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Apologising for the Liz Truss mishanter – politicalbetting.com
Apologising for the Liz Truss mishanter – politicalbetting.com
Do you think the Conservatives would be right or wrong to apologise for the Liz Truss mini?Budget?Right: 47%Wrong: 17%Among 2024 Tory votersRight: 39%Wrong: 33%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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I can understand why some Tories are a little bit shy of criticising everything in the budget - even though the "fiscal event" screwed us - because they fear that'd undermine the argument to lower taxation. It did at least drop the H&SC levy, and did indicate a belief in most taxes coming down.
But that budget screwed the 40p rate coming back for a generation.
Is there a commitment to sound money and an end to deficit spending?
A government (or potential government) committed to living within our means would be a novelty that we haven't seen for decades.
They threw her out in record time. The acknowledgement of her failure is obvious. Overt apology is probably a minor step but one that would be a good thing. It's not like they're ever going to defend her as a good PM.
I don't know what the answer is for our economic woes, especially given the current world situation. But it'd be good if we all agreed that there are no easy answers, and it will involve all of us suffering to some extent.
The PIGS example is interesting; will we be a Greece or a Portugal ?
There's always a constituency for such a government, but it's almost always a minority constituency. The US is the poster child for this - the aggressive tax cutting party is adding several trillion to the deficit - but we're only slightly better.
"Mishanter" - a new word down from the Isle pf Skye. Thanks.
But there's also the other side of the equation: where do we put taxes up. It'll have to be both.
And IIRC you, at least, have tried to give an answer to these in the past. Many do not.
He said, 'I have known Liz Truss very well for many years. And to know her is to know also that she should not be put in charge of anything at all.'
He also claimed that Kwarteng was actually opposed to the fiscal event, and was privately much more critical of Truss than was let on in public.
And finally, he added, 'it reflects very badly on us as a party, and on Boris Johnson, Theresa May and David Cameron who made her ministers, that we ever let her near power.'
This might give them space to attack the government's plans.
The Opposition's core problem is that everything Labour is screwing up (by their lights) was started under the blue team. It's not about Truss who was only running the show for about three days of Penny carrying her big sword, it's everything.
There need to be tax rises too. Everyone wants the magic cure of economic growth, but in reality that is just a conjuring trick of deficit spending on either tax cuts or public sector spending, a short term sugar rush.
Growth happens because of fundamentals. Sound money, strong educational achievements, geographic and social mobility of the workforce, appropriate but not excessive regulation, affordable and reliable energy.
There is absolutely no guarantee that Boris won't come back; or some pandemic will appear; or the US will shatter the world financial system for a while. Politicians are like alchemists - promising gold from their leaden ideologies.
A study of medieval murders shows that Oxford is (was) a violent cesspool...
https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/06/cold-case-files-the-medieval-murder-of-a-troublesome-priest/
(I'm unsure that's the takeaway point I was supposed to make from this fascinating research...)
1000 per hour = 17 per minute.
17 / min —> 40 / min is a very impressive increase in capacity
But much less good that the impression that a casual reader would take away from a glance at the tweet.
Here's the prominent graph (my photo quota):
Here he excludes the census "White Other" category from his "White British" numbers *. That excludes eg, as far as I can see, Nigel Farage's children with his German wife, who are British citizens. I'd say Goodwin seems to have a strange thing about mixed marriages, even white-white mixed marriages, which should fit his race politics template.
I'm OK with stats, due to a numerical degree and my career, but if we have an academic social scientist here, I'd welcome an evaluation of Goodwin's report. ( @Selebian ?).
It's from this report, via his Visiting Professorship at the University of Buckingham at in a thing called the "Centre of Heterodox Social Science https://www.heterodoxcentre.com". It was fed to the Telegraph and similar news outlets. Even the Telegraph calls it a "claim".
https://www.heterodoxcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/3-CHSS-Goodwin.pdf To me this is policy based evidence which is weak and swallowed by too many, because Goodwin is trying to scare people, such as the one William quotes, to support his and his allies' politics, by playing with his statistics. In my view this is race / white nationalist politics, and we need to call it by its correct name. Similarly the routine demonisation of "Muslims" we see in our media every day.
* See the "Appendix: UK Population Projections by selected characteristics, 2022–2122 " in the report.
Here's Narendra Modi doing the same:
"Best wishes on Eid ul-Adha. May this occasion inspire harmony and strengthen the fabric of peace in our society. Wishing everyone good health and prosperity."
https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1931189820883104208
Also, how many of the components are homegrown, and how many are imported. I bet almost all the chips are imported, for instance, but how many circuit boards are they making in Ukraine?
That's the problem, really. She was an utter loon before, an utter loon during, and an utter loon since.
And the membership still voted for her...
I think a big thing for the Conservative Party is the need to embrace the long-term not the short-term, and that means removing their belief in selling off assets rather than building a future, and dealing with their connections to certain types of financialisation. And to embrace the national interest more strongly, and particularly the promotion of civic life within the UK.
IMO it also means embracing a higher tax base, and to stop pandering to their wealthy base by permanent under-taxation of assets, especially housing assets which deliver tax free work free earnings.
For me, this shows every sign of taking up to a generation, that is if there is a future for the party.
If they choose to do so, the Starmer Government can do necessary reforms first, and leave what is lefty of the Cons marooned in the past.
https://x.com/dankaszeta/status/1930965347680591968?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Another manifestation of the triumph of politics over government. That didn't start with Cameron, and he's not the only one responsible, but it's another way that his contribution looks increasingly shlonky as time passes.
It's by far the most impressive one.
https://sites.santafe.edu/~simon/styled-7/
https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/about/projects
Bottom line: We are products of the time we live in.
Mind you both were likely to get stuck in the lav, the former from gormlessness, the latter endlessly checking her make up.
The Ukranians are the world leaders in this, but the Russians are copying fast. It's a shift to defensive decentralised defensive weapons that makes assembling a concentration of forces for battle a major risk.
For example, one of the bigger mistakes of the coalition, which otherwise had the right ideas, was to cutting too much investment.
At a time when it was still possible to borrow at quite low long term interest rates.
Sustained capital investment by government has a significant role in growth.
It's become a cliche and the culturally right version of "celebrate diversity", and just as annoying.
Why did you choose to present the comparative data with inconsistent bases?
On social issues I am free and easy. I don't like other people telling me how to live and reciprocate by not telling other people how to live. It's why I am a liberal, not a conservative.
Or this one: death for theft:
https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/record/t17450424-34
Austerity would have been so bad and obvious if new schools / railways / hospitals / roads could be shown..
Beijing denies helping Moscow, but Russia is scaling up both the production and the sophistication of its drones.
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-russia-lethal-drone-war-race-ukraine-war-invasion-manufacture-putin-tech/
...“Chinese manufacturers provide them with hardware, electronics, navigation, optical and telemetry systems, engines, microcircuits, processor modules, antenna field systems, control boards, navigation. They use so-called shell companies, change names, do everything to avoid being subject to export control and avoid sanctions for their activities,” said Oleh Aleksandrov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service. “Yet officially, China sticks to all the rules. Yet only officially.”..
..Kyiv says that its access to new drones has been curtailed by China, while Beijing has placed no such restrictions on Russia.
“The Chinese Mavic is open to the Russians, and it is closed to the Ukrainians. They simply closed it for Europe and for Ukraine, including for the EU. And for the Russians, there is still an opportunity to buy drones on the Chinese market,” Zelenskyy said..
China is by some distance the largest producer of drones and, most importantly, drone components.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98z_Jvhbwvc
There has always been, and always will be a role for borrowing. We have quite sophisticated tools for working out returns on investment, including that by government.
Possibly too late to make much difference for the PB demographic, but our kids will benefit.
Alzheimer’s blood test can spot people with early symptoms, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/07/alzheimers-blood-test-can-spot-people-with-early-symptoms-study-suggests
..Dr Gregg Day, who led the study in the journal Alzheimer’s and Dementia, said the test was as good as more invasive tests in use.
“Our study found that blood testing affirmed the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease with 95% sensitivity and 82% specificity,” he said.
“When performed in the outpatient clinical setting, this is similar to the accuracy of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of the disease and is much more convenient and cost-effective.”
Overall, researchers found that p-tau217 levels were higher in patients with Alzheimer’s disease versus those without the disease.
Day said the next steps in the research were to evaluate blood-based testing in more diverse patient populations and people with early Alzheimer’s who showed no cognitive symptoms...
It was titled "Voices from the Old Bailey".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b012stwb/episodes/player
Here's one (40 minutes) about Shoplifting in 1699.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04fc80v
Thank-you - I will now relisten to a couple of those on my walk. 8 episodes are still available.
Government is great at overpriced, misspecified investment disasters and zombie white elephants that just stumble on regardless of any economic benefits.
It is lousy at sustained capital investment that has a significant role in growth.
There are any number of reasons for this (political pressures, the cult of the intelligent amateur in government, private sector contractors knowing a mark when they see one, etc.) but the record of government in large capital projects is mostly pitiful and yet we keep on thinking that this time it's different.
Ditch gold plated pensions in public services. Once things in order then start to give out freebies.
No benefits or 4 star hotels for economic migrants arriving illegally in boats or any other method.
That would be a good start.
The lack of investment outside the South East is quite likely a contributor to the UK's economic underperformance.
Fried said he found “genuinely ancient” IT systems that were “nearly as old as me” and costing the council in wasted staff hours. He said that officials worked incredibly hard but were blighted by antiquated processes and inefficient procurement practices.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/cade944e-3902-4ffb-a547-23aac146bd6e?shareToken=56ae42ee5818ab0c33a72fa5b1cdfca7
Which is very likely true, but a long way from LAZY WFH DESK JOCKEYS or MILLIONS OF FRAUD.
Requiring that all government investment come from income would both represent a large, and largely unnecessary fiscal contraction, and make government decision making still more cumbersome than it now is.
If you're borrowing for genuine capital investment, you're bequeathing the assets to your kids, along with the debt.
It's almost the direct opposite of selling assets to pay for current spending.
The Kyiv Independent was reporting that a week ago, and Bloomberg on May 29. I probably got it from Ukraine the Latest.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said China has stopped selling drones to Ukraine and Western countries while continuing to supply them to Russia, Bloomberg reported on May 29.
....
Beijing has repeatedly denied aiding either side with military goods. On May 27, the Chinese Foreign Ministry also rejected claims made by Ukrainian intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko, who alleged that Beijing provided special chemicals, gunpowder, and other defense-related materials to at least 20 Russian military-industrial facilities.
Ivashchenko also said that as of early 2025, 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones were of Chinese origin. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterated that China has "never provided lethal weapons" and "strictly controls dual-use items." https://kyivindependent.com/china-suts-drone-sales-to-ukraine-west-but-continues-supplying-russia-bloomberg-reports/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/china-cut-drone-sales-to-west-but-supplies-them-to-russia-ukraine-says?embedded-checkout=true
The insight I get from that, I think, is the importance of specialism. A very good current example of an independent, whom I have no idea how he got to be an authority, is HI Sutton of Covert Shores. His website design is circa 1996-7.
http://www.hisutton.com/
What firm commitments exist are Gosplan style job creation schemes that look a lot like levelling up and will presumably end up with the same lack of success as all other attempts.
One of the few comments on hardware, "up to" (LOL) 12 x SSN, was quite interesting. The figure of 12 was obviously arrived at by adding the planned British 7 to the planned Australian 5 indicating that the RAN are maybe having to trim their nuclear submarine ambitions in the AUKUS money furnace. It also depends on building one boat every 18 months. The fastest an Astute has ever been built is 113 months for HMS Ambush so... yeah...
It mentions NATO about 100 times so the UK defence establishment clearly isn't ready to give up on it/face reality (delete as appropriate) yet. It mentions the EU once, so SKS is clearly scared of the Fukkers and didn't want to give them any thing that feeds the Brexit Betrayal narrative.
https://medievalmurdermap.co.uk/
Borrow, invest, gain a return on the investment. Capitalism! Especially when the state can borrow below market rate (effectively for free during that long period after the GFC) and can invest to drive economic growth.
This is the true crime of Osborneism.
The Chinese are making out like bandits...
Russians bought FPV drone components from China and received wooden blocks with glued-on photos of circuit boards.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1931161668131991552
We need far less state and far less tax and let people spend their money. Instead they make it better to be idle and live off benefits.
There is nothing wrong with borrowing to invest. It is borrowing to burn that is the problem. And it goes beyond government. The manta of investment = subsidy means that the private sector largely stopped investing as well.
Changed world, and a British consular presence is important. Probably even the ferrero rocher.
Defence, NHS, pensioner's pensions, pensioner's social care, welfare for disabled people, police and justice system? Because at the moment that's where the money is going.
I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole.
And part of me is feeling a bit Mandy Rice Davies. The guy is a entrepreneur selling IT solutions. He would say that wouldn't he?
But this seems to have been a known issue for at least the best part of a year, with efforts to address it:
https://dev.ua/en/news/kytai-zakruchuie-haiky
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/04/08/ukraine-is-making-fpv-drones-without-chinese-parts-and-at-lower-cost/
The stuff that is good value-for-money is built slowly but continuously. A small(er), highly experienced workforce, with time to plan. If we stop-start stuff like HS2 we delay the benefits while massively increasing the costs. The submarine programme actually works quite well because the various contractors have contracts stretching decades in advance.
There should be a long term but limited plan to dual various roads (A1, A9, A96), slowly add trams to our cities (Edinburgh etc), build HS2. There should be no point at which these workforces ever down tools.
Why doesn't that happen? That's right - we can't afford it. So instead of spending a little in capex to replace the lights with ones that collapse the energy bill long term, we "save" that investment and pay a lot more in leccy costs.
It's mind-numbingly stupid.
Hopefully still made in Britain.
(Off out now. Play nicely.)
(Stuff like the triple lock is a very long term problem that also needs to be fixed. But if you're looking to free up cash in the next 5-10 years, it's all about hospitals).
I am not sure if he thinks I really like them, or is just taking the piss too.
And the choruses throughout the 90s and 00s insisting Dubai was one huge expensive white elephant that would surely soon come crashing down.
Build and they will come.
Asset sweating is and remains the British disease.
Something really needs to be done about distingushing "White anglo-saxon/celtic", from "White British" in the census, otherwise it's just both a permanent boon for the far-,right, and an unjustified sense of exclusion for everyone else,, of whatever race they are too.
It's also a great shame Starmer canned the AI supercomputer (I forget the technical time) that was lined up and ready to be invested in.
You need a strong social taboo to stop people eating seedcorn, and that taboo has been ground away since at least the days of Lawson. (See also: the racier bits of Private Equity, who would once have been denounced as the unacceptable face of capitalism.)
Many places would have welcomed a bus service never mind gazillions spent on an extra white elephant railline for London.
We need to give local and regional areas more ability to spend the money given to them and ideally the ability to raise (and borrow money themselves). To say build that local metro or tram system
What London investment shows is that infrastructure spending works, and is needed everywhere.
The hotels aren’t providing a 4 star service for those currently in them but the locals will remember them as the (ignoring the ancient, needing refurbishment bit) 4 star hotel in their town where occasional they had an ok expensive meal