I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Such a pledge will surely keep them out of government in a hung parliament
That would probably be wise.
The event of a Reform minority government is likely to be a car crash, and one that makes the Starmer or Truss governments look stable and popular.
The Tories would be wise to stand clear of the debris as that clown car goes over the cliff, though perhaps voting for the odd bill that isn't completely deranged.
A further GE would then happen and they would be able to pick up the mantle of the sensible right.
if I were Farage I’d be sleeping with one eye open from now on - if you can look at Robert Jenrick and think “there’s a man I trust” now, more fool you.
Yup
He wanted a big splashy press announcement, but it's a case of "Frog announces he will ferry scorpion who has promised not to sting him"
I think the way Jenrick kept him waiting at the press conference will have annoyed Farage. It could have been what is regarded as a power play. Whether deliberate or not, it made the boss look foolish and most bosses would be a bit resentful about that
In the long read of where it all went wrong between them, this will be the original sin
The explanation, supposedly, was that the Tories had leaked Jenrick's speech to the press, as left on the photocopier, not long before the prezzer, and he was frantically rewriting it to have some new things to say
“Later, it emerged that Jenrick had been delayed because he had got lost in the corridors of Millbank Tower, getting stuck one floor below the press conference location after failing to find his way up the stairs.”
I’m starting to think that “Robert Jenrick” is simply an AI hallucination
I thought X wasn’t allowed to undress people anymore
i) It's not supposed to. ii) It's likely flattering to reality. iii) Even this sort of AI slop is killing artists and putting your RAM sky high in price. iv) When this is done to Reform's opponents; gander, goose..
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I predict this will all end in tears for Bobby J.
In the Westminster bubble this sort of political treachery might get him attention and be seen as a bit of a power play, but long-term, politics is also about character and I’m not convinced that someone quite so opportunistic is going to have an easy time of it. In addition, if I were Farage I’d be sleeping with one eye open from now on - if you can look at Robert Jenrick and think “there’s a man I trust” now, more fool you.
I'm not 100% sure about that.
Shamelessness, and even transparent shameless treachery, can be a political superpower.
Farage, for example, was able to appear unembarrassed by Jenrick's humiliating unmasking, and give him a welcome more appropriate to the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher in pint sized make form.
What might have been a disastrous introduction of the defector actually went off reasonably well in the circumstances (and allowed the BBC's political correspondent to declare it a major coup for Reform).
And the quality has done Trump little harm over the years.
Trump is an outlier for so many reasons though. He is able to upset the normal order of things in so many ways because he possesses, as much as it grudges many of us to accept, some quite unique talents. But Trump is a once-in-a-generation kind of figure. Robert Jenrick is not Donald Trump.
No, though Jenrick clearly sees himself as the UK JD Vance now to Farage's Trump. The intellectual heft of the populist right to the frontman showman
Vance is a good analogy, I agree.
Bobby is a namby-pamby Centrist compared to Vance
Vance is a deeply unpleasant character, but you feel he probably has a whole bunch of real world skills from hunting and fishing to building a shed and mending his own car. Jenrick can't even hang onto a few pieces of paper or find his own way up the stairs.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBYS who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
She may well have thought he was a worthless piece of shit but also realised he was hugely popular with the party faithful. One reason why he was in the shadow cabinet but in a fairly minor position.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
She may well have thought he was a worthless piece of shit but also realised he was hugely popular with the party faithful. One reason why he was in the shadow cabinet but in a fairly minor position.
Her best line was "now he's Farage's problem, not mine" ?
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
I’m wondering this morning whether the Nobel peace prize is now irrevocably dabased as an award.
It’s been increasingly politicised over decades to the point it had already lost much of its credibility. Now it’s being traded like an nft token in return for hoped-for favours.
I think the Nobel committee might want to consider dropping the peace prize from now on and focusing back on scientific achievements.
They ought to cancel last years award immediately and state clearly that you cannot sell it like a bauble.
F*** it and go the other way. Auction them off to megalomaniacs - bids starting at £5bn. Use the cash to compensate the victims of war. May as well get something out of this new crazy world.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
That is also that under 30s dont watch Reform TV, sorry Gbeebies.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
That is also that under 30s dont watch Reform TV, sorry Gbeebies.
Mostly though a number of under 30s present it.
Reform also get a reasonable vote amongst men under 30 but not women under 30.
Even at the last general election Reform won 12% of men aged 18-24 and 15% of men aged 25-49 but only 6% of women aged 18-24 and just 10% of women aged 25-49.
Kemi should therefore focus on ambitious young women working in the private sector in particular
From there, it was possible to calculate how many nuclear bombs could be produced. Six such bombs had reportedly been made by the end of apartheid in the early 1990s; the United States had initially aided the regime’s nuclear program. Thanks to the system of forced labor, South Africa “made the cheapest electricity in the world,” Dr. Christie said, which aided the process of uranium enrichment and made the country’s nuclear program a magnet for Western support. (South Africa also benefited from its status as a Cold War ally against the Soviet Union.)
Dr. Christie turned his findings over to the A.N.C. Instead of opting for the safety of England — there was the possibility of a lecturer position at Oxford — he returned home and was arrested by South Africa’s Security Police. He had been betrayed by Craig Williamson, a fellow student at Witwatersrand, who had become a spy for the security services and was later granted amnesty by South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
After 48 hours of torture, Dr. Christie wrote a forced confession — “the best thing I ever wrote,” he later told the BBC, noting that he had made sure the confession included “all my recommendations to the African National Congress” about the best way to sabotage Koeberg and other facilities.
“And, gloriously, the judge read it out in court,” Dr. Christie added. “So my recommendations went from the judge’s mouth” straight to the A.N.C. Two years later, in December 1982, Koeberg was bombed by white A.N.C. operatives who had gotten jobs at the facility. They followed Dr. Christie’s instructions to the letter.
“Of all the achievements of the armed struggle, the bombing of Koeberg is there,” Dr. Christie said at the 2023 conference, emphasizing its importance. “Frankly, when I got to hearing of it, it made being in prison much, much easier to tolerate.”
And another piece of by now utterly unremarkable news.
SC state Rep. RJ May — ANOTHER Trump-supporting politician who regularly accused drag queens and transgender people of harming kids — was sentenced to 17.5 years in federal prison on Wednesday after…
Winding people up for the fun of it used to be considered something people grew out of while they were teenagers, but these days you can make a career out of it more easily than ever.
I think Labour’s attack lines have become a lot easier after yet another Tory defects.
I know they’re getting a Labourite next week (although I note Farage said “Labour figure” today, not MP). Who could it be?
But the idea this is not just another Tory iteration seems harder and harder to counter.
A Labour figure - any theories?
In the history books, and plays like James Graham‘s This House, Labour MPs and the Union Barons and shop stewards are the most anti semitic, racist, misogynistic MP’s, activists, members and voters of all. This is what working class and Labour people are historically ingrained with.
A list of who is about to and later will don the Reform Nazi uniform will be easy. It should also be a successful betting opportunity for PBers.
I have Blunket top of the list. Alongside Glasman.
No chance Blunket. I'm slightly worried about Alan Sugar.
He won’t switch to them, he’s Jewish.
I know it's Reform and therefore anything is permissible, but explicit accusations of Nazism are quite gamey. Might want to rein it in a bit.
A lot of candidates Reform have dropped been for sharing Hitler memes, praised aspects of the Nazi regime, or associated with known neo-Nazi individuals and groups. For some reason they seem to attract such people, what is it?
Maybe its the excessive focus on race and immigration, that they say is main reason for everything wrong in country today, like you can’t get house, dentist, don’t have enough money, see your community changing around you etc. So the policies that will fix what is broken Britain is place “foreigners” at the bottom of housing lists, ban "transgender propaganda" in schools, etc. and remove 750,000 migrants under the “borders plan”.
Also the authoritarian streak that runs through everything Reform. A reform MPs response to a police officer stamping on a man’s head at Manchester Airport was: “These police should be commended, I’d give them a medal.” “My constituents,”“are fed up with seeing police dancing around rainbows and being nice to people”.
Anything I have listed here so far that doesn’t read across to EXACTLY how NAZI parties always FISH for VOTES?
You say rein it in - but when is it acceptable political cut and thrust or should be reigned in, take this as example, fair enough from the Conservatives wasn’t it?
Ultimately is Reform not a populist party and cult of personality party, banging on about corrupt elites running the country? What political platform can be any less Nazi than that?
It reads like a confected collage of gripes and anecdotes. It reads nothing like evidence of a party being Nazis as you've accused Reform.
Commentary on both Reform and Trump here verges on the hysterical or Hyperbolic.
Reform are a threat to democracy. Really ? How ?
Last time I looked they weren’t cancelling elections they were likely to lose. That’s third world dictator stuff.
WRT Reform I agree that the suggestion of being anti-democratic, Nazi and all that are just nonsense. Though that may be more out of respect for the UK's tradition of finding Dad's Army both very funny and also rather true than out of what Reform freely let loose would like to be. Farage as Spode!
USA is not UK and Trump is not a figure of fun. Anyone who is sure the USA will continue to have free and fair elections is under a misapprehension.
The UK may not be the U.S.A. yet, but it has to be added, there, that historically over-confidence among the mainstream centre-riight and centre-left has been a key factor in the rise of anti-democratic regimes in Europe.
If Farage is happy to openly tell us that his idol is someone who is developing paramilitary forces and regularly questioning the basis of elections, we should believe him. As if that wasn't enough. several of his base and representatives have also been open about their own authoritarian sympathies too, as MoonRabbit outlined a list of earlier.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
Those polls are of course sub samples and not to be taken in any way as evidence or proof of anything.
I got told off for quoting a sub sample of 2000 people - it's not therefore unreasonable to call you out for relying on them.
By the way, IF you want to play that game, Find Out Now's latest sub sample of 18-29 year olds has the Conservatives at 5%.
I think Labour’s attack lines have become a lot easier after yet another Tory defects.
I know they’re getting a Labourite next week (although I note Farage said “Labour figure” today, not MP). Who could it be?
But the idea this is not just another Tory iteration seems harder and harder to counter.
A Labour figure - any theories?
In the history books, and plays like James Graham‘s This House, Labour MPs and the Union Barons and shop stewards are the most anti semitic, racist, misogynistic MP’s, activists, members and voters of all. This is what working class and Labour people are historically ingrained with.
A list of who is about to and later will don the Reform Nazi uniform will be easy. It should also be a successful betting opportunity for PBers.
I have Blunket top of the list. Alongside Glasman.
No chance Blunket. I'm slightly worried about Alan Sugar.
He won’t switch to them, he’s Jewish.
I know it's Reform and therefore anything is permissible, but explicit accusations of Nazism are quite gamey. Might want to rein it in a bit.
A lot of candidates Reform have dropped been for sharing Hitler memes, praised aspects of the Nazi regime, or associated with known neo-Nazi individuals and groups. For some reason they seem to attract such people, what is it?
Maybe its the excessive focus on race and immigration, that they say is main reason for everything wrong in country today, like you can’t get house, dentist, don’t have enough money, see your community changing around you etc. So the policies that will fix what is broken Britain is place “foreigners” at the bottom of housing lists, ban "transgender propaganda" in schools, etc. and remove 750,000 migrants under the “borders plan”.
Also the authoritarian streak that runs through everything Reform. A reform MPs response to a police officer stamping on a man’s head at Manchester Airport was: “These police should be commended, I’d give them a medal.” “My constituents,”“are fed up with seeing police dancing around rainbows and being nice to people”.
Anything I have listed here so far that doesn’t read across to EXACTLY how NAZI parties always FISH for VOTES?
You say rein it in - but when is it acceptable political cut and thrust or should be reigned in, take this as example, fair enough from the Conservatives wasn’t it?
Ultimately is Reform not a populist party and cult of personality party, banging on about corrupt elites running the country? What political platform can be any less Nazi than that?
It reads like a confected collage of gripes and anecdotes. It reads nothing like evidence of a party being Nazis as you've accused Reform.
Commentary on both Reform and Trump here verges on the hysterical or Hyperbolic.
Reform are a threat to democracy. Really ? How ?
Last time I looked they weren’t cancelling elections they were likely to lose. That’s third world dictator stuff.
WRT Reform I agree that the suggestion of being anti-democratic, Nazi and all that are just nonsense. Though that may be more out of respect for the UK's tradition of finding Dad's Army both very funny and also rather true than out of what Reform freely let loose would like to be. Farage as Spode!
USA is not UK and Trump is not a figure of fun. Anyone who is sure the USA will continue to have free and fair elections is under a misapprehension.
The UK may not be the U.S.A. yet, but it has to be added, there, that historically over-confidence among the mainstream centre-riight and centre-left has been a key factor in the rise of anti-democratic regimes in Europe.
If Farage is happy to openly tell us that his idol is someone who is developing paramilitary forces and regularly questioning the basis of elections, we should believe him. As if that wasn't enough. several of his base and representatives have also been open about their own authoritarian sympathies too, as MoonRabbit outlined a list of earlier.
Trump was elected though, as was Farage.
Even when Trump tried his coup in January 2021 it was defeated in the end.
I think Labour’s attack lines have become a lot easier after yet another Tory defects.
I know they’re getting a Labourite next week (although I note Farage said “Labour figure” today, not MP). Who could it be?
But the idea this is not just another Tory iteration seems harder and harder to counter.
A Labour figure - any theories?
In the history books, and plays like James Graham‘s This House, Labour MPs and the Union Barons and shop stewards are the most anti semitic, racist, misogynistic MP’s, activists, members and voters of all. This is what working class and Labour people are historically ingrained with.
A list of who is about to and later will don the Reform Nazi uniform will be easy. It should also be a successful betting opportunity for PBers.
I have Blunket top of the list. Alongside Glasman.
No chance Blunket. I'm slightly worried about Alan Sugar.
He won’t switch to them, he’s Jewish.
I know it's Reform and therefore anything is permissible, but explicit accusations of Nazism are quite gamey. Might want to rein it in a bit.
A lot of candidates Reform have dropped been for sharing Hitler memes, praised aspects of the Nazi regime, or associated with known neo-Nazi individuals and groups. For some reason they seem to attract such people, what is it?
Maybe its the excessive focus on race and immigration, that they say is main reason for everything wrong in country today, like you can’t get house, dentist, don’t have enough money, see your community changing around you etc. So the policies that will fix what is broken Britain is place “foreigners” at the bottom of housing lists, ban "transgender propaganda" in schools, etc. and remove 750,000 migrants under the “borders plan”.
Also the authoritarian streak that runs through everything Reform. A reform MPs response to a police officer stamping on a man’s head at Manchester Airport was: “These police should be commended, I’d give them a medal.” “My constituents,”“are fed up with seeing police dancing around rainbows and being nice to people”.
Anything I have listed here so far that doesn’t read across to EXACTLY how NAZI parties always FISH for VOTES?
You say rein it in - but when is it acceptable political cut and thrust or should be reigned in, take this as example, fair enough from the Conservatives wasn’t it?
Ultimately is Reform not a populist party and cult of personality party, banging on about corrupt elites running the country? What political platform can be any less Nazi than that?
It reads like a confected collage of gripes and anecdotes. It reads nothing like evidence of a party being Nazis as you've accused Reform.
Commentary on both Reform and Trump here verges on the hysterical or Hyperbolic.
Reform are a threat to democracy. Really ? How ?
Last time I looked they weren’t cancelling elections they were likely to lose. That’s third world dictator stuff.
WRT Reform I agree that the suggestion of being anti-democratic, Nazi and all that are just nonsense. Though that may be more out of respect for the UK's tradition of finding Dad's Army both very funny and also rather true than out of what Reform freely let loose would like to be. Farage as Spode!
USA is not UK and Trump is not a figure of fun. Anyone who is sure the USA will continue to have free and fair elections is under a misapprehension.
The UK may not be the U.S.A. yet, but it has to be added, there, that historically over-confidence among the mainstream centre-riight and centre-left has been a key factor in the rise of anti-democratic regimes in Europe.
If Farage is happy to openly tell us that his idol is someone who is developing paramilitary forces and regularly questioning the basis of elections, we should believe him. As if that wasn't enough. several of his base and representatives have also been open about their own authoritarian sympathies too, as MoonRabbit outlined a list of earlier.
Trump was elected though, as was Farage.
Even when Trump tried his coup in January 2021 it was defeated in the end.
Well, as we all know, authoritarian regimes have come to power through elections in the past.
Jenrick's little speech yesterday, for instance, was a classic of ressentiment and the authoritarian style.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
Those polls are of course sub samples and not to be taken in any way as evidence or proof of anything.
I got told off for quoting a sub sample of 2000 people - it's not therefore unreasonable to call you out for relying on them.
By the way, IF you want to play that game, Find Out Now's latest sub sample of 18-29 year olds has the Conservatives at 5%.
Even then that would be no change on the 5% Ipsos had the Conservatives getting in 2024 with under 30s, FON are of course by far the best pollster for Reform too.
Yougov by contrast now has the Conservatives up to 13% with 18-24s in their latest poll compared to just 8% with under 25s in 2024.
One possibility that occurs to me is the IOW West MP. He's fearing the almost-certainty of being a one-term wonder, and knows he'll be up against the former Tory MP Seely who hopes to get his seat back. The models currently all have it as a clear Reform win, and hence jumping to Reform is really the only path he has to keep his seat. There's nothing in his politics to suggest he's anything but solid Labour, but his background is the family fish-and-chip shop, so it's not as if there are other high flying career options that will open up to him, and being an MP will have been the opportunity of a lifetime. It depends on how careerist he is.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
People are saying this puts and end to any possibility of a Conservative/Reform coalition, but does it actually? If they win 350 seats between them at the next election, are they really going to turn down running the country?
Well if my aunty had balls she'd be my uncle.
No, she'd be labelled by you as a transgender man, and we'd debate all day long if she was still a woman or not.
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I predict this will all end in tears for Bobby J.
In the Westminster bubble this sort of political treachery might get him attention and be seen as a bit of a power play, but long-term, politics is also about character and I’m not convinced that someone quite so opportunistic is going to have an easy time of it. In addition, if I were Farage I’d be sleeping with one eye open from now on - if you can look at Robert Jenrick and think “there’s a man I trust” now, more fool you.
I'm not 100% sure about that.
Shamelessness, and even transparent shameless treachery, can be a political superpower.
Farage, for example, was able to appear unembarrassed by Jenrick's humiliating unmasking, and give him a welcome more appropriate to the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher in pint sized make form.
What might have been a disastrous introduction of the defector actually went off reasonably well in the circumstances (and allowed the BBC's political correspondent to declare it a major coup for Reform).
And the quality has done Trump little harm over the years.
Trump is an outlier for so many reasons though. He is able to upset the normal order of things in so many ways because he possesses, as much as it grudges many of us to accept, some quite unique talents. But Trump is a once-in-a-generation kind of figure. Robert Jenrick is not Donald Trump.
No, though Jenrick clearly sees himself as the UK JD Vance now to Farage's Trump. The intellectual heft of the populist right to the frontman showman
Vance is a good analogy, I agree.
Bobby is a namby-pamby Centrist compared to Vance
Vance is a deeply unpleasant character, but you feel he probably has a whole bunch of real world skills from hunting and fishing to building a shed and mending his own car. Jenrick can't even hang onto a few pieces of paper or find his own way up the stairs.
Vance, a man from a deprived background with real world skills and who has risen through his own abilities.
And the Dems thought it clever to attack Vance's background instead of his beliefs.
The US Democratic Party in 2024 should be the textbook example of how not to do politics.
What’s worrying is that they appear not to have learned the lesssons of losing to, of all people, Donald Trump again.
What’s even more worrying, is that mid-term success this year will embolden them to double-down on everything that made ‘24 such a failure for the next Presidential elections. Starting with fixing the primaries for the DNC preferred candidate.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I think Jenrick is energetic and effective, and relatively intelligent, but it's hard to escape the conclusion he's a morally bankrupt individual and is utterly untrustworthy.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
The morning after the day before and it remains to be seen how much impact the Jenrick defenestration/defection (delete as appropriate) will have in the wider electorate.
Jenrick has made/shat his bed (again, delete as appropriate) and I often wonder about the mindset with such public defections. When I stopped being an LD member, there was never the slightest thought I could join another party (or even vote for another party) and I can understand ambitious politicians who know full well the only way to electoral success is to have a Party machine behind, switching opportunistically.
I'm just not sure this will be the strategic triumph so many claim for Badenoch - for me, it was all a bit too theatrical. A bit more "in sorrow" and a bit less "in anger" would have been better and Jenrick has (or had) his supporters within the Conservative Party and he was, last summer, a far more active and serious Conservative campaigner than Badenoch.
Jenrick obviously came to see the Badenoch strategy as not being compatible with the Rees-Mogg desire to "unify the Right" - this starts from the premise Reform is a right-wing movement about which I'm far from convinced. Badenoch's team are correct in arguing there is no future being Reform-lite but that will leave the Conservatives (and the LDs) with some hard thinking to do about what might happen after the next election.
Badenoch wants to win a majority on her own for the Conservatives - understandably. That might still happen but realistically we are looking at somehting else. IF the door to an arrangement with Reform is closed, that either means working with other parties (including Labour, which must surely be anathema) or sitting in splendid futility on the Opposition benches while some other grouping of parties forms the next Government and runs Britain for the next four or five years.
The aim must therefore to be either the first or second party in the next Parliament - if not the Government, then the Opposition. To fall to third is to fall into irrelevance (ask the LDs) so that is the risk/reward for the Conservatives in 2029. Whether yesterday's events have helped or hindered that, time will tell - it always does.
Yes. Job one is to avert and avoid extinction. It is just a fact of life that sometimes you spend years in opposition - Labour was in opposition from 1979-1997 - but opposition/hibernation are as different from extinction as a hedgehog is different from a hairbrush.
Avoiding extinction at least looks possible. IMO the next stage involves being clearly different from Reform both in popular media terms and in competence and policy reality. The Tories need to keep saying stuff on the Mail/Sun level, keep talking intelligently to the opinion formers and look competent.
One particular thing seems to me long term important. Reform's image remains, whatever the reality, that it is a bit dog whistley on Islam/Muslims and so on. An awesome reality awaits: the Islamic community in this country is several millions strong; the great majority live lives of decency and devotion, hard work and family cohesion. It isn't going away. Culturally they are the 21st century version of the 19th century nonconformists. They have yet to be fully accepted in the political process as exactly what they are. The Tories can distinguish themselves from Reform by fully embracing this fact, in much the same way that the fact there are four million Roman Catholics is just a politically fairly boring fact of life, though once upon a time they were feared and execrated.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Imagine being so bad at IT security as to write a defection letter on the company computer.
Do it on a personal computer, at home, with no VPN to the office, and that only ever uses a local printer.
Your IT department finds it really easy to see what you’re doing on their network, even if it’s with your own computer in an environment such as a political party.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
Now Jenrick has gone incumbent Tory MPs and councillors can now at least say to Labour and LD voters in their seats with a bit more credibility this morning 'please lend me a tactical vote to stop Reform' than they could yesterday.
In that sense, I think longer term yesterday's news may benefit the Tories more than Reform. Are any more Tory voters going to defect to Reform now Jenrick has left the party than had already gone? I highly doubt it, those still voting Tory even now will almost certainly be Kemi loyalists on the whole. A Jenrick free Tory party though is one liberal and left of centre voters could vote for tactically in seats held by the Tories to beat Farage's party more than a Tory party with Jenrick still in it.
Traditional Labour voters who have gone Reform may be a bit less keen with all these high profile ex Tories now in the party, so Sir Keir may also be a bit happier today
Kemi's best bet now is to (rather brazenly) claim the mantle of being a new(er) broom and focus very heavily on the idea of a new deal on the economy. Her problem will come in the inevitable conflict that will arise between what they should very much be doing as a party - having an appealing offering for the young on skills, training, home ownership, stability - and the core vote of oldies and NIMBIES who won't want the triple lock or their homes touched or neighbourhoods developed.
Her Stamp Duty scrap plan and floating means testing the triple lock line up with that, hence the Tories are up in the polls with under 30s since the general election but down with over 50s and pensioners
That is also that under 30s dont watch Reform TV, sorry Gbeebies.
Musk wants Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. If the influence isn''t curtailed of both U.S. big tech, economically, and Reform, at the ballot box, it's perfectly possible that we could find ourselves in a similar situation here.
The E.U., in fact, is the party building greater legislative safeguards against the Musks of this world, even if, without the integration of British tech, it may not be able to compete with them, for both our sakes.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I think Jenrick is energetic and effective, and relatively intelligent, but it's hard to escape the conclusion he's a morally bankrupt individual and is utterly untrustworthy.
If he is effective, of the 100 plus things he thinks are terrible about the UK, which did he fix when he was at the heart of government? Has he got a single achievement bar rising the party ranks and Conhome lists?
As with "are you going to resign, Prime Minister?", it's a silly question... What, exactly, did she expect him to say? "Yes, I'm buggering off to Reform, but for pity's sake don't tell Kemi, you know what she's like."
Do journalists really think that politicians speak to them under oath? If so, they have even bigger egos than I thought.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
Do you mean "What do you think is the most likely result of the next general election?"?
I wonder if it was an options list and they didn't include Ref? Seems like a weird oversight/Ref minimisation strategy (delete as prejudice demands). There are a lot (48%) of 'Don't knows' tho'.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Photocopiers double as printers so that is easy to explain. I was once sworn to secrecy about some papers I'd seen while fixing a printer. Ironically, to this day I've no idea what they were concerned about. Also, the same plot device – a page from a print job being left behind – has just been used in the BBC's hilarious new sitcom, Black Ops.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
Do you mean "What do you think is the most likely result of the next general election?"?
I wonder if it was an options list and they didn't include Ref? Seems like a weird oversight/Ref minimisation strategy (delete as prejudice demands). There are a lot (48%) of 'Don't knows' tho'.
I am sure the 'don't knows' got it right, but I can't believe there isn't at least a few % who are as sure as Leon that Reform are going to win. 'Don't know' does not really capture their fervour. But the mystery is that this is YouGov not some bunch of biased Stalinists.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Photocopiers double as printers so that is easy to explain. I was once sworn to secrecy about some papers I'd seen while fixing a printer. Ironically, to this day I've no idea what they were concerned about. Also, the same plot device – a page from a print job being left behind – has just been used in the BBC's hilarious new sitcom, Black Ops.
The real lesson from all of this;
Jenrick getting caught from a speech left around is another reason to train yourself to speak ex tempore.
Everyone knows that an unknown but surely significant number of Conservative politicians and members have been hanging on in the hope that Jenrick might become leader and might shift the party into a more Reform-type agenda. They have been in a sort of Reform holding pen, in the Tory party for convenience, in Reform by inclination, waiting to see what happen,
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
Do you mean "What do you think is the most likely result of the next general election?"?
I wonder if it was an options list and they didn't include Ref? Seems like a weird oversight/Ref minimisation strategy (delete as prejudice demands). There are a lot (48%) of 'Don't knows' tho'.
I am sure the 'don't knows' got it right, but I can't believe there isn't at least a few % who are as sure as Leon that Reform are going to win. 'Don't know' does not really capture their fervour. But the mystery is that this is YouGov not some bunch of biased Stalinists.
I think it's just that they're still operating in a pre-2025 world where a forced choice between Lab and Con makes sense.
Everyone knows that an unknown but surely significant number of Conservative politicians and members have been hanging on in the hope that Jenrick might become leader and might shift the party into a more Reform-type agenda. They have been in a sort of Reform holding pen, in the Tory party for convenience, in Reform by inclination, waiting to see what happen,
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I think Jenrick is energetic and effective, and relatively intelligent, but it's hard to escape the conclusion he's a morally bankrupt individual and is utterly untrustworthy.
Sure, but can't anyone answer my question about the Labour equivalent ?
I briefly considered Wes Streeting, but, while he's clearly not dissimilar in the ambition stakes, and certainly doesn't appear immune to political calculation, he really doesn't seem anywhere close to Jenrick's complete lack of discernible principle.
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I think Jenrick is energetic and effective, and relatively intelligent, but it's hard to escape the conclusion he's a morally bankrupt individual and is utterly untrustworthy.
Sure, but can't anyone answer my question about the Labour equivalent ?
I briefly considered Wes Streeting, but, while he's clearly not dissimilar in the ambition stakes, and certainly doesn't appear immune to political calculation, he really doesn't seem anywhere close to Jenrick's complete lack of discernible principle.
Blairite, a Brownite, a Corbynite & a Starmerite walk into a Manchester bar.
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
I agree with the contingency. Most of the noise for the Tories over the last year has come from Jenrick but it has been a lot of whining and, all too often, criticism of the continuation of the policies of the last government he was a part of. The Tories now need to knuckle down and start addressing the real problems we face and finding practical and affordable solutions that can be sold to a deeply cynical public with zero confidence in our political class.
Starting points (in no particular order) would be:
*Perverse disincentives in our tax system that discourage economic activity. * Working out how to increase private sector investment. *Think how the tax and other systems can be used to encourage productivity growth. * Think about how work can always be made to pay over benefits. *start work on how to improve public sector productivity (this is really hard and glib, simplistic answers are not what is required). * Think about what went wrong with Rayner's attempt to increase housing supply and fix it. *Look at what is working in our education system and what is not. * Think about how it is possible to reduce the cost of doing business in this country and how to reduce the regulatory burden without losing essential safeguards. *Work out how we are going to defend ourselves without the American umbrella.
No doubt there are many more but we see, every day, the consequences of coming into government without serious plans. UK plc cannot afford a repeat.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Photocopiers double as printers so that is easy to explain. I was once sworn to secrecy about some papers I'd seen while fixing a printer. Ironically, to this day I've no idea what they were concerned about. Also, the same plot device – a page from a print job being left behind – has just been used in the BBC's hilarious new sitcom, Black Ops.
Reprinting the last page again is also a plot device in Burn Notice which is so old it also features fax machines and flip phones
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
I know we probably don't want to talk about Transgender rights but the long running Darlington Hospital Tribunal case has just found for the women https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c62nwl7j44gt
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
One of those ideas that sounds lovely in principle, but ends up like Minnesota with a bunch of middlemen who know the right words to use and make off with chunks of the cash.
I know we probably don't want to talk about Transgender rights but the long running Darlington Hospital Tribunal case has just found for the women https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c62nwl7j44gt
Makes the Peggie judgment look even more bizarre than it did already.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Photocopiers double as printers so that is easy to explain. I was once sworn to secrecy about some papers I'd seen while fixing a printer. Ironically, to this day I've no idea what they were concerned about. Also, the same plot device – a page from a print job being left behind – has just been used in the BBC's hilarious new sitcom, Black Ops.
And he won’t have mailed out the speech in advance so needed hard copies for the journos at the presser
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
One of those ideas that sounds lovely in principle, but ends up like Minnesota with a bunch of middlemen who know the right words to use and make off with chunks of the cash.
Actual audit and actual inspection is what is needed.
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Canada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Everyone knows that an unknown but surely significant number of Conservative politicians and members have been hanging on in the hope that Jenrick might become leader and might shift the party into a more Reform-type agenda. They have been in a sort of Reform holding pen, in the Tory party for convenience, in Reform by inclination, waiting to see what happen,
To be honest, I am content for pro reform conservatives to defect because Badenoch needs the narrative the conservatives have changed and losing many of those in charge during Johnson and Truss days is not entirely negative
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Imagine being so bad at IT security as to write a defection letter on the company computer.
Do it on a personal computer, at home, with no VPN to the office, and that only ever uses a local printer.
Your IT department finds it really easy to see what you’re doing on their network, even if it’s with your own computer in an environment such as a political party.
You'd think he might have learned something from the Afghan data breach debacle, back when he was immigration minister.
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Camada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Carney is such a different class of leader from any that we have the option of in this country. It's downright depressing.
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
The HSF was used quite a lot for women fleeing domestic violence. They literally left with children and a few possessions. The help was there to give them a start in a new property with something as simple as a bed for the children. Then at the other end of the scale, you had people turning up saying they heard there was 'free money' and could they have some. They were very disappointed when told they didn't qualify and threatened to write to MP/Councillor/papers/Nigel.
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I predict this will all end in tears for Bobby J.
In the Westminster bubble this sort of political treachery might get him attention and be seen as a bit of a power play, but long-term, politics is also about character and I’m not convinced that someone quite so opportunistic is going to have an easy time of it. In addition, if I were Farage I’d be sleeping with one eye open from now on - if you can look at Robert Jenrick and think “there’s a man I trust” now, more fool you.
I'm not 100% sure about that.
Shamelessness, and even transparent shameless treachery, can be a political superpower.
Farage, for example, was able to appear unembarrassed by Jenrick's humiliating unmasking, and give him a welcome more appropriate to the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher in pint sized make form.
What might have been a disastrous introduction of the defector actually went off reasonably well in the circumstances (and allowed the BBC's political correspondent to declare it a major coup for Reform).
And the quality has done Trump little harm over the years.
Trump is an outlier for so many reasons though. He is able to upset the normal order of things in so many ways because he possesses, as much as it grudges many of us to accept, some quite unique talents. But Trump is a once-in-a-generation kind of figure. Robert Jenrick is not Donald Trump.
No, though Jenrick clearly sees himself as the UK JD Vance now to Farage's Trump. The intellectual heft of the populist right to the frontman showman
Vance is a good analogy, I agree.
Bobby is a namby-pamby Centrist compared to Vance
Vance is a deeply unpleasant character, but you feel he probably has a whole bunch of real world skills from hunting and fishing to building a shed and mending his own car. Jenrick can't even hang onto a few pieces of paper or find his own way up the stairs.
Vance, a man from a deprived background with real world skills and who has risen through his own abilities.
And the Dems thought it clever to attack Vance's background instead of his beliefs.
The US Democratic Party in 2024 should be the textbook example of how not to do politics.
What’s worrying is that they appear not to have learned the lesssons of losing to, of all people, Donald Trump again.
What’s even more worrying, is that mid-term success this year will embolden them to double-down on everything that made ‘24 such a failure for the next Presidential elections. Starting with fixing the primaries for the DNC preferred candidate.
Vance currently has a 41% average approval rating ie identical to the 41% Bob Dole got in 1996 which was the lowest voteshare for a GOP nominee in the last 30 years. So unless Vance gets his approval rating up it doesn't really matter who the Democrats nominate in 2028, they still would likely beat Vance if the Vice President is GOP nominee
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Labour? Your post is just deflection from what we are discussing here. Badenoch’s leadership flaws.
And We know by now your “Taliban Tendenceies”. We have a leader and they are supreme.
There’s many things against Kemi leading party into the election. She’s weird. Weird personality type. Ideological weird. She is getting her politics and philosophies from across the pond, not from the Conservative Parties traditions in UK politics, and European Liberal Democracy. Neo Con nonsense like “Cavemen done just fine without a welfare state” and “Trumps right to do the kidnapping in Venezuela - it might have been illegal, but it was morally right” being two hapless gems, each could sink a General Election campaign on their own.
It’s quite right media are focussing on what really happened to lose Jenrick, number 1 in members poll, that includes Badenoch. Was it down to Badenoch’s Psychological Immaturity and personality type it’s happened like this.
Not Little Miss Patience, keep friends close and enemy’s closer type person is she? But that’s important in leadership isn’t it?
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
I agree with the contingency. Most of the noise for the Tories over the last year has come from Jenrick but it has been a lot of whining and, all too often, criticism of the continuation of the policies of the last government he was a part of. The Tories now need to knuckle down and start addressing the real problems we face and finding practical and affordable solutions that can be sold to a deeply cynical public with zero confidence in our political class.
Starting points (in no particular order) would be:
*Perverse disincentives in our tax system that discourage economic activity. * Working out how to increase private sector investment. *Think how the tax and other systems can be used to encourage productivity growth. * Think about how work can always be made to pay over benefits. *start work on how to improve public sector productivity (this is really hard and glib, simplistic answers are not what is required). * Think about what went wrong with Rayner's attempt to increase housing supply and fix it. *Look at what is working in our education system and what is not. * Think about how it is possible to reduce the cost of doing business in this country and how to reduce the regulatory burden without losing essential safeguards. *Work out how we are going to defend ourselves without the American umbrella.
No doubt there are many more but we see, every day, the consequences of coming into government without serious plans. UK plc cannot afford a repeat.
Spot on. I fear this is beyond Badenoch and the Tories, but their best bet now is to try to leave the drama at the door of Reform, and build a sober, serious, small-r reforming package to take to the country in 2029. If they focus on the building blocks, there’ll be people who disagree with them economically, but they can at least point to sensible proposals. They need to explain how they make working people better off and how they restructure the state to work better. At the next GE, they are then selling a plan rather than a pipe dream, against what is likely to be a much more chaotic Reform offering. It might not work, but it’s by far their best chance.
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
One of those ideas that sounds lovely in principle, but ends up like Minnesota with a bunch of middlemen who know the right words to use and make off with chunks of the cash.
Actual audit and actual inspection is what is needed.
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Camada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Carney is such a different class of leader from any that we have the option of in this country. It's downright depressing.
He is a highly educated and experienced liberal free marketeer who is popular and can win, which is a rarity in the western world at the moment, even Macron is now very unpopular.
However some Canadian car factory workers might go off him after this deal
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Camada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Carney is such a different class of leader from any that we have the option of in this country. It's downright depressing.
Was more the circs of the time, but he'll be fondly remembered by mortgage holders during the 2010s tbh (And less fondly by net cash savers )
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I think Jenrick is energetic and effective, and relatively intelligent, but it's hard to escape the conclusion he's a morally bankrupt individual and is utterly untrustworthy.
Sure, but can't anyone answer my question about the Labour equivalent ?
I briefly considered Wes Streeting, but, while he's clearly not dissimilar in the ambition stakes, and certainly doesn't appear immune to political calculation, he really doesn't seem anywhere close to Jenrick's complete lack of discernible principle.
Plenty on the Labour Left would say Keir Starmer and offer as evidence that he got the Leader gig by promising to keep the Corbynite flame a-burning.
Who, then, is the Labour equivalent, harbouring a deep and largely unfounded sense of grievance ?
https://thecritic.co.uk/francis-urquhart-or-baldrick/ I should begin with an apology. Last month, I described Robert Jenrick as “the most shameless man in parliament”. His office complained at the time, but I was stubborn and refused to back down. Well, it’s never too late to say you were wrong. Robert Jenrick is not simply the most shameless man in parliament. He is the most shameless man in Britain, the most shameless man on Earth. Quite possibly the most shameless man in history. It is not simply that Jenrick has no shame. He is like a black hole for shame, sucking in the embarrassment of people around him. Which will be quite handy in his new party, Reform..
..“It’s time for the truth,” he began. Usually this is the moment for a sketchwriter to ask caustically what we’ve been hearing up to now. But Jenrick delivered that comment himself, explaining that he’d been lying to us all about the state of the country for the last decade. “Britain has been in decline. Britain is in decline.” Gosh, Rob, how long have things been like that? “Twenty to thirty years.” OK, and who would you say was in government for a really significant chunk of that time?
On he went, a former Housing Secretary explaining that we hadn’t built enough homes, a former immigration minister complaining about all the immigrants. Not that this was his fault, you understand. He was let down by Boris Johnson and let down by Rishi Sunak. Boy, let down by Boris, eh? If only there’d been some clue to the Johnson character when Jenrick endorsed him to be prime minister.
It was quite hard to know what to say to all this. Jenrick insisted, deadpan, that he was putting personal ambition aside by joining the party currently leading in the polls. He just wanted to serve the country. He made a catty, nasty speech in which he denounced particularly Mel Stride and Priti Patel. What unites these people? They all have or had jobs he thinks he should have got. Another angry failson joins Reform to get the respect he deserves...
I predict this will all end in tears for Bobby J.
In the Westminster bubble this sort of political treachery might get him attention and be seen as a bit of a power play, but long-term, politics is also about character and I’m not convinced that someone quite so opportunistic is going to have an easy time of it. In addition, if I were Farage I’d be sleeping with one eye open from now on - if you can look at Robert Jenrick and think “there’s a man I trust” now, more fool you.
I'm not 100% sure about that.
Shamelessness, and even transparent shameless treachery, can be a political superpower.
Farage, for example, was able to appear unembarrassed by Jenrick's humiliating unmasking, and give him a welcome more appropriate to the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher in pint sized make form.
What might have been a disastrous introduction of the defector actually went off reasonably well in the circumstances (and allowed the BBC's political correspondent to declare it a major coup for Reform).
And the quality has done Trump little harm over the years.
Trump is an outlier for so many reasons though. He is able to upset the normal order of things in so many ways because he possesses, as much as it grudges many of us to accept, some quite unique talents. But Trump is a once-in-a-generation kind of figure. Robert Jenrick is not Donald Trump.
No, though Jenrick clearly sees himself as the UK JD Vance now to Farage's Trump. The intellectual heft of the populist right to the frontman showman
Vance is a good analogy, I agree.
Bobby is a namby-pamby Centrist compared to Vance
Vance is a deeply unpleasant character, but you feel he probably has a whole bunch of real world skills from hunting and fishing to building a shed and mending his own car. Jenrick can't even hang onto a few pieces of paper or find his own way up the stairs.
Vance, a man from a deprived background with real world skills and who has risen through his own abilities.
And the Dems thought it clever to attack Vance's background instead of his beliefs.
The US Democratic Party in 2024 should be the textbook example of how not to do politics.
What’s worrying is that they appear not to have learned the lesssons of losing to, of all people, Donald Trump again.
What’s even more worrying, is that mid-term success this year will embolden them to double-down on everything that made ‘24 such a failure for the next Presidential elections. Starting with fixing the primaries for the DNC preferred candidate.
Vance currently has a 41% average approval rating ie identical to the 41% Bob Dole got in 1996 which was the lowest voteshare for a GOP nominee in the last 30 years. So unless Vance gets his approval rating up it doesn't really matter who the Democrats nominate in 2028, they still would likely beat Vance if the Vice President is GOP nominee
I still think they might go for Rubio, he’s impressing the base with a solid job at State. Vance is still a little young IMHO, he’ll be 44 in 2028, Rubio will be 56.
It’s also going to be worth watching Ron DeSantis, he’s about to be termed out in Florida so will have a couple of years to get himself together after a crap campaign last time out.
Everyone knows that an unknown but surely significant number of Conservative politicians and members have been hanging on in the hope that Jenrick might become leader and might shift the party into a more Reform-type agenda. They have been in a sort of Reform holding pen, in the Tory party for convenience, in Reform by inclination, waiting to see what happen,
To be honest, I am content for pro reform conservatives to defect because Badenoch needs the narrative the conservatives have changed and losing many of those in charge during Johnson and Truss days is not entirely negative
Yes. Frost overlooks the ex Tories (there are lots - look at the polls) who are sitting loose waiting for the Tories to be a sane Conservative party again so that it may be possible to vote for them.
Add to that that a lot of Reform support is not about deep policy convictions (and such special convictions as there are are not acceptable to most people) but about being fed up with all the others. It's fragile.
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
One of those ideas that sounds lovely in principle, but ends up like Minnesota with a bunch of middlemen who know the right words to use and make off with chunks of the cash.
Actual audit and actual inspection is what is needed.
As opposed to the cult of paperwork.
Indeed, but doing that properly for what are going to be mostly £500-£2k transactions, is really expensive as a percentage.
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Camada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Carney is such a different class of leader from any that we have the option of in this country. It's downright depressing.
He is a highly educated and experienced liberal free marketeer who is popular and can win, which is a rarity in the western world at the moment, even Macron is now very unpopular.
However some Canadian car factory workers might go off him after this deal
It's a fair point. There are no simple answers to the complex problems a modern economy faces and there are always trade offs. What is required is the ability to be analytical, objective and focused on the net benefit rather than the pressure group that is shouting loudest. In this case far more American car factory workers are going to be unhappy than Canadians. He is rebalancing Canadian trade away from the US who have proven themselves to be an unreliable and capricious partner. The problem is that if Trump was smart enough to understand that he wouldn't have been so stupid in the first place.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Voters now back an English Parliament by a narrow 3% margin.
2016 Leave voters are in favour by the same 3% margin, 2016 Remain voters are tied, 28% in favour and 28% opposed
'Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Canadian PM Mark Carney have announced lower tariffs, signalling a reset in their countries' relationship after a key meeting in Beijing.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
Good news for my daughter in law who heads up British Columbia tourism with responsibilty for China, Australia and New Zealand and hasn't been able to travel to China due to the dispute with the Chinese
Indeed, will see lots more Chinese vehicles imported by Camada though in return for lower Chinese tariffs on imported Canadian oil, so a total contrast from Trump's tariff war with the Chinese from Carney
Carney is such a different class of leader from any that we have the option of in this country. It's downright depressing.
He is a highly educated and experienced liberal free marketeer who is popular and can win, which is a rarity in the western world at the moment, even Macron is now very unpopular.
However some Canadian car factory workers might go off him after this deal
It's a fair point. There are no simple answers to the complex problems a modern economy faces and there are always trade offs. What is required is the ability to be analytical, objective and focused on the net benefit rather than the pressure group that is shouting loudest. In this case far more American car factory workers are going to be unhappy than Canadians. He is rebalancing Canadian trade away from the US who have proven themselves to be an unreliable and capricious partner. The problem is that if Trump was smart enough to understand that he wouldn't have been so stupid in the first place.
We will see, Trump's tariffs were a big reason why rustbelt factory workers voted for him by such a big margin in 2024.
Though the rising cost of living in the US as a result of his tariffs have also seen Trump's approval ratings decline
I don’t see Reform going up in the polls closer to an election .
More likely as they come under more scrutiny which Farage doesn’t like their poll numbers will drop .
A host of previous controversial positions taken by Farage and so far ignored by the media will get more attention .
Alongside the inherent contradictions within Reform's policies - you can't reduce taxes while keeping your Northern welfare voters happy.
That's only a problem after the election. Before the vote, "cutting waste/woke/green/illegals will pay for it" works.
And after the election might be too late.
The question is how much Reform HQ believe the things they say, as opposed to knowing that they are rubbish. One of the things about Nigel is that he walked away after 2016 and in 2019. Does he want, does he really, really want, the responsibility of being PM?
Yes. The two questions - how to win and how to govern are very different ones. There is a factor which brings them together. The voter is, arguably, fed up and has lost confidence in the process of the link between promise and reality.
Brexit could (and should) have delivered an acceptable (Swiss/Norway style) solution. It didn't due to lack of planning (Cameron), a gulf between who campaigned and who had to deliver and parliament's inability to do its job at the very moment parliament mattered more than government. In brief the elections of 2015, 2017 and 2019 delivered so much less than promised.
2024 was meant to be different. The wise knew that Labour had competence and a plan and after the Ming Vase victory would produce steady, dull, incremental improvement in all the dull areas of government. The wise were wrong.
In 2029 the voter knows these things: a majority government is unlikely, a lack of detailed policy does not imply hidden competence, Labour and Tory have both been let downs. Most (up to 70%) will also have no trust in the competence of Reform and even its supporters are unable to articulate what its fundamental principles might be, as PB regularly demonstrates.
I think, provisionally, that this dismal scene gives the best opportunity for the Tories. If, and only if, they can articulate a clear and sane set of policy objectives which don't do racist dog whistles and separates them from Reform, and pledge not to bring Reform into government whatever happens.
I agree with the contingency. Most of the noise for the Tories over the last year has come from Jenrick but it has been a lot of whining and, all too often, criticism of the continuation of the policies of the last government he was a part of. The Tories now need to knuckle down and start addressing the real problems we face and finding practical and affordable solutions that can be sold to a deeply cynical public with zero confidence in our political class.
Starting points (in no particular order) would be:
*Perverse disincentives in our tax system that discourage economic activity. * Working out how to increase private sector investment. *Think how the tax and other systems can be used to encourage productivity growth. * Think about how work can always be made to pay over benefits. *start work on how to improve public sector productivity (this is really hard and glib, simplistic answers are not what is required). * Think about what went wrong with Rayner's attempt to increase housing supply and fix it. *Look at what is working in our education system and what is not. * Think about how it is possible to reduce the cost of doing business in this country and how to reduce the regulatory burden without losing essential safeguards. *Work out how we are going to defend ourselves without the American umbrella.
No doubt there are many more but we see, every day, the consequences of coming into government without serious plans. UK plc cannot afford a repeat.
You come across as a fiscal Conservative at heart, but you can't be without a plan that says (i) what ball park you want net immigration to be in (ii) the steps you are going to take to get there (iii) if you select a very low net figure, how you are going structure the labour market to deal with that.
Getting rid of a bunch of fantasists for whom dealing with reality is dangerous leftism can be very good for Tories.
In truth, there is a difference between dealing with reality and being captured by orthodoxy, and you should be able to do the former without automatically being regarded as a wet. If Kemi can pull the trick, the reality-fantasy axis can be more important in countering Reform than a strict centre right-right axis.
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Full tables for that here. There are also some suplimental questions including ones on the Death Penalty, Scottish Independence from an English and Welsh perspective and an English parliament - though nothing particularly surprising in any of the results.
Any labour supporter reading the tables must look on in dismay at the results
I must have missed something, or there is a real oddity on page 9. According to the results, no-one thinks the result of the next election will be a Reform government. How can this be?
I think the answer is that this is a regular longstanding question that they track over time, and any change in wording destroys the data continuity. So they’ll be most reluctant to do it, and hope those expecting some other option will duck all the set options ?
They doubtless cross correlate it with other stuff including panellists subsequent changes in voting intentions - testing hypotheses like the one where what people think will happen can be a better guide to what will, or what they do, than straight VI. For example I would *guess* that Labour VIs who say they think Labour will win are more solid than those who give a Labour VI but think the Tories will?
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Imagine being so bad at IT security as to write a defection letter on the company computer.
Do it on a personal computer, at home, with no VPN to the office, and that only ever uses a local printer.
Your IT department finds it really easy to see what you’re doing on their network, even if it’s with your own computer in an environment such as a political party.
You'd think he might have learned something from the Afghan data breach debacle, back when he was immigration minister.
Indeed, had forgotten that one.
People being crap with computers pays my rent, so I’m not complaining too loudly…
I have no idea how yesterday's events will affect the polling but for this conservative the party without Jenrick is a much better place and Kemi's action were spot on
As far as a labour defection is concerned I would watc Graham Stringer
A helpful reminder that up until yesterday morning Bobby J was a key member of Kemi's Shadow Cabinet, so clearly she didn't hold the view that he was a worthless piece of shit until mid morning yesterday.
In politics you keep your friends close, and enemy’s closer?
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
Re your last paragraph, to you maybe but others would have seen a leader acting decisively and confidently
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21% Reform 14% Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
Labour? Your post is just deflection from what we are discussing here. Badenoch’s leadership flaws.
And We know by now your “Taliban Tendenceies”. We have a leader and they are supreme.
There’s many things against Kemi leading party into the election. She’s weird. Weird personality type. Ideological weird. She is getting her politics and philosophies from across the pond, not from the Conservative Parties traditions in UK politics, and European Liberal Democracy. Neo Con nonsense like “Cavemen done just fine without a welfare state” and “Trumps right to do the kidnapping in Venezuela - it might have been illegal, but it was morally right” being two hapless gems, each could sink a General Election campaign on their own.
It’s quite right media are focussing on what really happened to lose Jenrick, number 1 in members poll, that includes Badenoch. Was it down to Badenoch’s Psychological Immaturity and personality type it’s happened like this.
Not Little Miss Patience, keep friends close and enemy’s closer type person is she? But that’s important in leadership isn’t it?
In your view but other views are available and we do not agree
'A new funding scheme will give access to emergency cash for people on low incomes across England.
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
One of those ideas that sounds lovely in principle, but ends up like Minnesota with a bunch of middlemen who know the right words to use and make off with chunks of the cash.
Talking of which, it is suggested the US (or maybe just Trump) is banking the proceeds from his Venezuelan piracy into bank accounts in Qatar?
Comments
The event of a Reform minority government is likely to be a car crash, and one that makes the Starmer or Truss governments look stable and popular.
The Tories would be wise to stand clear of the debris as that clown car goes over the cliff, though perhaps voting for the odd bill that isn't completely deranged.
A further GE would then happen and they would be able to pick up the mantle of the sensible right.
ii) It's likely flattering to reality.
iii) Even this sort of AI slop is killing artists and putting your RAM sky high in price.
iv) When this is done to Reform's opponents; gander, goose..
This intro to David Frost's Telegraph column sums up so much that is wrong with British politics.
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mcjpjzc2ad2v
Reform also get a reasonable vote amongst men under 30 but not women under 30.
Even at the last general election Reform won 12% of men aged 18-24 and 15% of men aged 25-49 but only 6% of women aged 18-24 and just 10% of women aged 25-49.
Kemi should therefore focus on ambitious young women working in the private sector in particular
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/world/africa/renfrew-christie-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ElA.l_uO.quxTSV0lHbGV&smid=url-share
..After attending the University of the Witwatersrand, he received a scholarship to Oxford, which enabled him to further his quest. For his doctoral dissertation, he chose to study South Africa’s history of electrification, “so I could get into the electricity supply commission’s library and archives, and work out how much electricity they were using to enrich uranium,” he told the BBC.
From there, it was possible to calculate how many nuclear bombs could be produced. Six such bombs had reportedly been made by the end of apartheid in the early 1990s; the United States had initially aided the regime’s nuclear program. Thanks to the system of forced labor, South Africa “made the cheapest electricity in the world,” Dr. Christie said, which aided the process of uranium enrichment and made the country’s nuclear program a magnet for Western support. (South Africa also benefited from its status as a Cold War ally against the Soviet Union.)
Dr. Christie turned his findings over to the A.N.C. Instead of opting for the safety of England — there was the possibility of a lecturer position at Oxford — he returned home and was arrested by South Africa’s Security Police. He had been betrayed by Craig Williamson, a fellow student at Witwatersrand, who had become a spy for the security services and was later granted amnesty by South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
After 48 hours of torture, Dr. Christie wrote a forced confession — “the best thing I ever wrote,” he later told the BBC, noting that he had made sure the confession included “all my recommendations to the African National Congress” about the best way to sabotage Koeberg and other facilities.
“And, gloriously, the judge read it out in court,” Dr. Christie added. “So my recommendations went from the judge’s mouth” straight to the A.N.C.
Two years later, in December 1982, Koeberg was bombed by white A.N.C. operatives who had gotten jobs at the facility. They followed Dr. Christie’s instructions to the letter.
“Of all the achievements of the armed struggle, the bombing of Koeberg is there,” Dr. Christie said at the 2023 conference, emphasizing its importance. “Frankly, when I got to hearing of it, it made being in prison much, much easier to tolerate.”
SC state Rep. RJ May — ANOTHER Trump-supporting politician who regularly accused drag queens and transgender people of harming kids — was sentenced to 17.5 years in federal prison on Wednesday after…
Wait for it…
…pleading guilty to 5 counts of distributing child sex abuse material.
https://x.com/DittiePE/status/2011769193201385835
If Farage is happy to openly tell us that his idol is someone who is developing paramilitary forces and regularly questioning the basis of elections, we should believe him. As if that wasn't enough. several of his base and representatives have also been open about their own authoritarian sympathies too, as MoonRabbit outlined a list of earlier.
I got told off for quoting a sub sample of 2000 people - it's not therefore unreasonable to call you out for relying on them.
By the way, IF you want to play that game, Find Out Now's latest sub sample of 18-29 year olds has the Conservatives at 5%.
Even when Trump tried his coup in January 2021 it was defeated in the end.
Jenrick's little speech yesterday, for instance, was a classic of ressentiment and the authoritarian style.
Yougov by contrast now has the Conservatives up to 13% with 18-24s in their latest poll compared to just 8% with under 25s in 2024.
Amongst over 65s though the Conservative vote is down from 42% in 2024 to just 30% now with Reform up to 29% with over 65s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Results
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_Results_260112_w.pdf
Are we expected to believe draft of his leaving speech was accidentally left on a photocopier, found by the right person to recognise it as a smoking gun, this is first whips and leader knew? Why would such a smoking gun even being photocopied in digital age?
It didn’t come from photocopier, it followed the long FaceTime Bobby and Kemi had this week. Jenrick is most popular Tory cabinet minister in most recent ConservativeHome poll. Of course there were efforts to talk him out of defecting, and everything in Kemi’s power to keep him, as there has to be some concern how many members and voters he takes with him.
Far from looking confident as the cartoonists supporters have it, in her appearances yesterday Badenoch looks rattled and scared to death.
What’s worrying is that they appear not to have learned the lesssons of losing to, of all people, Donald Trump again.
What’s even more worrying, is that mid-term success this year will embolden them to double-down on everything that made ‘24 such a failure for the next Presidential elections. Starting with fixing the primaries for the DNC preferred candidate.
Also todays YouGov
Best party on economy
Conservatives 21%
Reform 14%
Labour 12%
Labour in this poll is as bad or even worse than some Corbyn periods
And not notice them when they're gone.
I don't doubt there'll be a Labour MP with gambling debts that can be paid off as a quid pro quo...
Michael Gove has sent his star columnist to Bangkok to lose weight?
Avoiding extinction at least looks possible. IMO the next stage involves being clearly different from Reform both in popular media terms and in competence and policy reality. The Tories need to keep saying stuff on the Mail/Sun level, keep talking intelligently to the opinion formers and look competent.
One particular thing seems to me long term important. Reform's image remains, whatever the reality, that it is a bit dog whistley on Islam/Muslims and so on. An awesome reality awaits: the Islamic community in this country is several millions strong; the great majority live lives of decency and devotion, hard work and family cohesion. It isn't going away. Culturally they are the 21st century version of the 19th century nonconformists. They have yet to be fully accepted in the political process as exactly what they are. The Tories can distinguish themselves from Reform by fully embracing this fact, in much the same way that the fact there are four million Roman Catholics is just a politically fairly boring fact of life, though once upon a time they were feared and execrated.
Do it on a personal computer, at home, with no VPN to the office, and that only ever uses a local printer.
Your IT department finds it really easy to see what you’re doing on their network, even if it’s with your own computer in an environment such as a political party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgezrgdq4wlo
The E.U., in fact, is the party building greater legislative safeguards against the Musks of this world, even if, without the integration of British tech, it may not be able to compete with them, for both our sakes.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/2011909869742219421
Do journalists really think that politicians speak to them under oath? If so, they have even bigger egos than I thought.
I wonder if it was an options list and they didn't include Ref? Seems like a weird oversight/Ref minimisation strategy (delete as prejudice demands). There are a lot (48%) of 'Don't knows' tho'.
Jenrick getting caught from a speech left around is another reason to train yourself to speak ex tempore.
https://bsky.app/profile/joxley.jmoxley.co.uk/post/3mchjeljbbs2d
It requires effort to put the practice in, it requires knowing your stuff, but it's not that difficult.
Teachers do it all the flipping time.
Everyone knows that an unknown but surely significant number of Conservative politicians and members have been hanging on in the hope that Jenrick might become leader and might shift the party into a more Reform-type agenda. They have been in a sort of Reform holding pen, in the Tory party for convenience, in Reform by inclination, waiting to see what happen,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/15/forget-about-tory-reform-pacts-fight-to-death/
There's quite a few who fit.
I briefly considered Wes Streeting, but, while he's clearly not dissimilar in the ambition stakes, and certainly doesn't appear immune to political calculation, he really doesn't seem anywhere close to Jenrick's complete lack of discernible principle.
China is expected to lower levies on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by 1 March, while Ottawa has agreed to tax Chinese electric vehicles at the most-favoured-nation rate, 6.1%, Carney told reporters.
The deal is a breakthrough after years of strained ties and tit-for-tat levies. Xi hailed the "turnaround" in their relationship but it is also a win for Carney, the first Canadian leader to visit China in nearly a decade.
He has been trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, his country's biggest trading partner, following the uncertainty caused by Trump's on-again-off-again tariffs.
The deal could also see more Chinese investments in Canada, right on America's doorstep.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy59pvkqvl5o
The Crisis and Resilience Fund beginning at the start of April will provide £1bn annually for the next three years.
People will be able to apply for emergency funds through their local council, whether or not they currently receive benefits.
The new rules say councils can give money to people in financial shock where there is "a sudden, unexpected expense or drop in income", like a broken boiler, the loss of a job or to prevent people from entering crisis.
It is a replacement for the temporary Household Support Fund which had been extended on a rolling basis since it was set up in 2021, but was due to finish at the end of March.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2l74eykxdo
The barman asks, “What are you having, Andy?”
Starting points (in no particular order) would be:
*Perverse disincentives in our tax system that discourage economic activity.
* Working out how to increase private sector investment.
*Think how the tax and other systems can be used to encourage productivity growth.
* Think about how work can always be made to pay over benefits.
*start work on how to improve public sector productivity (this is really hard and glib, simplistic answers are not what is required).
* Think about what went wrong with Rayner's attempt to increase housing supply and fix it.
*Look at what is working in our education system and what is not.
* Think about how it is possible to reduce the cost of doing business in this country and how to reduce the regulatory burden without losing essential safeguards.
*Work out how we are going to defend ourselves without the American umbrella.
No doubt there are many more but we see, every day, the consequences of coming into government without serious plans. UK plc cannot afford a repeat.
As opposed to the cult of paperwork.
https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/j-d-vance
And We know by now your “Taliban Tendenceies”. We have a leader and they are supreme.
There’s many things against Kemi leading party into the election. She’s weird. Weird personality type. Ideological weird. She is getting her politics and philosophies from across the pond, not from the Conservative Parties traditions in UK politics, and European Liberal Democracy. Neo Con nonsense like “Cavemen done just fine without a welfare state” and “Trumps right to do the kidnapping in Venezuela - it might have been illegal, but it was morally right” being two hapless gems, each could sink a General Election campaign on their own.
It’s quite right media are focussing on what really happened to lose Jenrick, number 1 in members poll, that includes Badenoch. Was it down to Badenoch’s Psychological Immaturity and personality type it’s happened like this.
Not Little Miss Patience, keep friends close and enemy’s closer type person is she? But that’s important in leadership isn’t it?
However some Canadian car factory workers might go off him after this deal
It’s also going to be worth watching Ron DeSantis, he’s about to be termed out in Florida so will have a couple of years to get himself together after a crap campaign last time out.
Add to that that a lot of Reform support is not about deep policy convictions (and such special convictions as there are are not acceptable to most people) but about being fed up with all the others. It's fragile.
NEW THREAD
2016 Leave voters are in favour by the same 3% margin, 2016 Remain voters are tied, 28% in favour and 28% opposed
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_Main_Political_Tracker_Survey_Rotation14_sr_24.pdf(p21)
Though the rising cost of living in the US as a result of his tariffs have also seen Trump's approval ratings decline
Getting rid of a bunch of fantasists for whom dealing with reality is dangerous leftism can be very good for Tories.
In truth, there is a difference between dealing with reality and being captured by orthodoxy, and you should be able to do the former without automatically being regarded as a wet. If Kemi can pull the trick, the reality-fantasy axis can be more important in countering Reform than a strict centre right-right axis.
They doubtless cross correlate it with other stuff including panellists subsequent changes in voting intentions - testing hypotheses like the one where what people think will happen can be a better guide to what will, or what they do, than straight VI. For example I would *guess* that Labour VIs who say they think Labour will win are more solid than those who give a Labour VI but think the Tories will?
People being crap with computers pays my rent, so I’m not complaining too loudly…
Why is posting a new poll deflection ?