Tories could be hit harder by local election u-turn than Labour says Prof Sir John Curtice
Tories could be hit harder by local election u-turn than Labour says Prof Sir John Curtice – politicalbetting.com
There is no polling and political expert I respect more than Professor Sir John Curtice, as a wise man once observed nobody became rich by betting against Sir John. I am happy that he shares my view that the u-turn on holding the postponed local elections represents a much bigger risk for the Tories than Labour and that means more problems for Kemi Badenoch which could see a leadership challenge.
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But the results in a handful of London Boroughs where journalists live will be the headline whatever happens.
Reform win Essex (if they dont its a poor night for Nigel)
The Sussexes and Hampshire probably end up NoC with various LD vs Con vs Ref bun fights for largest party
Suffolk - maybe Reform, Ref largest party NOC possible
Norfolk - complicated. Norwich wards will split Lab Green mainly, North Norfolk is LD country and theyll do well here.
Ref will outgun Tories in the rural areas and market towns but by how much? Wymondham Central suggests its not a done deal.
Add in Restore in Yarmouth and its a tricky road to Ref majority
Reform wants to be able to point to Advance/Restore and say "see! they're the real nasty right wingers!"
And, to a certain extent, that's the case already. Farage has been able to point to the Musk-Robinson Advance, and say "see! we're not them".
Is there more that's possible? Sure: if Restore gets to 3-5%, and draws the fruitcakes away. But just as likely is that Restore does about as well as Advance, and no one gives a shit.
There’s some private polling doing the rounds that says in areas with Reform councils the Lab to Reform swing is much smaller than areas without Reform councils.
More Reform councils the better for Labour in 2029.
A lightweight arrogant schoolgirl level antagonist who has no sense of anything other than her own importance.
The mistake Labour have made is focusing too much on Farage and not enough on Polanski.
Now that McSweeney has fallen, the obsession with Farage will swing to a coordinated effort to chop away at Polanski.
The Tories under Badenoch are on a one way ticket to extinction.
The emergence of Lowe only exacerbates the speed of the Tory decline. Lowe is the thinking man's new Right Wing Tory magnet, he'll take those from the old Shire Tory wing that Farage never could.
The personification of a turkey voting for Christmas.
Remember the timing aspect of the locals though. The early results will be terrible for Labour, setting the media narrative. The Tory losses are more likely to happen the following day, so too most Lib Dem gains. By that point the headline - “Labour suffers shellacking in locals” - is set, and Kemi may get off fairly lightly.
So on the polls due this week
More in Common have been running 1 to 3% other in 2026
Find Out Now 2 to 4%
If those figures go up we might have our first tentative evidence of Lowism
Edit and Opinium due Sat eve has been 3% other all year so far
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/2023776936611422719
The Reverend Jesse Jackson is Dead at 84. I knew him well, long before becoming President. He was a good man, with lots of personality, grit, and “street smarts.” He was very gregarious - Someone who truly loved people! Despite the fact that I am falsely and consistently called a Racist by the Scoundrels and Lunatics on the Radical Left, Democrats ALL, it was always my pleasure to help Jesse along the way. I provided office space for him and his Rainbow Coalition, for years, in the Trump Building at 40 Wall Street; Responded to his request for help in getting CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM passed and signed, when no other President would even try; Single handedly pushed and passed long term funding for Historically Black Colleges & Universities (HBCUs), which Jesse loved, but also, which other Presidents would not do; Responded to Jesse’s support for Opportunity Zones, the single most successful economic development package yet approved for Black business men/women, and much more. Jesse was a force of nature like few others before him. He had much to do with the Election, without acknowledgment or credit, of Barack Hussein Obama, a man who Jesse could not stand. He loved his family greatly, and to them I send my deepest sympathies and condolences. Jesse will be missed! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Does character count? RFK, Jr. provides an interesting test: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#Personal_life
I have long said that — if a man’s wife doesn’t trust him — neither should we.
Ramadan Kareem to all those who observe.
17.5% to 20% NEV doesnt seem out of the way as a prediction for 2026.
Go look up the results from 2021 and half the Tory % and anywhere they are still over 30% they stand a good chance of holding/will be targetting hardest. If they can creep that NEV into the low 20s they'll be in better shape.
I'd rather be defending in Norfolk than Suffolk round this way, although they might do well in Nick Timothy's neck of the woods
“The language of Donald Trump has been a source of shame for our nation. Humiliation and untruth.”
“Trump wants to pull us back into white supremacy.”
However, the story of the night will be Scotland and Wales and labour's performance with Starmer in the cross hairs
I know there are several anti Kemi posters on here, but if the conservative party think the way forward is another change of leader to Cleverly then they have not learnt their lesson
This is a marathon, not a sprint and despite the attacks on Kemi, some verging on the very unpleasant, I expect her to remain in office
I was going to vote Plaid in May, but both my wife and I will vote conservative
(Asking for a president.)
Btw, Jim, if you use blockquotes within your post, it messes up the blockquotes in any replies.
Best to use italics instead,
It obviously upsets some respected scribes so I will relent(no pun intended)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuILCLp_p5U
Although Curtice is likely right on the substance of the outcome. I suspect a lot of talk on the night to be about Labour performance in Scotland and Wales (with a little bit about Conservative performance in those places). They are the Government after all. Then it will be about performances in the cities where the journos live and finally the counties of England. Of course the interesting thing is whether that chatter stays that way and keeps pressure on Starmer or turns to the Conservative performance. If the latter Badenoch may find life uncomfortable if the predictions prove correct.
https://x.com/TheRealThelmaJ1/status/2023567698521739348
On February 24th the Department of Justice is going to destroy all copies of Jack Smith's secret Mar-a-Lago report. Criminal.
See also:
https://americanoversight.org/american-oversight-appeals-judge-cannon-order-that-could-clear-way-for-trump-to-permanently-destroy-jack-smith-report/
We have moved our headquarters to Miami, Florida.
I think the Lib Dems will gain West Surrey, and perhaps East. I'd expect East and West Sussex and Hampshire to be NOC. I'm not sure which will be the largest party.
I see no change in the mayoralties.
I think Labour will lose Bradford, Birmingham, Calderdale, Kirklees to NOC, in addition to losing Swindon, Thurrock, Barnsley, Sunderland, Wakefield, and Sandwell to Reform. I expect them to lose Croydon, Westminster, and Barnet to the Conservatives, perhaps Enfield and Wandsworth, as well. I'd expect them to lose Camden to NOC, and perhaps Hackney, Haringey, and Islington, in the face of a strong Green challenge.
I think the Conservatives will lose Bromley to NOC, in addition to the counties mentioned above, and Newcastle under Lyme.
Finest Conserve In The World.
Time will tell
Under the existing rules, a dual national is able to travel to the UK using a passport issued by a second country - but from 25 February that will no longer be the case.
Instead, they will need to show either a British passport, or a document called a certificate of entitlement - and without one of them, they could face being denied the right to travel back to the UK.
Emirates Airlines in Dubai tried something similar about a year ago and got educated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2d9yk2kpjo
Gateshead really isn't much like Newcastle.
On a slightly related note of “mucky thoughts” - I have the hots for jodi balfour.
It’s a long road back for the Tories.
However, I am convinced when the public see Farage and his colleagues there will be a reaction to their Trump style hate policies
My wife has fallen for Kemi saying she is new, interesting, and seems ready to take on the 'man's world' of politics
We will see how this spring plays out but Starmer has more to fear from May 26
If Kemi is so wonderful then, we have a fine Conservative Party policy created and honed by Conservative government hand in hand with Conservative councils to scrap councils and five thousand councillors, streamlining to save money. In order to run down councils in a sound money saving, resource diverting to the reorg, way, the conservatives in government postponed local council elections, Conservative governments that Kemi, and most her front bench, were a part of.
So now in opposition, why the hell is she vehemently against exactly the same thing?
That 100% brass neck opportunistic nature of her’s is 100% hideous, is it not?
https://x.com/i/status/2023801397138047248
'One of the most unheralded stories of last year was the increase in Canadian exports to the United Kingdom, to the point Britain has become this country’s second-largest export market, overtaking China'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clygz17y5kdo
If his party is slso a tenth of the impact he gets the 3% mentioned earlier
Restore = Pearson or Nuttalls UKIP or Griffin 2010 or, perhaps more appositely as he stood for them, Referendum 97
Edit: This of course may vary depending on the observer's position on the Earth, which means that the start of Ramadan may be celebrated on different days in different countries.
Indeed he wants the EU and CPTPP to negotiate a trade agreement between their 2 blocks serving the interests of 1. 5 billion people
There is no way, under any form of reason or possibility, Labour negotiated and signed off the Chagos agreement with Mauritius in just 8 weeks. We know the Conservative Party had 11 rounds of negotiation plus a PM to PM summit creating the current Chagos deal - Conservative government told the house of commons and committee this, we know all the most contentious items had been agreed before Labour came to power - so why is Kemi both the biggest critic of the Chagos deal, denies the Conservatives had anything to do with it, and claims it’s wholly Labours Chagos deal?
It’s not only it’s a dammed lie, it’s the fact Kemi can’t actually lie about this. Labour only have to publish the minutes of the 11 rounds of Conservative negotiation and the plan A document they inherited, and the Kemi leadership and her front bench dies instantly, on the spot.
What's not to like ?
The sighting at the end of this month is more ‘fun’, when you leave work not knowing if the Eid holiday is going to be tomorrow or the day after.
The previous goverment were required to enter discussions but did not agree terms
It is 17 months since Starmer and Helmer picked up the stalled deal and simply rolled over
Let labour publish the minutes if they dare
This might also help with the NEV share which now seems to be the barometer of Badenoch's survival. Will the Conservatives be ahead of Labour, albeit both well behind Reform?