This poll brings some good news for Labour and Starmer – politicalbetting.com
This poll brings some good news for Labour and Starmer – politicalbetting.com
This polling from Ipsos in my humble opinion brings good news for Labour, around the time of this polling Ipsos had Reform polling 34% and Labour polling 22% which isn’t out of line with other pollsters.
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Great for Farage, bad for Badenoch. Bad too for Starmer, who surely benefits from a divided right. I sense the Ref-Con crossover is getting dangerously close to escape velocity.
It looks as if 27% want neither Labour nor Reform at any price.
As an aside, I do wonder how things would have turned out if Johnson had decided to have a party of national government during the crisis. Given the crisis facing the country, it may have made sense. If he had, things might be very different now...
Given the weeks of bad headlines and the ID card misstep last week, I think it’s probably gone as well or slightly better than they could have hoped for.
Starmer certainly looks safe to me until 2026 now. The locals will still be the point of danger.
Whether the us v Reform thing will actually work, whether Labour has the discipline to stay on message on all this immigration stuff, and whether the budget will derail things - all risks for the future. For now I think we can at least look at the government and see some kind of driving vision, even if it’s what they’re against rather than what they’re for. That’s better than what they came into the conference with.
They matter less than LDs at the moment. The LDs are, electorally, Labour proxy in about 100 seats, so they count.
Plastic patriots: All great stuff!
Labour party wave flags at conference:
Plastic patriots: Burn them!!!!
Starmer was impressive yesterday as was Lammy. Labour have taken a year and a half to get the tone right. Don't row back.
For Labour to win the next election they will have to deliver rather than rely on emotion.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1973278620945883231
These Russians really need to stop playing with matches!
The far right can be total arseholes and win votes by some sort of magical osmosis. Their opponents must do everything right and never even venture a controversial opinion lest they provoke the far right even more.
The playing field is slopy.
Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.
Tactical voting may very much help Labour and hurt Reform (I think this is why their journey to a majority is difficult) but I don’t think it will be an election winning or losing element in itself. Labour will need to combine it with some measurable success.
Similarly it’s entirely possible tactical voting will also work the other way, and that’s another reason why I think a HP seems fairly likely.
Either that or just kill one with a spade and leave it on a post as a warning to other badgers.
Farage tried it 2014.
If Starmer wants something to boast about he can claim the increase in the stock market and the consequent boost to DC pension pots.
Though, I suspect, that there are various leftists who would regard higher share prices and bigger DC pension pots as bad things.
But Labour weren’t the government then.
Do you regard higher share prices / values as a good / bad thing ?
Do you regard higher house prices / values as a good / bad thing ?
Even now a single MP defecting when in Opposition isn’t much to write home about.
If they can get someone who was in the Cabinet 18 months ago, then the media might care for more than half a day.
That is patriotic national renewal.
StaLLMer
I think Farage's Americanisation of the culture wars may harm him a bit. We're not the USA.
30,000+ members including Tommy Robinson and supported by Musk.
It will take some support from the right wing of Reform.
Advance UK is at 70s on Betfair to take most seats at the next general Election!
Shorter odds than the Greens
IIRC similar things were proposed as an anti-kids device a few years back, as kids tend to hear it more than adults.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-him
"Chloe Deakin, an English teacher at Dulwich college, wrote in 1981: “You will recall that at the recent, and lengthy, meeting about the selection of prefects, the remark by a colleague that Farage was ‘a fascist but that was no reason why he would not make a good prefect’ invoked considerable reaction from members of the common room.
“Another colleague, who teaches the boy, described his publicly professed racist and neo-fascist views, and he cited a particular incident in which Farage was so offensive to a boy in his set, that he had to be removed from the lesson.”
One Jewish pupil claimed Farage would sidle up to him and say: “Hitler was right,” or “Gas ’em.” Another claimed Farage had a preoccupation with his initials, NF, as they were the same as those of the National Front."
I know I'm probably being silly, and that carelessly discarded matches are by far the most probable explanation, but the more these incidents happen, the more I wonder...
Much as the Canadian Liberals beat Poilievre's Conservatives earlier this year by squeezing NDP and Green voters. Albeit Labour might need a new leader as the Liberals replaced Trudeau with Carney
AirPods3 are Babelfish
Years ago a local corner shop to me put one outside tuned to about 20kHz, which was inaudible to anyone aged over about 16 but a really loud and annoying squeal to anyone younger. Dogs went mad as they got close to it.
Police were called and didn’t understand what was happening, because they couldn’t hear it either!
There’s precisely no chance that “Tommy” and friends make it through an election campaign without a lot a very unsavoury characters revealed to be standing, and without one of their senior spokespeople saying something considered totally outrageous to 99% of the population.
They’ll also probably get caught for many breaches of election law if they try and take money from foreigners.
Tommy Robinson is a thug, and the crossover between Tommy Robinson fans and Tesla fans is... well, it's Elon Musk.
On the subject of Advance, I see two possible impact on Reform.
One is a positive one: there are going to be plenty of Reform-curious voters on the Tory right, who are nervous about voting for a genuinely hard right party. The existence of Advance shows that Reform is not hard right, and is merely a bit -errr- righter than the Conservatives. This benefits Reform somewhat.
On the other hand, there are going to be some seats where the BNP saved their deposit (there were 70 of these in 2010!), and where Advance may manage to achieve similarly. In those seats, it's possible the success of Advance could result in Reform failing to take a seat. But Reform is likely to win most of these seats fairly comfortably; so there are perhaps only a dozen seats where Advance's ... errr ... advance could impact Reform.
Between that on one side, and the Reform ultras on the other, there would be no credible space to occupy, given their record in the previous government.
They were heard in complete silence. Trump asked them to applaud and they didn't.
I'd love to eavesdrop on the conversations currently going on between the top generals.
It's approaching crunch time with the government shutdown and troops on the streets.
I'm waiting for some senior Republican Senators (Cruz et al) to come together and oppose Trump.
Very very few left in GOP who have the guts to take this on.
Taxes going up under Labour though
This has gone way beyond Jan 6th.
Or perhaps the military will have a word. "Listen sunshine"
Bear in mind, too, that Russia is so large that it is *highly* dependent on petroleum products in every part of their economy.
Off to buy a spade, an ultrasonic deterrent (badgers not neighbours) and some dog food. Will see what happens overnight as the area is covered by cameras. We can see where and when it arrives so should be able to check the effectiveness or otherwise.
Fair assessment and it all comes down to the Senedd and Holyrood May 26 plus other locals results which at present look dire for labour
I'd say he's unlikely to make that mistake, but the more that he's influenced by the US online right the greater the chance of him making that mistake.
Vets, I want y’all to remember the most tedious, pointless all-hands call of your careers. Standing at attention on a flight deck in the sun.
Now imagine instead you’re a flag officer and you just left your post on an overnight taxpayer funded jet. All so that a washed out O4 can lecture you about grooming standards for an hour in front of a big flag.
Point is, this ain’t some new “warrior ethos”—it’s the same tedious bureaucratic horseshit that defines service members lives, but ratcheted up to 11.
Hegseth is out here worried about drumming out Black and ginger soldiers because their shave bumps won’t go away. What he ain’t worried about is our epidemic of suicide among service members and veterans. He ain’t worried about defense contractors gold-plating every contract to exploit tax payers. He ain’t worried about how our dwindling force means service members are facing higher optempos and greater strains than ever before, pushing em till they break.
Hegseth doesn’t give a shit about what sailors on the deck plate care about. There’s nothing fresh here. Every vet has seen a middle-grade officer with a chip on his shoulder before—he ain’t nothing new.
https://x.com/votemikepruitt/status/1973086712810123673
I was recently chatting to a friend from uni. I made the old aside that people turn more right-wing as they grow older. She turned to me and said: "Not you; you've become more left-wing!"
Which we then discussed.
She has actually made the reverse journey, and has become somewhat less left-wing as the decades have gone by.
Fun aside, I think I did the patent examination and/or search on the original Mosquito patent. Or it may have been a similar device and the Mosquito patent came up in the search.
In a similar manner, I keep on referring to Hegseth as Hesketh, after the 1970s F1 team...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hesketh_Racing
Labours More in Common Bounce disintegrates as they siip to joint second with the Tories
Weekly voting intention - all fieldwork before Starmer speech - Reform lead back up to 10. Tories and Labour tie on 20%.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+2)
🌹 LAB 20% (-5)
🌳 CON 20% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+1)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)
❓OTH 4% (+1)
N = 2,012 | 26-29/9 | Change w 22/9
You can approximate the proportion of refinery capacity that was exported using the percentages in the Russian media reports. 62% of refinery capacity is supplying 80% of Russia's domestic gasoline needs. Therefore ~22% of Russian refinery capacity was used for exports of refined products*.
One consequence of this is that the next 5% of refinery capacity that is damaged will have a greater impact on the domestic Russian economy than an earlier 5%. The crude processing unit hit today represents about 2% of Russian refining capacity.
Ukraine have also recently hit some of Russia's export infrastructure, but you'd expect that to show up on global oil prices if they made serious inroads into reducing Russian crude oil exports.
* I believe Britain was an importer of diesel from Russia before February 2022.