I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.
On the other side of the coin, it's probably difficult to feel guilty about money if you're, say, a white van driver who does everything yourself and makes a decent living from it without being particularly wealthy.
True. Although there is white (van) privilege of course.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
I can't remember the PB-er who conjured the nickname "Creases" for wealthy jailed Lib Dem trouser-press owning MP Chris Huhne, but it was an immortally brilliant moment
I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
A lady, no less. And BBC Breakfast is in meltdown.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Con Gain Bootle Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM Tims off license
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Con Gain Bootle Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM Tims off license
I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
A lady, no less. And BBC Breakfast is in meltdown.
Im presuming she will be publicly shamed like Torode and Wallace?
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Con Gain Bootle Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM Tims off license
Sleazy Broken Tories on the Slide!
Turned out the poster who loved to post that turned out to be extremely sleazy....
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Con Gain Bootle Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM Tims off license
Sleazy Broken Tories on the Slide!
What does Anthony Wells over on UKPolling Report have to say?
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
Happy to be reminded of those names from the Good Old Days......
I was here near enough at the beginning. Names I remember from that time are yourself and some guy called SeanT (whatever happened to him). I have a fond memories of someone responding to you and mis typing Augustus Crap. I responded 'that's a bit harsh' and got a like from our 104 year contributor. Made my day. There are 'likes' and there are 'likes'. Some are more valuable than others.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
On topic, I think concept of intersectional socialism has done a lot of harm to the left.
It isn't untrue that single axis theories lacked nuance. But, ultimately, I am not sure how far it really takes you to say, "I recognise that my struggle for rights as as a middle class, gay, disabled, 20-something asian man has parallels with, but differs from, yours as a working class, straight, black, feminist pensioner..."
Also, you probably can't meaningful unite everyone who defines themself in an oppressor versus oppressed banner, otherwise you pretty quickly end up with plainly ludicrous "transexuals for Hamas" stuff. You have to sort of define who your team is in a way people can identify with.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
The Daily YouGov VI poll, out at 10pm Mon to Sat for the entire 2010 to 2015 parliament
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
Working environment for working girls is the proper term
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
Working environment for working girls is the proper term
I can also remember when that appalling rightwing reprobate @SeanT told us he'd set up a new charity, dedicated to assisting deserving young women, aged 18-25, in South East Asia, and giving them money, maybe £40 an hour
He "claimed" it was modelled on "Save The Children" but as it was targeted forensically at the deserving young women who looked best in denim hotpants, it was instead called "Save The Really Hot Ones"
Thank god he has left us. Scandalous fellow, best forgotten. Indeed I apologise for bringing him up
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
Working environment for working girls is the proper term
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
May be seeing a pattern that's not here, but Major is probably the most "least posh upbringing, pulled up by bootstraps" PM of my lifetime. Bit too young to properly remember Callaghan.
And whilst he was effective at surviving politically, it wasn't pretty to watch. We like the confident swagger of a Cameron, a Johnson or even a Corbyn, even if we don't like the direction that swaggering is going in. Those who have moved up in their lifetime, the Browns, Mays and even Sunaks, don't quite smell right, even if they're more capable?
Is there an issue that the confidence is in large part, about where your parents were? That the kind of people who make it from not very much never quite lose the anxious memory of the childhood clogs?
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
Working environment for working girls is the proper term
Sex work is real work.
Sex work is akin to modern slavery according to some.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
3 years for them to reach 40% as well.
They may do an Icarus, but the cold sea is still the most likely destination. Trump will be the spectre at the feast.
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.
Laura Trevelyan is a good example.
Yes, I could probably be friends with her. It depends though. I don't like too much stridency in a person.
“God has given us the papacy, let us enjoy it”, is a far healthier attitude towards inherited wealth.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
I really haven't changed. Or: I've mellowed if anything
I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me
I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
I really haven't changed. Or: I've mellowed if anything
I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me
I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
3 years for them to reach 40% as well.
They may do an Icarus, but the cold sea is still the most likely destination. Trump will be the spectre at the feast.
Councils and maybe Wales will be the blind date. They ain't getting a second date. Maybe a booty call if we are really drunk and sad
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
I really haven't changed. Or: I've mellowed if anything
I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me
I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
Must be me then.
Actually, you may have a point. What you are possibly detecting is a specific thing: anger
I am softer personally, and mellowed in behaviour, but I am politically angrier than I used to be, about the state of Britain. But what sane person isn't??
This anger is not aimed at other PB-ers, and if it comes across as that, I apologise
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Never forgetting "Ed Is Crap Is PM" which we had to read every day for about 5 years.
I've been commenting here so long I used to openly comment from brothels. I'd mention how surprisingly good the wifi was, and no one batted an eyelid
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
You have definitely become more edgy or provocative. You probably don't remember but we used to discus things 20 plus years ago and without any of the currant nonsense. I remember a discussion on religion where we were on very opposite side and there was not a single insult from you. Of course it might be me that ha changed.
I really haven't changed. Or: I've mellowed if anything
I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me
I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
You haven't offended me by saying 'mouthfeel' in some time which is very gratifying
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
May be seeing a pattern that's not here, but Major is probably the most "least posh upbringing, pulled up by bootstraps" PM of my lifetime. Bit too young to properly remember Callaghan.
And whilst he was effective at surviving politically, it wasn't pretty to watch. We like the confident swagger of a Cameron, a Johnson or even a Corbyn, even if we don't like the direction that swaggering is going in. Those who have moved up in their lifetime, the Browns, Mays and even Sunaks, don't quite smell right, even if they're more capable?
Is there an issue that the confidence is in large part, about where your parents were? That the kind of people who make it from not very much never quite lose the anxious memory of the childhood clogs?
Major's father had been a trapeze artist so the joke was that John Major was the only man to run away *from* the circus to join a bank.
Brown, May and Thatcher were sons and daughters of the manse (more or less) – probably the only three and certainly so close together.
I can also remember when that appalling rightwing reprobate @SeanT told us he'd set up a new charity, dedicated to assisting deserving young women, aged 18-25, in South East Asia, and giving them money, maybe £40 an hour
He "claimed" it was modelled on "Save The Children" but as it was targeted forensically at the deserving young women who looked best in denim hotpants, it was instead called "Save The Really Hot Ones"
Thank god he has left us. Scandalous fellow, best forgotten. Indeed I apologise for bringing him up
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
3 years for them to reach 40% as well.
They may do an Icarus, but the cold sea is still the most likely destination. Trump will be the spectre at the feast.
It is the stuff of myth really. SFAICS no-one thinks that Reform can govern well, including those who plan to vote for them; but no-one thinks anyone else can either; and even, unusually, all the people who don't plan to govern haven't got a plan either. It's as if we are expecting to watch King Lear - at the end everyone is dead and no-one still around has any idea what to do next. UK 2029-30.
OTOH, if Reform could, per impossibile, use the next three years to develop a coherent and popular programme it would be interesting. They would seem to have the field to themselves.
I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
A lady, no less. And BBC Breakfast is in meltdown.
Im presuming she will be publicly shamed like Torode and Wallace?
It would be funny if she has done Celebrity Masterchef.
There's a certain type of posh person whose reaction to their privilege is an almost paralysing sense of guilt. It can make them quite agreeable company. Eg my best friend in my 20s was like this. He wasn't a socialist, though, he was a liberal.
Laura Trevelyan is a good example.
Yes, I could probably be friends with her. It depends though. I don't like too much stridency in a person.
“God has given us the papacy, let us enjoy it”, is a far healthier attitude towards inherited wealth.
I notice the Currant Bun had a story the other day of a Top 50 earner at the BBC has been warned after thinking it was ok to show a junior colleague dick pics and ask which type of dick they preferred.
A lady, no less. And BBC Breakfast is in meltdown.
Im presuming she will be publicly shamed like Torode and Wallace?
It would be funny if she has done Celebrity Masterchef.
I’m hoping it’s Mary Berry being a filthy minx so that Bake Off is next scandal.
Here's the US offer which Putin will spend the next couple of months considering, before rejecting.
Onet claims to have received the content of the offer voiced by Witkoff:
▪️Ukraine and Russia will conclude not peace, but a truce; ▪️de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains (by postponing this issue for 49 or 99 years); ▪️lifting most of the sanctions imposed on Russia; ▪️in the long term, a return to importing Russian gas and oil; ▪️no guarantees of non-expansion of NATO; ▪️no promise to suspend military support for Ukraine. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1953410620230909981
Ukraine, of course, has not been consulted yet.
Interesting individual in the room, almost as if they are selling off / offering bits of the Ukraine already.
Leading Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev also attended the meeting with Putin and Witkoff and called the negotiations "successful."
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
May be seeing a pattern that's not here, but Major is probably the most "least posh upbringing, pulled up by bootstraps" PM of my lifetime. Bit too young to properly remember Callaghan.
And whilst he was effective at surviving politically, it wasn't pretty to watch. We like the confident swagger of a Cameron, a Johnson or even a Corbyn, even if we don't like the direction that swaggering is going in. Those who have moved up in their lifetime, the Browns, Mays and even Sunaks, don't quite smell right, even if they're more capable?
Is there an issue that the confidence is in large part, about where your parents were? That the kind of people who make it from not very much never quite lose the anxious memory of the childhood clogs?
Major's father had been a trapeze artist so the joke was that John Major was the only man to run away *from* the circus to join a bank.
Brown, May and Thatcher were sons and daughters of the manse (more or less) – probably the only three and certainly so close together.
Major's brother wrote a work 'Major, Major', unintentionally one of the funniest books ever. It is due for rediscovery. Auberon Waugh, IIRC, thought it was a classic.
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
May be seeing a pattern that's not here, but Major is probably the most "least posh upbringing, pulled up by bootstraps" PM of my lifetime. Bit too young to properly remember Callaghan.
And whilst he was effective at surviving politically, it wasn't pretty to watch. We like the confident swagger of a Cameron, a Johnson or even a Corbyn, even if we don't like the direction that swaggering is going in. Those who have moved up in their lifetime, the Browns, Mays and even Sunaks, don't quite smell right, even if they're more capable?
Is there an issue that the confidence is in large part, about where your parents were? That the kind of people who make it from not very much never quite lose the anxious memory of the childhood clogs?
Major's father had been a trapeze artist so the joke was that John Major was the only man to run away *from* the circus to join a bank.
Brown, May and Thatcher were sons and daughters of the manse (more or less) – probably the only three and certainly so close together.
Brown's father was a Minister in the Church of Scotland and May's a C of E Vicar, Thatcher's was a lay preacher in the Methodist church but not a full Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.
The military think he is a moron.
The opposition think he is off his rocker.
The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.
The courts think he's a crook.
And Hamas probably think he's a hero.
Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
Properly posh requires education at a major public school, ideally followed by a university education at Oxbridge, Durham, Bristol, St Andrews, Edinburgh or further training at Sandhurst or the Royal Agricultural University if you are joining the army or going to manage the family farm.
Your parents should ideally have a title and estate but if not at least a detached house with large garden and be from the professional classes or with inherited wealth themselves
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Indeed, nor is Alan Sugar despite being a billionaire and now a life peer.
Being posh is not meritocratic, you can become very rich and/or very powerful and still not be posh as it is largely dependent on who your parents were and where you were educated
🚨 South Park didn’t just go scorched earth, they napalmed the narrative.
This week’s episode has Dora the Explorer getting ICE-raided at her own show, then trafficked straight to Mar-a-Lago to give old men massages. That’s right. A kids’ cartoon character ends up massaging a geezer in Trump’s palace of denial.
Legal Eagle have analysed the Macron defamation suit against Candace Owens around her repeat and dig in deep claims that Madame Macron is a man, a paedophile, they are controlled by a globalist elite etc.
For anyone not up to date o detail, Candace Owens is a conspiraloon on the bonkers Right who used to be a staffer at Turning Point USA, and got herself chucked out of the Daily Wire for promoting antisemitic material - the editor being one Ben .. er .. Shapiro.
Legal Eagle have analysed the Macron defamation suit against Candace Owens around her repeat and dig in deep claims that Madame Macron is a man, a paedophile, they are controlled by a globalist elite etc.
For anyone not up to date o detail, Candace Owens is a conspiraloon on the bonkers Right who used to be a staffer at Turning Point USA, and got herself chucked out of the Daily Wire for promoting antisemitic material - the editor being one Ben .. er .. Shapiro.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
Plato went off the deep end while posting here and the ghost of ..... (Can't remember the name) did and I think got banned.
You couldn't even type Martin without your post getting binned at one time during the MartinDay saga I kept slagging off Martine McCutcheon for some reason and couldn't work out for ages why my posts were disappearing
lol!
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
Legal Eagle have analysed the Macron defamation suit against Candace Owens around her repeat and dig in deep claims that Madame Macron is a man, a paedophile, they are controlled by a globalist elite etc.
For anyone not up to date o detail, Candace Owens is a conspiraloon on the bonkers Right who used to be a staffer at Turning Point USA, and got herself chucked out of the Daily Wire for promoting antisemitic material - the editor being one Ben .. er .. Shapiro.
Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.
The military think he is a moron.
The opposition think he is off his rocker.
The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.
The courts think he's a crook.
And Hamas probably think he's a hero.
Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
So are several Jewish groups, including the ones that would be most aggressive in trying to seize Gaza. That probably balances it out.
It's the generals who are furious. They foresee an Iraq-style disaster.
As far as Jeremy Corbyn is concerned, my view has always been he thinks if he can talk to every elector indivudually he would win every election. Politics might have been like that once - it's not like that any longer.
The question, especially in my part of the world, is whether the anti-Labour "left" can coalesce around a single series of candidates (including, in Newham, a single Mayoral candidate) for the local elections next year.
Silkie Carlo @silkiecarlo · 8m 🚨BREAKING: We’ve obtained documents showing ALL our passport photos are being secretly searched in a police facial recognition database
A national ID system has been built by the backdoor - without the public or parliament’s consent
This week's The Rest is Entertainment q&a edition covers the lobby system, David Cameron and Cold Play, the ethics of using AI fashion models, and double-A bangers at Classic FM.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.
But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.
Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.
I'm going to work on the assumption you're another one on here in the "spending cuts" camp.
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
OK, I'll play.
Spending cuts for starters - Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself. Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think) Farming subsidies (£5 billion) Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll. Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion) Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.
The military think he is a moron.
The opposition think he is off his rocker.
The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.
The courts think he's a crook.
And Hamas probably think he's a hero.
Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
Arabs, Bedouin, and the Druze do serve in the IDF.
Indeed, nor is Alan Sugar despite being a billionaire and now a life peer.
Being posh is not meritocratic, you can become very rich and/or very powerful and still not be posh as it is largely dependent on who your parents were and where you were educated
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Why? I think it’s a good idea. Memories of your favourite trips.
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
Properly posh requires education at a major public school, ideally followed by a university education at Oxbridge, Durham, Bristol, St Andrews, Edinburgh or further training at Sandhurst or the Royal Agricultural University if you are joining the army or going to manage the family farm.
Your parents should ideally have a title and estate but if not at least a detached house with large garden and be from the professional classes or with inherited wealth themselves
These days its Exeter and slightly weirdly, Newcastle, posh chaps qua posh caps are no longer getting into Oxbridge.
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
And he did go to an independent prep school.
And he grew up in a big old beautiful detached house
PB is really quite posh, in itself, so it sets a stupidly high bar for poshness in others
To 94% of Brits, the Jezziah is posh, for sure
Properly posh requires education at a major public school, ideally followed by a university education at Oxbridge, Durham, Bristol, St Andrews, Edinburgh or further training at Sandhurst or the Royal Agricultural University if you are joining the army or going to manage the family farm.
Your parents should ideally have a title and estate but if not at least a detached house with large garden and be from the professional classes or with inherited wealth themselves
These days its Exeter and slightly weirdly, Newcastle, posh chaps qua posh caps are no longer getting into Oxbridge.
Things the Tories have done recently: - Welcomed James Cleverly back into the Shadow Cabinet - Made oblique criticism of Truss as part of an attack on Labour I don't think either of those things are cratering their polling, but I think it's clear that they're not the way forward.
Actually there was a little recovery on, and I do think Kemi's persistent attacks (with Reform floundering a bit) were paying off.
It feels like she's taken a small step backward and almost lost control a bit?
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.
But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.
Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.
I'm going to work on the assumption you're another one on here in the "spending cuts" camp.
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
OK, I'll play.
Spending cuts for starters - Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself. Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think) Farming subsidies (£5 billion) Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll. Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion) Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Thanks for taking the trouble to respond.
I don't agree with all of it but there are some good ideas in there. I suspect the Northern Ireland subsidies will stay until either hell freezes over or the Republic becomes so economically attractive the Northerners will vote to join it (probably about 10 minutes after hell freezes over) which blows a hole in the numbers. I'm also not fure how ending or reducing farming subsidies will play.
I suspect the Government is looking long and hard at what the Danish Government has done on immigration and integration (or it should be). Whether it's workable here, however, is debatable.
The other aspect is the 4% of illegal arrivals are driving the debate, not the 96% who arrive legally. Immigration is now viewed almost exclusively through the prism of the "boats" rather than a genuine attempt to understand the level of migration we need, particularly in areas with skill shortages.
Things the Tories have done recently: - Welcomed James Cleverly back into the Shadow Cabinet - Made oblique criticism of Truss as part of an attack on Labour I don't think either of those things are cratering their polling, but I think it's clear that they're not the way forward.
Actually there was a little recovery on, and I do think Kemi's persistent attacks (with Reform floundering a bit) were paying off.
It feels like she's taken a small step backward and almost lost control a bit?
Watch her interview now on BBC2, she is keen on getting people to work and cutting welfare spending etc and is likely to back leaving the ECHR in the autumn, all of which you will like
Kemi, 'Brexit was very divisive and some thought if we left the EU everything would be fine which was wrong'. She does though want to use the reclaimed powers well
If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
Benjamin Netanyahu's Special Military Operation progresses with him announcing he wants to control all of Gaza.
The military think he is a moron.
The opposition think he is off his rocker.
The public are split, but a significant percentage think he is a plonker.
The courts think he's a crook.
And Hamas probably think he's a hero.
Remember the IDF is a conscript army but does not reflect the population of Israel as a whole. Arabs (21% of the population) are 'exempted'. The world's most moral army or the world's most segregated?
Arabs, Bedouin, and the Druze do serve in the IDF.
While the highly religious Jews do not.
There's an awful lot of resentment from younger, secular Jews, that they are the ones doing the fighting and the dying for the Hasidic settler community.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.
But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.
Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.
I'm going to work on the assumption you're another one on here in the "spending cuts" camp.
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
OK, I'll play.
Spending cuts for starters - Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself. Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think) Farming subsidies (£5 billion) Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll. Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion) Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.
But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.
Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.
I'm going to work on the assumption you're another one on here in the "spending cuts" camp.
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
OK, I'll play.
Spending cuts for starters - Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself. Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think) Farming subsidies (£5 billion) Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll. Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion) Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Chagos is not £20bn/year.
"Financial Terms • The UK will pay Mauritius approximately £165 million annually for the first three years, followed by £120 million annually, with subsequent adjustments for inflation. "
Which comes out to 20bn if you sum it up, but is well under 1% of that on an annual basis.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
Fuck me, get rid of the shelf unit. It may be artisanly crafted from Finnish birch but it looks Ikea laminate all the way.
If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
Of course it's not
It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
Corbyn is not that posh, he went to a grammar school and did not attend Oxbridge or even a Russell Group university, Starmer's school was a private school when he left it and he has an Oxford degree. Starmer also won ABs and voters earning over £70,000 and mortgage holders last year while Corbyn won only C1s and DEs in 2017 and only renters in 2019.
That said, while Starmer's party may be posher than Corbyn's was and will be, Corbyn is right to ensure private schools don't become even posher by removing bursaries and scholarships due to VAT on fees from Starmer's government
Of course he's posh. He's called 'Jeremy', FFS. And his brother is called 'Piers'.
I would highly recommend that everybody watches the Legal Eagle piece on the Candace Owens and Brigitte Macron legal case. It is absolutely hilarious and only moderately disturbing.
I can also remember when that appalling rightwing reprobate @SeanT told us he'd set up a new charity, dedicated to assisting deserving young women, aged 18-25, in South East Asia, and giving them money, maybe £40 an hour
He "claimed" it was modelled on "Save The Children" but as it was targeted forensically at the deserving young women who looked best in denim hotpants, it was instead called "Save The Really Hot Ones"
Thank god he has left us. Scandalous fellow, best forgotten. Indeed I apologise for bringing him up
Hope the government doesn't put tax on betting winnings.
Taxing losses would take in a few bob. (Having said that I am neutral so far on betting in 2025. I was, as always, on the losing side of the ledger for 2025 until Swift Winds won at 40/1 at Brighton this very afternoon. This state of affairs won't last long).
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Three and a half years is plenty of time for Reform to crash and burn.
Put them under ome scrutiny. See how they look when their answer to everything is "Er...."
There’s an article in the magnificent Spectator which says 45% of British voters want zero new migrants and a large scale remigration programme (YouGov - if the Spec is quoting correctly)
Half of Britons are of the opinion that got @williamglenn banned on here for being too fash
Like it or not the British have swung wildly to the right on all this and - I suspect - this time they won’t be satisfied with “oh we’ve moved them from hotels to big houses on your street” and “we send back two a week to France. Sometimes”
And remember immigration is now the single most important issue for voters
Do you not see how this pans out? All Farage has to do is promise minimal migration; the end of the boats: the deportation of much of the Boriswave - and he will easily win. That’s it
Everyone has now belatedly realised that many of our other problems stem directly from obscene levels of net immigration
Everyone has realised that the huge increase in immigration has given wrong uns the opportunity to blame immigration for the government's many failings.
You were claiming the other day that I was an interior decorating fool for putting my own photos on my wall, not art, as I do up my flat
This is just one corner of my new living room
Top right is a photo with no colour filter. It’s a woman serving me a gin and tonic in Nashville Tennessee. Halfway through a fucking amazing roadtrip I did from Nashville down to Natchez then to New Orleans. Epic
Bottom left is a photo of the billionaire (doffing his hat) who gave me ayahuasca. That’s taken in his special “ayahuasca taking” pyramid-dome, with the oculus, on the Balearics
We are about to sit down and consume little cups of the sacred vine. An hour after this photo I was chatting with God about global warming
Now, who the feck wants someone else’s stupid art on the wall when I can have THAT
I've been flagged for this, lol
Now unflagged. So, not only pathetic, but cowardly and pathetic - but also entertaining. Who was it? @bondegezou? @kinabalu? Someone else ending in oo? You?
Come off it. I don't flag. Not even the most racist of your racist posts have ever driven me to that.
Flagging is the act of a pitiful poltroon, and whatever else I may think of you (much of it exaggerated on here for my personal entertainment) no, I don't take you for a poltroon, let alone a pitiful one. So, fair enough
I remember Doug Seal calling you a pontificating poltroon. Very strong post that was.
That crazy dude in Scotland, @jonquil or something. Hated motorbikes. Total meltdown, spectacular but sad. Hope he's OK
And Mister Seal, who came back recently for a bit and seemed OK. Ins'allah
As opposed to the larger number who are mad to start with.
Well, yes
The rates of neurodiversity on here must be off the dial. And I very much count myself in that. Narcissisic, addiction-prone, somewhat bipolar, insane risk-taking impulsivity, weirdly rude to people I've never met
Hey ho. It gets us through the day
I am just brilliant and have no issues, life is a breeze so far, very lucky.
‘They slaughtered us like animals’: the inside story of how one of the biggest atrocities of the Sudan war unfolded in Zamzam As the UK prepared to host a global summit on bringing peace to Sudan, the RSF paramilitary began a ‘genocidal’ massacre in Zamzam refugee camp. But when reports emerged of the killings, London held its silence. For the first time, using intelligence reports and witness testimony, we piece together what occurred during the April atrocity – and why it was not stopped https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline
And apparently actively ignored by our government, and others, as it happened.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has suggested that she is open to the idea of raising taxes on the gambling sector to fund the removal of the two-child benefit cap.
Of course what'll happen is that she crushes a flourishing industry while the aimed-for extra babies or whatever the point is don't happen.
But by the time this is obvious people will take the extra benefits for granted and another Chancellor won't be able to cancel it.
Completely intellectually bankrupt, and making the country literally bankrupt.
I'm going to work on the assumption you're another one on here in the "spending cuts" camp.
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
OK, I'll play.
Spending cuts for starters - Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself. Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think) Farming subsidies (£5 billion) Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll. Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion) Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Chagos is not £20bn/year.
"Financial Terms • The UK will pay Mauritius approximately £165 million annually for the first three years, followed by £120 million annually, with subsequent adjustments for inflation. "
Which comes out to 20bn if you sum it up, but is well under 1% of that on an annual basis.
As a provincial science teacher, I suspect that confusion between capital and revenue costs is at the the root of a lot of our problems as a state.
If it’s on BBC2 at 19:30, it’s not a big interview.
A 45 minute interview in the early evening on the BBC for a party leader of a party not in government and polling less than 20% in third place outside of a GE campaign is a big interview
Of course it's not
It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
Of course it is, for an opposition leader who is not PM or a government minister an interview at 7pm on BBC2 is big precisely because they can sell themselves to people who are not political obsessives and following their every word on politics blogs like here and rolling news channels
Comments
What did he do.
I love hearing old PB lore. It's like a folk history of an aural culture. It's never written down but the Elders Remember
Who else in the world will understand the term "Swissnick"? Only us
Baxtered, lagershed, gaylording ponceyboots, Martin Day, Martin Croxall arrested on telly, farmy farm, Creases, the Finland Rumour, on it goes. Lovely
"As rich as Creases"
GENIUS
Ed Miliband Is Crap Is PM
Tims off license
I'd probably get arrested just for saying "brothels" now, and PB would be taken down by the Online Safety Gestapo
It isn't untrue that single axis theories lacked nuance. But, ultimately, I am not sure how far it really takes you to say, "I recognise that my struggle for rights as as a middle class, gay, disabled, 20-something asian man has parallels with, but differs from, yours as a working class, straight, black, feminist pensioner..."
Also, you probably can't meaningful unite everyone who defines themself in an oppressor versus oppressed banner, otherwise you pretty quickly end up with plainly ludicrous "transexuals for Hamas" stuff. You have to sort of define who your team is in a way people can identify with.
He "claimed" it was modelled on "Save The Children" but as it was targeted forensically at the deserving young women who looked best in denim hotpants, it was instead called "Save The Really Hot Ones"
Thank god he has left us. Scandalous fellow, best forgotten. Indeed I apologise for bringing him up
And whilst he was effective at surviving politically, it wasn't pretty to watch. We like the confident swagger of a Cameron, a Johnson or even a Corbyn, even if we don't like the direction that swaggering is going in. Those who have moved up in their lifetime, the Browns, Mays and even Sunaks, don't quite smell right, even if they're more capable?
Is there an issue that the confidence is in large part, about where your parents were? That the kind of people who make it from not very much never quite lose the anxious memory of the childhood clogs?
I used to go into insane rants of insulting verbiage, these days I rein it in. Turned into an old softy, that's me
I used to be wild, now I talk about interior decorating
I am softer personally, and mellowed in behaviour, but I am politically angrier than I used to be, about the state of Britain. But what sane person isn't??
This anger is not aimed at other PB-ers, and if it comes across as that, I apologise
Brown, May and Thatcher were sons and daughters of the manse (more or less) – probably the only three and certainly so close together.
OTOH, if Reform could, per impossibile, use the next three years to develop a coherent and popular programme it would be interesting. They would seem to have the field to themselves.
So many drivrs (most of them immigrants). Yet they are all going to lose their jobs when Waymo comes to London. What will they do?!
My god, my god, my god
Your parents should ideally have a title and estate but if not at least a detached house with large garden and be from the professional classes or with inherited wealth themselves
Okay, three simple questions - what gets cut? By how much does it get cut?
Third question - in what way do spending cuts help people stuck in rental accommodation unable to afford the deposit on a home of their own?
Being posh is not meritocratic, you can become very rich and/or very powerful and still not be posh as it is largely dependent on who your parents were and where you were educated
@allenanalysis
🚨 South Park didn’t just go scorched earth, they napalmed the narrative.
This week’s episode has Dora the Explorer getting ICE-raided at her own show, then trafficked straight to Mar-a-Lago to give old men massages. That’s right. A kids’ cartoon character ends up massaging a geezer in Trump’s palace of denial.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1953499302363648133
Legal Eagle have analysed the Macron defamation suit against Candace Owens around her repeat and dig in deep claims that Madame Macron is a man, a paedophile, they are controlled by a globalist elite etc.
For anyone not up to date o detail, Candace Owens is a conspiraloon on the bonkers Right who used to be a staffer at Turning Point USA, and got herself chucked out of the Daily Wire for promoting antisemitic material - the editor being one Ben .. er .. Shapiro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJvlGqh0kqg
(She also has a $300k bet with Piers Morgan that Mme Macron is a man.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/candace-owens-piers-morgan-bet-bridgette-macron-b2802795.html )
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1953362218327662620
It's the generals who are furious. They foresee an Iraq-style disaster.
As far as Jeremy Corbyn is concerned, my view has always been he thinks if he can talk to every elector indivudually he would win every election. Politics might have been like that once - it's not like that any longer.
The question, especially in my part of the world, is whether the anti-Labour "left" can coalesce around a single series of candidates (including, in Newham, a single Mayoral candidate) for the local elections next year.
Silkie Carlo
@silkiecarlo
·
8m
🚨BREAKING: We’ve obtained documents showing ALL our passport photos are being secretly searched in a police facial recognition database
A national ID system has been built by the backdoor - without the public or parliament’s consent
We’re taking action
https://x.com/silkiecarlo/status/1953515822887981270
And says TRAVEL WRITERS have the best job in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9SwxNR7WPY
Spending cuts for starters -
Northern Ireland subsidies (£15-20 billion). If we're stuck with it, parasite piece of crap can pay for itself.
Sickness and disability benefits limited to pre-pandemic levels (£15 billion I think)
Farming subsidies (£5 billion)
Foreign aid (£10 billion). Allow asylum seekers to work getting them off the government's payroll.
Cancelling the Chagos giveaway and the pointless public sector pay rises Labour give away the moment it was elected (say £20 billion)
Ending DEI and green crap in government (£small directly but satisfying)
That's about £70-80 billion I think without breaking a sweat.
Happy to hear of other suggestions. Counter-balancing that I'd spend rather more on Ukraine aid and rebuilding our own military and criminal justice system (say £15 billion together).
Third question is a non-sequitur setting up a strawman. What helps people in rentals is not spending cuts, it's increasing the supply of housing by raising self-build to European levels (60% in France and Germany, 80% in Austria compared to 10% here) by making farmland available for housing development. That also benefits the Exchequer by raising economic growth around our most productive cities, and getting them off housing benefit.
Course, it probably won't work for one reason or another.
I MEAN IT
https://thetab.com/2025/01/17/the-russell-group-unis-where-the-most-private-school-students-are-lurking-in-2025
- Welcomed James Cleverly back into the Shadow Cabinet
- Made oblique criticism of Truss as part of an attack on Labour
I don't think either of those things are cratering their polling, but I think it's clear that they're not the way forward.
Actually there was a little recovery on, and I do think Kemi's persistent attacks (with Reform floundering a bit) were paying off.
It feels like she's taken a small step backward and almost lost control a bit?
I don't agree with all of it but there are some good ideas in there. I suspect the Northern Ireland subsidies will stay until either hell freezes over or the Republic becomes so economically attractive the Northerners will vote to join it (probably about 10 minutes after hell freezes over) which blows a hole in the numbers. I'm also not fure how ending or reducing farming subsidies will play.
I suspect the Government is looking long and hard at what the Danish Government has done on immigration and integration (or it should be). Whether it's workable here, however, is debatable.
The other aspect is the 4% of illegal arrivals are driving the debate, not the 96% who arrive legally. Immigration is now viewed almost exclusively through the prism of the "boats" rather than a genuine attempt to understand the level of migration we need, particularly in areas with skill shortages.
There's an awful lot of resentment from younger, secular Jews, that they are the ones doing the fighting and the dying for the Hasidic settler community.
• The UK will pay Mauritius approximately £165 million annually for the first three years, followed by £120 million annually, with subsequent adjustments for inflation. "
Which comes out to 20bn if you sum it up, but is well under 1% of that on an annual basis.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2025/08/07/prince-andrew-lost-virginity-11-years-old-biography-claims
It might be to you but then you are consumed by politics
Excellent Ben, keep up with details of your progress.
‘They slaughtered us like animals’: the inside story of how one of the biggest atrocities of the Sudan war unfolded in Zamzam
As the UK prepared to host a global summit on bringing peace to Sudan, the RSF paramilitary began a ‘genocidal’ massacre in Zamzam refugee camp. But when reports emerged of the killings, London held its silence. For the first time, using intelligence reports and witness testimony, we piece together what occurred during the April atrocity – and why it was not stopped
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline
And apparently actively ignored by our government, and others, as it happened.