn't look too inviting either.

    I agree this is one of the decisions facing Europe and the answer is Yes.

    For the reasons implied in your question.
    How do you think Europe can stop the war?

    It's all very well to say that a war isn't in our interests so there shouldn't be a war, but there is a war. Wishing it away won't change anything.
    Difficult for any country to do anything until Israel consider Iran and their proxies to no longer be a threat. They are in the driving seat and don't believe Trump could persuade them from their target. So Trump's off-ramp is to get some other mug to patrol Hormuz and then blame them when it goes wrong.

    Like Ukraine - Russia, it will eventually settle but at a cost
    So we should support them to get Regime Change, then the threat will be gone.

    It is also the right thing to do, for the Iranians.

    Win/win.
    We should support regime change

    IN ISRAEL

    As long as Netanyahu and his rabid Zionists are there, there will be no peace in the region

    Yeah, yeah, your hatred of Israel is well known.

    Netanyahu's Israel has in recent years signed historic peace agreements with much of the region, and was close to it even with Saudi Arabia prior to the Hamas atrocity a few years ago.

    Theocratic Iran are the problem, not democratic Israel.
    Israel has also invaded two of its neighbours in recent years, and bombed a third. I don’t think Bibi is going to win the Nobel Peace Prize… although he’s probably favourite for the FIFA Peace Prize.
    Rumour has it its between him and Darth Maul.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 298
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Brixian, that is just hand-waving.

    People do care when a Prime Minister repeatedly looks uncomfortable around the same subject, especially when it concerns judgement, associates, and candour. You can dismiss Mandelson as irrelevant if you like, but Starmer plainly does not find it irrelevant, otherwise he would not keep sounding so awkward whenever it comes up.

    “He answered” and “he apologised” is not some magic spell that makes the issue disappear. Politicians answer and apologise all the time without settling anything. The question is whether the answer was convincing and whether the apology closes the matter. In this case, clearly not, or it would not keep resurfacing.

    And claiming “no one is interested” is just tribal wishful thinking. You may not be interested. Labour loyalists may not want to dwell on it. That is not the same thing as the issue having no political weight.

    If Badenoch is raising it, it is because it speaks to a wider concern about Starmer: that beneath the lawyerly polish, voters are not always sure what he really thinks, who he is close to, or where the line is between pragmatism and expediency.
    The vast majority of the general public could not give a fig about Mandelson

    He's outlined what happened
    He's outlined what happened and when
    It's her chance to impress the electorate
    She wasted 6 questions
    Everyone will wonder why?

    She's wrong on the war
    She has no policy on energy
    She hasn't the balls to sack Timothy.

    She now has a massive problem if she doesn't sack Timothy today.
    It's a bold try, and you should be applauded for the effort. So well done for that.
    It's the facts of the matter.

    She wasted 6 questions on a non issue
    It's an A for effort today, certainly...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,605

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Incidentally, it looks like Dubai got hit quite badly hit last night. It’s difficult to be sure with their brutal censorship but it looks like the biggest Iranian attack yet

    I thought they were meant to be running out of missiles and drones? This has echoes of all the “Putin has no more ammunition” stories, from the PB Dads, back in 2024

    I hope Sandpit is OK. Perhaps he can give us an honest update

    I hope he doesn't - wouldn't want him to end up on the wrong side of the law.
    I can be honest. Those finding themselves in trouble are either posting fake news or taking photographs of military activity.

    One example from yesterday, someone posting a six-year-old video of a marketplace fire in the city of Ajman, but saying that it was a current event in Dubai caused by a missile attack.
    There is a verified video from Al Jazeera of drones (I think) being intercepted right over Dubai. People forget that interceptions don't take away the entire problem, the intercepted drone falls to the ground

    I experienced exactly this in Odessa. I was strolling back to my hotel and I heard - honestly - the loudest, most frightening noise I have ever heard in my life. Everyone on the street reflexively ducked (never a good sign in Odessa, where they shrug off air sirens)

    We turned around and saw a puff of smoke and a lot of crushed metal. It was an intercepted drone and it had fallen on to a kid's playground, obliterating the swings - happily the playground was empty at the time (there aren't many small children left in Odessa). The metal smouldered and did not burn. We all got on with the day, I immediately went into the next shop and bought a load of jamon iberica de bellota, having been reminded that life is short

    However, I really would not like to live in a city where "interceptions" like this happen all the time. Once, is an anecdote, twice or thrice and it's a sign to get the fuck out
    Well we’d all rather be living somewhere without flying bombs around the place, but we are where we are.

    No-one is quitting jobs and getting out, although tourism is abviously down with Western governments advising against travel to the region. But day-to-day, life goes on. There’s fewer fatalities than days in the conflict so far, in a country of 11m people, so the chance of being affected is tiny. We’re working from home as much as possible, and not hanging around outside when the alerts go off, but apart from that we continue as usual.

    Ukraine was an order of magnitude worse.
    Good to hear you are relatively safe.

    Imagine if, instead of spending £12 billion plus of US military power on attacking Iran, Trump had spent £12 billion plus on supporting Ukraine. Then there’d be no bombs in Dubai and we’d be closer to there being no bombs in Ukraine.
    Iran are big supporters of the Russian effort in Ukraine, and the US took out the Shahed done factory near Tehran yesterday.

    Let the US, Israel, and the Gulf states fight Iran, and let Europe fight Russia, sounds like a pretty good idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269

    Hoyle has had enough of Starmer, lol

    Bit late to that bandwagon, isn't he ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,605
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034123843850100741

    ADS-B data shows that USAF bombers conducting strike missions on Iran from England are completely avoiding continental European airspace.

    It’s rather amusing that they’re flying around with transponders on in the first place!

    Yes countries can and do refuse overflight to foreign military aircraft carrying weapons, remember just before the Ukraine war kicked off when British transporters had to avoid Germany when flying to Kyiv?
    The paperwork for this sort of thing gets fucked up all the time so strange routes are often just down to sheer incompetence.

    I once had to get to Basra via Bahrain so they put me on an RAF Tristar ex Brize which was going to Kabul via Bahrain to drop off circa 250 Royal Marines. We got to Bahrain and the pot bellied RAF captain comes back and tells us they have no clearance to unload pax in Bahrain so I'll have to stay on for the Kabul legs and they'll drop me off at Bahrain on they way back after the clearances are sorted. Somewhere over the Hindu Kush we learn that Kabul Airport is being fucking mortared so we're not going there, we're diverting to Karachi. We have six hours on the ground in Karachi then back to Bahrain where to the surprise of nobody the paperwork is still fucked. The RAF give up at this point with the spirit of Per Ardua Ad Astra being missing in action. They do a crew change and fly us back to Brize. We spent 29 hours on that fucking Tristar to end up back where we started. The Marines were about ready to start stabbing RAF cabin crew and they asked me, as senior RN officer on board if I could control the Booties I replied that I wasn't even going to fucking try.
    Okay that’s a funny story, well done!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,324
    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    His obvious answered should be, which one of the hundreds of conversations I've had with Peter on hundreds of issues over 20 years does she specifically want me to comments on.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,475

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    You can lie to someone without speaking to them. If I WhatsApp you a lie, I’ve not spoken to you, but I have lied to you.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    Nigelb said:

    Hoyle has had enough of Starmer, lol

    Bit late to that bandwagon, isn't he ?
    He had to finish his dance lessons with Rippon first
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Brixian, that is just hand-waving.

    People do care when a Prime Minister repeatedly looks uncomfortable around the same subject, especially when it concerns judgement, associates, and candour. You can dismiss Mandelson as irrelevant if you like, but Starmer plainly does not find it irrelevant, otherwise he would not keep sounding so awkward whenever it comes up.

    “He answered” and “he apologised” is not some magic spell that makes the issue disappear. Politicians answer and apologise all the time without settling anything. The question is whether the answer was convincing and whether the apology closes the matter. In this case, clearly not, or it would not keep resurfacing.

    And claiming “no one is interested” is just tribal wishful thinking. You may not be interested. Labour loyalists may not want to dwell on it. That is not the same thing as the issue having no political weight.

    If Badenoch is raising it, it is because it speaks to a wider concern about Starmer: that beneath the lawyerly polish, voters are not always sure what he really thinks, who he is close to, or where the line is between pragmatism and expediency.
    The vast majority of the general public could not give a fig about Mandelson

    He's outlined what happened
    He's outlined what happened and when
    It's her chance to impress the electorate
    She wasted 6 questions
    Everyone will wonder why?

    She's wrong on the war
    She has no policy on energy
    She hasn't the balls to sack Timothy.

    She now has a massive problem if she doesn't sack Timothy today.
    Is that whataboutery, or blank verse ?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,702
    I don’t think that I’ve ever heard the Speaker apologise for the lack of answers from the PM before
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,715
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    His obvious answered should be, which one of the hundreds of conversations I've had with Peter on hundreds of issues over 20 years does she specifically want me to comments on.

    You want to tie Starmer that close to Mandelson and somehow that helps him
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556
    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    Here here

    She's got a bloody huge issue kow this afternoon to deal with

    To sack her most recently appointed minister or not
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    edited 12:46PM

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    You can lie to someone without speaking to them. If I WhatsApp you a lie, I’ve not spoken to you, but I have lied to you.
    And that WhatsApp will fall under the humble address and will have to be released
    Plus Starmer would have to explain why he conducted due dilligence on a pedos best mate by text
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,808

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    Is that just seats for this cycle or all seats?
    Just for this cycle in May this year.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556
    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It is and if he did not meet him he could not have been lied to

    The conservative back bencher Andrew Snowden just let rip into Starmer’s non answers to Kemi and Starmer response should be watched by anyone who thinks Starmer is not in deep trouble and he knows it
    Chris Mason -

    "Kemi Badenoch was able — via a specific question — to highlight that the prime minister didn’t speak to Mandelson himself prior to appointing him ambassador in Washington.
    The lack of such a conversation, reported by The Times in recent days, prompted Badenoch to repeatedly offer the prime minister to say this reporting was wrong — and he didn’t."
    Chris Mason

    Pmsl
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269

    Battlebus said:

    Battlebus said:

    FF43 said:

    Sorry but it's a fantasy to think that Europe can wash its hands of the crisis in Iran and the gulf.

    It has the potential to wreck the global economy. Cause starvation among the world's poor. If our own economies could head south with Russia friendly politicians who want sanctions removed gaining ground. Meanwhile the main beneficiary of the war is Vladimir Putin who gets more money by the day to continue his war in Europe.

    So pressure Trump to try and end the war ASAP whatever the conditions? Well do we want to be dealing with an Iranian leadership arguably even more fanatical and emboldened because they think they've seen off the great satan? That's doesn't look too inviting either.

    I agree this is one of the decisions facing Europe and the answer is Yes.

    For the reasons implied in your question.
    How do you think Europe can stop the war?

    It's all very well to say that a war isn't in our interests so there shouldn't be a war, but there is a war. Wishing it away won't change anything.
    Difficult for any country to do anything until Israel consider Iran and their proxies to no longer be a threat. They are in the driving seat and don't believe Trump could persuade them from their target. So Trump's off-ramp is to get some other mug to patrol Hormuz and then blame them when it goes wrong.

    Like Ukraine - Russia, it will eventually settle but at a cost
    So we should support them to get Regime Change, then the threat will be gone.

    It is also the right thing to do, for the Iranians.

    Win/win.
    You've ducked the earlier point of Trump looking for a mug. The US Navy could patrol Hormuz but declines to so as it's a kill zone. No amount of additional ships will remove the threat of dead servicemen turning up on politicians' doors. Israel and the US say they don't need help anyway and any UK help has been rejected as 'too little, too late'

    Leave it to Israel as they seem to have quite a few 'spotter' moles in Iran.
    What America might usefully do is provide cheap insurance for cargo vessels in the Strait. It's about money as well as missiles.
    How is that going to work ?
    Would you trust the Trump administration to pay up?

    They could work out some scheme to subsidise shipping insurance, but I doubt anyone actually in authority has the patience or expertise.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,475
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Incidentally, it looks like Dubai got hit quite badly hit last night. It’s difficult to be sure with their brutal censorship but it looks like the biggest Iranian attack yet

    I thought they were meant to be running out of missiles and drones? This has echoes of all the “Putin has no more ammunition” stories, from the PB Dads, back in 2024

    I hope Sandpit is OK. Perhaps he can give us an honest update

    I hope he doesn't - wouldn't want him to end up on the wrong side of the law.
    I can be honest. Those finding themselves in trouble are either posting fake news or taking photographs of military activity.

    One example from yesterday, someone posting a six-year-old video of a marketplace fire in the city of Ajman, but saying that it was a current event in Dubai caused by a missile attack.
    There is a verified video from Al Jazeera of drones (I think) being intercepted right over Dubai. People forget that interceptions don't take away the entire problem, the intercepted drone falls to the ground

    I experienced exactly this in Odessa. I was strolling back to my hotel and I heard - honestly - the loudest, most frightening noise I have ever heard in my life. Everyone on the street reflexively ducked (never a good sign in Odessa, where they shrug off air sirens)

    We turned around and saw a puff of smoke and a lot of crushed metal. It was an intercepted drone and it had fallen on to a kid's playground, obliterating the swings - happily the playground was empty at the time (there aren't many small children left in Odessa). The metal smouldered and did not burn. We all got on with the day, I immediately went into the next shop and bought a load of jamon iberica de bellota, having been reminded that life is short

    However, I really would not like to live in a city where "interceptions" like this happen all the time. Once, is an anecdote, twice or thrice and it's a sign to get the fuck out
    Well we’d all rather be living somewhere without flying bombs around the place, but we are where we are.

    No-one is quitting jobs and getting out, although tourism is abviously down with Western governments advising against travel to the region. But day-to-day, life goes on. There’s fewer fatalities than days in the conflict so far, in a country of 11m people, so the chance of being affected is tiny. We’re working from home as much as possible, and not hanging around outside when the alerts go off, but apart from that we continue as usual.

    Ukraine was an order of magnitude worse.
    Good to hear you are relatively safe.

    Imagine if, instead of spending £12 billion plus of US military power on attacking Iran, Trump had spent £12 billion plus on supporting Ukraine. Then there’d be no bombs in Dubai and we’d be closer to there being no bombs in Ukraine.
    Iran are big supporters of the Russian effort in Ukraine, and the US took out the Shahed done factory near Tehran yesterday.

    Let the US, Israel, and the Gulf states fight Iran, and let Europe fight Russia, sounds like a pretty good idea.
    Russia is also profiting from the oil price rise.

    I think it would be better for Europe and the US to fight Russia and win, rather than starting another war with no gameplan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,754
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    Yes but most of provincial England isn't having elections, so the NEV is more important than the actual seat totals, though even your chart has Labour losing more seats in May than the Tories
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,340
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034123843850100741

    ADS-B data shows that USAF bombers conducting strike missions on Iran from England are completely avoiding continental European airspace.

    It’s rather amusing that they’re flying around with transponders on in the first place!

    Yes countries can and do refuse overflight to foreign military aircraft carrying weapons, remember just before the Ukraine war kicked off when British transporters had to avoid Germany when flying to Kyiv?
    The paperwork for this sort of thing gets fucked up all the time so strange routes are often just down to sheer incompetence.

    I once had to get to Basra via Bahrain so they put me on an RAF Tristar ex Brize which was going to Kabul via Bahrain to drop off circa 250 Royal Marines. We got to Bahrain and the pot bellied RAF captain comes back and tells us they have no clearance to unload pax in Bahrain so I'll have to stay on for the Kabul legs and they'll drop me off at Bahrain on they way back after the clearances are sorted. Somewhere over the Hindu Kush we learn that Kabul Airport is being fucking mortared so we're not going there, we're diverting to Karachi. We have six hours on the ground in Karachi then back to Bahrain where to the surprise of nobody the paperwork is still fucked. The RAF give up at this point with the spirit of Per Ardua Ad Astra being missing in action. They do a crew change and fly us back to Brize. We spent 29 hours on that fucking Tristar to end up back where we started. The Marines were about ready to start stabbing RAF cabin crew and they asked me, as senior RN officer on board if I could control the Booties I replied that I wasn't even going to fucking try.
    Okay that’s a funny story, well done!
    Getting from Brize to Maggie's Pleasant Airfield via Trishaw was an even longer odyssey but we did eventually arrive at the desired destination that time.

    One of the main reasons A330MRTT was a PFI/contractor solution was the RAF's catastrophically bad management of Tristar ops.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    edited 12:50PM
    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    His obvious answered should be, which one of the hundreds of conversations I've had with Peter on hundreds of issues over 20 years does she specifically want me to comments on.

    You want to tie Starmer that close to Mandelson and somehow that helps him
    No Tory has never had an acquaintance with a paedo?

    Mandelson has been a major Labour political figure for 30 years

    Your point is?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 298
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It is and if he did not meet him he could not have been lied to

    The conservative back bencher Andrew Snowden just let rip into Starmer’s non answers to Kemi and Starmer response should be watched by anyone who thinks Starmer is not in deep trouble and he knows it
    Chris Mason -

    "Kemi Badenoch was able — via a specific question — to highlight that the prime minister didn’t speak to Mandelson himself prior to appointing him ambassador in Washington.
    The lack of such a conversation, reported by The Times in recent days, prompted Badenoch to repeatedly offer the prime minister to say this reporting was wrong — and he didn’t."
    Chris Mason

    Pmsl
    it's on the main BBC live blog under their coverage... but sure go and change your trousers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,180
    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Starmer appointed Mandelson and the others didn't, so he's vulnerable. Not changed by an element of "seemed like a good idea at the time". Plenty of us on here, including myself as I recall, thought there was some logic to appointing a turd to deal with The Turd, but we're keeping quiet about it now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,605
    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,893
    @samstein

    On the Strait of Hormuz we've gone from:

    1. Don't need help
    2. We need help
    3. Why aren't folks helping?
    4. Helps on the way
    5. Not telling you who is helping
    6. Helps not actually on the way but we don't need it anyway
    7. We may just abandon it and leave it to everyone else

    https://x.com/samstein/status/2034238708560417120?s=20
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,324

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269
    Good lord, someone thicker than Nick Timothy.

    I asked Tuberville about him calling Mamdani the enemy at the gates and if he thinks Mamdani is the enemy.

    “100% because, because he preaches and teaches Sharia law and he goes by the Quran. He was sworn in on the Quran. Look at the Quran. It preaches death to Americans.“

    https://x.com/EricMGarcia/status/2033927811614814583
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,715
    edited 12:55PM
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    His obvious answered should be, which one of the hundreds of conversations I've had with Peter on hundreds of issues over 20 years does she specifically want me to comments on.

    You want to tie Starmer that close to Mandelson and somehow that helps him
    No Tory has never had an acquaintance with a paedo?

    Mandelson has been a major Labour political figure for 30 years

    Your point is?
    If you can't see the connection to your suggestion then you are oblivious to what you are writing

    The expression you protest too much

    Starmer had a nightmare today
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    edited 12:58PM
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Labour's other failings
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,672
    Nigelb said:

    Good lord, someone thicker than Nick Timothy.

    I asked Tuberville about him calling Mamdani the enemy at the gates and if he thinks Mamdani is the enemy.

    “100% because, because he preaches and teaches Sharia law and he goes by the Quran. He was sworn in on the Quran. Look at the Quran. It preaches death to Americans.“

    https://x.com/EricMGarcia/status/2033927811614814583

    Impressively, even more anachronistic than those who think Saint George was Turkish.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,340
    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Starmer appointed Mandelson and the others didn't, so he's vulnerable. Not changed by an element of "seemed like a good idea at the time". Plenty of us on here, including myself as I recall, thought there was some logic to appointing a turd to deal with The Turd, but we're keeping quiet about it now.
    At the time I don't recall anyone on here saying that Mandy is a c-nt who was basically Epstein's cabana boy so why are we giving him the keys to Massachusetts Ave?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,847
    question: Mandelson
    answer: the war!

    Another week where it has become apparent PMQs is now utterly devalued. Starmer has put the final nail in the coffin. I know it has been going this way for decades now, but it’s clear that unless the Speaker actually starts attempting to force responses to the questions it’s now just the PM talking about whatever he wants for 10 minutes.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 145
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is bored of Iran now

    Trump: "I wonder what would happen if we 'finished off' what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called 'Straight?' That would get some of our non-responsive 'Allies' in gear, and fast!!! President DJT"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdgwofpl22o

    France and the UK have basically said they would.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,324
    Starmer shouldn’t have appointed Mandelson but the hypocrisy from the right wing press is vomit inducing .

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,830

    algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/i/status/2034227947339497714

    Lmao. What pointless polling. 'Churchill or an Owl?'

    What a waste of time.

    BoE can't keep Churchill on as they need to change designs for security reasons. As they do every few years in the modern age.

    You can argue for a different historical figure but not keeping Churchill.

    Personally I think it is time one of the WWI war poets was on.
    Benjamin Franklin has survived at least two security redesigns of the $100 bill, there’s no reason why Churchill can’t also survive.
    It's been general practice to change the figures on the banknotes every ten years. Hard to see how anyone could object to that.
    The world has changed in this regard. You can't put a stoat on a banknote without an extensive consultation with a million people and the threat of judicial review, parliamentary debate and a trillion social media comments, some threatening death to banknote producers. On the plus side you can declare war on Iran closing down the world economy on the whim of a single individual who feels it in their bones. So there are pluses as well as minuses.

    I suppose that it’s absurd ultra fascism to suggest that we could try the reverse… process?
    Yes.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975
    Sandpit said:

    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930

    That has been standard PMQ practice since Boris and occasional practice forever.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,298
    edited 1:05PM
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains. The basic seat numbers are wrong - there are 5,014 seats being contested.

    How, for instance, are the Shadow Elections for East and West Surrey to be assessed? Fortuanately, they are using the old County Council Divisions but electing two Councillors instead of one so take a seat which elected a Conservative County Councillor in 2021 - if two LDs are elected, is it two gains for the LDs and one loss for the Conservatives or is it two gains for the LDs and two losses for the Conservatives?

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    Starmer won't have to resign over Mandelson.

    No part of it is a resignation issue.

    Starmer will leave if and when he decides to, or if a leadership challenge over lots of issues weakens him to the point he has to go.

    Her question is actually puerile atypical if her 5 year old debating style.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410
    Dura_Ace said:

    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Starmer appointed Mandelson and the others didn't, so he's vulnerable. Not changed by an element of "seemed like a good idea at the time". Plenty of us on here, including myself as I recall, thought there was some logic to appointing a turd to deal with The Turd, but we're keeping quiet about it now.
    At the time I don't recall anyone on here saying that Mandy is a c-nt who was basically Epstein's cabana boy ?
    Hello

    I did and was threatened with a ban as RS said there was no evidence they were even friends
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    Dura_Ace said:

    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Starmer appointed Mandelson and the others didn't, so he's vulnerable. Not changed by an element of "seemed like a good idea at the time". Plenty of us on here, including myself as I recall, thought there was some logic to appointing a turd to deal with The Turd, but we're keeping quiet about it now.
    At the time I don't recall anyone on here saying that Mandy is a c-nt who was basically Epstein's cabana boy so why are we giving him the keys to Massachusetts Ave?
    Mandy being a c*** has been a staple of Peebeebies since i joined in 2006
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975
    edited 1:03PM

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
    Think of it like Boycott opening in a T20. Let him carry his bat through the innings and you have a guaranteed win, get him out early and who knows how the game will go?

    It is his batting partners who should be trying to get him run out.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410
    Scott_xP said:

    @samstein

    On the Strait of Hormuz we've gone from:

    1. Don't need help
    2. We need help
    3. Why aren't folks helping?
    4. Helps on the way
    5. Not telling you who is helping
    6. Helps not actually on the way but we don't need it anyway
    7. We may just abandon it and leave it to everyone else

    https://x.com/samstein/status/2034238708560417120?s=20

    Lol
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Panic response
    Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
    Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

    Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

    I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

    I think Kemi dropped the ball.
    Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
    If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

    Thats the point of it i think
    It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

    Nah. She dropped the ball.
    His obvious answered should be, which one of the hundreds of conversations I've had with Peter on hundreds of issues over 20 years does she specifically want me to comments on.

    You want to tie Starmer that close to Mandelson and somehow that helps him
    No Tory has never had an acquaintance with a paedo?

    Mandelson has been a major Labour political figure for 30 years

    Your point is?
    If you can't see the connection to your suggestion then you are oblivious to what you are writing

    The expression you protest too much

    Starmer had a nightmare today
    Badenoch had a mare...

    Stupid irrelevant question

    Ignoring massive issues

    Opens up now fact she has to sack Nick Timothy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269

    question: Mandelson
    answer: the war!

    Another week where it has become apparent PMQs is now utterly devalued. Starmer has put the final nail in the coffin. I know it has been going this way for decades now, but it’s clear that unless the Speaker actually starts attempting to force responses to the questions it’s now just the PM talking about whatever he wants for 10 minutes.

    I'll repeat my proposal to replace it with written questions, and (at least) monthly meetings of the Liaison Committee - which is a far tougher prospect for any PM.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    True dat
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    Starmer won't have to resign over Mandelson.

    No part of it is a resignation issue.

    Starmer will leave if and when he decides to, or if a leadership challenge over lots of issues weakens him to the point he has to go.

    Her question is actually puerile atypical if her 5 year old debating style.
    I've consistently said he will leave in 2027 when it is clear he can't win the next election. Not seen anything to change my mind and think 5.6 2027 an outstanding bet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,715
    nico67 said:

    Starmer shouldn’t have appointed Mandelson but the hypocrisy from the right wing press is vomit inducing .

    And what were Starmer and labour supporters saying with Johnson and partygate ?

    This is politics, and with 100,000 documents and what's app messages still to be released Mandelson's scandal will be a constant cause of concerns for labour
  • StarryStarry Posts: 145
    Nigelb said:

    Good lord, someone thicker than Nick Timothy.

    I asked Tuberville about him calling Mamdani the enemy at the gates and if he thinks Mamdani is the enemy.

    “100% because, because he preaches and teaches Sharia law and he goes by the Quran. He was sworn in on the Quran. Look at the Quran. It preaches death to Americans.“

    https://x.com/EricMGarcia/status/2033927811614814583

    True enough. The Quran pronounced war against the Cherokees.that were around at that time. They also warned against budget airlines and a loss of hotels due to AirBNB. Tuberville is a great student of palaeolithic texts like the Qur'an and Microsoft Works for Windows.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
    Think of it like Boycott opening in a T20. Let him carry his bat through the innings and you have a guaranteed win, get him out early and who knows how the game will go?

    It is his batting partners who should be trying to get him run out.....
    I disagree entirely. They want him gone and an even easier to beat bunny in the hutch
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
    Think of it like Boycott opening in a T20. Let him carry his bat through the innings and you have a guaranteed win, get him out early and who knows how the game will go?

    It is his batting partners who should be trying to get him run out.....
    Exactly

    There is nothing now in Mandelson that can dislodge Starmer

    Nothing.

    Meanwhile she blows 6 question, 3 of which she almost forgot to ask, and opens up a msiive real current problem for herself.

    Is Tommy Robinson right, is the Tory Party now too right wing for him
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    Yes but most of provincial England isn't having elections, so the NEV is more important than the actual seat totals, though even your chart has Labour losing more seats in May than the Tories
    I will settle for 1000 seat losses for SKS Lab and 500 seat gain for Zack

    Incidentally I was asked to stand as a Green candidate in a by election in May.

    Politely declined
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,888
    Sandpit said:

    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930

    None whatsoever. But there never was, really.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,415

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Mandelson is the one issue that might force Starmer out. As others have said already, there is a specific point on which Starmer might have misled the House. Trouble is, Starmer knows it which is why he won't answer the question, or the six questions.

    Contrast Kemi's approach with Starmer's more subtle, and more drawn out, entrapment of Boris on the same grounds four years ago.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    Sandpit said:

    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930

    None whatsoever. But there never was, really.
    Boris
    Boris
    Boris
    Boris

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
    Think of it like Boycott opening in a T20. Let him carry his bat through the innings and you have a guaranteed win, get him out early and who knows how the game will go?

    It is his batting partners who should be trying to get him run out.....
    I disagree entirely. They want him gone and an even easier to beat bunny in the hutch
    Have we done the one about SKS and the stick of rhubarb!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,888

    Sandpit said:

    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930

    That has been standard PMQ practice since Boris and occasional practice forever.
    If you actually want the factual answer to a factual question, PMQs is exactly the wrong way to get it, and always has been.

    It's a very stylised debate, really. Which makes Boris's fall asleep a result of a PMQs answer even more self-inflicted.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,808
    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains.

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
    This isn't based on a specific poll.
    It is based on the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all polls with a decay factor of 10%.

    This is for England only. The independents amounted to 114 out of 4,850 in May 2022.
    They are very difficult to model so I have ignored them.

    The Westminster VI polls are used to assess the relative swings, but the base is the actual number of seats in the locals in May 2022, and the swings are applied to that base.
    It shows the Reform getting a large number of gains - absurd as it might appear to you.

    On Betfair, Reform is on 1.13 (88% chance) of having the largest number of seats at the locals in May.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556

    nico67 said:

    Starmer shouldn’t have appointed Mandelson but the hypocrisy from the right wing press is vomit inducing .

    And what were Starmer and labour supporters saying with Johnson and partygate ?

    This is politics, and with 100,000 documents and what's app messages still to be released Mandelson's scandal will be a constant cause of concerns for labour
    The fact that the UK still enjoys lower Tariffs than any other Country is FULL justification for appointing Mandelson

    As many Right Wing commentators agreed

    He's saved tens of thousands of jobs
    He's saved billions of pounds

    That is a fact even you cannot deny
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269
    More detail on the failed nuclear talks.

    How ignorance, misunderstanding and obfuscation ended Iran nuclear talks
    Negotiators had reached agreement on key issues despite Trump team’s idiosyncratic approach. Two days later, war began
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/ignorance-misunderstanding-obfuscation-iran-nuclear-talks-trump
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,888
    Brixian59 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I’ve seen Prime Minsters dodge questions before. But I’ve never seen one literally and repeatedly just ignore what they’ve been asked. If this is what Starmer’s going to do, what’s the point.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/2034241937142898930

    None whatsoever. But there never was, really.
    Boris
    Boris
    Boris
    Boris

    Nah, much further back than that. Boris was, if he was anything, the point that an ongoing evolution tipped over into absurdity.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    It polls as the most negatively viewed scandal of this govt and second in salience only to winter fuel.
    A scandal is a scandal and people dont 'get bored of it' ' see partygate
    Badenoch would be better off waiting for the next batch of files to drop .

    Given current events she looks ridiculous cremating the Mandelson issue when the public are much more worried about the war and cost of living .
    No. When Starmer has to resign over Mandelson she will look prescient. Then take on the new leader over Laboyr's other failings
    Why would the Tories want Starmer to resign? He is unpopular without any path of redemption, surely she should want to keep him there?
    The opposition ALWAYS want the victory of a resignation
    Think of it like Boycott opening in a T20. Let him carry his bat through the innings and you have a guaranteed win, get him out early and who knows how the game will go?

    It is his batting partners who should be trying to get him run out.....
    I disagree entirely. They want him gone and an even easier to beat bunny in the hutch
    Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake......
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,715
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    Starmer shouldn’t have appointed Mandelson but the hypocrisy from the right wing press is vomit inducing .

    And what were Starmer and labour supporters saying with Johnson and partygate ?

    This is politics, and with 100,000 documents and what's app messages still to be released Mandelson's scandal will be a constant cause of concerns for labour
    The fact that the UK still enjoys lower Tariffs than any other Country is FULL justification for appointing Mandelson

    As many Right Wing commentators agreed

    He's saved tens of thousands of jobs
    He's saved billions of pounds

    That is a fact even you cannot deny
    There is no justification for appointing Mandelson whatsoever and Starmer will pay the price of his lack of diligence in not interviewing him for the most important position in the FO

    Never mind, we know you are desperate to defend the indefensible
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,269

    Dura_Ace said:

    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

    No body is interested in Mandelson

    He answered
    He apologised

    A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

    No one is.
    Starmer appointed Mandelson and the others didn't, so he's vulnerable. Not changed by an element of "seemed like a good idea at the time". Plenty of us on here, including myself as I recall, thought there was some logic to appointing a turd to deal with The Turd, but we're keeping quiet about it now.
    At the time I don't recall anyone on here saying that Mandy is a c-nt who was basically Epstein's cabana boy ?
    Hello

    I did and was threatened with a ban as RS said there was no evidence they were even friends
    Well there certainly is now !

    But remember that Robert is effectively liable for anything said here, so has to be rather more cautious than anyone would otherwise like.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,141
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
    Yoire effectively arguinf the US and Israel can skip what they like, and can't be challenged.
    That is a deeply stupid and immoral position to take.
    No, I am arguing that every independent, sovereign country has the right to make whatever decisions it chooses. Especially, democratic countries, have the right to have decisions made by their democratically-elected leaders.

    The USA and Israel have neither elected Starmer, nor Powell. Just because Powell thought that progress was acceptable, does not mean either of those nations democratically-elected leaders are obliged to agree with them.

    If Badenoch was our PM, then we might be making different choices to what Starmer and Powell are making, so why can't they?

    That is democracy in action. It is profoundly illiberal and undemocratic to deny sovereign countries the right to make their own independent decisions.

    The morality of the decisions is an entirely separate debate to the ability of independent, sovereign countries to make their own choices.
    No one is questioning the ability of countries to "make their own decisions"
    What we're saying is that they very likely straight out lied about the negotiations; something you were denying.

    Which is one of the reasons the UK has made its own sovereign independent decision to stay out of the mess.
    Where is the proof they lied?

    They said that the negotiations were not making sufficient progress. That is a subjective judgement, not an objective one.

    Powell thought they were. They didn't agree. Its not Powell's decision to make.

    You and I can both see the same objective facts and reach different subjective conclusions. A lie is an outright deceit, not a disagreement.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,722
    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    I reckon she gets up late and thinks WTF I am going to ask this week. Reaches for a coffee and a copy of the Daily Mail for a list. If this is preparation, I hate to think what an unprepared Kemi looks like. (My usual comment about Kemi / Katie Lam Superfan comment here)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    Labour and the Peter Files
    A farce in many tranches
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,929
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is bored of Iran now

    Trump: "I wonder what would happen if we 'finished off' what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called 'Straight?' That would get some of our non-responsive 'Allies' in gear, and fast!!! President DJT"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdgwofpl22o

    Can he not even spell "strait"? The leader of the free world. Jeez.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,298
    Barnesian said:

    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains.

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
    This isn't based on a specific poll.
    It is based on the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all polls with a decay factor of 10%.

    This is for England only. The independents amounted to 114 out of 4,850 in May 2022.
    They are very difficult to model so I have ignored them.

    The Westminster VI polls are used to assess the relative swings, but the base is the actual number of seats in the locals in May 2022, and the swings are applied to that base.
    It shows the Reform getting a large number of gains - absurd as it might appear to you.

    On Betfair, Reform is on 1.13 (88% chance) of having the largest number of seats at the locals in May.
    Yet you and I both know how people vote in local elections isn't always how they would vote in the GE and you forget areas which are affected by local Government re-organisation and are having elections out of sequence such as Surrey, Essex and Norfolk.

    I'd also offer more than a third of the contested seats are in London, most of which is or will be poor ground for Reform. On your projections, you suggest Reform might win 400 seats in London - they won't. I suspect top for Reform is 100-150 and that will depend on how many candidates they put up and where. They have one candidate so far in Newham - I'm sure they'll find a few more.

    I suspect you'll find the Independents hard to ignore in some parts of London.
  • wembleytorwembleytor Posts: 33

    On the topic:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    It seems very clear that the rise of the Greens in recent months could have been the rise of the Corbyn party had it not been for the chaos associated with that party's formation. Indeed, Corbyn's party might have done even better.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2034200089363624132



    EDIT: and this follow up comment is worth mulling over:

    theimperiumdidnothingwrong
    @imperimnowtwrng
    ·
    1h
    There is some interesting research to be done into why the Green Party factions can unite despite being fundamentally at odds about almost everything while Your Party's factions which agree about almost everything can't.

    https://x.com/imperimnowtwrng/status/2034206791412650058

    The existence of Your Party is very useful for the Greens. It provides a place for the obsessively factionalist far left types to argue amongst themselves, when they might otherwise be tempted to join the Greens and become a huge drag on anything ever getting done.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,546
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    That looks entirely plausible.

    I suspect that the LDs would do very slightly better than this, and the Greens very slightly worse. But other than that, I think it's pretty much spot on.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    edited 1:28PM
    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains.

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
    This isn't based on a specific poll.
    It is based on the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all polls with a decay factor of 10%.

    This is for England only. The independents amounted to 114 out of 4,850 in May 2022.
    They are very difficult to model so I have ignored them.

    The Westminster VI polls are used to assess the relative swings, but the base is the actual number of seats in the locals in May 2022, and the swings are applied to that base.
    It shows the Reform getting a large number of gains - absurd as it might appear to you.

    On Betfair, Reform is on 1.13 (88% chance) of having the largest number of seats at the locals in May.
    Yet you and I both know how people vote in local elections isn't always how they would vote in the GE and you forget areas which are affected by local Government re-organisation and are having elections out of sequence such as Surrey, Essex and Norfolk.

    I'd also offer more than a third of the contested seats are in London, most of which is or will be poor ground for Reform. On your projections, you suggest Reform might win 400 seats in London - they won't. I suspect top for Reform is 100-150 and that will depend on how many candidates they put up and where. They have one candidate so far in Newham - I'm sure they'll find a few more.

    I suspect you'll find the Independents hard to ignore in some parts of London.
    On reorganisation, the current ruling group on Norfolk Council the Tories have said devolution is off if they get back in because of the governments actions over it and the elections. Not that they look likely to get back in
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,605

    On the topic:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    It seems very clear that the rise of the Greens in recent months could have been the rise of the Corbyn party had it not been for the chaos associated with that party's formation. Indeed, Corbyn's party might have done even better.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2034200089363624132



    EDIT: and this follow up comment is worth mulling over:

    theimperiumdidnothingwrong
    @imperimnowtwrng
    ·
    1h
    There is some interesting research to be done into why the Green Party factions can unite despite being fundamentally at odds about almost everything while Your Party's factions which agree about almost everything can't.

    https://x.com/imperimnowtwrng/status/2034206791412650058

    The existence of Your Party is very useful for the Greens. It provides a place for the obsessively factionalist far left types to argue amongst themselves, when they might otherwise be tempted to join the Greens and become a huge drag on anything ever getting done.
    The amazing thing is that the Greens now have almost no interest in environmentalism, preferring instead to concentrate on an anti-British view on foreign policy where the world’s bad guys are somehow the good guys.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,975
    edited 1:29PM
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is bored of Iran now

    Trump: "I wonder what would happen if we 'finished off' what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called 'Straight?' That would get some of our non-responsive 'Allies' in gear, and fast!!! President DJT"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdgwofpl22o

    Can he not even spell "strait"? The leader of the free world. Jeez.
    That is a deliberate misspelling. I assume it is to convince his target audience that it is foreign, different, a long way from home, doesnt even deserve the correct spelling and can be safely ignored. Given his target audience have about as much understanding of and interest in the world as he does, it might even work.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,763
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is bored of Iran now

    Trump: "I wonder what would happen if we 'finished off' what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called 'Straight?' That would get some of our non-responsive 'Allies' in gear, and fast!!! President DJT"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdgwofpl22o

    Can he not even spell "strait"? The leader of the free world. Jeez.
    He sees everything in terms of poker...
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556
    Battlebus said:

    nico67 said:

    Badenoch needs to stop droning on about Mandelson.

    There are many more important issues facing the country and she needs to stop flogging a dead horse .

    The public had weeks of Mandelson and this just looks self-indulgent , it might please her team but most of the public who watch PMQs which isn’t many to begin with will just be thinking enough already !

    I reckon she gets up late and thinks WTF I am going to ask this week. Reaches for a coffee and a copy of the Daily Mail for a list. If this is preparation, I hate to think what an unprepared Kemi looks like. (My usual comment about Kemi / Katie Lam Superfan comment here)
    She has a reputation in her own Party for being lazy.

    Any decent LOTO and this was evidenced by Tory and Labour always have a plan B...

    She could have thrown 2 lobs on Mandelson, then switched to something far more relevant and important...

    Likewise where has the old LOTO tactic gone, ask 3 questions, sit down, wait let's others ask a few and come back in late on a different topic.

    If I was PM I'd hate that as you'd be constantly on edge waiting to see what was coming...
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,556
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    That looks entirely plausible.

    I suspect that the LDs would do very slightly better than this, and the Greens very slightly worse. But other than that, I think it's pretty much spot on.
    Do Tories would be 5th on seats won
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,501
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is bored of Iran now

    Trump: "I wonder what would happen if we 'finished off' what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called 'Straight?' That would get some of our non-responsive 'Allies' in gear, and fast!!! President DJT"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhdgwofpl22o

    That restless whimsical mind yet again musing. Perhaps a novel coming?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,763
    Scott_xP said:

    @samstein

    On the Strait of Hormuz we've gone from:

    1. Don't need help
    2. We need help
    3. Why aren't folks helping?
    4. Helps on the way
    5. Not telling you who is helping
    6. Helps not actually on the way but we don't need it anyway
    7. We may just abandon it and leave it to everyone else

    https://x.com/samstein/status/2034238708560417120?s=20

    Somewhere in there was "Your mum smells of poo..."
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,410
    I see Brent cruise trading above $108 a barrel

    Trump tax about to hit 20p a litre on diesel (13p a litre on unleaded)
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,141
    Sandpit said:

    On the topic:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    It seems very clear that the rise of the Greens in recent months could have been the rise of the Corbyn party had it not been for the chaos associated with that party's formation. Indeed, Corbyn's party might have done even better.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2034200089363624132



    EDIT: and this follow up comment is worth mulling over:

    theimperiumdidnothingwrong
    @imperimnowtwrng
    ·
    1h
    There is some interesting research to be done into why the Green Party factions can unite despite being fundamentally at odds about almost everything while Your Party's factions which agree about almost everything can't.

    https://x.com/imperimnowtwrng/status/2034206791412650058

    The existence of Your Party is very useful for the Greens. It provides a place for the obsessively factionalist far left types to argue amongst themselves, when they might otherwise be tempted to join the Greens and become a huge drag on anything ever getting done.
    The amazing thing is that the Greens now have almost no interest in environmentalism, preferring instead to concentrate on an anti-British view on foreign policy where the world’s bad guys are somehow the good guys.
    It would be amazing except they've basically just been infiltrated by the far left, who have long since hated Britain, the West and had a perverted, inverse foreign policy where the world's bad guys are the good guys in their eyes. The Green Party of the environment is dead.

    In environmental terms it is like the emerald jewel wasp turning a cockroach into a "zombie" creature it controls. The original host is dead and its body is now controlled by something else entirely.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,901
    edited 1:40PM

    I see Brent cruise trading above $108 a barrel

    Trump tax about to hit 20p a litre on diesel (13p a litre on unleaded)

    The Iranians are now promising to hit these targets after the bombing of their gas field and refineries.

    'Urgent Alert: Keep away from oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar
    To citizens and residents around the following facilities:

    1) Samref refinery - Saudi Arabia

    2) Al-Hussein gas field - UAE

    3) Jubail Petrochemical Complex - Jubail, Saudi Arabia

    4) Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex and Mesaieed Holding Company (affiliated with Chevron) - Qatar

    5) Ras Laffan Refinery (Phases 1 and 2) - Qatar'
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,016

    On the topic:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    It seems very clear that the rise of the Greens in recent months could have been the rise of the Corbyn party had it not been for the chaos associated with that party's formation. Indeed, Corbyn's party might have done even better.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2034200089363624132



    EDIT: and this follow up comment is worth mulling over:

    theimperiumdidnothingwrong
    @imperimnowtwrng
    ·
    1h
    There is some interesting research to be done into why the Green Party factions can unite despite being fundamentally at odds about almost everything while Your Party's factions which agree about almost everything can't.

    https://x.com/imperimnowtwrng/status/2034206791412650058

    The existence of Your Party is very useful for the Greens. It provides a place for the obsessively factionalist far left types to argue amongst themselves, when they might otherwise be tempted to join the Greens and become a huge drag on anything ever getting done.
    Many a true word spoken in jest...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,708
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/reform-uk-most-disliked-party-145917709.html

    Some interesting data on 'like/dislike' of parties in Scotland suggesting Reform may struggle in May

    Also Reform are detoxifying the Scots Tories a bit BUT also making them increasingly irrelevant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,754
    edited 1:44PM
    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains. The basic seat numbers are wrong - there are 5,014 seats being contested.

    How, for instance, are the Shadow Elections for East and West Surrey to be assessed? Fortuanately, they are using the old County Council Divisions but electing two Councillors instead of one so take a seat which elected a Conservative County Councillor in 2021 - if two LDs are elected, is it two gains for the LDs and one loss for the Conservatives or is it two gains for the LDs and two losses for the Conservatives?

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
    You may not like it but Tory and Labour MPs will be watching the NEV in May like a hawk. Whicher of SKS or Badenoch sees their party second to Reform on NEV will likely survive, whichever sees their party coming third will almost certainly face a leadership challenge or VONC
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,901

    I see Brent cruise trading above $108 a barrel

    Trump tax about to hit 20p a litre on diesel (13p a litre on unleaded)

    The Iranians are now promising to hit these targets after the bombing of their gas field and refineries.

    'Urgent Alert: Keep away from oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar
    To citizens and residents around the following facilities:

    1) Samref refinery - Saudi Arabia

    2) Al-Hussein gas field - UAE

    3) Jubail Petrochemical Complex - Jubail, Saudi Arabia

    4) Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex and Mesaieed Holding Company (affiliated with Chevron) - Qatar

    5) Ras Laffan Refinery (Phases 1 and 2) - Qatar'
    Oh and the Haifa refinery.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,509
    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    stodge said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (-2)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-2)
    GRN: 13% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    13-16 Mar.
    Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

    Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't
    Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:


    The More In Common changes are all within Margin of Error and their poll was earlier than YouGov which was in the field Sunday and Monday and has very different numbers presumably because YouGov's methodology is different.

    No doubt we'll all continue to emphasise the polls which show our party of choice in the best light.

    Using Westminster VI polls to extrapolate local election numbers should be a crime punishable by ritual dismbowelling - I mean, seriously? No mention of Independents and absurd numbers of Reform gains.

    The only thing worse would be trying to use local election NEV to decide if your leader should be sacked or not - actually, it isn't, grotesque use of sub samples is worse.
    This isn't based on a specific poll.
    It is based on the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all polls with a decay factor of 10%.

    This is for England only. The independents amounted to 114 out of 4,850 in May 2022.
    They are very difficult to model so I have ignored them.

    The Westminster VI polls are used to assess the relative swings, but the base is the actual number of seats in the locals in May 2022, and the swings are applied to that base.
    It shows the Reform getting a large number of gains - absurd as it might appear to you.

    On Betfair, Reform is on 1.13 (88% chance) of having the largest number of seats at the locals in May.
    Yet you and I both know how people vote in local elections isn't always how they would vote in the GE and you forget areas which are affected by local Government re-organisation and are having elections out of sequence such as Surrey, Essex and Norfolk.

    I'd also offer more than a third of the contested seats are in London, most of which is or will be poor ground for Reform. On your projections, you suggest Reform might win 400 seats in London - they won't. I suspect top for Reform is 100-150 and that will depend on how many candidates they put up and where. They have one candidate so far in Newham - I'm sure they'll find a few more.

    I suspect you'll find the Independents hard to ignore in some parts of London.
    Waves from Ilford North!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,808

    Sandpit said:

    On the topic:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    It seems very clear that the rise of the Greens in recent months could have been the rise of the Corbyn party had it not been for the chaos associated with that party's formation. Indeed, Corbyn's party might have done even better.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/2034200089363624132



    EDIT: and this follow up comment is worth mulling over:

    theimperiumdidnothingwrong
    @imperimnowtwrng
    ·
    1h
    There is some interesting research to be done into why the Green Party factions can unite despite being fundamentally at odds about almost everything while Your Party's factions which agree about almost everything can't.

    https://x.com/imperimnowtwrng/status/2034206791412650058

    The existence of Your Party is very useful for the Greens. It provides a place for the obsessively factionalist far left types to argue amongst themselves, when they might otherwise be tempted to join the Greens and become a huge drag on anything ever getting done.
    The amazing thing is that the Greens now have almost no interest in environmentalism, preferring instead to concentrate on an anti-British view on foreign policy where the world’s bad guys are somehow the good guys.
    It would be amazing except they've basically just been infiltrated by the far left, who have long since hated Britain, the West and had a perverted, inverse foreign policy where the world's bad guys are the good guys in their eyes. The Green Party of the environment is dead.

    In environmental terms it is like the emerald jewel wasp turning a cockroach into a "zombie" creature it controls. The original host is dead and its body is now controlled by something else entirely.
    Like the GOP and Trump?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,722
    edited 1:53PM
    Do we have a Navy type on PB who may have an insight into how to deal with drones in Hormuz.

    Depending on which source you check, the Russians have 3rd or 4th most powerful navy in the world. And yet it struggles to operate in the Black Sea, a much larger body of water than Hormuz. In addition, a convoy moves at the pace of the slowest and bunches up assets like a fairground shooting gallery. And yet Trump wants other navies to take the lead.

    Someone has made sure he understands the issue facing the US Navy and now wants to back out by finding someone else to blame apart from Witkoff and Kushner. He also fails to notice that some people in his circle may have split allegiances.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,624

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/reform-uk-most-disliked-party-145917709.html

    Some interesting data on 'like/dislike' of parties in Scotland suggesting Reform may struggle in May

    Also Reform are detoxifying the Scots Tories a bit BUT also making them increasingly irrelevant

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/reform-uk-most-disliked-party-145917709.html

    Some interesting data on 'like/dislike' of parties in Scotland suggesting Reform may struggle in May

    Also Reform are detoxifying the Scots Tories a bit BUT also making them increasingly irrelevant

    This link connects to a discussion about among the pollsters, including Sir John Curtice, about Reform's slippage.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/polling-guru-says-no-doubt-173739394.html

    An interesting question is how dependent Reform are on a sense of momentum - "winning here", as it were - and, if they get caught by one of the other parties, whether the bubble may further deflate?

    FWIW, I see no immediate reason why Reform should lose its lead and its quite possible they could stay ahead until the actual GE campaign starts. That's the point when things are most likely to change - when people are faced with the prospect of the party-of-protest becoming the party-in-power.

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