Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
The past couple of weeks have shown that Scotland has nothing to fear from the British Navy. 😄
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
The past couple of weeks have shown that Scotland has nothing to fear from the British Navy. 😄
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
The past couple of weeks have shown that Scotland has nothing to fear from the British Navy. 😄
What has that got to do with anything? The UK Supreme Court has affirmed that legally and constitutionally the future of the union is a matter for the Westminster Parliament not Holyrood, the latter is legally just a parliament for devolved Scottish domestic policy
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
The past couple of weeks have shown that Scotland has nothing to fear from the British Navy. 😄
The UAE has struck a desalination plant in Iran -Israeli Media
Would be the first confirmed UAE strike on Iran, and follows a pattern of escalating strikes against critical water infrastructure in the Gulf region
I thought you hawks were doing this to unshackle the Iranian people, not for them to die of thirst.
I think that annoucement is quite extraordinary in that a gulf state on it's own decision and with its military attacks Iranian infrastructure
This is an escalation directly as a result of Iran firing drones and missiles at and over friendly states
The GCC isn’t particularly friendly to Iran even before the last couple of weeks
I don't think the Iranians banked on GCC retaliation.
Well what the fuck did they expect in return for 1,500 drones and missiles aimed at the UAE, plus a thousand more aimed at a dozen more countries in the region?
Did they expect them all to say “muslims good and Jews bad, let’s all bomb Israel”?
"We have never seen Israel or America launching missiles at Gulf capitals. Iran is the one that did that.
Defending Iran because it raises the banner of Palestine while ignoring what it did to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf is a grave insult to the Arab countries that bore the cost for four decades."
The decision to go for desalination plants may not be a good strategy. Iran has aiui proportionally far more natural water supply than the Gulf States.
With its reservoirs at 10% that seems improbable.
Drinking water is mainly groundwater.
But in the aquifer stakes they are running them down at pace.
(Updated to remove derogatory reference to Kent.)
Apparently the Iranian issue with water is a growing population, existing sources running down (as you say) and a refusal to invest in capacity (reservoirs and water treatment plants)
This reminds me of something. Can’t quite put my finger on it.
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
It’s been a funny few months of economic data. PMI was well up, gilt yields were going down, stock market soaring, productivity growing finally after over a decade. But GDP very sluggish and unemployment up, and inflation stubborn.
I’m inclined to agree the forward looking stats were good even as the backward looking ones were stalling.
Yes there were some (modest) reasons to be (modestly) cheerful. Now maybe not so much. More evidence for what I firmly believe to be true - the UK's overall economic performance is largely dependent on external factors. Government policies aren't irrelevant but they tend to be outweighed by what happens elsewhere.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
What the government says its response is, what the public think its response is, what it actually is and, crucially, how its handling it are completely disconnected entities. The effects on ratings and VI might end up similarly disconnected
The public would likely support 200 billion investment in the NHS, and the government might say its their policy. If they then buy 200 billion Freddos to be given out free at Nurse stations and GP receptions..........
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
It's not impossible for a party to get a Starmeresque majority on less than 30% of the vote.
Thanks to FPTP! If Starmer were to bring in some reasonable form of PR then the situation would magically alter.
On a different topic, surely the whole issue in the ME hangs around religion. The Mullahs and indeed Iran are Shia Moslems. Much (not all) the rest of the Moslem Middle East is Sunni. They are about as likely to agree as Protestant Christians and Catholic ones were in Europe around 500 years ago. The Jews of Israel just add an extra dimension.
I think Trump's insane to get mixed up in it, except perhaps to defend/assist Israel, due to Western guilt, and Starmer's absolutely right to treat the whole matter with extreme caution.
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
It's not impossible for a party to get a Starmeresque majority on less than 30% of the vote.
Thanks to FPTP! If Starmer were to bring in some reasonable form of PR then the situation would magically alter.
On a different topic, surely the whole issue in the ME hangs around religion. The Mullahs and indeed Iran are Shia Moslems. Much (not all) the rest of the Moslem Middle East is Sunni. They are about as likely to agree as Protestant Christians and Catholic ones were in Europe around 500 years ago. The Jews of Israel just add an extra dimension.
I think Trump's insane to get mixed up in it, except perhaps to defend/assist Israel, due to Western guilt, and Starmer's absolutely right to treat the whole matter with extreme caution.
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
If the most unpopular pm of recent times and the leader of a party without an elected mp or msp in Scotland says it, it must be true.
Well realistically on current polls either the Labour UK leader or the leader of Reform will be UK PM (and Farage has made clear he will also refuse indyref2 for the next decade) and Westminster alone has the final say on the union as the UK SC affirmed
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
'Crap' since the 08 crash sadly. Under 7 PMs, 5 Con 2 Lab.
Yes of course they will (justifiably) TRY to blame Trump for the inflation caused by this war.
But - and this is my point - it probably won't wash. Fairly or unfairly governments are judged by what happens on their watch.
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters
The economy Labour inherited was beyond crap with various mines added by Hunt
Labour have started to turn it around.
Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory
Unpatriotic to the core Little England nationalists
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters
The economy Labour inherited was beyond crap with various mines added by Hunt
Labour have started to turn it around.
Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory
Unpatriotic to the core Little England nationalists
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
The RefCon LLG totals are very consistent with recent months though. 47 to 43. Perhaps Survation was more RefConny than the others before, I don’t know. But 47:43 is about par for the course.
Survation’s green number is notably lower than most.
Peter Hitchens @ClarkeMicah . @trussliz . I am glad to see your noted voice, as usual laden with inexperience, ignorance and poor instincts, in the Trump Chorus. It may persuade intelligent people to take the other view .
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
Given the SNP doesn't want to drill for anymore oil anymore than Ed Miliband does and are equally as net zero obsessed it doesn't
Would $200 oil lead to a massive swing to the Tories and Reform in Scotland in May?
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters
The economy Labour inherited was beyond crap with various mines added by Hunt
Labour have started to turn it around.
Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory
Unpatriotic to the core Little England nationalists
Turn it around how exactly?
The recent spring forecast, using data from before this conflict began showed:
The UAE has struck a desalination plant in Iran -Israeli Media
Would be the first confirmed UAE strike on Iran, and follows a pattern of escalating strikes against critical water infrastructure in the Gulf region
I thought you hawks were doing this to unshackle the Iranian people, not for them to die of thirst.
I think that annoucement is quite extraordinary in that a gulf state on it's own decision and with its military attacks Iranian infrastructure
This is an escalation directly as a result of Iran firing drones and missiles at and over friendly states
The GCC isn’t particularly friendly to Iran even before the last couple of weeks
I don't think the Iranians banked on GCC retaliation.
Well what the fuck did they expect in return for 1,500 drones and missiles aimed at the UAE, plus a thousand more aimed at a dozen more countries in the region?
Did they expect them all to say “muslims good and Jews bad, let’s all bomb Israel”?
"We have never seen Israel or America launching missiles at Gulf capitals. Iran is the one that did that.
Defending Iran because it raises the banner of Palestine while ignoring what it did to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf is a grave insult to the Arab countries that bore the cost for four decades."
The decision to go for desalination plants may not be a good strategy. Iran has aiui proportionally far more natural water supply than the Gulf States.
With its reservoirs at 10% that seems improbable.
Drinking water is mainly groundwater.
But in the aquifer stakes they are running them down at pace.
(Updated to remove derogatory reference to Kent.)
Apparently the Iranian issue with water is a growing population, existing sources running down (as you say) and a refusal to invest in capacity (reservoirs and water treatment plants)
This reminds me of something. Can’t quite put my finger on it.
California?
Closer to home
Tehran?
England
Existing sources running down has not generally been a long term problem.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
He has acted entirely true to form.
I have to admit trying to work out how to handle Trump's random thoughts of the day has to be hard work..
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls
Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.
The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters
The economy Labour inherited was beyond crap with various mines added by Hunt
Labour have started to turn it around.
Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory
Unpatriotic to the core Little England nationalists
Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.
Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit
But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.
The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures
But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.
It’s been a funny few months of economic data. PMI was well up, gilt yields were going down, stock market soaring, productivity growing finally after over a decade. But GDP very sluggish and unemployment up, and inflation stubborn.
I’m inclined to agree the forward looking stats were good even as the backward looking ones were stalling.
Yes there were some (modest) reasons to be (modestly) cheerful. Now maybe not so much. More evidence for what I firmly believe to be true - the UK's overall economic performance is largely dependent on external factors. Government policies aren't irrelevant but they tend to be outweighed by what happens elsewhere.
Same as the other key metric
Channel Boats
All dictated by the weather. Don't care what anyone says that is the key factor.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
He has acted entirely true to form.
I have to admit trying to work out how to handle Trump's random thoughts of the day has to be hard work..
I would have more sympathy if this incompetence were not true to form and shown on every other, domestic, issue too.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
The RefCon LLG totals are very consistent with recent months though. 47 to 43. Perhaps Survation was more RefConny than the others before, I don’t know. But 47:43 is about par for the course.
Survation’s green number is notably lower than most.
Its not notably lower. Of the BPC pollsters only YouGov and Find Out Now have ever had them over 15, everyone else is in the 11 to 15 range with JL Partners on a weird 9
47:43 yes, i agree. The chance of the current shares and proportion of that share holding once people are choosing a govt rather than expressing displeasure etc are slim.
Labour 48% the day the 2024 election was called..........
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
He has acted entirely true to form.
I have to admit trying to work out how to handle Trump's random thoughts of the day has to be hard work..
I would have more sympathy if this incompetence were not true to form and shown on every other, domestic, issue too.
True, the whole Digital Id card is the perfect example of talking about things without understanding the purpose, advantages and the downsides - and I say that as someone who thinks a digital ID solves a whole heap of problems.
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre Cost of living trumps Trump
What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.
It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.
My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.
If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.
With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.
If they save their seat.
At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.
By what mechanism? UDI?
You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.
'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'
If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.
Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely
I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.
That is not a good thing.
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
He has acted entirely true to form.
I have to admit trying to work out how to handle Trump's random thoughts of the day has to be hard work..
The usual approach is to put yourself in the mind of the other person, but that is not advisable in this case even if you could manage it.
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
I thought Trump approved of peopel violently taking over other places, he's shown extraordinary sympathy to Russia's military adventures as some kind of justifiable desire of theirs.
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
📺FAKE FOX NEWS: In shocking example of MAGA propaganda, @foxandfriends Weekend replaces footage of Trump's attendance at Dover AFB dignified transfer yesterday with video clip of Trump attending similar transfer on December 17, 2025 — all because he wore a baseball cap yesterday
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
I’m still completely lost as to what the end game of this Iran action is.
I suspect Bibi has a fairly rudimentary plan based on his assault on Gaza, but I doubt Trump and Hegseth have much idea of what they want so long as there is an angle for grift, oh and if a prolonged assault can bury the Epstein files that would be mission accomplished.
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
We had insight that's why in February we moved planes in to the region
We don't have dozens of ships and hundreds of planes any more.
When you cut defence spending by almost 25% for a decade that's inevitable.
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
The most credible take I have heard on the UK is that plans existed for all the scenarios around Iran, and had for 3 or 4 decades, but that political decision making was in a mess for 1-2 days because:
1 - Lack of experience - and hence indecision - of the people at the top of politics. 2 - Our lack of military resources meaning that all the decisions were far higher risk.
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
My plot twist sees the Assembly of Experts inadvertently select an Israeli asset as the next Ayatollah, who is unmasked when he *isn't* then assassinated
I assume the anti-British and anti-Starmer invective from Trump over the weekend is the fruit of Lord Haw-Haw-Farage, influencer-in-chief's, visit to the Wolf's Lair at Mar-a-Lago?
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
We had insight that's why in February we moved planes in to the region
We don't have dozens of ships and hundreds of planes any more.
When you cut defence spending by almost 25% for a decade that's inevitable.
Where was the SHORAD and anti drone defences? You do understand that you run layered defences againts missiles and drones and that fighter aircraft are just one layer, where was the rest?
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
My plot twist sees the Assembly of Experts inadvertently select an Israeli asset as the next Ayatollah, who is unmasked when he *isn't* then assassinated
Or Israel assassinates him to prevent his unmasking.
Got around to watching the GP. If that's racing then Trump is a very stable genius. Absolutely farcical overtakes. The only constant in F1 is that Ferrari have shit tactics.
Drivers having to lift and coast on straights to save fuel is frankly insulting to them and to the fans. I hope that the teams will be able to mitigate the need to do this over time but right now the FIA have made a mockery of the top tier racing series.
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
My plot twist sees the Assembly of Experts inadvertently select an Israeli asset as the next Ayatollah, who is unmasked when he *isn't* then assassinated
Or. The US assassinates him cos they don't give a toss.
I saw this going on yesterday, people were prompting Grok to say disgusting things about Liverpool fans and Diogo Jota. It raises philosophical questions about AI
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
A bit of internal deniability- "it's not me saying it, it's Grok"? Sort of like the way that people feel sort-of OK passing on something nasty?
A dismal lack of creativity?
A consequence of the modern way of people refusing to take responsibility for anything I think. The people prompting should be the ones punished, as dog owners are when their animal hurts someone. I suppose they would say they don't own grok! I guess Musk will defend it on free speech grounds, but you don't HAVE to allow the worst things in the world to be said
LINDSEY GRAHAM: Israel and the United States -- you just wait to see what comes the next two weeks
BARTIROMO: Meaning what?
GRAHAM: We're going to blow the hell out of these people
In lockstep with the anti Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps protesters. Anti Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps protesters who they are about to "blow the hell out of".
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
We had insight that's why in February we moved planes in to the region
We don't have dozens of ships and hundreds of planes any more.
When you cut defence spending by almost 25% for a decade that's inevitable.
Where was the SHORAD and anti drone defences? You do understand that you run layered defences againts missiles and drones and that fighter aircraft are just one layer, where was the rest?
Maybe the intel was that Iran had sold all its shaheeds to Russia?
I’m still completely lost as to what the end game of this Iran action is.
For the Israelis who are driving the offensive, pretty clearly they want to turn Iran into a failed state. They don't mind too much if the rest of the ME goes the same way so long as they stay hegemons and keep in with the Americans.
The Americans have no discernable game plan, I think partly because the senior courtiers around Trump have different agendas and Trump doesn't provide direction.
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
My plot twist sees the Assembly of Experts inadvertently select an Israeli asset as the next Ayatollah, who is unmasked when he *isn't* then assassinated
Or Israel assassinates him to prevent his unmasking.
While he’s visiting a girls’ school, just for verisimilitude.
Farage has been out in Mar-a-Lago and got his tweet from Trump, so Reform are chirping up.
This war is deeply unpopular in Britain, and staying out is 100% the right move.
Reform do nothing but denigrate and run down our great country for votes. Plastic patriotism.
Yeah. I’m moving from voting Reform to ‘fuck Reforn’ over this. It will crucify their red wall voters
For some time IMHO Reform have had more or less zero chance of forming or leading the next government but their wheels are disappearing faster than I would have expected.
We are faced with a spectacle on the Right of Centre flank, with a chance that despite commanding 45-50% of the vote at the moment, both its parties are utterly hated by the Left of Centre, + the two parties Reform and Tory hate each other intensely.
Tentative conclusion: The Left of Centre flank to win collectively 325+ seats in 2029.
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
My plot twist sees the Assembly of Experts inadvertently select an Israeli asset as the next Ayatollah, who is unmasked when he *isn't* then assassinated
Farage has been out in Mar-a-Lago and got his tweet from Trump, so Reform are chirping up.
This war is deeply unpopular in Britain, and staying out is 100% the right move.
Reform do nothing but denigrate and run down our great country for votes. Plastic patriotism.
Yeah. I’m moving from voting Reform to ‘fuck Reforn’ over this. It will crucify their red wall voters
For some time IMHO Reform have had more or less zero chance of forming or leading the next government but their wheels are disappearing faster than I would have expected.
We are faced with a spectacle on the Right of Centre flank, with a chance that despite commanding 45-50% of the vote at the moment, both its parties are utterly hated by the Left of Centre, + the two parties Reform and Tory hate each other intensely.
Tentative conclusion: The Left of Centre flank to win collectively 325+ seats in 2029.
Can't see Reform and Tories getting more than 45% of the vote.
Got around to watching the GP. If that's racing then Trump is a very stable genius. Absolutely farcical overtakes. The only constant in F1 is that Ferrari have shit tactics.
Drivers having to lift and coast on straights to save fuel is frankly insulting to them and to the fans. I hope that the teams will be able to mitigate the need to do this over time but right now the FIA have made a mockery of the top tier racing series.
Totally agree.
The thought of somebody lifting at tracks like Monza, Suzuka and Spa at top speed is terrifying.
Interesting SpectatorTV discussion with Lord Glassman - who seems extremely energised by the prospect of Iran reinstating the Shah. This is an unpopular stance with the Americans, who don't like a monarch, but I think it's probably what the UK should champion. Even if the US and Israel decide against the Shah, if what they install is unstable, it could be that the Shah later becomes 'l'inevitable'. Then Britain is very ahead of the game diplomatically.
Farage has been out in Mar-a-Lago and got his tweet from Trump, so Reform are chirping up.
This war is deeply unpopular in Britain, and staying out is 100% the right move.
Reform do nothing but denigrate and run down our great country for votes. Plastic patriotism.
Yeah. I’m moving from voting Reform to ‘fuck Reforn’ over this. It will crucify their red wall voters
For some time IMHO Reform have had more or less zero chance of forming or leading the next government but their wheels are disappearing faster than I would have expected.
We are faced with a spectacle on the Right of Centre flank, with a chance that despite commanding 45-50% of the vote at the moment, both its parties are utterly hated by the Left of Centre, + the two parties Reform and Tory hate each other intensely.
Tentative conclusion: The Left of Centre flank to win collectively 325+ seats in 2029.
Can't see Reform and Tories getting more than 45% of the vote.
Comments
If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.
Yet.
Could easily end up with a 1974 redux
https://x.com/matthewsyed/status/2030600239824924718?s=20
https://news.stv.tv/politics/keir-starmer-says-second-indyref-wont-happen-even-if-snp-are-re-elected
Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69q36gpg8o
'No talk of indyref2 for at least 10 years, says Reform Scotland leader'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/john-swinney-reform-uk-scottish-labour-party-snp-b2907678.html
It’s a convenient excuse for them
The effects on ratings and VI might end up similarly disconnected
The public would likely support 200 billion investment in the NHS, and the government might say its their policy. If they then buy 200 billion Freddos to be given out free at Nurse stations and GP receptions..........
If Starmer were to bring in some reasonable form of PR then the situation would magically alter.
On a different topic, surely the whole issue in the ME hangs around religion. The Mullahs and indeed Iran are Shia Moslems. Much (not all) the rest of the Moslem Middle East is Sunni. They are about as likely to agree as Protestant Christians and Catholic ones were in Europe around 500 years ago.
The Jews of Israel just add an extra dimension.
I think Trump's insane to get mixed up in it, except perhaps to defend/assist Israel, due to Western guilt, and Starmer's absolutely right to treat the whole matter with extreme caution.
I got you babe
Yes of course they will (justifiably) TRY to blame Trump for the inflation caused by this war.
But - and this is my point - it probably won't wash. Fairly or unfairly governments are judged by what happens on their watch.
Labour have started to turn it around.
Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory
Unpatriotic to the core
Little England nationalists
PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.
Starmers yeah, but no, but yeah, but no performance sums up his entire Premiership to date.
He has singularly failed to lead the country on anything and is must be sore from the splinters up his bum as the perpetual fence sitter extraordinaire.
He has acted entirely true to form.
Survation’s green number is notably lower than most.
Peter Hitchens
@ClarkeMicah
.
@trussliz
. I am glad to see your noted voice, as usual laden with inexperience, ignorance and poor instincts, in the Trump Chorus. It may persuade intelligent people to take the other view .
https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/2030606359775826073?s=20
The recent spring forecast, using data from before this conflict began showed:
Growth down
Unemployment up
Youth NEET up
If that is turned around, turn it back again!
The other two, yes, in the South East.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4HWm8DpwOs
"When I find myself in times of trouble,
Graham Brady comes to me.
Outlasted by a Lettuce
Lettuce Liz"
Channel Boats
All dictated by the weather. Don't care what anyone says that is the key factor.
47:43 yes, i agree. The chance of the current shares and proportion of that share holding once people are choosing a govt rather than expressing displeasure etc are slim.
Labour 48% the day the 2024 election was called..........
https://x.com/clashreport/status/2030653062142935295
Trump to ABC News:
Iran was planning “to attack the entire Middle East. To take over the entire Middle East.”
The next Iranian leader “is not going to last long” if they don’t get my approval.
Things to note, things to watch for:
Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.
The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.
If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.
I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.
One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces
@foxandfriends
Weekend replaces footage of Trump's attendance at Dover AFB dignified transfer yesterday with video clip of Trump attending similar transfer on December 17, 2025 — all because he wore a baseball cap yesterday
https://x.com/BadFoxGraphics/status/2030621454627123568?s=20
BREAKING: Social media platform X investigating racist and offensive Grok posts, Sky understands.
Users are prompting Grok to produce vulgar responses, particularly targeting Hinduism, Islam, and also groups of football fans.
@RobHarris
has the story
https://trib.al/Rx0iR33
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2030638084929290609?s=20
We don't have dozens of ships and hundreds of planes any more.
When you cut defence spending by almost 25% for a decade that's inevitable.
1 - Lack of experience - and hence indecision - of the people at the top of politics.
2 - Our lack of military resources meaning that all the decisions were far higher risk.
A bit of internal deniability- "it's not me saying it, it's Grok"? Sort of like the way that people feel sort-of OK passing on something nasty?
A dismal lack of creativity?
Drivers having to lift and coast on straights to save fuel is frankly insulting to them and to the fans. I hope that the teams will be able to mitigate the need to do this over time but right now the FIA have made a mockery of the top tier racing series.
LINDSEY GRAHAM: Israel and the United States -- you just wait to see what comes the next two weeks
BARTIROMO: Meaning what?
GRAHAM: We're going to blow the hell out of these people
Er....
NEW THREAD
LOL
The Americans have no discernable game plan, I think partly because the senior courtiers around Trump have different agendas and Trump doesn't provide direction.
In depth look at the intentions and the risks facing the main protagonists, except USA: https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-east-north-africa/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/sprawling-middle-east-war-explodes
We are faced with a spectacle on the Right of Centre flank, with a chance that despite commanding 45-50% of the vote at the moment, both its parties are utterly hated by the Left of Centre, + the two parties Reform and Tory hate each other intensely.
Tentative conclusion: The Left of Centre flank to win collectively 325+ seats in 2029.
Other than DUP no one would support them
Centre left 55% and mire likely to collaborate.
The thought of somebody lifting at tracks like Monza, Suzuka and Spa at top speed is terrifying.