The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I wonder if there could be value in backing Andy Burnham now since there is talk about him returning to Westminster, he polls well with the public, better than Rayner, Streeting, and Starmer do.
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A market from which to stay well away currently.
Cooper is also value in that table imho.
https://order-order.com/2025/08/07/revealed-inside-andy-burnhams-search-for-commons-seat/
But I do know some Labour people in the North West, and normally they dismiss this speculation, not this time.
Lay the favourite? But time's against it.
He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.
Strange to think Labour haven't had an actual contested leadership election while in power for nearly 50 years.
And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.
But if I am wrong, then if Burnham stands at the 2029 election, he will be in the running for next Labour leader along with next PM (if Labour wins) or next LotO (if Labour loses).
Burnham is 33/1 next PM and 11/1 next Labour leader.
I tried Google News and it literally said there is no news about Andrew Gwynne.
Not even a household name in his own household.
Matthew Parker, Mike Bates, Aaron Kneebone and Liz Wardley said the coastguard initially contacted them and asked if they could see a dinghy nearby.
Ex-Royal Marine Mr Bates, a British record holder for rowing across the Atlantic solo, said it soon became clear the coastguard was asking about their boat.
"I looked to my right and there was maybe a dozen individuals stood on the shoreline staring at us," he told the PA news agency.
After the coastguard accepted they were not carrying migrants, they rowed on through the night but hours later were contacted again by the coastguard because the police had "asked if they could send a lifeboat out to check who we were".
A friend then forwarded Mr Lowe's post, which Mr Bates said was "a moment of light relief".
"We found it hilarious. I've not been mistaken for a migrant before," he said.
"The best comment was the one asking where the Royal Navy were when you need them. I'm a former Royal Marine, so the Royal Navy were on the boat.
"But it was almost like a vigilante-style, people following us down the beach.
"They hadn't twigged that we were parallel to the shore for hours and not trying to land."
Fear and Loathing in Great Yarmouth leads to a grand for a rowing charity.
They can't even do it properly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cg7j17ln9j2o
The knee-jerk racism would be offensive if some of the morons saying it weren't such morons.
An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.
Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.
Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp
Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT
People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed
https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43
He blames the smartphone, inter alia
And it is Guido pushing the story. Doesn't mean that it's definitely false, of course...
The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
Still, since it's behind a paywall, it's all rubbish.
Not quite as perfect as a Gift meaning 'poison', but still pretty nice.
Compare and contrast with the BBC in 2019 replacing footage of Boris Johnson's embarrassing behaviour at the Cenotaph with footage from 2016. I am not suggesting they do that for Starmer by the way.
It can be genuinely reported that Starmer is performing sub-optimally without all the "made up" nonsense.
The UK was similarly dependent on its parasitical relationship with the US during WWII.
Were we a failed state back then ?
Russia has been a full on gangster state since the murderer and gangster Lenin killed his way to the top. Putin has the same territorial impulses as Stalin.
A Russia which took over your 'failed state', with its human resources, and industrial capacity would represent an enormous future threat to Europe.
I've been musing a threader on this.
The TV has been around for 80 years. These social changes - on this scale, especially with the young - are quite new
The problem for Millennials is more simple though. They have been shafted by the gerontocracy that runs the country, lived for their entire lives in a stagnant economy, and know that it isn't going to get better.
Of course they are mistrusting and disengaged.
You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
Here's one from my beat - Laura Laker. She charges £4 per month, which is enough to give slice of portfolio income in a specialist niche - whilst also being a bit of a hurdle to casual subscriptions. I need to think twice to see whether such a donation is better to a specialist charity who work on case around barriers, where it is 2 hours of officer-time pa.
If some is good and knowledgeable, and Laura is that, it can be done. She has driven the move off a fairly popular specialist book.
https://lauralaker.substack.com/
The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .
Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.
If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.
So I think Rayner is the value bet.
This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
At least a part of its success appears to stem from its ethical principles which are lacking in the competition.
Anthropic’s Quiet Edge in the AI Talent War
The AI startup isn’t matching Meta’s sky-high salary offers. It’s still dominating when it comes to engineer retention.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/anthropics-quiet-edge-in-the-ai-talent-war-c48362ef?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
https://x.com/arthistorynews/status/1912999662857990631
This is leaving a number of women in the greater Glasgow area having to come to terms with the fact that they might have actually slept with Jimmy Krankie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amqu6C9u0oU
2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
A very large multinational tech firm I know has just had an entire workgroup resign and move to a startup, which is less secure, and with no extra pay, just because the work should be more interesting, and with very little management b/s. They'll have to work harder, but they'll be free to just get on with what needs to be done. And these are not young engineers, but a few greybeards and others in their fifties and forties.
So I can imagine an AI firm which offers good salaries, and has good perks, but also allows them to get on with interesting work, might appeal over working for a division of a massive hypercorp such as Meta.
(Note: I am not saying they will work for no money; just that when they get to a certain pay level, depending on the person in question, the work starts to matter more. There's nothing worse for an engineer than to develop a product, get it to the stage where it could be sold, and then have it cancelled because of internal politics.)
(*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
Europe didn't need to get itself in such a position - it was warned about it by Trump a decade ago.
Europe instead chose to get itself in such a position and to laugh at Trump while doing so.
I'm sure you remember all those pictures of Merkel criticising Trump which were posted on PB during his first term.
Jobs don't pay people's bills
Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
The fabric binding society together is fraying
We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
In any case, what I am looking at is the leadership betting, not whether she is the best choice.
Edited extra bit: *it
According to his cousin, who works there, the interior was measured and made up as a kit in a Turkish factory.
It has the exact same gilt pseudo Robert Adams stuff, just that the barber chap went for a black background.
Farage can rabble-rouse on immigration very effectively, but his other policies are not popular even with Reform voters, so quite a problem when we get a campaign going.
Trump is dangerous.
Europe thought it could mock Trump without any repercussions.
It couldn't.
Labour will want to frame the election as 'Stop Farage becoming PM, it will be chaos' vs Farage's 'Britain is broken and only Reform can fix it'.
That one was headed off at the pass. How to do that again?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-55280466
"A man who crossed the Irish Sea from Scotland to the Isle of Man "on a jet ski" to visit his girlfriend has been jailed for breaching Covid-19 laws.
Douglas Courthouse heard 28-year-old Dale McLaughlan took four-and-a-half hours to travel from the Isle of Whithorn to Ramsey on Friday.
McLaughlan, from North Ayrshire, made the crossing despite having never driven a water scooter before."