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The influence of Political betting is causing problems in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,968
edited February 25 in General
The influence of Political betting is causing problems in Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com

When I first became deputy editor of Political Betting despite knowing the then Prime Minister was a regular reader of PB one thing that shocked me was that how many people in the Westminster village just assumed the betting markets was were the smart money was.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    edited February 25
    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,057
    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Yep - Reform's cover is 'common sense' and a return to a vision of the country of the past. Underneath lies racism and hatred of the other. Green's cover is caring for the world, climate and the future but underneath is communism/hard left.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Indeed. They are not the Ramsay/Chowns Ecology Party types any more.
    Which does mean they might disintegrate in Waveney and Herefordshire just as they storm the cities
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,322
    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Cosy not cost. fFS. Predictive text.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,718
    I still think that a reasonable number of potential Labour supporters will vote tactically for the Greens as the best way to stop Reform. But we shall soon see. Does anyone know if there is an overnight count?
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Indeed. They are not the Ramsay/Chowns Ecology Party types any more.
    Which does mean they might disintegrate in Waveney and Herefordshire just as they storm the cities
    Yes,,that’s something I’ve pondered on too. The balancing act has definitely skewed towards the hard left side.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,759
    The remark in the article https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-greens-clash-betting-influence-manchester-byelection-campaign refers to a "small number of large bets". Is this true and if so where does this data come from?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,028
    DavidL said:

    I still think that a reasonable number of potential Labour supporters will vote tactically for the Greens as the best way to stop Reform. But we shall soon see. Does anyone know if there is an overnight count?

    Yes they’ll be counting into the early hours .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    edited February 25
    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,759
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I personally Badenoch...

    Lots of people Badenoch. I hope that they do it in their own rooms and wash afterwards, but people these days are weird.
  • wembleytorwembleytor Posts: 25
    Linked article says a £90,000 bet was made on the Greens earlier this month, citing HuffPo, but the HuffPo piece says £90,000 was wagered on the candidate, which suggests a cumulative total to me. Not sure the Green Party is awash with supporters able to drop £90k on a PR bet in any case!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,598
    A reminder, if you're watching Sky please do not read anything into Jon Craig's musings - he just tends to regurgitate the received wisdom (Could be a bad night for Labour) prior to the count.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Indeed. They are not the Ramsay/Chowns Ecology Party types any more.
    Which does mean they might disintegrate in Waveney and Herefordshire just as they storm the cities
    Yes,,that’s something I’ve pondered on too. The balancing act has definitely skewed towards the hard left side.
    They defend 9 seats on Suffolk council in May, we may get a hint then
    Their Norfolk contigent are city wards mainly in Clive Lewis's patch and much more in tune with Polanskiism (until recently my patch)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,647
    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Which Lib Dem simpletons did you have in mind ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Pulpstar said:

    A reminder, if you're watching Sky please do not read anything into Jon Craig's musings - he just tends to regurgitate the received wisdom (Could be a bad night for Labour) prior to the count.

    Long faces and rumours of long faces
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,322
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
    Labour in particular has been canvassing hard all campaign
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,508
    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,112
    So who knows the imam?

    Because whoever he says should be the winner, is going to be the winner.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,348
    TSE is right that the betting markets aren’t always a good guide.

    The assumption now is that Labour simply must lose the by-election, given their myriad travails.

    Thus, betters expecting a right-wing victory have piled in on Reform, and those expecting a left-wing counter-reaction have piled in on the Greens. So the current odds for first and second place on BFE clearly consign Labour to an expected third place. The value bet is probably in backing Labour for both first and second, assuming that even if they get beaten it won’t be into third.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,348
    DavidL said:

    I still think that a reasonable number of potential Labour supporters will vote tactically for the Greens as the best way to stop Reform. But we shall soon see. Does anyone know if there is an overnight count?

    Yes, result expected between 2-3 am unless there’s a recount
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,292
    Light to moderate rain forecast for G&D from early afternoon throughout the evening. Might depress GOTV on the day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,348
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
    Labour in particular has been canvassing hard all campaign
    Labour canvassing techniques, however, tend to be broad front but not particularly sophisticated. Akin to throwing waves of poorly armed troops into a losing position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,348
    sarissa said:

    Light to moderate rain forecast for G&D from early afternoon throughout the evening. Might depress GOTV on the day.

    Hello, you time traveller from the 1970s, when only Tory voters had cars.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,504
    edited February 25
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    You're only a grass if you're doing the crime too.

    (The UK is very weird for this. In grown-up countries reporting people who break the law, and therefore averting the need for a police/surveillance state, is a good thing)
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    IanB2 said:

    sarissa said:

    Light to moderate rain forecast for G&D from early afternoon throughout the evening. Might depress GOTV on the day.

    Hello, you time traveller from the 1970s, when only Tory voters had cars.
    Postal votes gain more impact.

    Tice getting his excuses in already.

    Greens only have crayons not black biro
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,762
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    How many political scalps will Mandelson claim on his way down?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
    Labour in particular has been canvassing hard all campaign
    Labour canvassing techniques, however, tend to be broad front but not particularly sophisticated. Akin to throwing waves of poorly armed troops into a losing position.
    The one positive legacy Morgan McSweeney left was a massively improved digitally enable Ground Force.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
    Labour in particular has been canvassing hard all campaign
    Labour canvassing techniques, however, tend to be broad front but not particularly sophisticated. Akin to throwing waves of poorly armed troops into a losing position.
    The one positive legacy Morgan McSweeney left was a massively improved digitally enable Ground Force.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032
    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    I think they know that! I don't see Labour treating the Greens as fluffy in Gorton & Denton. My council seat is a Labour/Green battleground and will be hotly fought.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    wooliedyed said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A reminder, if you're watching Sky please do not read anything into Jon Craig's musings - he just tends to regurgitate the received wisdom (Could be a bad night for Labour) prior to the count.

    Long faces and rumours of long faces
    His hustings performances at GE 2024 were comedy gold.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Chagos deal paused is confirmed
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    Simply the best name of any Soccer player ever

    https://x.com/dag_redfc/status/2026366516313424366?s=61
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think that a reasonable number of potential Labour supporters will vote tactically for the Greens as the best way to stop Reform. But we shall soon see. Does anyone know if there is an overnight count?

    Yes, result expected between 2-3 am unless there’s a recount
    Feck the count.

    Just watch Farages Car.

    I'm sure TV and Journos will.

    It'll park up at a pub, the minute it heads for the Motorway you know Reform have lost.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    wembleytor said:

    Linked article says a £90,000 bet was made on the Greens earlier this month, citing HuffPo, but the HuffPo piece says £90,000 was wagered on the candidate, which suggests a cumulative total to me. Not sure the Green Party is awash with supporters able to drop £90k on a PR bet in any case!

    Candy man
    Candy man ca cause candy man can

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,028
    Bad weather on election day and the effect on voter turnout tends to affect those more occasional voters especially younger people .

    The Greens really don’t want lashing rain tomorrow.
  • wembleytorwembleytor Posts: 25
    sarissa said:

    Light to moderate rain forecast for G&D from early afternoon throughout the evening. Might depress GOTV on the day.

    What we in Manchester would call "a nice day". More seriously, better weather in the morning, when pensioners are more likely to be the ones voting, is a minor boost to Reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,322
    nico67 said:

    Bad weather on election day and the effect on voter turnout tends to affect those more occasional voters especially younger people .

    The Greens really don’t want lashing rain tomorrow.

    Indeed, SKS should be doing a rain dance tonight
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,728
    edited February 25
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    Can't stand Hoyle or Mandelson but you just know if Labour were still in 'protect our Peter' mode Sir Lindsay would be pulliing out all the stops to run cover for them. Him grassing Mandelson up is probably the clearest sign that Labour are going to hang Petie out to dry with alacrity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,322
    wembleytor said:

    sarissa said:

    Light to moderate rain forecast for G&D from early afternoon throughout the evening. Might depress GOTV on the day.

    What we in Manchester would call "a nice day". More seriously, better weather in the morning, when pensioners are more likely to be the ones voting, is a minor boost to Reform.
    Though the Omnisis poll had Labour leading with over 75s in Gorton and Denton, even if Reform led with 50 to 75s so that could be good news for both.

    Bad news for the Greens though as while they led with under 50s they were under 10% with over 75s
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,743
    The Labour bar chart was so spectacularly crooked that you have to ask if they hired a LibDem to make it
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,151
    IanB2 said:

    TSE is right that the betting markets aren’t always a good guide.

    The assumption now is that Labour simply must lose the by-election, given their myriad travails.

    Thus, betters expecting a right-wing victory have piled in on Reform, and those expecting a left-wing counter-reaction have piled in on the Greens. So the current odds for first and second place on BFE clearly consign Labour to an expected third place. The value bet is probably in backing Labour for both first and second, assuming that even if they get beaten it won’t be into third.

    I’m very sure Green and Reform get votes not for their platform, love of or even awareness of it, but as seen as the dissatisfaction with government protest vote, that kicks Labour by winning the seat, so in this sense they are fighting each other for the same voters.

    A vote for Green or Reform does not bring any of their policies into the community, that explains difference between by elections and general down the years, even by elections won on huge swings in election year going home at the GE. Having said that, I also think the Reform candidate has been a drag on what they could have got.

    So putting Labour Green together as “left parties” letting Reform through the middle is a poor analysis, whereas Reform and Green letting Labour come and win through middle, against protest votes, is stronger analysis. Labour and Green don’t share much policy or approach right now.

    Labour cannot win this by election, even if they narrowly win it on small majority - the huge amount of protest votes against Labour is the only rightful news narrative from a Labour win.

    Labour will be distant third based on journalist visits I’ve been following across the media.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,151
    edited February 25
    IanB2 said:

    TSE is right that the betting markets aren’t always a good guide.

    The assumption now is that Labour simply must lose the by-election, given their myriad travails.

    Thus, betters expecting a right-wing victory have piled in on Reform, and those expecting a left-wing counter-reaction have piled in on the Greens. So the current odds for first and second place on BFE clearly consign Labour to an expected third place. The value bet is probably in backing Labour for both first and second, assuming that even if they get beaten it won’t be into third.

    deleted. double yoke.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032
    RochdalePioneers said:

    The Labour bar chart was so spectacularly crooked that you have to ask if they hired a LibDem to make it

    Seeing it would be enough to make me vote Green in protest!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,538
    Theuniondivvie said:

    The eternal cri du jambon, why can't the Greens go back to a single issue party polling on a single digit number with a single MP, and having virtually no effect on that issue. Leave the important stuff to the grown up parties with their distinguished record of not fucking that stuff up.

    They could at least pay lip service to the environment, in between the SWP claptrap.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Jobber O'Brien is super cross With Kemi and the pedo protectors comment
    I dont think you will find the electorate are
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,151
    RochdalePioneers said:

    The Labour bar chart was so spectacularly crooked that you have to ask if they hired a LibDem to make it

    Shall we do that?

    - hello Dale. Wuz you approached to make it?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,538
    bondegezou said:

    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    I think they know that! I don't see Labour treating the Greens as fluffy in Gorton & Denton. My council seat is a Labour/Green battleground and will be hotly fought.
    Some of my comrades floated the idea of a non-aggression pact with the Greens between two neighbouring wards. I politely disagreed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,538
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Greens are now the favourites in the betting markets and the polls. Though Labour have a better GOTV and canvass data operation I suspect and more postal votes in the bag most likely and Reform could also win with a split left of centre vote

    I suspect that like in most rock-solid seats, the canvass data is patchy at best. Since when has there been a need here to GOTV? Not until this by-election.
    Labour in particular has been canvassing hard all campaign
    Labour canvassing techniques, however, tend to be broad front but not particularly sophisticated. Akin to throwing waves of poorly armed troops into a losing position.
    A timely reminder the the purpose of canvassing is not to persuade people to vote for you, it is to figure out who intends to vote for you. This then feeds into the "knocking up" activity on polling day to maximise turnout of the right people.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,538
    wooliedyed said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A reminder, if you're watching Sky please do not read anything into Jon Craig's musings - he just tends to regurgitate the received wisdom (Could be a bad night for Labour) prior to the count.

    Long faces and rumours of long faces
    It's a three-horse race.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,692
    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    You're only a grass if you're doing the crime too.

    (The UK is very weird for this. In grown-up countries reporting people who break the law, and therefore averting the need for a police/surveillance state, is a good thing)
    'Turning Queen's evidence' is so much more elegant. (King's evidence is just a much an expression, but 'Queen's' feels commoner, perhaps a tribute to the length and criminal culture of the reigns of Victoria and QEII.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,759
    Taz said:

    Simply the best name of any Soccer player ever

    https://x.com/dag_redfc/status/2026366516313424366?s=61

    The Shamen - Ebeneezer Goode (1992): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFJdUJg4wOk
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,322
    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    Reform scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    ‘ 🔶 A former Lib Dem councillor in #WestOxfordshire who got suspended (and subsequently thrown out of the party) after complaints from her colleagues about her conduct has now gone over to Reform UK. Is there anyone Reform won’t accept… 🤷‍♂️


    https://x.com/_liamwalker_/status/2026418792016802018?s=61
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    With canvassing, i wonder how much work was done after 2019? I think the example was the loss of Bolsover,? Labour didnt have a clue where to knock up etc due to taking it for granted
    Has their canvassing improved in 'safe' seats since? Is tgeir data up to date? If not they could not even realuse they are getting creamed
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032
    SandyRentool said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    The eternal cri du jambon, why can't the Greens go back to a single issue party polling on a single digit number with a single MP, and having virtually no effect on that issue. Leave the important stuff to the grown up parties with their distinguished record of not fucking that stuff up.

    They could at least pay lip service to the environment, in between the SWP claptrap.
    The Gorton & Denton messaging seems to be almost entirely "only the Greens can stop Reform" and "Hannah Spencer is a local plumber". However, plenty of Green campaigning in forthcoming local elections does still talk about the environment: see https://electionleaflets.org/parties/party:63/green-party
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Simply the best name of any Soccer player ever

    https://x.com/dag_redfc/status/2026366516313424366?s=61

    The Shamen - Ebeneezer Goode (1992): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFJdUJg4wOk
    Anyone got any Vera’s ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,692
    Taz said:

    Simply the best name of any Soccer player ever

    https://x.com/dag_redfc/status/2026366516313424366?s=61

    Up there with Snorri Snorrason, an Iceland midfielder.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032
    wooliedyed said:

    With canvassing, i wonder how much work was done after 2019? I think the example was the loss of Bolsover,? Labour didnt have a clue where to knock up etc due to taking it for granted
    Has their canvassing improved in 'safe' seats since? Is tgeir data up to date? If not they could not even realuse they are getting creamed

    Even if the Westminster seat has been in safe, the local council seats in G&D have not all been IIRC, so they will have been canvassing those.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,647
    Taz said:

    Reform scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    ‘ 🔶 A former Lib Dem councillor in #WestOxfordshire who got suspended (and subsequently thrown out of the party) after complaints from her colleagues about her conduct has now gone over to Reform UK. Is there anyone Reform won’t accept… 🤷‍♂️


    https://x.com/_liamwalker_/status/2026418792016802018?s=61

    So that's why they're called Reform.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_school
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,464
    edited February 25
    The oldies, who always vote, tend to be Labour round there.
    We are turning into Germany, with the 65+ voting legacy Parties, 50-65 further to the right and the young Green.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    rottenborough said:

    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942

    Either that or Farage is about to defect to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    Simply the best name of any Soccer player ever

    https://x.com/dag_redfc/status/2026366516313424366?s=61

    Up there with Snorri Snorrason, an Iceland midfielder.

    That's what I call my alarm clock.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,759
    Season 5 trailer for "For All Mankind" is up. It's 2012 in the show's timeline and a war of independence is brewing between Mars and Earth. Will it turn into a prequel to "The Expanse" or "Star Trek"? Let's find out...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zojwKLlY_H8
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,647
    Role of Scotland’s top law officer questioned after ‘bombshell’ over Peter Murrell charges
    Lord advocate Dorothy Bain informed first minister of embezzlement charges against former SNP chief executive a year before they were made public
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/25/role-scotland-top-law-officer-dorothy-bain-questioned-peter-murrell-charges
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    bondegezou said:

    wooliedyed said:

    With canvassing, i wonder how much work was done after 2019? I think the example was the loss of Bolsover,? Labour didnt have a clue where to knock up etc due to taking it for granted
    Has their canvassing improved in 'safe' seats since? Is tgeir data up to date? If not they could not even realuse they are getting creamed

    Even if the Westminster seat has been in safe, the local council seats in G&D have not all been IIRC, so they will have been canvassing those.
    Thanks. The Tories suffered similarly in 2024. Hopefully theyve learned from the Hunt defence
    I know theyve been running stuff with councillors on how to beat Reform
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942

    Either that or Farage is about to defect to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,508
    edited February 25
    viewcode said:

    Season 5 trailer for "For All Mankind" is up. It's 2012 in the show's timeline and a war of independence is brewing between Mars and Earth. Will it turn into a prequel to "The Expanse" or "Star Trek"? Let's find out...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zojwKLlY_H8

    Babylon 5.

    We know how pivotal Mars declaring independence from the Earth Alliance was.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    MoonRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    TSE is right that the betting markets aren’t always a good guide.

    The assumption now is that Labour simply must lose the by-election, given their myriad travails.

    Thus, betters expecting a right-wing victory have piled in on Reform, and those expecting a left-wing counter-reaction have piled in on the Greens. So the current odds for first and second place on BFE clearly consign Labour to an expected third place. The value bet is probably in backing Labour for both first and second, assuming that even if they get beaten it won’t be into third.

    I’m very sure Green and Reform get votes not for their platform, love of or even awareness of it, but as seen as the dissatisfaction with government protest vote, that kicks Labour by winning the seat, so in this sense they are fighting each other for the same voters.

    A vote for Green or Reform does not bring any of their policies into the community, that explains difference between by elections and general down the years, even by elections won on huge swings in election year going home at the GE. Having said that, I also think the Reform candidate has been a drag on what they could have got.

    So putting Labour Green together as “left parties” letting Reform through the middle is a poor analysis, whereas Reform and Green letting Labour come and win through middle, against protest votes, is stronger analysis. Labour and Green don’t share much policy or approach right now.

    Labour cannot win this by election, even if they narrowly win it on small majority - the huge amount of protest votes against Labour is the only rightful news narrative from a Labour win.

    Labour will be distant third based on journalist visits I’ve been following across the media.
    Labour a distant third means virtually no Labour MP is safe - under current management.

    Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio (for our Brummie Zulu warrior friend...)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,538
    bondegezou said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    The eternal cri du jambon, why can't the Greens go back to a single issue party polling on a single digit number with a single MP, and having virtually no effect on that issue. Leave the important stuff to the grown up parties with their distinguished record of not fucking that stuff up.

    They could at least pay lip service to the environment, in between the SWP claptrap.
    The Gorton & Denton messaging seems to be almost entirely "only the Greens can stop Reform" and "Hannah Spencer is a local plumber". However, plenty of Green campaigning in forthcoming local elections does still talk about the environment: see https://electionleaflets.org/parties/party:63/green-party
    They'll be purged soon enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    wooliedyed said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942

    Either that or Farage is about to defect to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!
    Memo to self: buy popcorn futures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,759
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    Season 5 trailer for "For All Mankind" is up. It's 2012 in the show's timeline and a war of independence is brewing between Mars and Earth. Will it turn into a prequel to "The Expanse" or "Star Trek"? Let's find out...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zojwKLlY_H8

    Babylon 5.

    We know how pivotal Mars declaring independence from the Earth Alliance was.
    Pause

    Pause

    Dammit, I never thought of that!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,134
    wooliedyed said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942

    Either that or Farage is about to defect to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!
    Across the entire galaxy, not a single world was left unchanged...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,940
    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    You're only a grass if you're doing the crime too.

    (The UK is very weird for this. In grown-up countries reporting people who break the law, and therefore averting the need for a police/surveillance state, is a good thing)
    I've never really understood the 'grass' thing, but always assumed it had something to do with turf wars...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,564
    wooliedyed said:

    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!

    Can they both lose?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,954
    dixiedean said:

    The oldies, who always vote, tend to be Labour round there.
    We are turning into Germany, with the 65+ voting legacy Parties, 50-65 further to the right and the young Green.

    It was ever thus. ISTR in the 1980s, the Libs got the largest chunk of their votes from the very old, in the heads of whom they were still one of the big two parties.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,508
    I see we have another Met cock up.

    Met apologises to Commons speaker for sharing tip-off with Mandelson’s lawyers

    Exclusive: Lindsay Hoyle told MPs he had shared information ex-US ambassador planned to flee UK with police ‘in good faith’

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/25/commons-speaker-says-he-passed-information-to-met-that-peter-mandelson-planned-to-flee-uk
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    Scott_xP said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!

    Can they both lose?
    Oh yes,,certainly.
    And often do
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I see we have another Met cock up.

    Met apologises to Commons speaker for sharing tip-off with Mandelson’s lawyers

    Exclusive: Lindsay Hoyle told MPs he had shared information ex-US ambassador planned to flee UK with police ‘in good faith’

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/25/commons-speaker-says-he-passed-information-to-met-that-peter-mandelson-planned-to-flee-uk

    Oh no, how inadvertent. What an unfortunate error.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,508
    Scott_xP said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!

    Can they both lose?
    No, Jenrick is a Cambridge educated lawyer, he’s going to win.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,873
    edited February 25
    For fans of niche stats to crunch, on More in Commons February tables theres some work done for Prosper on the missing Tories.
    Its broken down constituency by constituency (from MRP data) by 'have ever voted Con' 'still voting Con' 'was Con now Lab/LD/Grn' 'was Con now Ref' 'was Con now not sure or WNV'
    Now of course not accurate to any nth degree but scanning for places where 'still con' is a reasonable figure and higher than both 'now lab etc' AND 'now ref' gives a flavour of ehere Con might be doing better.
    Ill let anyone interested go look but some thoughts - London looks reasonable for some Tory advances, rural Yorkshire and the home counties broker belt still look pretty good etc etc
    One nugget - i can see why Kruger ran a mile from a by election!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,151
    wooliedyed said:

    Chagos deal paused is confirmed

    🫩

    Conveniently parked till May, certainly. But https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5lqd4g338o

    this deal sails through the Commons 19:21 on May 19th 2026.

    And then that’s it, the end of UK ownership. From there on it’s India, US and Mauritius to handle political stunts, International Court “gaming” - and other nonsense from Russia, China, and Nigel Farage 🤣
    anything in Conservative Party manifesto about changing the agreement, scrapping the agreement, will be just just pie in the sky - because Mauritius and India won’t negotiate.

    After a near 65 year entanglement, UK have a way out.

    Chagos Chagos Chagos - The End.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,564
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!

    Can they both lose?
    No, Jenrick is a Cambridge educated lawyer, he’s going to win.
    That's something of a non-sequitur

    Are you positing that he is going to win despite this obvious handicap?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    Scott_xP said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Let the Jenrick Yusuf war erupt!

    Can they both lose?
    Yusuf has the money

    Thats all Nige is interested in.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,575
    I’m continually amazed that PB is fodder for the Westminster Bubble. If this is the case, could I ask the 1922 committee to remove Kemi as she is messing with the odds.
  • wembleytorwembleytor Posts: 25
    bondegezou said:

    wooliedyed said:

    With canvassing, i wonder how much work was done after 2019? I think the example was the loss of Bolsover,? Labour didnt have a clue where to knock up etc due to taking it for granted
    Has their canvassing improved in 'safe' seats since? Is tgeir data up to date? If not they could not even realuse they are getting creamed

    Even if the Westminster seat has been in safe, the local council seats in G&D have not all been IIRC, so they will have been canvassing those.
    They lost Longsight to WPB in 2024 after getting a vote share of 83% in 2023, and seemed very much caught by surprise. Levenshulme was a contest, Labour winning on 37% after benefitting from a split vote between Green and WPB, the other wards in G&D all safe (Burnage 53%, others all 60+). More effort went into defending places like perennial Lib Dem target Didsbury West further south.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    MarqueeMark said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    TSE is right that the betting markets aren’t always a good guide.

    The assumption now is that Labour simply must lose the by-election, given their myriad travails.

    Thus, betters expecting a right-wing victory have piled in on Reform, and those expecting a left-wing counter-reaction have piled in on the Greens. So the current odds for first and second place on BFE clearly consign Labour to an expected third place. The value bet is probably in backing Labour for both first and second, assuming that even if they get beaten it won’t be into third.

    I’m very sure Green and Reform get votes not for their platform, love of or even awareness of it, but as seen as the dissatisfaction with government protest vote, that kicks Labour by winning the seat, so in this sense they are fighting each other for the same voters.

    A vote for Green or Reform does not bring any of their policies into the community, that explains difference between by elections and general down the years, even by elections won on huge swings in election year going home at the GE. Having said that, I also think the Reform candidate has been a drag on what they could have got.

    So putting Labour Green together as “left parties” letting Reform through the middle is a poor analysis, whereas Reform and Green letting Labour come and win through middle, against protest votes, is stronger analysis. Labour and Green don’t share much policy or approach right now.

    Labour cannot win this by election, even if they narrowly win it on small majority - the huge amount of protest votes against Labour is the only rightful news narrative from a Labour win.

    Labour will be distant third based on journalist visits I’ve been following across the media.
    Labour a distant third means virtually no Labour MP is safe - under current management.

    Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio (for our Brummie Zulu warrior friend...)
    Once you have been visited by the Zulu Army you're never safe.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is Farage betting on the Greens?



    Michelle Burt
    @michburt_burt

    Maybe Farage sees Goodwin as a threat and wants him to lose.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    I'm starting to think that's the only explanation.


    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026639012350537942

    Either that or Farage is about to defect to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
    I did suggest 2 weeks ago that a substantial Reform patron was playing the markets

    Petty cash
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,950
    Selebian said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    You're only a grass if you're doing the crime too.

    (The UK is very weird for this. In grown-up countries reporting people who break the law, and therefore averting the need for a police/surveillance state, is a good thing)
    I've never really understood the 'grass' thing, but always assumed it had something to do with turf wars...
    Wiktionary suggests rhyming slang grasshopper, copper or shopper. Shop from "to sell" presumably
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,151
    MoonRabbit said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Chagos deal paused is confirmed

    🫩

    Conveniently parked till May, certainly. But https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5lqd4g338o

    this deal sails through the Commons 19:21 on May 19th 2026.

    And then that’s it, the end of UK ownership. From there on it’s India, US and Mauritius to handle political stunts, International Court “gaming” - and other nonsense from Russia, China, and Nigel Farage 🤣
    anything in Conservative Party manifesto about changing the agreement, scrapping the agreement, will be just just pie in the sky - because Mauritius and India won’t negotiate.

    After a near 65 year entanglement, UK have a way out.

    Chagos Chagos Chagos - The End.
    Except!

    There’s one other way this Mouse can still Roar.

    Reform making hay on the amount of negotiation and agreement in the final deal, agreed by the Conservatives - clear as day in the Civil Service Minutes from all 11 negotiation sessions and the phone calls and face to face Summit of the PM’s over the years of Boris, Truss and Rishi - before slowing it so Labour PM signed it.

    Conservatives need to hope none of this is “Ship of State, only ship that leaks from the top” during the coming local election campaign.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    wooliedyed said:

    Jobber O'Brien is super cross With Kemi and the pedo protectors comment
    I dont think you will find the electorate are

    Even desperate Dan Hodges who has been damp with excitement with her recently was very terse today about her abject performance
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,995
    This government is a shambles

    1) Children's minister apologies after telling Sky News that foster caring isn't a job

    The children's minister has issued an apology after saying that fostering "isn't work, it isn't a job, it's not employment" in an interview with Sky News.

    The claim caused some backlash on social media.

    Josh McAlister now says the way he expressed himself was "clunky," and he understands "why some foster carers have felt that it didn’t reflect the value or respect they deserve".

    He says care-experienced people have told him that sometimes "they felt the adults caring for them were "doing a job", rather than offering them the sense of family, belonging and commitment they needed".

    "The starting point must always be the child," he adds.

    The minister says that "foster carers do something extraordinary," and that despite the fact fostering is not defined as employment in law "for good reasons," that "should never be used as an excuse for carers being undervalued or under-supported.

    "Respect, trust and proper financial support are essential, and that is exactly what this government is determined to deliver."


    2) What is going on with the Chagos Islands deal?

    There have been reports that the government has paused the ratification of its deal with Mauritius to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, while keeping a 100-year lease on the islands of Diego Garcia, which has a US-UK military base.

    They have emerged because a government minister made some comments on the issue in the House of Commons in the last hour.

    Referencing Donald Trump's attack on the deal last week, Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer told MPs:

    "There clearly has been a statement from the president of the United States more recently, which is very significant.

    "And as I told the House, we are now discussing those concerns with the United States directly.

    "We will we have a process going through parliament in relation to the treaty. We will bring that back to parliament at the appropriate time. We are pausing for discussions with our American counterparts."

    Government sources have told Sky News that the minister misspoke, and we understand that the ratification of the agreement has not been paused.

    We are told that a deadline for the passage of the legislation to formalise the agreement was never set, and timings of its passage through parliament will be set out in due course.

    The process has been proceeding slowly already, given that the UK government has been clear that it needs US support for the deal, which once again has been thrown into doubt.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,003
    Taz said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I see we have another Met cock up.

    Met apologises to Commons speaker for sharing tip-off with Mandelson’s lawyers

    Exclusive: Lindsay Hoyle told MPs he had shared information ex-US ambassador planned to flee UK with police ‘in good faith’

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/25/commons-speaker-says-he-passed-information-to-met-that-peter-mandelson-planned-to-flee-uk

    Oh no, how inadvertent. What an unfortunate error.
    I sense a disturbance in the Farce. As if someone suddenly cried out “I am going off sick with stress, before the disciplinary committee can setup”.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,995
    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Chagos deal paused is confirmed

    🫩

    Conveniently parked till May, certainly. But https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5lqd4g338o

    this deal sails through the Commons 19:21 on May 19th 2026.

    And then that’s it, the end of UK ownership. From there on it’s India, US and Mauritius to handle political stunts, International Court “gaming” - and other nonsense from Russia, China, and Nigel Farage 🤣
    anything in Conservative Party manifesto about changing the agreement, scrapping the agreement, will be just just pie in the sky - because Mauritius and India won’t negotiate.

    After a near 65 year entanglement, UK have a way out.

    Chagos Chagos Chagos - The End.
    Except!

    There’s one other way this Mouse can still Roar.

    Reform making hay on the amount of negotiation and agreement in the final deal, agreed by the Conservatives - clear as day in the Civil Service Minutes from all 11 negotiation sessions and the phone calls and face to face Summit of the PM’s over the years of Boris, Truss and Rishi - before slowing it so Labour PM signed it.

    Conservatives need to hope none of this is “Ship of State, only ship that leaks from the top” during the coming local election campaign.
    Chagos will not play any role in May 26 and even if your prediction is true it will be two weeks after
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 837
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sir Lindsay Hoyle, like Rebekah Vardy, you’re a grass.

    Snitches gets stitches.

    Can't stand Hoyle or Mandelson but you just know if Labour were still in 'protect our Peter' mode Sir Lindsay would be pulliing out all the stops to run cover for them. Him grassing Mandelson up is probably the clearest sign that Labour are going to hang Petie out to dry with alacrity.
    Hoyle hates Starmer that's clear.

    I suspect as the son of a lifelong Labour man, who like him has been immersed in Westminster, he hates the idea of a Johnny come lately arriving in 2015 and being leader so quickly.

    His constant put downs all about Commons tradition and protocols and procedures.

    Particularly policy announcements.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,508
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    Season 5 trailer for "For All Mankind" is up. It's 2012 in the show's timeline and a war of independence is brewing between Mars and Earth. Will it turn into a prequel to "The Expanse" or "Star Trek"? Let's find out...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zojwKLlY_H8

    Babylon 5.

    We know how pivotal Mars declaring independence from the Earth Alliance was.
    Pause

    Pause

    Dammit, I never thought of that!
    My geeky innocence has its uses.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,003
    Here’s my theory on the latest Mandelbrot Set

    1) Mandy is furious that he stuffed - can’t go out and enjoy the finer things in life. The proles are talking about arresting him. How vulgar.
    2) Mandy finds a chum to lend him a private plane and a place in the British Virgin Islands.
    3) why stay in gloomy old London when the white sands of private beach beckon?
    4) In his mind it’s not flight from prosecution because BVI has extradition etc.
    5) but in the back of his mind is this - if it gets all serious, they can’t just drag him out of bed in cuffs. He’d have legal notice they are coming, probably. More so if it’s a private island he’s staying on.
    6) and the BVI is a short plane/boat ride from other jurisdictions. So if anything goes wrong, he’s got options. Mind you, might want to file some docs with the Americans before taking a ride in a Cigarette boat…

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,995
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    Season 5 trailer for "For All Mankind" is up. It's 2012 in the show's timeline and a war of independence is brewing between Mars and Earth. Will it turn into a prequel to "The Expanse" or "Star Trek"? Let's find out...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zojwKLlY_H8

    Babylon 5.

    We know how pivotal Mars declaring independence from the Earth Alliance was.
    Pause

    Pause

    Dammit, I never thought of that!
    My geeky innocence has its uses.
    Is the main site down - I can only access through vanilla ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,285
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    First, of course.

    Labour and the Lib Dem simpletons need to see the greens for what they are. Not cost fluffy frenemies that are environmentalists but hard left, ruthless, Corbynistas.

    If they don’t they’ll get battered by them.

    Indeed. They are not the Ramsay/Chowns Ecology Party types any more.
    Which does mean they might disintegrate in Waveney and Herefordshire just as they storm the cities
    I bumped into a Corbynista trade unionist the other day who stood as Labour Parliamentary candidate in a staunchly blue shire constituency near me, winning 26% of the vote, up from 17% in the 2015 GE in the same constituency.

    There's quite a substantial far left vote in rural and market town England, and with the swing to Greens, I expect them to hold Waveney and Herefordshire quite comfortably.
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