Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
The commentary from Washington today has been astonishingly stupid.
I think we will be looking at a large Democrat majority in the House, and it is even possible that the American people might vote for enough Democrat Senators to allow impeachment. What odds are being offered on Trump being forced from office?
It is certainly what this fiasco deserves.
There is essentially no chance that enough Senate seats could fall that would allow for Trump's impeachment.
Right now, the Senate is 53-47.
Only 33 seats are up for election this year, of which 13 are Democrat, and 20 Republican.
If you assume that States with a partisan lean of 6 points (i.e. a 12 point gap in the vote last time around) were to the fall to the Democrats (which would be an incredible result for them), then you would see them gain the following:
Alaska: not a bad shout, Mary Pelouta is popular and only just missed out in the House race in 2024, and the Republicans are likely to do worse than then. Florida: that's a real toughy; it's been becoming Redder and Redder over time. But I put in there for completeness. Iowa: it's possible. Obama won it. And it'll be open because Joni Ernst is retiring. But I'd want decent odds. Maine: Ms Collins luck will run out this year. North Carolina: probably a Democrat gain. Ohio: like with Iowa, it's possible. Sherrod Brown is a very strong Democratic candidate who lost by just 3.5% in 2024, while Trump ran away with the State. Texas: well, the Democrats did the smart thing and chose an electable candidate. And the Republicans look likely to pick Paxton. Nate Silver thinks this makes Texas 50/50.
And that's it... After that, you start looking at States with big Republican leans. And while it's possible one ofthem could end up falling in one way or another (perhaps Louisiana, if the Republicans Primary Bill Cassidy, and then the Dems decide to sit the race out and he wins as an Independent?), it's not likely.
So... on an incredible night for the Dems, you could see them picking up 7.
But, really, only 2 are high likelihood (Maine and North Carolina), then there are 2 or 3 that are 50/50 at best (Alaska, maybe Ohio and Texas). And then it's really distant shots.
+7 gets the Dems to 54 Senators. And yes, you might get Lisa Murkowski voting for Trump's removal, but that's probably about it.
But...you are assuming those Republican Seantors who weren't up for election but have seen the Democrats surge in the House and get the majority in the Senate are going to sit back and let Trump run through to his end of term without trying to do something to save their arses in 2028.
It's worth pointing out that Trump's average favourability in polling is 43%, which is still better than Biden and a smidge better than Trump 1. The assumption on here is that everyone in the US hates Trump now but it's really not the case. I would suggest the polling points to an average mid-terms (e.g. Dems take back the House but not the Senate)
Mark, Realclearpolitics is currently giving an average of 43.4%/54.6% with a huge spread of results, so you can cherry pick your pollsters and draw just about any conclusion you like. The trouble is of course that there is no equivalent of the BPC in the US so even joke pollsters like Trafalgar get thrown into the mix. Even amongst the more familiar names it is hard to know who you can really rely on. I think Quinnipiac are pretty kosher but I'd struggle to name a second I would place great reliance on.
I think all you can say for sure is that the trend has been unfavorable for Trump for some time and that the favorability gap is big, but not necessarily big enough to suggest a wipe out in November.
There's a lot of room for guesswork, and if I had to guess it would be along the same lines as Gareth - a good night for Democrats, but not dissimilar to normal midterm results.
That's pretty much where I'm sitting.
Assuming that the Iran war ends before it sends petrol prices spiralling out of control, you'd expect the Democrats to regain the House, and to pickup North Carolina and Maine. You'd also reckon they have a decent chance in Alaska. With outside possibilities being Ohio and (if the Republicans pick Paxton) Texas. The most likely outcome is probably Dems +2 in the Senate, but it's not impossible they could either fall short in North Carolina, or for Ms Collins to escape political gravity once more, or even for them to drop one or both of Michigan and Georgia.
That said, if it does go on, and energy prices spike, then it could be an ugly night for the Republicans.
But, will HMS Dragon get to Cyprus before the Democrats regain the House?
What a complete embarrassment and humiliation to have the French (yes the FRENCH) navy protecting British interests on Cyprus because we are incapable of doing so ourselves.
The depths to which this country has sunk under Labour and Conservative governments tells you everything you need to know about their current pitiful polling levels...
You’ve missed the worst bit - the name of the carrier!
The Charles de Gaulle is based at Toulon and never wanders too far from the Mediterranean so getting it to Cyprus wouldn't be too difficult.
I certainly don't feel "embarrassed" or "humiliated" about any of this - that's why you have allies who can help out. Is anyone suggesting we now permanently station an aircraft carrier in Cyprus? I bet the dock facilities don't exist.
Why would you fly planes from an aircraft carrier stationed off Cyprus when you can just fly the planes from Cyprus?
The commentary from Washington today has been astonishingly stupid.
I think we will be looking at a large Democrat majority in the House, and it is even possible that the American people might vote for enough Democrat Senators to allow impeachment. What odds are being offered on Trump being forced from office?
It is certainly what this fiasco deserves.
There is essentially no chance that enough Senate seats could fall that would allow for Trump's impeachment.
Right now, the Senate is 53-47.
Only 33 seats are up for election this year, of which 13 are Democrat, and 20 Republican.
If you assume that States with a partisan lean of 6 points (i.e. a 12 point gap in the vote last time around) were to the fall to the Democrats (which would be an incredible result for them), then you would see them gain the following:
Alaska: not a bad shout, Mary Pelouta is popular and only just missed out in the House race in 2024, and the Republicans are likely to do worse than then. Florida: that's a real toughy; it's been becoming Redder and Redder over time. But I put in there for completeness. Iowa: it's possible. Obama won it. And it'll be open because Joni Ernst is retiring. But I'd want decent odds. Maine: Ms Collins luck will run out this year. North Carolina: probably a Democrat gain. Ohio: like with Iowa, it's possible. Sherrod Brown is a very strong Democratic candidate who lost by just 3.5% in 2024, while Trump ran away with the State. Texas: well, the Democrats did the smart thing and chose an electable candidate. And the Republicans look likely to pick Paxton. Nate Silver thinks this makes Texas 50/50.
And that's it... After that, you start looking at States with big Republican leans. And while it's possible one ofthem could end up falling in one way or another (perhaps Louisiana, if the Republicans Primary Bill Cassidy, and then the Dems decide to sit the race out and he wins as an Independent?), it's not likely.
So... on an incredible night for the Dems, you could see them picking up 7.
But, really, only 2 are high likelihood (Maine and North Carolina), then there are 2 or 3 that are 50/50 at best (Alaska, maybe Ohio and Texas). And then it's really distant shots.
+7 gets the Dems to 54 Senators. And yes, you might get Lisa Murkowski voting for Trump's removal, but that's probably about it.
But...you are assuming those Republican Seantors who weren't up for election but have seen the Democrats surge in the House and get the majority in the Senate are going to sit back and let Trump run through to his end of term without trying to do something to save their arses in 2028.
It's worth pointing out that Trump's average favourability in polling is 43%, which is still better than Biden and a smidge better than Trump 1. The assumption on here is that everyone in the US hates Trump now but it's really not the case. I would suggest the polling points to an average mid-terms (e.g. Dems take back the House but not the Senate)
Mark, Realclearpolitics is currently giving an average of 43.4%/54.6% with a huge spread of results, so you can cherry pick your pollsters and draw just about any conclusion you like. The trouble is of course that there is no equivalent of the BPC in the US so even joke pollsters like Trafalgar get thrown into the mix. Even amongst the more familiar names it is hard to know who you can really rely on. I think Quinnipiac are pretty kosher but I'd struggle to name a second I would place great reliance on.
I think all you can say for sure is that the trend has been unfavorable for Trump for some time and that the favorability gap is big, but not necessarily big enough to suggest a wipe out in November.
There's a lot of room for guesswork, and if I had to guess it would be along the same lines as Gareth - a good night for Democrats, but not dissimilar to normal midterm results.
That's pretty much where I'm sitting.
Assuming that the Iran war ends before it sends petrol prices spiralling out of control, you'd expect the Democrats to regain the House, and to pickup North Carolina and Maine. You'd also reckon they have a decent chance in Alaska. With outside possibilities being Ohio and (if the Republicans pick Paxton) Texas. The most likely outcome is probably Dems +2 in the Senate, but it's not impossible they could either fall short in North Carolina, or for Ms Collins to escape political gravity once more, or even for them to drop one or both of Michigan and Georgia.
That said, if it does go on, and energy prices spike, then it could be an ugly night for the Republicans.
But, will HMS Dragon get to Cyprus before the Democrats regain the House?
What a complete embarrassment and humiliation to have the French (yes the FRENCH) navy protecting British interests on Cyprus because we are incapable of doing so ourselves.
The depths to which this country has sunk under Labour and Conservative governments tells you everything you need to know about their current pitiful polling levels...
That's what allies are for.
Jesus Christ
Grow up.
There are enough UK aircraft there and have been for weeks to protect Cyprus 5 times over.
I mean that's demonstrably not true, otherwise there wouldn't have been that drone strike.
That one drone strike that did very little damage?
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
They will be doing so without insurance. That’s what the US government has to fix
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
I think the issue is that civilian boat captains (and the companies that own the boats) are risk averse. Their desire to put themselves in harms way is limited.
What you probably need is for the first few tankers to get through with heavy escort, so that the risk from Iranian drones, etc., can be properly calibrated. If they are unable to mount a serious threat, then people will begin to relax, and tankers (and oil) will start to flow.
Risk is what insurance is for.
And the oil in those ships is now worth a lot more.
And if there is a high probability of being sunk the cost of insurance approaches the cost of replacing a ship
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
I think the issue is that civilian boat captains (and the companies that own the boats) are risk averse. Their desire to put themselves in harms way is limited.
What you probably need is for the first few tankers to get through with heavy escort, so that the risk from Iranian drones, etc., can be properly calibrated. If they are unable to mount a serious threat, then people will begin to relax, and tankers (and oil) will start to flow.
Risk is what insurance is for.
And the oil in those ships is now worth a lot more.
And if there is a high probability of being sunk the cost of insurance approaches the cost of replacing a ship
I follow a shipping channel as PB knows.
In the 80s tanker war, the insurance premiums peaked at 5-10% of the value of the ship plus the cargo. That is per trip.
At this time we have gone up from about 0.2% of the value, to about 1.5%-2.5%.
The highest rates are for UK and USA and (I am assuming) Israeli owned or flagged ships, since we are Satan.
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
I think the issue is that civilian boat captains (and the companies that own the boats) are risk averse. Their desire to put themselves in harms way is limited.
What you probably need is for the first few tankers to get through with heavy escort, so that the risk from Iranian drones, etc., can be properly calibrated. If they are unable to mount a serious threat, then people will begin to relax, and tankers (and oil) will start to flow.
Risk is what insurance is for.
And the oil in those ships is now worth a lot more.
And if there is a high probability of being sunk the cost of insurance approaches the cost of replacing a ship
I follow a shipping channel as PB knows.
In the 80s tanker war, the insurance premiums peaked at 5-10% of the value of the ship plus the cargo. That is per trip.
At this time we have gone up from about 0.2% of the value, to about 1.5%-2.5%.
The highest rates are for UK and USA and (I am assuming) Israeli owned or flagged ships, since we are Satan.
I'm making nice money from my flints, young and old, and I want to spend some
I've run out of room in my tiny flat to put antiques, or Georgian glasses, or antique Spode, or Russian silver spoons, etc
So I might be a really beautiful fossil. I have a Murano chalice which would really cradle a fossil exquisitely. Where the fuck does one buy great fossils? Willing to spend a couple of grand or more
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
The commentary from Washington today has been astonishingly stupid.
I think we will be looking at a large Democrat majority in the House, and it is even possible that the American people might vote for enough Democrat Senators to allow impeachment. What odds are being offered on Trump being forced from office?
It is certainly what this fiasco deserves.
There is essentially no chance that enough Senate seats could fall that would allow for Trump's impeachment.
Right now, the Senate is 53-47.
Only 33 seats are up for election this year, of which 13 are Democrat, and 20 Republican.
If you assume that States with a partisan lean of 6 points (i.e. a 12 point gap in the vote last time around) were to the fall to the Democrats (which would be an incredible result for them), then you would see them gain the following:
Alaska: not a bad shout, Mary Pelouta is popular and only just missed out in the House race in 2024, and the Republicans are likely to do worse than then. Florida: that's a real toughy; it's been becoming Redder and Redder over time. But I put in there for completeness. Iowa: it's possible. Obama won it. And it'll be open because Joni Ernst is retiring. But I'd want decent odds. Maine: Ms Collins luck will run out this year. North Carolina: probably a Democrat gain. Ohio: like with Iowa, it's possible. Sherrod Brown is a very strong Democratic candidate who lost by just 3.5% in 2024, while Trump ran away with the State. Texas: well, the Democrats did the smart thing and chose an electable candidate. And the Republicans look likely to pick Paxton. Nate Silver thinks this makes Texas 50/50.
And that's it... After that, you start looking at States with big Republican leans. And while it's possible one ofthem could end up falling in one way or another (perhaps Louisiana, if the Republicans Primary Bill Cassidy, and then the Dems decide to sit the race out and he wins as an Independent?), it's not likely.
So... on an incredible night for the Dems, you could see them picking up 7.
But, really, only 2 are high likelihood (Maine and North Carolina), then there are 2 or 3 that are 50/50 at best (Alaska, maybe Ohio and Texas). And then it's really distant shots.
+7 gets the Dems to 54 Senators. And yes, you might get Lisa Murkowski voting for Trump's removal, but that's probably about it.
But...you are assuming those Republican Seantors who weren't up for election but have seen the Democrats surge in the House and get the majority in the Senate are going to sit back and let Trump run through to his end of term without trying to do something to save their arses in 2028.
It's worth pointing out that Trump's average favourability in polling is 43%, which is still better than Biden and a smidge better than Trump 1. The assumption on here is that everyone in the US hates Trump now but it's really not the case. I would suggest the polling points to an average mid-terms (e.g. Dems take back the House but not the Senate)
Mark, Realclearpolitics is currently giving an average of 43.4%/54.6% with a huge spread of results, so you can cherry pick your pollsters and draw just about any conclusion you like. The trouble is of course that there is no equivalent of the BPC in the US so even joke pollsters like Trafalgar get thrown into the mix. Even amongst the more familiar names it is hard to know who you can really rely on. I think Quinnipiac are pretty kosher but I'd struggle to name a second I would place great reliance on.
I think all you can say for sure is that the trend has been unfavorable for Trump for some time and that the favorability gap is big, but not necessarily big enough to suggest a wipe out in November.
There's a lot of room for guesswork, and if I had to guess it would be along the same lines as Gareth - a good night for Democrats, but not dissimilar to normal midterm results.
That's pretty much where I'm sitting.
Assuming that the Iran war ends before it sends petrol prices spiralling out of control, you'd expect the Democrats to regain the House, and to pickup North Carolina and Maine. You'd also reckon they have a decent chance in Alaska. With outside possibilities being Ohio and (if the Republicans pick Paxton) Texas. The most likely outcome is probably Dems +2 in the Senate, but it's not impossible they could either fall short in North Carolina, or for Ms Collins to escape political gravity once more, or even for them to drop one or both of Michigan and Georgia.
That said, if it does go on, and energy prices spike, then it could be an ugly night for the Republicans.
But, will HMS Dragon get to Cyprus before the Democrats regain the House?
What a complete embarrassment and humiliation to have the French (yes the FRENCH) navy protecting British interests on Cyprus because we are incapable of doing so ourselves.
The depths to which this country has sunk under Labour and Conservative governments tells you everything you need to know about their current pitiful polling levels...
That's what allies are for.
Jesus Christ
Grow up.
There are enough UK aircraft there and have been for weeks to protect Cyprus 5 times over.
I mean that's demonstrably not true, otherwise there wouldn't have been that drone strike.
Worth considering that no defence system is foolproof. The UAE have invested in one of the most advanced air defence systems in the world. They were attacked over 1000 missiles and drones and shot down 94% of them. That still means 60 got through. Same with Israel and the Iron Dome. No system currently in existence can stop every attack.
A lot of people in the Gulf are going to be looking at their layered air defence. Lasers as standard on the top of big buildings within a couple of years? Although oil and gas facilities need to be protected. And then the Straits...
The commentary from Washington today has been astonishingly stupid.
I think we will be looking at a large Democrat majority in the House, and it is even possible that the American people might vote for enough Democrat Senators to allow impeachment. What odds are being offered on Trump being forced from office?
It is certainly what this fiasco deserves.
There is essentially no chance that enough Senate seats could fall that would allow for Trump's impeachment.
Right now, the Senate is 53-47.
Only 33 seats are up for election this year, of which 13 are Democrat, and 20 Republican.
If you assume that States with a partisan lean of 6 points (i.e. a 12 point gap in the vote last time around) were to the fall to the Democrats (which would be an incredible result for them), then you would see them gain the following:
Alaska: not a bad shout, Mary Pelouta is popular and only just missed out in the House race in 2024, and the Republicans are likely to do worse than then. Florida: that's a real toughy; it's been becoming Redder and Redder over time. But I put in there for completeness. Iowa: it's possible. Obama won it. And it'll be open because Joni Ernst is retiring. But I'd want decent odds. Maine: Ms Collins luck will run out this year. North Carolina: probably a Democrat gain. Ohio: like with Iowa, it's possible. Sherrod Brown is a very strong Democratic candidate who lost by just 3.5% in 2024, while Trump ran away with the State. Texas: well, the Democrats did the smart thing and chose an electable candidate. And the Republicans look likely to pick Paxton. Nate Silver thinks this makes Texas 50/50.
And that's it... After that, you start looking at States with big Republican leans. And while it's possible one ofthem could end up falling in one way or another (perhaps Louisiana, if the Republicans Primary Bill Cassidy, and then the Dems decide to sit the race out and he wins as an Independent?), it's not likely.
So... on an incredible night for the Dems, you could see them picking up 7.
But, really, only 2 are high likelihood (Maine and North Carolina), then there are 2 or 3 that are 50/50 at best (Alaska, maybe Ohio and Texas). And then it's really distant shots.
+7 gets the Dems to 54 Senators. And yes, you might get Lisa Murkowski voting for Trump's removal, but that's probably about it.
But...you are assuming those Republican Seantors who weren't up for election but have seen the Democrats surge in the House and get the majority in the Senate are going to sit back and let Trump run through to his end of term without trying to do something to save their arses in 2028.
It's worth pointing out that Trump's average favourability in polling is 43%, which is still better than Biden and a smidge better than Trump 1. The assumption on here is that everyone in the US hates Trump now but it's really not the case. I would suggest the polling points to an average mid-terms (e.g. Dems take back the House but not the Senate)
Mark, Realclearpolitics is currently giving an average of 43.4%/54.6% with a huge spread of results, so you can cherry pick your pollsters and draw just about any conclusion you like. The trouble is of course that there is no equivalent of the BPC in the US so even joke pollsters like Trafalgar get thrown into the mix. Even amongst the more familiar names it is hard to know who you can really rely on. I think Quinnipiac are pretty kosher but I'd struggle to name a second I would place great reliance on.
I think all you can say for sure is that the trend has been unfavorable for Trump for some time and that the favorability gap is big, but not necessarily big enough to suggest a wipe out in November.
There's a lot of room for guesswork, and if I had to guess it would be along the same lines as Gareth - a good night for Democrats, but not dissimilar to normal midterm results.
That's pretty much where I'm sitting.
Assuming that the Iran war ends before it sends petrol prices spiralling out of control, you'd expect the Democrats to regain the House, and to pickup North Carolina and Maine. You'd also reckon they have a decent chance in Alaska. With outside possibilities being Ohio and (if the Republicans pick Paxton) Texas. The most likely outcome is probably Dems +2 in the Senate, but it's not impossible they could either fall short in North Carolina, or for Ms Collins to escape political gravity once more, or even for them to drop one or both of Michigan and Georgia.
That said, if it does go on, and energy prices spike, then it could be an ugly night for the Republicans.
But, will HMS Dragon get to Cyprus before the Democrats regain the House?
What a complete embarrassment and humiliation to have the French (yes the FRENCH) navy protecting British interests on Cyprus because we are incapable of doing so ourselves.
The depths to which this country has sunk under Labour and Conservative governments tells you everything you need to know about their current pitiful polling levels...
That's what allies are for.
Jesus Christ
Grow up.
There are enough UK aircraft there and have been for weeks to protect Cyprus 5 times over.
I mean that's demonstrably not true, otherwise there wouldn't have been that drone strike.
Worth considering that no defence system is foolproof. The UAE have invested in one of the most advanced air defence systems in the world. They were attacked over 1000 missiles and drones and shot down 94% of them. That still means 60 got through. Same with Israel and the Iron Dome. No system currently in existence can stop every attack.
A lot of people in the Gulf are going to be looking at their layered air defence. Lasers as standard on the top of big buildings within a couple of years? Although oil and gas facilities need to be protected. And then the Straits...
Imagine the service charge on an apartment building with its own anti-drone defence.
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
I think the issue is that civilian boat captains (and the companies that own the boats) are risk averse. Their desire to put themselves in harms way is limited.
What you probably need is for the first few tankers to get through with heavy escort, so that the risk from Iranian drones, etc., can be properly calibrated. If they are unable to mount a serious threat, then people will begin to relax, and tankers (and oil) will start to flow.
Risk is what insurance is for.
And the oil in those ships is now worth a lot more.
And if there is a high probability of being sunk the cost of insurance approaches the cost of replacing a ship
Don't forget that shipowners want insurance that would also recompense them for the fact that they won't have use of their vessel for years: so insurance is not just about the price of the hull. Which means it would be insanely expensive.
OT. I saw the film 'The Bride' and though it made little sense as a story for all the other things that make up a film -photography acting styling lighting sets script I loved it. Most of all for all things Jessie Buckly. She was brilliant. Christian Bale wasn't bad either.
Similarly this guy https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social thinks it takes just one drone attack on a tanker as it passes by Iranian territory to bring the trade to a halt, and there is no way America can stop that single drone attack.
Which implies Hormuz will only be open again if the Iranians want it to be. And that implies in turn a deal between America and whoever is in charge in Iran.
And what happens if everyone just ignores that one drone and sails through ?
Given that Iran has so far been able to sink precisely zero ships it might suggest that Iran's actual military capacity is, once again, being over estimated.
I think the issue is that civilian boat captains (and the companies that own the boats) are risk averse. Their desire to put themselves in harms way is limited.
What you probably need is for the first few tankers to get through with heavy escort, so that the risk from Iranian drones, etc., can be properly calibrated. If they are unable to mount a serious threat, then people will begin to relax, and tankers (and oil) will start to flow.
Risk is what insurance is for.
And the oil in those ships is now worth a lot more.
And if there is a high probability of being sunk the cost of insurance approaches the cost of replacing a ship
If a ship full of oil is sunk in a war zone and the owner chose to put it there you can also see them being liable for the clean up costs for the coasts that get polluted.
The commentary from Washington today has been astonishingly stupid.
I think we will be looking at a large Democrat majority in the House, and it is even possible that the American people might vote for enough Democrat Senators to allow impeachment. What odds are being offered on Trump being forced from office?
It is certainly what this fiasco deserves.
There is essentially no chance that enough Senate seats could fall that would allow for Trump's impeachment.
Right now, the Senate is 53-47.
Only 33 seats are up for election this year, of which 13 are Democrat, and 20 Republican.
If you assume that States with a partisan lean of 6 points (i.e. a 12 point gap in the vote last time around) were to the fall to the Democrats (which would be an incredible result for them), then you would see them gain the following:
Alaska: not a bad shout, Mary Pelouta is popular and only just missed out in the House race in 2024, and the Republicans are likely to do worse than then. Florida: that's a real toughy; it's been becoming Redder and Redder over time. But I put in there for completeness. Iowa: it's possible. Obama won it. And it'll be open because Joni Ernst is retiring. But I'd want decent odds. Maine: Ms Collins luck will run out this year. North Carolina: probably a Democrat gain. Ohio: like with Iowa, it's possible. Sherrod Brown is a very strong Democratic candidate who lost by just 3.5% in 2024, while Trump ran away with the State. Texas: well, the Democrats did the smart thing and chose an electable candidate. And the Republicans look likely to pick Paxton. Nate Silver thinks this makes Texas 50/50.
And that's it... After that, you start looking at States with big Republican leans. And while it's possible one ofthem could end up falling in one way or another (perhaps Louisiana, if the Republicans Primary Bill Cassidy, and then the Dems decide to sit the race out and he wins as an Independent?), it's not likely.
So... on an incredible night for the Dems, you could see them picking up 7.
But, really, only 2 are high likelihood (Maine and North Carolina), then there are 2 or 3 that are 50/50 at best (Alaska, maybe Ohio and Texas). And then it's really distant shots.
+7 gets the Dems to 54 Senators. And yes, you might get Lisa Murkowski voting for Trump's removal, but that's probably about it.
But...you are assuming those Republican Seantors who weren't up for election but have seen the Democrats surge in the House and get the majority in the Senate are going to sit back and let Trump run through to his end of term without trying to do something to save their arses in 2028.
It's worth pointing out that Trump's average favourability in polling is 43%, which is still better than Biden and a smidge better than Trump 1. The assumption on here is that everyone in the US hates Trump now but it's really not the case. I would suggest the polling points to an average mid-terms (e.g. Dems take back the House but not the Senate)
Mark, Realclearpolitics is currently giving an average of 43.4%/54.6% with a huge spread of results, so you can cherry pick your pollsters and draw just about any conclusion you like. The trouble is of course that there is no equivalent of the BPC in the US so even joke pollsters like Trafalgar get thrown into the mix. Even amongst the more familiar names it is hard to know who you can really rely on. I think Quinnipiac are pretty kosher but I'd struggle to name a second I would place great reliance on.
I think all you can say for sure is that the trend has been unfavorable for Trump for some time and that the favorability gap is big, but not necessarily big enough to suggest a wipe out in November.
There's a lot of room for guesswork, and if I had to guess it would be along the same lines as Gareth - a good night for Democrats, but not dissimilar to normal midterm results.
That's pretty much where I'm sitting.
Assuming that the Iran war ends before it sends petrol prices spiralling out of control, you'd expect the Democrats to regain the House, and to pickup North Carolina and Maine. You'd also reckon they have a decent chance in Alaska. With outside possibilities being Ohio and (if the Republicans pick Paxton) Texas. The most likely outcome is probably Dems +2 in the Senate, but it's not impossible they could either fall short in North Carolina, or for Ms Collins to escape political gravity once more, or even for them to drop one or both of Michigan and Georgia.
That said, if it does go on, and energy prices spike, then it could be an ugly night for the Republicans.
But, will HMS Dragon get to Cyprus before the Democrats regain the House?
What a complete embarrassment and humiliation to have the French (yes the FRENCH) navy protecting British interests on Cyprus because we are incapable of doing so ourselves.
The depths to which this country has sunk under Labour and Conservative governments tells you everything you need to know about their current pitiful polling levels...
That's what allies are for.
Jesus Christ
Grow up.
There are enough UK aircraft there and have been for weeks to protect Cyprus 5 times over.
I mean that's demonstrably not true, otherwise there wouldn't have been that drone strike.
Worth considering that no defence system is foolproof. The UAE have invested in one of the most advanced air defence systems in the world. They were attacked over 1000 missiles and drones and shot down 94% of them. That still means 60 got through. Same with Israel and the Iron Dome. No system currently in existence can stop every attack.
A lot of people in the Gulf are going to be looking at their layered air defence. Lasers as standard on the top of big buildings within a couple of years? Although oil and gas facilities need to be protected. And then the Straits...
Imagine the service charge on an apartment building with its own anti-drone defence.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
Commiserations. Havering council are utterly ruthless about squeezing money out of motoring infingments. It was the case when it was Conservative-run, is the case when it's Residents' Association-run, and it's hard to see how a Reform council would be able to do anything different.
They've got very little choice, of course- as MelonB pointed out, it's a significant slice of their income these days, and they would be financially stuffed without it. (Or in Havering's case, even more stuffed than they are.) And the other consequence of this is that there are hardly any staff around to deal with problems. Not because they all work from home- the staff simply don't exist.
(Which reminds me, I need to spend an age trying to chase up another issue with them. Oh, for their late-night-jazz hold music...)
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
I seem to recall some stories of american municipalities getting ridiculous amounts from speeding fines and similar, upwards of 50% of their entire city budgets. At which point you are just begging people to break the rules, whereas UK authorities it is still only a tiny amount of the whole.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
These aircraft should not be allowed to land on British Soil.
Over 1000 civilians dead already after illegal war started by the US and Israel - and all this with no vote in the UK parliament about our role.
It's got none of the ingredients that makes an uneven war like this palatable,. Primarily there isn't a single leader who can be demonised like Sadam or to a lesser extent Gadaffi and the US and Israel are the least attractive bullies in the world. To make it worse Hegseth personally has behaved disgustingly
Well there was one, but he was liquidated on day one
OT. I saw the film 'The Bride' and though it made little sense as a story for all the other things that make up a film -photography acting styling lighting sets script I loved it. Most of all for all things Jessie Buckly. She was brilliant. Christian Bale wasn't bad either.
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
I'm sure they do, factions exist even within the most rigid of regimes as that is simply human nature and the inevitabilty of needing other people to dominate and control*. Even if the regime is united in utter hatred for their foreign opponents with a whole bunch of people dead there will be different ideas on how to respond, to the extent they are able.
*probably why authoritarian regimes will outsource to AI as soon as they can!
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
I'm sure they do, factions exist even within the most rigid of regimes as that is simply human nature and the inevitabilty of needing other people to dominate and control*. Even if the regime is united in utter hatred for their foreign opponents with a whole bunch of people dead there will be different ideas on how to respond, to the extent they are able.
*probably why authoritarian regimes will outsource to AI as soon as they can!
Another leftist expresses scepticism about the war.
Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni:
Italy will not enter into a direct conflict against Iran. Our absolute priority is de-escalation and peace, not fueling a regional fire that would be devastating for everyone.
The air bases on our territory are used for logistics and support, not as launch platforms for offensive actions without prior democratic debate.
Its not a left versus right issue, its a wrong versus right one.
And sadly most of Europe is on the wrong side.
Step away from Europe and not just America and Israel, but the Iranian public, Iranian diaspora and Gulf states want to see regime change in Iran.
Sadly Europe has become so scared of its own shadow that it can not be taken seriously anymore. Which includes the UK under this Government.
In your view - and you do have views, I’ve see you express them on this blog - is Trump in this for human rights for Iranian’s, or his eyes full of oil barrels and dollar signs?
It's quite possible that the answer is neither. Trump could just be doing this because he can, to show that he can.
That's my take and I'm pretty confident on it. It's the power and attention buzz. Other motives (even including $$$) are secondary.
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
I'm sure they do, factions exist even within the most rigid of regimes as that is simply human nature and the inevitabilty of needing other people to dominate and control*. Even if the regime is united in utter hatred for their foreign opponents with a whole bunch of people dead there will be different ideas on how to respond, to the extent they are able.
*probably why authoritarian regimes will outsource to AI as soon as they can!
I don't mean arguments over the table.
Arguments over the table is how it starts, then it can become more substantive and violent. Are they at that point yet? Awfully early for a disintegration like that you'd think, but sometimes regimes go that way.
Another leftist expresses scepticism about the war.
Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni:
Italy will not enter into a direct conflict against Iran. Our absolute priority is de-escalation and peace, not fueling a regional fire that would be devastating for everyone.
The air bases on our territory are used for logistics and support, not as launch platforms for offensive actions without prior democratic debate.
Its not a left versus right issue, its a wrong versus right one.
And sadly most of Europe is on the wrong side.
Step away from Europe and not just America and Israel, but the Iranian public, Iranian diaspora and Gulf states want to see regime change in Iran.
Sadly Europe has become so scared of its own shadow that it can not be taken seriously anymore. Which includes the UK under this Government.
In your view - and you do have views, I’ve see you express them on this blog - is Trump in this for human rights for Iranian’s, or his eyes full of oil barrels and dollar signs?
It's quite possible that the answer is neither. Trump could just be doing this because he can, to show that he can.
That's my take and I'm pretty confident on it. It's the power and attention buzz. Other motives (even including $$$) are secondary.
Which may partly explain the particular nature of his ire about the recent Supreme Court decision. Whatever the merits of what he was doing, he was raging at the idea he was told he could not do something, no matter what that something was.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
It would be mayhem.
Actually it was a bus stop. I suppose that is worse, but there wasn’t a bus in it!
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
Sure, but how would we know?
Indeed, there is little public information on the extent of how much the current regime is hurting or whether factionalism is becoming more than disagreement. The regime is broadly agreed on the main strategy being to outlast the notoriously fickle democracies and surviving, but some of them I would bet want to sue for peace now others will seek to stay in there even if their country becomes a dust bowl.
The Saudis in particular, other GCC countries and some Europeans are working the phones hard to lobby the Iranians to bring this to an end, and are insistent that something can be cobbled together that keeps the Islamic regime intact.
Aaron Rupar @atrupar · 40m CNN's Dana Bash reports on a conversation she just had with Trump: "He quickly turned to Cuba. He said without being asked, 'Cuba is going to fall pretty soon.'"
Rubio’s Latin American policy has been incredibly successful so far.
Yes, he has managed to overthow... let me just count up the numbers again... 0 (zero) regimes in the region.
He's flipped Venezuela from being a Russian ally to being a US ally without creating any wider instability. That's a phenomenal foreign policy success whichever way you look at it.
Yes, even I can cheerfully concede it's been a remarkable turn of events.
The cynic in me looks at this piece and sees the emphasis on oil supply:
We are in what Fallout called "the Resource Wars" (we have been for a while I suspect) where it isn't any longer about ideology or faith but simply energy or rather raw materials.
I suspect Delcy Rodriguez sold out Maduro to the Americans and facilitated his seizure by US Special Forces. She was basically given a free hand in the running of Venezuela (as with many revolutionaries, her loyalty wasn't to red but to green) in exchange for ensuring American control of Venezulean oil and its supply to the US.
This sounds like a "new" foreign policy but it isn't. Replacing the uncorruptible ideologue with the corruptible pragmatist has happened before and it will happen again. Revolutions can be bought and sold just like socks or shoes if you have the money.
As for Iran, it's more of a challenge. Clerics aren't as susceptible to the blandishments of money as revolutionaries so there needs to be a different approach but ultimately I suspect a leader for Iran will be bought and paid for and he will take over as head of a new Government who will be more pragmatic and friendly to Washington.
I imagine the plan for Cuba will be a hybrid approach - kidnap or kill the main leadership and find someone further down the tree who will be bought and paid for but it will happen "in the name of the Revolution".
It's not a million miles away from how Moscow ran the Warsaw Pact from 1945 to 1989 - moderate leaders like Nagy and Dubcek went too far and were "replaced" by more compliant leaders and when Gorbachev took over, the hardline neo-Stalinists were themselves on borrowed time.
The Warsaw Pact was established in 1955, six years after NATO. True that Imre Nagy's withdrawal of Hungary from it the following year didn't go down well in Moscow.
Tito broke away in 1948.
Not from the Warsaw Pact though. And probably to Stalin's rejoicing. The USSR didn't back Yugoslavia's claim on Trieste. Different picture entirely with Nagy in 1956.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
I went 10 years clean then got 2 tickets in one day last week. A single drive to SE25 and back. A bus lane and 27 in a 20. Annoying but I'm now ok for another 10 years.
OT. I saw the film 'The Bride' and though it made little sense as a story for all the other things that make up a film -photography acting styling lighting sets script I loved it. Most of all for all things Jessie Buckly. She was brilliant. Christian Bale wasn't bad either.
Have you seen The Ice Tower?
Not yet but i'm a big fan of Marion Cotillard so I will in the next few weeks. Did you like it?
Another leftist expresses scepticism about the war.
Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni:
Italy will not enter into a direct conflict against Iran. Our absolute priority is de-escalation and peace, not fueling a regional fire that would be devastating for everyone.
The air bases on our territory are used for logistics and support, not as launch platforms for offensive actions without prior democratic debate.
Its not a left versus right issue, its a wrong versus right one.
And sadly most of Europe is on the wrong side.
Step away from Europe and not just America and Israel, but the Iranian public, Iranian diaspora and Gulf states want to see regime change in Iran.
Sadly Europe has become so scared of its own shadow that it can not be taken seriously anymore. Which includes the UK under this Government.
In your view - and you do have views, I’ve see you express them on this blog - is Trump in this for human rights for Iranian’s, or his eyes full of oil barrels and dollar signs?
It's quite possible that the answer is neither. Trump could just be doing this because he can, to show that he can.
That's my take and I'm pretty confident on it. It's the power and attention buzz. Other motives (even including $$$) are secondary.
Which may partly explain the particular nature of his ire about the recent Supreme Court decision. Whatever the merits of what he was doing, he was raging at the idea he was told he could not do something, no matter what that something was.
Yes, no time for checks and balances. He wants impunity.
FWIW - Today, I did see one gas station advertising gasoline at more than 5 dollars a gallon. Here in Washington state it has been significantly higher than the national average for years, thanks to former governor Jay Inslee's policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Inslee
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
"You must pay for your parking ticket within 28 days (beginning on the date that the Penalty Charge Notice is served) to avoid additional charges. Do not pay if you want to appeal and if your appeal is accepted, the charge will be cancelled. If you are contesting the penalty, you will not be able to pay the discounted charge if your challenge is unsuccessful.... The discounted charge is only payable for 14 days from service of the PCN."
But there's also
"We have up to 56 days to process your appeal and we will write to you once it has been processed."
Given that you didn't hear anything for four months after you appealed, how long are they saying it took them to process your appeal?
Whilst people obssess about Trump and, ironically, give credence to the idea he has even more power than the considerable amount that he does already, has anyone considered the possibility that the Iranian hierarchy has some serious divisions within its own ranks?
Sure, but how would we know?
Indeed, there is little public information on the extent of how much the current regime is hurting or whether factionalism is becoming more than disagreement. The regime is broadly agreed on the main strategy being to outlast the notoriously fickle democracies and surviving, but some of them I would bet want to sue for peace now others will seek to stay in there even if their country becomes a dust bowl.
The Saudis in particular, other GCC countries and some Europeans are working the phones hard to lobby the Iranians to bring this to an end, and are insistent that something can be cobbled together that keeps the Islamic regime intact.
Trump won't stop the bombing until the uranium enrichment stops. Verifiably. Ending their nuclear ambitions is the win. Nothing else suits Bibi.
FWIW - Today, I did see one gas station advertising gasoline at more than 5 dollars a gallon. Here in Washington state it has been significantly higher than the national average for years, thanks to former governor Jay Inslee's policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Inslee
OT. I saw the film 'The Bride' and though it made little sense as a story for all the other things that make up a film -photography acting styling lighting sets script I loved it. Most of all for all things Jessie Buckly. She was brilliant. Christian Bale wasn't bad either.
Have you seen The Ice Tower?
Not yet but i'm a big fan of Marion Cotillard so I will in the next few weeks. Did you like it?
No. Not really.
Opposite to what you said about the bride - story like dream within a film making a film about a dream that was a dream about making a film that was a metaphor for something else - like the book was in nocturnal animals - but the art direction was unlikeable and nightmarish.
John Bolton a complete moron on Newsnight. By contrast an excellent American girl Jasmin something on the prog. Articulate and gave Bolton the shortest shrift he's ever been given.
Sunil - True enough, but much of the US is more car-dependent than the UK. And of course our farms use diesel and gasoline than almost anywhere else in the world.
John Bolton a complete moron on Newsnight. By contrast an excellent American girl Jasmin something on the prog. Articulate and gave Bolton the shortest shrift he's ever been given.
John Bolton a complete moron on Newsnight. By contrast an excellent American girl Jasmin something on the prog. Articulate and gave Bolton the shortest shrift he's ever been given.
I thought Bolton was against the action?
No, he's very much in favour. He thought Trump should have done something like this in his first term.
John Bolton a complete moron on Newsnight. By contrast an excellent American girl Jasmin something on the prog. Articulate and gave Bolton the shortest shrift he's ever been given.
I thought Bolton was against the action?
No, he's very much in favour. He thought Trump should have done something like this in his first term.
First time I've seen the scenario where US seizes Kharg Island--much rumored and speculated upon--mentioned in reporting.
Kharg accounts for 80-90% of Iran crude oil exports.
Or just flatten it and Bandar Abbas. I mentioned this idea a couple of weeks ago before the war started. Iran loses those its a one way ticket to economic collpase for an economy already suffering. Seizing it would easy and holding it probably not that much harder, however, the US has a problem and it sound ridicluous but they are a bit short of boats to run a naval picket because a) they just dont have enough in theatre which may get rectified with the second carrier group coming in and b) the US Navy wisely has kept what boats it has out in the Indian Ocean to limit the possibility of a hit.
Naval escort duties are going to necessitate a change in resourcing and approach alongside the GCC countries, The latter could give this a good go themselves if they actually tried it
The poll on front of the “i” not so great for Starmer and Labours war position - over a fifth of voters in favour of UK joining Trump, Bibi and the Australians in the mission against Iran - less than half of voters back the governments position.
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
"You must pay for your parking ticket within 28 days (beginning on the date that the Penalty Charge Notice is served) to avoid additional charges. Do not pay if you want to appeal and if your appeal is accepted, the charge will be cancelled. If you are contesting the penalty, you will not be able to pay the discounted charge if your challenge is unsuccessful.... The discounted charge is only payable for 14 days from service of the PCN."
But there's also
"We have up to 56 days to process your appeal and we will write to you once it has been processed."
Given that you didn't hear anything for four months after you appealed, how long are they saying it took them to process your appeal?
The poll on front of the “i” not so great for Starmer and Labours war position - over a fifth of voters in favour of UK joining Trump, Bibi and the Australians in the mission against Iran - less than half of voters back the governments position.
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
The charitable answer is that voters have sussed that any economic hit is coming our way whether we join in or not. And that we should join in because the Iranian regime is horrible. I don't think that overthrowing that regime works without boots on the ground, and I doubt that anyone is really up for that, but that's second order.
More likely but less charitably, voters haven't made the connection between the not-a-war and rising prices. It didn't really work that way in 2022/3, we all just blamed the government. Same as voters around the world. Chances are that the same thing- the "if there's a war on, the government should just subsidise the extra costs" mentality that borked the public finances- will happen this time.
OT. I saw the film 'The Bride' and though it made little sense as a story for all the other things that make up a film -photography acting styling lighting sets script I loved it. Most of all for all things Jessie Buckly. She was brilliant. Christian Bale wasn't bad either.
Have you seen The Ice Tower?
Not yet but i'm a big fan of Marion Cotillard so I will in the next few weeks. Did you like it?
No. Not really.
Opposite to what you said about the bride - story like dream within a film making a film about a dream that was a dream about making a film that was a metaphor for something else - like the book was in nocturnal animals - but the art direction was unlikeable and nightmarish.
This was much less esoteric. Though the story was not understandable what was there was and it was entertaining. She was very sexy which isn't something I've seen her be before and her styling and make up was wonderful. She only wore one outdit for the whole film though she was in every scene and how they replicated her make up for over two and a quarter hours was a mystery. I'm a big fan of female directors and this was an example of why. She was at ease with everything she was asked to do
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
It would be mayhem.
France is even worse. I spent about eight weeks driving in France last year and racked up about £500 in multiple fines, some of them absurdly obscure - "parking in a temporary disabled bay that operates 1-3pm autumn market days and Easter Saturday" - I saw no sign to that effect, there was probably one sign hidden behind the mayor's portrait of Marianne
Driving is becoming a new way for hard pressed governments to squeeze out billions in taxes
The poll on front of the “i” not so great for Starmer and Labours war position - over a fifth of voters in favour of UK joining Trump, Bibi and the Australians in the mission against Iran - less than half of voters back the governments position.
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
Wars become less popular when these side effects become real. This is the least popular war ever at its commencement. It's 47-22 opposed. Which could also be framed as more than 2 to 1.
The poll on front of the “i” not so great for Starmer and Labours war position - over a fifth of voters in favour of UK joining Trump, Bibi and the Australians in the mission against Iran - less than half of voters back the governments position.
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
Wars become less popular when these side effects become real. This is the least popular war ever at its commencement. It's 47-22 opposed. Which could also be framed as more than 2 to 1.
It is Reform and to a lesser extent Tory voters who think Starmer is Neville Chamberlain 2 and fully back the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and zero chance of them changing their minds as they despise SKS and his Labour government. As you say though most Labour and LD voters back Starmer's position in staying out beyond defensive actions and Green voters don't even back doing that
FWIW - Today, I did see one gas station advertising gasoline at more than 5 dollars a gallon. Here in Washington state it has been significantly higher than the national average for years, thanks to former governor Jay Inslee's policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Inslee
'Reform UK is mulling rolling out new grammar schools if Nigel Farage wins the next general election, The i Paper understands.
Reform’s leaders and activists are wildly supportive of selective education and the party does not believe in “banning things for the sake of banning things,” a senior source said.
While there are currently 163 grammar schools in England, the creation of new selective secondary schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998. In recent years, the Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Liz Truss backed lifting the ban but never got around to doing so.
But with Reform having led opinion polls for many months, the issue of new grammar schools looks set to return to the political agenda.
House of Commons library research suggests that in January 2022, there were 188,000 pupils attending grammar schools in England, which admit children through an entrance exam taken at age 10-11, called the 11-plus. While new grammar schools are banned, current ones can expand their numbers or extend their buildings.
A senior Reform source told The i Paper that there was “a lot” of support for new selective schools in the party.
Some very bright people need to start thinking about how to square the circle of the EU and Europe. Either incentive has to be given to bring every European country into a close “United States” or the EU needs to relax into a common defensive grouping that replaces NATO. The EU will never work as a NATO alternative ad “Europe” has as many different priorities as the EU.
If the EU relaxed there is a way forward that benefits all the current members.
The poll on front of the “i” not so great for Starmer and Labours war position - over a fifth of voters in favour of UK joining Trump, Bibi and the Australians in the mission against Iran - less than half of voters back the governments position.
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
The charitable answer is that voters have sussed that any economic hit is coming our way whether we join in or not. And that we should join in because the Iranian regime is horrible. I don't think that overthrowing that regime works without boots on the ground, and I doubt that anyone is really up for that, but that's second order.
More likely but less charitably, voters haven't made the connection between the not-a-war and rising prices. It didn't really work that way in 2022/3, we all just blamed the government. Same as voters around the world. Chances are that the same thing- the "if there's a war on, the government should just subsidise the extra costs" mentality that borked the public finances- will happen this time.
Thanks for your reply.
The answer to your last point, Hunt in an interview just this week revealed how much Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) cost the UK. £94B the Conservatives spent on it.
Starmer’s government CANNOT find £94B for it this year - the government credit card is already on limit, taxes at limit, even if they slashed all promised extra fun’s for public services for next few years, they won’t find it.
Starmer’s government can’t simply put £94B EPG into this autumns budget, the markets won’t allow them, the result will make the Truss budget debacle look like a mere canopy before dinner.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
Hunt paid for £94B EPG through borrowing and windfall taxes, but just 9% was covered by Windfall Taxes.
The Labour Governments economy and finances - and pinning hopes on economy for some political recovery - have been completely screwed by Trumps Iran war havn’t they? We have to factor this into political betting.
Where will Kemi Badenoch stand on Starmer’s government Windfall Taxes on Oil Companies this year? The coming financial crisis and UK economic meltdown could be the making of Kemi and the Conservative recovery.
'Reform UK is mulling rolling out new grammar schools if Nigel Farage wins the next general election, The i Paper understands.
Reform’s leaders and activists are wildly supportive of selective education and the party does not believe in “banning things for the sake of banning things,” a senior source said.
While there are currently 163 grammar schools in England, the creation of new selective secondary schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998. In recent years, the Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Liz Truss backed lifting the ban but never got around to doing so.
But with Reform having led opinion polls for many months, the issue of new grammar schools looks set to return to the political agenda.
House of Commons library research suggests that in January 2022, there were 188,000 pupils attending grammar schools in England, which admit children through an entrance exam taken at age 10-11, called the 11-plus. While new grammar schools are banned, current ones can expand their numbers or extend their buildings.
A senior Reform source told The i Paper that there was “a lot” of support for new selective schools in the party.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
It would be mayhem.
France is even worse. I spent about eight weeks driving in France last year and racked up about £500 in multiple fines, some of them absurdly obscure - "parking in a temporary disabled bay that operates 1-3pm autumn market days and Easter Saturday" - I saw no sign to that effect, there was probably one sign hidden behind the mayor's portrait of Marianne
Driving is becoming a new way for hard pressed governments to squeeze out billions in taxes
It's true in the US too: I got a speeding ticket in rural Alabama where the speed limit abruptly changed from 70mph to 50mph after a bend, with the sign well camouflaged behind a tree.
There was a police car hidden just behind that, so you had essentially no chance to slow down. The locals knew of course, but us tourists were manna from heaven for the municipality's finances.
'Reform UK is mulling rolling out new grammar schools if Nigel Farage wins the next general election, The i Paper understands.
Reform’s leaders and activists are wildly supportive of selective education and the party does not believe in “banning things for the sake of banning things,” a senior source said.
While there are currently 163 grammar schools in England, the creation of new selective secondary schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998. In recent years, the Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Liz Truss backed lifting the ban but never got around to doing so.
But with Reform having led opinion polls for many months, the issue of new grammar schools looks set to return to the political agenda.
House of Commons library research suggests that in January 2022, there were 188,000 pupils attending grammar schools in England, which admit children through an entrance exam taken at age 10-11, called the 11-plus. While new grammar schools are banned, current ones can expand their numbers or extend their buildings.
A senior Reform source told The i Paper that there was “a lot” of support for new selective schools in the party.
It’s nuts really that such a small part of the globe has had such a grim influence on the rest. That tiny slither. Religions, oil, money, war. I’m siuitanly drunk that it baffles me and I have no answers but not drunk enough to be bamboozled by those weirdos who thin their god wants children and others to die to posses it. Oh well.
BREAKING: U.S. military conducts strike on narco-terrorist network in Ecuador. The strike was carried out in cooperation with the Ecuadorian government.
Is it correct that if you appeal a parking ticket and your appeal is not accepted, you have to pay the additional fine for late payment rather than the original 28 days price?
In most places you just pay the 28 day price but don’t get the 14 day half price “deal”.
I stopped in a bus lane last May for 10 seconds to drop my Dad off at the station to visit my Mum in hospital, and got £140 fine. Appealed it that day and didn't hear anything for four months. Then got a letter saying they were now issuing a charge certificate on top, so it was £210. I called and they said I had to email. I emailed and they said they had a backlog of enquiries, they would be in touch and not to contact them again.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
I’m a veteran of random fines. They’re almost impossible to avoid around here: stopping in bus lanes, school streets, LTNs, you name it. It’s like trying to stay healthy in a city ravaged by a typhoid epidemic. In most cases I pay up because the fines aren’t too high - more like a tax. But if I do appeal (and I’m usually unsuccessful) generally they seem to shut up if you show evidence you appealed within the timeframe.
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
Much sympathy from me for you and Isam.
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
It would be mayhem.
France is even worse. I spent about eight weeks driving in France last year and racked up about £500 in multiple fines, some of them absurdly obscure - "parking in a temporary disabled bay that operates 1-3pm autumn market days and Easter Saturday" - I saw no sign to that effect, there was probably one sign hidden behind the mayor's portrait of Marianne
Driving is becoming a new way for hard pressed governments to squeeze out billions in taxes
It's true in the US too: I got a speeding ticket in rural Alabama where the speed limit abruptly changed from 70mph to 50mph after a bend, with the sign well camouflaged behind a tree.
There was a police car hidden just behind that, so you had essentially no chance to slow down. The locals knew of course, but us tourists were manna from heaven for the municipality's finances.
This would be enough for me to declare war, legal or not.
Csn anyone recommend an alternative to Betfair, either an exchange type deal or a regular bookie where one can lay/back against in football markets?
Specifically I want to bet against Cov gaining promotion, ideally laying for a £1000-1500 return, assuming pricing is reasonable. Thanks.
(Betfair have singled my account out for 're-verification' for some reason, and have completely locked me out, despite my sending perfectly good documentation three days ago...)
Smarkets. As a long suffering Cov fan I fear that one is more likely than the pundits think..
Tell me about it... in 2001 I spent ages mid-season trying to find someone that would offer me odds on Angel not scoring a single goal for V*lla until their game against us, when he'd definitely score. Probably should've been worth 50/1 or thereabouts, maybe longer.
Smarkets is no go, sadly. They appear to have zero available liquidity, except on the 'Winner' market, which I don't care about...
It's annoying me to see 1/25 for promotion and think 'Yeah, great, so let us pessimists/realists have a piece of that on the downside!'...
Betdaq and Matchbook might be worth a look or you could try Twixing the normal bookies and asking for a special price; they do that nowadays.
America is not Ukraine's ally, you mean. Presumably getting Russian oil back onto the market is being floated because the White House has only just realised that blowing up the Middle East reduces supply from there. Midterms plus rising petrol prices...
America is not Ukraine's ally, you mean. Presumably getting Russian oil back onto the market is being floated because the White House has only just realised that blowing up the Middle East reduces supply from there. Midterms plus rising petrol prices...
Yes. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.
RAF flight plans published online in ‘staggering’ security blunder Messages reveal British fighter jets’ possible location, including details of missions over Cyprus
Details of Royal Air Force missions have been published online for years in a “staggering” security blunder, The Telegraph can disclose.
Messages that reveal air-to-air refuelling flight plans and the possible locations of British fighter jets have been broadcast by the the RAF over an insecure aviation messaging system that anyone can read.
Comments
https://x.com/firasshams1/status/1936116996057284972?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
In the 80s tanker war, the insurance premiums peaked at 5-10% of the value of the ship plus the cargo. That is per trip.
At this time we have gone up from about 0.2% of the value, to about 1.5%-2.5%.
The highest rates are for UK and USA and (I am assuming) Israeli owned or flagged ships, since we are Satan.
As if there are U.K. flagged ships.
In January I got another letter saying baliffs might be round, so I emailed them again and got the same auto reply. Now it is going to some court in Northampton, and it is £220, with the threat of baliff's recovery costs as well! But they won't answer the phone ,or reply to emails
This is Havering Council, not a private firm
Anyway, my commiserations. It’s another example of the enshittification of public life that councils rely for a significant portion of their annual budgets on parking and traffic infringement income.
They've got very little choice, of course- as MelonB pointed out, it's a significant slice of their income these days, and they would be financially stuffed without it. (Or in Havering's case, even more stuffed than they are.) And the other consequence of this is that there are hardly any staff around to deal with problems. Not because they all work from home- the staff simply don't exist.
(Which reminds me, I need to spend an age trying to chase up another issue with them. Oh, for their late-night-jazz hold music...)
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2030037904697720858
I find the bus lane tyranny particularly irksome. If motorists never went into a bus lane, the traffic would quickly grind to a halt. And yet minor incursions such as Isam describes are punished with the full force.
Drivers should 'work to rule' one day and flatly refuse to enter bus lanes and hatched zones on junctions when the exit is not completely clear just to show what happens when everyone sticks to the law and forgoes common sense. Just one day of doing this would make the point.
It would be mayhem.
*probably why authoritarian regimes will outsource to AI as soon as they can!
BREAKING: The Lebanese justice minister Adel Nassar will request the arrest of Hezbollah’s secretary general Naim Qassem.
Of course, Hezbollah does a bunch of non-terrorist stuff as well, will the Lebanese State be able to step in even if they can finally remove its guns?
The Saudis in particular, other GCC countries and some Europeans are working the phones hard to lobby the Iranians to bring this to an end, and are insistent that something can be cobbled together that keeps the Islamic regime intact.
But 5 dollars a gallon is unprecedented in almost all of the state: https://mynorthwest.com/local/wa-iran-gas-prices/4211046
https://www.havering.gov.uk/parking-2/parking-tickets-traffic-fines/2
"You must pay for your parking ticket within 28 days (beginning on the date that the Penalty Charge Notice is served) to avoid additional charges. Do not pay if you want to appeal and if your appeal is accepted, the charge will be cancelled. If you are contesting the penalty, you will not be able to pay the discounted charge if your challenge is unsuccessful.... The discounted charge is only payable for 14 days from service of the PCN."
But there's also
"We have up to 56 days to process your appeal and we will write to you once it has been processed."
Given that you didn't hear anything for four months after you appealed, how long are they saying it took them to process your appeal?
This is a good site for this kind of thing:
https://www.ftla.uk/
Opposite to what you said about the bride - story like dream within a film making a film about a dream that was a dream about making a film that was a metaphor for something else - like the book was in nocturnal animals - but the art direction was unlikeable and nightmarish.
First time I've seen the scenario where US seizes Kharg Island--much rumored and speculated upon--mentioned in reporting.
Kharg accounts for 80-90% of Iran crude oil exports.
A little more doddery, but obviously not demented.
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/2030023009025613902
Naval escort duties are going to necessitate a change in resourcing and approach alongside the GCC countries, The latter could give this a good go themselves if they actually tried it
Seems inexplicable to me, it’s massively clear now to every voter the huge credit crises this is going to do their households and their businesses in UK, this war till end of April is huge leap in energy bills, which we know means everything expensive like all foods becuase higher energy bills involved in making it, less growth, huge hit on borrowing costs, yet a clear majority won’t tell the pollsters “let’s stay out” willingly accepting the pain involved. To me that shows it’s not as unpopular as I thought it was.
More likely but less charitably, voters haven't made the connection between the not-a-war and rising prices. It didn't really work that way in 2022/3, we all just blamed the government. Same as voters around the world. Chances are that the same thing- the "if there's a war on, the government should just subsidise the extra costs" mentality that borked the public finances- will happen this time.
Driving is becoming a new way for hard pressed governments to squeeze out billions in taxes
This is the least popular war ever at its commencement.
It's 47-22 opposed.
Which could also be framed as more than 2 to 1.
@JavierBlas
·
1h
More TACO Russian oil
US Treasury Secretary: “We may unsanction other Russian oil”
Vladimir Putin can believe his luck.
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2030048349483590010
Reform’s leaders and activists are wildly supportive of selective education and the party does not believe in “banning things for the sake of banning things,” a senior source said.
While there are currently 163 grammar schools in England, the creation of new selective secondary schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998.
In recent years, the Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Liz Truss backed lifting the ban but never got around to doing so.
But with Reform having led opinion polls for many months, the issue of new grammar schools looks set to return to the political agenda.
House of Commons library research suggests that in January 2022, there were 188,000 pupils attending grammar schools in England, which admit children through an entrance exam taken at age 10-11, called the 11-plus. While new grammar schools are banned, current ones can expand their numbers or extend their buildings.
A senior Reform source told The i Paper that there was “a lot” of support for new selective schools in the party.
They said a Reform government could legislate to end the ban on new grammars and allow people to launch new ones as free schools – schools outside of local authority control which groups like parents and charities can set up.'
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-grammar-schools-return-farage-becomes-pm-4256703?ico=in-line_link
If the EU relaxed there is a way forward that benefits all the current members.
The answer to your last point, Hunt in an interview just this week revealed how much Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) cost the UK. £94B the Conservatives spent on it.
Starmer’s government CANNOT find £94B for it this year - the government credit card is already on limit, taxes at limit, even if they slashed all promised extra fun’s for public services for next few years, they won’t find it.
Starmer’s government can’t simply put £94B EPG into this autumns budget, the markets won’t allow them, the result will make the Truss budget debacle look like a mere canopy before dinner.
The Labour Governments economy and finances - and pinning hopes on economy for some political recovery - have been completely screwed by Trumps Iran war havn’t they? We have to factor this into political betting.
Where will Kemi Badenoch stand on Starmer’s government Windfall Taxes on Oil Companies this year? The coming financial crisis and UK economic meltdown could be the making of Kemi and the Conservative recovery.
There was a police car hidden just behind that, so you had essentially no chance to slow down. The locals knew of course, but us tourists were manna from heaven for the municipality's finances.
His ill-considered conflict risks descending into chaos"
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/05/donald-trump-must-stop-soon
BREAKING: U.S. military conducts strike on narco-terrorist network in Ecuador. The strike was carried out in cooperation with the Ecuadorian government.
Messages reveal British fighter jets’ possible location, including details of missions over Cyprus
Details of Royal Air Force missions have been published online for years in a “staggering” security blunder, The Telegraph can disclose.
Messages that reveal air-to-air refuelling flight plans and the possible locations of British fighter jets have been broadcast by the the RAF over an insecure aviation messaging system that anyone can read.
The practice, which appears to have carried on for several years, includes details of recent missions in the skies over Cyprus, which has been attacked by Iranian drones.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/06/raf-flight-plans-published-online-security-blunder/ (£££)
Of course they do...
He consistently advocates for US rather than NATO interests.
https://x.com/thorstenbenner/status/2029993559743463702