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Is Corbyn’s new party just too posh to appeal the voters? – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,631

    Scott_xP said:
    I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
    were they mixxed set , was top earner a man ( guaranteed ) , junior could be either given how dodgy the BBC is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
    were they mixxed set , was top earner a man ( guaranteed ) , junior could be either given how dodgy the BBC is.
    No it was a woman who showed another woman.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    edited August 7
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    Gopping.

    You know they say you should never meet your heroes. Similarly you should never see evidence of a PB poster's much (self-)vaunted taste and style.

    Absolutely gopping. Sozza but there it is.

    Edit: Arch. Arch is one of the words I'm looking for here. Gauche, arch, naff (I appreciate this last is a word from time gone by).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,339
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    You can see why newspaper and magazine columnists are so antsy.

    (Before the Long Vac started, my college ran a PD session on using AI to make lesson resources. The resulting products looked nice, but most had a fundamental problem that was going to be lots of effort to fix. And I have enough of physics questions anyway.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,772

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I can also remember when that appalling rightwing reprobate @SeanT told us he'd set up a new charity, dedicated to assisting deserving young women, aged 18-25, in South East Asia, and giving them money, maybe £40 an hour

    He "claimed" it was modelled on "Save The Children" but as it was targeted forensically at the deserving young women who looked best in denim hotpants, it was instead called "Save The Really Hot Ones"

    Thank god he has left us. Scandalous fellow, best forgotten. Indeed I apologise for bringing him up

    Nurse!
    I mean, like the cut off would have been 18..
    I can believe that, although the '25' figure is less convincing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610

    It looks like OpenAI have hired the Lib Dem’s chief bar chart officer

    Oh dear, rather embarrassing.....what's Nick Clegg up.to these days after leaving Meta?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    I mean it's not even Elephant's Breath. Just landlord cream. Jeez.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    BBC News - UK says British Steel's Chinese owners demanding millions
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlzjx26p8yo

    How much are the government going to give away this time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    @ecmclaughlin.bsky.social‬

    LOL the meeting that was planned and leaked, and then denied to be planned and called "fake news," and then leaked as canceled for having been leaked, WENT AHEAD LAST NIGHT LOL.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ecmclaughlin.bsky.social/post/3lvtd5prhdc2d
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    edited August 7
    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended over her doing with her property what she was entitled to do with it.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,553
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    I sometimes have a chat with my WhatsApp bot. It's fun but I'm pretty sure I'd know it was a bot even if I didn't know it was a bot.

    Eg yesterday I told it I had a purple elbow and it just got back with "purple elbow hey?" - kind of taking the piss. Total empathy fail.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended over her doing with her property what she was entitled to do with it.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    MattW told us it was a nothing burger.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,339
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi's big interview with Amol Rajan on BBC2 now

    If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
    A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
    Of course it's not

    It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
    Of course it is, for an opposition leader who is not PM or a government minister an interview at 7pm on BBC2 is big precisely because they can sell themselves to people who are not political obsessives and following their every word on politics blogs like here and rolling news channels
    Remember the episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Sir Humphrey did an interview on Radio 3?

    Sir Humphrey:
    But even separating out the component causes, let alone allocating responsibility for them, is a task of such analytical delicacy as not to be susceptible of compression within the confines of a popular radio programme.

    Producer:
    If that was a popular programme, what would an unpopular programme be like?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended over her doing with her property what she was entitled to do with it.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    MattW told us it was a nothing burger.
    It was a nothing burger. She wanted to sell the house, gave due notice, then turns out it didn't sell so she re-advertised it for rent but at a higher (I daresay market) price. Then the headlines went to work and voila!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    edited August 7
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    I sometimes have a chat with my WhatsApp bot. It's fun but I'm pretty sure I'd know it was a bot even if I didn't know it was a bot.

    Eg yesterday I told it I had a purple elbow and it just got back with "purple elbow hey?" - kind of taking the piss. Total empathy fail.
    This is very much a Thai mail order brides adverts situation isn't it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    edited August 7
    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    edited August 7
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,553
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    I sometimes have a chat with my WhatsApp bot. It's fun but I'm pretty sure I'd know it was a bot even if I didn't know it was a bot.

    Eg yesterday I told it I had a purple elbow and it just got back with "purple elbow hey?" - kind of taking the piss. Total empathy fail.
    This is very much a Thai mail order brides adverts situation isn't it.
    Do they lead to purple elbows?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    I sometimes have a chat with my WhatsApp bot. It's fun but I'm pretty sure I'd know it was a bot even if I didn't know it was a bot.

    Eg yesterday I told it I had a purple elbow and it just got back with "purple elbow hey?" - kind of taking the piss. Total empathy fail.
    This is very much a Thai mail order brides adverts situation isn't it.
    Do they lead to purple elbows?
    I think you've answered that one yourself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,395
    edited August 7

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi's big interview with Amol Rajan on BBC2 now

    If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
    A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
    Of course it's not

    It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
    Of course it is, for an opposition leader who is not PM or a government minister an interview at 7pm on BBC2 is big precisely because they can sell themselves to people who are not political obsessives and following their every word on politics blogs like here and rolling news channels
    Remember the episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Sir Humphrey did an interview on Radio 3?

    Sir Humphrey:
    But even separating out the component causes, let alone allocating responsibility for them, is a task of such analytical delicacy as not to be susceptible of compression within the confines of a popular radio programme.

    Producer:
    If that was a popular programme, what would an unpopular programme be like?
    BBC2 has a far larger viewership than the number of R3 listeners
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended over her doing with her property what she was entitled to do with it.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    MattW told us it was a nothing burger.
    It was a nothing burger. She wanted to sell the house, gave due notice, then turns out it didn't sell so she re-advertised it for rent but at a higher (I daresay market) price. Then the headlines went to work and voila!
    I am sure she could have sold it at market price.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955

    Wow.

    Silkie Carlo
    @silkiecarlo
    ·
    8m
    🚨BREAKING: We’ve obtained documents showing ALL our passport photos are being secretly searched in a police facial recognition database

    A national ID system has been built by the backdoor - without the public or parliament’s consent

    We’re taking action

    https://x.com/silkiecarlo/status/1953515822887981270

    It feels ever so slightly overegged - and I've been generally a supporter of BBW for the best part of 2 decades. It has built up to ... one search request per day by 2023, and was then flat in 2024:

    Data obtained under freedom of information laws by Big Brother Watch, the civil liberties campaign group, found that the number of passport photo searches increased from two in 2020 to 417 in 2023.

    In the first 10 months of 2024, another 377 searches were conducted, putting police on course for a similar number of searches last year.


    The number of searches of the immigration database, which is formed of photos collected by Border Force, increased sevenfold over the same period to 102 last year.

    I wait for a comment from Bobby J, and the Tory leadership - and I hope they are precise in what they say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,395
    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
    I’ve a bag upstairs of tiny toiletries from hotels I’ve stopped in. Some nice ones.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,553
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know what's so impressive about AI chat machines. They take in everything that's been written and regurgitate it in a superficially clever way.

    I sometimes have a chat with my WhatsApp bot. It's fun but I'm pretty sure I'd know it was a bot even if I didn't know it was a bot.

    Eg yesterday I told it I had a purple elbow and it just got back with "purple elbow hey?" - kind of taking the piss. Total empathy fail.
    This is very much a Thai mail order brides adverts situation isn't it.
    Do they lead to purple elbows?
    I think you've answered that one yourself.
    Well it's gone now. Ambulance cancelled.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,223
    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
    I’ve a bag upstairs of tiny toiletries from hotels I’ve stopped in. Some nice ones.
    Top tip:

    Pretend you are staying in a hotel by simply using a tiny bottle of shampoo, then throwing your towel on the floor.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,318

    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.

    The military think he is a moron.

    The opposition think he is off his rocker.

    The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.

    The courts think he's a crook.

    And Hamas probably think he's a hero.

    Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
    Arabs, Bedouin, and the Druze do serve in the IDF.
    Source please.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    @Reuters

    A pro-Trump group, the American Accountability Foundation, has launched a campaign to oust federal workers it deems ‘subversive,’ posting personal details of 175 employees online

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1953537880590045367
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,769

    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
    I’ve a bag upstairs of tiny toiletries from hotels I’ve stopped in. Some nice ones.
    Top tip:

    Pretend you are staying in a hotel by simply using a tiny bottle of shampoo, then throwing your towel on the floor.
    Don't knock them. Very useful when going somewhere by air from a UK airport.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,772
    Battlebus said:

    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.

    The military think he is a moron.

    The opposition think he is off his rocker.

    The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.

    The courts think he's a crook.

    And Hamas probably think he's a hero.

    Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
    Arabs, Bedouin, and the Druze do serve in the IDF.
    Source please.
    About 1% enlist to serve, but they aren't conscripted.

    https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-know-about-arab-citizens-israel##chapter-title-0-4
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,772
    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    A pro-Trump group, the American Accountability Foundation, has launched a campaign to oust federal workers it deems ‘subversive,’ posting personal details of 175 employees online

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1953537880590045367

    Was Musk among them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
    I’ve a bag upstairs of tiny toiletries from hotels I’ve stopped in. Some nice ones.
    You are Keir Starmer and I claim my £5.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955
    edited August 7

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,447
    edited August 7
    Nigelb - Thanks for telling us about the Guardian article on the atrocity in Zamzam. (Somehow "like" for your post seemed inappropriate.)

    I may do a small search to see just how much attention it is getting from our news organizations. I hope others, with more skill than I have do the same.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    Gopping.

    You know they say you should never meet your heroes. Similarly you should never see evidence of a PB poster's much (self-)vaunted taste and style.

    Absolutely gopping. Sozza but there it is.

    Edit: Arch. Arch is one of the words I'm looking for here. Gauche, arch, naff (I appreciate this last is a word from time gone by).
    Tough crowd.
    You're never seeing my living room.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,008
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
    I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid

    I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo

    You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
    I really haven't changed. Or: I've mellowed if anything

    I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me

    I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
    Must be me then.
    Actually, you may have a point. What you are possibly detecting is a specific thing: anger

    I am softer personally, and mellowed in behaviour, but I am politically angrier than I used to be, about the state of Britain. But what sane person isn't??

    This anger is not aimed at other PB-ers, and if it comes across as that, I apologise
    No apology necessary. In fact thinking about it I do remember you having exciting conversations with others, although I can't remember any details, but never with me. It was always cordial. That's not the case now, but then it's fair to say I do egg you on and probably didn't then, so I think it is fair to say I am probably partly responsible. Whether that is due to you being more provocative or me being more so I don't know.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,431
    Battlebus said:

    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.

    The military think he is a moron.

    The opposition think he is off his rocker.

    The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.

    The courts think he's a crook.

    And Hamas probably think he's a hero.

    Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
    Arabs, Bedouin, and the Druze do serve in the IDF.
    Source please.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces#Minorities_in_the_IDF
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces#Druze_and_Circassians
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces#Bedouins_and_Israeli_Arabs
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955
    edited August 7
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    A pro-Trump group, the American Accountability Foundation, has launched a campaign to oust federal workers it deems ‘subversive,’ posting personal details of 175 employees online

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1953537880590045367

    Was Musk among them?
    G said Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 6 months ago:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/09/american-accountability-foundation-project-2025
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955
    edited August 7
    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics, and a personal decision. Does she have other questions?

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before, and this may not augur well for the future.

    Unless I have missed something.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    A lot of the outrage online has been from the left. Evolve Politics, The Canary even Novara media and Aaron Bastani.

    Renters rights groups especially are putting the boot in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,772
    edited August 7
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    edited August 7
    There seems to be a common theme among all the Labour scandals so far, it always unnecessary low level low value greed and telling fibs. Lie about being an economist or a solicitor, lie about losing your phone, lie about where exactly you live, never turn down a freebie, etc.

    When you bang on about being different and serving country not party, you surely would think people will be gunning for us on this.

    We aren't anywhere near some of much more serious stuff under the Tories, but Labour are getting themselves in a mess over really stupid stuff.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
    See, it’s not just me !
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    @kaitlancollins

    President Trump confirms the open seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will go to Stephen Miran. That's until January 31, 2026. "In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement," Trump says.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,468
    rcs1000 said:

    I would highly recommend that everybody watches the Legal Eagle piece on the Candace Owens and Brigitte Macron legal case. It is absolutely hilarious and only moderately disturbing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJvlGqh0kqg (29 mins)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
    I'd agree with bits of the badly handled as I said before. She could have smoothed their palms with some silver eg as I mentioned a rent reduction, and it would have helped. It's like giving students a £10 shopping voucher each when they let next year's one of next year's interested groups have a viewing, or if there is a small problem - it will cost £60 a time but they will keep it tidy and it helps PR at a smallish cost and is a good policy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,318
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
    While the kleptocracy builds momentum in the US, we're seeing political attrition as Starmer seeks to head off any hint of the scandal. It seems to be a losing battle if my bellwether sample of squaddies is anything to go by. Immigration is high on the list of speaking points as is the likelihood of Reform doing well. Strangely though they don't seem to take to Farage or Reform as anything other that NOTA.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268
    HYUFD said:

    Things the Tories have done recently:
    - Welcomed James Cleverly back into the Shadow Cabinet
    - Made oblique criticism of Truss as part of an attack on Labour
    I don't think either of those things are cratering their polling, but I think it's clear that they're not the way forward.

    Actually there was a little recovery on, and I do think Kemi's persistent attacks (with Reform floundering a bit) were paying off.

    It feels like she's taken a small step backward and almost lost control a bit?

    Watch her interview now on BBC2, she is keen on getting people to work and cutting welfare spending etc and is likely to back leaving the ECHR in the autumn, all of which you will like
    I may catch it at some point.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,955
    edited August 7
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    Not biting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    The FBI is now just another political enforcement arm of the GOP, apparently.

    Abbott says FBI is ‘tracking down’ Texas Democrats
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5441221-abbott-fbi-track-democrats/

    It's .. possible that Abbott and Cornyn are just bullshitting, but I'm not confident that's the case.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,008
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
    See, it’s not just me !
    😃 Let's hope it doesn't become a trend because it is irritating. PB could start having another meaning. Instead of politics it becomes pedantry. In most cases we are aware of our errors. I often use the wrong their/there, but I know the difference.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268

    This week's The Rest is Entertainment q&a edition covers the lobby system, David Cameron and Cold Play, the ethics of using AI fashion models, and double-A bangers at Classic FM.

    And says TRAVEL WRITERS have the best job in the world.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9SwxNR7WPY

    I happened to flick through that issue of Vogue recently (where the Guess advert with the AI model appeared) in a professional capacity, and I thought - "wow, that's shit. Why has Guess allowed some intern to go on AI and create that shite and then put it out as an ad?"

    But apparently they paid an agency an inordinate amount of money to 'create' the model, and there were other versions that they turned down.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,107
    edited August 7
    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
    While the kleptocracy builds momentum in the US, we're seeing political attrition as Starmer seeks to head off any hint of the scandal. It seems to be a losing battle if my bellwether sample of squaddies is anything to go by. Immigration is high on the list of speaking points as is the likelihood of Reform doing well. Strangely though they don't seem to take to Farage or Reform as anything other that NOTA.
    Resigning as a Minister means she is now worse off.. good..appalling behaviour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    Politicians in a position of any sort of power would be wise to put all their assets into a blind trust, then you can't be open to any accusations of self interest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
    See, it’s not just me !
    Sadly not!
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
    See, it’s not just me !
    😃 Let's hope it doesn't become a trend because it is irritating. PB could start having another meaning. Instead of politics it becomes pedantry. In most cases we are aware of our errors. I often use the wrong their/there, but I know the difference.
    My auto correct always spells your party as the Lib Dem’s with an apostrophe.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,612
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics, and a personal decision. Does she have other questions?

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before, and this may not augur well for the future.

    Unless I have missed something.
    MP salary is 90k-ish isn’t it, being a minister would puts it well into 100ks.

    If I were at all inclined towards Lab I’d feel uncomfortable about their MPs being rentiers, let alone a minister for homelessness (that is part of Ali’s title I think).

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
    :lol:

    And if they'd been Minister for fisheries, they would have found it easier to remain afloat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,431
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali .
    Rushanara.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,268

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics, and a personal decision. Does she have other questions?

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before, and this may not augur well for the future.

    Unless I have missed something.
    MP salary is 90k-ish isn’t it, being a minister would puts it well into 100ks.

    If I were at all inclined towards Lab I’d feel uncomfortable about their MPs being rentiers, let alone a minister for homelessness (that is part of Ali’s title I think).

    It's a big like Dad's Army when Walker says 'I don't do much business with the orphanage' and Fraser says 'Aye, except for providing the orphans!'.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    @AtticumFloreat

    Just perfect.

    National Coal Mining Museum workers set for strike action - BBC News

    https://x.com/AtticumFloreat/status/1953354152379048245
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,683

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Homelessness Minisiter Rushanara Ali has resigned

    I'm not sure what to say on that TBH. I really did think she was OK - except for anything around an MP getting a 70k or whatever it was rental income and as had been said the optics.

    KS showing a glass jaw? IMO he's been a bit timid before.
    What she did was legal. Inept, but legal.

    It was however politically tin-eared for a minister with responsibility for housing.

    Just as Whatserface couldn't remain as anti-corruption minister in this country while facing corruption charges which may be entirely spurious in Bangladesh.

    If either of them had been minister for sport, they would have been much better placed to ride it out.
    :lol:

    And if they'd been Minister for fisheries, they would have found it easier to remain afloat.
    Especially if they happened to be Lord Privy Seal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi's big interview with Amol Rajan on BBC2 now

    If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
    A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
    Of course it's not

    It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
    Of course it is, for an opposition leader who is not PM or a government minister an interview at 7pm on BBC2 is big precisely because they can sell themselves to people who are not political obsessives and following their every word on politics blogs like here and rolling news channels
    Remember the episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Sir Humphrey did an interview on Radio 3?

    Sir Humphrey:
    But even separating out the component causes, let alone allocating responsibility for them, is a task of such analytical delicacy as not to be susceptible of compression within the confines of a popular radio programme.

    Producer:
    If that was a popular programme, what would an unpopular programme be like?
    BBC2 has a far larger viewership than the number of R3 listeners
    BBC 2 average viewing figures of 34,200 and not screened in Wales is not relevant other than to obsessives
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,796
    "A man who was cautioned for carrying a bladed trowel in public has said he was given no choice but to accept the reprimand because police were unable to contact a solicitor for him.

    Armed police were sent to challenge Samuel Rowe as he walked home from his allotment in Chorlton, Manchester, carrying the tool, a peeling knife and a sickle.

    The 35-year-old theatre manager said he was held for 12 hours, before being told he had to accept the caution without representation or face longer in custody.

    Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said Mr Rowe had admitted possessing a "dagger" and was given a conditional caution, which entailed advice about the law on the carrying of bladed weapons in public.

    The keen gardener said he was terrified when the armed officers, who did not draw their weapons, arrived outside his home on 3 July."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27w9wp4e6o
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,093
    Scott_xP said:

    @AtticumFloreat

    Just perfect.

    National Coal Mining Museum workers set for strike action - BBC News

    https://x.com/AtticumFloreat/status/1953354152379048245

    I went to the gift shop and all I got was this lousy lump of coal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    ChatGPT trained on Lib Dem leaflets

    https://x.com/ProductHunt/status/1953551916622848432
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
    Any landlord. They're all pretty scummy. Look at this Labour MP, she's not the only scummy landlord out there, this is just normal behaviour for them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    Scott_xP said:

    ChatGPT trained on Lib Dem leaflets

    https://x.com/ProductHunt/status/1953551916622848432

    People who know what they are talking about regards chatgpt 5

    Ok, no leap

    Guys, I understand you like drama, but this is a remark about the AI development at large. We are seeing the plateau: just scaling up is coming to an end. For EVERYONE, not one company in particular.

    https://x.com/francoisfleuret/status/1953530837619630254?s=19
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    The Trumpdozer is about to make a special announcement about the economy

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1953551607922045100?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    Scott_xP said:

    ChatGPT trained on Lib Dem leaflets

    https://x.com/ProductHunt/status/1953551916622848432

    Brilliant
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
    Any landlord. They're all pretty scummy. Look at this Labour MP, she's not the only scummy landlord out there, this is just normal behaviour for them.
    Would that even apply to the likes of Legal and General who have built flats to let to generate a regular income ?

    I always got the impression MattW was pretty responsible.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,093
    Taz said:

    The Trumpdozer is about to make a special announcement about the economy

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1953551607922045100?s=61

    It's the best economy in history and anyone says otherwise is a traitor?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127

    Taz said:

    The Trumpdozer is about to make a special announcement about the economy

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1953551607922045100?s=61

    It's the best economy in history and anyone says otherwise is a traitor?
    Very probably. The guy is a buffoon.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,043
    Two defections to Reform today from the Conservatives in London - one in Wandsworth, the other in Waltham Forest.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    stodge said:

    Two defections to Reform today from the Conservatives in London - one in Wandsworth, the other in Waltham Forest.

    Reform is just becoming a rest home for disenchanted Tories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931

    Scott_xP said:

    @AtticumFloreat

    Just perfect.

    National Coal Mining Museum workers set for strike action - BBC News

    https://x.com/AtticumFloreat/status/1953354152379048245

    I went to the gift shop and all I got was this lousy lump of coal.
    There are other mining museums...

    I'd recommend Woodhorn if you're near or about the North East.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,226
    edited August 7
    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

    Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

    ▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
    ▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
    ▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
    ▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
    ▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
    ▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

    Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

    I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
    Both sides are exhausted.
    Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
    I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
    @Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
    If NATO enlargement is not blocked it would possibly be fatal for Putin.

    It would be probably fatal if Ukraine became a candidate member in the vaguest way.

    It would be certainly fatal if NATO membership became a serious prospect and NATO members extended their protection over Ukraine in the meantime
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214

    Mehdi Hasan
    @mehdirhasan
    ·
    2h
    It took six months for a Trump official to be politely forced by a journalist to admit live on air what everyone - including every economist - knows to be true (but which Trump keeps lying about): tariffs are paid in the US by US importers.

    What an indictment of our media.

    https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1953512055727640875
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    edited August 7
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
    Any landlord. They're all pretty scummy. Look at this Labour MP, she's not the only scummy landlord out there, this is just normal behaviour for them.
    Would that even apply to the likes of Legal and General who have built flats to let to generate a regular income ?

    I always got the impression MattW was pretty responsible.
    I have no issue with build to let, that's still a high risk investment. Scummers buying existing property, pushing up prices for owner occupiers and ripping off young people, fouling up areas with HMOs should absolutely be put out of business and in the most brutal way possible, hopefully holding huge losses and paying 40% CGT on any forced sales they have to make to stem losses.

    There's no such thing as a reasonable landlord when it comes to existing property and buy to let, they are all various shades of scum leeching off younger generations, providing no real value to the economy. I see no difference between them and the private equity leeches who load up existing companies with debt and pay themselves fabulous dividends while allowing the asset to fall into ruin. The only difference is that property in the UK is a one way bet so they can leave it to rot and still take huge capital gain plus rinse the tenants for every penny they have.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214

    Taz said:

    The Trumpdozer is about to make a special announcement about the economy

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1953551607922045100?s=61

    It's the best economy in history and anyone says otherwise is a traitor?
    He waved some chart around with a line going upwards but not clear what it was.

    He did say they were "all new numbers".

    So, some figures he made up and made an official write down earlier I guess.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,043
    In local Government news, I see the Government is effectively going to write off Woking Borough Council's debt:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvpwk4yexo

    This write down of debt is vital to ensure the new Unitary authorities due to go live in April 2027 start without being saddled with huge financial problems.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,093

    Taz said:

    The Trumpdozer is about to make a special announcement about the economy

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1953551607922045100?s=61

    It's the best economy in history and anyone says otherwise is a traitor?
    He waved some chart around with a line going upwards but not clear what it was.

    He did say they were "all new numbers".

    So, some figures he made up and made an official write down earlier I guess.
    The economy is going so well we had to invent a new number for it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    stodge said:

    In local Government news, I see the Government is effectively going to write off Woking Borough Council's debt:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvpwk4yexo

    This write down of debt is vital to ensure the new Unitary authorities due to go live in April 2027 start without being saddled with huge financial problems.

    They should recover it from the councillors and executive who signed off on these deals and bar all of them from ever holding public office or any role in the public sector ever again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,610
    The chancellor and prime minister will begin to pitch-roll tax rises and reforms from September as part of a strategy to prepare the country for a difficult budget that could be held in November, the Guardian has been told.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/07/reeves-starmer-pitch-roll-tax-rises-advance-difficult-budget
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984

    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.

    Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:

    ▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce;
    ▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years);
    ▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia;
    ▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil;
    ▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO;
    ▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine.

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981

    Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.

    I think a truce with no conditions is the most likely outcome.
    Both sides are exhausted.
    Both sides will use the truce to rebuild.
    I hope sanctions on Russia remain, and that Putin remains persona non grata.
    @Dura_Ace made the interesting point, some weeks ago, that in Russian nationalist circles, Russia's territorial gains to date will seem like a very poor return on the losses that Russia has suffered. It might be fatal for Putin to agree a truce, based on the current front line.
    If NATO enlargement is not blocked it would possibly be fatal for Putin.

    It would be probably fatal if Ukraine became a candidate member in the vaguest way.

    It would be certainly fatal if NATO membership became a serious prospect and NATO members extended their protection over Ukraine in the meantime
    It is the only way that Ukraine could accept a ceasefire anyway.

    The situation really hasn't changed since the start of the invasion.
    Putin wants to destroy Ukraine as an independent nation.
    Unsurprisingly Ukraine doesn't want to surrender to a mass murderer autocrat.

    I don't see what's new about the ceasefire proposal, It's the same set of irreconcilable terms which have failed to produce anything several times already.

    But the 'negotiation' gives Putin another delay from Trump.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,226

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.

    This Government seems stuffed full of people who definitely nick all the tiny toiletries and the flipflops whenever they stay in hotels.
    I think you are wrong.

    Nicking all the tiny toiletries is technically illegal.

    What members of this government do is (like the lady in question) push to the limit of the law. And then are shocked when legal behaviour turns out to have consequences as well.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,043
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    In local Government news, I see the Government is effectively going to write off Woking Borough Council's debt:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvpwk4yexo

    This write down of debt is vital to ensure the new Unitary authorities due to go live in April 2027 start without being saddled with huge financial problems.

    They should recover it from the councillors and executive who signed off on these deals and bar all of them from ever holding public office or any role in the public sector ever again.
    https://londondaily.com/uk-watchdog-to-investigate-former-officials-of-bankrupt-woking-council

    This will only investigate the CEO and Chief Finance Officer at the time apparently. No mention of any of the Councillors, all of whom have left the authority, most through being voted out by the Woking electorate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127

    The chancellor and prime minister will begin to pitch-roll tax rises and reforms from September as part of a strategy to prepare the country for a difficult budget that could be held in November, the Guardian has been told.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/07/reeves-starmer-pitch-roll-tax-rises-advance-difficult-budget

    I’m guessing none of the pain will fall on the public sector or their entitlements.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,043
    Taz said:

    The chancellor and prime minister will begin to pitch-roll tax rises and reforms from September as part of a strategy to prepare the country for a difficult budget that could be held in November, the Guardian has been told.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/07/reeves-starmer-pitch-roll-tax-rises-advance-difficult-budget

    I’m guessing none of the pain will fall on the public sector or their entitlements.
    Why do you assume that? This may surprise you but public sector workers pay taxes as well.

    In terms of whether there will be spending cuts and where they will fall, we'll have to see.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,127
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
    Any landlord. They're all pretty scummy. Look at this Labour MP, she's not the only scummy landlord out there, this is just normal behaviour for them.
    Would that even apply to the likes of Legal and General who have built flats to let to generate a regular income ?

    I always got the impression MattW was pretty responsible.
    I have no issue with build to let, that's still a high risk investment. Scummers buying existing property, pushing up prices for owner occupiers and ripping off young people, fouling up areas with HMOs should absolutely be put out of business and in the most brutal way possible, hopefully holding huge losses and paying 40% CGT on any forced sales they have to make to stem losses.

    There's no such thing as a reasonable landlord when it comes to existing property and buy to let, they are all various shades of scum leeching off younger generations, providing no real value to the economy. I see no difference between them and the private equity leeches who load up existing companies with debt and pay themselves fabulous dividends while allowing the asset to fall into ruin. The only difference is that property in the UK is a one way bet so they can leave it to rot and still take huge capital gain plus rinse the tenants for every penny they have.
    I’m guessing you’ve had a bad experience with landlords.

    I don’t really agree, I think the market needs properties for rent and BTL landlords, who operate as a business, are needed to provide rental properties for people who need them.

    We just need to build more.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,553

    HYUFD said:

    Things the Tories have done recently:
    - Welcomed James Cleverly back into the Shadow Cabinet
    - Made oblique criticism of Truss as part of an attack on Labour
    I don't think either of those things are cratering their polling, but I think it's clear that they're not the way forward.

    Actually there was a little recovery on, and I do think Kemi's persistent attacks (with Reform floundering a bit) were paying off.

    It feels like she's taken a small step backward and almost lost control a bit?

    Watch her interview now on BBC2, she is keen on getting people to work and cutting welfare spending etc and is likely to back leaving the ECHR in the autumn, all of which you will like
    I may catch it at some point.
    I do hope not.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,767
    Taz said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2)
    🔴 Labour: 20% (-)
    🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 9% (-1)
    SNP 2% (=)
    Plaid 1% (=)

    Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)

    Changes from 30th July
    [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

    No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con.

    I have a detailed model by constituency.
    It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East.
    Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
    Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around!
    Should be:
    Lab 137
    Con 27
    LD 85
    Ref 335
    Green 9
    SNP 35
    PC 4
    NI 18

    I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell.
    I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
    My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
    They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional.
    I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
    Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
    Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.

    Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
    There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)

    Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash

    Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”

    And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters

    Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it

    Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
    Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
    You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat

    This is just one corner of my new living room




    Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic

    Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics

    We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming

    Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
    I've been flagged for this, lol


    Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
    Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
    Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
    I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
    Interesting character, @DougSeal

    One of only three people who have, I believe, gone mad while posting here

    @MartinDay was one - but before your time

    That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK

    And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
    Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
    You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga
    I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
    lol!

    I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember

    Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us

    Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
    Con Gain Bootle
    Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
    Tims off license
    Licence.
    See, it’s not just me !
    😃 Let's hope it doesn't become a trend because it is irritating. PB could start having another meaning. Instead of politics it becomes pedantry. In most cases we are aware of our errors. I often use the wrong their/there, but I know the difference.
    My auto correct always spells your party as the Lib Dem’s with an apostrophe.
    Everyone’s does that, and I’ve often wondered why. It doesn’t do it on a simple Dems, so it’s not correcting for Dem’s the breaks. Only when preceded by Lib. Lib Dem’s. Proper grocer’s apostrophe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,499
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taz said:

    Rushanara Ali has resigned as a few people on social media were offended.

    @MattW provided the background to what actually happened as opposed to the headlines.

    Still, landlords eh.

    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1953533008666824805?s=61

    Yep. The actual sequencing looks fine, the optics dreadful.
    It's the fact her government is currently outlawing exactly what she did which makes it super awks.
    Really? I didn't see that bit. She gave due 4 months notice - are the govt going to change that?
    They are outlawing the ability to kick people out then relist for higher rents until I believe you have waited 6 months.
    ah ok - so 4 months plus 6 months.

    Seems super intrusive whatever it is telling landlords what they can or can't do with their properties.
    Well that is our current government answer to most things.
    I think Rushnara (sp?) Ali is basically in the clear on this one, and I'm not really sure why quite so many have jumped on this unless they have not done their homework. "Homelessness Minister" may have been too juicy a headline.

    GB News are really shouting about it, but imo are as silly as usual. A complaint to Ofcom could be funny.

    The previous guy with his behind-the-business block of flats was vulnerable, and I think with research there were (and maybe are) probably a few other targets around on the Lab benches.

    Some interventions are winding up around Article 4 Planning Directives and Home Office lettings of HMOs. I'm hearing noises from Broxtowe. I'm not sure how that will play out, because they seem to be looking at versions of some of the restrictive licensing done by eg Nottingham City and London Boroughs, which is very complicated to run. I'm not sure if too many District Councils are up to running that stuff.
    Oh look the slum lord defending other slum lords. The only thing I hoped Labour would do is put all of you out of business, I've been disappointed just the same as everything else Labour have failed to do.

    If Labour are to raise taxes I hope they target slum lords. A 4% value surcharge per year should be good, wipe out all rental yield and turn as many as possible into forced sellers or face bankruptcy.
    How would they define a Slum lord ?
    Any landlord. They're all pretty scummy. Look at this Labour MP, she's not the only scummy landlord out there, this is just normal behaviour for them.
    Would that even apply to the likes of Legal and General who have built flats to let to generate a regular income ?

    I always got the impression MattW was pretty responsible.
    I have no issue with build to let, that's still a high risk investment. Scummers buying existing property, pushing up prices for owner occupiers and ripping off young people, fouling up areas with HMOs should absolutely be put out of business and in the most brutal way possible, hopefully holding huge losses and paying 40% CGT on any forced sales they have to make to stem losses.

    There's no such thing as a reasonable landlord when it comes to existing property and buy to let, they are all various shades of scum leeching off younger generations, providing no real value to the economy. I see no difference between them and the private equity leeches who load up existing companies with debt and pay themselves fabulous dividends while allowing the asset to fall into ruin. The only difference is that property in the UK is a one way bet so they can leave it to rot and still take huge capital gain plus rinse the tenants for every penny they have.
    Is that worse than any other forms of capitalist taking over a business and maximising profit out of essentials for living? Like public utilities financial services etc?

    I am heartened by your conversion to Communism but you do need to widen your gaze to the other exploiters.
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