I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
NATO (other than the US) is fiercely opposed to this as well. The US is running out of allies and Trump doesn't seem to care.
Trump doesn't care. He'd besotted with the erroneous idea that US armies have never lost a war, whereas in fact they've never won one unaided since the Spanish American one around 1900.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
Looks good, is premium space in the air raid shelter included?
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
Trump and his coterie are stark raving mad and utterly immoral. Who knows what they might do in extremis? Interesting times.
If America used tactical nukes, the Arab world would say it was Israel.
And have the cover to evict the US bases.
I do wonder whether evicting the US bases is the way this ultimately plays out.
And the Saudis determinedly getting their own nukes, with Pakistani assistance. Not that Iran's own nuclear ambitions will be ended.
I fully expect the net outcome of this war will be nuclear proliferation.
To me this is the rational response of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Would Russia have contemplated such a move if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear deterrent? Would the world put up with the idiocy of North Korea if it didn't have a nuclear capacity? Tom Lehrer's "Who's next" is coming back into vogue. And the more there are the more risk that they end up being used.
The reaction towards nuclear states is very different than that towards non-nuclear states. You can’t just bomb Moscow or Pyongyang if you’re the US or UK, because you know what the reaction might be. Hence the determination to hold Iran short of their promise to construct nukes.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
I genuinely enjoyed my ten days in Odessa
Five star hotels were about £40 a night. The city is beautiful, historic and compelling. The bars were buzzing and the food was great
Sure my street got droned a few times, but that added to the excitement
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
What like?
Fuckoff big conventional bomb?
Because I've watched Goldeneye recently, I also looked up EMP weapons:
Yes, the United States has developed and deployed non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons, primarily for tactical, precision strikes. The most advanced example is the Counter-Electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP), a cruise missile developed by the U.S. Air Force and Boeing. CHAMP uses high-power microwaves to disable electronic systems without causing physical destruction, and it has been successfully tested and is now operational.
Something with a bit of flash and bang, shock and awe, ideally very effective with minimal loss of life.
To end the war the US needs to achieve one of two things. 1. Topple the regime (which is proving harder than anticipated). 2. Offer the Iranians a deal that is preferable to continuing the war.
The main difficulty with (2) is that the US may also feel that it has to walk away with something to justify launching the war in the first place, and it's not obvious what the US can demand of the Iranians that the Iranians will give up, now that the Iranians can see that they can hurt the Americans in return.
I don't see how a flash-bang weapon helps create that leverage, if it's short of regime toppling power. One thing that might change the calculus of the Iranian regime would be if their resistance were to become futile - i.e. if the US was able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, and defend oil infrastructure across the Middle East from drones. But that seems unlikely.
Shutting off export of Iranian oil would be more destructive to Iran than several nukes.
Their entire economy runs on oil revenue. Their Jedi (@TSE) religious leadership *likes* the Resource Curse effect. It means they control the money. Lots of dictatorships and oligarchies like this pattern (Chavez used to boast of it)
If it is turned off, I’m not sure how long before food etc stops.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
What are we to take from this? The only conclusion appears to be that Charlie Simpson isn’t a good journalist.
Charlie Simpson scooped Rosindell's defection to Reform the day before it happened with Rosindell issuing a denial too
Indeed. And Charlie Simpson is either the houndiest newshound in the country, despite having to go to school during the day, or someone is feeding him stuff.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
Trump and his coterie are stark raving mad and utterly immoral. Who knows what they might do in extremis? Interesting times.
If America used tactical nukes, the Arab world would say it was Israel.
And have the cover to evict the US bases.
I do wonder whether evicting the US bases is the way this ultimately plays out.
And the Saudis determinedly getting their own nukes, with Pakistani assistance. Not that Iran's own nuclear ambitions will be ended.
I fully expect the net outcome of this war will be nuclear proliferation.
To me this is the rational response of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Would Russia have contemplated such a move if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear deterrent? Would the world put up with the idiocy of North Korea if it didn't have a nuclear capacity? Tom Lehrer's "Who's next" is coming back into vogue. And the more there are the more risk that they end up being used.
Yes
Note that Putin demands control over all nuclear reactors in Ukraine and all spent fuel as part of his “peace plans”.
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
Ooh lovely. You far from the sail or the giant wheel ?
We had a week in Jumeirah for my wife’s fiftieth and it was just superb.
Highlight was a night in the desert sleeping under the stars. My back was an ‘all you can eat buffet’ for the mozzies but waking up and seeing the sky and the stars early in the morning. It was marvellous.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
Like what? No way America is gonna do a ground invasion. They'd quite possibly lose, for a start
Japan 1945 shows you can defeat a totally hostile, entirely committed, fight-to-the-death enemy, and you can do it from the air. If you use nukes
1945 was a time when only the United States had any kind of nuclear technology and even then the declaration of war by the USSR was at least as significant. We now know that there were only sufficient materials for three nuclear devices and if Japan had chosen not to surrender, there would have been a very long gap before the fourth bomb was detonated. The element of surprise and the fact that Japan did not know that they were not facing the immediate obliteration of all of their cities, together with the Soviet news convinced Hirohito that the situation was hopeless. It was indeed fairly hopeless, though not as hopeless as the Japanese believed.
Now, 81 years later, nuclear technology is widely disseminated, and a first use of nuclear weapons might trigger a surprise attack on the United States. What would Trump do if after he has used nuclear weapons he finds a suitcase n-bomb has just taken out New York? Iran becomes the innocent victim, Trump faces a storm of protest at home and abroad, and the determination of everyone from Michigan, Montreal or Moscow to get rid of him as quickly as possible. Using nukes would be a strategic disaster for the US.
Of course the problem is that the current situation is also a strategic disaster for the US. Trump and his crew of cranks, drunks and fools could still decide to make the fatal decision. Moscow might actually fire back too, of course, Iran is their ally.
The US doesn't win with nukes, it loses differently and potentially a lot faster.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
It’s a superb match so far.
Perhaps a battering for England would be a good thing but I’d love one of these two to win the championship.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
Looks good, is premium space in the air raid shelter included?
I’m not going to post a photo, but in the basement they have a gym and a couple of squash courts that they’ve turned into a ‘shelter in place’ room, with mattresses and pillows.
Everyone still here is a resident who’s not leaving, so can’t see much of an uptake when the siren goes off.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
Like what? No way America is gonna do a ground invasion. They'd quite possibly lose, for a start
Japan 1945 shows you can defeat a totally hostile, entirely committed, fight-to-the-death enemy, and you can do it from the air. If you use nukes
1945 was a time when only the United States had any kind of nuclear technology and even then the declaration of war by the USSR was at least as significant. We now know that there were only sufficient materials for three nuclear devices and if Japan had chosen not to surrender, there would have been a very long gap before the fourth bomb was detonated. The element of surprise and the fact that Japan did not know that they were not facing the immediate obliteration of all of their cities, together with the Soviet news convinced Hirohito that the situation was hopeless. It was indeed fairly hopeless, though not as hopeless as the Japanese believed.
Now, 81 years later, nuclear technology is widely disseminated, and a first use of nuclear weapons might trigger a surprise attack on the United States. What would Trump do if after he has used nuclear weapons he finds a suitcase n-bomb has just taken out New York? Iran becomes the innocent victim, Trump faces a storm of protest at home and abroad, and the determination of everyone from Michigan, Montreal or Moscow to get rid of him as quickly as possible. Using nukes would be a strategic disaster for the US.
Of course the problem is that the current situation is also a strategic disaster for the US. Trump and his crew of cranks, drunks and fools could still decide to make the fatal decision. Moscow might actually fire back too, of course, Iran is their ally.
The US doesn't win with nukes, it loses differently and potentially a lot faster.
Yes, quite possibly
Dropping a nuke is such an epochal event it's like a kind of historic singularity, with an event horizon, it becomes impossible to predict what comes next as there are so many imponderables. Incidentally, there are pundits on X plausibly explaining why the war might see ISRAEL drop a nuke on Iran
Scary times
My point is that I can see a kind of logic where the half-crazy Trump opts to press the button. Didn't he once ask why America shouldn't stop hurricanes with nukes?
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
What like?
Fuckoff big conventional bomb?
Because I've watched Goldeneye recently, I also looked up EMP weapons:
Yes, the United States has developed and deployed non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons, primarily for tactical, precision strikes. The most advanced example is the Counter-Electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP), a cruise missile developed by the U.S. Air Force and Boeing. CHAMP uses high-power microwaves to disable electronic systems without causing physical destruction, and it has been successfully tested and is now operational.
Something with a bit of flash and bang, shock and awe, ideally very effective with minimal loss of life.
To end the war the US needs to achieve one of two things. 1. Topple the regime (which is proving harder than anticipated). 2. Offer the Iranians a deal that is preferable to continuing the war.
The main difficulty with (2) is that the US may also feel that it has to walk away with something to justify launching the war in the first place, and it's not obvious what the US can demand of the Iranians that the Iranians will give up, now that the Iranians can see that they can hurt the Americans in return.
I don't see how a flash-bang weapon helps create that leverage, if it's short of regime toppling power. One thing that might change the calculus of the Iranian regime would be if their resistance were to become futile - i.e. if the US was able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, and defend oil infrastructure across the Middle East from drones. But that seems unlikely.
Shutting off export of Iranian oil would be more destructive to Iran than several nukes.
Their entire economy runs on oil revenue. Their Jedi (@TSE) religious leadership *likes* the Resource Curse effect. It means they control the money. Lots of dictatorships and oligarchies like this pattern (Chavez used to boast of it)
If it is turned off, I’m not sure how long before food etc stops.
That isn't as simple as capturing Karg Island though, as I think that's not the only place Iran processes oil, and apparently they've been winding it down recently.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
Ooh lovely. You far from the sail or the giant wheel ?
We had a week in Jumeirah for my wife’s fiftieth and it was just superb.
Highlight was a night in the desert sleeping under the stars. My back was an ‘all you can eat buffet’ for the mozzies but waking up and seeing the sky and the stars early in the morning. It was marvellous.
We’re on the outside of the palm island, close to Atlantis resort, great views of the city but it’s a little cloudy today.
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
What like?
Fuckoff big conventional bomb?
Because I've watched Goldeneye recently, I also looked up EMP weapons:
Yes, the United States has developed and deployed non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons, primarily for tactical, precision strikes. The most advanced example is the Counter-Electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP), a cruise missile developed by the U.S. Air Force and Boeing. CHAMP uses high-power microwaves to disable electronic systems without causing physical destruction, and it has been successfully tested and is now operational.
Something with a bit of flash and bang, shock and awe, ideally very effective with minimal loss of life.
To end the war the US needs to achieve one of two things. 1. Topple the regime (which is proving harder than anticipated). 2. Offer the Iranians a deal that is preferable to continuing the war.
The main difficulty with (2) is that the US may also feel that it has to walk away with something to justify launching the war in the first place, and it's not obvious what the US can demand of the Iranians that the Iranians will give up, now that the Iranians can see that they can hurt the Americans in return.
I don't see how a flash-bang weapon helps create that leverage, if it's short of regime toppling power. One thing that might change the calculus of the Iranian regime would be if their resistance were to become futile - i.e. if the US was able to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, and defend oil infrastructure across the Middle East from drones. But that seems unlikely.
Shutting off export of Iranian oil would be more destructive to Iran than several nukes.
Their entire economy runs on oil revenue. Their Jedi (@TSE) religious leadership *likes* the Resource Curse effect. It means they control the money. Lots of dictatorships and oligarchies like this pattern (Chavez used to boast of it)
If it is turned off, I’m not sure how long before food etc stops.
That isn't as simple as capturing Karg Island though, as I think that's not the only place Iran processes oil, and apparently they've been winding it down recently.
No, it wouldn’t be.
But if the US starts targeting the oil terminals they would be done in short order.
Turning off the Iranian oil would be an economic disaster for everyone, of course.
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
Like what? No way America is gonna do a ground invasion. They'd quite possibly lose, for a start
Japan 1945 shows you can defeat a totally hostile, entirely committed, fight-to-the-death enemy, and you can do it from the air. If you use nukes
1945 was a time when only the United States had any kind of nuclear technology and even then the declaration of war by the USSR was at least as significant. We now know that there were only sufficient materials for three nuclear devices and if Japan had chosen not to surrender, there would have been a very long gap before the fourth bomb was detonated. The element of surprise and the fact that Japan did not know that they were not facing the immediate obliteration of all of their cities, together with the Soviet news convinced Hirohito that the situation was hopeless. It was indeed fairly hopeless, though not as hopeless as the Japanese believed.
Now, 81 years later, nuclear technology is widely disseminated, and a first use of nuclear weapons might trigger a surprise attack on the United States. What would Trump do if after he has used nuclear weapons he finds a suitcase n-bomb has just taken out New York? Iran becomes the innocent victim, Trump faces a storm of protest at home and abroad, and the determination of everyone from Michigan, Montreal or Moscow to get rid of him as quickly as possible. Using nukes would be a strategic disaster for the US.
Of course the problem is that the current situation is also a strategic disaster for the US. Trump and his crew of cranks, drunks and fools could still decide to make the fatal decision. Moscow might actually fire back too, of course, Iran is their ally.
The US doesn't win with nukes, it loses differently and potentially a lot faster.
Yes, quite possibly
Dropping a nuke is such an epochal event it's like a kind of historic singularity, with an event horizon, it becomes impossible to predict what comes next as there are so many imponderables. Incidentally, there are pundits on X plausibly explaining why the war might see ISRAEL drop a nuke on Iran
Scary times
My point is that I can see a kind of logic where the half-crazy Trump opts to press the button. Didn't he once ask why America shouldn't stop hurricanes with nukes?
Well, agreed that if Trump is nuts then all bets are off, but although blocking the straits of Hormuz and indeed the Bab el Mandab is existential for Europe and Asia, it isn't for the US. the current situation is caused by Trump's ego, and probably only ends when his ego says so...
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
RIP a decent MP and minister of the New Labour mould
Musn't speak ill of the dead and all that, but didn't he get stripped of his parliamentary seat and barred from holding public office?
He was a little over aggressive in his approach to the LDs in 2010 which meant there was a by election he could not stand in but it was the LDs
"A little"...he was the first peson in 100 years to get ejected for lying about his opponent as he "sought to make white folk angry"
As I said, his opponents were the LDs who of course never tell any lies about their opponents or ever use dodgy barcharts, no definitely not
To be the only person to get done in 100 years suggest it was a tad more serious than a little over the line / fudging the y axis on a bar chart. Not to pile on, but that wasn't his only scandal.
But certainly not a Bad Al type character, who is a disgraceful individual. An arsonist turned fire consultant who says of course fires are terrible now and his involvement in such things were massively overblown.
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
"Phil Woolas, former Labour minister, dies of brain cancer aged 66 Former Oldham East and Saddleworth MP remained in Westminster for New Labour’s entire 13 years in power"
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
Ins'allah that is him eyeing up some kind of termination, where he can declare victory and call off the whole shooting match
You’re not suggesting a congruence between Trump and Mexican street food?
TACO
Yes, of sorts
I should say that while I think nukes are horribly possible, they are still fairly unlikely. My prediction is that this probably ends with Trump doing something dramatic but not world-shaking, then declaring "victory" and speedily bringing everyone home. Crisis averted
Every so often someone resurrects this quote. I'm 100% for it.
Roger Ebert on ‘The Mummy’
“There is within me an unslaked hunger for preposterous adventure movies. I resist the bad ones, but when a "Congo" or an "Anaconda" comes along, my heart leaps up and I cave in. "The Mummy" is a movie like that. There is hardly a thing I can say in its favor, except that I was cheered by nearly every minute of it. I cannot argue for the script, the direction, the acting or even the mummy, but I can say that I was not bored and sometimes I was unreasonably pleased. There is a little immaturity stuck away in the crannies of even the most judicious of us, and we should treasure it.”
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
The RFU shouldn’t hide behind Borthwick though. They need to stop the stupid ban on players at French clubs. Would be like the English FA not allowing overseas based players at the World Cup so we can’t pick Harry Kane, and if they were considered good enough at the time, Trent Alexander Arnold and Marcus Rashford.
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
The RFU shouldn’t hide behind Borthwick though. They need to stop the stupid ban on players at French clubs. Would be like the English FA not allowing overseas based players at the World Cup so we can’t pick Harry Kane, and if they were considered good enough at the time, Trent Alexander Arnold and Marcus Rashford.
Yes, indeed
I presume it is to protect the English clubs but it's not even doing that, particularly
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
The RFU shouldn’t hide behind Borthwick though. They need to stop the stupid ban on players at French clubs. Would be like the English FA not allowing overseas based players at the World Cup so we can’t pick Harry Kane, and if they were considered good enough at the time, Trent Alexander Arnold and Marcus Rashford.
I am surprised there hasn't been some sort of a legal challenge. It is costing a lot of those players in France £100k's a year.
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
The RFU shouldn’t hide behind Borthwick though. They need to stop the stupid ban on players at French clubs. Would be like the English FA not allowing overseas based players at the World Cup so we can’t pick Harry Kane, and if they were considered good enough at the time, Trent Alexander Arnold and Marcus Rashford.
Yes, indeed
I presume it is to protect the English clubs but it's not even doing that, particularly
Yes, was protectionist as the English clubs can’t or won’t pay top players what the French can. If they look at the Champions League in football they will see that even though the English clubs have a massive financial advantage over all but four European clubs they aren’t dominating the competition.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
You daren't say otherwise or you would be arrested!
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Trump is saying the Iranians are wanting a deal but he doesn't want to accept it.
Ins'allah that is him eyeing up some kind of termination, where he can declare victory and call off the whole shooting match
You’re not suggesting a congruence between Trump and Mexican street food?
TACO
Yes, of sorts
I should say that while I think nukes are horribly possible, they are still fairly unlikely. My prediction is that this probably ends with Trump doing something dramatic but not world-shaking, then declaring "victory" and speedily bringing everyone home. Crisis averted
But, what will Israel do?
Trump could back off, while saying
"We are watching. If we don't like what we see - we'll be back. To destroy everything you have rebuilt - and more."
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
If I was Starmer I'd be sorely tempted to phone him up and tell him to do one.
I'm not sure that after the Tories totally hollowed out all of our armed services and made a bigger feck up with what little procurement they did, that we have much worthwhile to send.
The Golden Hind is sat here round the corner, with a good tow and the canons primed could be there under tow in 2 months.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
Any rumour that Katie has been in talks with Reform about joining them is categorically untrue. Katie is not going anywhere and fully backs Kemi who is doing a great job both as Leader and of demolishing this disastrous Labour government."
I'm not going anywhere. Kemi is doing a fantastic job. I'm more convinced than ever that the solutions to the country's problems are Conservative solutions, and the Conservative Party will implement them.
It’s only right that I report on your denial, as I do with all stories. But for the record, I stand by my sources, and you are in talks about defecting. Have a good weekend, Katie.
It is the Tories and Reform's mission to hang the blame for this situation where it belongs - a catastrophic energy policy whereby British deomstic energy was already some of the world's most expensive, and our industrial energy was already the world's most expensive. We cannot control what happens in the world. We can (and should) ensure we have a robust mixed energy system whereby we are a net exporter of energy, and the domestic hydrocarbon industry is a huge part of that. PM has neither the balls nor the brains to change energy policy or get rid of the economy destroyer out of the energy department, so there's nothing he can do except take it.
A domestic hydrocarbon industry doesn’t protect you against high oil prices. What does is a decarbonised energy industry.
Depends what you mean by "protect". If we had been maximising the production of the North Sea instead of aiming repeated rounds at our own feet we would be producing much closer to the equivalent of what we consume.
Now, that production would still be subject to international market prices and it would not solve the problem that what we produced would not exactly match our needs but, and this is the important part, UK plc would have a windfall from those higher prices roughly equivalent to the loss sustained by those higher prices. This means that the economic impact would be far less severe than a scenario where we are importing so much of our demand. It would give us the option, for example, of using that windfall to offset the cost to the public by reducing duty rates.
And you are ignoring the fact that through the interconnectors we increasingly have an international market in electrical energy. If you can sell electrical output to the continent at X why would you sell it to the domestic consumer at (X-Y)?
Much closer? Not sure about that. Even taking the industry lobby at face value it's only about 10-15ppt difference. I agree with the economic arguments but we have to be careful not to overstate it, particularly from a security standpoint.
Current recoverable reserves in the UKCS are around 15 billion BOE In the history of the UKCS we have so far extracted around 35 billion BOE. So yes, with the right incentives and the right long term fiscal environment we could have been far closed to meeting our needs. Gas of course is a different matter but even there we couldhave radically reduced our reliance on imports.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
We have a new vacancy for an Information and Data Governance Officer, whose role will be to ensure that we have the most robust and operationally accessible information, aligning to our world-leading vision.
In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.
Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.
(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)
What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.
So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.
Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.
Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC
How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be
They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....
I would imagine there are a few things just short of nuclear that could be done.
Like what? No way America is gonna do a ground invasion. They'd quite possibly lose, for a start
Japan 1945 shows you can defeat a totally hostile, entirely committed, fight-to-the-death enemy, and you can do it from the air. If you use nukes
It wasn't just the nukes, though. (Although they were the final coup de grace.)
It was also the submarine blockade of Japan, that meant that people were starving to death. And it was the fact that the bulk of Japan's army was stuck in China.
Don't forget too, that peace was only agreed -even after the nukes- when the US agreed that Hirohito could continue as Emperor. Without that concession, the war might have dragged on even longer.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
When did you start expecting even minimal consistency from Trump ?
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
Our repsonse should not change. YOu made the mess so you clear it up. No help from us. I would hope France would be the same.
Lot of Hungarian political content in X, ahead of the election. Single most shocking I've seen today is the *before* picture of Orban.
The third president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, wrote an open letter to Orbán
"Viktor, look at this photo.
We stood side by side at a time when the future of our region seemed to be shared, clear, and bright. Back then, we both believed that freedom was not just a word, but the highest gift worth fighting for. I remember you differently. I remember a leader who understood the price of dignity and knew what liberation from imperial oppression meant.
Today, I look at your actions and ask myself: where has that Viktor gone? How did it happen that a person who saw the rise of free Hungary is now playing into the hands of forces that want to destroy the freedom of a neighboring country?
Ukraine is bleeding today for those same values we once debated at the negotiation table. We are defending not only our land but also the peace of your country, as well as all of Europe.
Politics is not just about numbers, profit, or gas. It is primarily about values. When you choose the side of the aggressor, you betray not just Ukraine—you betray the memory of your own people, who know what Soviet tanks on the streets of Budapest feel like.
Viktor, stop and remember who you were. History is a harsh judge. It does not forgive those who were silent or helped evil during times of great trials. It is not too late to return to the light, to true European brotherhood, where honor is valued, not dubious political deals.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
I don't think they really need a hand though. It was many years ago that the UK Navy was overtaken by the US Coastguard in terms of tonnes of vessels at sea. What good are our few leaky tubs going to do? Clearly the US is more than capable of doing this alone, and indeed looks better doing so than asking for help.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
I don't think they really need a hand though. It was many years ago that the UK Navy was overtaken by the US Coastguard in terms of tonnes of vessels at sea. What good are our few leaky tubs going to do? Clearly the US is more than capable of doing this alone, and indeed looks better doing so than asking for help.
He wants the first naval vessel sunk by Iran to be flying somebody else's flag
I still think the most likely end to the war is that the US say that they've achieved their objectives to destroy the Iranian nuclear project, and degrade Iran's ability to attack its neighbours.
Why would Iran stop? They’ve demanded compensation and the withdrawal of the US from the Middle East
For a team that was supposedly over the hill and had it, Ireland seemed to be doing rather well. Do we think England made a mistake when Andy Farrell was pushed out of England setup.
For a team that was supposedly over the hill and had it, Ireland seemed to be doing rather well. Do we think England made a mistake when Andy Farrell was pushed out of England setup.
Utter madness
I believe his contract ends with Ireland after the next World Cup?
For a team that was supposedly over the hill and had it, Ireland seemed to be doing rather well. Do we think England made a mistake when Andy Farrell was pushed out of England setup.
Utter madness
I believe his contract ends with Ireland after the next World Cup?
Surely England must try to recruit him
I might well that bridges have been burned like Shaun Edwards won't touch the RFU will a bargepole.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
Our repsonse should not change. YOu made the mess so you clear it up. No help from us. I would hope France would be the same.
Yes, very much a “you broke it you own it” situation.
For a team that was supposedly over the hill and had it, Ireland seemed to be doing rather well. Do we think England made a mistake when Andy Farrell was pushed out of England setup.
Utter madness
I believe his contract ends with Ireland after the next World Cup?
Surely England must try to recruit him
I might well that bridges have been burned like Shaun Edwards won't touch the RFU will a bargepole.
If not Farrell then maybe the Saffer coach, if he fancies a new challenge
For a team that was supposedly over the hill and had it, Ireland seemed to be doing rather well. Do we think England made a mistake when Andy Farrell was pushed out of England setup.
Utter madness
I believe his contract ends with Ireland after the next World Cup?
Surely England must try to recruit him
I might well that bridges have been burned like Shaun Edwards won't touch the RFU will a bargepole.
If not Farrell then maybe the Saffer coach, if he fancies a new challenge
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
Ooh lovely. You far from the sail or the giant wheel ?
We had a week in Jumeirah for my wife’s fiftieth and it was just superb.
Highlight was a night in the desert sleeping under the stars. My back was an ‘all you can eat buffet’ for the mozzies but waking up and seeing the sky and the stars early in the morning. It was marvellous.
We’re on the outside of the palm island, close to Atlantis resort, great views of the city but it’s a little cloudy today.
We'll take your word for it is cloud. And not smoke.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
this post is brought to you by the Dubai tourist board.
He’s sitting in a rooftop bar among the beautiful people, first in line to be hit by the Iranians, with free glasses of wine turning up every few minutes…
He’s sitting in a rooftop bar among the beautiful people, first in line to be hit by the Iranians, with free glasses of wine turning up every few minutes…
He’s sitting in a rooftop bar among the beautiful people, first in line to be hit by the Iranians, with free glasses of wine turning up every few minutes…
Because why the fuck not?
I salute your testicular fortitude. You an example to us all
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
this post is brought to you by the Dubai tourist board.
If they’re paying me, I’m still waiting for the cheque.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
this post is brought to you by the Dubai tourist board.
Not working for me. Is there anything there (including the 'beautiful people') that isn't artificial?
A little bit irritating hearing the co-commentator from Scotland excusing the lack of yellow card there on the basis that on technicalities it would be yellow but it’s right that it isn’t because the spirit of the game. Can’t remember him defending the England player who got yellowed for pretty much the same challenge for a high ball v Scotland. Either have the rules or not but needs to be consistent.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
Our repsonse should not change. YOu made the mess so you clear it up. No help from us. I would hope France would be the same.
Iran has already indicated what needs to be done. Ship oil priced in Yuan. City of London should be able to do this easily,
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
this post is brought to you by the Dubai tourist board.
If they’re paying me, I’m still waiting for the cheque.
Not having a dig at you but I’ve been very surprised at old friends, acquaintances and contacts living in UAE and the near unhinged social posting about everything from how amazing the military is, many using the same phrase “possibly the best air defences in the world”, posts of the royals visiting malls and angry attacks on the British press saying that it’s all being stirred up by the media etc.
I get loyalty to the country you choose to live in, I was positive and supportive of Switzerland when I lived there, but this overdone posting by people I expected more of is very strange to see.
So greetings from the W Hotel, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai.
It’s usually around £400-£500 a night here, plus food and drinks, but today it’s £250 a night and all-inclusive. We have a 6pm checkout tomorrow, so a whole weekend on the piss at a five star resort. Rooftop bar appears to be full of ‘beautiful people’…
Can’t complain so far, maybe living in a war zone is fun after all?
this post is brought to you by the Dubai tourist board.
If they’re paying me, I’m still waiting for the cheque.
He’s sitting in a rooftop bar among the beautiful people, first in line to be hit by the Iranians, with free glasses of wine turning up every few minutes…
Yet again, an intentionally misleading headline by the Fake News Media about the five tanker planes that were supposedly struck down at an Airport in Saudi Arabia, and of no further use. In actuality, the Base was hit a few days ago, but the planes were not “struck” or “destroyed.” Four of the five had virtually no damage, and are already back in service. One had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly. None were destroyed, or close to that, as the Fake News said in headlines. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal (in particular), and other Lowlife “Papers” and Media actually want us to lose the War. Their terrible reporting is the exact opposite of the actual facts! They are truly sick and demented people that have no idea the damage they cause the United States of America. Fortunately, as proven by our Great and Conclusive Election Win in 2024, the People of our Country understand what is happening far better than the Fake News Media! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Yet again, an intentionally misleading headline by the Fake News Media about the five tanker planes that were supposedly struck down at an Airport in Saudi Arabia, and of no further use. In actuality, the Base was hit a few days ago, but the planes were not “struck” or “destroyed.” Four of the five had virtually no damage, and are already back in service. One had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly. None were destroyed, or close to that, as the Fake News said in headlines. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal (in particular), and other Lowlife “Papers” and Media actually want us to lose the War. Their terrible reporting is the exact opposite of the actual facts! They are truly sick and demented people that have no idea the damage they cause the United States of America. Fortunately, as proven by our Great and Conclusive Election Win in 2024, the People of our Country understand what is happening far better than the Fake News Media! President DONALD J. TRUMP
We have a new vacancy for an Information and Data Governance Officer, whose role will be to ensure that we have the most robust and operationally accessible information, aligning to our world-leading vision.
Minimum wage job, £26k.
#NU10k nepo baby job?
Well it's minimum wage plus a hefty pension but even the train fare into London is going to make it impossible even if you live at home.
It's the perfect example of the reality of a civil service job (seriously stupidly underpaid) compared to the claims Reform and others on here make.
Trump wants several countries including the UK to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz .
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Take a look at your last sentence.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
So? Trump is unpredictable.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
This is different.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
Our repsonse should not change. YOu made the mess so you clear it up. No help from us. I would hope France would be the same.
From the start I supposed that Mr Trump would expect the USA's former allies be all gung ho in support; and then he'd get bored, back out, and leave them to pick up the pieces.
Comments
I am sadly hoping that England get hammered today, because then there is -perhaps - a slight chance that the RFU will sack Borthwick. He has to go. He's never gonna win anything and, even worse, we lose playing boring rugby
Five star hotels were about £40 a night. The city is beautiful, historic and compelling. The bars were buzzing and the food was great
Sure my street got droned a few times, but that added to the excitement
Their entire economy runs on oil revenue. Their Jedi (@TSE) religious leadership *likes* the Resource Curse effect. It means they control the money. Lots of dictatorships and oligarchies like this pattern (Chavez used to boast of it)
If it is turned off, I’m not sure how long before food etc stops.
So, who is feeding him stuff and to what end?
Note that Putin demands control over all nuclear reactors in Ukraine and all spent fuel as part of his “peace plans”.
We had a week in Jumeirah for my wife’s fiftieth and it was just superb.
Highlight was a night in the desert sleeping under the stars. My back was an ‘all you can eat buffet’ for the mozzies but waking up and seeing the sky and the stars early in the morning. It was marvellous.
Now, 81 years later, nuclear technology is widely disseminated, and a first use of nuclear weapons might trigger a surprise attack on the United States. What would Trump do if after he has used nuclear weapons he finds a suitcase n-bomb has just taken out New York? Iran becomes the innocent victim, Trump faces a storm of protest at home and abroad, and the determination of everyone from Michigan, Montreal or Moscow to get rid of him as quickly as possible. Using nukes would be a strategic disaster for the US.
Of course the problem is that the current situation is also a strategic disaster for the US. Trump and his crew of cranks, drunks and fools could still decide to make the fatal decision. Moscow might actually fire back too, of course, Iran is their ally.
The US doesn't win with nukes, it loses differently and potentially a lot faster.
He's clearly someone with useful contacts and I wouldn't dismiss something like this out of hand.
So having started this disastrous war he’s now expecting others to help clear up the mess .
Perhaps a battering for England would be a good thing but I’d love one of these two to win the championship.
Everyone still here is a resident who’s not leaving, so can’t see much of an uptake when the siren goes off.
Dropping a nuke is such an epochal event it's like a kind of historic singularity, with an event horizon, it becomes impossible to predict what comes next as there are so many imponderables. Incidentally, there are pundits on X plausibly explaining why the war might see ISRAEL drop a nuke on Iran
Scary times
My point is that I can see a kind of logic where the half-crazy Trump opts to press the button. Didn't he once ask why America shouldn't stop hurricanes with nukes?
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5784112-trump-iran-deal-negotiations/
But if the US starts targeting the oil terminals they would be done in short order.
Turning off the Iranian oil would be an economic disaster for everyone, of course.
Oh no, we're all DOOOOOMED!!!!
But certainly not a Bad Al type character, who is a disgraceful individual. An arsonist turned fire consultant who says of course fires are terrible now and his involvement in such things were massively overblown.
Yes, of sorts
I should say that while I think nukes are horribly possible, they are still fairly unlikely. My prediction is that this probably ends with Trump doing something dramatic but not world-shaking, then declaring "victory" and speedily bringing everyone home. Crisis averted
But, what will Israel do?
I'm 100% for it.
Roger Ebert on ‘The Mummy’
“There is within me an unslaked hunger for preposterous adventure movies. I resist the
bad ones, but when a "Congo" or an "Anaconda" comes along, my heart leaps up and I cave in. "The Mummy" is a movie like that. There is hardly a thing I can say in its favor, except that I was cheered by nearly every minute of it. I cannot argue for the script, the direction, the acting or even the mummy, but I can say that I was not bored and sometimes I was unreasonably pleased. There is a little immaturity stuck away in the crannies of even the most judicious of us, and we should treasure it.”
What's last year's equivalent ?
I presume it is to protect the English clubs but it's not even doing that, particularly
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565?postid=11275482#liveblog-body
“We are not helping you poke the nest, there’s no great need of it and they’ll get out and we’ll all get stung.”
Has become
“Look they are swarming now, we are all getting stung. We all need to take action.”
Meloni and yourself are blinkered idiots.
"We are watching. If we don't like what we see - we'll be back. To destroy everything you have rebuilt - and more."
The Golden Hind is sat here round the corner, with a good tow and the canons primed could be there under tow in 2 months.
Don’t miss the OBVIOUS take out - Trump calling on his hated Macron, his hated China, and even more hated Starmer for help with this, is a screeching u-turn of sorts.
Hence his Chagos U-Turn, and every other one.
Does it tell us anything new? No.
https://x.com/charliesimpsona/status/2032802496947663345?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Dear Europe,
Please help me to unshit myself.
In return, I will harm your economy with tariffs, and insult your leaders, your cultures, and your military.
Kind regards,
A very stable genius
https://bsky.app/profile/russincheshire.bsky.social/post/3mgzphylmz22t
No.
From “we don’t need you. The US is the greatest military in the world, under the greatest presidency it’s ever had. We don’t need any carpet bagger joining late, it’s already in the bag.”
to
“Can we have a hand, please.”
is different.
https://x.com/uksupremecourt/status/2032476857317163022
We have a new vacancy for an Information and Data Governance Officer, whose role will be to ensure that we have the most robust and operationally accessible information, aligning to our world-leading vision.
Minimum wage job, £26k.
#NU10k nepo baby job?
It was also the submarine blockade of Japan, that meant that people were starving to death. And it was the fact that the bulk of Japan's army was stuck in China.
Don't forget too, that peace was only agreed -even after the nukes- when the US agreed that Hirohito could continue as Emperor. Without that concession, the war might have dragged on even longer.
Single most shocking I've seen today is the *before* picture of Orban.
The third president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, wrote an open letter to Orbán
"Viktor, look at this photo.
We stood side by side at a time when the future of our region seemed to be shared, clear, and bright. Back then, we both believed that freedom was not just a word, but the highest gift worth fighting for. I remember you differently. I remember a leader who understood the price of dignity and knew what liberation from imperial oppression meant.
Today, I look at your actions and ask myself: where has that Viktor gone? How did it happen that a person who saw the rise of free Hungary is now playing into the hands of forces that want to destroy the freedom of a neighboring country?
Ukraine is bleeding today for those same values we once debated at the negotiation table. We are defending not only our land but also the peace of your country, as well as all of Europe.
Politics is not just about numbers, profit, or gas. It is primarily about values. When you choose the side of the aggressor, you betray not just Ukraine—you betray the memory of your own people, who know what Soviet tanks on the streets of Budapest feel like.
Viktor, stop and remember who you were. History is a harsh judge. It does not forgive those who were silent or helped evil during times of great trials. It is not too late to return to the light, to true European brotherhood, where honor is valued, not dubious political deals.
I urge you to look truth in the eye. Be the leader the world once respected, the one who knew that freedom is the only way".
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2032641614901076209
I hope @Sandpit is safe!
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/global-art-banksy/
CliffNotes, its both the two people who have widely been identified in the past.
I believe his contract ends with Ireland after the next World Cup?
Surely England must try to recruit him
Offer him elventy million
Decline in South African drug-testing casts cloud over World Cup wins
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2026/03/02/revealed-south-african-rugby-drug-testing-in-decline/
Because why the fuck not?
And yes, why the fuck not
I get loyalty to the country you choose to live in, I was positive and supportive of Switzerland when I lived there, but this overdone posting by people I expected more of is very strange to see.
Ireland just too good for an excellent Scotland side
Huge if true.
Yet again, an intentionally misleading headline by the Fake News Media about the five tanker planes that were supposedly struck down at an Airport in Saudi Arabia, and of no further use. In actuality, the Base was hit a few days ago, but the planes were not “struck” or “destroyed.” Four of the five had virtually no damage, and are already back in service. One had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly. None were destroyed, or close to that, as the Fake News said in headlines. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal (in particular), and other Lowlife “Papers” and Media actually want us to lose the War. Their terrible reporting is the exact opposite of the actual facts! They are truly sick and demented people that have no idea the damage they cause the United States of America. Fortunately, as proven by our Great and Conclusive Election Win in 2024, the People of our Country understand what is happening far better than the Fake News Media! President DONALD J. TRUMP
To a tanker plane.
Just a little bit of leakage...
Hmmm.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/14/phil-woolas-labour-mp-dies-brain-cancer?CMP=share_btn_url
What is in dispute is the level of damage.
Still quite a win for Iranian missile men.
It's the perfect example of the reality of a civil service job (seriously stupidly underpaid) compared to the claims Reform and others on here make.
Edit typo