The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
Apart from that, a great day for the anti-Farage crowd
Wait a gosh darn minute, I thought it was Middle Eastern, East African and South Asian men of fighting age we were supposed to be bricking ourselves over? What are their swan eating habits?
What we can glean from the Boriswave in its international context is that rather than pushing extreme policy, Boris Johnson was passive in the face of groupthink. The machine did what the machine does. And it churned out the same policy in most developed countries.
Sounds like the Sir Humphreys were in charge when Boris was in power, even more so than normal; I'd agree with that.
We all knew that Johnson was just a front man, and that his effectiveness as PM would be determined by the calibre of people appointed to serve under him. We lucked out with the appointment of Kate Bingham to deal with vaccines, but everything else was various shades of disaster.
Though you have to think that Cummings would have been able to see what the consequences of the Boriswave would be, and prevented it from happening, but even his vision needed testing from time to time.
Can I put on the record how much I despise the phrase 'lucked out'? To me it sounds like 'luck was out', so the opposite of the intended meaning. Am I the only one?
My partner is a Kiwi and in NZ it still has the meaning out of luck.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
Apart from that, a great day for the anti-Farage crowd
Wait a gosh darn minute, I thought it was Middle Eastern, East African and South Asian men of fighting age we were supposed to be bricking ourselves over? What are their swan eating habits?
They tend to prefer it in an easy to cook curry, especially Swan Vesta.
Pb scooped the BBC (and the government?) by a week or so.
The speed with which the government has acted on this is lamentable. We are probably within 10 days of production restarting and we are still talking about possible support. Many of the suppliers will have been without work for weeks already and for some it is probably too late.
I think the government needs to give much more serious consideration to cyber attacks, both in prevention and amelioration when they occur. We have seen a few major UK companies very badly damaged by this already. It is unlikely to stop. The economic effects are sufficiently large to engage the national interest.
They are just getting around to working that out, too.
The idea for JLR is to pay the suppliers to stockpile parts. That's not a thing which would be practical for more than a few weeks at most, and risks leaving them with a glut of stock which they'll then struggle to sell.
I think the reality is that there's no great way to mitigate a very lengthy disruption to a large company's business, other than to prevent it.
I wonder how much cyber protection and cyber insurance JLR had.
Insurance does nothing to help for the knock on effects. And the money could arguably be better spent on prevention.
If we are to start regularly paying out hundreds of millions to maintain UK firms (and perhaps we should) then lets add a levy to the biggest companies profits to cover those costs.
It’s not as simple as maintaining UK firms, JLR doesn’t need to have manufacturing here, it doesn’t need to use UK parts suppliers. JLR are losing (according to Today’s two different guests this morning) between £50m and “hundreds of millions” per week.
As we are seeing with the life sciences industry, if you make the financial environment trickier for companies, especially global companies, they actually do vote with their feet.
You do realise that the Lifesciences companies are currently in the middle of a negotiation on the NHS rebate? They had a tough meeting with Reeves (not only was she was inflexible but she was shouty and ill-prepared). And then all these coordinated announcements (not actions) are made as a way to put pressure on them
That was the trigger, but it goes a lot deeper than that.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
Apart from that, a great day for the anti-Farage crowd
Wait a gosh darn minute, I thought it was Middle Eastern, East African and South Asian men of fighting age we were supposed to be bricking ourselves over? What are their swan eating habits?
After Gary Glitter, Richard Huckle, Mark Towner and many more, we should be bricking ourselves over peripatetic sex tourists who travel the world looking for 'younger' women to shag whilst off their head on drink and drugs. A damned danger to women, they are.
Don't panic @Leon it's probably just another FON outlier.
I know you love to hate on FON but they have proven themselves quite accurate in several elections (tho not all)
"The BBC’s Projected National Share put Reform ~30%, Labour ~20%, Lib Dem ~17%, Conservatives ~15%, Greens ~11% for the May 1, 2025 locals. Elections Etc
"Find Out Now later highlighted that its own pre-election figures had Reform at ~29% and ~8-point lead over Labour. Others definitely understated Reform"
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
*Work in this instance being "collecting my free AirPods 3 so I can take them abroad next week and test them for a Basalt Bliss magazine article, about hilarious mistranslations"
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
There have been cases in the past of migrants killing and eating swans, not realising that they're a protected animal in this country. I remember reading about it at the time, but it may have been 10 years ago.
Citation please. A court conviction report would be helpful.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
Seems unlikely for the LDs to rise that much. After all - they've just had their conference (so in the public eye a bit) and against the worst Tory performance for decades they still only grabbed 12,2 % of the votes.
This is the oddest result. In the smartphone age it's far easier than ever it was to look up both meaning and references.
Interesting thread.
Everybody cites this study on how 2/3rds of English majors cannot understand the first paragraph of Bleak House—I strongly recommend reading the study itself. It is very enlightening on why the students are failing... https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1970877699603448294
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
'Go back to your consitutuencies and prepare to lose again...'
I still think Reform are currently the Alliance in 1981 and Labour are the Tories in 1981. Not saying a far off war will turn things around but making predictions about events in 2028-29 is tricky.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
I took it to mean "the rise in the Lib Dems will continue" - and the LDs will become the Opposition to the Tories?
Which is quite optimistic for the Libs, but not impossible
It's a damn shame @williamglenn was drummed off the site, he had an interesting take on secular changes in VI
Its one of the possibles. The LDs overtook the Tories in a YG poll in May but its taken them nearly 100 polls to repeat. If they post a few leads with different pollsters then crossover may have been achieved. 14 point difference between MiC and FoNs LabCon total score is a bit of an eye waterer though.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
Apart from that, a great day for the anti-Farage crowd, tho we expect no better from a dribble-flecked clown like @IanB2 so he can be forgiven
The signs on the Cam between Cambridge and Ely warning about taking fish are in English, Polish and Romanian. No Hindi, no Gujarati. So it's not some generic diversity push. They know what they're doing.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
I took it to mean "the rise in the Lib Dems will continue" - and the LDs will become the Opposition to the Tories?
Which is quite optimistic for the Libs, but not impossible
It's a damn shame @williamglenn was drummed off the site, he had an interesting take on secular changes in VI
Its one of the possibles. The LDs overtook the Tories in a YG poll in May but its taken them nearly 100 polls to repeat. If they post a few leads with different pollsters then crossover may have been achieved. 14 point difference between MiC and FoNs LabCon total score is a bit of an eye waterer though.
Jenrick becomes Tory leader and Reform lose circa nine or ten points whilst the Tories gain nine or ten points. It's all very fluid in that direction.
New Public First research finds the benefits would reach £40bn a year - through higher construction output then through raised productivity that reshapes the capital's growth https://x.com/aireyj/status/1971112615960248541
Labour have already left it late enough that the benefits wouldn't start to seriously kick in until 2028. Another year of muddle and they will be too late.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
I took it to mean "the rise in the Lib Dems will continue" - and the LDs will become the Opposition to the Tories?
Which is quite optimistic for the Libs, but not impossible
It's a damn shame @williamglenn was drummed off the site, he had an interesting take on secular changes in VI
Its one of the possibles. The LDs overtook the Tories in a YG poll in May but its taken them nearly 100 polls to repeat. If they post a few leads with different pollsters then crossover may have been achieved. 14 point difference between MiC and FoNs LabCon total score is a bit of an eye waterer though.
Jenrick becomes Tory leader and Reform lose circa nine or ten points whilst the Tories gain nine or ten points. It's all very fluid in that direction.
They could put Maggie in to bat and right now it would make little difference. Its a case of plough on.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
How ? It just makes him look unserious and believing in conspiracy theories .
You'd hope that we Brits are a bit more sceptical and worldly wise than all those credulous Americans. But then you look at some of the stuff that someone of middling intelligence like our Leon often comes out with, and begin to wonder.
He's on retainer to spread that
Swan eating has been recorded amongst East European migrants for two decades - multiple reports
It is also documented by Ben Judah in his book on Underclass London, "This is London". That's Ben Judah who is now a senior Labour government advisor
As for the carp claim, there is actually a man employed to go round stopping Eastern Europeans eating carp
"My job is telling people from eastern Europe not to eat carp from UK rivers"
Apart from that, a great day for the anti-Farage crowd, tho we expect no better from a dribble-flecked clown like @IanB2 so he can be forgiven
The signs on the Cam between Cambridge and Ely warning about taking fish are in English, Polish and Romanian. No Hindi, no Gujarati. So it's not some generic diversity push. They know what they're doing.
Then again, the Cam Conservators cannot even keep the river open for boaters...
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
To get to a duopoly in FPTP the two parties have to build large coalitions. Given the more fragmented nature of society following the decline of the church and trade unions, it is inevitable that any large parties will be the creation of fractious coalitions.
I'm surprised that the voting system hasn't come under more scrutiny given the huge majority Labour won on such a low share of the vote and the depths of unpopularity they have since rapidly plumbed. A more proportional voting system is required to now accurately represent British society in the Commons.
New Public First research finds the benefits would reach £40bn a year - through higher construction output then through raised productivity that reshapes the capital's growth https://x.com/aireyj/status/1971112615960248541
Labour have already left it late enough that the benefits wouldn't start to seriously kick in until 2028. Another year of muddle and they will be too late.
Starmer is finished already. Remember Mrs May's Conservatives were dead in the water in 2019 and in December Johnson won a landslide through smoke, mirrors and bullshit. I am not suggesting it will happen but if it could Burnham is your man.
I am also convinced Reform will unravel under scrutiny. They have so far had none. I suppose we can debate whether scrutiny ever happens or whether they get a free ride all the way to the next election.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
To get to a duopoly in FPTP the two parties have to build large coalitions. Given the more fragmented nature of society following the decline of the church and trade unions, it is inevitable that any large parties will be the creation of fractious coalitions.
I'm surprised that the voting system hasn't come under more scrutiny given the huge majority Labour won on such a low share of the vote and the depths of unpopularity they have since rapidly plumbed. A more proportional voting system is required to now accurately represent British society in the Commons.
I'm just getting a bit excited. I think most likely is LD v Ref in the Shires, Lab v Ref in the towns, Lab v Con in the cities.
New Public First research finds the benefits would reach £40bn a year - through higher construction output then through raised productivity that reshapes the capital's growth https://x.com/aireyj/status/1971112615960248541
Labour have already left it late enough that the benefits wouldn't start to seriously kick in until 2028. Another year of muddle and they will be too late.
Starmer is finished already. Remember Mrs May's Conservatives were dead in the water in 2019 and in December Johnson won a landslide through smoke, mirrors and bullshit. I am not suggesting it will happen but if it could Burnham is your man.
I am also convinced Reform will unravel under scrutiny. They have so far had none. I suppose we can debate whether scrutiny ever happens or whether they get a free ride all the way to the next election.
I think Burnham has jumped the gun and he’s starting to draw fire judging by reports in the Guardian saying that the party would try and ignore but have now started to go for him.
I think he should have waited, seen if his ally won deputy then used her to start prepping the ground for him.
He just looks a bit silly if there isn’t now a big groundswell during the conference.
New Public First research finds the benefits would reach £40bn a year - through higher construction output then through raised productivity that reshapes the capital's growth https://x.com/aireyj/status/1971112615960248541
Labour have already left it late enough that the benefits wouldn't start to seriously kick in until 2028. Another year of muddle and they will be too late.
Except housing starts in London have collapsed.
Because of lead time, this means that there is no way to meet the targets before the next election.
Part of it is building regulations that fight themselves (see discussion yesterday here).
Part of it is uncertainty about taxation - will the government go ahead with the demented scheme to charge vastly more for disposing of rubble and soil? Which will add £55k to the cost a single house.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
To get to a duopoly in FPTP the two parties have to build large coalitions. Given the more fragmented nature of society following the decline of the church and trade unions, it is inevitable that any large parties will be the creation of fractious coalitions.
I'm surprised that the voting system hasn't come under more scrutiny given the huge majority Labour won on such a low share of the vote and the depths of unpopularity they have since rapidly plumbed. A more proportional voting system is required to now accurately represent British society in the Commons.
I'm just getting a bit excited. I think most likely is LD v Ref in the Shires, Lab v Ref in the towns, Lab v Con in the cities.
Con vs Ref in the rural East and North, Ref or Con vs LD in the shires depending which shire, Lab vs Ref Towns, Lab vs Greens/Corbyn big cities
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
Begins to. The natural state of FPTP is two parties which I'm starting to suspect are LD and Reform. Con and Lab are too reliant on discordant coalitions.
'Go back to your consitutuencies and prepare to lose again...'
I still think Reform are currently the Alliance in 1981 and Labour are the Tories in 1981. Not saying a far off war will turn things around but making predictions about events in 2028-29 is tricky.
Watch out for a RAF Typhoon shooting down a Russian MiG in NATO airspace near you soon.
The swan thing looks like another trap for the left, just like the Jenrick fare-dodging videos.
Reform need to grow their support. Which group of voters hitherto unconvinced by Farage & Tice’s spicy stories are going to fall for the swan bollocks*?
*Swan bollocks, a much prized Roma delicacy I believe.
I expect Leon has eaten swan bollocks on his travels. They have been repeating on him ever since.
It does? With the four smaller parties all between 12 and 17 % I find it hard to see a duopoly.
I took it to mean "the rise in the Lib Dems will continue" - and the LDs will become the Opposition to the Tories?
Which is quite optimistic for the Libs, but not impossible
It's a damn shame @williamglenn was drummed off the site, he had an interesting take on secular changes in VI
Its one of the possibles. The LDs overtook the Tories in a YG poll in May but its taken them nearly 100 polls to repeat. If they post a few leads with different pollsters then crossover may have been achieved. 14 point difference between MiC and FoNs LabCon total score is a bit of an eye waterer though.
Jenrick becomes Tory leader and Reform lose circa nine or ten points whilst the Tories gain nine or ten points. It's all very fluid in that direction.
Unfortunately for Jenrick, the gain from Reform will be balanced by a loss to the Lib Dems.
I have no opinion on guilt or innocence but are they not entitled to be innocent until proven guilty?
Yes. But apparently you cannot question the integrity of WOMEN alleging sexual misconduct - they are to be instantly and wholly believed as the downtrodden victims of EVIL MEN.
Unless the EVIL MEN in question happen to have been wearing a frock at the time, in which case those women are NASTY TRANSPHOBIC BIGOTS.
There's a third question: why does a Prime Minister need to be a Member of Parliament? If he commands the confidence of a majority of MPs, my understanding of the uncodified constitution is that the King can appoint him, whether or not he is an MP himself. The usual answer given is that the PM needs to appear at PMQs and in important debates, which non-MPs aren't allowed to, but it would chbe easy enough to change the rules in the Commons to allow this if necessary. It might not even need primary legislation.
Of course MPs would have to make this change and would be damaging their own closed shop if they allowed non-MPs to be PM, so it won't happen. And it's certainly not worth it for the trivial, if any, gain to the country in changing one incompetent Labour dud for another.
They do not need to be MPs - no minister does. This is how our government works after the dissolution of parliament for an election.
It is convention which dictates the PM should be an MP. Not the law…
That used to be the case until recently. Power vests in the Crown, and is located in the Parliament (the whole crown-in-parliament thing). The PM exercises executive power on behalf of the Crown but must be held accountable to Parliament. This convention was strengthened by the prorogation case with Lady Spider-Brooch, when Boris tried to prorogue to avoid Parliament and the Supreme Court told him to fuck off, hence creating legal precedent for what had up til then been a convention.
Source: Law in a Time of Crisis, by Jonathan Sumption, which I have just finished reading and I can thoroughly recommend
[Edit: however, if a minister is not a MP - Google "goats and tsars" then they still have to answer to Parliament]
Comments
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
26m
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 33% (-1)
LAB: 17% (+1)
LDM: 16% (+3)
CON: 14% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
Via
@FindoutnowUK
, 24 Sep.
Changes w/ 17 Sep.
But also the country with Reform continuing to lead, but then everyone is attacking Reform only highlighting and adding to their popularity
* I am not dissing a BPC member, but...
I can see it might appeal to you.
"We have recently published an article ‘How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote’ which explains our VI methodology in greater detail.
Webinar of findings also available at same link:"
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1971182510534164818
"The BBC’s Projected National Share put Reform ~30%, Labour ~20%, Lib Dem ~17%, Conservatives ~15%, Greens ~11% for the May 1, 2025 locals. Elections Etc
"Find Out Now later highlighted that its own pre-election figures had Reform at ~29% and ~8-point lead over Labour. Others definitely understated Reform"
What's remarkable is 4 parties grouped in 'second' within MoE of each other
https://x.com/jonbruner/status/1970913448889548849
TL:DR they are all Chinese shite that combust regularly.
Ouch.
RefCon 49% (-3)
LLG 45 (+4)
Tories on 14%
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
*Work in this instance being "collecting my free AirPods 3 so I can take them abroad next week and test them for a Basalt Bliss magazine article, about hilarious mistranslations"
Also, v plez
Note the chap in the report was a vagrant living in a tent.
If you don't like the comment (as is often the case with Leon's oeuvre), either ignore, or push back.
Flag his stuff that's flaggable.
Which is quite optimistic for the Libs, but not impossible
It's a damn shame @williamglenn was drummed off the site, he had an interesting take on secular changes in VI
(Edit I see Leon thinks it is too.)
To me, it looks like a chaotic state which could become just about anything.
In the smartphone age it's far easier than ever it was to look up both meaning and references.
Interesting thread.
Everybody cites this study on how 2/3rds of English majors cannot understand the first paragraph of Bleak House—I strongly recommend reading the study itself. It is very enlightening on why the students are failing...
https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1970877699603448294
I still think Reform are currently the Alliance in 1981 and Labour are the Tories in 1981. Not saying a far off war will turn things around but making predictions about events in 2028-29 is tricky.
The economy goes gangbusters.
New Public First research finds the benefits would reach £40bn a year - through higher construction output then through raised productivity that reshapes the capital's growth
https://x.com/aireyj/status/1971112615960248541
Labour have already left it late enough that the benefits wouldn't start to seriously kick in until 2028.
Another year of muddle and they will be too late.
I'm surprised that the voting system hasn't come under more scrutiny given the huge majority Labour won on such a low share of the vote and the depths of unpopularity they have since rapidly plumbed. A more proportional voting system is required to now accurately represent British society in the Commons.
Single digits awaits...
https://x.com/zoejardiniere/status/1971180985896272134?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I am also convinced Reform will unravel under scrutiny. They have so far had none. I suppose we can debate whether scrutiny ever happens or whether they get a free ride all the way to the next election.
I think he should have waited, seen if his ally won deputy then used her to start prepping the ground for him.
He just looks a bit silly if there isn’t now a big groundswell during the conference.
Because of lead time, this means that there is no way to meet the targets before the next election.
Part of it is building regulations that fight themselves (see discussion yesterday here).
Part of it is uncertainty about taxation - will the government go ahead with the demented scheme to charge vastly more for disposing of rubble and soil? Which will add £55k to the cost a single house.
Now it's nearing 30% *combined*...
NEW THREAD
If Britain does flip into a state of being told to vote a to stop b instead then both parties could rapidly evaporate.
Unless the EVIL MEN in question happen to have been wearing a frock at the time, in which case those women are NASTY TRANSPHOBIC BIGOTS.
Source: Law in a Time of Crisis, by Jonathan Sumption, which I have just finished reading and I can thoroughly recommend
[Edit: however, if a minister is not a MP - Google "goats and tsars" then they still have to answer to Parliament]