Mr. Socrates, if the reports of Robinson deliberately misunderstanding or being plain moronic about UKIP's migration policies on the local election coverage were accurate then it's becoming something of a pattern.
I think 6/4 on Labour is a terrible price at the moment. The Euro elections are UKIPs elections. If they can get 25% in County elections then I think it is likely they will get 40% plus in the euros. There will still be an anti establishment feeling around in a year unless there is a dramatic change. I make UKIP a 1/10 shot to win the poll. My guess at the percentages would be UKIP 42%, labour 26% tories 18% Lib dems 10% others 4%. The euros are a free vote and people from all political persuasions will use it to protest.
Going back to the previous thread I do think labour are being a little too complacent and just think that they are going to win as they are the opposition party and the government are not popular. Times have changed from the 90s and I think labour will need to up their game and come up with some coherent policies soon. 6 months ago I thought labour were shoe ins at the next GE. Their performance last Thursday both in the By- election and the county elections has made me change my view. I now have absolutely no idea who will win. If politics has shifted to the right and the tories somehow embrace this then this 1% chance of winning prediction will seem a little bit daft.
We would also save a net 10 billion GBP per year in, ah, "protection money" to Brussels.
This £10 billion GBP is figure that euro-sceptics role out everytime there's a disucssion on the EU. The real figure has to take into account the positive benefits of trade with EU partners, access to a 500m market etc - this needs to be factored in. There is also the secondary impact of non-EU trade if the UK left the EU - probably very difficult to quantity but I'm guesssing it won't be positive.
Leaving the EU normally means staying in the EEA so free trade stays.
The issue that UKIP have to address though is that if that is the case then their immigration policy regarding the EU will become an issue because the same freedom of movement rules apply to the EEA.
The only option for the UK (and I think it is a reasonable one) would be to rejoin EFTA which has similar trading terms but not the automatic free movement of people. The UK was a founding member of EFTA in 1960 but left as a part of becoming a member of the EEC in 1973.
We would also save a net 10 billion GBP per year in, ah, "protection money" to Brussels.
This £10 billion GBP is figure that euro-sceptics role out everytime there's a disucssion on the EU. The real figure has to take into account the positive benefits of trade with EU partners, access to a 500m market etc - this needs to be factored in. There is also the secondary impact of non-EU trade if the UK left the EU - probably very difficult to quantity but I'm guesssing it won't be positive.
No, the 10 billion is the headline number for how much we pay in contributions. And even that is a net number. A more accurate number would be the 18 billion gross we are paying.
If you want to throw in the supposed benefits you mention then you should also throw in the huge detrimental effects of membership including the cost of all the laws and red tape we are forced to adopt. One good reason why businesses are becoming ever more eurosceptic.
And given the huge trade deficit we 'enjoy' with the EU I see no reason to believe your guesses about future trade with the EU either.
Right-wingers seem to forget that it's the EU that entrenches right-wing ideas like free trade and fixed VAT rates.
No it doesn't. The EU is one of the worst protectionist blocs in the world. Free Trade is just that. It is not something that you can claim applies just to one section of the world market whilst enacting barriers against the rest of the world.
[Lawson said:] "Too much of British business and industry feels... secure in the warm embrace of the European single market and is failing to recognise that today's great export opportunities lie in the developing world, particularly in Asia."
In other words, he is not claiming that those who run our companies agree with him that exit from the EU is optimal for them or the economy.
As it happens, those who run our biggest companies would tend to be horrified at the idea of withdrawal from the EU.
Did you notice how he so deftly changed from Lawson's "much of British business and industry" to "those who run our biggest companies"?
There are almost five million companies in the UK, and they do not all have the same views as the FTSE 100. Peston is just part of the same set of Oxford PPE graduates that thinks his little bubble represents the opinion of people throughout the country. We need to do what's best for business overall, not a handful of big boys based in the West End.
He later tries to cover himself with this:
Of course smaller companies, including smaller City ones, are more patriotic in a conventional sense. But right now and in recent years they have been less important to British economic performance than the giant companies - although the government is desperate for smaller business to increase its relative output and influence.
Less important to British economic performance than the giant companies? I find that hard to believe. SMEs and large companieshave very similar levels of output (£1.53 trillion versus £1.60 trillion), but I hardly think a company of 250 employees, the division here, counts as "giant". If we use the next often used cut off barrier, 500 employees, it's almost certain those above that are a minority of UK output.
We would also save a net 10 billion GBP per year in, ah, "protection money" to Brussels.
This £10 billion GBP is figure that euro-sceptics role out everytime there's a disucssion on the EU. The real figure has to take into account the positive benefits of trade with EU partners, access to a 500m market etc - this needs to be factored in. There is also the secondary impact of non-EU trade if the UK left the EU - probably very difficult to quantity but I'm guesssing it won't be positive.
"the positive benefits of trade with EU partners, access to a 500m market etc - this needs to be factored in."
Which would still occur if the UK was outside Europe. It's not as if the mainland will raise their drawbridges and repel all trade coming across the channel.
Indeed, it has been argued that being in the EU has actually hindered UK trade with the rest of the world.
I'm not in favour of full withdrawal of the EU, and dislike the scare arguments on both sides. But I want a say. Let both sides present their positions, and let the public decide. I honestly don't know at the moment which way I'd vote - it would depend on the question and the situation at the time.
One thing is clear: no-one in the UK has voted for membership of the organisation we are currently in. The EU is a very different beast from the EEC voted for in 1975.
All this talk of the EU and everyone is missing the good news
This time it comes on an politically unfashionable but nonetheless vital metric: inflation.
The British Retail Consortium announced that "Shop Price Inflation" (SPI) fell in April to its lowest level for three and a half years.
The figure declined to 0.4% from 1.4% in March, with food inflation dropping to 2.9% from 3.5% month-on-month and non-food falling to deflationary territory, down 1.0% in April after a 0.2% rise the previous month.
One major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is that food inflation has been running at around 4% per annum and 40% of all household purchases are in the food sector. Couple this with above average rises in petrol, household energy supplies, public transportation and property rental costs and the absence of a 'feelgood factor' seems inconsistent with overall CPI running at around 2.7%. The fact that non-food goods, excluding those stated above, are deflating (-1.0% in April) is hardly noticed.
Now one month of food price inflation at 2.9% will not have the population dancing in the streets, but it is a move in a positive direction.
Couple food prices falling with the pound appreciating against the dollar ($1.55) and oil prices moderating ($100 - $105 for Brent Crude), then pressures on fuel and transport pricing are also being relieved. An overall picture is emerging for CPI moving down towards the BoE target of 2% faster than expected.
There is still a squeeze on living standards with wages rising less than inflation but the pressure is diminishing.
One major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is that food inflation has been running at around 4% per annum and 40% of all household purchases are in the food sector.
Well, I'd argue the one major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is there's no economic recovery.
Still, good news regardless. I expect the root cause is the price of oil dropping, which is slowly filtering through into other prices.
The fact that the 1979 Euros were held just a few weeks after the Tories had won the general election probably meant that Conservative voters were enthusiastic about voting and everyone else was demoralised. Might explain how the Tories won Liverpool.
We would also save a net 10 billion GBP per year in, ah, "protection money" to Brussels.
This £10 billion GBP is figure that euro-sceptics role out everytime there's a disucssion on the EU. The real figure has to take into account the positive benefits of trade with EU partners, access to a 500m market etc - this needs to be factored in. There is also the secondary impact of non-EU trade if the UK left the EU - probably very difficult to quantity but I'm guesssing it won't be positive.
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
O/t I'm on a Virgin train tomorrow, my favourite franchise, and this is why they should be allowed to retain their franchise.
Virgin Trains has sparked a "bra wars" row with female staff refusing to wear new "flimsy" blouses, which they say allow passengers to clearly see dark underwear.
The new uniform – due to launch this Wednesday – has upset female staff who say the red blouses fail to protect their modesty by being too "skimpy" and "revealing".
One major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is that food inflation has been running at around 4% per annum and 40% of all household purchases are in the food sector.
Well, I'd argue the one major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is there's no economic recovery.
Still, good news regardless. I expect the root cause is the price of oil dropping, which is slowly filtering through into other prices.
No, Oliver, it is not fuel prices. The BRC are ascribing the causes to increased promotional discounting by retailers to compete for flat consumer demand.
The Shop Prices Index compiled by the British Retail Consortium excludes energy and housing costs, which account for the main differences with the ONS's CPI measure.
Here is a summary of its scope and methodology from the BRC website:
The index is designed to reflect changes in shop prices nationally. The sampling points are distributed across five large urban centres across the UK. Sample stores are chosen to reflect local shopping habits and therefore include a representative number of town centres, superstores on out-of-town sites, town centre department stores and shopping centres. In each location, Nielsen collect and process the data on behalf of the BRC. Data collection is monthly and in the same stores to maintain like for like comparability.
The items for which prices are collected reflect standard consumer purchasing patterns in terms of branded/own label split and price distribution. The index includes five main sectors of purchase: food, hardware, furniture, electrical, clothing, and other goods. In total there are 500 items representing the five main sectors, with around 6,500-7,000 price points collected each period. Each product class category is weighted based on the “all households” expenditure measure in the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Family Expenditure Survey. The ONS Retail Price Index (RPI) is weighted using the same expenditure measures.
As for the existence of the economic recovery refer to the ONS GDP growth figures and multiple other corroborating economic metrics. The current annual rate of growth in the economy is probably around 1.2% -1.3% with leading indicators suggesting a slight increase in the rate of growth.
Consumer spending falls in April A 2.5% fall in consumer spending indicates that the pick-up recorded earlier in the year may be petering out, says a leading economist.
Tony gave up most of the rebate for meaningful reform of the CAP. Labour, selling out since year zero.
Blair wanted to be liked. So does Cameron. A failing in a politician, IMO.
Cameron should say that as the second biggest net contributor to the EU, Britain should have a far far bigger say in what goes on and that nothing should happen which is against Britain's interests, as Britain determines those interests. Forget the votes at meetings: the real stitch up happens beforehand. When Barroso or Rompuy talk about Britain as a whingeing island they should be forcibly reminded of who pays for the whole shebang - Germany and Britain.
Money talks and we give a lot of it to Brussels. So we should make it talk more and more effectively.
Tony gave up most of the rebate for meaningful reform of the CAP. Labour, selling out since year zero.
Blair wanted to be liked. So does Cameron. A failing in a politician, IMO.
Cameron should say that as the second biggest net contributor to the EU, Britain should have a far far bigger say in what goes on and that nothing should happen which is against Britain's interests, as Britain determines those interests. Forget the votes at meetings: the real stitch up happens beforehand. When Barroso or Rompuy talk about Britain as a whingeing island they should be forcibly reminded of who pays for the whole shebang - Germany and Britain.
Money talks and we give a lot of it to Brussels. So we should make it talk more and more effectively.
I always felt that Blair wanted to be admired rather than merely liked.
I'd expect UKIP to win the Euros, thanks to Labour tactical campaigning. Thecouncil elections are far more important to Labour than the Euros, so my expectation isthat Labour will campaign harder for the council seats, and encourage supporters to stick with them locally, even if they insist on protesting with UKIP in the EU elections. UKIP in totally the opposite position, so I see them walking the Euro elections.
The pressure will now be on UKIP towards the Euros, if they come third behind the Tories and Labour after second last time, not impossible, that will be a big blow to them
Consumer spending falls in April A 2.5% fall in consumer spending indicates that the pick-up recorded earlier in the year may be petering out, says a leading economist.
Yes, he has been on the hard stuff, poor fellow.
You are referring to the Visa UK Expenditure Index which was released today which did show a headline 2.5% fall in consumer spending in April when compared to March.
The same index however showed 3 months on preceding 3 months sales up by +1.1%, with Year on Year up by +0.5%. Annual increases for Face to Face Spending were -1.9%; for Online Spending +6.2%; and for Mail and Telephone Orders +8.8%.
You should note that the March Visa Index Headline annual rise was +1.2% but the ONS Retail Sales figures for March were -0.5% volume and +0.4% value (+1.3% excl. fuel).
In February the Visa Index Headline annual rise was 0.0% whereas the ONS Retail Sales figures for the same month were +2.6% (Volume & Value) and +3.3% excl. fuel.
So a discrepancy of an order of 2.5% in a single month between Visa and ONS has very recent precedent, both ways.
It is too early to say whether the Visa statistics will be followed by the ONS, but there is some indication that consumer sales may have fallen in April.
The BRC figures on Shop Price Inflation falling and their explanation that high street retailers have been discounting prices in response to "flat consumer demand" is consistent with at least flat sales.
Also the one confidence index that went unexpectedly negative in the past month was Gfk Index carried out of behalf of the EU which showed consumer confidence falling by one point from -28 to -27 in April.
Set against these two indicators is the news (from Lloyds Bank) that personal savings have fallen in the month and the fact that all other key economic indicators are rising.
So too early to say, MikeK. I suspect that we are talking MOE on statistics or phasing discrepancies here which will reverse out over longer measurement periods.
Either that or everyone has been buying a new car rather than spending their money in the high street during April!
Labour List says the South Shields CLP contact rate pre by-election was 0.2% That 0.2% was recorded just because they lived in another constituency before.....after the by-election campaign the contact rate is 20%
I'd expect UKIP to win the Euros, thanks to Labour tactical campaigning. Thecouncil elections are far more important to Labour than the Euros, so my expectation isthat Labour will campaign harder for the council seats, and encourage supporters to stick with them locally, even if they insist on protesting with UKIP in the EU elections. UKIP in totally the opposite position, so I see them walking the Euro elections.
Re: council elections, is there any sign of UKIP displacing the LDs as the alternative to Labour in northern England?
I don't know why some of these counties have to have so many divisions. There are 123 in Cornwall and 98 in Wiltshire. I'm sure there didn't used to be as many a few years ago.
I don't know why some of these counties have to have so many divisions. There are 123 in Cornwall and 98 in Wiltshire. I'm sure there didn't used to be as many a few years ago.
Because these are not county councils but unitary authorities and the councillors ( in theory ) have more work/responsibilities than county councillors .
Oh I was wondering where you had got to Mr. Brooke. I had visions of you enjoying the Warwickshire sun belatedly dancing around a May pole.
But you disappoint on arrival.
I was expecting a protestation that Boy George had no part in designing the Nissan Qashqai but was wholly responsible for the differential front end of the Peugeot 206.
It is not me that is spinning, Mr. Brooke. It is the wheels on the Osborne economy.
I'd expect UKIP to win the Euros, thanks to Labour tactical campaigning. Thecouncil elections are far more important to Labour than the Euros, so my expectation isthat Labour will campaign harder for the council seats, and encourage supporters to stick with them locally, even if they insist on protesting with UKIP in the EU elections. UKIP in totally the opposite position, so I see them walking the Euro elections.
Re: council elections, is there any sign of UKIP displacing the LDs as the alternative to Labour in northern England?
The LibDems aren't the alternative to Labour in northern England, the Conservatives are.
Perhaps you mean cities in northern England ?
UKIP would certainly have strong potential in the Con-Lab marginals as they are heavily lower middle and wwc in the medium sized towns and industrial sprawls.
But less in the cities as these have greater numbers of public sector middle classes, students, ethnic minorities and welfare addicted layabouts.
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
ar, you do know that over 85% of the cars manufactured in this country are exported don't you?
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
Richard it's like trying to explain fire to a goldfish.
Folks like Avery haven't the vaguest clue how the economy works. In the old days we'd have had someone from the DTI buttering up the car manufacturers to build more models in the UK and so get the benefits of growth. Instead we have the blokes who gave us RBS trying to tell us they know what they're doing.
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
ar, you do know that over 85% of the cars manufactured in this country are exported don't you?
Indeed, which is why getting excited about reduced car buying overseas might not be too constructive.
I haven't seen it mentioned today, but Chris Christie told the media earlier that he has had a gastric band operation to lose weight. It shouldn't matter, but let's be honest, his weight has prevented people seeing him as presidential.
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
ar, you do know that over 85% of the cars manufactured in this country are exported don't you?
Indeed, which is why getting excited about reduced car buying overseas might not be too constructive.
Nor has he twigged that Renault are in such a hole that they are seeking to build Nissans in France to fill capacity.
"No 10 aides said last week that Mr Cameron was even ready to introduce legislation on a referendum and see it defeated by Labour and the Lib Dems. But in a reply to Mr Baron dated April 30 – two days before his pre-election comments – Mr Cameron admitted that no such legislation is currently possible."
Number Ten is so full of Etonian chums now you could throw a dart and be guaranteed to hit one.
You are suffering from that original thought problem. How long has it taken you to think up saying the same thing you read earlier on the thread?
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
The reality is that the current criminal justice system provides scant deterrent unlike that which prevailed even up to the 1980's
What evidence is there that the CJS provided a strong deterrent up to the mid 1980s?
Comparing 'total crime' numbers over the decades is meaningless as old crimes like 'sacrilege' are dropped and new ones 'Health & Safety Offences' are created.
Take one crime over which there can be little ambiguity - 'Homicide' - we are at almost exactly the same position (low 600s) as we were in the mid-80s.
Yes and given that in 1980 the Homicide figure had doubled in 15 years (since the death penalty had been abandoned) it was as shocking then as it is now. Once again it proves the point that modern criminal justice is not as 'tough' as was once was provided. Furthermore you fail to mention that as I had pointed homicide peaked within the 2000 to 2006 period I specified. Not once have I tried to deny that crime has fallen since its peaks in the noughties. However, that doesn't mean that we have a tougher regime than a generation ago which was your original claim.
Just for information in the last 'generation' there were 18,646 murders, in the previous generation there were 11,785 and before that when the death penalty was in place 8,268. The death penalty would seem to have had a deterrent effect.
There are numerous reasons why crime should have been falling since the eighties (more surveillance, better car/home security etc etc). However it continued to rise until 2003/04 and today is still way above what it was in 1989..
Indeed you can use the equivalency argument or the argument that people increasingly report crime or the police increasingly record crime (perhaps at the Home Office behest). However none of these actually provide justification for your claim that the Criminal Justice system is tougher now than it was in past generations. In particular such arguments actually make any claims about the effectiveness of the Criminal Justice System moot because how do you know whether it is administrative changes, changes in public behaviour, improvements in the criminal justice system or technology that has caused a change in trends?
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
I got an email asking me to canvass earlier... Lawrence Webb the guy that won Gooshays is going to be organising it
More good news? Well let's have the good news first and the bad news second
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012. In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
Avery, you do know that over 80% of the cars purchased in this country are imported don't you ?
ar, you do know that over 85% of the cars manufactured in this country are exported don't you?
Indeed, which is why getting excited about reduced car buying overseas might not be too constructive.
No one, least of all I, is getting excited about the collapse of the Eurozone economies. It is bad news for all of us.
But you have picked the wrong sector to fight over.
UK exports of motor vehicles exceed imports both in volume and value. And the shortfalls in exports to the EU countries caused by declining demand have been more than made up by increases in exports to non-EU countries.
Yes, the news could get even better, It would be good for the UK to manufacture more cars for domestic sale, but the car industry is becoming increasingly global with models developed for multiple rather than single domestic markets.
Success however breeds success and the recent UK track record in car manufacturing is more likely to result in additional inbound investment and a broader range of models and makes manufactured here.
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
I got an email asking me to canvass earlier... Lawrence Webb the guy that won Gooshays is going to be organising it
Oh, very good. I'll be looking out for the result tomorrow night then.
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
I got an email asking me to canvass earlier... Lawrence Webb the guy that won Gooshays is going to be organising it
Oh, very good. I'll be looking out for the result tomorrow night then.
Think it's on Thursday.
If UKIP start winning in Barking that would be big progress... Very much a working class council house area, although so is Gooshays
Last year I mentioned that 15-year old driver Harry Woodhead might be worth watching. At the time he was racing in his first season in the Ginetta Juniors championship as one of the youngest drivers.
He won the winter series, and has so far won six out of six races in this year's championship.
He's still very early in his career, but he's one to watch. A very impressive young driver who will soon find himself at a crossroads in his career.
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
Mr. Jessop, better mindless luck than insightful failure when it comes to tips.
Any prospect of drifting onto an F1 career path?
I have to be careful about what I say about F1 as I have friends / associates who are both directly and indirectly employed by a couple of teams. Non-official leaks are taken somewhat seriously, which is strange given the incestuous nature of the sport and all the official leaks that occur to the media.
Also, the mood-music from the team's bases tend to be rather over-optimistic, especially at the start of the season. This infects many of the staff. More than once I've been told by people who should be in the know that a car is going to be the pick of the pack, only for the pre-season tests to show it fit only for the kennel.
What the contacts are good for are all the scurrilous rumours and stories that would get OGH sued very quickly indeed. Whether true or not, they are invariably funny or shocking, and add a great deal of background to the stories you read in the media.
The strange thing is I've lucked into the contacts and friendships - I met none of them through motorsport, and I'm not exactly one for meeting loads of people. I met one at a writing evening class near Southampton!
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
I got an email asking me to canvass earlier... Lawrence Webb the guy that won Gooshays is going to be organising it
Oh, very good. I'll be looking out for the result tomorrow night then.
Think it's on Thursday.
If UKIP start winning in Barking that would be big progress... Very much a working class council house area, although so is Gooshays
Comments
nope...
Going back to the previous thread I do think labour are being a little too complacent and just think that they are going to win as they are the opposition party and the government are not popular. Times have changed from the 90s and I think labour will need to up their game and come up with some coherent policies soon. 6 months ago I thought labour were shoe ins at the next GE. Their performance last Thursday both in the By- election and the county elections has made me change my view. I now have absolutely no idea who will win. If politics has shifted to the right and the tories somehow embrace this then this 1% chance of winning prediction will seem a little bit daft.
The ukip bloke was saying we would leave the EU and make all immigrants wherever they are from pass visa type controls
Robinson kept saying that was what we already had
Whilst smiling in an "I've got you but I'm pretending not to understand you' type of way
Smug and annoying lefty
No one played it mind you, says a lot
I had used the wrong spreadsheet
I've even got a wonderful chat up line to use on them as well.
The only option for the UK (and I think it is a reasonable one) would be to rejoin EFTA which has similar trading terms but not the automatic free movement of people. The UK was a founding member of EFTA in 1960 but left as a part of becoming a member of the EEC in 1973.
If you want to throw in the supposed benefits you mention then you should also throw in the huge detrimental effects of membership including the cost of all the laws and red tape we are forced to adopt. One good reason why businesses are becoming ever more eurosceptic.
And given the huge trade deficit we 'enjoy' with the EU I see no reason to believe your guesses about future trade with the EU either.
[Lawson said:] "Too much of British business and industry feels... secure in the warm embrace of the European single market and is failing to recognise that today's great export opportunities lie in the developing world, particularly in Asia."
In other words, he is not claiming that those who run our companies agree with him that exit from the EU is optimal for them or the economy.
As it happens, those who run our biggest companies would tend to be horrified at the idea of withdrawal from the EU.
Did you notice how he so deftly changed from Lawson's "much of British business and industry" to "those who run our biggest companies"?
There are almost five million companies in the UK, and they do not all have the same views as the FTSE 100. Peston is just part of the same set of Oxford PPE graduates that thinks his little bubble represents the opinion of people throughout the country. We need to do what's best for business overall, not a handful of big boys based in the West End.
He later tries to cover himself with this:
Of course smaller companies, including smaller City ones, are more patriotic in a conventional sense. But right now and in recent years they have been less important to British economic performance than the giant companies - although the government is desperate for smaller business to increase its relative output and influence.
Less important to British economic performance than the giant companies? I find that hard to believe. SMEs and large companieshave very similar levels of output (£1.53 trillion versus £1.60 trillion), but I hardly think a company of 250 employees, the division here, counts as "giant". If we use the next often used cut off barrier, 500 employees, it's almost certain those above that are a minority of UK output.
Which would still occur if the UK was outside Europe. It's not as if the mainland will raise their drawbridges and repel all trade coming across the channel.
Indeed, it has been argued that being in the EU has actually hindered UK trade with the rest of the world.
I'm not in favour of full withdrawal of the EU, and dislike the scare arguments on both sides. But I want a say. Let both sides present their positions, and let the public decide. I honestly don't know at the moment which way I'd vote - it would depend on the question and the situation at the time.
One thing is clear: no-one in the UK has voted for membership of the organisation we are currently in. The EU is a very different beast from the EEC voted for in 1975.
Let us have a say.
"What the Kipper Surgers need to explain is why the BNP + UKIP vote is stuck on 22%, the same as they got in the 2009 Euro elections."
distorting averages again
The Euro elections were across the whole country. The recent locals weren't.
This time it comes on an politically unfashionable but nonetheless vital metric: inflation.
The British Retail Consortium announced that "Shop Price Inflation" (SPI) fell in April to its lowest level for three and a half years.
The figure declined to 0.4% from 1.4% in March, with food inflation dropping to 2.9% from 3.5% month-on-month and non-food falling to deflationary territory, down 1.0% in April after a 0.2% rise the previous month.
One major reason why the economic recovery isn't being felt by consumers is that food inflation has been running at around 4% per annum and 40% of all household purchases are in the food sector. Couple this with above average rises in petrol, household energy supplies, public transportation and property rental costs and the absence of a 'feelgood factor' seems inconsistent with overall CPI running at around 2.7%. The fact that non-food goods, excluding those stated above, are deflating (-1.0% in April) is hardly noticed.
Now one month of food price inflation at 2.9% will not have the population dancing in the streets, but it is a move in a positive direction.
Couple food prices falling with the pound appreciating against the dollar ($1.55) and oil prices moderating ($100 - $105 for Brent Crude), then pressures on fuel and transport pricing are also being relieved. An overall picture is emerging for CPI moving down towards the BoE target of 2% faster than expected.
There is still a squeeze on living standards with wages rising less than inflation but the pressure is diminishing.
And that is good news for all of us.
Still, good news regardless. I expect the root cause is the price of oil dropping, which is slowly filtering through into other prices.
The fact that the 1979 Euros were held just a few weeks after the Tories had won the general election probably meant that Conservative voters were enthusiastic about voting and everyone else was demoralised. Might explain how the Tories won Liverpool.
http://t.co/4FH2Oryd8I
The political class colluded in covering up industrial scale child abuse and are still colluding in covering up the cover-up.
Why would any rational person believe a word they say about crime stats?
When was there any meaningful reforms to the CAP?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22440886
This time, car sales and registrations:
From the UK under Cameron and Osborne:
UK car retail sales jumped to their highest level since April 2008, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tuesday.
The organisation also predicted that 2013 sales will come in above previous expectations.
The SMMT said new car registrations rose to 163,357 in April, a rise of 14.8% compared to a year ago, although this was in part due to a higher number of sale days this year. The figure was driven in part by private registrations, which were up almost a third on April last year.
In the year-to-date car registrations rose 8.9% to 768,555, registrations over the past 12 months rose more than 150,000 units to 2.107m units.
From France under Hollande:
In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012.
In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis.
If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.
Boy George, Boy Racer
The Shop Prices Index compiled by the British Retail Consortium excludes energy and housing costs, which account for the main differences with the ONS's CPI measure.
Here is a summary of its scope and methodology from the BRC website:
The index is designed to reflect changes in shop prices nationally. The sampling points are distributed across five large urban centres across the UK. Sample stores are chosen to reflect local shopping habits and therefore include a representative number of town centres, superstores on out-of-town sites, town centre department stores and shopping centres. In each location, Nielsen collect and process the data on behalf of the BRC. Data collection is monthly and in the same stores to maintain like for like comparability.
The items for which prices are collected reflect standard consumer purchasing patterns in terms of branded/own label split and price distribution. The index includes five main sectors of purchase: food, hardware, furniture, electrical, clothing, and other goods. In total there are 500 items representing the five main sectors, with around 6,500-7,000 price points collected each period. Each product class category is weighted based on the “all households” expenditure measure in the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Family Expenditure Survey. The ONS Retail Price Index (RPI) is weighted using the same expenditure measures.
As for the existence of the economic recovery refer to the ONS GDP growth figures and multiple other corroborating economic metrics. The current annual rate of growth in the economy is probably around 1.2% -1.3% with leading indicators suggesting a slight increase in the rate of growth.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3457/ukip_neo_conservatism_and_douglas_murray
Wikipedia has a summary of votes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norfolk_County_Council_election,_2013#Summary_of_Results
Con 70,249
UKIP 50,568
Lab 49,028
LD 23,645
Green 14,119
Ind 7,519
Others 337
Total: 215,465
Percentages:
Con 32.60%
UKIP 23.47%
Lab 22.75%
LD 10.97%
Green 6.55%
Ind 3.49%
Others 0.16%
"Boy George, Boy Racer"
You been on the hard stuff again?
"Boy George, Boy Racer"
Consumer spending falls in April
A 2.5% fall in consumer spending indicates that the pick-up recorded earlier in the year may be petering out, says a leading economist.
Yes, he has been on the hard stuff, poor fellow.
Cameron should say that as the second biggest net contributor to the EU, Britain should have a far far bigger say in what goes on and that nothing should happen which is against Britain's interests, as Britain determines those interests. Forget the votes at meetings: the real stitch up happens beforehand. When Barroso or Rompuy talk about Britain as a whingeing island they should be forcibly reminded of who pays for the whole shebang - Germany and Britain.
Money talks and we give a lot of it to Brussels. So we should make it talk more and more effectively.
RIP Ray. Seemed like magic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9kmjW73-v4
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFpySDhGdGFDMjY5ZGZtcTdOSW16UWc#gid=0
http://youtu.be/Alld4Og2sTE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndBtbuPcd3I
The same index however showed 3 months on preceding 3 months sales up by +1.1%, with Year on Year up by +0.5%. Annual increases for Face to Face Spending were -1.9%; for Online Spending +6.2%; and for Mail and Telephone Orders +8.8%.
You should note that the March Visa Index Headline annual rise was +1.2% but the ONS Retail Sales figures for March were -0.5% volume and +0.4% value (+1.3% excl. fuel).
In February the Visa Index Headline annual rise was 0.0% whereas the ONS Retail Sales figures for the same month were +2.6% (Volume & Value) and +3.3% excl. fuel.
So a discrepancy of an order of 2.5% in a single month between Visa and ONS has very recent precedent, both ways.
It is too early to say whether the Visa statistics will be followed by the ONS, but there is some indication that consumer sales may have fallen in April.
The BRC figures on Shop Price Inflation falling and their explanation that high street retailers have been discounting prices in response to "flat consumer demand" is consistent with at least flat sales.
Also the one confidence index that went unexpectedly negative in the past month was Gfk Index carried out of behalf of the EU which showed consumer confidence falling by one point from -28 to -27 in April.
Set against these two indicators is the news (from Lloyds Bank) that personal savings have fallen in the month and the fact that all other key economic indicators are rising.
So too early to say, MikeK. I suspect that we are talking MOE on statistics or phasing discrepancies here which will reverse out over longer measurement periods.
Either that or everyone has been buying a new car rather than spending their money in the high street during April!
when on a merry go round stop spinning.
Usman Ali: Head of External Relations at BMHC (which could stand for British Muslim Heritage Centre). He's this guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCkcQZ3XOJE
Angela Rayner: trade unionist from Stockport http://www.angelarayner.com/
Andrew Simcock (Manchester Cllr) http://www.andrew4withington.com/
Jeff Smith (Manchester Cllr) http://www.jeffsmith.org.uk/
Josie Teubler http://josiespoliticalshoes.com/
Are divisions equivalent to wards? NI has 582 for just 1.8 million people!
But you disappoint on arrival.
I was expecting a protestation that Boy George had no part in designing the Nissan Qashqai but was wholly responsible for the differential front end of the Peugeot 206.
It is not me that is spinning, Mr. Brooke. It is the wheels on the Osborne economy.
Perhaps you mean cities in northern England ?
UKIP would certainly have strong potential in the Con-Lab marginals as they are heavily lower middle and wwc in the medium sized towns and industrial sprawls.
But less in the cities as these have greater numbers of public sector middle classes, students, ethnic minorities and welfare addicted layabouts.
"It is not me that is spinning, Mr. Brooke. It is the wheels on the Osborne economy."
You've outdone yourself there, Avery!
"Boy George, Boy Racer"
Never send a boy to do a man's job - traditional english saying.
Folks like Avery haven't the vaguest clue how the economy works. In the old days we'd have had someone from the DTI buttering up the car manufacturers to build more models in the UK and so get the benefits of growth. Instead we have the blokes who gave us RBS trying to tell us they know what they're doing.
GuidoFawkes Hain goes for Balls "Labour's Treasury team need to get out on the stump now and work even harder."
[Chaucer]
Usually, county council divisions are made up of about 3 or 4 wards, although sometimes they have the same boundaries, especially in more urban areas.
Con -10.51%
Lab +3.79%
UKIP +18.86%
LD -16.80%
Green +3.35%
Others +1.31%
Swing, Con to Lab: 7.15%
Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
Just for information in the last 'generation' there were 18,646 murders, in the previous generation there were 11,785 and before that when the death penalty was in place 8,268. The death penalty would seem to have had a deterrent effect.
There are numerous reasons why crime should have been falling since the eighties (more surveillance, better car/home security etc etc). However it continued to rise until 2003/04 and today is still way above what it was in 1989..
Indeed you can use the equivalency argument or the argument that people increasingly report crime or the police increasingly record crime (perhaps at the Home Office behest). However none of these actually provide justification for your claim that the Criminal Justice system is tougher now than it was in past generations. In particular such arguments actually make any claims about the effectiveness of the Criminal Justice System moot because how do you know whether it is administrative changes, changes in public behaviour, improvements in the criminal justice system or technology that has caused a change in trends?
No one, least of all I, is getting excited about the collapse of the Eurozone economies. It is bad news for all of us.
But you have picked the wrong sector to fight over.
UK exports of motor vehicles exceed imports both in volume and value. And the shortfalls in exports to the EU countries caused by declining demand have been more than made up by increases in exports to non-EU countries.
Yes, the news could get even better, It would be good for the UK to manufacture more cars for domestic sale, but the car industry is becoming increasingly global with models developed for multiple rather than single domestic markets.
Success however breeds success and the recent UK track record in car manufacturing is more likely to result in additional inbound investment and a broader range of models and makes manufactured here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10041502/Nigel-Lawson-calls-time-on-the-three-pint-Eurosceptic-heroes.html
After confirming that he will stand for a seat, the UKIP leader is likely to have his eye on Boston and Skegness.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015
If UKIP start winning in Barking that would be big progress... Very much a working class council house area, although so is Gooshays
Last year I mentioned that 15-year old driver Harry Woodhead might be worth watching. At the time he was racing in his first season in the Ginetta Juniors championship as one of the youngest drivers.
He won the winter series, and has so far won six out of six races in this year's championship.
He's still very early in his career, but he's one to watch. A very impressive young driver who will soon find himself at a crossroads in his career.
http://www.thecheckeredflag.co.uk/2013/05/woodhead-fights-back-to-make-it-six-in-a-row/
Either I'm lucky with my tips, or I know my motorsport. Probably the former. ;-)
Haha
Must have GSOH, no gay marriage, EU loving social democrats please
Sorry Ghost of Harry x
Any prospect of drifting onto an F1 career path?
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
When you get asked
"What do you most like in a woman"
Do not answer with
"My todger"
That's likely to get you banned from the dating agencies.
I learned that lesson the hard way.
Nick Clegg was MEP from 1999 until 2004, not 2005
Also, the mood-music from the team's bases tend to be rather over-optimistic, especially at the start of the season. This infects many of the staff. More than once I've been told by people who should be in the know that a car is going to be the pick of the pack, only for the pre-season tests to show it fit only for the kennel.
What the contacts are good for are all the scurrilous rumours and stories that would get OGH sued very quickly indeed. Whether true or not, they are invariably funny or shocking, and add a great deal of background to the stories you read in the media.
The strange thing is I've lucked into the contacts and friendships - I met none of them through motorsport, and I'm not exactly one for meeting loads of people. I met one at a writing evening class near Southampton!
"Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"
"Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."
That's not to say it's not currently coming down off its peak but that its peak would be 5 times as high without medical advances.
Abba fans take a chance on Sweden's newest museum – and declare it a hit
Stockholm's latest tourist attraction has pulled off the trick of appealing to both families and diehard devotees of the band
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/may/07/abba-museum-opens-stockholm-review
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: A majority of Brits - 53% - now believe David Cameron will fail to win back major powers from the EU.
...just 20% - 1 in 5 - say the PM's Brussels renegotiation will succeed
...in a referendum tmrw, 46% would vote to leave the EU - up from 43% two weeks ago. Just 35% now say they would vote to stay in.