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Trump admits his polling is very bad – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    edited December 12
    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, I was going to post last night but didn't get round to it.

    America stands at a crossroads. We can see that the regime has two choices - fall next year, or embed itself for the long haul.

    If they follow the constitution then MAGA loses control, a lot of them go to jail, and perhaps America will once again align itself with democracy instead of with dictators. But that means various people taking the brave pill and doing the right thing.

    Or they do the other thing. The naughty list of media becomes the banned list. The opinion polls go the way of the economic measures he's dispensed with. And he provokes violence in cities by sending in blackshirts from out of state to create the excuse to send in more troops, arrest officials and "postpone" elections.

    In either case, the World Cup will be symbolic of the state of things. A bloated absurdity of a tournament where officials want 5 years of penis size measurements and a pledge of fealty to the fuhrer before they let you into a country where tickets for the tournament cost $fuckoff.

    I remember World Cup Italia 90, where for Egypt games there were a lot of Egyptian Navy personnel filling the seats. This time they will fill the seats with stormtroopers. With normals arrested at the end of the quarter...

    Mike Pence was a horrible man who nodded along to many horrible things between 2016 and 2020. But at the vital moment he stood firm and did the right thing.

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.
    Pence isn’t a horrible man. He’s a committed evangelical Christian and you probably don’t agree with many of his positions. But he’s not a “horrible man” any more than Sadiq Khan is.
    I can cope with the concept that many evangelical "Christians" are horrible because they seem to have a bible that only has bits of Genesis and Leviticus. All that woke Jesus stuff can get right out. We're about to see the same from the Reform "Christians" where Jesus opened the temple to the shirt sellers and told thy neighbour to fuck off from whence they came.

    As for Pence, his replacement is a man who called the President a Nazi and then decided that he wanted to be Rudolf Hess. Could Vance oust the regime? Sure - to install himself as leader.

    The big question remains Trump. We can say pretty confidently that he has serious health conditions. Will one of these incapacitate him and thus force a change? Or like previous mad dictators does he just step it up?
    That makes them wrong, not bad people.

    Trump was rightly criticised for describing Khan as “horrible” and “vicious”. Others should be held to the same standard
    There are a lot of bad ideas, but very few bad people once we get past the Putins of this world.

    Yes Trump does sometimes go too far with his language, and American political discourse in general is much more coarse than elsewhere, even before the current incumbent takes it to another level.
    He doesn't seem too popular in Ukraine either.

    While latest polls show Ukrainians want nothing to do with the Trump/Kushner treason weasel "deal" to lick Putin's ass at the expense of millions of Ukrainians, he blatantly lies here and says they "love the deal" and that it's only Zelensky that's the problem.

    Trump is Putin's whore.

    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1999393164386254889
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    edited December 12
    "Highland, Fort William and Ardnamurchan

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    LD gain from SNP"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    There's some analysis out that contrary to common belief, the Harris campaign was actually quite effective. Where they went head-to-head with Trump in marginal states they were able to pull back. The problem was they weren't able to pull back enough with an electorate that was disinclined to give the Democrats time of day.
    Also virtually every incumbent in every liberal democracy was either being replaced or at least losing ground. The unpopularity of our governments cannot be solely down to them being crap, the economic conditions have a bigger influence than candidate quality and capability.
    Cannot be emphasised enough. It's a delusion that economies in an electoral timeframe perform principally according to the talents of whoever happens to be in government. But politics (with the connivance of politicians) operates on that basis. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.

    This is why I'm not writing off MAGA in the US yet. The American economy is an awesome beast and I can perfectly well imagine it picking up and motoring under Trump despite everything. If that happens his ratings will almost certainly rise and both the midterms and 28 could be anything but a cruise for the Dems.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rubio orders return to Times New Roman font over 'wasteful' Calibri"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgkez3367xmo

    A rare case of agreement between the USA government and right thinking people.

    A law imposing the death penalty for use of Comic Sans would be even better. Especially in primary schools.
    As the Romans allegedly once said Straight is great, curvy is pervy. All right thinking people use TNR for all official documents. It is clear, it is clean, it is less smudgy and it is right.
    Arial is nice, so is Apsos
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331
    edited December 12
    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page
  • ‘Crushed nuts?….No arthritis.’
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,302
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, I was going to post last night but didn't get round to it.

    America stands at a crossroads. We can see that the regime has two choices - fall next year, or embed itself for the long haul.

    If they follow the constitution then MAGA loses control, a lot of them go to jail, and perhaps America will once again align itself with democracy instead of with dictators. But that means various people taking the brave pill and doing the right thing.

    Or they do the other thing. The naughty list of media becomes the banned list. The opinion polls go the way of the economic measures he's dispensed with. And he provokes violence in cities by sending in blackshirts from out of state to create the excuse to send in more troops, arrest officials and "postpone" elections.

    In either case, the World Cup will be symbolic of the state of things. A bloated absurdity of a tournament where officials want 5 years of penis size measurements and a pledge of fealty to the fuhrer before they let you into a country where tickets for the tournament cost $fuckoff.

    I remember World Cup Italia 90, where for Egypt games there were a lot of Egyptian Navy personnel filling the seats. This time they will fill the seats with stormtroopers. With normals arrested at the end of the quarter...

    Mike Pence was a horrible man who nodded along to many horrible things between 2016 and 2020. But at the vital moment he stood firm and did the right thing.

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.
    Pence isn’t a horrible man. He’s a committed evangelical Christian and you probably don’t agree with many of his positions. But he’s not a “horrible man” any more than Sadiq Khan is.
    I can cope with the concept that many evangelical "Christians" are horrible because they seem to have a bible that only has bits of Genesis and Leviticus. All that woke Jesus stuff can get right out. We're about to see the same from the Reform "Christians" where Jesus opened the temple to the shirt sellers and told thy neighbour to fuck off from whence they came.

    As for Pence, his replacement is a man who called the President a Nazi and then decided that he wanted to be Rudolf Hess. Could Vance oust the regime? Sure - to install himself as leader.

    The big question remains Trump. We can say pretty confidently that he has serious health conditions. Will one of these incapacitate him and thus force a change? Or like previous mad dictators does he just step it up?
    That makes them wrong, not bad people.

    Trump was rightly criticised for describing Khan as “horrible” and “vicious”. Others should be held to the same standard
    There are a lot of bad ideas, but very few bad people once we get past the Putins of this world.

    Yes Trump does sometimes go too far with his language, and American political discourse in general is much more coarse than elsewhere, even before the current incumbent takes it to another level.
    He doesn't seem too popular in Ukraine either.

    While latest polls show Ukrainians want nothing to do with the Trump/Kushner treason weasel "deal" to lick Putin's ass at the expense of millions of Ukrainians, he blatantly lies here and says they "love the deal" and that it's only Zelensky that's the problem.

    Trump is Putin's whore.

    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1999393164386254889
    Not sure you should be posting that.

    Prostitutes may consider it slanderous.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,510
    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    I’m surprised the SNP didn’t win that after transfers. Who was Lynch and where did their transfers go? Are Labour transfers going to Reform or the SNP or nowhere?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372
    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rubio orders return to Times New Roman font over 'wasteful' Calibri"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgkez3367xmo

    A rare case of agreement between the USA government and right thinking people.

    A law imposing the death penalty for use of Comic Sans would be even better. Especially in primary schools.
    As the Romans allegedly once said Straight is great, curvy is pervy. All right thinking people use TNR for all official documents. It is clear, it is clean, it is less smudgy and it is right.
    It's old fashioned in appearance, and though OK in printed stuff, is a bit crap in the new digital world.
    Calibri is the Microsoft font, so while Rubio is wasting a lot of time, effort, and taxpayers cash in making the change, I won't mourn it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,109
    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Cicero said:

    Fishing said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read, the Economist leader, for those of you able to access Economist articles (limited monthly access or £):

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/12/11/can-anyone-stop-europes-populist-right

    The doctrines of the populist right do indeed contain much to condemn. Yet talking about them in apocalyptic terms is doomed to fail. For their own sake, and for the good of their countries, mainstream politicians and their supporters urgently need a different approach.

    If demonisation is failing, what is the alternative? The answer starts with that impatience for change which the populist right harnesses so successfully—and which this newspaper shares.

    For Britain, France and Germany, European economic integration is the most obvious source of growth. Yet the populists are set on a collision course with the European Union, which would lead to growth-destroying degradation of the single market. On other issues, populists latch onto discontent, but propose solutions that are foolish.

    If mainstream politicians spend it shrilly demonising populists, they will doubtless make themselves feel better, but they will not help their countries. They would be wiser to subject governments-in-waiting to the democratic scrutiny they deserve.

    The Economist is completely wrong - European economic integration might do a tiny bit to boost economic growth, but it be lost in the noise, especially for this country. It would inevitably focus on manufactured goods, which are not where we have a comparative advantage, because liberalising services is much more difficult, both practically and politically, and services are less likely to be traded. Trade with the EU is a relatively small part of our economy - exports to the EU are only about 13% of GDP. And liberalising trade with the EU comes with all sorts of constraints on sovereignty, which are exactly what made Brexit more than a fringe movement in the first place, and was perhaps the second biggest factor, after immigration, in the rise of UKIP/Reform.

    The most obvious way to boost growth is to focus on competitiveness throughout the economy - deregulating product and labour markets, getting malingerers off welfare and reducing the size of the public sector. Just cutting size of the state by 3% of GDP, reversing the planned increases since Labour took power, should increase GDP by 2-3% over the long run, more if it's done in a pro-growth way, and much more than any realistic boost from closer ties with the EU, whatever the more absurd studies say.
    I have been a subscriber since school and I am on the brink of cancelling my subscription to The Economist. The New "Insider" video interviews are pathetic- the interview with Bannon might as well have been done by Russell Harty it was so weak. The analysis of UK politics used to be a High Table discussion of principles, but is now the same kind of shallow tactical analysis that you can find anywhere- including here- and is increasingly an insult to the intelligence of the reader..
    May I apologise to you on behalf of us all.
    I'll try to up my game.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,164
    edited December 12
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    There's some analysis out that contrary to common belief, the Harris campaign was actually quite effective. Where they went head-to-head with Trump in marginal states they were able to pull back. The problem was they weren't able to pull back enough with an electorate that was disinclined to give the Democrats time of day.
    Also virtually every incumbent in every liberal democracy was either being replaced or at least losing ground. The unpopularity of our governments cannot be solely down to them being crap, the economic conditions have a bigger influence than candidate quality and capability.
    Cannot be emphasised enough. It's a delusion that economies in an electoral timeframe perform principally according to the talents of whoever happens to be in government. But politics (with the connivance of politicians) operates on that basis. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.

    This is why I'm not writing off MAGA in the US yet. The American economy is an awesome beast and I can perfectly well imagine it picking up and motoring under Trump despite everything. If that happens his ratings will almost certainly rise and both the midterms and 28 could be anything but a cruise for the Dems.
    If the economy does ok, the vast majority of growth is going to the top 1% under Trump so the voters won't feel it. Hence the scapegoating of anyone and everyone to blame for anything and everything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,665
    Meanwhile, the US Navy has aircraft called Growlers

    https://x.com/i/status/1998853971507818634
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090

    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    I’m surprised the SNP didn’t win that after transfers. Who was Lynch and where did their transfers go? Are Labour transfers going to Reform or the SNP or nowhere?
    I believe that Labour transfers broke for Reform.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818

    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    I’m surprised the SNP didn’t win that after transfers. Who was Lynch and where did their transfers go? Are Labour transfers going to Reform or the SNP or nowhere?
    Good questions, looking forward to seeing the transfers data.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,109

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    Maybe but remember when Herbert Hoover lost in 1932 to FDR, Hoover the last President as pro tariff and protectionist as Trump, the Republicans didn't win another presidential election for 20 years. Even then only with the very moderate IKE in 1952
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,437
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Given this is a new thread but this is important for TSE I will post this again.

    Definitive proof that Die Hard is a Christmas Movie

    If you watch Die Hard straight after Love Actually, Alan Rickman will be punished for what he did to Emma Thompson.

    As a man of the people I speak for the nation.


    So you think Love Actually is a Summer Movie?
    shit one more like, total twaddle
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,243
    Indiana GOP lawmakers have refused to bow to Trump's demand they redraw districts for 2026.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    The nearest alternative mafioso hotspot?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,665
    edited December 12
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    There's some analysis out that contrary to common belief, the Harris campaign was actually quite effective. Where they went head-to-head with Trump in marginal states they were able to pull back. The problem was they weren't able to pull back enough with an electorate that was disinclined to give the Democrats time of day.
    Also virtually every incumbent in every liberal democracy was either being replaced or at least losing ground. The unpopularity of our governments cannot be solely down to them being crap, the economic conditions have a bigger influence than candidate quality and capability.
    Cannot be emphasised enough. It's a delusion that economies in an electoral timeframe perform principally according to the talents of whoever happens to be in government. But politics (with the connivance of politicians) operates on that basis. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.

    This is why I'm not writing off MAGA in the US yet. The American economy is an awesome beast and I can perfectly well imagine it picking up and motoring under Trump despite everything. If that happens his ratings will almost certainly rise and both the midterms and 28 could be anything but a cruise for the Dems.
    If the economy does ok, the vast majority of growth is going to the top 1% under Trump so the voters won't feel it. Hence the scapegoating of anyone and everyone to blame for anything and everything.
    Yes but inflation might come down, ditto interest rates, bit of a boom gets going, some feelgood, jobs, payrises, deficit fuelled and unsustainable but, you know, who cares. It's the nightmare scenario and I give it a 25% chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,109
    edited December 12

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either way the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    Indeed. It's actually my favourite European city.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    I visited Pompeii a couple of years ago. This time, I want to do Herculaneum and Paestum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    HYUFD said:

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
    Doesn't stack up with the assumptions that underpinned her Budget last month. Ooops.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    In any event, the new rules are new.
    We still have to see if the change is significant from the normie traveller's POV.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860

    Indiana GOP lawmakers have refused to bow to Trump's demand they redraw districts for 2026.

    Trump managed to really piss off one of the senior Republicans there by casually using the "retard" word - said senior Republican having a Downs syndrome child. Ooops.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,095
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    And my tour of the civil war battlefields. Its sad.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413

    Meanwhile, the US Navy has aircraft called Growlers

    https://x.com/i/status/1998853971507818634

    Has for a decade or so; successor to the Prowler.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,665
    edited December 12
    Interesting to see that Sharron Davies is to be made a peer as she is quite vociferous in supporting women's rights in sport, ie against transwomen being able to compete as women
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    Sympathies to football fans trying to find accommodation in Boston, MA.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,102

    Shocked

    Major investigation into GMP officers and staff making 'non-legitimate' contact with sex workers

    EXCLUSIVE: Three people have been sacked and another 10 are being investigated amid a probe into 'non-legitimate contact' with sex workers, the Manchester Evening News can reveal


    A major investigation into Greater Manchester Police officers and staff allegedly making 'non-legitimate' contact with sex workers has been launched. Three people have been sacked and another 10 are being investigated by the force's Anti-Corruption Unit.

    The probe into 'non-legitimate' police contact with sex workers was triggered by the case of Inspector Toby Knight. The disgraced cop scheduled hundreds of meetings with sex workers on his force-issued phone, including some while he was on duty.

    After serving nearly 30 years with GMP, Knight retired in May this year, the day before a gross misconduct hearing concluded that had he still been serving he would have been dismissed without notice.

    The force said eight police officers - including a Superintendent who has been suspended - and two staff members are under investigation. Knight and two staff members have already been dismissed. The two sacked civilian staff members have not been named.

    Four of those under investigation have been served with misconduct papers. Bosses do not believe the alleged actions of the 13 people are linked, other than by the nature of their alleged behaviour.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/major-investigation-gmp-officers-staff-33039651#

    I think they should ban people who are under active investigation from retiring without sign off from a senior officer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372
    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    Fishing said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read, the Economist leader, for those of you able to access Economist articles (limited monthly access or £):

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/12/11/can-anyone-stop-europes-populist-right

    The doctrines of the populist right do indeed contain much to condemn. Yet talking about them in apocalyptic terms is doomed to fail. For their own sake, and for the good of their countries, mainstream politicians and their supporters urgently need a different approach.

    If demonisation is failing, what is the alternative? The answer starts with that impatience for change which the populist right harnesses so successfully—and which this newspaper shares.

    For Britain, France and Germany, European economic integration is the most obvious source of growth. Yet the populists are set on a collision course with the European Union, which would lead to growth-destroying degradation of the single market. On other issues, populists latch onto discontent, but propose solutions that are foolish.

    If mainstream politicians spend it shrilly demonising populists, they will doubtless make themselves feel better, but they will not help their countries. They would be wiser to subject governments-in-waiting to the democratic scrutiny they deserve.

    The Economist is completely wrong - European economic integration might do a tiny bit to boost economic growth, but it be lost in the noise, especially for this country. It would inevitably focus on manufactured goods, which are not where we have a comparative advantage, because liberalising services is much more difficult, both practically and politically, and services are less likely to be traded. Trade with the EU is a relatively small part of our economy - exports to the EU are only about 13% of GDP. And liberalising trade with the EU comes with all sorts of constraints on sovereignty, which are exactly what made Brexit more than a fringe movement in the first place, and was perhaps the second biggest factor, after immigration, in the rise of UKIP/Reform.

    The most obvious way to boost growth is to focus on competitiveness throughout the economy - deregulating product and labour markets, getting malingerers off welfare and reducing the size of the public sector. Just cutting size of the state by 3% of GDP, reversing the planned increases since Labour took power, should increase GDP by 2-3% over the long run, more if it's done in a pro-growth way, and much more than any realistic boost from closer ties with the EU, whatever the more absurd studies say.
    I have been a subscriber since school and I am on the brink of cancelling my subscription to The Economist. The New "Insider" video interviews are pathetic- the interview with Bannon might as well have been done by Russell Harty it was so weak. The analysis of UK politics used to be a High Table discussion of principles, but is now the same kind of shallow tactical analysis that you can find anywhere- including here- and is increasingly an insult to the intelligence of the reader..
    May I apologise to you on behalf of us all.
    I'll try to up my game.
    Yes let's have a bit more High Table commentary on here. We're well capable of it. I'll lead the way once I've had a sandwich.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860

    Meanwhile, the US Navy has aircraft called Growlers

    https://x.com/i/status/1998853971507818634

    Are they scarily hairy?
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331
    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
    Yes, its a bit "plague on all your houses" at the moment. The seats were notionally Lib Dem and Lab respectively, I think the SNP will be more concerned about the Whitburn result
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,109
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    There's some analysis out that contrary to common belief, the Harris campaign was actually quite effective. Where they went head-to-head with Trump in marginal states they were able to pull back. The problem was they weren't able to pull back enough with an electorate that was disinclined to give the Democrats time of day.
    Also virtually every incumbent in every liberal democracy was either being replaced or at least losing ground. The unpopularity of our governments cannot be solely down to them being crap, the economic conditions have a bigger influence than candidate quality and capability.
    Cannot be emphasised enough. It's a delusion that economies in an electoral timeframe perform principally according to the talents of whoever happens to be in government. But politics (with the connivance of politicians) operates on that basis. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.

    This is why I'm not writing off MAGA in the US yet. The American economy is an awesome beast and I can perfectly well imagine it picking up and motoring under Trump despite everything. If that happens his ratings will almost certainly rise and both the midterms and 28 could be anything but a cruise for the Dems.
    If the economy does ok, the vast majority of growth is going to the top 1% under Trump so the voters won't feel it. Hence the scapegoating of anyone and everyone to blame for anything and everything.
    Yes but inflation might come down, ditto interest rates, bit of a boom gets going, some feelgood, jobs, payrises, deficit fuelled and unsustainable but, you know, who cares. It's the nightmare scenario and I give it a 25% chance.
    Inflation won't come down while Trump has his tariffs
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331

    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    I’m surprised the SNP didn’t win that after transfers. Who was Lynch and where did their transfers go? Are Labour transfers going to Reform or the SNP or nowhere?
    Not seen the transfers yet but Reform had a bigger lead in Whitburn than Stranraer a fortnight ago (led by 80). A lot of votes would be non transferable, but i dont know much about weightings
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,305
    Lib Dem gain in Highlands.
  • DoctorG said:

    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
    Yes, its a bit "plague on all your houses" at the moment. The seats were notionally Lib Dem and Lab respectively, I think the SNP will be more concerned about the Whitburn result
    The significance there is the fact voters united against the SNP rather than Reform. That is certainly notable.
    The Highlands result was a continuation of the Lib Dems restoring that area as the stronghold it once was.
    Also a decent night for the Cons in holding two wards nicely against Reform attacks. They lost elsewhere but this is the first sign of a recovery for them.
    The LIb Dems beat a Con in Devon where Reform would have hoped to win.
    Reform again did very well generally - just not as well as in May.
    Should any Lab partizans remain on the board you might like to give this week's results a miss (well - just about every week's results to be honest)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,102
    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, I was going to post last night but didn't get round to it.

    America stands at a crossroads. We can see that the regime has two choices - fall next year, or embed itself for the long haul.

    If they follow the constitution then MAGA loses control, a lot of them go to jail, and perhaps America will once again align itself with democracy instead of with dictators. But that means various people taking the brave pill and doing the right thing.

    Or they do the other thing. The naughty list of media becomes the banned list. The opinion polls go the way of the economic measures he's dispensed with. And he provokes violence in cities by sending in blackshirts from out of state to create the excuse to send in more troops, arrest officials and "postpone" elections.

    In either case, the World Cup will be symbolic of the state of things. A bloated absurdity of a tournament where officials want 5 years of penis size measurements and a pledge of fealty to the fuhrer before they let you into a country where tickets for the tournament cost $fuckoff.

    I remember World Cup Italia 90, where for Egypt games there were a lot of Egyptian Navy personnel filling the seats. This time they will fill the seats with stormtroopers. With normals arrested at the end of the quarter...

    Mike Pence was a horrible man who nodded along to many horrible things between 2016 and 2020. But at the vital moment he stood firm and did the right thing.

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.
    Pence isn’t a horrible man. He’s a committed evangelical Christian and you probably don’t agree with many of his positions. But he’s not a “horrible man” any more than Sadiq Khan is.
    I can cope with the concept that many evangelical "Christians" are horrible because they seem to have a bible that only has bits of Genesis and Leviticus. All that woke Jesus stuff can get right out. We're about to see the same from the Reform "Christians" where Jesus opened the temple to the shirt sellers and told thy neighbour to fuck off from whence they came.

    As for Pence, his replacement is a man who called the President a Nazi and then decided that he wanted to be Rudolf Hess. Could Vance oust the regime? Sure - to install himself as leader.

    The big question remains Trump. We can say pretty confidently that he has serious health conditions. Will one of these incapacitate him and thus force a change? Or like previous mad dictators does he just step it up?
    That makes them wrong, not bad people.

    Trump was rightly criticised for describing Khan as “horrible” and “vicious”. Others should be held to the same standard
    There are a lot of bad ideas, but very few bad people once we get past the Putins of this world.

    Yes Trump does sometimes go too far with his language, and American political discourse in general is much more coarse than elsewhere, even before the current incumbent takes it to another level.
    8 years ago Trump denied calling countries shitholes

    Now he boasts about it
    That’s dementia eroding the filter between brain and mouth
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,095
    Meanwhile various US states such as Utah, Arizona and South Carolina are all suffering epidemics of measles once again. The degree of immunisation in South Carolina in particular is thought to be suboptimal.
    "Of the 111 measles cases recorded in that area, known as the Upstate region, 105 involved people who were unvaccinated, while three involved those who were partially vaccinated, state epidemiologist Linda Bell said at a news briefing."

    It looks as if Darwin may prove to be correct yet again. Its just a pity that so much damage can be done in the meantime to so many innocents.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    What do I keep saying about Reform in Scotland?
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331

    DoctorG said:

    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
    Yes, its a bit "plague on all your houses" at the moment. The seats were notionally Lib Dem and Lab respectively, I think the SNP will be more concerned about the Whitburn result
    The significance there is the fact voters united against the SNP rather than Reform. That is certainly notable.
    The Highlands result was a continuation of the Lib Dems restoring that area as the stronghold it once was.
    Also a decent night for the Cons in holding two wards nicely against Reform attacks. They lost elsewhere but this is the first sign of a recovery for them.
    The LIb Dems beat a Con in Devon where Reform would have hoped to win.
    Reform again did very well generally - just not as well as in May.
    Should any Lab partizans remain on the board you might like to give this week's results a miss (well - just about every week's results to be honest)
    Nicely summarised

    For the SNP, in constituency seats next year they may get away with at in the central belt as the challengers are divided. In the Highland and south, its Lib dem, Tory or Reform. Slab have a mountain to climb and the UK leadership aren't helping
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    Usually the way self-deportation works is you are given a choice between self-deporting with the ability to reapply or being deported with a big red line through your record meaning you can never come back again.

    It sounds good on social media posts but reality is usually more complicated (this is not to say the democrats aren’t idiots for highlighting this case)
    Oh absolutely.

    What I don’t understand is the Dems highlighting cases that, when the full facts are known, most people think probably should be deported. They hope that only half the story makes their case appear better, and trust their friendly media to keep reinforcing half the story.

    Having lost to Trump, of all people, by consistently being on the wrong side of a whole bunch of 80-20 social issues, they appear not to have learned their lesson and keep doing it.
    From the header on Trump's approval ratings:

    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)


    It seems to me that the Dems are getting their message across very effectively.
    Trump being unpopular is different to the Dems being popular. It is probably enough for the Dems to win the next set of fair elections, if they are held. But as soon as the Dems take power, they will be unpopular again and the next MAGA will be next in line.
    There's some analysis out that contrary to common belief, the Harris campaign was actually quite effective. Where they went head-to-head with Trump in marginal states they were able to pull back. The problem was they weren't able to pull back enough with an electorate that was disinclined to give the Democrats time of day.
    Also virtually every incumbent in every liberal democracy was either being replaced or at least losing ground. The unpopularity of our governments cannot be solely down to them being crap, the economic conditions have a bigger influence than candidate quality and capability.
    Cannot be emphasised enough. It's a delusion that economies in an electoral timeframe perform principally according to the talents of whoever happens to be in government. But politics (with the connivance of politicians) operates on that basis. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.

    This is why I'm not writing off MAGA in the US yet. The American economy is an awesome beast and I can perfectly well imagine it picking up and motoring under Trump despite everything. If that happens his ratings will almost certainly rise and both the midterms and 28 could be anything but a cruise for the Dems.
    If the economy does ok, the vast majority of growth is going to the top 1% under Trump so the voters won't feel it. Hence the scapegoating of anyone and everyone to blame for anything and everything.
    Yes but inflation might come down, ditto interest rates, bit of a boom gets going, some feelgood, jobs, payrises, deficit fuelled and unsustainable but, you know, who cares. It's the nightmare scenario and I give it a 25% chance.
    Inflation won't come down while Trump has his tariffs
    Well let's hope you're right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    edited December 12
    The funniest thing about Labour's by-election losses is that they're frequently not even finishing a close or even distant second. Whether it's Plaid, Reform, SNP, Greens they're getting torn apart every which way.

    West Lothian, Darlington, Caerphilly - all historical Labour areas, now Labour absolutely nowhere in any of them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,039
    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    I’m surprised the SNP didn’t win that after transfers. Who was Lynch and where did their transfers go? Are Labour transfers going to Reform or the SNP or nowhere?
    Not seen the transfers yet but Reform had a bigger lead in Whitburn than Stranraer a fortnight ago (led by 80). A lot of votes would be non transferable, but i dont know much about weightings
    Whitburn only a dozen miles from Falkirk, scene of refugee hotel protests and the turquoise ones’ recent rally. Perhaps they’ve identified the area as a suitable scab to pick, correctly it would appear.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,095

    HYUFD said:

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
    Doesn't stack up with the assumptions that underpinned her Budget last month. Ooops.
    It starts (again). Sigh. Allowing planned borrowing to increase this year on a set of assumptions that might well prove optimistic for any number of reasons was not prudent, or wise or even rational.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    Amalfi is quite the most beautiful place and we have visited it several times

    Many years ago we stayed in a fabulous hotel with its own beach and chapel and where our daughter had her first holiday romance

    Subsequently we returned for a couple of days with the family after a holiday in Italy, and also landed from a cruise ship and took communion in the Cathedral

    I understand the hotel we stayed in years ago is vastly expensive catering for the very wealthy but when we went we were just an ordinary family with 3 children having hired a car in Naples
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest thing about Labour's by-election losses is that they're frequently not even finishing a close or even distant second. Whether it's Plaid, Reform, SNP, Greens they're getting torn apart every which way.

    West Lothian, Darlington, Caerphilly - all historical Labour areas, now Labour absolutely nowhere in any of them.

    Can you blame the voters?

    Historically a party of the working class, now a party of the metropolitan elite. They need better policies to attract those voters back but it will require a gutting of the present UK leadership
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,665
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    Italian plumbing seems to have declined since Roman times
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,164
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
    Doesn't stack up with the assumptions that underpinned her Budget last month. Ooops.
    It starts (again). Sigh. Allowing planned borrowing to increase this year on a set of assumptions that might well prove optimistic for any number of reasons was not prudent, or wise or even rational.
    And yet, she was called on to resign by all the opposition parties as she put up taxes which the opposition claimed were not needed according to the OBR.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,164
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    Not sure how long you've been married but if it is still refusing to budge definitely call the doctor!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    We divided our honeymoon between Venice and Sorrento. Travelling by train to Rome, then changing to Naples, it was like switching from Germany to the Middle East. The train from Venice to Rome was luxurious and air-conditioned. The train we switched to was falling to pieces, with people bringing chickens and ducks on board. We arrived at Sorrento in the middle of a thunder storm, soaked and bedraggled. The Maitre D' plainly wanted to tell us to get lost, but he couldn't as we were guests. So, he found a table, hidden behind an aspidistra, to hide us at.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,095

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
    Doesn't stack up with the assumptions that underpinned her Budget last month. Ooops.
    It starts (again). Sigh. Allowing planned borrowing to increase this year on a set of assumptions that might well prove optimistic for any number of reasons was not prudent, or wise or even rational.
    And yet, she was called on to resign by all the opposition parties as she put up taxes which the opposition claimed were not needed according to the OBR.
    No, the calls for her to resign were because she lied about whether there was another £20bn hole which did not in fact exist and which she knew did not exist on the basis of the figures provided by the OBR. Increasing taxes to improve her headroom was a sensible move and I said so at the time. Ensuring that total spending was reduced at the same time reducing borrowing rather than increasing it would have been even more sensible. Not finding yet more freebies not paid for by cuts elsewhere would have been more sensible still.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    edited December 12
    Percentages and changes:

    West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    Ref 32.03% [+15.71]
    SNP 27.97% [-0.88]
    Lab 17.06% [-13.80]
    Ind Lynch 13.17% [+1.28]
    Con 3.51% [-3.24]
    LD 2.78% [+0.04]
    Grn 2.75% [+0.15]
    Ind Millar 0.73% [new]


    Highland, Fort William and Ardnamurchan

    LD 40.43% [-18.48]
    SNP 29.06% [+3.52]
    Ref 9.62% [new]
    Grn 9.44% [+3.42]
    Con 7.65% [+3.24]
    Lab 3.80% [-0.70]

    (Libtn prev 0.62%)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,039
    DoctorG said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest thing about Labour's by-election losses is that they're frequently not even finishing a close or even distant second. Whether it's Plaid, Reform, SNP, Greens they're getting torn apart every which way.

    West Lothian, Darlington, Caerphilly - all historical Labour areas, now Labour absolutely nowhere in any of them.

    Can you blame the voters?

    Historically a party of the working class, now a party of the metropolitan elite. They need better policies to attract those voters back but it will require a gutting of the present UK leadership
    On that note I see Baron Offord of Garvel is ditching his title to run for Holyrood while Baroness Clark of Kilwinning still sits as a SLab MSP under that title. Varying degrees of tone deafness seems to be a recurring factor with Labour across the nations.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,369
    edited December 12
    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile various US states such as Utah, Arizona and South Carolina are all suffering epidemics of measles once again. The degree of immunisation in South Carolina in particular is thought to be suboptimal.
    "Of the 111 measles cases recorded in that area, known as the Upstate region, 105 involved people who were unvaccinated, while three involved those who were partially vaccinated, state epidemiologist Linda Bell said at a news briefing."

    It looks as if Darwin may prove to be correct yet again. Its just a pity that so much damage can be done in the meantime to so many innocents.

    On the subject of vaccines, I was picking up some bits in the chemist and the pharmacist was busy phoning around patients and cancelling those booked for flu jabs next week as no vaccine anywhere and apparently none to be had elsewhere.

    Maybe just Leicester, but if anyone hasn't had it they may well have missed the boat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Has anyone detected any practical signs of this actually happening, beyond the rhetoric ?

    The UK is "rapidly developing" plans to prepare the whole country for the possible outbreak of war, the armed forces minister has said.
    @AlistairCarns said armies, navies & air forces respond to crises but "societies, industries & economies win wars"

    https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/1999369740356063625

    Carns seems to have been unusually visible this week (I'd never before heard of him).
    Is he on manoeuvres ?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,649
    edited December 12
    As I recall, the Times New Roman typeface was designed more for newspaper headlines, not ordinary text.

    Pedant alert: In printing, a font refers to an instance of a typeface. (This makes sense if you remember how physical printing worked.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190

    Shocked

    Major investigation into GMP officers and staff making 'non-legitimate' contact with sex workers

    EXCLUSIVE: Three people have been sacked and another 10 are being investigated amid a probe into 'non-legitimate contact' with sex workers, the Manchester Evening News can reveal


    A major investigation into Greater Manchester Police officers and staff allegedly making 'non-legitimate' contact with sex workers has been launched. Three people have been sacked and another 10 are being investigated by the force's Anti-Corruption Unit.

    The probe into 'non-legitimate' police contact with sex workers was triggered by the case of Inspector Toby Knight. The disgraced cop scheduled hundreds of meetings with sex workers on his force-issued phone, including some while he was on duty.

    After serving nearly 30 years with GMP, Knight retired in May this year, the day before a gross misconduct hearing concluded that had he still been serving he would have been dismissed without notice.

    The force said eight police officers - including a Superintendent who has been suspended - and two staff members are under investigation. Knight and two staff members have already been dismissed. The two sacked civilian staff members have not been named.

    Four of those under investigation have been served with misconduct papers. Bosses do not believe the alleged actions of the 13 people are linked, other than by the nature of their alleged behaviour.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/major-investigation-gmp-officers-staff-33039651#

    I think they should ban people who are under active investigation from retiring without sign off from a senior officer
    And the senior officers would all sign each other off.

    Simpler - you can retire while under active investigation. But the investigation continues.

    Oh, and you don’t get your pension until after the investigation has concluded.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,264
    ROFL

    @JakeSherman

    NEWS -- SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON and his leadership team will meet with the "Five Families" today to pitch an idea to give mods an amendment vote to the GOP health care bill.

    The amendment: extending the Obamacare premium subsidies.

    MORE IN AM

    https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1999467054219620585?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    Amalfi is quite the most beautiful place and we have visited it several times

    Many years ago we stayed in a fabulous hotel with its own beach and chapel and where our daughter had her first holiday romance

    Subsequently we returned for a couple of days with the family after a holiday in Italy, and also landed from a cruise ship and took communion in the Cathedral

    I understand the hotel we stayed in years ago is vastly expensive catering for the very wealthy but when we went we were just an ordinary family with 3 children having hired a car in Naples
    Yes, a fabulous place. We pushed the boat out on the hotel. A ham sandwich was £10 (2006). A fellow guest was the actor Peter Strauss (Rich Man Poor Man) who apparently used to spend a month every summer there. Nice work if you can get it, that starring in a hit tv drama gig.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    WALKINSHAW: Are you familiar with the Proud Boys?

    GLASHEEN: I'm familiar with the name

    WALKINSHAW: Does the FBI still designate them as an extremist organization? They did during Trump's first term

    GLASHEEN: We are in the process right now of changing our, uh, categories for domestic terrorism...

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1999174741945401659

    Haven't they all joined ICE by now ?
  • Law firm sets up OnlyFans team

    A law firm has set up a specialist service to models and agencies working with 'adult sites' such as OnlyFans.

    Blackmont Legal, based in Manchester, already provides legal advice to social media influencers who make money on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram.

    The firm is also eyeing up adult site creators (so to speak), by launching dedicated legal services for OnlyFans models and agencies.

    Spotting the "rise" in this area (get your mind out of the gutter, please), Blackmont Legal noted that there are almost 23,000 Only Fans creators in the UK, and that top performers can earn in excess of £20,000 monthly.

    The firm said the growth of subscription-based content has resulted in a so-called 'under economy' where workers earn significant sums but function outside traditional employment frameworks. As a result, many of them can lack business support, operating without VAT registration or proper contracts.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-law-firm-sets-onlyfans-team
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,206
    edited December 12
    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest thing about Labour's by-election losses is that they're frequently not even finishing a close or even distant second. Whether it's Plaid, Reform, SNP, Greens they're getting torn apart every which way.

    West Lothian, Darlington, Caerphilly - all historical Labour areas, now Labour absolutely nowhere in any of them.

    The London Borough results next May are going to be quite something…a lot of their councillors who worked so hard to put Labour into government will find that they effectively dug their own graves
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818

    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian. Whitburn and Blackburn

    RefUK 1177
    SNP 1028
    Lab 627
    Ind Lynch 484
    Con 129
    LD 102
    Green 101
    Ind Millar 27

    RefUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=5

    What do I keep saying about Reform in Scotland?
    I'd be interested to hear it again, I missed it the first time. It'll be interesting to see how the transfers broke down when we get the data.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,510
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
    Peach & Glebe (1995) say:

    The probable Muslim population in Britain in 1951 was approximately 23,000. By 1961 there were about 82,000 Muslims in Britain, by 1971 about 369,000, by 1981 about 553,000 (Peach 1990b) and by 1991 about 1,000,000. These numbers are based on the ethnic origin of the minority population of Britain and about 75 per cent is made up of groups originating in the Indian subcontinent

    Peach, C., & Glebe, G. (1995). Muslim minorities in Western Europe. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18(1), 26–45. https://doi.org/10.1080/01419870.1995.9993852
  • eekeek Posts: 32,146
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest thing about Labour's by-election losses is that they're frequently not even finishing a close or even distant second. Whether it's Plaid, Reform, SNP, Greens they're getting torn apart every which way.

    West Lothian, Darlington, Caerphilly - all historical Labour areas, now Labour absolutely nowhere in any of them.

    As I commented about Darlington last night - what was surprising was how split the not reform vote was.

    That's going to be the biggest problem in a lot of areas, Tories were found wanting, Labour is wanting and the Lib Dems aren't an obvious NTA but not Reform party in large parts of the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Just a word of warning for anyone wanting to travel to the World Cup next year: think twice before posting on this thread.

    Just for the record, I shitpost as much as many about Trump on here, but didn't have the slightest difficulty getting into the US last month.

    So though we can blame him for undermining the rule of law, murdering random people on the high seas, undermining the economy, trashing the constitution and destroying America's standing in the free world, we can absolve him of the ultimate crime against humanity of banning PBers from the US.

    He's not a monster after all.
    I'm about to cancel my long-booked crossing to the US for next autumn, and am planning to take the dog to Crete instead.
    Excellent call. My tour of Dixie remains on ice.
    I've said hurty words about Trump, so I will be avoiding the USA, so long as he is in power.

    I've just booked a long weekend in Naples.
    Great place. But make sure you just do the "see it" part.
    The King of Naples' historic porn collection is amusing. And make sure you see Pompeii before the overdue next eruption of Vesuvius
    We honeymooned on the Amalfi and went to Pompeii. My wife climbed it whilst I bottled out due to the high temp and feeling slightly off. The toilet I used at the base remains vivid in mind to this day. If I hadn't felt 'off" beforehand I sure would have done afterwards. Lots of better memories, of course, from our holiday as newly weds but that one refuses to budge.
    Amalfi is quite the most beautiful place and we have visited it several times

    Many years ago we stayed in a fabulous hotel with its own beach and chapel and where our daughter had her first holiday romance

    Subsequently we returned for a couple of days with the family after a holiday in Italy, and also landed from a cruise ship and took communion in the Cathedral

    I understand the hotel we stayed in years ago is vastly expensive catering for the very wealthy but when we went we were just an ordinary family with 3 children having hired a car in Naples
    Yes, a fabulous place. We pushed the boat out on the hotel. A ham sandwich was £10 (2006). A fellow guest was the actor Peter Strauss (Rich Man Poor Man) who apparently used to spend a month every summer there. Nice work if you can get it, that starring in a hit tv drama gig.
    Just remember never to try and drive there.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,206
    edited December 12
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Is there a Mike Pence in the current Administration? I think Team MAGA learned their lesson, unfortunately.

    Stuffing the administration with incompetent loyalists brings its own problems

    @atrupar.com‬

    MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m7pyay4ndm2w

    @thetnholler.bsky.social‬

    🔥 @repdeliaramirez to @KristiNoem: “Bottom Line: You lie with impunity. You reject checks & balances. You ignore Congress & the courts… you can either resign, Trump will fire you, or you’ll be impeached.

    You’re going to be held accountable. I’m going to make sure of that.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m7rc2dcrmc2e
    This guy?

    This is why people hate congressional hearings and don’t trust the media.

    ICE didn’t deport a veteran. Sae Joon Park self-deported to South Korea.

    He never pursued citizenship during his decades here and his green card was revoked under Obama in 2009 due to drug possession.

    https://x.com/ljmoynihan/status/1999336182203797991

    BREAKING: Democrats CAUGHT in massive fake news operation in DHS Sec. Kristi Noem hearing - lying that President Trump deported a Veteran to South Korea

    Rep. Magaziner tried a "gotcha": "We are now joined on Zoom by a veteran YOU deported."

    HE SELF-DEPORTED.

    Sae Joon Park had a removal order over felony drug charges and bail jumping - and was NOT a citizen, but a green card holder.

    Democrats lie, lie, LIE.

    https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1999200511820763484
    You still fall for MAGA lies. Here, https://www.hirono.senate.gov/news/press-releases/hirono-blumenthal-demand-answers-on-forced-self-deportation-of-disabled-purple-heart-veteran-in-hawaii , Dem Senator Hirono sets out the case. The letter notes that his green card was revoked, but he was allowed to stay. The letter notes that he self-deported, because the Trump administration forced him to. The Democrats never said he was a citizen. All this was stated by the Democrats back in August.
    You don't think that revoking his green card was a way of getting him to self-deport ?
    In 2009, by Obama, after felony drugs offences and skipping bail.

    It’s rather amusing to see the Democrats line up behind the idea that foreign felons shouldn’t be deported, of course totally forgetting to mention the felony bit.

    It’s “Maryland Man” all over again, they think that if they keep omitting and ignoring that he’s a violent gang member, people will eventually believe he’s just a happy family man being deported by Evil Orange.
    Felony drugs offences in 2009 doesn’t mean he’s a violent gang member.

    In any event, is he a veteran or not, which is the actual issue being discussed.
    You’re confusing two people, the gang member is a different individual the Democrats and media also keep lying about by omission.

    This guy is a veteran, but he wasn’t deported, he chose to leave the US of his own volition.
    Sandpit no offence but that’s total horseshit. Just because someone “self deported” under threat of indefinite detention doesn’t mean they chose to leave the US of their own volition. You really do drink the kool aid sometimes.
    Except that the Democrats said he was deported by Trump. Which was a lie.

    If they had said he was offered the chance to leave himself and took it, that would be truth.

    There’s two sides to every story, but too many people think that whatever Trump’s opponents say is absolute truth with nothing added and nothing missing.
    Shall we split the difference and say Mr Park was made an offer he couldn't refuse?
    That much is definitely true!

    You really don’t want the US federal government going after you, especially not when the President sees your specific problem as a national priority.

    I recall seeing figures that suggested that an order of magnitude more wanted people have left the country of their own volition for every one who gets deported against their will, which solves a lot of the problems without costing the government too much money.

    People who have overstayed or have been ordered deported know they really should leave the US, and prefer to go quietly rather than risk a knock on the door in the middle of the night. We’ve all seen how American police “knock” on doors, they start from the assumption that anyone they’re looking for is heavily armed and go in accordingly.
    ICE are not a police force.
    They're a bunch of paramilitary thugs who routinely violate the law.

    And they are increasingly unpopular.
    https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53394-majorities-of-americans-disapprove-of-ice
    That's an educational narrative, and highlights the grey areas between narratives.

    AFAICS he was issued a removal notice, and left first.

    With added traditional USA practices of never ending pursuit for relative trivialities from the long past. If he has lived lawfully for 10-15 years after a prison release, to say "this guy is a dangerous criminal now" seems to be an excuse, like the person thrown out for bouncing a cheque decades ago, or the new assault on Abrego Garcia using a never-purside traffic citation and dodgy extra evidence in order to save the MAGA Regime embarrassment.

    I'm reminded of the USA's habit of pursuing "deserters" for decades.

    NPR account: https://www.npr.org/2025/06/24/g-s1-74036/trump-ice-self-deportation-army-veteran-hawaii

    After prison (ie 2011-12), Park received a removal order but was allowed to stay in the U.S. and required annual check-ins with immigration agents — which is typical for individuals that ICE does not consider a priority for deportation.

    That changed earlier this month. At a meeting with local ICE officials in Hawaii, Park said he was warned that he would be detained and deported unless he left voluntarily within the next few weeks.

    So, Park booked his flight and spent his final days in the U.S. — playing one last round of golf with his friends, savoring Hawaii's famous garlic shrimp, and enjoying time with his children and 85-year-old mother.

    " I have to accept the fact that this is probably the last time I'll see her," he said.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,264
    @yarotrof

    Putin three weeks ago: I congratulate our troops on liberating Kupyansk.

    Zelensky in Kupyansk today: cool story, bro.

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1999462576078618996?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,264
    @ChristopherJM

    Zelensky made a surprise visit to the frontline city of Kupyansk, which Russia claimed its forces had captured – but now Ukraine's soldiers "are achieving results" and pushing them back, the president said.

    Zelensky underscored the importance of the shooting war as well as narrative warfare: "Today it is extremely important to achieve results at the front so that Ukraine can achieve results in diplomacy. This is exactly how it works: all our strong positions inside the country become strong positions in discussions about ending the war."

    https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1999459116071227795?s=20
  • Lawyer serves up ‘council estate dinner’ of chicken dippers and Sunny D

    A solicitor has been criticised for throwing what she described as a ‘council estate dinner’ which featured Fray Bentos pies and spam fritters.

    Sophie Murgatroyd posted on LinkedIn, ‘I love cooking for my friends... the theme of tonight's meal was "council estate dinner”’.

    The lawyer said she cooked the main course and that it consisted of crispy pancakes, chicken dippers, turkey dinosaurs, potato waffles, smiley faces, oven chips, beans, Frey Bentos Pies and spam fritters.

    Her two guests took care of pudding (Vienetta, spotted dick and custard, and ginger cake) and drinks (Sunny Delight and Buck’s Fizz).


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-lawyer-serves-council-estate-dinner-chicken-dippers-and-sunny-d
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,369
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
    Half of Muslims never going to Mosque does fit with this survey:

    https://pollingreport.uk/articles/nop-poll-of-british-muslims

    I have some very pious Muslim friends, and others that never go at all, being "culturally Muslim" in the same way many "Christian" Brits are.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,797

    Law firm sets up OnlyFans team

    A law firm has set up a specialist service to models and agencies working with 'adult sites' such as OnlyFans.

    Blackmont Legal, based in Manchester, already provides legal advice to social media influencers who make money on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram.

    The firm is also eyeing up adult site creators (so to speak), by launching dedicated legal services for OnlyFans models and agencies.

    Spotting the "rise" in this area (get your mind out of the gutter, please), Blackmont Legal noted that there are almost 23,000 Only Fans creators in the UK, and that top performers can earn in excess of £20,000 monthly.

    The firm said the growth of subscription-based content has resulted in a so-called 'under economy' where workers earn significant sums but function outside traditional employment frameworks. As a result, many of them can lack business support, operating without VAT registration or proper contracts.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-law-firm-sets-onlyfans-team

    Congratulations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860

    Lawyer serves up ‘council estate dinner’ of chicken dippers and Sunny D

    A solicitor has been criticised for throwing what she described as a ‘council estate dinner’ which featured Fray Bentos pies and spam fritters.

    Sophie Murgatroyd posted on LinkedIn, ‘I love cooking for my friends... the theme of tonight's meal was "council estate dinner”’.

    The lawyer said she cooked the main course and that it consisted of crispy pancakes, chicken dippers, turkey dinosaurs, potato waffles, smiley faces, oven chips, beans, Frey Bentos Pies and spam fritters.

    Her two guests took care of pudding (Vienetta, spotted dick and custard, and ginger cake) and drinks (Sunny Delight and Buck’s Fizz).


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-lawyer-serves-council-estate-dinner-chicken-dippers-and-sunny-d

    Can you still get SunnyD? I thought it had been banned under chemical weapons treaties...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860

    Lawyer serves up ‘council estate dinner’ of chicken dippers and Sunny D

    A solicitor has been criticised for throwing what she described as a ‘council estate dinner’ which featured Fray Bentos pies and spam fritters.

    Sophie Murgatroyd posted on LinkedIn, ‘I love cooking for my friends... the theme of tonight's meal was "council estate dinner”’.

    The lawyer said she cooked the main course and that it consisted of crispy pancakes, chicken dippers, turkey dinosaurs, potato waffles, smiley faces, oven chips, beans, Frey Bentos Pies and spam fritters.

    Her two guests took care of pudding (Vienetta, spotted dick and custard, and ginger cake) and drinks (Sunny Delight and Buck’s Fizz).


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-lawyer-serves-council-estate-dinner-chicken-dippers-and-sunny-d

    I had fond memories of Vienettas... so I bought one. I should have stuck to my memories.
    I recently saw Angel Delight. Steered clear, for the very reason you cite...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,372
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
    Half of Muslims never going to Mosque does fit with this survey:

    https://pollingreport.uk/articles/nop-poll-of-british-muslims

    I have some very pious Muslim friends, and others that never go at all, being "culturally Muslim" in the same way many "Christian" Brits are.
    I watch Carols at Kings every Christmas and retain from childhood an emotional connection to the Nativity story. Also like poking around churches and graveyards. So I wouldn't reject a label of 'cultural Christian'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    "Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford

    Dame Meg Hillier, the Labour chairwoman of the Treasury select committee, is not holding back in her criticism of Reeves and the Treasury this morning for their approach to the Budget

    Writing in The i she accuses Reeves of committing a 'glaring error' in the run-up to the Budget with her u-turn on income tax and that Budget leaks had been 'akin to throwing several grenades on the pitch'

    She told
    @TimesRadio
    that the Treasury had been 'over-egging and spinning things' in the run-up to the Budget

    “What I’m saying here very clearly is that the Treasury as a whole has a responsibility ... pitch-rolling is one thing, but over-egging things or spinning things or changing positions has been quite, there’s been a lot of that noise around this budget.

    “It has not been helpful. She [Reeves] herself has said she wants to change it. So hopefully, when we look at the OBR and how it works, it’s part of that""

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1999434402137272622
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818
    "West Lothian full results

    Stage 1 - Ref 1177, SNP 1028, Lab 627, Ind Lynch 484, Con 129, LD 102, Grn 101, Ind Millar 27
    Stage 2 - Ref 1180 (+3), SNP 1028, Lab 631 (+4), Ind Lynch 497 (+13), Con 129, LD 104 (+2), Grn 102 (+1)
    Stage 3 - Ref 1185 (+5), SNP 1071 (+43), Lab 636 (+5), Ind Lynch 505 (+8), Con 130 (+1), LD 121 (+17)
    Stage 4 - Ref 1191 (+6), SNP 1101 (+30), Lab 655 (+19), Ind Lynch 530 (+25), Con 142 (+12)
    Stage 5 - Ref 1231 (+40), SNP 1110 (+9), Lab 683 (+28), Ind Lynch 549 (+19)
    Stage 6 - Ref 1321 (+90), SNP 1230 (+120), Lab 762 (+79)
    Stage 7 - Ref 1411 (+90), SNP 1387 (+157)"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=6&scrollTo=1690994
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,982

    Lawyer serves up ‘council estate dinner’ of chicken dippers and Sunny D

    A solicitor has been criticised for throwing what she described as a ‘council estate dinner’ which featured Fray Bentos pies and spam fritters.

    Sophie Murgatroyd posted on LinkedIn, ‘I love cooking for my friends... the theme of tonight's meal was "council estate dinner”’.

    The lawyer said she cooked the main course and that it consisted of crispy pancakes, chicken dippers, turkey dinosaurs, potato waffles, smiley faces, oven chips, beans, Frey Bentos Pies and spam fritters.

    Her two guests took care of pudding (Vienetta, spotted dick and custard, and ginger cake) and drinks (Sunny Delight and Buck’s Fizz).


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-lawyer-serves-council-estate-dinner-chicken-dippers-and-sunny-d

    I had fond memories of Vienettas... so I bought one. I should have stuck to my memories.
    Haagen Dazs and good quality gelato shops have ruined the simple pleasures of cheap ice cream for me. Probably good for the waistline, though.
  • Whitburn byelection transfers published:

    https://www.westlothian.gov.uk/media/68369/Transfers-Report-Whitburn-Blackburn-12122025/pdf/Transfers_V0001_Ward-7---Whitburn-and-Blackburn_12122025_110355.pdf

    I don't know the independents so lets do transfers between parties
    Green votes: 102. Transfers to SNP 43, to LD 17, to Lab 5, to Reform 5
    LD votes 121. Transfers to SNP 30, to Lab 19, to Con 12, to Reform 6
    Con votes 142. Transfers to Reform 40, to LABOUR 28, to SNP 9
    Indy votes 549. Transfers to SNP 120, to Reform 90, to Lab 79
    Lab votes 762. Transfers to SNP 157, to Reform 90
    SNP votes 1,387. Transfers to Reform 242

    Green, LD and Lab voters wanted to stop Reform. Con voters went Reform with a surprising number to Labour!

    Point is that Reform weren't that far ahead of Reform in the first preference but couldn't pick up the relatively light number of transfers needed to win.

    And I get why. If you want to stop the division and othering and bigotry of Reform why would you vote for the bigotry and othering and division of the SNP?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,566
    Andy_JS said:

    "West Lothian full results

    Stage 1 - Ref 1177, SNP 1028, Lab 627, Ind Lynch 484, Con 129, LD 102, Grn 101, Ind Millar 27
    Stage 2 - Ref 1180 (+3), SNP 1028, Lab 631 (+4), Ind Lynch 497 (+13), Con 129, LD 104 (+2), Grn 102 (+1)
    Stage 3 - Ref 1185 (+5), SNP 1071 (+43), Lab 636 (+5), Ind Lynch 505 (+8), Con 130 (+1), LD 121 (+17)
    Stage 4 - Ref 1191 (+6), SNP 1101 (+30), Lab 655 (+19), Ind Lynch 530 (+25), Con 142 (+12)
    Stage 5 - Ref 1231 (+40), SNP 1110 (+9), Lab 683 (+28), Ind Lynch 549 (+19)
    Stage 6 - Ref 1321 (+90), SNP 1230 (+120), Lab 762 (+79)
    Stage 7 - Ref 1411 (+90), SNP 1387 (+157)"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19796/local-council-elections-11th-december?page=6&scrollTo=1690994

    So essentially it was the Tory voters preferring Reform to the SNP wot swung it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston: The only silver lining is that the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut interest rates next week by 0.25%


    Andrew Sentance
    @asentance

    A cut in interest rates is not a “silver lining” when inflation is running persistently above target and unlikely to fall significantly next year.

    https://x.com/asentance/status/1999404212501762380



    Either the decline in the economy in October is terrible news for Reeves

    "UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1% in October - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
    Doesn't stack up with the assumptions that underpinned her Budget last month. Ooops.
    It starts (again). Sigh. Allowing planned borrowing to increase this year on a set of assumptions that might well prove optimistic for any number of reasons was not prudent, or wise or even rational.
    And yet, she was called on to resign by all the opposition parties as she put up taxes which the opposition claimed were not needed according to the OBR.
    No, the calls for her to resign were because she lied about whether there was another £20bn hole which did not in fact exist and which she knew did not exist on the basis of the figures provided by the OBR. Increasing taxes to improve her headroom was a sensible move and I said so at the time. Ensuring that total spending was reduced at the same time reducing borrowing rather than increasing it would have been even more sensible. Not finding yet more freebies not paid for by cuts elsewhere would have been more sensible still.
    I'm inclined to the view that the actual black hole that exists is not just in the finances, and includes for example the parts of the progressive cuts of 1/4 or 1/3 of local Government expenditure over 12-14 years that has not been invested in local facilities. I'd say the actual black holes is well into the 100s of billions.

    The maintenance that has not been done on roads and footpaths, which has resulted in a dangerous moonscapes in our towns, is part of the black hole that we will have to fill. And now it will need many -places rebuilding far more heavily, and not just repairing.

    As is, for example, the 6 Type 26 frigates which do not exist in our navy, being cancelled by Blair, then later Cameron. The people who seem to have the best strategy on this one are the Japanese, who build one submarine a year and flex it by deployment lifetime rather than by starving the businesses to death and destroying the industry and workforce. I think we may have learnt that one lesson (at least until we forget again).
    Adjusting for what we spend on our deterrent, I think Japan spends a similar amount to us on defence.
    They get better value, I think ?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,286
    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
    SNP vote share was essentially static in Whitburn and Blackburn. It was the collapse in Slab and Scon that gave Reform their initial 149 vote lead, whittled down to only 24 in the head to head.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,206
    edited December 12
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
    Half of Muslims never going to Mosque does fit with this survey:

    https://pollingreport.uk/articles/nop-poll-of-british-muslims

    I have some very pious Muslim friends, and others that never go at all, being "culturally Muslim" in the same way many "Christian" Brits are.
    There are interesting sociological trends in Islamic communities that mirror trends in Christian-adherent or secular communities that are not ever noticed by wider media - the coverage is as shallow as it is of any religion.

    One is an expectation of young men to go a bit wild in their early 20s and 'sow their wild oats', then grow up a bit and become sound members of the community aka "good Muslims". That's a direct parallel in any Western community - in the UK we indulge bad behaviour in young adults, and expect them to grow up and settle down.

    One of the things I have sometimes observed over the years has been the number of massively-bitter formerly evangelical men, who maintained the "no sex outside marriage, holy living" discipline preached from the pulpit, then suddenly find they are 40 and single, never having had a real girlfriend beyond the platonic. That group can look back in anger. It can be a particular issue in more puritanical communities, and can help feed a completely screwed-up mentality like Pete Hegseth and unrealistic, sometimes abusive or contemptuous, attitudes to women. Fortunately many grow out of it.
  • Lawyer serves up ‘council estate dinner’ of chicken dippers and Sunny D

    A solicitor has been criticised for throwing what she described as a ‘council estate dinner’ which featured Fray Bentos pies and spam fritters.

    Sophie Murgatroyd posted on LinkedIn, ‘I love cooking for my friends... the theme of tonight's meal was "council estate dinner”’.

    The lawyer said she cooked the main course and that it consisted of crispy pancakes, chicken dippers, turkey dinosaurs, potato waffles, smiley faces, oven chips, beans, Frey Bentos Pies and spam fritters.

    Her two guests took care of pudding (Vienetta, spotted dick and custard, and ginger cake) and drinks (Sunny Delight and Buck’s Fizz).


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-lawyer-serves-council-estate-dinner-chicken-dippers-and-sunny-d

    I had fond memories of Vienettas... so I bought one. I should have stuck to my memories.
    I recently saw Angel Delight. Steered clear, for the very reason you cite...
    Butterscotch Angel Delight is still as wonderful as I remember it. The only problem now is I know how artificial it is and how bad for me.
  • sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Fort william ardnamurchan by election

    Lib dems win, technically a gain from SNP

    LD 925
    SNP 665
    RefUK 220
    Green 216
    Con 175
    Lab 87

    Lib dem victor Matthew Prosser stood as an independent in the recent Caol and Mallaig by election

    Credit to andrewp from vote 2012 forum, council didn't have figures on web page

    Not a good day for the SNP, local by election losses to Reform and the LDs. A reminder they are unpopular now too, not just Labour and the Tories
    SNP vote share was essentially static in Whitburn and Blackburn. It was the collapse in Slab and Scon that gave Reform their initial 149 vote lead, whittled down to only 24 in the head to head.
    People dislike Reform UK. Then again, people also dislike the SNP. Voting SNP to stop Reform may be a step beyond what many voters are prepared to...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,638
    edited December 12
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    @Foxy , @MattW , @rcs1000 etc - just caught up on your comments from last night: fair enough, I hold my hand up: the figure I had for 1995 was clearly erroneous. On which basis I am wrong.

    Thank-you for that. Looking at the estimates no one seems particularly clear before 2001, when a question came into the census. For 1990 Google AI seems to give a range of 500k to 1000k, which is a huge error margin. Plus of course there has always been a significant group of people not here legally.

    Just as background context from earlier - I was in Bradford 1985-1988 and at that time I think between 1/3 and 1/4 of the city was the population fraction described as Muslim. This was pre-Satanic Verses of course. There were harder line organisations being developed in places like Dewsbury some with explicit Middle Eastern links or funding, but also more ideologically open versions of Islam such as Ahmadiyya with open centres to visit in BD7 near the University.

    The main numerical work I am familiar with from that sort of period was being done by the likes of Peter Brierley, then of Marc Europe (which was spun out of the BIble Society) and later of Christian Research. Their main activity was publication of a thing called the UK Christian Handbook, which was an enormous directory and reference volume from an Evangelical base, but covering the whole UK Christian sector. They were basically a resource and research organisation for churches and mission, from an evangelical focus but working across the piece.

    They did a pioneering survey of Mosques and Mosque attendance in the second half of the 1980s, where one interesting number was Mosque attendance in the UK was around half of the adherent community - an interesting early number pointing at "drift". This is one reason I have always thought that the Muslim-background community is far broader than is readily admitted, whilst being less diffuse than the Christian-background community.

    The mantle of Peter Brierley, who is still going as a consultant after starting in this arena in the mid-1970s, has been picked up by groups such as the Religion in Numbers project at Lancaster University, and Prof Linda Woodhead.
    Half of Muslims never going to Mosque does fit with this survey:

    https://pollingreport.uk/articles/nop-poll-of-british-muslims

    I have some very pious Muslim friends, and others that never go at all, being "culturally Muslim" in the same way many "Christian" Brits are.
    There are interesting sociological trends in Islamic communities that mirror trends in Christian-adherent or secular communities that are not ever noticed by wider media - the coverage is as shallow as it is of any religion.

    One is an expectation of young men to go a bit wild in their early 20s and 'sow their wild oats', then grow up a bit and become sound members of the community aka "good Muslims". That's a direct parallel in any Western community - in the UK we indulge bad behaviour in young adults, and expect them to grow up and settle down.

    One of the things I have sometimes observed over the years has been the number of massively-bitter formerly evangelical men, who maintained the "no sex outside marriage, holy living" discipline preached from the pulpit, then suddenly find they are 40 and single, never having had a real girlfriend beyond the platonic. That group can look back in anger. It can be a particular issue in more puritanical communities, and can help feed a completely screwed-up mentality like Pete Hegseth and unrealistic, sometimes abusive or contemptuous, attitudes to women. Fortunately many grow out of it.
    There's also another issue (which I think is just human nature): we tend to assume that our own group is heterogeneous, while other groups are homogenuous.

    Hence the bizarre belief that a Muslim will cast aside all other considerations, and always vote for another Muslim.
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