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The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,616
edited August 9 in General
The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

I wonder if there could be value in backing Andy Burnham now since there is talk about him returning to Westminster, he polls well with the public, better than Rayner, Streeting, and Starmer do.

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Comments

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,798
    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,044
    Morning all :)

    A market from which to stay well away currently.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,783
    Am I right in thinking that before standing for a seat in Parliament Burnham would have to resign as Mayor, because of the dual role as PCC?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,223
    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,170
    edited August 9
    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    Rumours and speculation.

    https://order-order.com/2025/08/07/revealed-inside-andy-burnhams-search-for-commons-seat/

    But I do know some Labour people in the North West, and normally they dismiss this speculation, not this time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,170
    ydoethur said:

    Am I right in thinking that before standing for a seat in Parliament Burnham would have to resign as Mayor, because of the dual role as PCC?

    Yes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,764
    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    I think the starting point is that Andrew Gwynne (Lab,Denton and Gorton) has found a job elsewhere and is therefore likely to want to stand down. Such is the level of speculation around Labour's one well-known and not- unpopular politician that any potential Lab-winnable seat in and around GM is seen as AB's route back into parliament.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,980
    Good morning everyone.

    Lay the favourite? But time's against it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,744
    Would Labour be certain to win Denton and Gorton given the current climate ? Personally I find Burnham grating and he has this air of ‘ I’m the chosen one “ .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,783

    ydoethur said:

    Am I right in thinking that before standing for a seat in Parliament Burnham would have to resign as Mayor, because of the dual role as PCC?

    Yes.
    Then it isn't happening, is it? Burnham is not a risk-taker by nature. Unless he decides he doesn't want to carry on as Mayor anyway, he will not give it up for a seat at a moment when Labour can't really guarantee a win.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,783
    edited August 9
    Checking the terms might be important too. If Starmer is forced out there is a chance he might be booted from the leadership at once, in which case Rayner might be appointed PM as the new leader of the Labour party. Even if she only lasts two months.

    Strange to think Labour haven't had an actual contested leadership election while in power for nearly 50 years.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,806
    edited August 9

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Whilst it was a stupid knee jerk type error, I do think there is slight merit in a politician actually putting their hands up and admitting they cocked up and making some sort of restitution- how often to MPs just say “fair cop, I was wrong and apologise” instead of wriggling.

    And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,277
    edited August 9
    FPT:
    Dopermean said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I suppose someone has long ago reflected that perhaps the question is more, what is it about the experience of cheating/being cheated that turns people into Green/Reform sympathisers.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Or more pertinently, given the stats, what is it that attracts Reform/Green voters to serial cheaters?
    I would suggest that Reform supporters' refreshing honesty about their political stance extends to other areas. Lib Dem, Labour and Tory cheats simply lie. Various case studies would support this hypothesis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,934
    Mornin
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,625
    boulay said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Whilst it was a stupid knee jerk type error, I do think there is slight merit in a politician actually putting their hands up and admitting they cocked up and making some sort of restitution- how often to MPs just say “fair cop, I was wrong and apologise” instead of wriggling.

    And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.
    There's saying stupid things and saying stupid things in the context of whipping up racist fear and loathing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,196

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    If like me you believe Kier Starmer will retire early, like Wilson, then his successor is already sitting round the Cabinet table (or will be when Starmer collects his gold clock).

    But if I am wrong, then if Burnham stands at the 2029 election, he will be in the running for next Labour leader along with next PM (if Labour wins) or next LotO (if Labour loses).

    Burnham is 33/1 next PM and 11/1 next Labour leader.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,223
    Cookie said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    I think the starting point is that Andrew Gwynne (Lab,Denton and Gorton) has found a job elsewhere and is therefore likely to want to stand down. Such is the level of speculation around Labour's one well-known and not- unpopular politician that any potential Lab-winnable seat in and around GM is seen as AB's route back into parliament.
    Do we know what this Gwynne job is?

    I tried Google News and it literally said there is no news about Andrew Gwynne.

    Not even a household name in his own household.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,783

    boulay said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Whilst it was a stupid knee jerk type error, I do think there is slight merit in a politician actually putting their hands up and admitting they cocked up and making some sort of restitution- how often to MPs just say “fair cop, I was wrong and apologise” instead of wriggling.

    And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.
    There's saying stupid things and saying stupid things in the context of whipping up racist fear and loathing.
    Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas leads to er, certain episodes including the one with the orangutan.

    Fear and Loathing in Great Yarmouth leads to a grand for a rowing charity.

    They can't even do it properly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,170
    Chris Woakes says rehabilitation "could be a risk he's willing to take" to be fit for the Ashes, rather than having surgery on the shoulder injury sustained in England's fifth Test defeat against India.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cg7j17ln9j2o
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,148

    Cookie said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    I think the starting point is that Andrew Gwynne (Lab,Denton and Gorton) has found a job elsewhere and is therefore likely to want to stand down. Such is the level of speculation around Labour's one well-known and not- unpopular politician that any potential Lab-winnable seat in and around GM is seen as AB's route back into parliament.
    Do we know what this Gwynne job is?

    I tried Google News and it literally said there is no news about Andrew Gwynne.

    Not even a household name in his own household.
    His Father was a famous sports journalist/commentator type.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    boulay said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Whilst it was a stupid knee jerk type error, I do think there is slight merit in a politician actually putting their hands up and admitting they cocked up and making some sort of restitution- how often to MPs just say “fair cop, I was wrong and apologise” instead of wriggling.

    And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.
    There's saying stupid things and saying stupid things in the context of whipping up racist fear and loathing.
    It is the first of four gruelling rows the crew will take over four years in an attempt to raise £57m for motor neurone disease research, inspired by the deaths of rugby players Rob Burrow and Doddie Weir from the condition.

    Matthew Parker, Mike Bates, Aaron Kneebone and Liz Wardley said the coastguard initially contacted them and asked if they could see a dinghy nearby.

    Ex-Royal Marine Mr Bates, a British record holder for rowing across the Atlantic solo, said it soon became clear the coastguard was asking about their boat.

    "I looked to my right and there was maybe a dozen individuals stood on the shoreline staring at us," he told the PA news agency.

    After the coastguard accepted they were not carrying migrants, they rowed on through the night but hours later were contacted again by the coastguard because the police had "asked if they could send a lifeboat out to check who we were".

    A friend then forwarded Mr Lowe's post, which Mr Bates said was "a moment of light relief".

    "We found it hilarious. I've not been mistaken for a migrant before," he said.

    "The best comment was the one asking where the Royal Navy were when you need them. I'm a former Royal Marine, so the Royal Navy were on the boat.

    "But it was almost like a vigilante-style, people following us down the beach.

    "They hadn't twigged that we were parallel to the shore for hours and not trying to land."
    Surely then the obvious next thing to check would be their skin colour. I keep reading that we are being invaded by non-whites.

    The knee-jerk racism would be offensive if some of the morons saying it weren't such morons.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,980

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    A sensible analysis is that, like Agent Anderson, he needs a constant feed of things to be outraged about to keep his base excited. He's at the "run to social media before checking if a thing actually exists" stage.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442
    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,934
    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,343

    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    Rumours and speculation.

    https://order-order.com/2025/08/07/revealed-inside-andy-burnhams-search-for-commons-seat/

    But I do know some Labour people in the North West, and normally they dismiss this speculation, not this time.
    There is a biggish gap between "dismiss the speculation completely" and "it's happening".

    And it is Guido pushing the story. Doesn't mean that it's definitely false, of course...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,318

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    That's far from my experience of that age group.

    Still, since it's behind a paywall, it's all rubbish. ;)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,763

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442

    AnneJGP said:

    Does the talk originate from Andy Burnham himself, or is it speculation?

    Rumours and speculation.

    https://order-order.com/2025/08/07/revealed-inside-andy-burnhams-search-for-commons-seat/

    But I do know some Labour people in the North West, and normally they dismiss this speculation, not this time.
    The ghost of Patrick Gordon Walker smiles knowingly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,783
    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    That's rather unkind. Clowns are mostly quite well-meaning.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,343
    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,435
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    That's rather unkind. Clowns are mostly quite well-meaning.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC6YPQY0_28
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,809
    Utterly OT but I found out yesterday that the German word (der) Lump means a foul-mouthed blackguard, which I rather like.

    Not quite as perfect as a Gift meaning 'poison', but still pretty nice.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,223

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    I saw these graphs yesterday and wondered how "conscientiousness" was being measured.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,223

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    I blame Thatcher.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442
    edited August 9
    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    My point was more that the BBC felt it was appropriate to report Huckerbee's "thoughts" at all and certainly without rebuttal.

    Compare and contrast with the BBC in 2019 replacing footage of Boris Johnson's embarrassing behaviour at the Cenotaph with footage from 2016. I am not suggesting they do that for Starmer by the way.

    It can be genuinely reported that Starmer is performing sub-optimally without all the "made up" nonsense.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    That's rather unkind. Clowns are mostly quite well-meaning.
    Pennywise?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,980

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    I can see faragean and lowean, but who listens to Little Richard?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,625

    Utterly OT but I found out yesterday that the German word (der) Lump means a foul-mouthed blackguard, which I rather like.

    Not quite as perfect as a Gift meaning 'poison', but still pretty nice.

    There's pub in Berlin called Das Gift, at one point owned by Scottish rocker Barry Burns of Mogwai. Haven't visited it yet but definitely will on next trip.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    I blame Thatcher.
    Surely the blame lies fairly and squarely with Gordon Brown for creating the Lehman Brothers crash.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,934

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    That's far from my experience of that age group.

    Still, since it's behind a paywall, it's all rubbish. ;)
    It’s piquant that an article lamenting anti-sociality is hidden behind an antisocial paywall
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,625

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    That's rather unkind. Clowns are mostly quite well-meaning.
    Pennywise?
    Johnson?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,680
    edited August 9

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest. One powerful thing about Estonia is that the media itself is placed under considerable scrutiny, and the quality of life here is dramatically better because of it.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,763
    MattW said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    I can see faragean and lowean, but who listens to Little Richard?
    Good golly!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    That's far from my experience of that age group.

    Still, since it's behind a paywall, it's all rubbish. ;)
    It’s piquant that an article lamenting anti-sociality is hidden behind an antisocial paywall
    The rise of the subscription model of business is terrible, and one that is bad for all of us for several reasons.

    I've been musing a threader on this.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,934
    edited August 9
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest.
    I’m sorry. Are you seriously blaming “American tv drama”?!

    The TV has been around for 80 years. These social changes - on this scale, especially with the young - are quite new
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,018

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    Lowe seems like the result of some weird genetic experiment involving Roderick Spode and Warden Hodges.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,763
    Nigelb said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    Lowe seems like the result of some weird genetic experiment involving Roderick Spode and Warden Hodges.
    Put that light out!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest. One powerful thing about Estonia is that the media itself is placed under considerable scrutiny, and the quality of life here is dramatically better because of it.
    Social Media and the internet are international in a way that no previous media has been. So in the English language it is dominated by US discourse.

    The problem for Millennials is more simple though. They have been shafted by the gerontocracy that runs the country, lived for their entire lives in a stagnant economy, and know that it isn't going to get better.

    Of course they are mistrusting and disengaged.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
    Both are possible!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest. One powerful thing about Estonia is that the media itself is placed under considerable scrutiny, and the quality of life here is dramatically better because of it.
    Social Media and the internet are international in a way that no previous media has been. So in the English language it is dominated by US discourse.

    The problem for Millennials is more simple though. They have been shafted by the gerontocracy that runs the country, lived for their entire lives in a stagnant economy, and know that it isn't going to get better.

    Of course they are mistrusting and disengaged.
    Were you 'mistrusting and disengaged' when you were in your twenties?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest. One powerful thing about Estonia is that the media itself is placed under considerable scrutiny, and the quality of life here is dramatically better because of it.
    Social Media and the internet are international in a way that no previous media has been. So in the English language it is dominated by US discourse.

    The problem for Millennials is more simple though. They have been shafted by the gerontocracy that runs the country, lived for their entire lives in a stagnant economy, and know that it isn't going to get better.

    Of course they are mistrusting and disengaged.
    Were you 'mistrusting and disengaged' when you were in your twenties?
    No. I have always been a cheerful and optimistic person.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,980
    edited August 9

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    That's far from my experience of that age group.

    Still, since it's behind a paywall, it's all rubbish. ;)
    It’s piquant that an article lamenting anti-sociality is hidden behind an antisocial paywall
    The rise of the subscription model of business is terrible, and one that is bad for all of us for several reasons.

    I've been musing a threader on this.
    But it does provide a good base for individual beat journalists who are independents. It's a good development of blog monetisation from when there were people trying to do that.

    Here's one from my beat - Laura Laker. She charges £4 per month, which is enough to give slice of portfolio income in a specialist niche - whilst also being a bit of a hurdle to casual subscriptions. I need to think twice to see whether such a donation is better to a specialist charity who work on case around barriers, where it is 2 hours of officer-time pa.

    If some is good and knowledgeable, and Laura is that, it can be done. She has driven the move off a fairly popular specialist book.

    https://lauralaker.substack.com/
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,744
    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,018
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest. One powerful thing about Estonia is that the media itself is placed under considerable scrutiny, and the quality of life here is dramatically better because of it.
    Social Media and the internet are international in a way that no previous media has been. So in the English language it is dominated by US discourse.

    The problem for Millennials is more simple though. They have been shafted by the gerontocracy that runs the country, lived for their entire lives in a stagnant economy, and know that it isn't going to get better.

    Of course they are mistrusting and disengaged.
    The data suggests a similar trend across all age groups, I think; just that millennials come off worst.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,442
    nico67 said:

    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .

    All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.

    This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,018
    This is interesting.
    At least a part of its success appears to stem from its ethical principles which are lacking in the competition.

    Anthropic’s Quiet Edge in the AI Talent War
    The AI startup isn’t matching Meta’s sky-high salary offers. It’s still dominating when it comes to engineer retention.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/anthropics-quiet-edge-in-the-ai-talent-war-c48362ef?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,680
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    I blame their parents.
    The media can take their share of the blame. The stories we tell each other change our realities, and the constant drip of cheap American drama and the failure to foster debate or inspire individual duty has created tawdry and enervating social norms. As for the 3-minute attention span news media, well, you know the rest.
    I’m sorry. Are you seriously blaming “American tv drama”?!

    The TV has been around for 80 years. These social changes - on this scale, especially with the young - are quite new
    OK Boomer... Virtually no one under 40 watches live TV, so obviously not. Binge watching on the other hand...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,358

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    A good visual explanation of why "Belgium is so much better at policing small boats than France"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478
    Trump really does think he is a King

    https://x.com/arthistorynews/status/1912999662857990631
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    Rather amused by Nichola Sturgeon's gyrations in her biography denying specific allegations of lesbian affairs whilst leaving the door slightly ajar to the notion that she might have perhaps possibly in the past been, well, who knows...

    This is leaving a number of women in the greater Glasgow area having to come to terms with the fact that they might have actually slept with Jimmy Krankie.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,816
    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    Huckabee is a clown but AIPAC's influence is out of control. Here's Ireland being put under the jackboot

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amqu6C9u0oU
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
    1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke it
    2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
    3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,031

    nico67 said:

    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .

    All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.

    This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
    So why has Trump being telling Europe for ten years to spend more on defence ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,435
    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    Social media is making mince of people's brains.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478

    nico67 said:

    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .

    All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.

    This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
    So why has Trump being telling Europe for ten years to spend more on defence ?
    Actually he has been telling Europe to pay America more for defence, which is not quite the same thing
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Nigelb said:

    This is interesting.
    At least a part of its success appears to stem from its ethical principles which are lacking in the competition.

    Anthropic’s Quiet Edge in the AI Talent War
    The AI startup isn’t matching Meta’s sky-high salary offers. It’s still dominating when it comes to engineer retention.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/anthropics-quiet-edge-in-the-ai-talent-war-c48362ef?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

    Speaking as an engineer; good engineers don't particularly care about sky-high salaries. What they want is a 'good' salary and REALLY INTERESTING WORK with minimal interference from management.

    A very large multinational tech firm I know has just had an entire workgroup resign and move to a startup, which is less secure, and with no extra pay, just because the work should be more interesting, and with very little management b/s. They'll have to work harder, but they'll be free to just get on with what needs to be done. And these are not young engineers, but a few greybeards and others in their fifties and forties.

    So I can imagine an AI firm which offers good salaries, and has good perks, but also allows them to get on with interesting work, might appeal over working for a division of a massive hypercorp such as Meta.

    (Note: I am not saying they will work for no money; just that when they get to a certain pay level, depending on the person in question, the work starts to matter more. There's nothing worse for an engineer than to develop a product, get it to the stage where it could be sold, and then have it cancelled because of internal politics.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
    1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke it
    2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
    3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
    The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.

    (*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,596
    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    Old men waging war for nefarious reasons is something of a theme atm, isn't it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,093
    Burnham may be value, but I do not think there is a single seat where Labour can be guaranteed to win a by election. Certainly not Gorton, which has been trailed. Reform would start favourite
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,806
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    If you’re feeling cheerful this blithe summer morning, here’s an antidote

    Some terrifying data from the noble John Burn-Murdoch at the @FT

    People aged 16-40 are now the MOST introverted, the least trusting, the least helpful, the least outgoing, the most argumentative. Also their determination and conscientiousness have collapsed

    https://www.ft.com/content/5cd77ef0-b546-4105-8946-36db3f84dc43

    He blames the smartphone, inter alia

    Social media is making mince of people's brains.
    Or Skibidi brain rot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519
    Scott_xP said:
    Really? From what I see of the White House makeover he seems to think he is Liberace.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,031
    Scott_xP said:

    nico67 said:

    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .

    All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.

    This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
    So why has Trump being telling Europe for ten years to spend more on defence ?
    Actually he has been telling Europe to pay America more for defence, which is not quite the same thing
    That's what happens when you allow yourself to become dependent upon another country for defence.

    Europe didn't need to get itself in such a position - it was warned about it by Trump a decade ago.

    Europe instead chose to get itself in such a position and to laugh at Trump while doing so.

    I'm sure you remember all those pictures of Merkel criticising Trump which were posted on PB during his first term.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
    1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke it
    2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
    3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
    The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.

    (*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
    Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.
    Jobs don't pay people's bills
    Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
    The fabric binding society together is fraying

    We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,780
    edited August 9
    MattW said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    A sensible analysis is that, like Agent Anderson, he needs a constant feed of things to be outraged about to keep his base excited. He's at the "run to social media before checking if a thing actually exists" stage.
    deleted - already done today.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,253
    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478

    Europe instead chose to get itself in such a position and to laugh at Trump while doing so.

    I'm sure you remember all those pictures of Merkel criticising Trump which were posted on PB during his first term.

    The tragedy of course is that Trump is a joke.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519
    edited August 9
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.

    In any case, what I am looking at is the leadership betting, not whether she is the best choice.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,253
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
    Sorry, I meant Cooper! Rayner would be a better campaigner. But better than Farage? Probably not
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,639

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    If she gets anywhere near it we will know the country is well and truly fecked
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,639
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.

    In any case, what I am looking at is the leadership betting, not whether she is the best choice.
    Fact she is crap also comes in to it, just a windbag and out for herself and her dogma.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,809
    edited August 9
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
    Calling political opponents 'scum' then repeatedly refusing to apologise before having to* dragged out of her after a Conservative MP was murdered is a wretched look. Being 'northern' isn't some sort of fantastic virtue that makes up for that sort of nonsense.

    Edited extra bit: *it
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,244
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Really? From what I see of the White House makeover he seems to think he is Liberace.
    It reminds me of the makeover in my local hairdressers. Bought by a Turkish bloke.

    According to his cousin, who works there, the interior was measured and made up as a kit in a Turkish factory.

    It has the exact same gilt pseudo Robert Adams stuff, just that the barber chap went for a black background.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,244
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sort of on topic.

    An unhinged anti Starmer headline the Telegraph would be proud of.

    Good on the Robbie Gibb/Tim Davie BBC for reporting facts and not publishing partisan conjecture in its quest for fair truthful stories.. So, it turns out Starmer would have capitulated to the Nazis and lost us World War 2, so says Ambassador Mike Huckerbee.

    Thank goodness we had Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson and ARP Warden Farage running the show

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp78gd636o.amp

    Huckabee is a clown.

    The Israeli high command think that occupying the whole of Gaza is a very bad idea. More evidence that this war is being prolonged to keep Netanyahu out of prison.
    Old men waging war for nefarious reasons is something of a theme atm, isn't it.
    Euripides had comments on that….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,519
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
    Sorry, I meant Cooper! Rayner would be a better campaigner. But better than Farage? Probably not
    Yes, I agree on Cooper. She isn't a good campaigner.

    Farage can rabble-rouse on immigration very effectively, but his other policies are not popular even with Reform voters, so quite a problem when we get a campaign going.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,253
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
    Sorry, I meant Cooper! Rayner would be a better campaigner. But better than Farage? Probably not
    Yes, I agree on Cooper. She isn't a good campaigner.

    Farage can rabble-rouse on immigration very effectively, but his other policies are not popular even with Reform voters, so quite a problem when we get a campaign going.
    Policies, in an election campaign? Shurely some mistake.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,031
    Scott_xP said:

    Europe instead chose to get itself in such a position and to laugh at Trump while doing so.

    I'm sure you remember all those pictures of Merkel criticising Trump which were posted on PB during his first term.

    The tragedy of course is that Trump is a joke.
    No, jokes aren't dangerous.

    Trump is dangerous.

    Europe thought it could mock Trump without any repercussions.

    It couldn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,639

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    Year or two back we had an ayrshire chap go from ayrshire to IOM on a jetski to meet some bird he had met at a club whilst working there for a few weeks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,223
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Morning punters,

    Cooper is also value in that table imho.

    Cooper is the obvious play if Starmer is stepping down early. Burnam is Boris - the threat over the water parades by the desperate.
    No chance. Cooper is drinking from the poisoned chalice at the Home Office.

    Assuming that Starmer does retire voluntarily or involuntarily before the GE as I think likely, then there are 2 possibilities, the first being a contested leadership vote, the second being a coronation.

    If a contested vote, then it goes to a membership ballot, and Cooper, Streeting etc would not do well there. If a coronation then it is hard to see past the deputy leader, as she would be in temporary charge.

    So I think Rayner is the value bet.
    She would be Mrs May on steroids during an election campaign too, I suspect
    I don't think so. Rayner is a far better campaigner than anyone else in the cabinet.

    She will be met by a lot of snobbery from the Tories and MSM, but that may well to be her benefit. It would be a stark contrast to the privileged lives of her opposition.
    Sorry, I meant Cooper! Rayner would be a better campaigner. But better than Farage? Probably not
    Yes, I agree on Cooper. She isn't a good campaigner.

    Farage can rabble-rouse on immigration very effectively, but his other policies are not popular even with Reform voters, so quite a problem when we get a campaign going.
    Policies, in an election campaign? Shurely some mistake.
    Indeed. I doubt policies will be more than mentioned occasionally during 2029 campaign.

    Labour will want to frame the election as 'Stop Farage becoming PM, it will be chaos' vs Farage's 'Britain is broken and only Reform can fix it'.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,980

    nico67 said:

    Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .

    The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .

    All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.

    This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
    In a sense we are back to the possibility of Trump selling Ukraine down the river, as he attempted when he was trying to get his minerals deal and talking over Europe's head.

    That one was headed off at the pass. How to do that again?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,780
    malcolmg said:

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    Year or two back we had an ayrshire chap go from ayrshire to IOM on a jetski to meet some bird he had met at a club whilst working there for a few weeks
    Got done for it, too (though not in the way one might now imagine). But TBF he started from Galloway.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-55280466

    "A man who crossed the Irish Sea from Scotland to the Isle of Man "on a jet ski" to visit his girlfriend has been jailed for breaching Covid-19 laws.

    Douglas Courthouse heard 28-year-old Dale McLaughlan took four-and-a-half hours to travel from the Isle of Whithorn to Ramsey on Friday.

    McLaughlan, from North Ayrshire, made the crossing despite having never driven a water scooter before."
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,218

    Talking about Rupert Lowe.

    He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.


    The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
    Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.
    Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.
    Citation required.

    You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
    1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke it
    2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
    3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
    The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.

    (*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
    Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.
    Jobs don't pay people's bills
    Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
    The fabric binding society together is fraying

    We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
    Which leaves the Lib Dems …..
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