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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: April 10th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: April 10th 2014
Belle Vue on Cumbria (Labour Defence)
Result of last election to council (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrats 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8)
Result of last election in ward (2013): Labour 760 (66%), Conservatives 393 (34%)
Candidates duly nominated: Christine Bowditch (Lab), Nigel Christian (Con), John Stanyer (UKIP)
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Not a joke, and a sad commentary on what this once free country has become
There are worse (and better) capital cities in mittel Europa than Bucharest.
Worth a visit.
http://bit.ly/1iBgshr
I have only been to Doncaster Races so can't compare with this end.
Nasdaq drops 3.1% or 129.79 points.
It will be interesting to see what material etc is provided.
Time for more quantitative stealing?
The Dow and NASDAQ are reacting to poorer than expected US manufacturing statistics released today.
A correction certainly, a crash most unlikely.
Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.
FPT: Mr. Carnyx, I really like Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar (and highly recommend them) but have struggled to finish the first of the 2/4 volumes I own of his work on Napoleon. I've read the first chapter of Gustavus Adolphus, and it's just bridging the gap between the ancient world and the end (ish) of the medieval period.
If you happen to buy a physical copy of TA Dodge's work please make sure it's full and not abridged. Some books of his have been cut short by a few hundred words but are not marked as abridged.
He might as well...he has copied nearly everything else.
'It's only a matter of time until Les Balls spin that the Tories let immigration run riot 1997-2010'
The ice pixie pretending Labour will be tough on immigration is at least good comedy.
Repeat viewing in case you missed it.
Actually Nasdaq has fallen because many stocks have no clothes. Something like Gids!
References could be made to cost of living, local produce and tourism (Doncaster Market is apparantly Britain's best market, although that must mean the others are bloody crap).
Cameron could combine it with a visit to Cleethorpes with lots of references to SamCam being a local, old memories of trips to the seaside etc. Now I don't know if SamCam ever did have trips to Cleethorpes when young but it would be impossible to prove that she didn't.
And the really clever party of this photostunt is that EdM, being a local MP, would be forced to imitate it and would only succeed in looking dorky.
They should fly in from Bucharest
I believe the ONS's excuse for this undercounting is that they didn't realise Eastern Europeans were flying via regional airports.
We love you loooooong time big boy.
Yup David, it does need a little work.
So I suspect my first sight of Romanians will be at the supermarket, I suspect their lack of affluence will differentiate them from the Poles, Lithuanians and Argentine rugby players I tend to notice.
[On a serious note, Hannibal did take significant losses through the Alpine march, but these did not prevent him scoring numerous consecutive victories. The reason he failed to win was ultimately a combination of lack of siege equipment, very strong loyalty to Rome by her allies, Roman pathological patriotism and a lack of support from Carthage for political reasons].
Would anyone like to speculate what the effect of an English Conservative politician making a VERY provocative statement would be ?
For example referring to Scotland as a country of drunken layabouts, socialist parasites etc, saying that Scotland was to blame for the financial crisis and recession.
And here's the best bit saying that after Scotland votes NO that taxes will be raised on Scotland and services, benefits and public sector pay cut in order to punish Scotland for 'its crimes'.
Because maybe there's one or two English Conservative politicians who would to see Scotland independent with the resulting damage that would do to the Labour party.
The Conservative and Anti Unionist Party?
And finally investors are starting to worry about the lack of growth, well this is just but the start.........finally. As for Avery's prediction of Conservative Labour crossover, you can forget it thanks to UKIP and the oncoming economic storm. I remember sending an email to Double Carpet over a year ago saying that April 2014 was going to be an extremely difficult moment. Am expecting the next 3 or 4 weeks to be very problematic, with some potentially very big developments around Easter. Very exciting times, certainly not one for the faint hearted right now.
April 2014 was going to be an extremely difficult moment.
Not that I am casting aspersions on your predictions, but have you not mentioned "imminent melt down" once or twice before?
twitter.com/Sun_Politics/status/454361941285154816
Although I think they need to work on their wikipedia page as it looks like a poorer version of Albert Square:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Camden_markets_entrance.JPG
If the economy continues to grow
If wages outstrip inflation
If Ukip returns to the Tories
If Lib Dems return home
If Ukip only take off the Tories in safe Tory areas
If Labour voters don't vote tactically in Lib Dem seats
If Toby gets his way and Ukip and Tory voters vote tactically
If Ukip goes to 5%
If the Lib Dems head back towards 20%
If Ed remains crap
If house prices soar
If Scotland votes for independence
If Labours campaign is crap
If Lynton gets his finger out
If unemployment keeps falling
If Cameron goes *ahem* cast iron on the in/out referendum
If the Tory MP's of the right stop their suicide mission
If the unions pull the plug on Labours money so they cannot fund a campaign
If there is a breakout of war
If the falling Tory membership still manages to campaign hard
If only they had got the boundary changes through
If there is swingback
If Ashcrofts marginal polling is wrong
If the Tory vote was spread out more like Labours and not building up in seats that are safe
If Ed is found eating kittens or some other scandal
If the Lib Dems get rid of Nick Clegg and replace him with someone more left wing
If Ukip don't stand against Euro-sceptic Tory MP's
If the focus goes back onto the two Ed's
If Labours manifesto is torn apart by the press
If the country sees sense
If the right wing voters hold their nose about Cameron and vote Tory
If the voters realise what a fantastic job the coalition has been doing
If the raising of the minimum wage will sway floating voters toffs do have hearts
If Labour polling figures are being exaggerated
If the electoral bias in FPTP is not as big as it has been historically
If the press decide to attack the two Eds with even more venom in the run up to the election
If the Ukip supporters realise that voting Labour means the will be less chance of a Euro referendum
Pick you favourites, hold them close to your chest lovingly and keep repeating them until we get the forever moving date for the crossover in the polls to actually happen
This is not amusing any more.. A joke is funny maybe a few times if you stretch it, but eventually its just a pile of doodoo as is your meme.
As for YouGov, watching it from day to day is curiously restful, like the bad old days when goldfish were kept in bowls (does anyone still do that?) and you could watch them swimming round and round forever.
It is utterly shocking. If the trial judge, Mr Justice Nicol, didn't say "you are free to go", Mr Griffiths QC should have immediately applied for his discharge from custody. If the judge did say, "you are free to go", the prison authorities were in contempt, as well as potentially liable for false imprisonment. Once acquitted, there is no difference between a defendant remanded on bail or into custody. Sean, things might have changed since your trial. Many of the courts at the Bailey have secure docks now, so the defendant cannot leap therefrom. Court 1 still has a traditional dock though.
Nice to see you get passionate about the Union on PB, but aren't you being premature?
There are two big sets of elections due in May, but you want Labour to fight on a third front, the independence referendum?
When, not if, the Tories are thrashed in May, this will be a huge fillip for No, no chance of a Tory Government in the GE. (Sorry PB Tories).
But to cheer you up, I offer my own help in the No campaigning.
In 2006, Labour education minister, Alan Johnston, proposed a measure that would have seriously hampered the setting up of new Catholic schools in England. Despite not affecting Catholic education in Scotland, Catholic MPs from the West of Scotland helped not only block the measure, but reverse it.
The proportion of Catholics in Scotland is much higher than in England, so for English Catholics it is definitely Better Together.
Anyone want to arrange a speaking tour of Catholic parishes in Scotland for me?
We have seen this in rape cases where public policy has made it extremely difficult to drop a case if it has any chance of getting to the jury. Let them take the responsibility is the weak way out and the consequence is more trials than there should be.
Remember earlier in the year when the media was full of articles predicting a new stock market peak "any day now, possibly even tomorrow" and a year end FTSE100 of 7,500 or higher ?
David Cameron says the Big Society was "invented by Jesus" but will his profession of faith appeal to voters? #c4news http://bit.ly/1i5PXmL
"Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago; I just want to see more of it,"
"If there are things that are stopping you from doing more, think of me as a giant Dyno-Rod" he added.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The comedy fop is well and truly back. Only a day after the hilarity of Miller and Fabricant.
No doubt the PB tories will have been cheering Dyno-Fop on as he preached the 'good news'.
Get rid of the tatty stalls and flog off the land to profligate foreigners.
There are understandable public policy reasons for treating victims of sexual offences with dignity. The problem with that approach, however, in the context of the criminal justice system, is that it presumes what the Crown are required to prove.
'What shall we talk about on "Political" Betting tomorrow? Universities? Dickens? Trains? Positive Discrimination? Swingback? Cornflakes?'
Surely the truly awesome 6% lead held by the only opposition party after 4 years of austerity and a year before a GE.
And as for a piece of Camden Market going for £400m, well greater fool them - it could only happen right at the top of a credit bubble. Whilst people have forgotten the lessons from the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, and the property bubble in 2007, I don't think they'll forget the lessons of this one bursting in a hurry. As they say, you can forgive something twice, but a third time.......no, no and thrice no!!
There is a big slew of companies starting to default right now in China, I think it is just but the start of it all: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-09/asian-data-double-whammy-sparks-fomc-exuberance-unwind