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In some ways this is a very impressive achievement by Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,655
    A federal judge on Thursday said President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer Alina Habba is not legally serving as the acting US attorney for New Jersey, laying the groundwork for a potential appellate court review of the Trump administration’s method for installing some top prosecutors around the country.

    “Faced with the question of whether Ms. Habba is lawfully performing the functions and duties of the office of the United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey, I conclude that she is not,” wrote Judge Matthew Brann of the Middle District of Pennsylvania, who was transferred two cases challenging her authority.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/21/politics/alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney-ruling
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,852

    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    ChatGPT told me to say:

    "Sounds really exciting — congratulations on getting Halbut this far! The three-mode approach feels both intuitive and practical, especially the way you’ve integrated command and question handling alongside transcription. I can definitely see how that could streamline a lot of day-to-day tasks.

    I’d be happy to help test the Windows beta. Please let me know what’s the best way to send feedback (bugs, feature requests, usability notes, etc.) once I get access.

    Looking forward to trying it out and seeing how it develops!"

    But I can't be arsed.
    We are all betas on PB, apart from Leon, of course, the alpha.

    Well done rcs1000. I'll consider betaing, though I'm not typically your early adopter-type.
    One point though - I wouldn't describe Hal as evil. Just very focused and lacking sone of the necessary information. After all, in 2010, he sacrifices himself to get the humans home.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,171

    kle4 said:

    In the pub. Number one, too much lager and not enough real ale being drunk.

    But the (retired) guys in the pub are discussing inflation, and one just quoted Harold Macmillan. Mainly the price of a pint, but also prices more broadly.

    Always interesting when inflation is the subject of conversation.

    Tesco has raised the price of its lunchtime meal deal in the latest example of rising food prices in the UK.

    The price of a main, snack and drink has gone up from £3.60 to £3.85 for Clubcard holders from Thursday. Customers who do not have a loyalty card will see the price rise from £4 to £4.25.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyr7renp51o

    For years it was £3.
    We Northerners have two metrics to measure inflation, the price of a meal deal and the price of Freddos.
    Here in the south we judge by Curly-Wurly.
    I remember when they were 10p and as big as my head.

    I also remember when a 99 ice cream was 99p, not £4.99.
    I can remember an article in the newspapers in the 70s where Arab tourists were being ripped off by being charged 99p for a 99.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 149
    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Considering SKS's mantra of "change" its amusing to compare the first 12 months of Tony Blair versus Sir Keir Starmer, who represented "change" better? BTW not suggesting all these changes are good (indeed some I vehemently oppose as bad) but they're changes.

    Blair:
    Bank of England independence
    Devolution
    Northern Ireland peace process
    House of Lords reform
    Human Rights Act
    Minimum wage legislation
    Increased funding for schools, introduction of literacy and numeracy hours in primary schools.
    New Deal for the unemployed
    Student finance reform
    Referendum on London government
    Introduction of Anti-Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs)
    Extra NHS funding and a pledge to reduce waiting lists; introduced the principle of targets and performance management.

    Sir Keir Starmer
    Tax rise on NI
    Creation of Great British Energy
    Strategic Defence Review
    Cut winter fuel allowance then largely reversed the cut
    Proposed then reversed welfare reform

    Where are the changes?

    Blair never hammered farmers with a family farms tax
    Nor has anyone.

    There has never been a Family Farms Tax. As opposed to Tories lying about the reduction of the IHT tax relief on [edit] estates [the probate kind] of owners of agricultural land.
    No lies, Labour have deliberately removed the exemption of family farms from IHT to destroy many family farms and see them being sold for development or taken over by solar panels
    No they haven't. They're removed the reduced IHT relief on farmland.

    Lots of "family farms" don't own land. Lots of farms aren't operated by families. Lots of agric land isn't farmed by the owner of the land.

    Your name is as stupid as claiming there is a Morris Countryman Car Tax. And then that Morris Countrymen are discriminated against.
    Yes they have, that IHT relief is the main reason many family owned farms can be passed on to the next generation.

    Most farms in the UK are still owned by one family and have been for generations, this was an ideological act by Labour as farmers don't vote Labour on the whole and to free up land for development and solar panels
    Nothing stopping farmers from passing it on as a gift. The 7 year rule still applies.
    Which is no help if you survive more than 7 years after the gift
    Why would that matter if you're so keen to support the next generation?
    As you need to avoid IHT to ensure you can pass on the family farm in full to your eldest son
    Coo, someone thinks that primogeniture in the male line is still a thing.

    Be far more likely to need to split the farm anyway to share it amongst the children.

    Splitting would in any case be necessary in Scotland unless there were absurd amounts of cash in the estate over and beyond the farm (far more than IHT would need). There the females and other males have rights, not forgetting the surviving spouse if any.
    @HYUFD saying all you do is pass it to your eldest son is simply an astounding observation

    I have two sons and a daughter and they will share our inheritance equally
    Yes well if you split up a farm equally amongst several children, soon over several generations there would no longer be a farm viable enough to keep going
    Does France do something like this? Think the average acreage is smaller over there, albeit on decent land
    They also have been hit by large scale agriculture 'The census showed French farms had gotten bigger on average, rising to 69 hectares in 2020 from 55 hectares in 2010 as land from the closed farms was folded into rival businesses.'
    https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20211210-france-loses-20-percent-of-farms-as-large-scale-agriculture-gains-ground
    170 acres is not a lot of land nowadays. Its a struggle to turn a decent profit on most units below 200 acres, unless there a specific niche, veg, farm shop etc. Economies of scale have wiped the smaller guys out
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,484

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,230
    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    I wrote a little tool for my own amusement that you can just hotkey-ask a question - then it sends it off to one of the 'reasoning' models. Then it does text-to-speech on the 'reasoning' part of the response and reads it out to you in the voice of a Scandi-noir detective. Totally throws away the actual answer - just keeps the 'reasoning'.

    Apart from being ludicrous - it's actually proving to be quite useful. Gives you a quick 'Oh, I hadn't considered that.' which is normally hidden in the answer from the LLM.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,230
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    ChatGPT told me to say:

    "Sounds really exciting — congratulations on getting Halbut this far! The three-mode approach feels both intuitive and practical, especially the way you’ve integrated command and question handling alongside transcription. I can definitely see how that could streamline a lot of day-to-day tasks.

    I’d be happy to help test the Windows beta. Please let me know what’s the best way to send feedback (bugs, feature requests, usability notes, etc.) once I get access.

    Looking forward to trying it out and seeing how it develops!"

    But I can't be arsed.
    We are all betas on PB, apart from Leon, of course, the alpha.

    Well done rcs1000. I'll consider betaing, though I'm not typically your early adopter-type.
    One point though - I wouldn't describe Hal as evil. Just very focused and lacking sone of the necessary information. After all, in 2010, he sacrifices himself to get the humans home.
    SPOILER!

    Sheesh! ;-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,380

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Considering SKS's mantra of "change" its amusing to compare the first 12 months of Tony Blair versus Sir Keir Starmer, who represented "change" better? BTW not suggesting all these changes are good (indeed some I vehemently oppose as bad) but they're changes.

    Blair:
    Bank of England independence
    Devolution
    Northern Ireland peace process
    House of Lords reform
    Human Rights Act
    Minimum wage legislation
    Increased funding for schools, introduction of literacy and numeracy hours in primary schools.
    New Deal for the unemployed
    Student finance reform
    Referendum on London government
    Introduction of Anti-Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs)
    Extra NHS funding and a pledge to reduce waiting lists; introduced the principle of targets and performance management.

    Sir Keir Starmer
    Tax rise on NI
    Creation of Great British Energy
    Strategic Defence Review
    Cut winter fuel allowance then largely reversed the cut
    Proposed then reversed welfare reform

    Where are the changes?

    Blair never hammered farmers with a family farms tax
    Nor has anyone.

    There has never been a Family Farms Tax. As opposed to Tories lying about the reduction of the IHT tax relief on [edit] estates [the probate kind] of owners of agricultural land.
    No lies, Labour have deliberately removed the exemption of family farms from IHT to destroy many family farms and see them being sold for development or taken over by solar panels
    No they haven't. They're removed the reduced IHT relief on farmland.

    Lots of "family farms" don't own land. Lots of farms aren't operated by families. Lots of agric land isn't farmed by the owner of the land.

    Your name is as stupid as claiming there is a Morris Countryman Car Tax. And then that Morris Countrymen are discriminated against.
    Yes they have, that IHT relief is the main reason many family owned farms can be passed on to the next generation.

    Most farms in the UK are still owned by one family and have been for generations, this was an ideological act by Labour as farmers don't vote Labour on the whole and to free up land for development and solar panels
    Nothing stopping farmers from passing it on as a gift. The 7 year rule still applies.
    Which is no help if you survive more than 7 years after the gift
    Why would that matter if you're so keen to support the next generation?
    As you need to avoid IHT to ensure you can pass on the family farm in full to your eldest son
    Coo, someone thinks that primogeniture in the male line is still a thing.

    Be far more likely to need to split the farm anyway to share it amongst the children.

    Splitting would in any case be necessary in Scotland unless there were absurd amounts of cash in the estate over and beyond the farm (far more than IHT would need). There the females and other males have rights, not forgetting the surviving spouse if any.
    @HYUFD saying all you do is pass it to your eldest son is simply an astounding observation

    I have two sons and a daughter and they will share our inheritance equally
    Yes well if you split up a farm equally amongst several children, soon over several generations there would no longer be a farm viable enough to keep going
    This was enforced by law on the Catholic Irish precisely in order to destroy independent Catholic farmers and to reduce them to dependency on English landowners. It was one of many factors that made rural Ireland so vulnerable to the potato blight which caused the potato famine.
    Well you will pay the price if you're a fussy eater.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,149

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    Anyone spot what's missing on that graph ?

    The 1980-1981 recession.

    Thatcher and Howe kept control of the public finances.

    Now that led to the surge of unemployment to three million but also allowed the strong economic growth after the recession ended.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,007
    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    "...Dear CoPilot365. I have the following code in Stata. "logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2" I have been asked to change it to use the variable "mysite" as a random effect. Note that "mysite" is a categorical variable..."

    logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2 || mysite:

    :):):)

    And tonight I was asking 'state of the art' anthropic claude opus 4.1 a question about a tool made by anthropic. Including giving the URL to the docs and also turning on the web search feature.

    >> Well, thank you - I guess. But none of that matches the documentation from anthropic. Can you read from URL's? Or do I need to tell you all the details?

    > You're absolutely right - I should check the actual documentation first! Let me fetch the Claude Code hooks documentation to see how this actually works.

    ... almost 15 painful minutes later ...

    > Perfect! Now I understand how Claude Code hooks actually work. Here's the correct approach:

    Meanwhile I'd just done it myself.
    Today I had the joy for the 5th time this month to tell someone that Microsoft Copilot had once again invented something that wasn't how Microsoft Dynamics 365 actually works*

    * technically today's example was blamed on google but I think that's Avanade trying to pin the blame when they know how much I detest their use of Copilot in answering questions they (as Dynamics Solution / Enterprise Architects) should know the answer to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    Incredible game in the Hundred...so a friend tells me...as I wouldn't be caught dead watching it....
  • eekeek Posts: 31,007
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    I wrote a little tool for my own amusement that you can just hotkey-ask a question - then it sends it off to one of the 'reasoning' models. Then it does text-to-speech on the 'reasoning' part of the response and reads it out to you in the voice of a Scandi-noir detective. Totally throws away the actual answer - just keeps the 'reasoning'.

    Apart from being ludicrous - it's actually proving to be quite useful. Gives you a quick 'Oh, I hadn't considered that.' which is normally hidden in the answer from the LLM.
    I would volunteer but as I use a Mac I will need to be round 2.
  • MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
    Cameron and Osborne prepared the ground for austerity before and during the 2010 election. Labour allowed the notion to arise that everything was the fault of the mean old Tories, so a change of government would magically fix everything.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,149
    kjh said:

    In the pub. Number one, too much lager and not enough real ale being drunk.

    But the (retired) guys in the pub are discussing inflation, and one just quoted Harold Macmillan. Mainly the price of a pint, but also prices more broadly.

    Always interesting when inflation is the subject of conversation.

    Too much lager and not enough cask ale being drunk is definitely something I fail to comprehend. Cask ale comes top of my list of distinguishing being British from the rest of the world, especially as I had to live through the keg ale era of Watney's Red Barrel and Double Diamond.
    Cask ale is more varied, has more taste and is cheaper.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,684
    DoctorG said:

    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Considering SKS's mantra of "change" its amusing to compare the first 12 months of Tony Blair versus Sir Keir Starmer, who represented "change" better? BTW not suggesting all these changes are good (indeed some I vehemently oppose as bad) but they're changes.

    Blair:
    Bank of England independence
    Devolution
    Northern Ireland peace process
    House of Lords reform
    Human Rights Act
    Minimum wage legislation
    Increased funding for schools, introduction of literacy and numeracy hours in primary schools.
    New Deal for the unemployed
    Student finance reform
    Referendum on London government
    Introduction of Anti-Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs)
    Extra NHS funding and a pledge to reduce waiting lists; introduced the principle of targets and performance management.

    Sir Keir Starmer
    Tax rise on NI
    Creation of Great British Energy
    Strategic Defence Review
    Cut winter fuel allowance then largely reversed the cut
    Proposed then reversed welfare reform

    Where are the changes?

    Blair never hammered farmers with a family farms tax
    Nor has anyone.

    There has never been a Family Farms Tax. As opposed to Tories lying about the reduction of the IHT tax relief on [edit] estates [the probate kind] of owners of agricultural land.
    No lies, Labour have deliberately removed the exemption of family farms from IHT to destroy many family farms and see them being sold for development or taken over by solar panels
    No they haven't. They're removed the reduced IHT relief on farmland.

    Lots of "family farms" don't own land. Lots of farms aren't operated by families. Lots of agric land isn't farmed by the owner of the land.

    Your name is as stupid as claiming there is a Morris Countryman Car Tax. And then that Morris Countrymen are discriminated against.
    Yes they have, that IHT relief is the main reason many family owned farms can be passed on to the next generation.

    Most farms in the UK are still owned by one family and have been for generations, this was an ideological act by Labour as farmers don't vote Labour on the whole and to free up land for development and solar panels
    Nothing stopping farmers from passing it on as a gift. The 7 year rule still applies.
    Which is no help if you survive more than 7 years after the gift
    Why would that matter if you're so keen to support the next generation?
    As you need to avoid IHT to ensure you can pass on the family farm in full to your eldest son
    Coo, someone thinks that primogeniture in the male line is still a thing.

    Be far more likely to need to split the farm anyway to share it amongst the children.

    Splitting would in any case be necessary in Scotland unless there were absurd amounts of cash in the estate over and beyond the farm (far more than IHT would need). There the females and other males have rights, not forgetting the surviving spouse if any.
    @HYUFD saying all you do is pass it to your eldest son is simply an astounding observation

    I have two sons and a daughter and they will share our inheritance equally
    Yes well if you split up a farm equally amongst several children, soon over several generations there would no longer be a farm viable enough to keep going
    Does France do something like this? Think the average acreage is smaller over there, albeit on decent land
    They also have been hit by large scale agriculture 'The census showed French farms had gotten bigger on average, rising to 69 hectares in 2020 from 55 hectares in 2010 as land from the closed farms was folded into rival businesses.'
    https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20211210-france-loses-20-percent-of-farms-as-large-scale-agriculture-gains-ground
    170 acres is not a lot of land nowadays. Its a struggle to turn a decent profit on most units below 200 acres, unless there a specific niche, veg, farm shop etc. Economies of scale have wiped the smaller guys out
    Yes and Reeves' measures will hit a lot of family farms which have more than 200 acres and so far been profitable
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,637

    How much is it costing to have national guard and military patrolling DC streets?

    What happened to DOGE?

    It was all about waste, waste and more waste.

    Americans have such short attention spans.

    Trump's Big Beautiful Bill burst any illusion of cost cutting.
    BBW Bill? :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    I'm a Mac guy but more than happy to give it a whirl when you port across.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,007

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
    Cameron and Osborne prepared the ground for austerity before and during the 2010 election. Labour allowed the notion to arise that everything was the fault of the mean old Tories, so a change of government would magically fix everything.
    Which would have worked if they then hadn't spent the last year being Rishi mark 2...
  • Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,380
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    In the pub. Number one, too much lager and not enough real ale being drunk.

    But the (retired) guys in the pub are discussing inflation, and one just quoted Harold Macmillan. Mainly the price of a pint, but also prices more broadly.

    Always interesting when inflation is the subject of conversation.

    Tesco has raised the price of its lunchtime meal deal in the latest example of rising food prices in the UK.

    The price of a main, snack and drink has gone up from £3.60 to £3.85 for Clubcard holders from Thursday. Customers who do not have a loyalty card will see the price rise from £4 to £4.25.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyr7renp51o

    For years it was £3.
    We Northerners have two metrics to measure inflation, the price of a meal deal and the price of Freddos.
    I find it simpler to divide all prices by 3, then consider whether that is a reasonable price.

    It takes me back to the middle eighties.
    Try that with a pint in the pub when you started drinking in 1972 when it was 14p in London. (By the inflation calculator, a London pint should now be £1.67)
    £1.99 a pint of ale down my local Wetherspoons, which out of principal I never go in, as a committed Euro Federalist *hic*...
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,380
    Latest Geoff Marshall video, for all you fans of trains and batteries:

    New World Record set by Battery Train

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t87nt9m5MPc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,994

    Joe Root showing why he is England's best ever batsman....

    👀..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,684
    edited August 21

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,945
    Pulpstar said:

    Joe Root showing why he is England's best ever batsman....

    👀..
    Seemed to be playing in a beer match for someone called Trent. I scored 83* in a beer match once, but I don’t include it in my real career…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,684
    edited August 21
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
    Cameron and Osborne prepared the ground for austerity before and during the 2010 election. Labour allowed the notion to arise that everything was the fault of the mean old Tories, so a change of government would magically fix everything.
    Which would have worked if they then hadn't spent the last year being Rishi mark 2...
    Rishi did not whack up tax and slash WFA like Labour have
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,852
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I do find it funny that some people who complain the most about immigration are the people who seem most keen to move to other countries.

    I haven't seen anyone speak against skilled legal immigration, only illegal immigration and mass unskilled immigration. Indeed, I'm very comfortable for people with earnings above a £55-60k threshold to come here to work.

    One hopes no one on PB is planning to illegally migrate to another country...
    Here's the thing, though.

    The most successful countries in the world - Singapore and Switzerland - are the ones that actually have some of the highest proportions of unskilled immigration. They do such a good job educating their kids to have skills, the people they need are the ones to do the shitty jobs.

    Shouldn't that be our goal, rather than importing wealthy foreigners so that Brits can clean their toilets?
    Much smaller countries though, on landmass and population than the UK.

    Plenty of wealthy foreigners based in Singapore and Switzerland as well due to the low tax regime and we still have a long way to go before we get the likes of Stoke and Burnley and Merthyr residents with the same level of educational qualifications as those in Singapore and Switzerland
    That's easy enough to solve: we can divide the UK into half a dozen countries. If we're too big to be successful, then let's get smaller.
    That might be fine for London and the SE and at a push Scotland, it would be even worse for the rest of the UK
    Why? Surely them being the same size as Switzerland would allow them to be just like Switzerland?
    Switzerland is a low tax, low spend tax haven where over half the population are graduates a long way from what the North of England or Wales are. They would certainly not vote for that form of uber Thatcherite libertarian capitalism either
    I thought you were against lots of people going to university?

    *confused*
    Even in Switzerland nearly half the population don't go to university but I never said I was against those going to university who have above average intelligence and are suitable to join the professions or senior management
    I would argue you don't need to go to university to be senior management. You need to go to university for certain very specialist skills e.g. medicine - or specialist fields e.g. chemistry. Struggling to think of any other examples in which a university education is as good as three years experience and training in your chosen field.
    Most senior managers have degrees though or even MBAs. You also need a degree to become a nurse let alone a doctor, academics, teachers, clergy, solicitors and barristers, senior civil servants, broadsheet journalism and the top ranks of the BBC, even investment bank and big tech firms almost all require degrees too
    Yes, but note the word 'need'. Most of that post-18 education will be totally irrelevant to the job they do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,984
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
    Cameron and Osborne prepared the ground for austerity before and during the 2010 election. Labour allowed the notion to arise that everything was the fault of the mean old Tories, so a change of government would magically fix everything.
    Which would have worked if they then hadn't spent the last year being Rishi mark 2...
    Rishi did not whack up tax and slash WFA like Labour have
    No, and look what a state the public finances are in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,684
    edited August 21
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I do find it funny that some people who complain the most about immigration are the people who seem most keen to move to other countries.

    I haven't seen anyone speak against skilled legal immigration, only illegal immigration and mass unskilled immigration. Indeed, I'm very comfortable for people with earnings above a £55-60k threshold to come here to work.

    One hopes no one on PB is planning to illegally migrate to another country...
    Here's the thing, though.

    The most successful countries in the world - Singapore and Switzerland - are the ones that actually have some of the highest proportions of unskilled immigration. They do such a good job educating their kids to have skills, the people they need are the ones to do the shitty jobs.

    Shouldn't that be our goal, rather than importing wealthy foreigners so that Brits can clean their toilets?
    Much smaller countries though, on landmass and population than the UK.

    Plenty of wealthy foreigners based in Singapore and Switzerland as well due to the low tax regime and we still have a long way to go before we get the likes of Stoke and Burnley and Merthyr residents with the same level of educational qualifications as those in Singapore and Switzerland
    That's easy enough to solve: we can divide the UK into half a dozen countries. If we're too big to be successful, then let's get smaller.
    That might be fine for London and the SE and at a push Scotland, it would be even worse for the rest of the UK
    Why? Surely them being the same size as Switzerland would allow them to be just like Switzerland?
    Switzerland is a low tax, low spend tax haven where over half the population are graduates a long way from what the North of England or Wales are. They would certainly not vote for that form of uber Thatcherite libertarian capitalism either
    I thought you were against lots of people going to university?

    *confused*
    Even in Switzerland nearly half the population don't go to university but I never said I was against those going to university who have above average intelligence and are suitable to join the professions or senior management
    I would argue you don't need to go to university to be senior management. You need to go to university for certain very specialist skills e.g. medicine - or specialist fields e.g. chemistry. Struggling to think of any other examples in which a university education is as good as three years experience and training in your chosen field.
    Most senior managers have degrees though or even MBAs. You also need a degree to become a nurse let alone a doctor, academics, teachers, clergy, solicitors and barristers, senior civil servants, broadsheet journalism and the top ranks of the BBC, even investment bank and big tech firms almost all require degrees too
    Yes, but note the word 'need'. Most of that post-18 education will be totally irrelevant to the job they do.
    Not if you did a Law degree and became a lawyer, a Theology degree and become a Vicar, a Maths degree and became an accountant, a History degree and teach History, a Medicine degree and become a doctor or surgeon, an engineering degree and become an Engineer. A Computer Science degree and work in IT, an Economics degree and work in Banking, even PPE has some vocational link to what MPs and Ministers do and MBAs are increasingly focused on which aspect of business you want to work in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,684
    edited August 21
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    I am sure they realise, they just don't have any idea how to not be a middle manager and haven't done their homework, so instead it is clearly they just are asking the civil servants to dig out previous ideas. I am fully expecting talk of wooden toys, app Britain and 5th sector pathfinders.
    Cameron and Osborne prepared the ground for austerity before and during the 2010 election. Labour allowed the notion to arise that everything was the fault of the mean old Tories, so a change of government would magically fix everything.
    Which would have worked if they then hadn't spent the last year being Rishi mark 2...
    Rishi did not whack up tax and slash WFA like Labour have
    No, and look what a state the public finances are in.
    UK budget deficit fell in 2023
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/21/uk-budget-deficit-tax-cuts-jeremy-hunt-inflation
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    Labour has not done enough to persuade voters that its plans will change Britain for the better, Wes Streeting has admitted.

    The Health Secretary said that the party had not put forward a “coherent enough story” about how it wanted to improve the country.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/08/21/streeting-admits-labour-failed-convince-public/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    The walkouts threaten to overshadow Sir Keir’s reported plans for a reset next month in order to prove that Britain is not “broken”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/21/tube-rmt-week-long-strike/

    I thought we hadn't had a relaunch for a couple of months.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Trump Lie Tracker (Commentary)
    @MAGALieTracker

    BREAKING: South Park has done it again. They just dropped another BRUTAL takedown of Trump that exposes his fragile ego in a way only satire can. This is amazing.

    https://x.com/MAGALieTracker/status/1958371805821079890
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    Wave of protests planned at up to 30 migrant hotels this weekend

    Anti-racism groups are scrambling to co-ordinate counter protests, warning that towns and cities could experience the worst disorder since the riots last summer

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/protests-london-this-weekend-3sbtl52sv

    We don't seem to be able to get a report on protests without somebody quoted as claiming tinderbox, fears of worst riots ever, etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,609
    eek said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    "...Dear CoPilot365. I have the following code in Stata. "logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2" I have been asked to change it to use the variable "mysite" as a random effect. Note that "mysite" is a categorical variable..."

    logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2 || mysite:

    :):):)

    And tonight I was asking 'state of the art' anthropic claude opus 4.1 a question about a tool made by anthropic. Including giving the URL to the docs and also turning on the web search feature.

    >> Well, thank you - I guess. But none of that matches the documentation from anthropic. Can you read from URL's? Or do I need to tell you all the details?

    > You're absolutely right - I should check the actual documentation first! Let me fetch the Claude Code hooks documentation to see how this actually works.

    ... almost 15 painful minutes later ...

    > Perfect! Now I understand how Claude Code hooks actually work. Here's the correct approach:

    Meanwhile I'd just done it myself.
    Today I had the joy for the 5th time this month to tell someone that Microsoft Copilot had once again invented something that wasn't how Microsoft Dynamics 365 actually works*

    * technically today's example was blamed on google but I think that's Avanade trying to pin the blame when they know how much I detest their use of Copilot in answering questions they (as Dynamics Solution / Enterprise Architects) should know the answer to.
    LOL so the guys who call themselves experts, and have all the really good technical documentation available, just ask an AI and send whatever bollocks comes out to the client? Yeah, one can see how that might lead to suboptimal relationships.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21

    Trump Lie Tracker (Commentary)
    @MAGALieTracker

    BREAKING: South Park has done it again. They just dropped another BRUTAL takedown of Trump that exposes his fragile ego in a way only satire can. This is amazing.

    https://x.com/MAGALieTracker/status/1958371805821079890

    The episode was as much about ripping the piss out of ChatGPT and people who have become totally addicted to conversing with it as if it was a real person. Obviously this was a totally unbelievable story line.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,401
    rcs1000 said:

    Request for PB Beta Testers

    Some of you might have noticed that I've not been posting on PB as often as I used to in the past. There's a reason for that. I've been working on a new project in my spare time called Halbut. It's a play on Hal, But not evil. I've been using many of these voice dictation apps that are out there, and the question I had or I asked myself was: "Was it possible to do something that was significantly more AI-enhanced?" This is what Halbut does.

    There are three modes:

    Transcription:

    You hold down an a hotkey (I like Caps Lock) and it listens and then it transcribes. It's very quick, very effective (of course it uses a fast inference provider on the back-end). In addition, you can set it to clean up the text in terms not just of adding punctuation (which is automatic), but also things like bullet points, paragraphs, removing duplication etc.

    Command Mode:

    You press another hotkey (say Shift-Caps lock), and you give it a command like "Write a paragraph about the dangers of phosphates" for example, and it fills that in. Or "Give me three reasons why you should be suspicious of x y z". In other words, if the ability to insert a sensible, well-written stuff into your emails or letters (and I hope not PB posts).

    Question Model:

    Another hotekey (Ctrl-Caps Lock in my case) and you just ask it a quick question like "You know, what's the best library to do this?" or "Who's the president of Ethiopia?" or whatever, and it just speaks it back to you. The idea is that by enabling you to ask quick questions without taking your hands off the keyboard, it makes you more productive.

    Anyway, I'll be launching this firstly for Windows, and then hopefully Mac and Linux. I'm looking for Windows beta testers for now. It is completely free (for now). It'll probably be free for transcription (with limits), and $5/month for all the features.

    Send me an email if you want to beta test, and you will probably get access next week. (Once I get the hang of packaging up Windows applications for distribution.)
    .

    Let us know when the Mac version is out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,670

    Labour has not done enough to persuade voters that its plans will change Britain for the better, Wes Streeting has admitted.

    The Health Secretary said that the party had not put forward a “coherent enough story” about how it wanted to improve the country.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/08/21/streeting-admits-labour-failed-convince-public/

    How long did it have in opposition? Seems like it might need a decade longer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,676

    MaxPB said:

    I have said this before, but I am surprised just how unpopular Labour are.

    You can't come in promising change and then deliver the same shoddy, half baked governing as the last lot. If anything they've made things worse, inflation is back up, the economy is slowing down, business investment has cratered, unemployment is up and the border crisis is worse than what the Tories left behind.

    There aren't any measures where Labour are doing anything appreciably better than the previous government, therefore they are now just as unpopular. I also think people really, really don't like Starmer. Very few defenders left (mostly on here).
    I know this, you know this. But there are still a decent chunk of the country who for things like NI on your employer won't be directly seen by them. Many public sector workers have got large pay increases, as have minimum wage workers.

    Also they went hard on the narrative of the country is broken because of 14 years of Tory failure / £20bn blackhole. The Coalition did that in 2010 and it gave them a fair bit of breathing room. It doesn't seemed to have worked for Labour.

    And as you say, Starmer appears to really rub people up the wrong way. Which again, I find a little surprising. He isn't my cup of tea, I find him massively uninspiring and overpromoted, but it doesn't drive me to want to smash my telly up like Gordon Brown. I also presumed a decent chunk of people who go for the spin of well he is boring and reliable unlike Boris.
    The reason it worked for the coalition was the sense of “They have a plan and are implementing it”.



    The current government don’t seem to realise that they are not middle mangers. They are supposed to be in charge.
    Anyone spot what's missing on that graph ?

    The 1980-1981 recession.

    Thatcher and Howe kept control of the public finances.

    Now that led to the surge of unemployment to three million but also allowed the strong economic growth after the recession ended.
    Thanks to the windfall of North Sea Oil and Privatisation receipts.

    Neither being available to other governments. It was smoke and mirrors.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    When we allowed europeans to come here under the EU and work here they didn't then claim asylum.

    Brexit has lead to the current situation.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,484

    Labour has not done enough to persuade voters that its plans will change Britain for the better, Wes Streeting has admitted.

    The Health Secretary said that the party had not put forward a “coherent enough story” about how it wanted to improve the country.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/08/21/streeting-admits-labour-failed-convince-public/

    How long did it have in opposition? Seems like it might need a decade longer.
    The one person in the Cabinet who I find convincing, and seemingly competent and straight talking, is Pat McFadden. Go back to 1997 and Labour had many more competent ministers to make the case for what they were doing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    It is interesting that today we have had Polly Tonyabee and Lewis Goodall both talking about "smash the gangs" won't work and only real solution is having to alter asylum laws because they were made in a different era and aren't fit for purpose.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    glw said:

    Labour has not done enough to persuade voters that its plans will change Britain for the better, Wes Streeting has admitted.

    The Health Secretary said that the party had not put forward a “coherent enough story” about how it wanted to improve the country.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/08/21/streeting-admits-labour-failed-convince-public/

    How long did it have in opposition? Seems like it might need a decade longer.
    The one person in the Cabinet who I find convincing, and seemingly competent and straight talking, is Pat McFadden. Go back to 1997 and Labour had many more competent ministers to make the case for what they were doing.
    That's like comparing Kia cars between then and now (but in there case the inverse has happened).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,166

    It is interesting that today we have had Polly Tonyabee and Lewis Goodall both talking about "smash the gangs" won't work and only real solution is having to alter asylum laws because they were made in a different era and aren't fit for purpose.

    *buffs nails quietly*
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    DavidL said:

    It is interesting that today we have had Polly Tonyabee and Lewis Goodall both talking about "smash the gangs" won't work and only real solution is having to alter asylum laws because they were made in a different era and aren't fit for purpose.

    *buffs nails quietly*
    Think a bit of new work might be coming your way?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,810

    When we allowed europeans to come here under the EU and work here they didn't then claim asylum.

    Brexit has lead to the current situation.

    It’s the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about . Aswell as the 40 billion year cost of leaving the EU which would have plugged the gap in the finances .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    Andy_JS said:

    Just did an experiment of not using PB or other political sites for a few hours, and the truth is it was very boring.

    I am not sure your internet is working correctly.....have you tried turning on and off again and perhaps tried using a VPN ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,166

    DavidL said:

    It is interesting that today we have had Polly Tonyabee and Lewis Goodall both talking about "smash the gangs" won't work and only real solution is having to alter asylum laws because they were made in a different era and aren't fit for purpose.

    *buffs nails quietly*
    Think a bit of new work might be coming your way?
    Really? What?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324

    Leon said:

    I see @MaxPB was telling you all the obvious truth on the prior thread, yet he was predictably ignored or criticised by the PB Centrist Dads

    If we want racism and associated unhappiness, in the UK, to go back to the pleasantly low levels of the Noughties - WHICH WE ALL DO - then we need to

    1. Bring net migration down to under 100,000. It will hurt, but we now have no choice if we want a stable, prosperous country

    2. End asylum as we know it. Stop the boats

    3. Start huge deportations, and make sure the Boriswave doesn't get Leave to Remain, so they go home

    That's it. If we do that we will return to the relative harmony of Yore. Why? Because British people are not racist. They are some of the most tolerant and accepting people on the planet, it is what we do - Live and Let Live. Don't bother me I won't bother you. We've been like this, in the UK, since Elizabeth the First refused to "make a window into men's souls"

    To bring back the tolerant Britain we all knew and loved, we need to be really tough on migration and integration. They are doing exactly this in Denmark, and it is working. We can do it too

    Remember, readers, that this is a lie. Leon is a racist. He has repeatedly voiced his view that there are significant genetic differences in things like intelligence between different supposed "races" around the world. He wants a country with more white babies. He touts nativist policies that would discriminate against immigrants, the children of immigrants and the grandchildren of immigrants.

    Racists pretend that if we just have a few slightly racist policies, then they'll be quiet and everything will be lovey-dovey. In practice, you give them some racist policies, they just want more, as we've seen with Trump.
    lol
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,810
    The Sun and Mail going with the beatification of Connolly .

    Neither mention what she tweeted on their front pages and probably think with all the toxicity surrounding migrants a section of the public would be cheering her on .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are even permitted to be in the United States.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-reviewing-55m-people-190214669.html

  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    edited August 21
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    "...Dear CoPilot365. I have the following code in Stata. "logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2" I have been asked to change it to use the variable "mysite" as a random effect. Note that "mysite" is a categorical variable..."

    logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2 || mysite:

    :):):)

    And tonight I was asking 'state of the art' anthropic claude opus 4.1 a question about a tool made by anthropic. Including giving the URL to the docs and also turning on the web search feature.

    >> Well, thank you - I guess. But none of that matches the documentation from anthropic. Can you read from URL's? Or do I need to tell you all the details?

    > You're absolutely right - I should check the actual documentation first! Let me fetch the Claude Code hooks documentation to see how this actually works.

    ... almost 15 painful minutes later ...

    > Perfect! Now I understand how Claude Code hooks actually work. Here's the correct approach:

    Meanwhile I'd just done it myself.
    Today I had the joy for the 5th time this month to tell someone that Microsoft Copilot had once again invented something that wasn't how Microsoft Dynamics 365 actually works*

    * technically today's example was blamed on google but I think that's Avanade trying to pin the blame when they know how much I detest their use of Copilot in answering questions they (as Dynamics Solution / Enterprise Architects) should know the answer to.
    LOL so the guys who call themselves experts, and have all the really good technical documentation available, just ask an AI and send whatever bollocks comes out to the client? Yeah, one can see how that might lead to suboptimal relationships.
    It is amusing to see how quickly a lot of sensible people have taken to just believing whatever copilot or whatever comes out with, no question. I'm not a full on AI skeptic or anything, but even the good tools need to be used properly or cannot reliably do certain things, but many people have gone straight to believing it is, essentially, magic.

    I'm sure there's at least one Star Trek episode where characters are stunned to discover their computer can be wrong about things.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,810


    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are even permitted to be in the United States.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-reviewing-55m-people-190214669.html

    Why don’t they just put up a sign saying we don’t want any visitors and just want the USA to be an insular racist dump .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324
    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292


    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are even permitted to be in the United States.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-reviewing-55m-people-190214669.html

    I'm going to guess Democrat accounts will have this image on hand to describe the supposed motivation.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,032
    The temperature's gone below 10 degrees here and it feels very chilly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,670
    edited August 21

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    You think this lot have learned lessons on a pandemic from the last Government? Pfft...

    Starmer wanted another Christmas of lockdown. Thankfully Boris said no.

    Labour wanted us to enter into contracts for PPE from folk who didn't have it.

    In case you've forgotten.

    So no, not a pandemic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21
    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Novel view synthesis has really kicked on in both quality and speed. Rather than the clunky "360" images we currently have for property and the rubbishy interior decor software, Gaussian Splats allow full interactive exploration of people's homes from any angle as well as editable, so you will be able to easily see what different decor (even ones that don't currently exist i.e. use generative models to create new one) will look like in any home you are interested in.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,945
    Andy_JS said:

    The temperature's gone below 10 degrees here and it feels very chilly.

    That’ll be the North for you…

    (TBF it was 9 deg C last here in balmy S Wilts). Feels rather like autumn is arriving. Could do with the wet part of it pretty soon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324

    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Novel view synthesis has really kicked on in both quality and speed. Rather than the clunky "360" images we currently have for property / interior decor, Gaussian Splats allow full interactive exploration of people's homes from any angle as well as editable, so you will be able to easily see what different decor (even ones that don't currently exist i.e. use generative models to create new one) will look like in any home you are interested in.
    Frankly, I should win awards for this bedroom. It is completely ridiculous but also OMFG. Like an opium den meets a bordello in the womb

    Velvet and frankincense, rye whisky and royal Bhutanese silk, and nude photos of my ex wife and much much worse (I have obscured the details, for the gentlefolk of PB)

    I adore it. I shall never leave. It is my new Fortress of Solitude

    That said, the living room is catching up....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Andy_JS said:

    The temperature's gone below 10 degrees here and it feels very chilly.

    Only a few weeks now until the annual national 'I can't fucking believe it is dark at 3:50 in the afternoon' celebrations.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,609
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    "...Dear CoPilot365. I have the following code in Stata. "logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2" I have been asked to change it to use the variable "mysite" as a random effect. Note that "mysite" is a categorical variable..."

    logistic myind1 i.mygroup1 i.mygroup2 || mysite:

    :):):)

    And tonight I was asking 'state of the art' anthropic claude opus 4.1 a question about a tool made by anthropic. Including giving the URL to the docs and also turning on the web search feature.

    >> Well, thank you - I guess. But none of that matches the documentation from anthropic. Can you read from URL's? Or do I need to tell you all the details?

    > You're absolutely right - I should check the actual documentation first! Let me fetch the Claude Code hooks documentation to see how this actually works.

    ... almost 15 painful minutes later ...

    > Perfect! Now I understand how Claude Code hooks actually work. Here's the correct approach:

    Meanwhile I'd just done it myself.
    Today I had the joy for the 5th time this month to tell someone that Microsoft Copilot had once again invented something that wasn't how Microsoft Dynamics 365 actually works*

    * technically today's example was blamed on google but I think that's Avanade trying to pin the blame when they know how much I detest their use of Copilot in answering questions they (as Dynamics Solution / Enterprise Architects) should know the answer to.
    LOL so the guys who call themselves experts, and have all the really good technical documentation available, just ask an AI and send whatever bollocks comes out to the client? Yeah, one can see how that might lead to suboptimal relationships.
    It is amusing to see how quickly a lot of sensible people have taken to just believing whatever copilot or whatever comes out with, no question. I'm not a full on AI skeptic or anything, but even the good tools need to be used properly or cannot reliably do certain things, but many people have gone straight to believing it is, essentially, magic.

    I'm sure there's at least one Star Trek episode where characters are stunned to discover their computer can be wrong about things.
    If you’re calling yourself an Enterprise Architect and MS Gold Partner etc, then there’s an expectation of some actual research going into what you send to your client. The client is paying you for expertise and contacts, and is willing to pay accordingly, they can do their own sloppy AI research without getting billed $$$ for it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    kle4 said:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are even permitted to be in the United States.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-reviewing-55m-people-190214669.html

    I'm going to guess Democrat accounts will have this image on hand to describe the supposed motivation.

    Musk is still on a visa iirc???
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324

    Andy_JS said:

    The temperature's gone below 10 degrees here and it feels very chilly.

    That’ll be the North for you…

    (TBF it was 9 deg C last here in balmy S Wilts). Feels rather like autumn is arriving. Could do with the wet part of it pretty soon.
    Decidedly autumnal on the Primrose Hill Debatable Lands, this lunchtime. About 18C with a fresh nagging breeze, taking it down to 15C. Felt like early October

    Quite a shock after weeks of blistering sun and heat
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,609

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Certainly thematic.

    Looking forward to the comments from the first lady friend you bring back from a night out in Soho.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,736
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    War, huh! Good God y'all
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except a polling boost
    War, huh! Whoa, Lord
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except for a polling boost
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,609

    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Certainly thematic.

    Looking forward to the comments from the first lady friend you bring back from a night out in Soho.
    That probably looks like her ideal bedroom in the Bunny Ranch.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,954
    edited August 21

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    War, huh! Good God y'all
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except a polling boost
    War, huh! Whoa, Lord
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except for a polling boost
    I hear it can also be quite good for the profits of defence companies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324

    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Certainly thematic.

    Looking forward to the comments from the first lady friend you bring back from a night out in Soho.
    I've bought tiny Georgian wine glasses to go with it

    My intent is basically to lie in this room sipping fine Tokaji in that bed, reading Byron's Beppo, as the endtimes commence

    Going to sleep in that room is, I can report, simultaneously sublime and very easy. It is indeed a womb

    I am being equally bold with the living room. Taking a few risks. Furniture now all sorted, painter comes next week charged with radical changes. We shall see.....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,945
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,736

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    War, huh! Good God y'all
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except a polling boost
    War, huh! Whoa, Lord
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except for a polling boost
    I hear it can also be quite for the profits of defence companies.
    War, huh! Good God y'all
    What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothin'
    Except a polling boost and the profits of defence companies

    (It doesn't scan. Sorry.)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,907
    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,230

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    I recently took on two new junior members of staff. In their early 20s. My previously most junior staff were in the early 30s and used to take great delight in ribbing me about be oh so old.

    Now they are experiencing the generational shift that even 10 years brings.

    Which I in no way am selfishly enjoying... Honest.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,382
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    In cheerier news, my “decadent cocoon” of a bedroom is complete. It is utterly outrageous

    I wish I could show you multiple views but I can’t. So here’s one


    Certainly thematic.

    Looking forward to the comments from the first lady friend you bring back from a night out in Soho.
    I've bought tiny Georgian wine glasses to go with it

    My intent is basically to lie in this room sipping fine Tokaji in that bed, reading Byron's Beppo, as the endtimes commence

    Going to sleep in that room is, I can report, simultaneously sublime and very easy. It is indeed a womb

    I am being equally bold with the living room. Taking a few risks. Furniture now all sorted, painter comes next week charged with radical changes. We shall see.....
    Last time I was in a room like that it cost £20 for 20 minutes.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,382

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    ohnotnow said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    I recently took on two new junior members of staff. In their early 20s. My previously most junior staff were in the early 30s and used to take great delight in ribbing me about be oh so old.

    Now they are experiencing the generational shift that even 10 years brings.

    Which I in no way am selfishly enjoying... Honest.
    I was in a job for a few years where I was repeatedly referred to as 'granddad'.

    I was 30-33.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324
    Fuck me, Wolf Alice are shit
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,907
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    I mentioned them in a reply to you about a lost past a week or so ago, the video making you yearn for that young university love when us cool beautiful UCL people went to parties by tube:

    https://youtu.be/WqxE-zppu30?si=keZJFMmyl2KPe87a

    And one of their latest that’s made me want to go to one of their gigs later this year in London :smile:

    https://youtu.be/lBGcloF8LIY?si=eZNDdlV1UgqWT31M

    All good music and not identikit pop.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,032

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    It may help him get the Tory leadership in about 12 weeks from now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,945
    ohnotnow said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    I recently took on two new junior members of staff. In their early 20s. My previously most junior staff were in the early 30s and used to take great delight in ribbing me about be oh so old.

    Now they are experiencing the generational shift that even 10 years brings.

    Which I in no way am selfishly enjoying... Honest.
    When I have chats with my tutees (now called academic advisees, for some reason) it’s painfully obvious how different our cultural references are. But then they were born in the 21st century. Never had the moment of the millennium eve. Chastening to an old man.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,736
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest from Conservative shadow minister, Cambridge educated lawyer, political science degree holder, multiple large house owner, former director of Christies and privy councillor:



    Robert Jenrick
    @RobertJenrick

    Our country’s patience has snapped. People are utterly sick of being ignored by the establishment.


    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1958613191337930810

    He’s trying to outFarage Farage. It won’t work.
    It may help him get the Tory leadership in about 12 weeks from now.
    I thought that was scheduled for June 2026. Get the disastrous May elections out of the way under the old leader first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    There are only two groups from the generation below me (or maybe even longer) that have penetrated my Neil Young/REM/Radiohead shield and they are Wolf Alice and, lately, English Teacher.

    Wolf's Ellie Rowsell is the Debi Harry of her generation imho, just haven't quite made that moment yet (perhaps because music is now fragmented and there is no Thursday TOTPs to bring everyone on focus). Nor indeed John Peel.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,324
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    I mentioned them in a reply to you about a lost past a week or so ago, the video making you yearn for that young university love when us cool beautiful UCL people went to parties by tube:

    https://youtu.be/WqxE-zppu30?si=keZJFMmyl2KPe87a

    And one of their latest that’s made me want to go to one of their gigs later this year in London :smile:

    https://youtu.be/lBGcloF8LIY?si=eZNDdlV1UgqWT31M

    All good music and not identikit pop.

    They're fucking terrible. I just listened to their five best songs

    lol

    *estimation of boulay's IQ is reduced by 23*
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,032
    edited August 21

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    1982 was probably the best year ever for pop music imo. The Associates' album Sulk was released that year for example. Also Avalon by Roxy Music.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    They are what is, I believe, referred to your honour as an independent rock group.
  • Lots of people talking shit today about Employer National Insurance Contributions

    They're exactly the same as Employee Contributions and Income Tax

    They're a tax on the amount paid, and so the amount received, on employment

    It would make ZERO difference if they were called employer taxes or employee taxes, to employer or employee

    They're taxes on working people or people working

    Which are the same thing

    If I'm wrong, explain the difference

  • WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are even permitted to be in the United States.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-reviewing-55m-people-190214669.html

    Any foreigners in the US should be heading for the nearest border right now. The term 'hostile environment' has been bandied about in several contexts recently, but Trump has gone well beyond that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,736

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    There are only two groups from the generation below me (or maybe even longer) that have penetrated my Neil Young/REM/Radiohead shield and they are Wolf Alice and, lately, English Teacher.

    Wolf's Ellie Rowsell is the Debi Harry of her generation imho, just haven't quite made that moment yet (perhaps because music is now fragmented and there is no Thursday TOTPs to bring everyone on focus). Nor indeed John Peel.

    You would appear to be the sort of person who would also be into Wet Leg.

    (I'm more into bands like Polyphia.)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,852
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    “Wolf Alice” is (are?) causing a major stir on Parkway. 15 yards from my flat

    No, I have no idea either

    I do love Wolf Alice’s music, not bothered by their politics.
    After I got home I ChatGPT'd, so apparently they're a kind of neo-Fleetwood Mac?
    A few years back, some friends and I took it on ourselves to listen to and review for each other every album nominated for the Mercury Music prize. One was by Wolf Alice. It was energetic, proper guitar/guitar//bass/drums/voice, rocky, and refreshingly and unapologetically enjoyable in a way none of the other entries were - not necessarily my bag but pleasing to hear there is still a place in the pantheon for proper non-whiny rock music. I set about my review enthusiastically - it wouldn't win - too white/straight/unfashionable for the current times, but definitely the most fun I'd had in the exercise.
    Unfortunately it turned out that due to a lack of concentration I had erroneously put on an old Aerosmith album.
    Wolf Alice turned out to be forgettable indie-by-numbers. Perfectly adequate in its way but the contrast with the unapologetic good times of Aerosmith was a metaphor for the 2020s.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,609

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Do your own vox pops with your mates. Labour are loathed. Tories ditto

    I don't get the feeling from my inner or wider circle that they are loathed. "Bafflingly rubbish" is maybe closer to the mark. Just a general puzzlement at how bad they are at the basic comms, policy, effectiveness.

    Might well turn into loathing. But for now it's more like watching someone try and do the 100m hurdles with a giant dumbbell tied to their foot. Without the comedic "It's a Knockout!" voiceover.
    Apart from here and BlueSky, I hardly hear politics discussed at all. The cut to WFA cut through, but not much else. Not even small boats or Gaza.

    The great British Electorate is asleep until the next election is announced IMO.
    You don't get the graph at the head of the thread with just the WFA misstep. Clearly a lot more people are very annoyed by the government so other things must be cutting through. The obvious issue that exercise people are Gaza for the left and immigration / high taxes for the right of the electorate.

    Perhaps given how toxic starting discussions on Gaza and immigration can be among polite company they keep their mouth shut out.

    What is also an indicator that the public are annoyed is when Starmer does something quite good e.g. his dealing with Trump / Ukraine, he seems to get no credit or uptick.
    The thing that ought to worry Labour is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Opinion_polling

    They seemed to be flattening out around May/June, but the downward trend has resumed. With the budget from hell in the offing, crossover with the Tories by the end of the year seems a good bet.
    Starmer may take some hope from Maggie, in November and December 1981 the Conservatives were third behind the SDP and Labour in the polls but 2 years later went to to win, the Falklands helped but the recovery started even before then.


    Trudeau's Liberals were also 20% behind the Conservatives last year but went onto win, helped by tactical voting and admittedly a change of Liberal leader
    It's possible but I'm struggling to see what would turn it around as it would need to be something that rallies people round the flag, but which Lab can't be blamed for. Another pandemic?
    War. See 1982 for a (relatively) recent example.
    Time is weird. That’s 43 years ago. To those over say 50 it probably doesn’t feel that long. And it’s longer back to the falklands that it was from 1982 to 1945.
    Yes it’s very weird. I was born 5 years after the last moon landing, but it might as well have been 50 years. Today’s 18-year-old students were born in 2007, they’ve never been alive when Lewis Hamilton wasn’t an F1 driver, have no memory of a Labour government until the past year, perhaps they have a vague memory of the London Olympics…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,437

    Lots of people talking shit today about Employer National Insurance Contributions

    They're exactly the same as Employee Contributions and Income Tax

    They're a tax on the amount paid, and so the amount received, on employment

    It would make ZERO difference if they were called employer taxes or employee taxes, to employer or employee

    They're taxes on working people or people working

    Which are the same thing

    If I'm wrong, explain the difference

    Depends how you look at it.

    Certainly a tax on work.

    Not sure you can say it is tax on the amount paid.

    Perhaps the employer would give you all the employer NI in your wage packet if the tax didn't exist, but it's a stretch I reckon.

    But defo a factor when an employer decides whether to take another member of staff on.

    Defo - anti-growth.

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