And yet the big picture is that the government is borrowing about £2000 per person per year. I suspect that there isn't a way of closing that gap that can be perceived as "caring".
The only question is how to distribute the pain, but good luck getting a mandate for that.
At £151bn for the last financial year it is more like £2,200 for every man, women (let's not get bogged down in that again) and child in the country. And its likely to go up given the assumptions of growth and productivity built into the current assessment. Because we are "rich". And entitled. And delusional.
And that delusion is incredibly embedded. We have got away with not really paying our way as a society for most of pretty much all adult life, if not longer. The big difference is that pretty much all the family silver is gone.
When and why it was decided that the media would stop reporting the monthly trade balance is something I'd love to know.
People openly ask why so much of the UK is owned by foreigners, if they'd heard £2bn of trade deficit announced month after month after month after month they might have some idea why that was so.
And yet the big picture is that the government is borrowing about £2000 per person per year. I suspect that there isn't a way of closing that gap that can be perceived as "caring".
The only question is how to distribute the pain, but good luck getting a mandate for that.
At £151bn for the last financial year it is more like £2,200 for every man, women (let's not get bogged down in that again) and child in the country. And its likely to go up given the assumptions of growth and productivity built into the current assessment. Because we are "rich". And entitled. And delusional.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial
You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
Part of the problem is that the government is spending so much but too much is concentrated on too few.
The most important aspect of this graph is that the crossover where 'care about ordinary people' fell below 'select few' is a couple of weeks or so after the scrapping of winter fuel for pensioners.
I suspect the free clothes and tickets that were being discussed that month did not also help.
Dropping WFA must rank v high in the all time list of really stupid political mistakes by Chancellors.
Given the political capital burned, they could at least have used it on something consequential. Absolute basic politics, ignored.
I’d have gone for merging NI and Income tax. Simplify the rates while I’m at it. Put up the higher rate a bit as well.
Pension gets locked to the personal tax allowance - equal forever. Old age benefits go in a blender and come out means tested (or just taxable).
Big campaign on how this means more money for pensioners on less than £30k a year or whatever. The rest is sold as fairness, cost reduction (NI is a whole industry) and required revenue raising.
Honest question for the lefties here - does this appeal more than what happened?
No national insurance should be ringfenced to fund the state pension, contributions based unemployment benefit and some healthcare as it was set up to do
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
I beg to differ with the header - ordinary people don't bother to vote in local elections, only the select few (and this year not many are being held where ordinary people live anyway).
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
A fair summary of both the main UK parties hand in the gender madness - but largely omits the most egregious proponent - the SNP, and current adherents, the LibDems and the Greens:
It’s understandable that Conservatives would want to stick it to Starmer’s Labour after the Supreme Court’s ruling on the meaning of sex in the Equality Act. Labour has supplied the Tories a target-rich environment, from David “men can have a cervix” Lammy, to Dawn “a child is born without a sex” Butler, and Stella “some women have penises” Creasy. Towering over them all in his moral failure is the supreme political coward himself, the Prime Minister — a man who loves talking about all the terribly difficult decisions he has to take as PM, how he’s “country before party”, how he’s so much better than the rest of us — but is too scared to say boo to the trans activist radicals in his own party, or to say anything at all to former Labour MP Rosie Duffield who was hounded out of Labour for views which now, apparently, the government has always shared.
Yes, the Labour Party deserves a thoroughly good kicking — and Badenoch, whose record on these issues is stellar, has the moral right to deliver it.
But the decade of gender madness which might now, hopefully, be drawing to a close, was not begun by Labour.
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
The most important aspect of this graph is that the crossover where 'care about ordinary people' fell below 'select few' is a couple of weeks or so after the scrapping of winter fuel for pensioners.
I suspect the free clothes and tickets that were being discussed that month did not also help.
Dropping WFA must rank v high in the all time list of really stupid political mistakes by Chancellors.
Given the political capital burned, they could at least have used it on something consequential. Absolute basic politics, ignored.
I’d have gone for merging NI and Income tax. Simplify the rates while I’m at it. Put up the higher rate a bit as well.
Pension gets locked to the personal tax allowance - equal forever. Old age benefits go in a blender and come out means tested (or just taxable).
Big campaign on how this means more money for pensioners on less than £30k a year or whatever. The rest is sold as fairness, cost reduction (NI is a whole industry) and required revenue raising.
Honest question for the lefties here - does this appeal more than what happened?
No national insurance should be ringfenced to fund the state pension, contributions based unemployment benefit and some healthcare as it was set up to do
In that case doesn't it have to be raised significantly to fund these things?
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
Indeed, likely to lose 3 times as many seats.
Since they're starting from a much higher base its hardly surprising.
most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the general election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election. There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on 1 May under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Love you too. Sadly I have to work today, so don't have the time to trade insults with the brainless.
Sky's @WilfredFrost questions the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on whether UK gas prices would decrease if the tax rate of 78% on energy companies was lowered by the government.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
Wasn't there a bloke on here pioneering the 'Putin, defender of the West' theory?
It's an odd feeling as one tootles along in a vaguely progressive haze to suddenly get singed by a sudden flare of hard/new/alt/far right certainty, sometimes by people you think you know quite well. Getting more common unfortunately, though very much generational in my experience. More worrying if/when the youngsters start spouting this bollocks I suppose.
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
Indeed, likely to lose 3 times as many seats.
Since they're starting from a much higher base its hardly surprising.
most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the general election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election. There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on 1 May under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame.
Badenoch may partly be saved by cancelled local elections in areas like Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk where Reform are strong. Had they gone ahead Reform would likely have won most council seats next Thursday but instead the Conservatives should still win most seats
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
Another day of the usual suspects "talking down Britain" - there was a time when such activity was widely frowned on by elements of the media and the supporters of the Government of the day.
Elsewhere - trying to read the Canadian election runes from the polling isn't easy.
This morning, we have the latest from Innovative Research (fieldwork 15/4-22/4), whose five point CPC lead from two days ago is looking a bit of an outlier. They poll online and today's offering has the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 38 each with the NDP doing better than some other polls suggest on 12.
The daily Liason Research rolling poll has the smallest Liberal lead for a week at just three points (42-39). Mainstreet's daily rolling poll has the biggest Liberal lead for a week also at three points (also 42-39).
The regional sub samples are also all over the place. Innovative has the Conservatives ahead in Ontario but according to Liason:
The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada (+7), Quebec (+15, with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois tied at 24% for second), Ontario (+8), and British Columbia (+1).
If those numbers are correct, it's going to be very hard for Poilievre to form even a minority Government. Piling up votes on the Prairies does him and the CPC no good - once again, worth stating 199 of the 338 ridings are in Ontario and Quebec.
Early indications suggest a high turnout of advance voting - Canadian voter turnout is usually in the 60s per cent and in 2021 was 67%. There's not been a turnout above 70% since 2000 but I suspect this may be a high turnout contest. Who does that favour? No idea.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
The most important aspect of this graph is that the crossover where 'care about ordinary people' fell below 'select few' is a couple of weeks or so after the scrapping of winter fuel for pensioners.
I suspect the free clothes and tickets that were being discussed that month did not also help.
Dropping WFA must rank v high in the all time list of really stupid political mistakes by Chancellors.
Given the political capital burned, they could at least have used it on something consequential. Absolute basic politics, ignored.
I’d have gone for merging NI and Income tax. Simplify the rates while I’m at it. Put up the higher rate a bit as well.
Pension gets locked to the personal tax allowance - equal forever. Old age benefits go in a blender and come out means tested (or just taxable).
Big campaign on how this means more money for pensioners on less than £30k a year or whatever. The rest is sold as fairness, cost reduction (NI is a whole industry) and required revenue raising.
Honest question for the lefties here - does this appeal more than what happened?
No national insurance should be ringfenced to fund the state pension, contributions based unemployment benefit and some healthcare as it was set up to do
In that case doesn't it have to be raised significantly to fund these things?
And income tax could in turn be cut as it no longer would
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
Of course most Pentecostals globally are black. The next Pope may well be non white.
What he may be saying is the Orthodox church is the last true bastion of conservative white Christianity, though the southern Baptist church also largely is still aligned that way
My dad's company used to run a little fleet of diggers: mainly JCB's, but he moved to Case in the early nineties. Last week he got to sit in a band-new JCB for the first time in nearly three decades. Aside from the ability to change buckets without getting out of the cab - a capability that was just coming in when he sold up - the tech has not massively changed. You will not be digging a trench much faster in one of the modern machines than one of the old ones.
But the cab has changed massively. It is far more comfortable than it was in the nineties, and there are a host of large and small changes that would make the modern machine far superior. even simple things like good air conditioning, when the large glass cabs would become an oven in summer, meaning you needed to open the windows with all the dirt and dust. The price has gone up above inflation, but he says that the new machines are so much better for the operator.
But they will not get the job done that much faster (bucket changing excepted...)
The graph in the header suggests Labour were doing all right until they got themselves elected. A lesson the Tories have clearly taken to heart.
Given i think they'll never make the 'mistake' of a coalition again i think the LDs have made it permanent policy to never be in power again as well.
There's something in this - the coalition has left scars on the current LD leadership though to be fair most of the current MPs weren't any part of it. 2010-15 is ancient history in political terms.
It's more likely this is a subject not to "bang on about" as someone once said about their party and Europe.
No one has the foggiest idea what will happen at the next GE - trying to use the polls now to extrapolate what will happen in 2028 or 2029 is futile. I see some Tories quite like the idea of being the junior partner in a Reform-Conservative coalition Government. The irony of the Tories going through as a junior partner in a coalition what happened to the LDs would be just too much.
Britain feels like the classic cartoon character running off a cliff. The sheer speed at which we were running - fuelled by the explosion of the Industrial Revolution and then the empire has ensured we’ve run really quite a long way for a small country - and we’ve run quite a distance over the edge - we’ve kept up the illusion for an impressively long time
But now the momentum has gone and we dangle in the air, legs whirring
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
Indeed, likely to lose 3 times as many seats.
Since they're starting from a much higher base its hardly surprising.
most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the general election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election. There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on 1 May under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame.
Badenoch may partly be saved by cancelled local elections in areas like Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk where Reform are strong. Had they gone ahead Reform would likely have won most council seats next Thursday but instead the Conservatives should still win most seats
It will be a weird set of results. A notable shift from left to right, compared to 2021, but a notable shift against the Conservatives.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
You missed the moment last night where, with two delicate, equipoised sentences, I stopped the entire site banging on about trans and Canada and got everyone to talk about my chosen subject of cheese. For three hours
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
My dad's company used to run a little fleet of diggers: mainly JCB's, but he moved to Case in the early nineties. Last week he got to sit in a band-new JCB for the first time in nearly three decades. Aside from the ability to change buckets without getting out of the cab - a capability that was just coming in when he sold up - the tech has not massively changed. You will not be digging a trench much faster in one of the modern machines than one of the old ones.
But the cab has changed massively. It is far more comfortable than it was in the nineties, and there are a host of large and small changes that would make the modern machine far superior. even simple things like good air conditioning, when the large glass cabs would become an oven in summer, meaning you needed to open the windows with all the dirt and dust. The price has gone up above inflation, but he says that the new machines are so much better for the operator.
But they will not get the job done that much faster (bucket changing excepted...)
Perhaps this will see more ladies in diggers, like it did with bus drivers (a trend that might be threatened by misogynist LibDems wanting them to confront passengers over phone use – unforeseen consequences and all that).
Britain feels like the classic cartoon character running off a cliff. The sheer speed at which we were running - fuelled by the explosion of the Industrial Revolution and then the empire has ensured we’ve run really quite a long way for a small country - and we’ve run quite a distance over the edge - we’ve kept up the illusion for an impressively long time
But now the momentum has gone and we dangle in the air, legs whirring
In 2016 we were on the edge
Some people voted to jump
Brexit is part of it but our relative decline goes back to what happened after the GFC with George ‘austerity’ Osborne's Plan A. Or even further back to the decades after the war. Investment has always been a dirty word for our ruling classes.
Doctor's appointment actually cancelled. Got a message that to do that (contrary to the successful confirmation I received) I had to do it at the original surgery.
I know eagerly await the easing problem to become resurgent, and thus feel like a nincompoop.
Britain feels like the classic cartoon character running off a cliff. The sheer speed at which we were running - fuelled by the explosion of the Industrial Revolution and then the empire has ensured we’ve run really quite a long way for a small country - and we’ve run quite a distance over the edge - we’ve kept up the illusion for an impressively long time
But now the momentum has gone and we dangle in the air, legs whirring
In 2016 we were on the edge
Some people voted to jump
Brexit is part of it but our relative decline goes back to what happened after the GFC with George ‘austerity’ Osborne's Plan A. Or even further back to the decades after the war. Investment has always been a dirty word for our ruling classes.
That does ignore the political angle. If politicians had held the promised Lisbon referendum in 2007 or so then UKIP would not have gained popularity to the same degree and the situation would not have escalated.
Cameron was also very unlucky with the timing. It was the peak of the migrant crisis, but we didn't know that at the time.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
Ah, interesting. Rahmad!
I was surprised to learn this funny little fella is not a distinct species. But so it is. Cousin of the guys on Brownsea Island
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
What a coincidence that your wife's family knows Leon.
I wonder if Reform might have results like the Liberals did in the 60's; good local election results but poor GE ones. IIRC when one looked carefully at them, it appeared that Liberal voters, being converts and therefore enthusiastic, turned out in droves for the Locals, which meant good results, but when the General came less enthused Labour and Tory voters turned out, where they hadn't in the locals, and swamped the Liberal vote.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
Ah, interesting. Rahmad!
I was surprised to learn this funny little fella is not a distinct species. But so it is. Cousin of the guys on Brownsea Island
No American greys round there to bring squirrel pox, then.
Britain feels like the classic cartoon character running off a cliff. The sheer speed at which we were running - fuelled by the explosion of the Industrial Revolution and then the empire has ensured we’ve run really quite a long way for a small country - and we’ve run quite a distance over the edge - we’ve kept up the illusion for an impressively long time
But now the momentum has gone and we dangle in the air, legs whirring
In 2016 we were on the edge
Some people voted to jump
Brexit is part of it but our relative decline goes back to what happened after the GFC with George ‘austerity’ Osborne's Plan A. Or even further back to the decades after the war. Investment has always been a dirty word for our ruling classes.
I'd agree with the lack of investment argument. I'm increasingly of the opinion that George Osborne was a distinctly good chancellor, because a) he actually placed some importance on addressing the defecit (and, long term, debt), and actually shifted the dial on the former b) he actually saw the need for investment in infrastructure in the north and the opportunity for growth it presented. Despite being at the treasury for six years, he was never really captured by treasury no-investment-except-in-London mindset.
Britain feels like the classic cartoon character running off a cliff. The sheer speed at which we were running - fuelled by the explosion of the Industrial Revolution and then the empire has ensured we’ve run really quite a long way for a small country - and we’ve run quite a distance over the edge - we’ve kept up the illusion for an impressively long time
But now the momentum has gone and we dangle in the air, legs whirring
In 2016 we were on the edge
Some people voted to jump
Brexit is part of it but our relative decline goes back to what happened after the GFC with George ‘austerity’ Osborne's Plan A. Or even further back to the decades after the war. Investment has always been a dirty word for our ruling classes.
That does ignore the political angle. If politicians had held the promised Lisbon referendum in 2007 or so then UKIP would not have gained popularity to the same degree and the situation would not have escalated.
Cameron was also very unlucky with the timing. It was the peak of the migrant crisis, but we didn't know that at the time.
Who chose the timing, who wrote the binary question and who selected the minimum age of the voter cohort?
I wonder if Reform might have results like the Liberals did in the 60's; good local election results but poor GE ones. IIRC when one looked carefully at them, it appeared that Liberal voters, being converts and therefore enthusiastic, turned out in droves for the Locals, which meant good results, but when the General came less enthused Labour and Tory voters turned out, where they hadn't in the locals, and swamped the Liberal vote.
That may happen. It happened in the 70s and some extent early 80s as well. Though, once the party started taking councils, a critical mass occurred.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
I wonder if Reform might have results like the Liberals did in the 60's; good local election results but poor GE ones. IIRC when one looked carefully at them, it appeared that Liberal voters, being converts and therefore enthusiastic, turned out in droves for the Locals, which meant good results, but when the General came less enthused Labour and Tory voters turned out, where they hadn't in the locals, and swamped the Liberal vote.
The reason the Liberals/SDP got lots of good second places, but few seats was that the Conservatives finished on 42%, in 1983 and 1987 and 1992.
Had the Conservatives finished on say, 32%, the Alliance would have won a ton of seats, with their vote share.
25% or so will get Reform a shedload of seats, at both local and national level, if neither Labour nor Conservatives can build a decisive lead.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
On Cap Ferret?
Posh French designer squirrels 🐿️
More likely just illegal immigrants from small boats...
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
On Cap Ferret?
Posh French designer squirrels 🐿️
More likely just illegal immigrants from small boats...
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
I wonder if Reform might have results like the Liberals did in the 60's; good local election results but poor GE ones. IIRC when one looked carefully at them, it appeared that Liberal voters, being converts and therefore enthusiastic, turned out in droves for the Locals, which meant good results, but when the General came less enthused Labour and Tory voters turned out, where they hadn't in the locals, and swamped the Liberal vote.
The Liberals never got higher than 11% at a general election in the 1960s and Reform got 14% even at the last GE.
The Liberals are also better at pavement politics, leafletting on local issues and being a local government focused party than Reform who are more just a national party of protest so if anything the reverse. Indeed in Essex you will probably get some voters in areas like Chelmsford, Maldon and Brentwood and Epping Forest in future years who will vote LD locally but Reform nationally
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
After he sold his Mini, there was nothing more Dura-sensei could teach him.
Yes since the general election, Labour have given the impression they don't care about pensioners, farmers, business owners, NHS England workers, disabled welfare claimants etc.
It does not suggest they will get a great result at the local elections next week
Unfortunately, the numbers also suggest it won't be a good result for the Conservatives either.
Indeed, likely to lose 3 times as many seats.
Since they're starting from a much higher base its hardly surprising.
most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the general election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election. There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on 1 May under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame.
Badenoch may partly be saved by cancelled local elections in areas like Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk where Reform are strong. Had they gone ahead Reform would likely have won most council seats next Thursday but instead the Conservatives should still win most seats
It will be a weird set of results. A notable shift from left to right, compared to 2021, but a notable shift against the Conservatives.
Though of course Farage is right even of Johnson and arguably so is Kemi and as you say Labour will also lose votes and seats
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
I am down on the IoW this week and the reds here vary considerably in colour, from ginger to nearly black.
Reds in mainland Europe are less shy, and I have seen them in urban parks in Hamburg and Moscow. They are finer and more delicate than our introduced grey bushy tailed tree rats.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
Should they get control of councils, I don't think running them calamitously will be particularly bad for the Fukkers. All councils seem to be remorseless engines of dysfunction and Farage will be able to blame the woke brigade or just tell everyone they are being run brilliantly. His reality distortion field isn't at Trump's level but it is there.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
This level of "analysis" is why the Liberal Democrats aren't in power.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
Should they get control of councils, I don't think running them calamitously will be particularly bad for the Fukkers. All councils seem to be remorseless engines of dysfunction and Farage will be able to blame the woke brigade or just tell everyone they are being run brilliantly. His reality distortion field isn't at Trump's level but it is there.
They'll have GBNews, the Mail and the Telegraph explaining how well they are doing in local government and that should keep them on track for the ultimate victory. And if that doesn't work they can always resurrect 5* migrant hotels and the toilet habits of trans people.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
After he sold his Mini, there was nothing more Dura-sensei could teach him.
And yet the big picture is that the government is borrowing about £2000 per person per year. I suspect that there isn't a way of closing that gap that can be perceived as "caring".
The only question is how to distribute the pain, but good luck getting a mandate for that.
At £151bn for the last financial year it is more like £2,200 for every man, women (let's not get bogged down in that again) and child in the country. And its likely to go up given the assumptions of growth and productivity built into the current assessment. Because we are "rich". And entitled. And delusional.
We are heading for the IMF
They make good sofas.
But this Government will manage to go the one day of the year there's no sale on...
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
Should they get control of councils, I don't think running them calamitously will be particularly bad for the Fukkers. All councils seem to be remorseless engines of dysfunction and Farage will be able to blame the woke brigade or just tell everyone they are being run brilliantly. His reality distortion field isn't at Trump's level but it is there.
Being a councillor seems to be a hospital pass to me: you get all the accountability but none of thr power.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
This level of "analysis" is why the Liberal Democrats aren't in power.
The party that ran on a "stop the boats" manifesto at the last general election suffered a historically bad defeat.
This is, without question, the finest squirrel I have ever seen
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
Red squirrels coats and ear tufts grow in the winter, and moult in the late spring to a much thinner summer coat. Rather than being indicative of the sub-species those ear tufts are a feature of the local climate.
On Cap Ferrat I found a small colony of black ones which are apparently reds which have become black. They're not uncommon apparently.
On Cap Ferret?
Posh French designer squirrels 🐿️
They're certainly posh. They don't let you get anywhere near them and they spend all their time up Somerset Maugham's trees. Give me the common Greys anyday. They might eat peas with their knife but at least they'll climb all over you
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial
You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.
Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
My dad's company used to run a little fleet of diggers: mainly JCB's, but he moved to Case in the early nineties. Last week he got to sit in a band-new JCB for the first time in nearly three decades. Aside from the ability to change buckets without getting out of the cab - a capability that was just coming in when he sold up - the tech has not massively changed. You will not be digging a trench much faster in one of the modern machines than one of the old ones.
But the cab has changed massively. It is far more comfortable than it was in the nineties, and there are a host of large and small changes that would make the modern machine far superior. even simple things like good air conditioning, when the large glass cabs would become an oven in summer, meaning you needed to open the windows with all the dirt and dust. The price has gone up above inflation, but he says that the new machines are so much better for the operator.
But they will not get the job done that much faster (bucket changing excepted...)
Perhaps this will see more ladies in diggers, like it did with bus drivers (a trend that might be threatened by misogynist LibDems wanting them to confront passengers over phone use – unforeseen consequences and all that).
It also might get the job done faster because the operator is more comfortable and therefore more efficient, not needing to take so many breaks etc. The effects of overheating and dehydration are likely to lead to the operator working slower by the end of the day
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
They might have happen to them what happened to the Greens in Brighton - people are keener on the theory than the practice and buyers' regret swiftly follows....
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.
Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
I have a council by-election in an otherwise suspended election and can't remember any leaflets, just a copy of the normal Lib Dem and Tory newsletters. Reform are standing, but haven't seen or heard anything of them. Having said that, it is a pretty safe LD seat
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.
Should they get control of councils, I don't think running them calamitously will be particularly bad for the Fukkers. All councils seem to be remorseless engines of dysfunction and Farage will be able to blame the woke brigade or just tell everyone they are being run brilliantly. His reality distortion field isn't at Trump's level but it is there.
Being a councillor seems to be a hospital pass to me: you get all the accountability but none of thr power.
Decent expenses for a City, County Borough, Borough or District councillor. So long as you ensure the bins are emptied you'll be fine.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
This level of "analysis" is why the Liberal Democrats aren't in power.
The party that ran on a "stop the boats" manifesto at the last general election suffered a historically bad defeat.
Because they failed to do it. Not because people don't give a shit how many infiltrate across the Channel.
What we're seeing here is pure cognitive dissonance.
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.
Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
After he sold his Mini, there was nothing more Dura-sensei could teach him.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial
You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
£5Bn is 0.42% of government expenditure.
Hardly an avalanche of money…
£5bn a year can't simply be shrugged off, and is significant. It's near enough a penny on income tax.
The issue here is both the lack of control, the cost, and the perception the rights of asylum seekers are better guarded than those of domestic citizens.
Liberals dismiss it all because they don't like or agree with borders anyway.
Posh Bishkek cafes do REALLY good coffee. Indeed this is true across Central Asia and all the three stans I’ve seen on this trip
Superb coffee. They take it very seriously. Also the baristas are great at foam art
Hopefully, this will provoke a discussion, extensive in both scope and duration, from other contributors on cups of coffee that they have enjoyed. Or perhaps not enjoyed relative to other cups of coffee.
Or you could regale us with your latest explorations of cars and their various models, iterations, braking systems, and arcane associated acronyms, causing you to be cleverly and mercilessly parodied and humiliated by @Casino_Royale to the extent you then sobbingly and angrily flounce out of the forum saying “you’re not funny. You don’t know what funny is. Only I’m funny. ONLY I AM FUNNY”
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?
If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial
You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
£5Bn is 0.42% of government expenditure.
Hardly an avalanche of money…
£5bn a year can't simply be shrugged off, and is significant. It's near enough a penny on income tax.
The issue here is both the lack of control, the cost, and the perception the rights of asylum seekers are better guarded than those of domestic citizens.
Liberals dismiss it all because they don't like or agree with borders anyway.
Yes, the money is huge, but is because of the policy of warehousing asylum seekers rather than processing the applicants. People lose their right to accommodation after the determination of their application, whether granted or refused. At that point they become homeless or deported.
So to cut the financial and political cost the best approach is to process applicants more speedily and to deport those refused asylum. That is broadly what the current government is attempting, the warehousing being a legacy of the last governments policy.
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
You missed the moment last night where, with two delicate, equipoised sentences, I stopped the entire site banging on about trans and Canada and got everyone to talk about my chosen subject of cheese. For three hours
Many of us were glad of an excuse to divert the discussion from trans. I would like trans discussion to be treated like AI discussion, i.e. banned.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end
Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)
1. Antarctic Peninsula Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe
2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier) Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle
3. The Dolomites Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock
4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too) Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty
5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands) Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse
6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon
7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea
8. Alps around Chamonix Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier
9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye) Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl
10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea
Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
I want them to win control of a few councils. They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then. Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.
Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
I have a council by-election in an otherwise suspended election and can't remember any leaflets, just a copy of the normal Lib Dem and Tory newsletters. Reform are standing, but haven't seen or heard anything of them. Having said that, it is a pretty safe LD seat
Quite a vigorous Reform effort in terms of leaflets in the two wards in Oxfordshire that I'm working in (no idea if they're paid deliveries or volunteers), and a good many classically floating voters I think (hard to be sure as the response is typically "not you") inclined to give them a try as they've tried everyone else. Farage spoke at a well-attended meeting in another ward. It's quite a decent effort from a new party and I'd expect them to emerge with a decent share of votes and seats but they're doing very little actual canvassing. The Tories hold both seats and are finally getting leaflets out and doing a bit of canvassing, but it's hard to see them holding the seats. Overall I expect a good Reform night, a bad Tory one and Labour more or less marking time, except where there are defectors (e.g. Broxtowe, where the whole established Labour team has been ejected).
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial
You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
£5Bn is 0.42% of government expenditure.
Hardly an avalanche of money…
£5bn a year can't simply be shrugged off, and is significant. It's near enough a penny on income tax.
The issue here is both the lack of control, the cost, and the perception the rights of asylum seekers are better guarded than those of domestic citizens.
Liberals dismiss it all because they don't like or agree with borders anyway.
Yes, the money is huge, but is because of the policy of warehousing asylum seekers rather than processing the applicants. People lose their right to accommodation after the determination of their application, whether granted or refused. At that point they become homeless or deported.
So to cut the financial and political cost the best approach is to process applicants more speedily and to deport those refused asylum. That is broadly what the current government is attempting, the warehousing being a legacy of the last governments policy.
That's part of it. The other part is that at present far too many qualify, fuelling numbers: if you cross the channel you're very likely to get asylum if you play your cards right. Because the rights are so broad, and legal advice highly accessible, so you can launch endless appeals.
So the criteria and appeals process needs tightening too.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
How people perceive themselves can be very different from reality. After all, he served as a MARINE for four years, and we all know that they spit bullets. Even if he was in a non-combat role.
I think we all know someone whose perception of their own IQ is *way* off...
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
"I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."
They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.
Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.
I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there
Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
"Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?
If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end
Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)
1. Antarctic Peninsula Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe
2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier) Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle
3. The Dolomites Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock
4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too) Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty
5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands) Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse
6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon
7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea
8. Alps around Chamonix Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier
9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye) Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl
10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea
Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.
lol. Yes
A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
That's essentially the MAGA argument. Brainless.
What the fuck are you on about? I’m just truthfully describing the UK Labour government. It’s got fuck all to do with Trump or MAGA you pig faced halfwit
Instead of your unreadable rants why not learn from Dura_Ace. In two lines he managed what you never can because you're not funny or cutting. He showed you how to do it in one two line post.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
After he sold his Mini, there was nothing more Dura-sensei could teach him.
You could have tried tucking a few tips in the art of understatement into his wing mirror
Comments
People openly ask why so much of the UK is owned by foreigners, if they'd heard £2bn of trade deficit announced month after month after month after month they might have some idea why that was so.
So good news for Labour.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
It’s understandable that Conservatives would want to stick it to Starmer’s Labour after the Supreme Court’s ruling on the meaning of sex in the Equality Act. Labour has supplied the Tories a target-rich environment, from David “men can have a cervix” Lammy, to Dawn “a child is born without a sex” Butler, and Stella “some women have penises” Creasy. Towering over them all in his moral failure is the supreme political coward himself, the Prime Minister — a man who loves talking about all the terribly difficult decisions he has to take as PM, how he’s “country before party”, how he’s so much better than the rest of us — but is too scared to say boo to the trans activist radicals in his own party, or to say anything at all to former Labour MP Rosie Duffield who was hounded out of Labour for views which now, apparently, the government has always shared.
Yes, the Labour Party deserves a thoroughly good kicking — and Badenoch, whose record on these issues is stellar, has the moral right to deliver it.
But the decade of gender madness which might now, hopefully, be drawing to a close, was not begun by Labour.
https://thecritic.co.uk/labour-didnt-start-the-gender-madness/
most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the general election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election. There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on 1 May under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/04/if-labour-ran-an-easter-egg-hunt-the-eggs-would-be-tiny-and-youd-have-to-give-half-of-them-back/
Sadly I have to work today, so don't have the time to trade insults with the brainless.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1915290778437398696
Sky's @WilfredFrost questions the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on whether UK gas prices would decrease if the tax rate of 78% on energy companies was lowered by the government.
I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.
https://x.com/Artemisfornow/status/1915305108423741678
It's an odd feeling as one tootles along in a vaguely progressive haze to suddenly get singed by a sudden flare of hard/new/alt/far right certainty, sometimes by people you think you know quite well. Getting more common unfortunately, though very much generational in my experience. More worrying if/when the youngsters start spouting this bollocks I suppose.
(For those who missed it it's timed at 8.02).
Another day of the usual suspects "talking down Britain" - there was a time when such activity was widely frowned on by elements of the media and the supporters of the Government of the day.
Elsewhere - trying to read the Canadian election runes from the polling isn't easy.
This morning, we have the latest from Innovative Research (fieldwork 15/4-22/4), whose five point CPC lead from two days ago is looking a bit of an outlier. They poll online and today's offering has the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 38 each with the NDP doing better than some other polls suggest on 12.
The daily Liason Research rolling poll has the smallest Liberal lead for a week at just three points (42-39). Mainstreet's daily rolling poll has the biggest Liberal lead for a week also at three points (also 42-39).
The regional sub samples are also all over the place. Innovative has the Conservatives ahead in Ontario but according to Liason:
The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada (+7), Quebec (+15, with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois tied at 24% for second), Ontario (+8), and British Columbia (+1).
If those numbers are correct, it's going to be very hard for Poilievre to form even a minority Government. Piling up votes on the Prairies does him and the CPC no good - once again, worth stating 199 of the 338 ridings are in Ontario and Quebec.
Early indications suggest a high turnout of advance voting - Canadian voter turnout is usually in the 60s per cent and in 2021 was 67%. There's not been a turnout above 70% since 2000 but I suspect this may be a high turnout contest. Who does that favour? No idea.
They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8g2kpzx0go
I'd cough up a considerable sum of money not to have a 'private' dinner with Donald Trump. Urgh.
What he may be saying is the Orthodox church is the last true bastion of conservative white Christianity, though the southern Baptist church also largely is still aligned that way
My dad's company used to run a little fleet of diggers: mainly JCB's, but he moved to Case in the early nineties. Last week he got to sit in a band-new JCB for the first time in nearly three decades. Aside from the ability to change buckets without getting out of the cab - a capability that was just coming in when he sold up - the tech has not massively changed. You will not be digging a trench much faster in one of the modern machines than one of the old ones.
But the cab has changed massively. It is far more comfortable than it was in the nineties, and there are a host of large and small changes that would make the modern machine far superior. even simple things like good air conditioning, when the large glass cabs would become an oven in summer, meaning you needed to open the windows with all the dirt and dust. The price has gone up above inflation, but he says that the new machines are so much better for the operator.
But they will not get the job done that much faster (bucket changing excepted...)
It's more likely this is a subject not to "bang on about" as someone once said about their party and Europe.
No one has the foggiest idea what will happen at the next GE - trying to use the polls now to extrapolate what will happen in 2028 or 2029 is futile. I see some Tories quite like the idea of being the junior partner in a Reform-Conservative coalition Government. The irony of the Tories going through as a junior partner in a coalition what happened to the LDs would be just too much.
Some people voted to jump
RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
He is apparently a Himalayan subspecies of the classic Eurasian red squirrel. But if so, he is a lordly subspecies. Those tufted ears!
(There would have to be an exclusion clause though in the case that you were imprisoned in the US)
Doctor's appointment actually cancelled. Got a message that to do that (contrary to the successful confirmation I received) I had to do it at the original surgery.
I know eagerly await the easing problem to become resurgent, and thus feel like a nincompoop.
Cameron was also very unlucky with the timing. It was the peak of the migrant crisis, but we didn't know that at the time.
I was surprised to learn this funny little fella is not a distinct species. But so it is. Cousin of the guys on Brownsea Island
1⃣ we won't go bust (a sovereign state borrowing in its own currency can always service its debts)
2⃣ we won't need the IMF again (the 1976 bailout was a $ loan to prop up the £, which is not the issue today)
https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1915323720324747764
I wonder if Reform might have results like the Liberals did in the 60's; good local election results but poor GE ones. IIRC when one looked carefully at them, it appeared that Liberal voters, being converts and therefore enthusiastic, turned out in droves for the Locals, which meant good results, but when the General came less enthused Labour and Tory voters turned out, where they hadn't in the locals, and swamped the Liberal vote.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that George Osborne was a distinctly good chancellor, because
a) he actually placed some importance on addressing the defecit (and, long term, debt), and actually shifted the dial on the former
b) he actually saw the need for investment in infrastructure in the north and the opportunity for growth it presented. Despite being at the treasury for six years, he was never really captured by treasury no-investment-except-in-London mindset.
Cameron bound his own hands and feet.
I don't think the fascists are at that stage yet.
They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.
The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?
We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
Had the Conservatives finished on say, 32%, the Alliance would have won a ton of seats, with their vote share.
25% or so will get Reform a shedload of seats, at both local and national level, if neither Labour nor Conservatives can build a decisive lead.
Posh French designer squirrels 🐿️
I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
The Liberals are also better at pavement politics, leafletting on local issues and being a local government focused party than Reform who are more just a national party of protest so if anything the reverse. Indeed in Essex you will probably get some voters in areas like Chelmsford, Maldon and Brentwood and Epping Forest in future years who will vote LD locally but Reform nationally
Reds in mainland Europe are less shy, and I have seen them in urban parks in Hamburg and Moscow. They are finer and more delicate than our introduced grey bushy tailed tree rats.
These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
Hardly an avalanche of money…
Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
What we're seeing here is pure cognitive dissonance.
https://youtu.be/-P11Bcpyw4g?si=sjLaW23tjC1I3An-
The issue here is both the lack of control, the cost, and the perception the rights of asylum seekers are better guarded than those of domestic citizens.
Liberals dismiss it all because they don't like or agree with borders anyway.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
So to cut the financial and political cost the best approach is to process applicants more speedily and to deport those refused asylum. That is broadly what the current government is attempting, the warehousing being a legacy of the last governments policy.
Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)
1. Antarctic Peninsula
Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe
2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle
3. The Dolomites
Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock
4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty
5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse
6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon
7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea
8. Alps around Chamonix
Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier
9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl
10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea
Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
So the criteria and appeals process needs tightening too.
I think we all know someone whose perception of their own IQ is *way* off...