No doubt there are/were nerves among the PB Lefties - the budget bounce was clear and crossover nearly occurred. Certainly some of those nerves will have been cooled, by recent polling. There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former. Just go back to 10pm during the Budget bounce - no nerves among the Tories then, they were overwrought with confidence...
David Cameron says the Big Society was "invented by Jesus" but will his profession of faith appeal to voters? #c4news http://bit.ly/1i5PXmL
"Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago; I just want to see more of it,"
"If there are things that are stopping you from doing more, think of me as a giant Dyno-Rod" he added.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The comedy fop is well and truly back. Only a day after the hilarity of Miller and Fabricant.
No doubt the PB tories will have been cheering Dyno-Fop on as he preached the 'good news'.
Jesus wept.
If that's what the SPAD's are telling Cameron, and he believes by saying that he'll get a few ex- Church of England Tories back on side then greater fool him. I far from agree with Nigel Farage on a lot of things, but that's what we're crying out for, people who speak from the heart, and not people who say something just because focus group research has led them to say it believing there is a few votes in it. We've had enough of an establishment that increasingly speaks to itself, and is clueless about life beyond the Westminster bubble.
No doubt there are/were nerves among the PB Lefties - the budget bounce was clear and crossover nearly occurred. Certainly some of those nerves will have been cooled, by recent polling. There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former. Just go back to 10pm during the Budget bounce - no nerves among the Tories then, they were overwrought with confidence...
Nerves.....never, as the polling crossover waves were splashing on our feet/paws, me and Basil stood their defiantly predicting it wouldn't happen......though the goalposts did get a bit wet.
No doubt there are/were nerves among the PB Lefties - the budget bounce was clear and crossover nearly occurred. Certainly some of those nerves will have been cooled, by recent polling. There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former. Just go back to 10pm during the Budget bounce - no nerves among the Tories then, they were overwrought with confidence...
Nerves.....never, as the polling crossover waves were splashing on our feet/paws, me and Basil stood their defiantly predicting it wouldn't happen......though the goalposts did get a bit wet.
There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former.
Really? The most common theme from most of the Left - including Nick Palmer, the thinking man's Labour Prospective Parliamentary Candidate - seems to be that the LibDem defectors guarantee them victory, and that the Labour lead is secure.
Of course, there are wise heads such as Dan Hodges who rightly caution that a lead of around 3% to 4% a year out from the election means nothing very much, but they are in a minority.
Political punters of sense will, of course, look at the standard deviation of the change in lead, and the more likely sign of that change, in the year leading up to typical elections (in the UK and elsewhere), and set up their betting positions accordingly. You need to cover quite a wide range.
In addition to that below, I think we'll look back on April 5th 2014 as a very significant moment, when the 5 year stockmarket rally came to an end. All things have to come to an end, I never expected this one to take so long, but we all live and learn, and become better people for the experience.
Well if you're right it would be ironic that the 1999 FTSE100 all time high will still remain.
Remember earlier in the year when the media was full of articles predicting a new stock market peak "any day now, possibly even tomorrow" and a year end FTSE100 of 7,500 or higher ?
Yes, I think that 31st December 1999 peak will remain. Well, absolutely everybody almost to the last man standing is bullish and euphoric right now (or at the end of last week at least). Investor sentiment has been absolutely off the charts, heck even Greece has been able to tap the international bond market for 11bn euros of 5 year paper. Who in their right minds would lend to Greece after the experience of the past 6 years?!!
And as for a piece of Camden Market going for £400m, well greater fool them - it could only happen right at the top of a credit bubble. Whilst people have forgotten the lessons from the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, and the property bubble in 2007, I don't think they'll forget the lessons of this one bursting in a hurry. As they say, you can forgive something twice, but a third time.......no, no and thrice no!!
The connection between the Stock Market and the economy and more specifically between the FTSE 100 and the UK economy is tenuous at best but I would be very surprised if the stock market did not finish the year up from here. There is a lot of good news to come and even if much of it has been priced in there is still room for some upside.
The housing market down here is keeping the economy pumped. My house in the suburbs has gone up £42k in value unimproved since we moved in July. People feel they are doing well, even though it's just brick money.
Hunchman Maybe, but Austria has PR. If we had PR UKIP may well have overtaken the Tories and the Greens overtaken the LDs, and the next government would definitely be a Coalition (maybe even including UKIP). However, in the UK we have FPTP for better or worse, and the Tories need to win back voters lost to UKIP for Cameron to stay in No 10
What is concerning me greatly with all this old rubbish being brought before the courts now is that the good sense of juries is giving a dangerous message. If you are advising a client now facing historic sex charges with no DNA how do you advise a guilty plea (short of a confession)? Even with discounted sentences the guilty as well as the innocent will fancy their chances and genuine victims will be put through a completely unnecessary experience, sometimes with terrible consequences.
We have seen this in rape cases where public policy has made it extremely difficult to drop a case if it has any chance of getting to the jury. Let them take the responsibility is the weak way out and the consequence is more trials than there should be.
I'm not sure what the position is in Scotland, but what has been going on in England is very worrying. The CPS has been taking the Bractonian maxim that time doesn't run against the king to levels unseen since the days of the quo warranto cases in the thirteenth century. The more historic the allegations are, especially when it has previously been decided not to prosecute, the closer the proceedings come to being an abuse of process.
There are understandable public policy reasons for treating victims of sexual offences with dignity. The problem with that approach, however, in the context of the criminal justice system, is that it presumes what the Crown are required to prove.
A decade ago now I was involved in one of the first Scottish "cold cases" where there simply had not been enough evidence to convict prior to DNA analysis. I really had no problem with it in those circumstances, particularly as the accused was one of the most evil men I have ever encountered. He has since been convicted of other murders and rapes and he was convicted in my case too.
Witnesses coming forward years after the event and years after evidence for or against (such as alibi) could be confirmed and proven is deeply unsatisfactory. Whatever the outcome the Clifford case has been a good example of that. The case against Mr Evans should surely never have been prosecuted with the exception of the most serious charge.
I was researching the question of determination within a reasonable time in the context of article 6 recently for a disciplinary matter. It was depressing how it had been removed of any content by the senior English judiciary despite some fairly desperate attempts by the late Lord Rodger and the now retired Lord Hope.
In addition to that below, I think we'll look back on April 5th 2014 as a very significant moment, when the 5 year stockmarket rally came to an end. All things have to come to an end, I never expected this one to take so long, but we all live and learn, and become better people for the experience.
Well if you're right it would be ironic that the 1999 FTSE100 all time high will still remain.
Remember earlier in the year when the media was full of articles predicting a new stock market peak "any day now, possibly even tomorrow" and a year end FTSE100 of 7,500 or higher ?
Yes, I think that 31st December 1999 peak will remain. Well, absolutely everybody almost to the last man standing is bullish and euphoric right now (or at the end of last week at least). Investor sentiment has been absolutely off the charts, heck even Greece has been able to tap the international bond market for 11bn euros of 5 year paper. Who in their right minds would lend to Greece after the experience of the past 6 years?!!
And as for a piece of Camden Market going for £400m, well greater fool them - it could only happen right at the top of a credit bubble. Whilst people have forgotten the lessons from the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, and the property bubble in 2007, I don't think they'll forget the lessons of this one bursting in a hurry. As they say, you can forgive something twice, but a third time.......no, no and thrice no!!
Absolutely, social mood at work. And I can't wait for the next March 2009 moment, at which point I'll be buying..... and hopefully at absolute rock bottom bargain basement prices of a lifetime.
David Cameron says the Big Society was "invented by Jesus" but will his profession of faith appeal to voters? #c4news http://bit.ly/1i5PXmL
"Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago; I just want to see more of it,"
"If there are things that are stopping you from doing more, think of me as a giant Dyno-Rod" he added.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The comedy fop is well and truly back. Only a day after the hilarity of Miller and Fabricant.
No doubt the PB tories will have been cheering Dyno-Fop on as he preached the 'good news'.
Jesus wept.
If that's what the SPAD's are telling Cameron
The entire "Big Society" strategy was a source of constant strife at the top of the chumocracy during the 2010 election campaign. Basically it was one of the "blue sky" ideas pushed by Hilton but crucially it was one which Cammie was utterly convinced would work. Those who opposed it (one person in particular) in tory communications had to swallow it but they were never happy with it. The curious thing is that the big two who fought about it the most have now gone yet it still keeps popping up periodically. The only conceivable reason why is that Cammie has not given up on it. However, I strongly doubt Crosby will wear it for 2015 so this is Cammie returning to one of his own pet projects hoping it might yet still get traction. He is of course wrong, but that won't stop him trying every now and again.
Certainly the lefty fear of Dan Hodges is a sight to behold. That is of course because they know he is often right (today's article was a superb example, unarguably right), but I suppose also because apostates are always reviled.
There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former.
Really? The most common theme from most of the Left - including Nick Palmer, the thinking man's Labour Prospective Parliamentary Candidate - seems to be that the LibDem defectors guarantee them victory, and that the Labour lead is secure.
Of course, there are wise heads such as Dan Hodges who rightly caution that a lead of around 3% to 4% a year out from the election means nothing very much, but they are in a minority.
Political punters of sense will, of course, look at the standard deviation of the change in lead, and the more likely sign of that change, in the year leading up to typical elections (in the UK and elsewhere), and set up their betting positions accordingly. You need to cover quite a wide range.
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
Hunchman Maybe, but Austria has PR. If we had PR UKIP may well have overtaken the Tories and the Greens overtaken the LDs, and the next government would definitely be a Coalition (maybe even including UKIP). However, in the UK we have FPTP for better or worse, and the Tories need to win back voters lost to UKIP for Cameron to stay in No 10
Well they won't be winning me back for starters, they're wasting their time. It was Help to Buy that sent me over the edge, being the state sponsored misallocation of capital that it is. I would never have believed 20 years ago that a Conservative government would follow such a shameful policy. At least a report today laid it bare on student debt, that many people would still be paying back in their 50's, and many people wouldn't pay it back at all. What sort of society have we created where people are still paying for their education 30 years after finishing their studies. Only such a world could exist at the top of a completely deranged credit bubble that has suceeded in mispricing every asset under the sun in the economy.
What shall we talk about on "Political" Betting tomorrow? Universities? Dickens? Trains? Positive Discrimination? Swingback? Cornflakes?
I don't know why Scottish Nationalists even bother with PB.
You would deny us the comedy of watching mockenys and out of touch twerps making a fool of themselves then pitifully trying to pass it off as "trolling"?
In addition to that below, I think we'll look back on April 5th 2014 as a very significant moment, when the 5 year stockmarket rally came to an end. All things have to come to an end, I never expected this one to take so long, but we all live and learn, and become better people for the experience.
Well if you're right it would be ironic that the 1999 FTSE100 all time high will still remain.
Remember earlier in the year when the media was full of articles predicting a new stock market peak "any day now, possibly even tomorrow" and a year end FTSE100 of 7,500 or higher ?
Yes, I think that 31st December 1999 peak will remain. Well, absolutely everybody almost to the last man standing is bullish and euphoric right now (or at the end of last week at least). Investor sentiment has been absolutely off the charts, heck even Greece has been able to tap the international bond market for 11bn euros of 5 year paper. Who in their right minds would lend to Greece after the experience of the past 6 years?!!
And as for a piece of Camden Market going for £400m, well greater fool them - it could only happen right at the top of a credit bubble. Whilst people have forgotten the lessons from the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, and the property bubble in 2007, I don't think they'll forget the lessons of this one bursting in a hurry. As they say, you can forgive something twice, but a third time.......no, no and thrice no!!
I kind of agree with you re Camden Market, it is a remarkable and unique place (seriously worth visiting, for those who sneer at it), and it is rightfully in London's top ten attractions, but.... £0.4 billion? For just a chunk?
Must be a bubble.
And yet I read a very intriguing remark the other day, I think it was on the Guardian website after some property porn piece. And it said:
"If I had £100 for every time someone has told me, in the last 30 years, that 'London property cannot get any more expensive', then I would now be able to afford a London property. But of course I can't. Because London property is too expensive."
It is the bubble that never bursts. But it must. Yet it doesn't.
Will soon be the undisputed capital of the world Sean. We need more houses and fast.
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
I don't think Nick is at all nailed on to win Broxtowe. It is certainly odd that he claims there is no Tory effort on the ground.
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
Certainly the lefty fear of Dan Hodges is a sight to behold. That is of course because they know he is often right (today's article was a superb example, unarguably right), but I suppose also because apostates are always reviled.
Certainly the lefty fear of Dan Hodges is a sight to behold. That is of course because they know he is often right (today's article was a superb example, unarguably right), but I suppose also because apostates are always reviled.
Rather than a fear it's more that he writes the same article over and over again and manages to get paid for it.
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
I don't think Nick is at all nailed on to win Broxtowe. It is certainly odd that he claims there is no Tory effort on the ground.
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
That's a fair point - I would look for Laddy's odds on the seat but I want to get to bed before 5am!
Hunchman Maybe, (although it was Labour which introduced student fees and set off the housing boom) and those are the voters the Tories need to win, even if they will not win your vote
David Cameron says the Big Society was "invented by Jesus" but will his profession of faith appeal to voters? #c4news http://bit.ly/1i5PXmL
"Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago; I just want to see more of it,"
"If there are things that are stopping you from doing more, think of me as a giant Dyno-Rod" he added.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The comedy fop is well and truly back. Only a day after the hilarity of Miller and Fabricant.
No doubt the PB tories will have been cheering Dyno-Fop on as he preached the 'good news'.
Jesus wept.
If that's what the SPAD's are telling Cameron, and he believes by saying that he'll get a few ex- Church of England Tories back on side then greater fool him. I far from agree with Nigel Farage on a lot of things, but that's what we're crying out for, people who speak from the heart, and not people who say something just because focus group research has led them to say it believing there is a few votes in it. We've had enough of an establishment that increasingly speaks to itself, and is clueless about life beyond the Westminster bubble.
Perhaps, but I think it is something else.
The only voluntary organisation Cameron has ever run is the Conservative Party - and he's trashed that. He is absolutely useless at getting people to work at zero or low wages, perhaps because he was paid as a SPAD for his political activities anyway.
Christians will continue to set up foodbanks and other social projects and just ignore what Cameron has to say.
Certainly the lefty fear of Dan Hodges is a sight to behold. That is of course because they know he is often right (today's article was a superb example, unarguably right), but I suppose also because apostates are always reviled.
Rather than a fear it's more that he writes the same article over and over again and manages to get paid for it.
I kind of agree with you re Camden Market, it is a remarkable and unique place (seriously worth visiting, for those who sneer at it), and it is rightfully in London's top ten attractions, but.... £0.4 billion? For just a chunk?
Must be a bubble.
And yet I read a very intriguing remark the other day, I think it was on the Guardian website after some property porn piece. And it said:
"If I had £100 for every time someone has told me, in the last 30 years, that 'London property cannot get any more expensive', then I would now be able to afford a London property. But of course I can't. Because London property is too expensive."
It is the bubble that never bursts. But it must. Yet it doesn't.
Absolutely Sean T. As I've said before, I underestimated the demographics, particularly of the top 1% where their spending peaks much later than the average as a result mainly of having kids later, and those kids flying the nest later by going to university on average far more than the general population at large. But that's now changing, the baby boom peaked in the early 1960's, those people are now in their early 50's just at the point they're realising, heck we've got a retirement to save up for now. So the whole demographic balance is starting to shift against property, not to mention the credit bubble. Put those 2 together, and it makes for a deadly combination going forward.
What's amazing is the London bubble relative to even the rest of the South East. Prices in places like Milton Keynes and Reading are still nowhere near their August 2007 peak. And I was reading an article about how central London prices have raced ahead more than 20% relative to outer London boroughs like Bromley, Havering, Hounslow and Hillingdon. Before I was born, over 35 years ago, there was no London premium relative to the rest of the South East, when the general sentiment was better to be away from the negatives of big city life - how times have changed. But what swings in one direction usually ultimately swings back in the other direction.......eventually.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be good places to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
Ukip +4, LDs -4. Those debates were a good idea for Clegg then: http://bit.ly/OIB5iG
Nail. Head.
Poor old Calamity Clegg and his ostrich faction of inept spinners. What will they do now? The one very clear thing lib dems (those that are left) will remember about the EU election campaign now is Clegg's 'master strategy' and just how badly that went. Clegg is personally going to have to eat the May local and EU election results since he will have nobody to blame them on but himself.
Unquestionably a good poll for Labour tonight but I would tentatively suggest that 6% is now an outlier rather than a staple. The band remains tighter than it was. Until the next time anyway.
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
I don't think Nick is at all nailed on to win Broxtowe. It is certainly odd that he claims there is no Tory effort on the ground.
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
That's a fair point - I would look for Laddy's odds on the seat but I want to get to bed before 5am!
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
I don't think Nick is at all nailed on to win Broxtowe. It is certainly odd that he claims there is no Tory effort on the ground.
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
That's a fair point - I would look for Laddy's odds on the seat but I want to get to bed before 5am!
As a pro-European Conservative, or anything else, she's clueless, and lazy.
David Cameron says the Big Society was "invented by Jesus" but will his profession of faith appeal to voters? #c4news http://bit.ly/1i5PXmL
"Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago; I just want to see more of it,"
"If there are things that are stopping you from doing more, think of me as a giant Dyno-Rod" he added.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The comedy fop is well and truly back. Only a day after the hilarity of Miller and Fabricant.
No doubt the PB tories will have been cheering Dyno-Fop on as he preached the 'good news'.
I saw the #cameronjesus tweets then read the link on pinknews... No joke I genuinely thought it was a gay version of daily mash and he hasn't really said it
Since the Great Crash I've used Parkway as a barometer of the London economy. At the depths of the recession there might have been about 10 empty shop fronts on this crucial Camden street.
Now there is just one (apart from pubs being done up, & shops obviously changing hands). And even this last site (once an Unwins, bless) has a planning permission notice outside, saying it is about to become a Sainsburys Local.
Meanwhile the can-I-drive-through-the-market barometer is Off The Scale. Usually it is only a problem to drive right through Camden market - i.e. from the high street, up to Chalk Farm, and on to Belsize and Hampstead - on a weekend.
But driving on a weekend IS stressful because the pavements heave with tourists, and you constantly feel like you are going to run someone over.
Today, for the first time ever, in my experience, the markets were so crowded on a weekday - at 6pm! - that I got the same feeling: jeez I'm going to squash someone.
Unprecedented.
My guess is that London's *GDP* is growing at 5-7% a year, right now. And this stuff is important for everyone because the Tories need the *feelgood* to spread right across the country; but if it is, in fact, just concentrated in London and the SE, they will lose in 2015.
As they say, everything looks best at the top of a credit bubble.
And there are a great many people outside London who feel repulsed by it all. House prices in the North East for example have barely recovered at all since 2009. Never has London felt like such a separate enclave to so many.
Bang on the money with that point. On the issue of the Jesus/Big Society comments, I fear another Bingo moment for those on the left here and on twitter. In an attempt to mock Cameron, they are also not only missing, but also dismissing the amazing voluntarily work done by so many in the UK to help others. My amazing and very feisty 70 year old Mum works two days a week unpaid in a local charity shop, and she also pops up with her best friend to clean her local church where she got married 50 years ago now, again as an unpaid volunteer.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be good places to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
His best ever article was the one about his mum. We could do with more of that ilk, rather than ones declaring the ridiculous Maria Miller affair as a disaster for Ed Miliband.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
First time watching Sajid Javid (on QT now). Not impressed. Second question in a row now where he's been dodging the question asked and just waffling on.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
He's strange. And always wrong. And thank God he's now working for the Tory cause, christ knows what state the Left would be in now if Hodges was involved.
Even when in the Labour Party he was more interested in himself than the Labour Party and caused more problems than he was worth. He only got away with it because of his family connections.
Ukip polling almost double the LibDems and no one cares to mention it?
Sign O' the Times
But get Clegg in those debates rather than Farage, thems the rules. Public will love it
It would be in Farage's best interests to be kept out the debates........then his anti-establishment message will resonate even more strongly than it is doing so already. That's a great message to keep hammering away with.
Ukip polling almost double the LibDems and no one cares to mention it?
Sign O' the Times
But get Clegg in those debates rather than Farage, thems the rules. Public will love it
It would be in Farage's best interests to be kept out the debates........then his anti-establishment message will resonate even more strongly than it is doing so already. That's a great message to keep hammering away with.
First time watching Sajid Javid (on QT now). Not impressed. Second question in a row now where he's been dodging the question asked and just waffling on.
Sajid Javid will not be a feather in Cammo's hat. He also looks quite infantile.
Before I was born, over 35 years ago, there was no London premium relative to the rest of the South East
Really? I must have imagined the price differential when I sold my house in London in 1987.
What has happened is more that the central London premium has spread outwards.
Indeed. Everywhere with a London postcode and many neighbouring districts now seem to be pegged to the market in the centre, which wasn't always the case.
His appeal is not across the board. It is to the Kippers.
Think of him as the 21st century Disraeli or Thatcher. The way the Tories absorb new influences and incorporate these into their philosophy is the secret of their longevity.
First time watching Sajid Javid (on QT now). Not impressed. Second question in a row now where he's been dodging the question asked and just waffling on.
Before I was born, over 35 years ago, there was no London premium relative to the rest of the South East
Really? I must have imagined the price differential when I sold my house in London in 1987.
What has happened is more that the central London premium has spread outwards.
The London premium had already emerged by then, I'm talking pre-1980's, before this great credit bubble really took hold. SeanT was right in his comments the other night, post the Falklands War and just before the time of the big bang in 1986 was when the London specific trends that we know all too well really began to take hold.
I believe so. Saw him wheeling his bike up Parkway a year ago. He's quite elderly now.
My best Camden celeb encounter was when I nearly got run over by a scowling Martin Amis in a huge BMW 4x4 on Arlington Road (this was when he was living in his dad's Primrose Hill gaff a couple of years ago).
Tiny novelist, massive car.
That said, two days ago I saw George Galloway on Regent's Park Road accompanied by a homely yet milfy Asian woman. He was wearing a long coat, and fedora, and looked quite stooped and aged, yet he still exuded a languid virility and menace. Like one of the older gangsters from The Sopranos.
I once met Dale Winton near Regent's Park. Beat that.
Ukip polling almost double the LibDems and no one cares to mention it?
Sign O' the Times
But get Clegg in those debates rather than Farage, thems the rules. Public will love it
It would be in Farage's best interests to be kept out the debates........then his anti-establishment message will resonate even more strongly than it is doing so already. That's a great message to keep hammering away with.
Ukip polling almost double the LibDems and no one cares to mention it?
Sign O' the Times
But get Clegg in those debates rather than Farage, thems the rules. Public will love it
It would be in Farage's best interests to be kept out the debates........then his anti-establishment message will resonate even more strongly than it is doing so already. That's a great message to keep hammering away with.
Nah, get him in there and let him cause mayhem.
He'll cause mayhem anyway, whether he's part of the debates or not. I always feel that Farage is on a tight rope at the best of times, and very close to making a right howler - the Ukraine Putin comments being a case in point in the Clegg debate, but he managed to extricate himself from a potential quagmire there.
CCHQ's obsequious Cameroons surely aren't still trying to pretend anyone really takes Dan Hodges seriously?
Dear oh dear oh dear.
He's a clickbaiter and only an average one at that. Nobody takes clickbaiters seriously. They are the performing dogs/toy poodles of fleet street producing interminable small variations on usually one subject and viewpoint they can be relied on to beat away at endlessly and impotently.
Oh and for the out of touch old biddies who are still deluding themselves that Shapps Bingo stupidity was a triumph, why did he almost lose his job for it then?
A Tory MP said: “It is ridiculous that Grant Shapps has had to take the blame for this poster. When it went wrong they could easily have defended him and said that it was a team effort, which it was. Instead they have hung him out to dry.”
Another MP said that Mr Shapps had not wanted to defend himself for fear of offending the Chancellor: “I’m not Grant’s greatest fan but he has been treated pretty shabbily.”
But no attempt was made by the Tory high command to counter claims that Mr Shapps was to blame for the original poster.
On Thursday morning, when he was interviewed on Radio 4's Today programme, the Chancellor sounded evasive when asked whether the advert was patronising. By yesterday, there were reports surfacing that Mr Shapps faced the sack, with Justice Secretary Chris Grayling tipped as a potential replacement.
A Tory MP and a supporter of Mr Shapps admitted the Tory chairman could have spotted there was a problem and refused to send it out. But he said the same applied to other senior aides, including Lynton Crosby, the Tories’ election strategist.
Mr Shapps was unavailable for comment on Saturday night.
The London premium had already emerged by then, I'm talking pre-1980's, before this great credit bubble really took hold. SeanT was right in his comments the other night, post the Falklands War and just before the time of the big bang in 1986 was when the London specific trends that we know all too well really began to take hold.
You're talking through your hat. Prices in central London were always high, and always influenced by international factors. In the 1970s they rocketed because there was a lot of Arab oil money coming in.
Again I have personal experience. Very profitable it was too, thank you (a flat which more than tripled in value in about five years, sold in 1978 to a Kuwaiti).
"Yet again, the Conservative party has reminded us that it is quite capable of losing the next election. The events leading up to Maria Miller’s resignation are entirely consistent with a party that is so gauche, so accident-prone, so surprised by basic news events that it can make Ed Miliband seem positively presidential. "
I believe so. Saw him wheeling his bike up Parkway a year ago. He's quite elderly now.
My best Camden celeb encounter was when I nearly got run over by a scowling Martin Amis in a huge BMW 4x4 on Arlington Road (this was when he was living in his dad's Primrose Hill gaff a couple of years ago).
Tiny novelist, massive car.
That said, two days ago I saw George Galloway on Regent's Park Road accompanied by a homely yet milfy Asian woman. He was wearing a long coat, and fedora, and looked quite stooped and aged, yet he still exuded a languid virility and menace. Like one of the older gangsters from The Sopranos.
I once met Dale Winton near Regent's Park. Beat that.
Dale Winton nearly ran me over on Gower Street in his Bentley. And he smiled as he did it.
Crikey, maybe I am being stalked by modestly famous people in big cars, all trying to run me over. Like a sort of Celebrity Automotive Hunger Games, where C listers get elevated to the A list if they squash someone in the F list.
Dale Winton gets everywhere. Sat next to me at The Wolseley, a year or so ago. I refused to give him an autograph.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Liar.
Send for the solicitors.
I'll be waiting.
'pouter thinks that Dan can hear him when he shouts at the TV. Bless.
I believe so. Saw him wheeling his bike up Parkway a year ago. He's quite elderly now.
My best Camden celeb encounter was when I nearly got run over by a scowling Martin Amis in a huge BMW 4x4 on Arlington Road (this was when he was living in his dad's Primrose Hill gaff a couple of years ago).
Tiny novelist, massive car.
That said, two days ago I saw George Galloway on Regent's Park Road accompanied by a homely yet milfy Asian woman. He was wearing a long coat, and fedora, and looked quite stooped and aged, yet he still exuded a languid virility and menace. Like one of the older gangsters from The Sopranos.
I once met Dale Winton near Regent's Park. Beat that.
Dale Winton nearly ran me over on Gower Street in his Bentley. And he smiled as he did it.
Crikey, maybe I am being stalked by modestly famous people in big cars, all trying to run me over. Like a sort of Celebrity Automotive Hunger Games, where C listers get elevated to the A list if they squash someone in the F list.
He was parking a convertible when I saw him. I also once narrowly dodged a pick-up truck being driven by Chris Eubank around the streets of Mayfair.
While googling Sean T's latest article, I alighted on his Wikipedia page, Sean I did not realise your father was such an illustrious figure, first class English degree from New College, Oxford and shortlisted for the Booker Prize!
I suspect that unlike the current Farage/UKIP bounce in the polls, Sajid Javid's career trajectory in the Conservative party will prove to be a slower, more steady and longer lasting rise in the end. That MikeK doesn't rate him surely backs that up. Oddly enough, back before the 2005 GE Cameron and Osborne were two of my nailed on up and coming Tory politicians to watch. Sajid has been one of my early spots this time around, along with Soubry and one or two others.
His appeal is not across the board. It is to the Kippers.
Think of him as the 21st century Disraeli or Thatcher. The way the Tories absorb new influences and incorporate these into their philosophy is the secret of their longevity.
First time watching Sajid Javid (on QT now). Not impressed. Second question in a row now where he's been dodging the question asked and just waffling on.
Comparisons of inflation-adjusted prices over decades are very dubious. A better comparison is that £8,000 was about ten times national average earnings (and remember that there were very few two-earner families in those days). Certainly such a house is now more expensive relative to average earnings, but not ridiculously so; one reason is the move towards dual-income households with two high earners (helped by separate taxation, of course). It's probably as affordable for two City lawyers as it was for a well-off single-earner then.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Liar.
Send for the solicitors.
I'll be waiting.
'pouter thinks that Dan can hear him when he shouts at the TV. Bless.
Strangely that was more or less how Joseph and Mary lost the child Jesus once. Cameron is following divine precedent:
Luke 2:41-52 New International Version (NIV) The Boy Jesus at the Temple
41 Every year Jesus’ parents went to Jerusalem for the Festival of the Passover. 42 When he was twelve years old, they went up to the festival, according to the custom. 43 After the festival was over, while his parents were returning home, the boy Jesus stayed behind in Jerusalem, but they were unaware of it. 44 Thinking he was in their company, they traveled on for a day. Then they began looking for him among their relatives and friends. 45 When they did not find him, they went back to Jerusalem to look for him. 46 After three days they found him in the temple courts, sitting among the teachers, listening to them and asking them questions. 47 Everyone who heard him was amazed at his understanding and his answers. 48 When his parents saw him, they were astonished. His mother said to him, “Son, why have you treated us like this? Your father and I have been anxiously searching for you.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Liar.
Send for the solicitors.
I'll be waiting.
'pouter thinks that Dan can hear him when he shouts at the TV. Bless.
Don't tell me they have let Dan's face on the tv, I hope it was after the watershed.
There was a by-election for Wymondham Town Council today (Mid-Norfolk constituency) where the Conservatives fight under the Party label (as do the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives lost this seat to Independents at a by-election in 2012 but regained it today. Both by-elections were caused by resignations. The figures, on a 21% turnout, were: Conservative 72%; Independent 22%; Independent 6% (there were two Independent candidates). 36% of the effective votes were postals.
I believe so. Saw him wheeling his bike up Parkway a year ago. He's quite elderly now.
My best Camden celeb encounter was when I nearly got run over by a scowling Martin Amis in a huge BMW 4x4 on Arlington Road (this was when he was living in his dad's Primrose Hill gaff a couple of years ago).
Tiny novelist, massive car.
That said, two days ago I saw George Galloway on Regent's Park Road accompanied by a homely yet milfy Asian woman. He was wearing a long coat, and fedora, and looked quite stooped and aged, yet he still exuded a languid virility and menace. Like one of the older gangsters from The Sopranos.
I once met Dale Winton near Regent's Park. Beat that.
Dale Winton nearly ran me over on Gower Street in his Bentley. And he smiled as he did it.
Crikey, maybe I am being stalked by modestly famous people in big cars, all trying to run me over. Like a sort of Celebrity Automotive Hunger Games, where C listers get elevated to the A list if they squash someone in the F list.
He was parking a convertible when I saw him. I also once narrowly dodged a pick-up truck being driven by Chris Eubank around the streets of Mayfair.
I saw him stop his monster truck in the middle of a one way in Brighton, and hop out for a takeaway coffee and a bun. By the time he got back the area was gridlocked. I don't think he even noticed - just clambered back in and off he went.
After tonight's local by election results, I await the next thread where we analyse the polling and are told that UKIP are a bigger threat to the Conservatives rather than Labour where it matters most.
Twitter The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects 15m Coal Aston (NE Derbyshire) Result: CON - 46.3% (-3.3) LAB - 36.5% (-0.5) UKIP - 17.2% (+17.2)
Richard - my post wasn't directed at you, of course. I think Nick is very confident and that sometimes worries me. But his analysis is no doubt accurate in his own ultra marginal where sensible punters of either stripe would bet on Soubry to hang on.
I don't think Nick is at all nailed on to win Broxtowe. It is certainly odd that he claims there is no Tory effort on the ground.
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
That's certainly a point about the issue of doubling up a low swing: I do assume some of my personal vote has died or moved or forgotten. The absence of Tory effort on the ground has so far been just a fact, though there will be an exception on Saturday when AS is collecting signatures for a petition. The local association is elderly and small, and there aren't many nearby safe Tory seats lending a hand. There are lots of Tory letters raining in, though, and presumably they will ship people in at some point, but they're now a year behind our effort.
I think the long odds don't actually have much to do with me or AS, though - they rest on the 17% LibDem local vote last time, which was boosted by a rogue poll. The LibDem candidate is standing down and no replacement has yet been found or indeed yet sought: their effort will be modest, and a number of them are quietly helping me. So a Tory win depends either on gaining lots of other votes (from where?) or on the LibDem vote holding up (they don't expect it to) or not splitting mainly to Labour (unusual, especially as we're in coalition with them locally). On top of that, UKIP are making a serious effort, presumably because AS, like me, is pro-EU, as it's not natural UKIP territory.
Nailed on would be overstating it. But I'm fairly hopeful.
After tonight's local by election results, I await the next thread where we analyse the polling and are told that UKIP are a bigger threat to the Conservatives rather than Labour where it matters most.
Twitter The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects 15m Coal Aston (NE Derbyshire) Result: CON - 46.3% (-3.3) LAB - 36.5% (-0.5) UKIP - 17.2% (+17.2)
I believe so. Saw him wheeling his bike up Parkway a year ago. He's quite elderly now.
My best Camden celeb encounter was when I nearly got run over by a scowling Martin Amis in a huge BMW 4x4 on Arlington Road (this was when he was living in his dad's Primrose Hill gaff a couple of years ago).
Tiny novelist, massive car.
That said, two days ago I saw George Galloway on Regent's Park Road accompanied by a homely yet milfy Asian woman. He was wearing a long coat, and fedora, and looked quite stooped and aged, yet he still exuded a languid virility and menace. Like one of the older gangsters from The Sopranos.
I once met Dale Winton near Regent's Park. Beat that.
Dale Winton nearly ran me over on Gower Street in his Bentley. And he smiled as he did it.
Crikey, maybe I am being stalked by modestly famous people in big cars, all trying to run me over. Like a sort of Celebrity Automotive Hunger Games, where C listers get elevated to the A list if they squash someone in the F list.
He was parking a convertible when I saw him. I also once narrowly dodged a pick-up truck being driven by Chris Eubank around the streets of Mayfair.
I was once in a lift with Pan's People and had breakfast with the gorgeous Leslie Anne Down.
At least I sat on the same table as her, I worked in the BBC rehearsal rooms at the time.
Mention Dan Hodges and they all pop out with their character assassinations!
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be a good place to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
I stopped reading Hodges articles the day he posted on twitter that he didn't ban people from his twitter page then banned me for asking him to provide proof of the now infamous "Tory marginal poll". A poll that no one seems to have heard about, including the Tory Party, apart from Dan.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
Liar.
Send for the solicitors.
I'll be waiting.
'pouter thinks that Dan can hear him when he shouts at the TV. Bless.
Don't tell me they have let Dan's face on the tv, I hope it was after the watershed.
wow, you're a charmer, pouter. which is the nasty party, again?
Comments
No doubt there are/were nerves among the PB Lefties - the budget bounce was clear and crossover nearly occurred. Certainly some of those nerves will have been cooled, by recent polling. There is one key difference here between Labourites and the more partisan Tories on here - a general lack of complacency in the former. Just go back to 10pm during the Budget bounce - no nerves among the Tories then, they were overwrought with confidence...
Nailed on.
And every damn day until September
I was quivering by the corner flag.
Of course, there are wise heads such as Dan Hodges who rightly caution that a lead of around 3% to 4% a year out from the election means nothing very much, but they are in a minority.
Political punters of sense will, of course, look at the standard deviation of the change in lead, and the more likely sign of that change, in the year leading up to typical elections (in the UK and elsewhere), and set up their betting positions accordingly. You need to cover quite a wide range.
Well my brother tipped me that they were a good buy five years ago, with a 30% yield and the Euro going to survive.
It would have been wise to follow his advice, but I was not brave enough.
A market crash is a good time to buy. Stockmarkets are like paniking sheep, and always over act to both good and bad news.
'They never run out of things to discuss when a poll comes along not favourable to the Hodges'
Farmers & wine merchants?
Witnesses coming forward years after the event and years after evidence for or against (such as alibi) could be confirmed and proven is deeply unsatisfactory. Whatever the outcome the Clifford case has been a good example of that. The case against Mr Evans should surely never have been prosecuted with the exception of the most serious charge.
I was researching the question of determination within a reasonable time in the context of article 6 recently for a disciplinary matter. It was depressing how it had been removed of any content by the senior English judiciary despite some fairly desperate attempts by the late Lord Rodger and the now retired Lord Hope.
Shame on you!
Sorry the last sentence shoos read "wouldn't bet"
Obviously, given the slim majority, if there is a national (or at least regional) swing towards Labour, Anna Soubry is vulnerable. But she'll have the first-time incumbency advantage, she's a feisty and high-profile MP, and also Nick is partly at risk of being a victim of his own success - he managed last time to limit the swing particularly well. Kudos to him for his campaigning in 2010. However, that is a two-edged sword this time round, since it means his starting position already factors in good campaigning.
The only voluntary organisation Cameron has ever run is the Conservative Party - and he's trashed that. He is absolutely useless at getting people to work at zero or low wages, perhaps because he was paid as a SPAD for his political activities anyway.
Christians will continue to set up foodbanks and other social projects and just ignore what Cameron has to say.
1. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/
2. He was offered a job in the party if David Miliband won. Ed won, David didn't and he missed out on the job.
I kind of agree with you re Camden Market, it is a remarkable and unique place (seriously worth visiting, for those who sneer at it), and it is rightfully in London's top ten attractions, but.... £0.4 billion? For just a chunk?
Must be a bubble.
And yet I read a very intriguing remark the other day, I think it was on the Guardian website after some property porn piece. And it said:
"If I had £100 for every time someone has told me, in the last 30 years, that 'London property cannot get any more expensive', then I would now be able to afford a London property. But of course I can't. Because London property is too expensive."
It is the bubble that never bursts. But it must. Yet it doesn't.
Absolutely Sean T. As I've said before, I underestimated the demographics, particularly of the top 1% where their spending peaks much later than the average as a result mainly of having kids later, and those kids flying the nest later by going to university on average far more than the general population at large. But that's now changing, the baby boom peaked in the early 1960's, those people are now in their early 50's just at the point they're realising, heck we've got a retirement to save up for now. So the whole demographic balance is starting to shift against property, not to mention the credit bubble. Put those 2 together, and it makes for a deadly combination going forward.
What's amazing is the London bubble relative to even the rest of the South East. Prices in places like Milton Keynes and Reading are still nowhere near their August 2007 peak. And I was reading an article about how central London prices have raced ahead more than 20% relative to outer London boroughs like Bromley, Havering, Hounslow and Hillingdon. Before I was born, over 35 years ago, there was no London premium relative to the rest of the South East, when the general sentiment was better to be away from the negatives of big city life - how times have changed. But what swings in one direction usually ultimately swings back in the other direction.......eventually.
It's so transparent - never, ever do they actually address the rather good points he makes. Today's and yesterday's articles would be good places to start, but I'm not holding my breath.
The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects now
Belle Vue (Cumbria CC) Result: LAB - 45.8% (-20.1) CON - 35.3% (+1.2) UKIP - 19.0% (+19.0)
About 1 in every 2,600 people on Earth live in the West Midlands conurbation.
Ukip +4, LDs -4. Those debates were a good idea for Clegg then: http://bit.ly/OIB5iG
Nail. Head.
Poor old Calamity Clegg and his ostrich faction of inept spinners. What will they do now?
The one very clear thing lib dems (those that are left) will remember about the EU election campaign now is Clegg's 'master strategy' and just how badly that went. Clegg is personally going to have to eat the May local and EU election results since he will have nobody to blame them on but himself.
I rather like Anna Soubry as a pro Europe Conservative she is one of a dying breed, but Nick P would probably still get my vote.
Previoulsy it was the same old bitter shit, just on different days. Just think a few more percentage points more for David and this fecking idiot would have been running the media dept of the Labour Party. The current PB Hodges would be PB Littlejohns and would be giving Dan piles of abuse. I have always thought Dan was a complete and utter belter and have told him to his face on more than one occasion.
What has happened is more that the central London premium has spread outwards.
I think the seat has an embarrassment of riches. Obviously I would vote for Nick but I do like Soubry too
http://youtu.be/cknGCCG-XKU
And there are a great many people outside London who feel repulsed by it all. House prices in the North East for example have barely recovered at all since 2009. Never has London felt like such a separate enclave to so many.
Sign O' the Times
But get Clegg in those debates rather than Farage, thems the rules. Public will love it
Think of him as the 21st century Disraeli or Thatcher. The way the Tories absorb new influences and incorporate these into their philosophy is the secret of their longevity.
Flint Trelawny (Flintshire CBC) Result:
LAB - 38.6% (-17.9)
UKIP - 28.8% (+28.8)
IND - 26.7% (-2.9)
CON - 6.0% (+6.0)
Good result for UKIP!
http://www.in-focus.co.uk/ent_thumb//f40b4.jpg
Dear oh dear oh dear.
He's a clickbaiter and only an average one at that. Nobody takes clickbaiters seriously.
They are the performing dogs/toy poodles of fleet street producing interminable small variations on usually one subject and viewpoint they can be relied on to beat away at endlessly and impotently.
Oh and for the out of touch old biddies who are still deluding themselves that Shapps Bingo stupidity was a triumph, why did he almost lose his job for it then?
A Tory MP said: “It is ridiculous that Grant Shapps has had to take the blame for this poster. When it went wrong they could easily have defended him and said that it was a team effort, which it was. Instead they have hung him out to dry.”
Another MP said that Mr Shapps had not wanted to defend himself for fear of offending the Chancellor: “I’m not Grant’s greatest fan but he has been treated pretty shabbily.”
But no attempt was made by the Tory high command to counter claims that Mr Shapps was to blame for the original poster.
On Thursday morning, when he was interviewed on Radio 4's Today programme, the Chancellor sounded evasive when asked whether the advert was patronising. By yesterday, there were reports surfacing that Mr Shapps faced the sack, with Justice Secretary Chris Grayling tipped as a potential replacement.
A Tory MP and a supporter of Mr Shapps admitted the Tory chairman could have spotted there was a problem and refused to send it out. But he said the same applied to other senior aides, including Lynton Crosby, the Tories’ election strategist.
Mr Shapps was unavailable for comment on Saturday night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10716758/Eyes-down-.-.-.-how-Osborne-dodged-blame-for-bingo-gaffe.html
Of course it must be a particularly sore spot for the amusing scottish tory surgers who adore wee Danny.
libdemvoice @libdemvoice Mar 20
"I thought it was a spoof" Danny Alexander on Shapps' "patronising" Bingo tweet http://ldv.org.uk/38721
*chortle*
Again I have personal experience. Very profitable it was too, thank you (a flat which more than tripled in value in about five years, sold in 1978 to a Kuwaiti).
The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects 6m
Flint Trelawny (Flintshire CBC) Result: LAB - 38.6% (-17.9) UKIP - 28.8% (+28.8) IND - 26.7% (-2.9) CON - 6.0% (+6.0)
Telegraph writer David Thomas's parents bought a five bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in 1964...
...for £8,000.
That's about £137,000 taking inflation into account.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/10377807/Well-never-have-it-so-good-again.html
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9182061/blundering-on/
"Yet again, the Conservative party has reminded us that it is quite capable of losing the next election. The events leading up to Maria Miller’s resignation are entirely consistent with a party that is so gauche, so accident-prone, so surprised by basic news events that it can make Ed Miliband seem positively presidential. "
And Jesus sayeth thus: "We are all the Lord's children. For lo, hath he not just absent-mindedly left us all in the pub?" #CameronJesus
LOL
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-41253044.html/svr/2702;jsessionid=4564C07B4774FDBFC8C8B1A405B24BC3?showcase=true&premiumA=true
Amen!
Ah, bless him.
Luke 2:41-52
New International Version (NIV)
The Boy Jesus at the Temple
41 Every year Jesus’ parents went to Jerusalem for the Festival of the Passover. 42 When he was twelve years old, they went up to the festival, according to the custom. 43 After the festival was over, while his parents were returning home, the boy Jesus stayed behind in Jerusalem, but they were unaware of it. 44 Thinking he was in their company, they traveled on for a day. Then they began looking for him among their relatives and friends. 45 When they did not find him, they went back to Jerusalem to look for him. 46 After three days they found him in the temple courts, sitting among the teachers, listening to them and asking them questions. 47 Everyone who heard him was amazed at his understanding and his answers. 48 When his parents saw him, they were astonished. His mother said to him, “Son, why have you treated us like this? Your father and I have been anxiously searching for you.
Conservative 72%; Independent 22%; Independent 6% (there were two Independent candidates). 36% of the effective votes were postals.
Twitter
The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects 15m
Coal Aston (NE Derbyshire) Result: CON - 46.3% (-3.3) LAB - 36.5% (-0.5) UKIP - 17.2% (+17.2)
I think the long odds don't actually have much to do with me or AS, though - they rest on the 17% LibDem local vote last time, which was boosted by a rogue poll. The LibDem candidate is standing down and no replacement has yet been found or indeed yet sought: their effort will be modest, and a number of them are quietly helping me. So a Tory win depends either on gaining lots of other votes (from where?) or on the LibDem vote holding up (they don't expect it to) or not splitting mainly to Labour (unusual, especially as we're in coalition with them locally). On top of that, UKIP are making a serious effort, presumably because AS, like me, is pro-EU, as it's not natural UKIP territory.
Nailed on would be overstating it. But I'm fairly hopeful.
At least I sat on the same table as her, I worked in the BBC rehearsal rooms at the time.