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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip move into the favourite slot to win most votes at next
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip move into the favourite slot to win most votes at next year’s Euro elections
The multi-member party list electoral system used in the European elections is ideally suited to Ukip where it’s party brands that matter over the individuals who get elected.
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http://order-order.com/2013/05/07/compare-and-contrast-bbc-v-public-newspaper-consumption/
"Areas with a popular local pub are more likely to vote UKIP"
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/how-should-labour-tackle-ukip/
@Carlotta Vance
criminal justice is tougher than a generation ago
You are joking surely?
The last 20 years has been a disaster for Criminal Justice. In the last 20 years we have had the worst crime figures of all time (violence at its peak in the mid noughties had quadrupled since 1990 and all crime increased by 50%) and the prison population doubled (when it took more than 40 years to double previously). Much of that was down to the soft sentencing policy of the John Major Conservatives (the 1991 CJA) who increased remission as a right from a third to half of a prisoners sentence ushering in the revolving door sentencing that allows crooks like Chris Huhne to be released having served just a few weeks.
Prison Stats
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn04334.pdf
Crime Stats
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110218135832/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/recordedcrime1.html
The reality is that the current criminal justice system provides scant deterrent unlike that which prevailed even up to the 1980's and whilst Government huff and puff over criminal justice none are willing to implement the necessary tough measures to really get crime down quickly. Now whilst all crime (not violent crime though) has fallen back to 1990 levels that is still more than double what it was in 1970 after the previous significant series of prison sentencing reforms (the 1967 CJA).
The purpose of criminal justice should be to reduce crime and thus minimise the number of people who need to be incarcerated. Sadly over the last generation it has done the opposite.
You asserted that Parliament can't just declare that a law doesn't apply. I am afraid that it is you who are talking utter garbage. Parliament enacts a 3 clause Bill as follows.
Clause 1 adds the treaty in question to list in section 2 of the European Communities Act 1972.
Clause 2 provides: 'It is hereby declared that the provisions of the European Union Act 2011 do not apply to the ratification of [the treaty] added to [the list] by section 1 of this Act, and that it shall be lawful for Her Majesty's Government to ratify [the treaty] forthwith.'
Clause 3 deals with short title etc.
The European Union Act 2011 still has effect, and the treaty is ratified without a referendum.
@Grandioise is closer to the mark on this, but I don't think the Labour Party, who opposed the 2011 Act, have ever given a commitment that they will be bound by its provisions. That is not the case in relation to the Human Rights Act 1998, which all governments have accepted. It is that fact which makes it politically difficult to pass and enforce incompatible legislation.
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/british-politics-is-entering-a-dangerous-phase-and-labour-should-have-nothing-to-do-with-it/
This one's full of the usual Labour head-in-the-sand thinking. Take this point:
Moreover, the UK benefits enormously from its reputation as a tolerant, diverse and vibrant nation. London, in particular, has a global image as a peaceful and exciting melting pot that many cities around the world, desperate to attract overseas investment, envy.
I think the author doesn't travel much. Perceptions of London's tolerant melting point changed quite dramatically with the London riots.
http://t.co/4FH2Oryd8I
"Crime in England and Wales fell sharply last year with an 8% drop recorded on police figures and a 5% reduction according to the official crime survey, the Office for National Statistics has said.
Statisticians say the crime rate has halved since it peaked in 1995 and appears to be at its lowest level for more than 30 years."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/25/uk-crime-falls-official-figures
Do you not see that there might be a contradiction between a large rise in the prison population and sentencing becoming supposedly much more lenient? What you have failed to discuss is the enormous increase in both the number and length of indeterminate sentences, including the madness that prevailed until 2008 when imprisonment for public protection was introduced by CJA 2003.
That doesn't go against smithers' point, which was that the last twenty years has seen very high crime rates. That's completely true. While it's welcome that crime is heading down, we're still way above 20th Century averages.
One of the things I am wary of is that previously UKIP have polled 2.5 million votes in Euro elections and even though they have performed well in recent by elections and in the County council elections it is not necessarily true that they have gone beyond that pool of UKIP Euro voters (UKIPs vote share in polls is either around the Euro mark or below it) attracting large volumes of voters who have never voted for them previously. The people who are now voting UKIP in domestic elections could have been voting UKIP in the Euros for the last 9 years. That said its equally possible that UKIP could well breakthrough that 2.5 million threshold quite significantly (they will likely have to if they are to put their mark on the 2015 general election)
My view is that nothing really has changed and chances are Labour will top the poll with UKIP and the Tories fighting it out for second. Now if UKIP polls shares regularly start creeping up to 20% or beyond then we'll be in a different ball game but until then I think UKIP is still in line for 2nd or 3rd. Of course if UKIP do win then things will definitely get interesting!
Euro regions in 2009
East Midlands (5 seats)
2009 Con 30.2 Lab 16.9 UKIP 16.4 LD 12.3 BNP 8.7 Green 6.8
Seats Con 2 Lab 1 UKIP 1 LD 1
East (7)
Con 31.2 UKIP 19.6 LD 13.8 Lab 10.5 Green 8.8 BNP 6.1
Sears Con 3 UKIP 2 LD 1 Lab 1
London (8)
Con 27.4 Lab 21.3 LD 13.7 Green 10.9 UKIP 10.8 BNP 4.9
Seats Con 3 Lab 2 LD 1 Green 1 UKIP 1
North East (3)
Lab 25 Con 19.8 LD 17.6 UKIP 15.4
Lab 1 Con 1 LD 1
North West (8)
Con 25.6 Lab 20.4 UKIP 15.8 LD 14.3 BNP 8 Green 7.7
Con 3 Lab 2 UKIP 1 LD 1 BNP 1
South East (10)
Con 34.8 UKIP 18.8 LD 14.1 Green 11.6 Lab 8,2 BNP 4.4
Con 4 UKIP 2 LD 2 Green 1 Lab 1
South West (6)
Con 30.2 UKIP 22.1 LD 17.2 Green 9.3 Lab 7.7 BNP 3.9
Con 3 UKIP 2 LD 1
West Midlands (now 7)
Con 28.1 UKIP 21.3 Lab 17 LD 12 BNP 8.6 Green 6.2
Con 3 UKIP 2 Lab 1 LD 1
Yorkshire (6)
Con 24.5 Lab 18.8 UKIP 17.4 LD 13.2 BNP 9.8 Green 8.5
Con 2 Lab 1 UKIP 1 LD 1 BNP 1
Wales
Con 21.2 Lab 20.3 Plaid 18.5 UKIP 12,8 LD 10.7 Green 5.6 BNP 5.4
Con 1 Lab 1 Plaid 1 UKIP 1
Scotland (6)
SNP 29.1 Lab 20.8 Con 16.8 LD 11.5 Green 7.3 UKIP 5.2
SNP 2 Lab 2 Con 1 LD 1
F1: early discussion for Spain is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/spain-early-discussion.html
Furthermore that doesn't change my point. You said the criminal justice regime was tougher now than it was a generation ago (so pre 1990) That I am afraid is nonsense.........
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22397528
Particularly drawn to the low number of (non-artificial) overtakes. If tyre degradation is high then we'll probably see a lot. If they're more durable we probably won't.
Pirelli have a brief to make 2-3 stops per race the standard, and they've done that so far this season.
This burying of heads in sand is becoming a phenomenom of the other parties and supporters. Perhaps that the best they can do: hoping the horrible nightmare will simply pass, is the only action that makes sense to them.
UKIP disappear? I think not.
As OGH regularly points out very few of the great British public care about the EU at all. Of those that do the vast majority seem to be sceptics of varying degrees of virulence. This is one of the reasons the Lib Dems get totally humiliated in these elections. There is no body of support that (a) cares enough to vote and (b) is pro EU.
I think this means that UKIP will do disproportionately well. My only reservation is whether enough Labour supporters, dragged out for the locals, will bother to vote in this election as well since they are there. Given that factor he is probably right about where the value is.
One thing we have to remember about Thursdays elections is that they were held in Toryshire, not Labourborough. The areas not voting were the big metro areas, Scotland, Wales, NI and London. Even accepting that UKIP can and do poll well in some Labour areas (see S Shields etc), taking a national projection from such a lopsided - if large - sample runs the risk of itself being distorted.
In particular, we can be reasonably confident that UKIP won't do well in Scotland but Labour will. Similarly, UKIP will probably underperform the national picture in London.
On the other hand, the Labour areas have lower turnouts, so although that matters in council and parliamentary elections, it works against them at Euroconstituency and national levels.
One question worth asking - will UKIP stand in Northern Ireland? It may just be a token candidature but were I Farage, I'd be doing everything possible to establish UKIP as as close to a genuinely national party as possible with a view to the leaders' debates come 2015. On the other hand, are any of the NI parties anti-EU? If not, there may be a vein to mine there as well.
I'd have thought the choice for many might be vote UKIP or not bother to vote at all.
Looks like the Tories could lose their seat in Wales...
One big upside is that it would allow the reintroduction of the purchase tax, which was eliminated in the UK after joining the EEC and replaced with the unfair VAT. The government could introduce high tax rates (50% or even 100%) on extravagant "status" items like luxury cars and high-end wine.
And the rest of us are wondering why none of our elected politicians are listening to us.
Still, at least the weather's better - for now.
That said I expect UKIP to have more MEP's than last time and pick up MEPs mainly from the Conservatives in the areas they are strongest in. In MEP terms they could return the largest number. However because of the improvement of Labours fortunes UKIP will have to match them in increased vote as well and I'm not convinced they will. Is that all right by you?
Have you ever thought what will happen if UKIP do not live up to media expectations in the next few years? Have you ever thought that the other parties might ramp up those expectations in order to give the impression of UKIP failing? Yes UKIP can win the Euros but it is nowhere near as cut and dried as the knee-jerk reactionaries in the Westminster Freakshow seem to think it is.
And with that I have to go
Comparing 'total crime' numbers over the decades is meaningless as old crimes like 'sacrilege' are dropped and new ones 'Health & Safety Offences' are created.
Take one crime over which there can be little ambiguity - 'Homicide' - we are at almost exactly the same position (low 600s) as we were in the mid-80s.
My first observation is that the odds on the 'Win Most Votes' market are wildly out of kilter with Ladbrokes' market on the vote-share match Con vs UKIP (5/4 and 4/7 respectively). Adjusting for the overround, that implies something like a 59% probability of UKIP beating the Tories. Doing a similar adjustment to the best odds on first place, the implied probabilities are 52% for UKIP to top the poll, 38% for Labour, and 8.6% for the Conservatives. It surely cannot be true both that the Tories have a 41% chance of coming out ahead of UKIP, and that they are six times less likely to win overall than UKIP.
I therefore conclude that at least one of these markets is wrongly priced - and I think it's the first-place market. The Tories topped the poll in 2009, 2004 and 1999. They have never fallen below 26.7%, and even in 1994 they got 28%. In fact, their vote share has been remarkably consistent in the 26% to 28% range except in 1999 when they got 35.8%.
UKIP got 16.1% in 2004 and 16.5% in 2009. That was a long way behind the Conservatives' 27.7%. Labour's 2009 performance was a derisory 15.7%: clearly they will do a great deal better next time, but it's worth remembering that they haven't done well in any of the last three European elections.
Of course, on last week's results UKIP have the momentum, and they might well win the whole thing. So might Labour, who as antifrank points out are still in the lead nationally. But we are talking about an election a whole year away - who knows how sentiment will shift between now and then? I'd say Labour should be favourites, with UKIP not far behind them, but that the Conservatives have a much better than one in ten chance of beating both of them - we could easily see all three parties in the 20% to 25% range.
I've therefore availed myself of the speculative 10/1.
http://order-order.com/2013/05/07/labour-told-activists-lancashire-was-in-the-bag/
Lancashire :
" Labour activists on the ground were told that they could wrap up Get Out The Vote activity two hours before the polls closed because apparently “it was in the bag” ".
Loving the complacency - carry on !
When I pointed this out as probable typo, people on here went to great lengths to argue that it was possible for a 10/1 shot to be fav in a match vs a 2/1 shot
It was a typo
Shows that some people will argue about anything just for the sake of it
The last time Labour won the Euro elections.
For some reason Labour supporters aren't enthused by these elections.
Both Hague and Howard beat Blair in these elections.
Con 28%
UKIP 17%
Lab 16%
LD 14%
GRN 8%
BNP 6%
If the LDs and BNP lose about 8% between them, say -5% and -3% respectively, and the Greens and others stand still, then the winning post for the big 3 is around 23%.
I can't see the Tories losing less than 5% of vote share...
I wonder how many murders went unreported in Edwardian England's smoggy streets...
UKIP 32%
Lab 26%
Con 19%
LD 8%
Green 8%
BNP 3%
I was being conservative. If what you say is true the Big 3 winning post rises, and the Tories have to do even better to clear it.
It could be fairly tight though, with the Big 3 all in the low 20%s..
Presumably the UKIPers who read and comment on the Telegraph these days like this kind of thing?
Tax policy shouldn't be about solely "maximising Treasury income", either, which is why we have a personal allowance. A Lambo and Bolly tax can be used to remove VAT from utilities and reducing the burden on the poorest.
For your valuable spreadsheet, for Norfolk, you can cut and paste the whole page into excel and then select just a party from the column and add the whole figures, and so on for the rest.
http://elections.norfolk.gov.uk/textresults.aspx
It should help making it faster.
Better a small slice of a big cake than the entirety of nothing.
We had a tasting of Eastern Med wines last weekend - and the star was a Syrah from a rather surprising country:
http://www.israelwinecompany.com/index.php?option=com_wine&id=62
Nick Clegg reports his three million jobs lie and not a hint of a challenge from Red Nick Robinson. What a surprise.
UKIP nearly double their vote? Now, that would be an earthquake...
I'd be surprise if any party gets much above 25%.
Also, don't forget the 12% Others including the SNP/PC. They seem to have taken a pasting in your figures.
Thanks for the Norfolk tip. I'll have to check whether any of the other remaining counties have pages where the data can be copied like this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22431177
"I knew something was wrong when a pretty little white girl ran into a black man's arms":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22438417
Local elections have always been UKIP's weakest type of election, the Euro elections their strongest.
In a world where Barbra Streisand can command ticket prices of £500 for concerts, why shouldn't HMG get a bigger share of that than at present? Some concerts might be affected, but I strongly suspect that the main losers would be the pampered artists. Indeed, HMG might strike a blow for consumers by operating a tiered approach, with low VAT on low ticket prices and high VAT on high ticket prices, to encourage new artists and those artists that do not rip off their fans. It could be an example of a popular tax if the effect was to drive down ticket prices.
None of this applies to champagne or luxury cars. Though I would enjoy seeing the German reaction to a high tax on high end cars after their shameless assault on the City.
Right-wingers seem to forget that it's the EU that entrenches right-wing ideas like free trade and fixed VAT rates.
I ran the 2011 figures from http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/feb/24/uk-trade-exports-imports
They give figures for the top 25 export locations, representing 85% of exports.
I make EU £120bn and non-EU £85bn.
I am sure most of that 15% remainder is non-EU, which narrows the gap considerably.
I imagine the 2012 figures are similar.
Good point. It probably entrenches a few other things that some moaning Brits have become used to and like.
Or UKIP to poll over 18% at the same price?
Wieghed in weighed in
What a ricket that was
In the days when Liverpool was the jewel in the Tory crown they built a magnificent Conservative Club right in the heart of the business and political district...
http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/2888123
It has just been converted into a Hilton hotel. I'm sure Maggie would have approved...
http://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Venues/DoubleTree-by-Hilton-hotel-brand-to-expand-to-Liverpool-in-summer-2013
I hope he does well out of what he did. It's hardly heroism, but I guess it's all too easy to ignore cries for help. Little acts of kindness (such as investigating cries for help) can reap big rewards. But it's all too easy to ignore the cries and not get involved.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/05/07/nigel-farages-independence-day/
Virgin Trains has sparked a "bra wars" row with female staff refusing to wear new "flimsy" blouses, which they say allow passengers to clearly see dark underwear.
The new uniform – due to launch this Wednesday – has upset female staff who say the red blouses fail to protect their modesty by being too "skimpy" and "revealing".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10040922/Bra-wars-Virgin-female-staff-in-row-over-new-skimpy-blouses-that-reveal-dark-underwear.html