Will Jenrick or Cleverly be the orange ball-chewing gimp of Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

System

Will Jenrick or Cleverly be the orange ball-chewing gimp of Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

The Sunday Times published a story about Kemi Badenoch’s leadership which has progressed as serenely as Operation Citadel did for the Germans, it really is a matter of when she is replaced before the general election not if and inevitably discussion has turned to her successor, Tim Shipman writes

Read the full story here

ydoethur

there’s only one Tory MP who received over 50% of the vote at the last election not the eight Boris Johnson and his allies think there are.

Boris Johnson and his allies think?

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

there’s only one Tory MP who received over 50% of the vote at the last election not the eight Boris Johnson and his allies think there are.

Boris Johnson and his allies think?

Terrible lisp you have this morning, @ydoethur.

boulay

Missing a word @TSE

ydoethur

To go completely off topic:

Today is the last day for HGVs to use the old Severn Bridge at Chepstow. From tomorrow, any vehicle over 7.5 tonnes will be redirected over the Prince of Wales Bridge.

There is a lot of angst locally about how this will massively increase congestion on the latter. Personally, I can't see it. Very few HGVs use the old Severn Bridge now anyway for all sorts of reasons - it's a lot further than the new route, it's got much less effective wind shielding, and it doesn't really lead anywhere.

Yes, it will be an inconvenience for HGVs going to Chepstow or Caldicot from Bristol, adding maybe 10-15 miles to the journey, but we're not exactly talking about a large convoy here.

What it does point up, and this is going to be a really massive issue going forward for any government, is the ageing motorway network and its viaducts trying to cope with more and larger vehicles than it was ever designed for - many of these viaducts of cheap concrete also now getting on for sixty years old. There is going to need to be a lot of renewal in the next few years, which is going to be (a) immensely disruptive and (b) bloody expensive.

another_richard

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

To go completely off topic:

Today is the last day for HGVs to use the old Severn Bridge at Chepstow. From tomorrow, any vehicle over 7.5 tonnes will be redirected over the Prince of Wales Bridge.

There is a lot of angst locally about how this will massively increase congestion on the latter. Personally, I can't see it. Very few HGVs use the old Severn Bridge now anyway for all sorts of reasons - it's a lot further than the new route, it's got much less effective wind shielding, and it doesn't really lead anywhere.

Yes, it will be an inconvenience for HGVs going to Chepstow or Caldicot from Bristol, adding maybe 10-15 miles to the journey, but we're not exactly talking about a large convoy here.

What it does point up, and this is going to be a really massive issue going forward for any government, is the ageing motorway network and its viaducts trying to cope with more and larger vehicles than it was ever designed for - many of these viaducts of cheap concrete also now getting on for sixty years old. There is going to need to be a lot of renewal in the next few years, which is going to be (a) immensely disruptive and (b) bloody expensive.

Trying to keep an ageing, poorly-maintained artefact functional in modern conditions, despite the massive disruption caused?

Sounds very on-topic to me.

(But in general, yes. It's far too easy to fudge the cost of the road system by stretching the maintenance cycle. Which is one of the important reasons the British State is in this state, only soluble with either lots of spending now or a time machine.)

DavidL

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

SandyRentool

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

williamglenn

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Pro-natalism?

Theuniondivvie

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Strange noises, messy hair, lies, stunts, hiding from hostile media.
So same as Britain Trump Mk I really.

boulay

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

1. Salary increase for all Prime ministers to £2million per year.
2. 40 weeks holiday for Prime Ministers.
3.Bwah,mumble, pah, mildly racist gag.
4. Compulsory Ancient Greek lessons.
5. Cardboard buses.

rkrkrk

Agree with header. Far more profitable for Boris to flirt with this. At the very least, why do it now... years from an election. Smarter to trouser some serious cash talking up this rumour and decide a bit later.

stodge

Morning all

Everyone is chasing after this key segment of the voting public - ex-Labour, LEAVE supporters who went strongly for Boris in 2019. They are being courted by Nigel and Boris like two suitors in a pub on a Saturday night.

Currently they are with Nigel but could they forgive Boris and take him back?

ydoethur

boulay said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

1. Salary increase for all Prime ministers to £2million per year.
2. 40 weeks holiday for Prime Ministers.
3.Bwah,mumble, pah, mildly racist gag.
4. Compulsory Ancient Greek lessons.
5. Cardboard buses.

Charlotte Owen to continue serving tea and crumpet?

algarkirk

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

SandyRentool

Bozo gets paid for spouting shite. The more shite he spouts, the more he gets paid.

This only works as long as there are idiots who want to read the shite he spouts.

Sadly, these people still exist.

IanB2

Yes, choosing policies according to whatever he thinks we want to hear is just what we need right now.

Taz

stodge said:

Morning all

Everyone is chasing after this key segment of the voting public - ex-Labour, LEAVE supporters who went strongly for Boris in 2019. They are being courted by Nigel and Boris like two suitors in a pub on a Saturday night.

Currently they are with Nigel but could they forgive Boris and take him back?

Once they come to terms with the Boriswave and accept there will be more of the same if he ever comes back, then yes.

Taz

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

But if working full time would make them worse off then why would they do it ?

The whole benefits package needs review as does incentives to work.

algarkirk

boulay said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

1. Salary increase for all Prime ministers to £2million per year.
2. 40 weeks holiday for Prime Ministers.
3.Bwah,mumble, pah, mildly racist gag.
4. Compulsory Ancient Greek lessons.
5. Cardboard buses.

Mostly these are a bit sub optimal, but suggestion 4 is so good, and would benefit the nation and society so much that it would far outweigh the downside all the others.

Pulpstar

He'd probably lead to an increase in Tory polling were he to come back at Reform's expense
But it wouldn't be 2019 again, he failed spectacularly to control immigration and both Starmer and Farage would hammer that at every opportunity

rottenborough

New brain scan can diagnose Alzheimer’s before any symptoms

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/25/brain-scan-detects-alzheimers-before-symptoms-appear-in-wor

vik

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

The child could always be sold.

Eabhal

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Scott_xP

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

RochdalePioneers

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

algarkirk

Re the article, I agree that Boris is unlikely to be the Tory leader again, but unlike TSE I think plenty of Tory MPs would be willing to be his temporary vicar on earth while awaiting the return of the anointed one.

If the party came to its senses, Tugendhat and Hunt remain possibles at fairly long odds - odds accurately reflecting the chance of the party coming to its senses.

Foxy

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

We used to have a problem of teenage pregnancies, now we don't and people are moaning.

There's no pleasing people.

Stuartinromford

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

eek

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Eabhal

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

algarkirk

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

MarqueeMark

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Winning.

Though the method of achieving that is a state secret.

isam

stodge said:

Morning all

Everyone is chasing after this key segment of the voting public - ex-Labour, LEAVE supporters who went strongly for Boris in 2019. They are being courted by Nigel and Boris like two suitors in a pub on a Saturday night.

Currently they are with Nigel but could they forgive Boris and take him back?

Forgive Boris for immigration rather than Party gate I take it?

For those who voted Leave and wanted the referendum result enacted, in many constituencies the only option was to vote Conservative in 2019. BXP didn’t stand against Leave supporters in case they split the vote and let in second referendumers (“People’s Vote” 🤣) through the middle.

One of the main “People’s Vote” pushers is also courting these voters, realising ten years after that mass immigration isn’t a magic wand. Farage is the only show in town for immigration sceptics, Boris has already failed, and Starmer’s current affectation is not credible after a career saying the opposite

Stuartinromford

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

They have taken their "safe seat, big beast" responsibilities seriously in recent decades- Leon Brittan, William Hague, Rishi Sunak is a pretty heavyweight run of MPs (anywhere done better?) Whether Boris is worthy to tie their shoelaces depends on one's view of Boris.

MarqueeMark

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

To be fair to Boris, we have no idea what his levelling up agenda might have delivered if we hadn't maxed the credit card on Covid.

But to kick Boris in the nuts, he was all gung-ho about tidal power until he had a chance to implement it, when instead he went nuclear. So fuck him.

As I've said, there's more chance of a Rolf Harris comeback.

boulay

…

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

I would like to see Alex Chalk parachuted into that seat if Rishi steps down - he’s the calibre of politician the Tories are lacking at the moment, articulate, intelligent and telegenic and frankly very human in interviews.

wooliedyed

Morning all.
First - it's not happening via a by election. Boris, I think, wins in NW London - Harrow not really as much of an option due to the work Blackman has done specifically and personally to court the hindu vote and is now a 1922 bigwig (I think Boris would still win here but knowing him he pisses off the Hindu vote in day one by Borissing). I think he easily wins Ruislip, Uxbridge or Hendon but only Ruislip is Con held. Elsewhere there will be much more pushback. Boris is a London centric kind of dog and in the immediate area i think Windsor is the most likely landing zone - but it has a first term MP who might not want to give up his new job. It had lowish Reform vote at 10% and a split Lab/LD at 20% ish each. However it has LD by election special written all over it - they'd flood the seat and probably rin him very close if not surge past him. Too risky. No by election if Ruislip isn't vacated (and I don't see it)

Secondly - crazy as it is, i can see a rule change and leading from outside working in principle IF he can get Jenrick /Cleverly or others to be his man on the spot.
Advantages - its new (new is good say the people!), it means PMQs/Commons missteps by subordinates are less important as we now go lIve to Big Dog for eviscerations and some Latin and hair and unbearable waffle. It means subordinates can score wins in the opposite of the above (even the worker drones are destroying Keir).zero talk of 'the leaders seat is under threat' as he won't announce he's running in Uxbridge until the GE is nigh (he's running in Uxbridge), confuses the government on where to focus fire.

Disadvantages- he's not an MP/no mandate from voters to lead the opposition, it looks a bit like a party in a lot of trouble (they are). Dumb puppy in the Commons yipping on behalf of the large dog. It's Boris/baggage. Lines of delineation issues on who's doing what. Will be constantly attacked as an arrangement by the MSM/lobby who will want much better access to LOTO. It's Boris. It's Boris. It's Boris

Scott_xP

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

If BoZo won the seat, he would spend less time there than Nigel Fucking Farage does in Clacton

Eabhal

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 in earnings, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero for single parents.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

RochdalePioneers

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

Why would they need to live in the constituency? Back in the Good Old Days Tory MPs would turn up to Association fetes and other such things and not bother the rest of the time.

TimS

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

wooliedyed

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

IanB2

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

The difference is that Trump has clearly believed in tariffs for decades, whereas it is questionable whether Johnson ever believed in Brexit, and if he did it was only by persuading himself after making a tactical choice at the last minute.

algarkirk

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

Objective truth is doing fine thanks, it hasn't died at all. Its objective nature means that, unlike other sorts of quasi truth, it is entirely independent of human opinion, the facts of those opinions being part of the objective truth of things. As Wittgenstein helpfully points out, 'The world is everything that is the case'.

RochdalePioneers

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 per annum, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

I do love the idea that poor people decide to make themselves poorer just to claim more benefits. As if the extra cash offsets the cost of having a child. Its the most outrageous form of snobbery...

isam

Scott_xP said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

If BoZo won the seat, he would spend less time there than Nigel Fucking Farage does in Clacton

And to think I used to get told off for calling Sir Keir, “Sir Keir”

Nigelb

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

MustaphaMondeo

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

I asked around. I was told CCGT was running to meet 24hr interconnection contracts. And that’s due to us not being able to move surplus Scottish wind farm electricity south to France. We need more pylons or more copper on the existing pylons.

I think this is likely to be right but it’s not horses mouth.


I guess we could do with more ways to use cheap electricity. I heard Dale Vince was trialling energy to diamonds. Probably a wind up. Pun intended.

Scott_xP

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

The difference is that Trump has clearly believed in tariffs for decades, whereas it is questionable whether Johnson ever believed in Brexit, and if he did it was only by persuading himself after making a tactical choice at the last minute.

The similarity is that neither has any clue what they mean or how they work.

Nigelb

On topic, don't care.
He's an irrelevance.

While it's possible the Tories will return to their vomit, it's not an interesting bet, either.

Scott_xP

algarkirk said:

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

Objective truth is doing fine thanks, it hasn't died at all. Its objective nature means that, unlike other sorts of quasi truth, it is entirely independent of human opinion, the facts of those opinions being part of the objective truth of things. As Wittgenstein helpfully points out, 'The world is everything that is the case'.

“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’

’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’

’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.”

Sean_F

algarkirk said:

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

Objective truth is doing fine thanks, it hasn't died at all. Its objective nature means that, unlike other sorts of quasi truth, it is entirely independent of human opinion, the facts of those opinions being part of the objective truth of things. As Wittgenstein helpfully points out, 'The world is everything that is the case'.

I always liked Einstein’s response to “One Hundred Scientists Against Einstein.”

“If I’m wrong, one is enough.”

There was never a time (outside wartime) when “objective truth” mattered to politicians.

eek

So as I’m in Berlin today - here’s a baby(ish) panda

Eabhal

MustaphaMondeo said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

I asked around. I was told CCGT was running to meet 24hr interconnection contracts. And that’s due to us not being able to move surplus Scottish wind farm electricity south to France. We need more pylons or more copper on the existing pylons.

I think this is likely to be right but it’s not horses mouth.


I guess we could do with more ways to use cheap electricity.

I would guess the bottleneck is the interconnecter to the continent rather than anything in the UK. Our population centre is near Leicester and offshore wind is more broadly spread around than you might think: https://renewables-map.robinhawkes.com/#5.42/54.843/1.142

MarqueeMark

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

eek

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

I suspect Rishi leaves when the local party chair says we’ve now got a good candidate thank you for keeping the seat warm and protecting us from Bozo

wooliedyed

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

Agreed but I think the Admiral just retakes Portsmouth North in 2028/9
Gullis is looking for a gig!
There's a lot who might fancy the parachute - Steve Baker, sir Grant of the Shapps etc

MustaphaMondeo

Eabhal said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

I asked around. I was told CCGT was running to meet 24hr interconnection contracts. And that’s due to us not being able to move surplus Scottish wind farm electricity south to France. We need more pylons or more copper on the existing pylons.

I think this is likely to be right but it’s not horses mouth.


I guess we could do with more ways to use cheap electricity.

I would guess the bottleneck is the interconnecter to the continent rather than anything in the UK. Our population centre is near Leicester and offshore wind is more broadly spread around than you might think: https://renewables-map.robinhawkes.com/#5.42/54.843/1.142

Super map. Thank you.

wooliedyed

I think, however, on the below that Rishi is seeing out his term and leaving at the next GE.

bondegezou

Speaking of Boris… https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y82pll0epo

“Boris Johnson pushed for a more "ruthless, authoritarian approach" towards people who refused to self-isolate during the pandemic, according to documents seen by the Covid inquiry.

“The instinct of policy makers was to favour "punitive measures" over financial support, wrote Lord Patrick Vallance who spoke to the PM throughout the crisis and appeared alongside him on TV briefings.”

[…]

“ "Instinct of this crew is to go for more enforcement and punitive measures," he wrote.
"We suggested more carrot and incentives [were] required to make people take a test, self-isolate etc, but they always want to go for stick not carrot."”

On SAGE, we were frequently arguing for less stick and more carrot, but that was the ideological bias of Johnson and the Tory government: the solution to a problem is more rules and more punishment… albeit rules that don’t apply to yourself.

We also heard earlier how the Johnson government’s initial fears about the pandemic was of civil unrest, which was so outlandish a fear that questions about it took advisers by surprise. It’s a view of of the public as a threat, to be controlled by force, rather than the people you are meant to be serving.

wooliedyed

bondegezou said:

Speaking of Boris… https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y82pll0epo

“Boris Johnson pushed for a more "ruthless, authoritarian approach" towards people who refused to self-isolate during the pandemic, according to documents seen by the Covid inquiry.

“The instinct of policy makers was to favour "punitive measures" over financial support, wrote Lord Patrick Vallance who spoke to the PM throughout the crisis and appeared alongside him on TV briefings.”

[…]

“ "Instinct of this crew is to go for more enforcement and punitive measures," he wrote.
"We suggested more carrot and incentives [were] required to make people take a test, self-isolate etc, but they always want to go for stick not carrot."”

On SAGE, we were frequently arguing for less stick and more carrot, but that was the ideological bias of Johnson and the Tory government: the solution to a problem is more rules and more punishment… albeit rules that don’t apply to yourself.

We also heard earlier how the Johnson government’s initial fears about the pandemic was of civil unrest, which was so outlandish a fear that questions about it took advisers by surprise. It’s a view of of the public as a threat, to be controlled by force, rather than the people you are meant to be serving.

Yeah.... this is why they can all go flub themselves. (I'm self correcting my potty mouth)

Dura_Ace

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

You're the OG when it comes to Penny Dreadful stans but you're going to have to let it go, man. She'll never love you back in the way you deserve.

Taz

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

If BoZo won the seat, he would spend less time there than Nigel Fucking Farage does in Clacton

And to think I used to get told off for calling Sir Keir, “Sir Keir”

Oh there’s a fair deal of hypocrisy going on. Criticise the Lib Dems or their voters, as I dared to last week, and it’s like you’ve slaughtered some peoples first born. Insult Boris, Reform or some other figures and it’s all one big giggle.

Most amusing

Theuniondivvie

Off topic, I want this pilot to do my prostate exam.


https://x.com/IndianaGPA/status/1926435665471791375

Edit: bugger, AI apparently.

wooliedyed

Taz said:

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

If BoZo won the seat, he would spend less time there than Nigel Fucking Farage does in Clacton

And to think I used to get told off for calling Sir Keir, “Sir Keir”

Oh there’s a fair deal of hypocrisy going on. Criticise the Lib Dems or their voters, as I dared to last week, and it’s like you’ve slaughtered some peoples first born. Insult Boris, Reform or some other figures and it’s all one big giggle.

Most amusing

Never mock the very very earnest, it's intolerable cruelty

vik

Theuniondivvie said:

Off topic, I want this pilot to do my prostate exam.


https://x.com/IndianaGPA/status/1926435665471791375

Edit: bugger, AI apparently.

Yeah, it's fake & not a good one.

For one thing, there would have been a lot of sparks when the other engine touched the ground.

wooliedyed

Well the Macron getting slapped in the chops by his missus video has made my morning!

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

boulay said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

1. Salary increase for all Prime ministers to £2million per year.
2. 40 weeks holiday for Prime Ministers.
3.Bwah,mumble, pah, mildly racist gag.
4. Compulsory Ancient Greek lessons.
5. Cardboard buses.

Charlotte Owen to continue serving tea and crumpet?

Hold the tea

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

To be fair to Boris, we have no idea what his levelling up agenda might have delivered if we hadn't maxed the credit card on Covid.

But to kick Boris in the nuts, he was all gung-ho about tidal power until he had a chance to implement it, when instead he went nuclear. So fuck him.

As I've said, there's more chance of a Rolf Harris comeback.

Harris is dead. Gary Glitter perhaps. Leader, leader, leader....

Dura_Ace

wooliedyed said:

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

Agreed but I think the Admiral just retakes Portsmouth North in 2028/9
Gullis is looking for a gig!
There's a lot who might fancy the parachute - Steve Baker, sir Grant of the Shapps etc

It's a slim majority but she could be vulnerable to a Fukker surge being woke-adjacent.

She has racked up some anti-woke points by becoming a paid shill for Big Tobacco. Maybe that'll be enough.

wooliedyed

Dura_Ace said:

wooliedyed said:

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

I also don’t see Bozo winning the seat - your typical Yorkshire farmer is going to take exception to having the utterly uninterested Bozo as their MP.

He is virtually the only candidate I can see costing the Tories the seat but I do think he would

Rishi usnt giving Boris a way back in, he'd stay on in Parliament till 2034 rather than give Boris Richmond

If Rishi leaves politics, the good folk of Richmond are more likely to warm to Penny Mordaunt than Boris.

Agreed but I think the Admiral just retakes Portsmouth North in 2028/9
Gullis is looking for a gig!
There's a lot who might fancy the parachute - Steve Baker, sir Grant of the Shapps etc

It's a slim majority but she could be vulnerable to a Fukker surge being woke-adjacent.

She has racked up some anti-woke points by becoming a paid shill for Big Tobacco. Maybe that'll be enough.

She will likely win if she runs (Tory complete collapse notwithstanding) but she's yesterday's news anyway. They all are tbf

Cicero

The American far right money men, who have been trying to stage an intervention to save old Blighty from the Libtard woke of universal health care will be interested in the parallels between the return of Trump and the potential return of Boris. Up until now, they have been more interested in Farage, but even now, the RefUk is a far weaker vessel than the Conservative and Unionist Party. Johnson, for all his manifest faults, also looks far more like Trump than the rather ferret-like crawler NF.

So, there certainly is a constituency for the return of Johnson- and in his own story the temptation of a "Winston´s back" parallel for redemption in the same way as his hero at the outbreak of WW II is going to be overwhelming. The problem is that those who most want the reanimation of Johnson´s political career are not necessarily in the Tory Party. Indeed there is a good fraction of the Tories that wouldn´t have him back at any price, many of these are those who were once closest to him.

In the same way that he once double crossed Gove for a position in the Oxford Union, so Johnson will seek to find a patsy in the current leadership of the Tory Party to serve his purpose. He will try to return- he has money and the means of getting a lot more before he returns to the Commons- and he truly, deeply believes that it is his right to be the World King.

The problem is that unless the Tory Party acclaims him, the slightest resistance will seriously damage his plans. The Party is in an extremely fragile position and even a minor spat could now lead to irrelevance. So, perhaps @HYFUD might comment further, but Johnson can only come back if the Tories are united in that cause.

We know Johnson is reckless, so he may decide to make his move too soon. Then the parallel is not Winston, but Lloyd George. The Americans would then focus on the ramshackle vehicle that is RefUK and the Tories pass into history.

Personally I think that all foreign money in British politics should be banned and severely policed. We have certainly had Russian and American interventions, and occasionally other countries too. It is not acceptable and must be stopped.

Mexicanpete

Scott_xP said:

vik said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Donald Trump is proof that one doesn't need a laundry list of policies to be a successful politician.

It's more important for a politician to be charismatic and to have a bold vision for the country.

Trump had policies. Tariffs

BoZo had policies. Brexit

That both of these policies massively hurt the people that voted for them is a sad indictment of our political and media environment

The death of objective truth is killing us

Johnson needs to start writing copiously about the unacceptable "Starmerwave".

Malmesbury

vik said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Off topic, I want this pilot to do my prostate exam.


https://x.com/IndianaGPA/status/1926435665471791375

Edit: bugger, AI apparently.

Yeah, it's fake & not a good one.

For one thing, there would have been a lot of sparks when the other engine touched the ground.

Flight sim game?

algarkirk

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 in earnings, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero for single parents.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

Agree entirely. And I have never said single parents have children for the benefits. Nor, in context, do I much mind if they do. I think there should be a lot more babies born in the west generally, and that our society should stop being a massive conspiracy to stop people under about 45 having children.

What I am saying is that the practice whereby 1.1 million (thanks for the figures) single parent households not on UC should be the model for the rest of them. I am also saying that a society in which people in work are on permanent targetted benefits needs sorting, and a world in which permanent living on benefits is possible is unsupportable in every way.

malcolmg

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

malcolmg

RochdalePioneers said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 per annum, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

I do love the idea that poor people decide to make themselves poorer just to claim more benefits. As if the extra cash offsets the cost of having a child. Its the most outrageous form of snobbery...

RochdalePioneers said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 per annum, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

I do love the idea that poor people decide to make themselves poorer just to claim more benefits. As if the extra cash offsets the cost of having a child. Its the most outrageous form of snobbery...

You don't get it do you, they get paid more on UC than they would ever get working, they are lazy sods, and they can then work for cash on the side. How can it be possible to get paid lots more to do nothing rather than go out and earn your own keep. Madness and it is wishy washy liberal idiots who promote it and are beggaring the country.

Clutch_Brompton

OT - If the last Locals told us anything it is that Johnson is even more politically done than most of us assumed. His return would, however, be very good news for the Lab party as he would help split the right-wing vote which is currently tilting hard towards REFUK.

PS. Proving you can gain the Mail front page while a highly-paid columnist of the (um) Mail isn't perhaps that impressive

MarqueeMark

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

To be fair to Boris, we have no idea what his levelling up agenda might have delivered if we hadn't maxed the credit card on Covid.

But to kick Boris in the nuts, he was all gung-ho about tidal power until he had a chance to implement it, when instead he went nuclear. So fuck him.

As I've said, there's more chance of a Rolf Harris comeback.

Harris is dead. Gary Glitter perhaps. Leader, leader, leader....

I stand by my assessment there is more chance of a Rolf Harris comeback...

malcolmg

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

make the wankers who dipped their wick pay for their children

Mexicanpete

Cicero said:

The American far right money men, who have been trying to stage an intervention to save old Blighty from the Libtard woke of universal health care will be interested in the parallels between the return of Trump and the potential return of Boris. Up until now, they have been more interested in Farage, but even now, the RefUk is a far weaker vessel than the Conservative and Unionist Party. Johnson, for all his manifest faults, also looks far more like Trump than the rather ferret-like crawler NF.

So, there certainly is a constituency for the return of Johnson- and in his own story the temptation of a "Winston´s back" parallel for redemption in the same way as his hero at the outbreak of WW II is going to be overwhelming. The problem is that those who most want the reanimation of Johnson´s political career are not necessarily in the Tory Party. Indeed there is a good fraction of the Tories that wouldn´t have him back at any price, many of these are those who were once closest to him.

In the same way that he once double crossed Gove for a position in the Oxford Union, so Johnson will seek to find a patsy in the current leadership of the Tory Party to serve his purpose. He will try to return- he has money and the means of getting a lot more before he returns to the Commons- and he truly, deeply believes that it is his right to be the World King.

The problem is that unless the Tory Party acclaims him, the slightest resistance will seriously damage his plans. The Party is in an extremely fragile position and even a minor spat could now lead to irrelevance. So, perhaps @HYFUD might comment further, but Johnson can only come back if the Tories are united in that cause.

We know Johnson is reckless, so he may decide to make his move too soon. Then the parallel is not Winston, but Lloyd George. The Americans would then focus on the ramshackle vehicle that is RefUK and the Tories pass into history.

Personally I think that all foreign money in British politics should be banned and severely policed. We have certainly had Russian and American interventions, and occasionally other countries too. It is not acceptable and must be stopped.

But if all that Russian money gets us the Governments of Farage or Johnson that the media of the nation all crave, surely it is good and righteous money. When an earlier iteration of that same rouble gets us Harold Wilson, Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock it is dirty money.

Nigelb

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

JohnLilburne

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

Eabhal said:

algarkirk said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

Have these 'allies of Boris' suggested what different policies he would propose ?

Child Benefit capped at nine children?

The benefits cap should be looked at much more deeply. Politicians want it to remain at a trivial debate about 2 or 3 children each - which is a tacky way of thinking about family life when births are not nearly at replacement level.

The real issue is this: Why are people in work dependent on specific rather than universal child welfare provision. This is no way to run a country or an economy.

Secondly, the idea that significant numbers of families of working age should routinely be living on welfare and not working is simply unacceptable. The post war welfare system was set up for temporary assistance in crisis, not a life style choice.

Look at the breakdown of those getting UC with children - it's primarily single parents. And this is the one type of household where the disincentives for work really are important.

Single parents are very unlikely to have the kind of significant savings that disqualify you from UC payments (and therefore incentivise finding work), and are also unlikely to be sanctioned by DWP in the same way someone without kids might be. They often simply don't have the time for work, particularly if it's irregular shifts and they struggle to find childcare. They tend to have high housing benefit payments, because kids need bedrooms, so their claim value is very high.

The difficulty is those from deprived backgrounds and with single parents have a very poor outlook. Cutting benefits in any way will make that even worse, and the cycle continues into the next generation. Every calculation finds that removing the two-child limit would have by far the biggest impact on child poverty, per £, of any reform - that's why it's so popular among think tanks.

Agree. And breaking the cycle in which in fact there are incentives to be a single family and it is possible to use that as a reason for total long term welfare dependency is a first priority.

The practice to model and work out how to replicate is that of the minority in this situation who work and are only marginally dependent on welfare.

How do you do that without impoverishing those children? And do you have any evidence that those single parents had children just for the benefits?

Even if you get those single parents into work, the base payment for UC is high enough that it would take a very large number of hours at minimum wage to entirely move someone off UC. It's roughly £26,000 in earnings, on average, before the payment is tapered to zero for single parents.

(2.1 million of 3.2 million single parent households are on UC. That compares with 0.8 million of 16.3 million two-parent households.)

Agree entirely. And I have never said single parents have children for the benefits. Nor, in context, do I much mind if they do. I think there should be a lot more babies born in the west generally, and that our society should stop being a massive conspiracy to stop people under about 45 having children.

What I am saying is that the practice whereby 1.1 million (thanks for the figures) single parent households not on UC should be the model for the rest of them. I am also saying that a society in which people in work are on permanent targetted benefits needs sorting, and a world in which permanent living on benefits is possible is unsupportable in every way.

My experience is that the vast majority of lone parents on UC are lone parents due to marital breakup. That probably varies due to the demographic nature of the local area though. Parental contributions to child costs are not counted as income, so if you could have a wealthy father paying a lot of money but the mother would still get the full rate of UC. (Contributions to mortgage payments, or rent over the maximum, don't count either). Of course when the youngest child is 3 they get dragged into the jobcentre and hassled a out finding part time work, but not if one of the children gets DLA and they count as a carer. Add all the bits and pieces up and there is a good argument the benefits system is funding a lot of middle class marital breakup

Taz

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

‘We need them, just not here, it’s the wrong place’

Possibly.

Taz

wooliedyed said:

Taz said:

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Boris has character (not necessarily a good one but its a start), wit, an ability to amuse and to make the story about him. Neither Badenoch or Jenrick tick any of those boxes. He also, of course, has a lot of baggage but at least he might get an audience. The problem the Tories have right now is that no one is even listening.

But yet another child to feed, a child who will be going to University when he is 78. Can he really afford to come back to front line politics?

This is the key reason why giving him another turn as leader makes sense. Like the return of Trump, the return of the World King would be an endless gift for the news industry. Nobody is interested in what the Conservative Party thinks anymore, but as we all know, Boris is in this for himself and stuff the party.

The obvious seat is Richmond. Sunak wants away, Boris steps in, the King is no longer over the water. He would absolutely need to mea culpa but knowing him it would be done in a way that is funny.

The problem is this: people want change and he failed to deliver any - not positive change anyway. Reform keep faffing about and need to professionalise, and think Boris would force them to do so. Boris as LOTO gives Farage the perfect deflection strategy to his non-policies - point at Boris's failure and waffle as the reminder of everything that has already been tried and abjectly failed.

So yes, lets have Shagger back in parliament. It would be fun.

I don't see Carrie being as sanguine about being an MP's wife in North Yorkshire as Akshata Murty seems to have been.

If BoZo won the seat, he would spend less time there than Nigel Fucking Farage does in Clacton

And to think I used to get told off for calling Sir Keir, “Sir Keir”

Oh there’s a fair deal of hypocrisy going on. Criticise the Lib Dems or their voters, as I dared to last week, and it’s like you’ve slaughtered some peoples first born. Insult Boris, Reform or some other figures and it’s all one big giggle.

Most amusing

Never mock the very very earnest, it's intolerable cruelty

Sanctimony is their raison d’etre.

RochdalePioneers

Finalising a deal with a new YouTube channel sponsor. Not trying to haggle on the rates, merely on the currency. Why convert TWD into USD to pay me which I then have to convert into GBP? Can you pay directly as GBP? (*cough* with the same numbers as proposed in USD...)

williamglenn

Mexicanpete said:

Cicero said:

The American far right money men, who have been trying to stage an intervention to save old Blighty from the Libtard woke of universal health care will be interested in the parallels between the return of Trump and the potential return of Boris. Up until now, they have been more interested in Farage, but even now, the RefUk is a far weaker vessel than the Conservative and Unionist Party. Johnson, for all his manifest faults, also looks far more like Trump than the rather ferret-like crawler NF.

So, there certainly is a constituency for the return of Johnson- and in his own story the temptation of a "Winston´s back" parallel for redemption in the same way as his hero at the outbreak of WW II is going to be overwhelming. The problem is that those who most want the reanimation of Johnson´s political career are not necessarily in the Tory Party. Indeed there is a good fraction of the Tories that wouldn´t have him back at any price, many of these are those who were once closest to him.

In the same way that he once double crossed Gove for a position in the Oxford Union, so Johnson will seek to find a patsy in the current leadership of the Tory Party to serve his purpose. He will try to return- he has money and the means of getting a lot more before he returns to the Commons- and he truly, deeply believes that it is his right to be the World King.

The problem is that unless the Tory Party acclaims him, the slightest resistance will seriously damage his plans. The Party is in an extremely fragile position and even a minor spat could now lead to irrelevance. So, perhaps @HYFUD might comment further, but Johnson can only come back if the Tories are united in that cause.

We know Johnson is reckless, so he may decide to make his move too soon. Then the parallel is not Winston, but Lloyd George. The Americans would then focus on the ramshackle vehicle that is RefUK and the Tories pass into history.

Personally I think that all foreign money in British politics should be banned and severely policed. We have certainly had Russian and American interventions, and occasionally other countries too. It is not acceptable and must be stopped.

But if all that Russian money gets us the Governments of Farage or Johnson that the media of the nation all crave, surely it is good and righteous money. When an earlier iteration of that same rouble gets us Harold Wilson, Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock it is dirty money.

The two big policies that Johnson is known for are being pro-immigration and anti-Putin. The former has gone decidedly out of fashion, so if Johnson is to stage a comeback now, it will have to be as a crusader agaisnt Putin, perhaps after bringing Trump around in an echo of Churchill during WW2. Just imagine Boris and Trump signing a new Atlantic Charter to herald the liberation of Europe from the threat of being subsumed into a superstate.

Flatlander

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

Same here. And because we have pylons already we get all the solar farms too.

About time someone dug up Surrey instead.

SandyRentool

This must be the slowest U-turn in history.

malcolmg

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

they are a blot on the landscape, bet not many in the home counties

OldKingCole

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

they are a blot on the landscape, bet not many in the home counties

Quite a lot in Essex, Malc, and the promise of more to come, due to the wind farms in the North Sea.
Certain amount of 'concern, bordering upon hysteria' from the NIMBY brigade.

isam

OldKingCole said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

they are a blot on the landscape, bet not many in the home counties

Quite a lot in Essex, Malc, and the promise of more to come, due to the wind farms in the North Sea.
Certain amount of 'concern, bordering upon hysteria' from the NIMBY brigade.

There sure is!

Andy_JS

Brilliant articles about the "lanyard class" from Janice Turner and Angus Colwell recently.

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/voters-are-sick-of-lectures-from-the-lanyard-class-gxbqg5zhk
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-the-lanyard-class-the-new-enemy/

TimS

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

they are a blot on the landscape, bet not many in the home counties

We do have electricity down here. I have 2 parallel ones running the length of the valley my vineyard’s in, along with a big 5G mast that gives me excellent mobile WiFi coverage on site.

Battlebus

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

they are a blot on the landscape, bet not many in the home counties

You can check here. Open Infrastructure maps

https://openinframap.org/#7.56/51.456/-1.608

Andy_JS

Would Ref do even better with a female leader? There's only one candidate atm obviously.

MattW

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

TimS said:

Eabhal said:

What is going to happen with energy today? We're already at 120%, exporting to the continent and the sun is barely up yet.

I guess we'll be paying lots of turbines to turn off. What a waste.

And we’re still burning gas, presumably down South because the grid can’t get the electricity from the wind farms quickly enough.

0.41gw going into pumped storage.

We’re also, oddly, buying electricity from France up the interconnector at the moment.

Another good illustration of getting stuff built rather than messing around with planning enquiries and legal challenges for half a decade.

Far more grid infrastructure could be built by now if that were the case.

Sure you would love a tower in your garden

I live in West Yorkshir, Malc.
Pylons have crisscrossed the landscape for decades.

It's a complete non issue for 95% - Farage and other bits of the political and media Right scraping around for a marketing narrative, since they have no credible policies.

Not so long ago RefUK were in support of meeting net-zero.

And now Mayor of Lincolnshire is supporting investment in Offshore Wind - that old Conservatve pragmatism.
https://www.desmog.com/2025/05/23/anti-net-zero-reform-mayor-andrea-jenkyns-urges-offshore-wind-investment/

MattW

Good morning everyone. Just.