...just 20% - 1 in 5 - say the PM's Brussels renegotiation will succeed
Well let's face it, the whole point of the hardcore europhiles is that they believe it benefits countries (even if at the loss of national sovereignty), which means they think it benefits the UK to be in the EU more than the reverse, in which case it naturally follows that the bureacracy will see the UK leaving as more harmful to the UK than the EU. Add to that the competing national interests, and I'm surprised 20% think it will succeed.
I think it'd be good if Cameron could, but he won't, and that's not even a slur on his ability, just the difficulty of the task.
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
Paul Wiffen @wiffen Welcome @JSeymourUKIP Going for broke tomorrow canvassing in #Barking #Longbridge by-election. Labour already admitting #UKIP have won it!
Can this be true? Anyone know about this by-election?
I got an email asking me to canvass earlier... Lawrence Webb the guy that won Gooshays is going to be organising it
Oh, very good. I'll be looking out for the result tomorrow night then.
Think it's on Thursday.
If UKIP start winning in Barking that would be big progress... Very much a working class council house area, although so is Gooshays
Thought it was time to pour some petrol on a good fire.
My observation of last Thursday's results was that UKIP failed to make an impact against established Independents or even against other candidates outside the three main parties. In Surrey, for example, an Independent won in Haslemere, a Green won in Redhill and the various Residents Association candidates in Elmbridge and Epsom had much more trouble from the Tories than from UKIP. In Cornwall, UKIP's impact in a supposedly arch-sceptic area was limited while Independent candidates generally did well
Turnout was low - the Tories prospered in 1998 and 1999 for all the good it did them nationally. What we saw was an anti-established politics vote (motivated) but the beneficiaries were not only UKIP but Independent and other party candidates too. A significant portion of those who will vote in May 2015 didn't vote in May 2013 and those who claim certainty for their General Election predictions on the basis of what happened last Thursday are as naive as those Alliance activists who looked at the 1986 local results as a precursor of the end of Thatcherism.
The advantage UKIP will have in 2015 is that they will be a national presence standing (presumably) in all constituencies ostensibly competing on equal terms with the other parties. The probem is we no longer have a single national political party - all the parties have stronger areas and weaker areas and the campaigning will reflect that. UKIP will, if they've got any sense, pick their battles carefully because 5% and five seats is infinitely better than 15% and no seats. In some areas, they will square off against the Conservatives, in some against Labour, in many others they will be invisible.
The reality of political campaigning is concentrating or targetting resources where they can produce maximum benefit. UKIP will have to play that game or finish up as the SDP did spending money where it achieves nothing. As OGH would never say, it's all about bums on benches. In a national referendum on for example In/Out EU membership, the game is very different and may work well for UKIP but last Thursday illustrated the strengths and weaknesses of all parties as well as how politics operates in a multi-party multi-layered environment.
At least that's another politician we can add to the likes of Steve Baker for Wycombe, Douglas Carswell from Clacton, Ron Paul and goodness knows who else who shows an understanding of the pernicious modern financial system.
Just asked a friend of mine with good contacts at the Manure. They're keeping very tight lipped. We've been here a few times before. Trying to scupper the whole Mourinho Chelsea arrangement?
Just asked a friend of mine with good contacts at the Manure. They're keeping very tight lipped. We've been here a few times before. Trying to scupper the whole Mourinho Chelsea arrangement?
And Lawson fails to reveal his anti climate change funding, so?
WTF has that got to do with Europe? Nothing.
Sean, after all these years you should know better than to get dragged into Tim's fantasy smear world. To use an age old saying he will simply drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.
Does anyone have TimT's email-address (obviously not to post-it publically). I only ask because - strangely - he may be able to post a decent threader at The Boss's* place.
Does anyone have TimT's email-address (obviously not to post-it publically). I only ask because - strangely - he may be able to post a decent threader at The Boss's* place.
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
"Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"
"Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."
That's not to say it's not currently coming down off its peak but that its peak would be 5 times as high without medical advances.
Crimes of violence are the same as 1980, as indicated by the EWCS/BCS. Halved since 1995 (i.e. doubled 1980 - 95).
Robbery down 40% since its peak a decade ago.
Firearms offences halved (recorded since a decade ago).
Burglary at 1981 levels.
Sexual offences only down 10%, though - could be better reporting.
At the end of the day the average person isn't going to know the truth so it boils down to whether they believe the political class or not.
So it makes more sense to point to things which relate to whether the political class can be trusted to tell the truth on this.
For example
1) The political class colluded in covering up industrial scale child abuse and are currently still colluding in covering up the cover-up. On the one hand how many crimes would be on their stats if they hadn't and on the other if they're prepared to lie about that why wouldn't they lie about other things that spoil their narrative?
1000s of gang rapes committed by a gang-culture the political class deny exists. How many of those crimes are on their stats? If they're prepared to lie about that why should anyone trust their stats?
3) The bmj article i linked just now. Using the homicide rate as a marker although seemingly clear cut is bogus because of medical advances.
4) If the crime rate goes down because of higher rates of incarceration is it honest to claim the crime rate has gone down exactly? Simply saying it's gone down implies fewer criminals whereas if it's gone down because of increased prison numbers the number of criminals can be the same or higher.
5) The dramatic decline in the crime stats coincided with the political class opening the borders and importing very large numbers of young men. Even if their crime rate was 1% of the native population you'd expect crime to go up. Given it's in the interests of the political class' narrative i don't understand how anyone could possibly believe that crime went down at that point (apart of course due to increasing prison places).
So crime carried on going up the same as it had since the 50s and only went down again because of the huge increase in prison places - that's plausible.
Hintze is a hedge fund billionaire campaigning against European hedge fund regulation, he funds Lawson. Sauce for the goose
He's also one of the kindest, most generous people I know. We could do with more people like Michael in this world.
(And his kid is terrifying bright - met him at an exhibition a couple of years back & he was one of the most collected, most impressive 18 year olds I've come across).
Well her first name alone disqualifies her, but she's another SPAD/Westminster insider, I so loathe in British politics these days
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP Press officer for London Labour Party Researcher at Philip Gould Associates Researcher for the Greater London Authority Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Well her first name alone disqualifies her, but she's another SPAD/Westminster insider, I so loathe in British politics these days
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP Press officer for London Labour Party Researcher at Philip Gould Associates Researcher for the Greater London Authority Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report.
I thought "I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level" was your bio and I was getting alarmed!
a poll today which shows a majority of voters want either a completely new relationship with the EU or to leave altogether. Forty two per cent of voters said that they wanted a relationship based on free trade and little else while 21 per cent called for British withdrawal, according to the YouGov poll for The Times.
I thought "I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level" was your bio and I was getting alarmed!
If I had been working for the Labour party for the last decade, that would explain why Labour polled worse in the 2010 election than Michael Foot did in 1983.
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Which manager has taken his team to Wembley twice this season ?
Martin Day, if you're still reading, I've found the perfect job for you.
The Liberal Democrats are looking for a temporary graphic designer to provide creative, high impact graphic design, bringing a fresh style and vibrancy across the full range of Liberal Democrat communication channels. Particularly focused on national campaign artwork and internal/corporate communications materials.
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Which manager has taken his team to Wembley twice this season ?
Bradford's manager?
That's nothing, King Kenny took us to Wembley, three times last season.
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Now, now, our chairman is a mere multi millionaire ( I guess ) not a squillionaire. Moyes per £ spent has been a sustained genius.
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Now, now, our chairman is a mere multi millionaire ( I guess ) not a squillionaire. Moyes per £ spent has been a sustained genius.
I know, Moyes has done a good job under trying circumstances.
I mean, I know Everton can't go out and spend 20 million pounds on the Mackem Messi that is Jordan Henderson in the way Liverpool can.
Martin Day, if you're still reading, I've found the perfect job for you.
The Liberal Democrats are looking for a temporary graphic designer to provide creative, high impact graphic design, bringing a fresh style and vibrancy across the full range of Liberal Democrat communication channels. Particularly focused on national campaign artwork and internal/corporate communications materials.
No disrespect to Moyes but I find it amazing that he gets such praise. Contrast his record with Wenger... Everton spend decent dough, and never qualify for the Champs League or win anything. Wenger gets champs league football every year and makes a profit, plus built a new stadium and gets stick for it. New age Arsenal fans haven't got a scooby
Even Dalglish, in our worst season in 20 years, still won more trophies in 16 months than Moyes has in 11 years.
Which manager has taken his team to Wembley twice this season ?
Bradford's manager?
That's nothing, King Kenny took us to Wembley, three times last season.
Yes,also remember mr eagles,bradford div 2 team getting to a major cup final,expected of Liverpool ;-)
Well her first name alone disqualifies her, but she's another SPAD/Westminster insider, I so loathe in British politics these days
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP Press officer for London Labour Party Researcher at Philip Gould Associates Researcher for the Greater London Authority Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report.
This really is a burning issue. In the last week or so I've heard several people - from all sides of the political spectrum - spitting venom and bile about the Rise of the Wonk: i.e. the way we are governed by an effete, wealthy, geeky, Oxbridge-educated elite, whether Primrose Hill Marxist or Old Etonian ponceybootist, who know nothing about real life.
The lefties have been as virulently angry as the rightwingers. Meanwhile the Labour party promotes more SPADs and Cameron promotes more Etonians.
It's like the big parties WANT Farage and UKIP to take over.
Politics is very clique. I fear that these days neither Thatcher nor Blair would get selected, let alone rise to the top.
http://www.tulipsiddiq.com/about/ ..........Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report............
If you want to get rid of the wonks in politics, take the excess of money out of politics and in particular the political parties.
I don't care if MPs are paid 100k + pa, and the PM is paid 250k+ pa, it is the money swilling around the (bankrupt) party system. To get rid of the wonks put an upper limit on party spending. Get rid of the need for big backers who buy influence with spending limits. Get rid of the unwelcome invasion of the party into areas where it is unwelcome. Get rid of the overbearing hectoring party system and allow members to to represent the interests of the community they are elected by.
Well her first name alone disqualifies her, but she's another SPAD/Westminster insider, I so loathe in British politics these days
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP Press officer for London Labour Party Researcher at Philip Gould Associates Researcher for the Greater London Authority Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report.
It's like the big parties WANT Farage and UKIP to take over.
Oddly, I think the problem is that for senior politicians who are as perfectly polished in presentation as decades in politics can manage, the leaders on both stratas don't seem to realize that their presentation is what is the problem. Although it would not be a huge problem were it not for something else
It makes them all look and sound the same, and terrifyingly bland, and while I am a big believer in the fact they have become so bland by design because it works - that people have wanted safe, bland leaders - the less polished, riskier Farage type presentation only seems to get mainstream appeal when most people don't think that all the other lot are pretty shit.
Their blandness is almost comforting if people had any confidence they weren't equally crap, but since they are perceived that way, the risky actual personality - gods forbid - of Farage and the occasional character in their own ranks, holds no fears, but the leaders don't seem to realize that, because the bland thing has worked until now.
The effect is not enough to prevent them from holding on to their positions, but it prevents any turnaround from viewing our political classes with contempt.
As mad as they can sometimes be, I find local councillors to be much more relatable and trustworthy, even the lower quality ones. If some oxbridge party hack tells me once more they know what it's like for the public and what is best for them in a tone like they're reading an autocue that magically appears on the faces of whoever they are talking to, I may scream.
They do themselves a disservice with their incautious, frightened-of-the-public presentations, because they may well understand the issues and have positive solutions, but they appear so disconnected.
Martin Day, if you're still reading, I've found the perfect job for you.
The Liberal Democrats are looking for a temporary graphic designer to provide creative, high impact graphic design, bringing a fresh style and vibrancy across the full range of Liberal Democrat communication channels. Particularly focused on national campaign artwork and internal/corporate communications materials.
"YouGov/Sun poll tonight: UKIP post highest ever support of 16% - almost double the Libs. "
That'll be the banging on about Europe master strategy from the incompetent fops continuing to be a completely unexpected triumph. Not to mention proof positive of Clegg being "back in the saddle".
@tim do you have anything more convincing than the really weak Guardian story from early last year on the Hintze - Lawson connection? They reported a redacted email from an australian warmist group begging Hintze for money, and his redacted rejection letter saying "Furthermore we are supporting Nigel Lawson's initiative".
I expect that probably is the best you've got? How much does he pay to Lawson? Do you know the Guardian weren't scammed? Or, worse, complicit in a scam?
Whereas, we know for a fact that Kellner's wife earns a truck load of money from the EU, if we stay in she'll continue to be paid her substantial pension for the rest of her life, and Kellner will get that same pension for the rest of his if he outlives her.
And Kellner writes his biased piece in the Guardian as president of YouGov, an impartial polling organisation. Not as someone with a lot to lose financially if we leave.
You've had so much practice, I thought you'd be better at smearing by now.
@TheScreamingEagles ,did you the Yorkshire score today,with our 2 best batters pulled for England lions,the team still responded.(well balance and Rashid)
Bloody hell,we could have a all Yorkshire batting line up for England ;-)
The homicide rate is the same as 1978. The falls in other crimes are behind, but, if present trends continue they should be back to that point by the end of this decade.
"Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"
"Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."
That's not to say it's not currently coming down off its peak but that its peak would be 5 times as high without medical advances.
Crimes of violence are the same as 1980, as indicated by the EWCS/BCS. Halved since 1995 (i.e. doubled 1980 - 95).
Robbery down 40% since its peak a decade ago.
Firearms offences halved (recorded since a decade ago).
Burglary at 1981 levels.
Sexual offences only down 10%, though - could be better reporting.
[Sigh]
God not the BCS. Have you ever done it? I have. Its a fatuous joke. Asking people to remember the crimes they are aware of months after they occuured is possibly the most haphazard way to assess crime there is.
@TheScreamingEagles ,did you the Yorkshire score today,with our 2 best batters pulled for England lions,the team still responded.(well balance and Rashid)
Bloody hell,we could have a all Yorkshire batting line up for England ;-)
Being a Lancashire member these days, I've not been following Yorkshire that intensely this year, I did see Joe Root proving he's Don Bradman's successor
Martin Day, if you're still reading, I've found the perfect job for you.
The Liberal Democrats are looking for a temporary graphic designer to provide creative, high impact graphic design, bringing a fresh style and vibrancy across the full range of Liberal Democrat communication channels. Particularly focused on national campaign artwork and internal/corporate communications materials.
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Socrates will love it.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
Cameron said that UKIP supporters should be respected, but then a Downing Street source was quoted as referring to them as "life's losers." Which reflects Cameron's view most accurately, I wonder?
It makes them all look and sound the same, and terrifyingly bland, and while I am a big believer in the fact they have become so bland by design because it works
Little Ed, Clegg and Cammie are almost carbon copies because they all wanted to be Blair and their parties all wanted another Blair. Their problem is that the public had moved on long ago and Blair's polished acting ceased to be a positive but increasingly a negative.
Clegg is far more accomplished at the Blair school of naturalistic polished speaking than Cammie will ever be but it simply doesn't matter because Clegg is toxic and that will not change.
Farage, for all the undoubted anti-politics appeal he naturally exudes, is also not the same Farage as 2010 and has improved markedly. Gone are the times when Farage would turn every single issue into an anti-Europe rant and he is far more comfortable speaking on other issues and policies now. Politicians can and do improve over time and are capable of learning from their mistakes. Farage has.
..........Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report............
If you want to get rid of the wonks in politics, take the excess of money out of politics and in particular the political parties.
I don't care if MPs are paid 100k + pa, and the PM is paid 250k+ pa, it is the money swilling around the (bankrupt) party system. To get rid of the wonks put an upper limit on party spending. Get rid of the need for big backers who buy influence with spending limits. Get rid of the unwelcome invasion of the party into areas where it is unwelcome. Get rid of the overbearing hectoring party system and allow members to to represent the interests of the community they are elected by.
I see that the delightfully fragrent Tulip is the niece of the Prime minister of Bangladesh.
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Socrates will love it.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
We've just had an election! Votes trump polls. Even ICM.
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Socrates will love it.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
We've just had an election! Votes trump polls. Even ICM.
Well, only a 30% turnout, I'm not going to draw huge conclusions from that.
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Socrates will love it.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
We've just had an election! Votes trump polls. Even ICM.
Well, only a 30% turnout, I'm not going to draw huge conclusions from that.
But a 1000 bod sample from ICM will be definitive?
Greetings from Washington, and thanks to TSE for the Abba museum link, yum. Shall we club together to buy a ticket for Socrates?
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
Socrates will love it.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
We've just had an election! Votes trump polls. Even ICM.
Well, only a 30% turnout, I'm not going to draw huge conclusions from that.
But a 1000 bod sample from ICM will be definitive?
History has shown that mid term council elections aren't always the most accurate predictors of future General Elections.
@LordAshcroft: Just been told there will be 2 more full days in the Commons to debate same sex marriage. Thought all had been said already!
And ramping up immigration concerns as the centrepiece of the Queens speech.
That combination always works well for the Tories
Cammie would rather like to keep his approval rating above the tory brand which might explain the gay marriage detox continuing.
The immigration posturing is doomed to failure. The issue is inextricably linked to the EU. Farage linking it to IN/OUT is not forced or desperate since so much of it clearly hinges on what the EU is doing.
Cameron said that UKIP supporters should be respected, but then a Downing Street source was quoted as referring to them as "life's losers." Which reflects Cameron's view most accurately, I wonder?
We've just had an election! Votes trump polls. Even ICM.
Any campaign manager for a party ignoring voters dedicated enough to turn out for council elections needs their head examined. They might not decide the next election but they sure as sh*t are going to play a big part in it.
Well her first name alone disqualifies her, but she's another SPAD/Westminster insider, I so loathe in British politics these days
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP Press officer for London Labour Party Researcher at Philip Gould Associates Researcher for the Greater London Authority Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report.
It's like the big parties WANT Farage and UKIP to take over.
Oddly, I think the problem is that for senior politicians who are as perfectly polished in presentation as decades in politics can manage, the leaders on both stratas don't seem to realize that their presentation is what is the problem. Although it would not be a huge problem were it not for something else
It makes them all look and sound the same, and terrifyingly bland, and while I am a big believer in the fact they have become so bland by design because it works - that people have wanted safe, bland leaders - the less polished, riskier Farage type presentation only seems to get mainstream appeal when most people don't think that all the other lot are pretty shit.
Their blandness is almost comforting if people had any confidence they weren't equally crap, but since they are perceived that way, the risky actual personality - gods forbid - of Farage and the occasional character in their own ranks, holds no fears, but the leaders don't seem to realize that, because the bland thing has worked until now.
The effect is not enough to prevent them from holding on to their positions, but it prevents any turnaround from viewing our political classes with contempt.
As mad as they can sometimes be, I find local councillors to be much more relatable and trustworthy, even the lower quality ones. If some oxbridge party hack tells me once more they know what it's like for the public and what is best for them in a tone like they're reading an autocue that magically appears on the faces of whoever they are talking to, I may scream.
They do themselves a disservice with their incautious, frightened-of-the-public presentations, because they may well understand the issues and have positive solutions, but they appear so disconnected.
Gods, rant over.
I think it's the constant glare of the spotlight. Everything is recorded, scrutinised from every angle to find a way it can be seen as a gaffe.
The Everton manager could be in line to spend next season working as his fellow Scot’s understudy at Old Trafford as Ferguson prepares to wind down gradually before going into retirement.
..........Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report............
If you want to get rid of the wonks in politics, take the excess of money out of politics and in particular the political parties.
Thank the gods that Europe - ha - ruled that the ban of political advertising on TV was ok. at least.
The immigration posturing is doomed to failure. The issue is inextricably linked to the EU.
There is also an ECHR aspect as well. The Secretary of State has announced that she intends to limit the extent to which those subject to removal and deportation proceedings can rely on article 8 ECHR, and that she intends to introduce primary legislation to give effect to this proposal. It is, of course, incoherent grandstanding, for as long as Human Rights Act 1998 remains on the statute book and the United Kingdom remains subject to the jurisdiction of Strasbourg.
The Everton manager could be in line to spend next season working as his fellow Scot’s understudy at Old Trafford as Ferguson prepares to wind down gradually before going into retirement.
Lies. Ferguson will never retire. They'll just put his head in a jar.
Comments
I think it'd be good if Cameron could, but he won't, and that's not even a slur on his ability, just the difficulty of the task.
Robbery down 40% since its peak a decade ago.
Firearms offences halved (recorded since a decade ago).
Burglary at 1981 levels.
Sexual offences only down 10%, though - could be better reporting.
Edit: That's not aimed at you Mr Grandiose.
But I'm not sure Mrs J. would like that. ;-)
"I think the latest census figures showed that Longbridge is majority BAME."
Well if UKIP can do well there, it'll be a new ball game.
Sir Alex Ferguson considering retiring as Manchester United manager before end of the week
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-united/10042798/Sir-Alex-Ferguson-considering-retiring-as-Manchester-United-manager-before-end-of-the-week.html
Thought it was time to pour some petrol on a good fire.
My observation of last Thursday's results was that UKIP failed to make an impact against established Independents or even against other candidates outside the three main parties. In Surrey, for example, an Independent won in Haslemere, a Green won in Redhill and the various Residents Association candidates in Elmbridge and Epsom had much more trouble from the Tories than from UKIP. In Cornwall, UKIP's impact in a supposedly arch-sceptic area was limited while Independent candidates generally did well
Turnout was low - the Tories prospered in 1998 and 1999 for all the good it did them nationally. What we saw was an anti-established politics vote (motivated) but the beneficiaries were not only UKIP but Independent and other party candidates too. A significant portion of those who will vote in May 2015 didn't vote in May 2013 and those who claim certainty for their General Election predictions on the basis of what happened last Thursday are as naive as those Alliance activists who looked at the 1986 local results as a precursor of the end of Thatcherism.
The advantage UKIP will have in 2015 is that they will be a national presence standing (presumably) in all constituencies ostensibly competing on equal terms with the other parties. The probem is we no longer have a single national political party - all the parties have stronger areas and weaker areas and the campaigning will reflect that. UKIP will, if they've got any sense, pick their battles carefully because 5% and five seats is infinitely better than 15% and no seats. In some areas, they will square off against the Conservatives, in some against Labour, in many others they will be invisible.
The reality of political campaigning is concentrating or targetting resources where they can produce maximum benefit. UKIP will have to play that game or finish up as the SDP did spending money where it achieves nothing. As OGH would never say, it's all about bums on benches. In a national referendum on for example In/Out EU membership, the game is very different and may work well for UKIP but last Thursday illustrated the strengths and weaknesses of all parties as well as how politics operates in a multi-party multi-layered environment.
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=23058
Lord Lawson lol. How he must now regret his ERM posturing from 1985 to 1989 now!
Or ,Benítez to everton ? would everton fans accept him ?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/ukips-godfrey-bloom-blasts-fractional.html
At least that's another politician we can add to the likes of Steve Baker for Wycombe, Douglas Carswell from Clacton, Ron Paul and goodness knows who else who shows an understanding of the pernicious modern financial system.
The rumour in Manchester for some weeks is that Roberto Mancini is also on his way out.
In the world of make believe, who would they go for?
Does anyone have TimT's email-address (obviously not to post-it publically). I only ask because - strangely - he may be able to post a decent threader at The Boss's* place.
:Hint:
* I think he is REME, not light-blue, but....
She stood in 2010 in Leicester I think?
Yes, that's her. She stood in Leicestershire in 2010. I am not sure which compass point. South, I believe. She won a by-election in Candem in 2011.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/06/introducing-the-new-times-yougov-leader-ratings/
http://www.espn.co.uk/mclaren/motorsport/story/107213.html
If teams have equal votes I'd guess it won't be changed.
So it makes more sense to point to things which relate to whether the political class can be trusted to tell the truth on this.
For example
1) The political class colluded in covering up industrial scale child abuse and are currently still colluding in covering up the cover-up. On the one hand how many crimes would be on their stats if they hadn't and on the other if they're prepared to lie about that why wouldn't they lie about other things that spoil their narrative?
2) http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2004/apr/04/ukcrime.ameliahill
1000s of gang rapes committed by a gang-culture the political class deny exists. How many of those crimes are on their stats? If they're prepared to lie about that why should anyone trust their stats?
3) The bmj article i linked just now. Using the homicide rate as a marker although seemingly clear cut is bogus because of medical advances.
4) If the crime rate goes down because of higher rates of incarceration is it honest to claim the crime rate has gone down exactly? Simply saying it's gone down implies fewer criminals whereas if it's gone down because of increased prison numbers the number of criminals can be the same or higher.
5) The dramatic decline in the crime stats coincided with the political class opening the borders and importing very large numbers of young men. Even if their crime rate was 1% of the native population you'd expect crime to go up. Given it's in the interests of the political class' narrative i don't understand how anyone could possibly believe that crime went down at that point (apart of course due to increasing prison places).
So crime carried on going up the same as it had since the 50s and only went down again because of the huge increase in prison places - that's plausible.
Anything else is a joke.
(And his kid is terrifying bright - met him at an exhibition a couple of years back & he was one of the most collected, most impressive 18 year olds I've come across).
One of her contenders is this woman
http://www.tulipsiddiq.com
My Labour Party experience
I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level:
Deputy field director for Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign
Policy adviser to Dame Tessa Jowell MP
Press officer for London Labour Party
Researcher at Philip Gould Associates
Researcher for the Greater London Authority
Caseworker for Harry Cohen MP
http://www.tulipsiddiq.com/about/
LOL!
I thought "I know how Parliament works and have spent most of the last decade supporting Labour at a national level" was your bio and I was getting alarmed!
a poll today which shows a majority of voters want either a completely new relationship with the EU or to leave altogether. Forty two per cent of voters said that they wanted a relationship based on free trade and little else while 21 per cent called for British withdrawal, according to the YouGov poll for The Times.
LOL! We want just true Dutch tulips!
The Liberal Democrats are looking for a temporary graphic designer to provide creative, high impact graphic design, bringing a fresh style and vibrancy across the full range of Liberal Democrat communication channels. Particularly focused on national campaign artwork and internal/corporate communications materials.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/jobs_detail.aspx?title=Temporary_Graphic_Designer&pPK=712fb6b9-a177-4b9c-8a76-d3d635496f3e
That's nothing, King Kenny took us to Wembley, three times last season.
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles\AEFTheDailyBellinterview2013.pdf
I mean, I know Everton can't go out and spend 20 million pounds on the Mackem Messi that is Jordan Henderson in the way Liverpool can.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: UKIP post highest ever support of 16% - almost double the Libs. CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%.
..........Oh gods these political wonks depress me, and I am a political wonk. She'll no doubt fit right in, and with so much time in the internal party bubble will have no idea what normal people are like, unless it's summarized on a Labour party focus group report............
If you want to get rid of the wonks in politics, take the excess of money out of politics and in particular the political parties.
I don't care if MPs are paid 100k + pa, and the PM is paid 250k+ pa, it is the money swilling around the (bankrupt) party system. To get rid of the wonks put an upper limit on party spending. Get rid of the need for big backers who buy influence with spending limits. Get rid of the unwelcome invasion of the party into areas where it is unwelcome. Get rid of the overbearing hectoring party system and allow members to to represent the interests of the community they are elected by.
Lab/LD 48%
Con/UKIP 45%
It makes them all look and sound the same, and terrifyingly bland, and while I am a big believer in the fact they have become so bland by design because it works - that people have wanted safe, bland leaders - the less polished, riskier Farage type presentation only seems to get mainstream appeal when most people don't think that all the other lot are pretty shit.
Their blandness is almost comforting if people had any confidence they weren't equally crap, but since they are perceived that way, the risky actual personality - gods forbid - of Farage and the occasional character in their own ranks, holds no fears, but the leaders don't seem to realize that, because the bland thing has worked until now.
The effect is not enough to prevent them from holding on to their positions, but it prevents any turnaround from viewing our political classes with contempt.
As mad as they can sometimes be, I find local councillors to be much more relatable and trustworthy, even the lower quality ones. If some oxbridge party hack tells me once more they know what it's like for the public and what is best for them in a tone like they're reading an autocue that magically appears on the faces of whoever they are talking to, I may scream.
They do themselves a disservice with their incautious, frightened-of-the-public presentations, because they may well understand the issues and have positive solutions, but they appear so disconnected.
Gods, rant over.
That'll be the banging on about Europe master strategy from the incompetent fops continuing to be a completely unexpected triumph. Not to mention proof positive of Clegg being "back in the saddle".
I expect that probably is the best you've got? How much does he pay to Lawson? Do you know the Guardian weren't scammed? Or, worse, complicit in a scam?
Whereas, we know for a fact that Kellner's wife earns a truck load of money from the EU, if we stay in she'll continue to be paid her substantial pension for the rest of her life, and Kellner will get that same pension for the rest of his if he outlives her.
And Kellner writes his biased piece in the Guardian as president of YouGov, an impartial polling organisation. Not as someone with a lot to lose financially if we leave.
You've had so much practice, I thought you'd be better at smearing by now.
Bloody hell,we could have a all Yorkshire batting line up for England ;-)
I couldn't stand his massive ego and childish antics, and he would stifle the excellent youngsters coming through. My preference is Steve Clarke.
God not the BCS. Have you ever done it? I have. Its a fatuous joke. Asking people to remember the crimes they are aware of months after they occuured is possibly the most haphazard way to assess crime there is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2012
I see the YouGov UKIP bounce has duly arrived, though it's not wildly exciting - 2% up on the one before the press when to town over their success. Oddly it seems to be hurting the LibDems most.
What they now need is an MP defection and/or a by-election that they actually win. If they don't get either for a while I think they'll slide back down to 12% or so.
They will split their reaction as well.
Osborne will take the p!ss
Shapps will start a clumsy press attack
Cameron will do nothing
Crosby will blame the other three.
Re YouGov, I'm going to reserve judgement until I see the ICM this month.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/77834/the_independent_tuesday_7th_may_2013.html
tim should like the independent front page ;-)
Clegg is far more accomplished at the Blair school of naturalistic polished speaking than Cammie will ever be but it simply doesn't matter because Clegg is toxic and that will not change.
Farage, for all the undoubted anti-politics appeal he naturally exudes, is also not the same Farage as 2010 and has improved markedly. Gone are the times when Farage would turn every single issue into an anti-Europe rant and he is far more comfortable speaking on other issues and policies now. Politicians can and do improve over time and are capable of learning from their mistakes. Farage has.
If you want to get rid of the wonks in politics, take the excess of money out of politics and in particular the political parties.
I don't care if MPs are paid 100k + pa, and the PM is paid 250k+ pa, it is the money swilling around the (bankrupt) party system. To get rid of the wonks put an upper limit on party spending. Get rid of the need for big backers who buy influence with spending limits. Get rid of the unwelcome invasion of the party into areas where it is unwelcome. Get rid of the overbearing hectoring party system and allow members to to represent the interests of the community they are elected by.
I see that the delightfully fragrent Tulip is the niece of the Prime minister of Bangladesh.
Born to rule.
BREAKING NEWS: TRAFFIC FROM SYRIA DISAPPEARS FROM INTERNET
http://labs.umbrella.com/2013/05/07/breaking-news-traffic-from-syria-disappears-from-internet/
The most important aspect of UKIP is that it is stripping out Tory members. UKIP could well overtake the Tories in members over the next decade.
Almost two million buy-to-let property owners will be responsible for checking the immigration status of potential tenants, with fines running into thousands of pounds for those breaking the law. Employers will also face “more substantial” fines for taking on illegal immigrants.
Says tom newton dunn.
The immigration posturing is doomed to failure. The issue is inextricably linked to the EU.
Farage linking it to IN/OUT is not forced or desperate since so much of it clearly hinges on what the EU is doing.
Compared with most clubs though they do spend quite big, albeit spending the profits of Rooney and Lescott (what a deal that was!)
My comparison was intended to be with Wenger, who is castigated while Moyes is lauded and I think Wenger does the better job pound for pound.
The Everton manager could be in line to spend next season working as his fellow Scot’s understudy at Old Trafford as Ferguson prepares to wind down gradually before going into retirement.
Thank the gods that Europe - ha - ruled that the ban of political advertising on TV was ok. at least.