If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
I think the parallel is with the far right in France. Big enough to unsettle, not big enough to win power.
Lets hope, anyway,
The French system seems designed to stop a party with the support of ~one-third, well in the lead because the other two-thirds is split multiple ways, but anathema to that two-thirds, from winning. The British voting system could well give such a party a landslide majority, unless voters intuit well enough how to vote tactically to prevent it from happening.
Either way, if we think the public aren't particularly happy about the landslide Labour majority they elected in 2024, I imagine that is nothing compared to the awesome displeasure they will feel about the result of the next general election.
The cordon sanitaire has almost broken down in France anyway. Not only do RN win a bigger first round vote than in the past, they also get far more support from centre right voters in round 2, than in the past.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
It might be an idea for The To ries, Lib Dems, Labour Party to make a legal claim of false representation against The Green Party.
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
That sounds like something that local authorities would encourage here.
Years ago, my ex had a daughter with severe learning difficulties.
A social worker, told my ex, to her face, that “it would have been better if the child hadn’t been born”.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
In which case I will be wrong. Time will tell as it always does Farages vehicles dont tend to pass MOT more than once (but he might buy another car)
They say there’s nothing left to be discovered, no more of the world to be explored, no sense of wonder left to the young
Well for just proven that’s total nonsense. After centuries of dispute, when even the brightest scientists have decided the question must be unanswerable, I have just definitively shown that No, you cannot ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean
Surely you can?* (Might not be able to ride it out again)
*interested to hear the failure mode, if not - unless it's some member of the local plod smacking an idiot tourist off the bike before water entry
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
In which case I will be wrong. Time will tell as it always does Farages vehicles dont tend to pass MOT more than once (but he might buy another car)
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
In my view the Lib Dems have a USP, and it’s an increasingly unique one. The party of mainstream liberal European opinion and policy in an era of Trump, Putin, Reform, and the Corbynites running the Greens. Multilateralism, NATO, net zero, free trade, EU integration.
It’s far from a majority world-view, and is rather unfashionable in social media circles to say the least, but is nonetheless one side of the biggest global political cleavage of the era.
Labour could have taken that mantle but they’ve blown it on unpopular fiscal tinkering, sub-Farage nods to populism, and Mandelson. So could the Tories, but they’re not even attempting to go there.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
The caseworker who offered suicide was fired.
After it became a scandal.
A fair rule of thumb, is that something that has happened once, in day to day operations has happened many times.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
A generation dying off from natural causes isn't unusual even if the size of the cohort is unusual. What is unusual is the rate at which we've been killing babies for decades, the present strong desire for severe bodily mutilation as the only possible route to happiness for some, and the equally strong desire to encourage suicide for people whose difficulties are quite likely to be temporary. Plus, of course, the associated view that other people's lives can't be worth living so they're best dead.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
It might be an idea for The To ries, Lib Dems, Labour Party to make a legal claim of false representation against The Green Party.
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
Starmer has done something similar in Labour. He turned it from a party that meant things to a party that said things, disconnecting words from actions and actions from values. Polanski is the child of Starmer, filling the gap he created.
They say there’s nothing left to be discovered, no more of the world to be explored, no sense of wonder left to the young
Well for just proven that’s total nonsense. After centuries of dispute, when even the brightest scientists have decided the question must be unanswerable, I have just definitively shown that No, you cannot ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean
Surely you can?* (Might not be able to ride it out again)
*interested to hear the failure mode, if not - unless it's some member of the local plod smacking an idiot tourist off the bike before water entry
Shirley, he has proved that you *can* ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean?
As a noted submariner once said, diving is easy. Surfacing is the sign of skill.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
It seems obvious to me (so I may well be wrong) that under any assisted dying scheme it should be illegal to suggest it - certainly for healthcare or social care professionals. It should come from the person who will be dying, any other source could be coercive.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
Similarly, "24 hours to save the NHS!"
I think the potential for a collapse of Reform is that Nigel Farage will be 70 in 2034. He keeps on walking away from politics when it doesn't seem like so much fun. So I could foresee a scenario where Farage walks away after failing to win the 2029 GE and Reform descend into the infighting that beset UKIP after Farage walked away from them in 2016.
You could make some counter-arguments to this. Perhaps Farage would find being Leader of the Opposition sufficiently entertaining to stick around. Plus it gets him appointed to the Privy Council - the sort of establishment recognition I think he craves. And Winston Churchill was 76 when he became PM for the second time, so 70 isn't perhaps all that old.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
It seems obvious to me (so I may well be wrong) that under any assisted dying scheme it should be illegal to suggest it - certainly for healthcare or social care professionals. It should come from the person who will be dying, any other source could be coercive.
Quite.
Just imagine the pressures in a hospital ward, with long term elderly “blocking the beds”.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
It might be an idea for The To ries, Lib Dems, Labour Party to make a legal claim of false representation against The Green Party.
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
Starmer has done something similar in Labour. He turned it from a party that meant things to a party that said things, disconnecting words from actions and actions from values. Polanski is the child of Starmer, filling the gap he created.
It concerns me quite a bit that the words I was expecting to hear from SKS immediately after the GE - 'it will be difficult, it will be painful, but it can be done' - are now being spoken by Rupert Lowe.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
Similarly, "24 hours to save the NHS!"
I think the potential for a collapse of Reform is that Nigel Farage will be 70 in 2034. He keeps on walking away from politics when it doesn't seem like so much fun. So I could foresee a scenario where Farage walks away after failing to win the 2029 GE and Reform descend into the infighting that beset UKIP after Farage walked away from them in 2016.
You could make some counter-arguments to this. Perhaps Farage would find being Leader of the Opposition sufficiently entertaining to stick around. Plus it gets him appointed to the Privy Council - the sort of establishment recognition I think he craves. And Winston Churchill was 76 when he became PM for the second time, so 70 isn't perhaps all that old.
Farage has - at best - two and a half years to suckle the Trumpian teat. During those two years he could likely make tens of millions. Set himslef up for a fabulous retirement from public life. He could even get an account with Coutts Bank, for the shitz 'n gigglez.
Or he could fanny about as the MP for Clacton, hating that job - as he sees the millions drain through the timer.
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
That's a really strange prediction. What factors would lead to the best guess for Reform being at the bottom of their range?
I assume it's because Ref voters are unlikely to tactically vote for anyone else, but they may get some others voting tactically for them, hence the smaller range with them at the lowest possible end. Both Lab and Green include votes who may or may not vote tactically for others.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
It seems obvious to me (so I may well be wrong) that under any assisted dying scheme it should be illegal to suggest it - certainly for healthcare or social care professionals. It should come from the person who will be dying, any other source could be coercive.
Quite.
Just imagine the pressures in a hospital ward, with long term elderly “blocking the beds”.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
I'm not questioning your logic, but I see plenty of evidence that the electorate don't think that way. The SNP have been claiming for years that Scotlands needs independence now. MAGA bounced back after losing the 2020 election. Farage has been peddling much the same message since at least 1999!
Similarly, "24 hours to save the NHS!"
I think the potential for a collapse of Reform is that Nigel Farage will be 70 in 2034. He keeps on walking away from politics when it doesn't seem like so much fun. So I could foresee a scenario where Farage walks away after failing to win the 2029 GE and Reform descend into the infighting that beset UKIP after Farage walked away from them in 2016.
You could make some counter-arguments to this. Perhaps Farage would find being Leader of the Opposition sufficiently entertaining to stick around. Plus it gets him appointed to the Privy Council - the sort of establishment recognition I think he craves. And Winston Churchill was 76 when he became PM for the second time, so 70 isn't perhaps all that old.
Farage's hero, Donald Trump, is 79! But, sure, maybe Farage retires after 2029, but I don't think that necessarily means Reform implode. Reform are working towards building a "frontbench", and I think it's entirely possible that a successor leader can lead the party successfully. Jenrick obviously wants the role.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
In my view the Lib Dems have a USP, and it’s an increasingly unique one. The party of mainstream liberal European opinion and policy in an era of Trump, Putin, Reform, and the Corbynites running the Greens. Multilateralism, NATO, net zero, free trade, EU integration.
It’s far from a majority world-view, and is rather unfashionable in social media circles to say the least, but is nonetheless one side of the biggest global political cleavage of the era.
Labour could have taken that mantle but they’ve blown it on unpopular fiscal tinkering, sub-Farage nods to populism, and Mandelson. So could the Tories, but they’re not even attempting to go there.
It's a USP, and an important one (and I think the LDs have several times articulated this in recent years, notably during covid), but: 1) I don't think it's necessarily a terribly popular one - 'more' rules always seems more popular than 'fewer' 2) I'm not convinced all Lib Dem MPs are fully bought into old-fashioned liberalism - there is a distinct strain more at home with what they call liberalism in the USA, which I would classify as simply not-conservatism 3) My personal view is that the Lib Dem enthusiasm for all things European, which to me is a) not a particularly liberal institution (it much prefers more rules to fewer) and b) is in any case nowadays increasingly dominated by illiberal voices.
Still, I do buy into your view that there is an important voice which needs articulating here and that the LDs are better placed than any to do it.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
There will be huge pressure for the government to introduce their own legislation now. I sincerely hope they've given a bit of thought to this, rather than just assuming it's safely in the long grass.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
It seems obvious to me (so I may well be wrong) that under any assisted dying scheme it should be illegal to suggest it - certainly for healthcare or social care professionals. It should come from the person who will be dying, any other source could be coercive.
Quite.
Just imagine the pressures in a hospital ward, with long term elderly “blocking the beds”.
Gosport comes to mind.
Yup
With my father, the resistance to getting him on a drip was... interesting.
As was the hilarious reaction to the letter that got sent to the head of the trust.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Of course if the Lords stop playing silly games, after all they've had a huge amount of silly game time it may pass in the House of Commons.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
Apparently not - but that's via a YouTube video, not knowledge.
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
Your point about postals is the first genuinely mechanical explanation I’ve seen today. Postals are often decisive in tight races, and there’s a new wrinkle: under Elections Act changes, postal voters now have to reapply every 3 years, with the first cohort needing to reapply by 31 Jan 2026 or lose their postal vote.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
Apparently not - but that's via a YouTube video, not knowledge.
Not gas certified? Next you'll be telling me her reaction to the suggestion of a new policy isn't -
1) Look shocked 2) Scratch her chin 3) Suck teeth 4) "It'll cost you"
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Of course if the Lords stop playing silly games, after all they've had a huge amount of silly game time it may pass in the House of Commons.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
Sir Keir Starmer - the PM who is so keen to kill of his inconvenient people that he'll make sweeping constitutional changes to eliminate those who won't comply. Sounds a vote-winning strategy to me.
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
It was effectively a new seat in 2024 due to subtle boundary changes.
Labour will have all of their 2024 but Reform and Greens both polled double figure percentages so they should have data, although it might be on a fag packet and recyclable notepad respectively
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Of course if the Lords stop playing silly games, after all they've had a huge amount of silly game time it may pass in the House of Commons.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
Which would slightly set on fire his claim that this is just a private members bill.
Though, on the upside, attempting to abolish the Lords would give him another opportunity to do a 180. Followed by a 360. Followed by a 540.
I can only imagine the hurt on Charles Dance's face.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
It's an interesting take on the 70's porno scenario, for sure....
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
It might be an idea for The To ries, Lib Dems, Labour Party to make a legal claim of false representation against The Green Party.
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
Starmer has done something similar in Labour. He turned it from a party that meant things to a party that said things, disconnecting words from actions and actions from values. Polanski is the child of Starmer, filling the gap he created.
It concerns me quite a bit that the words I was expecting to hear from SKS immediately after the GE - 'it will be difficult, it will be painful, but it can be done' - are now being spoken by Rupert Lowe.
Starmer has saved Labour from a commie and taken it back to the centre left.
My prediction is a Green win, with Reform second and large amount of tactical voting by Labour (and other party) voters. It's just possible that Labour, having all the previous voting data, could hold on and it's also possible that Labour/Greens get roughly the same and Reform comes through to win on a small percentage. However I'm sticking with a Green win and the lesson being that anti-Reform voting will be a major factor in future elections IF the main challenger is easy to identify.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
You will. I'm not up to speed on her technique but I'll speak to her agent and try to get better and further particulars. I'm sure all of us with daughters will want them to follow her career path into parliament
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
Your point about postals is the first genuinely mechanical explanation I’ve seen today. Postals are often decisive in tight races, and there’s a new wrinkle: under Elections Act changes, postal voters now have to reapply every 3 years, with the first cohort needing to reapply by 31 Jan 2026 or lose their postal vote.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
While on the subject of postals, the electoral services operation in big elections will start opening and processing the postal votes before polls have closed - even a day or so before. Party election agents are entitled to attend and observe, so I would watch out for sudden shifts in the betting markets. Something like this happened with a Labour candidate a few general elections back - can't remember the circumstances and I don't think betting was involved. But there was a row at the time about breaking the voting secrecy laws.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
Your point about postals is the first genuinely mechanical explanation I’ve seen today. Postals are often decisive in tight races, and there’s a new wrinkle: under Elections Act changes, postal voters now have to reapply every 3 years, with the first cohort needing to reapply by 31 Jan 2026 or lose their postal vote.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
While on the subject of postals, the electoral services operation in big elections will start opening and processing the postal votes before polls have closed - even a day or so before. Party election agents are entitled to attend and observe, so I would watch out for sudden shifts in the betting markets. Something like this happened with a Labour candidate a few general elections back - can't remember the circumstances and I don't think betting was involved. But there was a row at the time about breaking the voting secrecy laws.
It's known as "postal vote sampling". In theory it shouldn't happen: the votes are opened and verified with the votes downwards (so not visible) and disclosure is illegal. But agents can tell the size of a pile and the wards they are from and draw the conclusions. IIRC the Scottish Conservative then-leader Ruth Davidson said they were confident of victory in an election (I can't remember which one) due to postal vote sampling and then row happened.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
Bit harsh on the medics at the local surgery, to say don't resuscitate *them*?
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
Your point about postals is the first genuinely mechanical explanation I’ve seen today. Postals are often decisive in tight races, and there’s a new wrinkle: under Elections Act changes, postal voters now have to reapply every 3 years, with the first cohort needing to reapply by 31 Jan 2026 or lose their postal vote.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
While on the subject of postals, the electoral services operation in big elections will start opening and processing the postal votes before polls have closed - even a day or so before. Party election agents are entitled to attend and observe, so I would watch out for sudden shifts in the betting markets. Something like this happened with a Labour candidate a few general elections back - can't remember the circumstances and I don't think betting was involved. But there was a row at the time about breaking the voting secrecy laws.
It's known as "postal vote sampling". In theory it shouldn't happen: the votes are opened and verified with the votes downwards (so not visible) and disclosure is illegal. But agents can tell the size of a pile and the wards they are from and draw the conclusions. IIRC the Scottish Conservative then-leader Ruth Davidson said they were confident of victory in an election (I can't remember which one) due to postal vote sampling and then row happened.
Yes. Agents are allowed to observe and draw any conclusions they want. They cannot tell anyone of their observations/thoughts until the election is over. Disclosure of non-personal information after the election is over is fine.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Of course if the Lords stop playing silly games, after all they've had a huge amount of silly game time it may pass in the House of Commons.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
It is not as simple as that
It could be brought back but is unlikely
The government could bring it back but as it is not a manifesto commitment using the parliament act would make it controversial
Abolishing the lords will not save the act, but apparently even if it comes back it will not come into force before the next GE and which party wants a fight on this in an election
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
Bit harsh on the medics at the local surgery, to say don't resuscitate *them*?
LoL; bad phraseology. Having had six or so months of carers three or four times a day and being wheeled round the house on a heavy frame I'm not anxious to repeat the experience.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
You will. I'm not up to speed on her technique but I'll speak to her agent and try to get better and further particulars. I'm sure all of us with daughters will want them to follow her career path into parliament
Not at all
I would be very proud if my daughter was a qualified plumber with great career propects and a guaranteed job for life
We need many more plumbers and a lot less politicians
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sorry, you lost me there Roger.
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
Greens to win. My prediction from day one. Who doesn't need a plumber?
I've have heard nothing about the quality of her work - can she solder joints to water tight without a second pass? Is she gas certified?
You will. I'm not up to speed on her technique but I'll speak to her agent and try to get better and further particulars. I'm sure all of us with daughters will want them to follow her career path into parliament
IIRC it turned on whether fitting heat pumps is a fully-qualified gas certified plumber's job. No detriment to her or her work if it isn't.
Meanwhile the government has come out with the Impact Assessment for its proposals for severely limiting trial by jury, proposals for which it has no mandate whatsoever and which it wants to push through in double quick time before the May local elections, with the minimum of scrutiny and no consultation. It is also proposing applying this law retrospectively.
It helpfully describes the overarching policy objectives of this proposal -
"Overarching Policy Objectives • The overall policy objectives of the measures outlined in this IA are: • To address the existing backlog of outstanding cases in the Crown Court and to turn the tide on the rising open caseload so that it is on a downward trend by the end of this Parliament; • To improve timeliness in access to justice for victims, witnesses and defendants; by • ensuring a more proportionate allocation of resources across the criminal courts, in line with the severity and complexity of cases; and • To place the criminal courts on a more sustainable footing."
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
Bit harsh on the medics at the local surgery, to say don't resuscitate *them*?
It would however be appropriate on the window of our GP's reception room.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
To my way of thinking, if they needed to resuscitate me it would mean I'd already gone through the process of dying. With no dependents, why have a fight to get me alive again for the prospect of a worse death later on?
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Meanwhile the government has come out with the Impact Assessment for its proposals for severely limiting trial by jury, proposals for which it has no mandate whatsoever and which it wants to push through in double quick time before the May local elections, with the minimum of scrutiny and no consultation. It is also proposing applying this law retrospectively.
It helpfully describes the overarching policy objectives of this proposal -
"Overarching Policy Objectives • The overall policy objectives of the measures outlined in this IA are: • To address the existing backlog of outstanding cases in the Crown Court and to turn the tide on the rising open caseload so that it is on a downward trend by the end of this Parliament; • To improve timeliness in access to justice for victims, witnesses and defendants; by • ensuring a more proportionate allocation of resources across the criminal courts, in line with the severity and complexity of cases; and • To place the criminal courts on a more sustainable footing."
Note what is missing - the right to a fair trial.
You cannot hate Labour enough.
It is not even as if jury trials are what has caused the backlog. All those policy objectives are fine but have damn all to do with juries one way or the other.
ETA Conservatives closing half the courts since 2010 probably did not help.
My prediction is a Green win, with Reform second and large amount of tactical voting by Labour (and other party) voters. It's just possible that Labour, having all the previous voting data, could hold on and it's also possible that Labour/Greens get roughly the same and Reform comes through to win on a small percentage. However I'm sticking with a Green win and the lesson being that anti-Reform voting will be a major factor in future elections IF the main challenger is easy to identify.
Labour. By a whisker.
Followed by massive row about postal ballots.
Hodges says it is pouring down in Manchester this morning.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
My prediction is a Green win, with Reform second and large amount of tactical voting by Labour (and other party) voters. It's just possible that Labour, having all the previous voting data, could hold on and it's also possible that Labour/Greens get roughly the same and Reform comes through to win on a small percentage. However I'm sticking with a Green win and the lesson being that anti-Reform voting will be a major factor in future elections IF the main challenger is easy to identify.
I'd question whether Labour has previous voting data in a seat which appeared to be safe (and has had boundary changes).
Obviously the seat has been canvassed to death by all parties in the last couple of months, but that doesn't change anything.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Your Party......didnt they used to be somebody?
I think the longform title is "I wouldn't touch it with yours" Party. And it's working out just fine (grimaces, twitches myoclonically)
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
My prediction is a Green win, with Reform second and large amount of tactical voting by Labour (and other party) voters. It's just possible that Labour, having all the previous voting data, could hold on and it's also possible that Labour/Greens get roughly the same and Reform comes through to win on a small percentage. However I'm sticking with a Green win and the lesson being that anti-Reform voting will be a major factor in future elections IF the main challenger is easy to identify.
Labour. By a whisker.
Followed by massive row about postal ballots.
Hodges says it is pouring down in Manchester this morning.
Hodges is exaggerating. Light to persistent rain at most.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
My late sister had a DNR notice and I was called to her nursing home as they had called an ambulance
She was clearly in her final hours but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital
I told them about the DNR and they said it was my decision to make
I felt I had no choice but to agree and she died in hospital 5 hours later
I was told I would be interviewed by the police and needed to formally identify the body
The police interview was staightforward, but I could not get away from my decision as it would have been better she had passed in the nursing home with her family present
USS Faeces Everywhere has left Crete and is en route to the coast off Israel. Probably the last piece in the jigsaw. Activity at Diego Garcia ramping up
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
All the lefties have joined the Greens surely?
We tend to ignore YP because of their amateurism and their personalities. But there was a YouGov MRP that showed them getting i) double figure MPs and ii) more MPs than the Greens.
I think the Greens are attracting the soppy-bunny lefties and Muslim activists, but YP are attracting the hard-bastard Marxists/Trotskyists and Islamists, and the latter can win at constituency level.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
It really is a three way by election, I don't think I can remember a by election before where any of 3 parties could win it.
Turnout will be key and who had the best postal vote operation and Labour and the Greens will be battling to present themselves as the main alternative to Reform and Reform could still win if the left of centre vote is near split down the middle
I would say that postals will be the deciding factor in such a close race. I've seen several elections where a front runner on the boxes has been pushed back into second once the postals have been added. In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately. However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
Your point about postals is the first genuinely mechanical explanation I’ve seen today. Postals are often decisive in tight races, and there’s a new wrinkle: under Elections Act changes, postal voters now have to reapply every 3 years, with the first cohort needing to reapply by 31 Jan 2026 or lose their postal vote.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
While on the subject of postals, the electoral services operation in big elections will start opening and processing the postal votes before polls have closed - even a day or so before. Party election agents are entitled to attend and observe, so I would watch out for sudden shifts in the betting markets. Something like this happened with a Labour candidate a few general elections back - can't remember the circumstances and I don't think betting was involved. But there was a row at the time about breaking the voting secrecy laws.
It's known as "postal vote sampling". In theory it shouldn't happen: the votes are opened and verified with the votes downwards (so not visible) and disclosure is illegal. But agents can tell the size of a pile and the wards they are from and draw the conclusions. IIRC the Scottish Conservative then-leader Ruth Davidson said they were confident of victory in an election (I can't remember which one) due to postal vote sampling and then row happened.
Yes. Agents are allowed to observe and draw any conclusions they want. They cannot tell anyone of their observations/thoughts until the election is over. Disclosure of non-personal information after the election is over is fine.
I did it once, as a student in my first GE in 1987, in Durham. The expectation there was that Labour would get 90% of the vote in the postals, because they were overwhelmingly from old people's homes, staffed almost entirely by Labour supporters, and the anecdote was that they would 'help' the residents complete their votes. This is a long time ago now and I can't remember whether the votes were verified on the day or the day before (I think the latter as I remember being busy with Good Morning leaflets and then doing telling duty). I do remember that the counting agents were very careful not to accidentally reveal the ballot paper; I got a glimpse of one or two and they were indeed Labour.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
It might be an idea for The To ries, Lib Dems, Labour Party to make a legal claim of false representation against The Green Party.
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
Starmer has done something similar in Labour. He turned it from a party that meant things to a party that said things, disconnecting words from actions and actions from values. Polanski is the child of Starmer, filling the gap he created.
It concerns me quite a bit that the words I was expecting to hear from SKS immediately after the GE - 'it will be difficult, it will be painful, but it can be done' - are now being spoken by Rupert Lowe.
Starmer has saved Labour from a commie and taken it back to the centre left.
If you think being Reform-lite and anti-environment is centre-left....
My prediction is a Green win, with Reform second and large amount of tactical voting by Labour (and other party) voters. It's just possible that Labour, having all the previous voting data, could hold on and it's also possible that Labour/Greens get roughly the same and Reform comes through to win on a small percentage. However I'm sticking with a Green win and the lesson being that anti-Reform voting will be a major factor in future elections IF the main challenger is easy to identify.
Labour. By a whisker.
Followed by massive row about postal ballots.
Hodges says it is pouring down in Manchester this morning.
Hodges is exaggerating. Light to persistent rain at most.
A person from the northwest and a London journalist have very different ideas of the heaviness of rain! And if folk from the northwest let rain prevent them from going out and doing things they'd never go out or do anything at all.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
My late sister had a DNR notice and I was called to her nursing home as they had called an ambulance
She was clearly in her final hours but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital
I told them about the DNR and they said it was my decision to make
I felt I had no choice but to agree and she died in hospital 5 hours later
I was told I would be interviewed by the police and needed to formally identify the body
The police interview was staightforward, but I could not get away from my decision as it would have been better she had passed in the nursing home with her family present
Why is it your decision if she has set up a DNR notice?
Meanwhile the government has come out with the Impact Assessment for its proposals for severely limiting trial by jury, proposals for which it has no mandate whatsoever and which it wants to push through in double quick time before the May local elections, with the minimum of scrutiny and no consultation. It is also proposing applying this law retrospectively.
It helpfully describes the overarching policy objectives of this proposal -
"Overarching Policy Objectives • The overall policy objectives of the measures outlined in this IA are: • To address the existing backlog of outstanding cases in the Crown Court and to turn the tide on the rising open caseload so that it is on a downward trend by the end of this Parliament; • To improve timeliness in access to justice for victims, witnesses and defendants; by • ensuring a more proportionate allocation of resources across the criminal courts, in line with the severity and complexity of cases; and • To place the criminal courts on a more sustainable footing."
Note what is missing - the right to a fair trial.
You cannot hate Labour enough.
14 years of mismanagement Selling off Courts Closing Prisons Covid
A backlog that fundamentally impacts worst on victims, which risks the breakdown of the criminal justice system
Your proposal is exactly what?
Do nothing?
Blame the accused Blame 14 years of cuts Blame Covid Blame the system
To blame someone actually trying to sort the fecking mess out is cheap and lazy.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
You will keep throwing the lefties out of Labour, until all you are left with are hollowed-out etiolated middle-class elite centrists, and the Conservatives will eat you alive because that's not enough for a coalition. It's not 1998 any more.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Surprised they are still bothering with any of this.
All the lefties have joined the Greens surely?
The current Greens may be a bit too left wing for some of them.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Hopefully every Lord gets turfed out one day, the Commons voted for this and the undemocratic, unelected arses who can't accept others deciding their own destiny have no place being in our Parliament.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
My wife and I are certainly well into that group !!!!!!!
Us too. We will be fascinated to see how it pans out.
And us; I'm considering setting a Do Not Resuscitate entry of the local surgery's medical notes. The GP isn't too keen!
My late sister had a DNR notice and I was called to her nursing home as they had called an ambulance
She was clearly in her final hours but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital
I told them about the DNR and they said it was my decision to make
I felt I had no choice but to agree and she died in hospital 5 hours later
I was told I would be interviewed by the police and needed to formally identify the body
The police interview was staightforward, but I could not get away from my decision as it would have been better she had passed in the nursing home with her family present
Very unpleasant; every sympathy. It's what I'm afraid of. I don't want my wife having to follow the ambulance to hospital.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Of course if the Lords stop playing silly games, after all they've had a huge amount of silly game time it may pass in the House of Commons.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
It is not as simple as that
It could be brought back but is unlikely
The government could bring it back but as it is not a manifesto commitment using the parliament act would make it controversial
Abolishing the lords will not save the act, but apparently even if it comes back it will not come into force before the next GE and which party wants a fight on this in an election
It is over for many years to come
Understood.
May be every Party should consider a manifesto commitment to put it up for debate and amendment for a binding free non whip vote at the next GE.
It is a topic that transcends Party Politics but the public in my opinion deserve a Commons Vote to decide the option or not.
I would declare I'm in favour My Partner is against My sister and husband a retired Dean are against
Comments
It's been highjacked by what can only be called Communists or Ultra Socialists.
It's policies since Comrade Polanski took over bear little or no mention of Ecology, Environment or a boa fide Green Agenda.
The guy has got some absolute balls and brass neck, he's singlehandedly walked in, taken over and hijacked a political Party in plain sight.
The Trump take over of the Republican Party pales in to insignificance.
A social worker, told my ex, to her face, that “it would have been better if the child hadn’t been born”.
Farages vehicles dont tend to pass MOT more than once (but he might buy another car)
*interested to hear the failure mode, if not - unless it's some member of the local plod smacking an idiot tourist off the bike before water entry
It’s far from a majority world-view, and is rather unfashionable in social media circles to say the least, but is nonetheless one side of the biggest global political cleavage of the era.
Labour could have taken that mantle but they’ve blown it on unpopular fiscal tinkering, sub-Farage nods to populism, and Mandelson. So could the Tories, but they’re not even attempting to go there.
(Actually I'd have MBS as number 1 and probably a few others from other countries in high spots, depending how we define 'royal'
A fair rule of thumb, is that something that has happened once, in day to day operations has happened many times.
As a noted submariner once said, diving is easy. Surfacing is the sign of skill.
I think the potential for a collapse of Reform is that Nigel Farage will be 70 in 2034. He keeps on walking away from politics when it doesn't seem like so much fun. So I could foresee a scenario where Farage walks away after failing to win the 2029 GE and Reform descend into the infighting that beset UKIP after Farage walked away from them in 2016.
You could make some counter-arguments to this. Perhaps Farage would find being Leader of the Opposition sufficiently entertaining to stick around. Plus it gets him appointed to the Privy Council - the sort of establishment recognition I think he craves. And Winston Churchill was 76 when he became PM for the second time, so 70 isn't perhaps all that old.
Just imagine the pressures in a hospital ward, with long term elderly “blocking the beds”.
Or he could fanny about as the MP for Clacton, hating that job - as he sees the millions drain through the timer.
In G&D I suspect the postal advantage would be with Labour who have been working the patch long term and know where their supporters are. You really need to get to these people two weeks before poll day, when the postal ballots land on the doorstep and with most recipients voting and returning immediately.
However the new rule about reapplying for a postal vote after three years has just come in, so it would be interesting to know if Labour got on top of this and made sure their long term supporters had signed up again
I foresee someone taking early retirement after going sick with stress.
Screaming Lord Such would be preferable.
1) I don't think it's necessarily a terribly popular one - 'more' rules always seems more popular than 'fewer'
2) I'm not convinced all Lib Dem MPs are fully bought into old-fashioned liberalism - there is a distinct strain more at home with what they call liberalism in the USA, which I would classify as simply not-conservatism
3) My personal view is that the Lib Dem enthusiasm for all things European, which to me is a) not a particularly liberal institution (it much prefers more rules to fewer) and b) is in any case nowadays increasingly dominated by illiberal voices.
Still, I do buy into your view that there is an important voice which needs articulating here and that the LDs are better placed than any to do it.
I sincerely hope they've given a bit of thought to this, rather than just assuming it's safely in the long grass.
With my father, the resistance to getting him on a drip was... interesting.
As was the hilarious reaction to the letter that got sent to the head of the trust.
Whether it passes or not is a choice for public opinion and their elected representatives.
There is no whip, it would be a free vote. That is right and ethical.
It is cinstitutionalky wrong in my opinion for a few Lords to hold this up as they have.
What Starmer should do in my opinion is tell them that unless they allow it to pass back to the Commons that he will bring an immediate Bill to Abolish the Lords.
For G&D the deadline for new postal applications was 11 Feb. (see here)
So if Labour assumed “we’ve got postals sewn up”, but didn’t actively chase renewals, that advantage could have quietly leaked away. In a race where 1–2% is the margin, that’s the sort of dull admin detail that wins or loses it.
1) Look shocked
2) Scratch her chin
3) Suck teeth
4) "It'll cost you"
??!!???
There are standards, you know.
Labour will have all of their 2024 but Reform and Greens both polled double figure percentages so they should have data, although it might be on a fag packet and recyclable notepad respectively
Though, on the upside, attempting to abolish the Lords would give him another opportunity to do a 180. Followed by a 360. Followed by a 540.
I can only imagine the hurt on Charles Dance's face.
Something like this happened with a Labour candidate a few general elections back - can't remember the circumstances and I don't think betting was involved. But there was a row at the time about breaking the voting secrecy laws.
https://x.com/RoworthJack/status/2026968242812506283
It could be brought back but is unlikely
The government could bring it back but as it is not a manifesto commitment using the parliament act would make it controversial
Abolishing the lords will not save the act, but apparently even if it comes back it will not come into force before the next GE and which party wants a fight on this in an election
It is over for many years to come
I would be very proud if my daughter was a qualified plumber with great career propects and a guaranteed job for life
We need many more plumbers and a lot less politicians
It helpfully describes the overarching policy objectives of this proposal -
"Overarching Policy Objectives
• The overall policy objectives of the measures outlined in this IA are:
• To address the existing backlog of outstanding cases in the Crown Court and to turn
the tide on the rising open caseload so that it is on a downward trend by the end of
this Parliament;
• To improve timeliness in access to justice for victims, witnesses and defendants; by
• ensuring a more proportionate allocation of resources across the criminal courts, in
line with the severity and complexity of cases; and
• To place the criminal courts on a more sustainable footing."
Note what is missing - the right to a fair trial.
You cannot hate Labour enough.
I'd have the floor at about 25% and the ceiling at 40%
Personally I'd edge closer to 30/low 30s.
BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘The Many’ slate wins Your Party internal elections, meaning he is set to be elected parliamentary leader by new central exec committee.
The Corbyn slate won 14 seats to seven for the Grassroots Left, Zarah Sultana’s outfit, alongside 3 independents.
ETA Conservatives closing half the courts since 2010 probably did not help.
Followed by massive row about postal ballots.
Hodges says it is pouring down in Manchester this morning.
Obviously the seat has been canvassed to death by all parties in the last couple of months, but that doesn't change anything.
All the lefties have joined the Greens surely?
She was clearly in her final hours but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital
I told them about the DNR and they said it was my decision to make
I felt I had no choice but to agree and she died in hospital 5 hours later
I was told I would be interviewed by the police and needed to formally identify the body
The police interview was staightforward, but I could not get away from my decision as it would have been better she had passed in the nursing home with her family present
Activity at Diego Garcia ramping up
I think the Greens are attracting the soppy-bunny lefties and Muslim activists, but YP are attracting the hard-bastard Marxists/Trotskyists and Islamists, and the latter can win at constituency level.
Can you take
McDonnnell
Abbot
Burgon
Long-Bailey
Dangerfield
Maskell
Duncan-Jordan
Butler
Lewis
Whittome
Russell-Moyle
Ribiero-Addy
With you and do us all a favour
By Elections would be acc
And if folk from the northwest let rain prevent them from going out and doing things they'd never go out or do anything at all.
Selling off Courts
Closing Prisons
Covid
A backlog that fundamentally impacts worst on victims, which risks the breakdown of the criminal justice system
Your proposal is exactly what?
Do nothing?
Blame the accused
Blame 14 years of cuts
Blame Covid
Blame the system
To blame someone actually trying to sort the fecking mess out is cheap and lazy.
Hopefully every Lord gets turfed out one day, the Commons voted for this and the undemocratic, unelected arses who can't accept others deciding their own destiny have no place being in our Parliament.
May be every Party should consider a manifesto commitment to put it up for debate and amendment for a binding free non whip vote at the next GE.
It is a topic that transcends Party Politics but the public in my opinion deserve a Commons Vote to decide the option or not.
I would declare I'm in favour
My Partner is against
My sister and husband a retired Dean are against
Standby for the breaking news when the Greens get out of bed.