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Not the polling Labour need with next week’s elections coming up – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,536
    Scott_xP said:

    @acnewsitics

    Trump: U.S. doing very well on trade deal with China.

    China: That's a lie, we never even spoke to you.

    https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1915371463978476031

    Watching Trump and Xi duke it out is a bit like watching a wasp landing on a stinging nettle.

    You hope they both get stung to death, because it will be very funny.

    The damage to the world economy is a bit of a bugger in this case, of course.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi did rather well at PMQ's yesterday, didn't she?

    Perhaps her best outing as LOTO so far?

    Sir Kier all over the place (bit like Labour's position on trans/sex/gender/, etc)

    It was a classic case of not answering the questions asked, although the questions asked were along the lines of "Do you agree you are weak?", "Why are you scared to say what you really think?" etc
    I thought Kier was silly not to take the opportunity not to reach out across the chamber to Rosie. Blair would have done so (but then again Blair wouldn't have got himself into such a pickle over whether a man can have a cervix in the first place, lol)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    Kaboom
    Find out now! So no kaboom.
    More in Common had Ref UK 25%, Con and Lab 23% each, Lib Dem 14%, Green 8%.

    That gives 223 RefUK, 174 Lab, 133 Con, 55 Lib Dem, 4 Green.

    All polls now put RefUK in the lead, so I expect they'll have a very good result next Thursday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,111
    Trump only hires the best people...

    https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1915367307347476585
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @acnewsitics

    Trump: U.S. doing very well on trade deal with China.

    China: That's a lie, we never even spoke to you.

    https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1915371463978476031

    Watching Trump and Xi duke it out is a bit like watching a wasp landing on a stinging nettle.

    You hope they both get stung to death, because it will be very funny.

    The damage to the world economy is a bit of a bugger in this case, of course.
    The thing is China isn’t doing anything beyond sitting there watching the US panic.

    There are stories that Chinese / us shipping is down 60% and that will mean Costco and Walmarts selves will be relatively beat come June, if that extends Christmas with empty shelves and few Christmas presents for sale will be fun for Trump
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi did rather well at PMQ's yesterday, didn't she?

    Perhaps her best outing as LOTO so far?

    Sir Kier all over the place (bit like Labour's position on trans/sex/gender/, etc)

    Yes, her best outing yet. But it was like a home game against weak opposition - on her favourite subject. It remains to be seen whether she can replicate her incisiveness on more substantive issues than this particular culture war.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi did rather well at PMQ's yesterday, didn't she?

    Perhaps her best outing as LOTO so far?

    Sir Kier all over the place (bit like Labour's position on trans/sex/gender/, etc)

    It was a classic case of not answering the questions asked, although the questions asked were along the lines of "Do you agree you are weak?", "Why are you scared to say what you really think?" etc
    I thought Kier was silly not to take the opportunity not to reach out across the chamber to Rosie. Blair would have done so (but then again Blair wouldn't have got himself into such a pickle over whether a man can have a cervix in the first place, lol)
    I am sure that if an official review, or the Supreme Court, explicitly says "Rosie Duffield was right about the trans thing" Sir Keir will express in no uncertain terms that this has brought much needed clarity to the issue
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564
    edited 2:20PM
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    Kaboom
    Find out now! So no kaboom.
    They were the first pollsters to discover that Labour were more likely to poll 33% than the 45% the others misled us into believing, albeit they overestimated Reform as well
    Labour a point behind now on an all pollster average with a 1 month cut off and within a breath of crossover even if you chose to exclude FON. The trend suggests Reform will lead even without FON in the next week:

    Ref 24.9
    Labour 23.9
    Con 22.1
    LD 14
    Grn 9
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited 2:21PM

    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi did rather well at PMQ's yesterday, didn't she?

    Perhaps her best outing as LOTO so far?

    Sir Kier all over the place (bit like Labour's position on trans/sex/gender/, etc)

    Yes, her best outing yet. But it was like a home game against weak opposition - on her favourite subject. It remains to be seen whether she can replicate her incisiveness on more substantive issues than this particular culture war.
    Apparently (I wasn't even born at the time) it took Mrs Thatcher around six months or so get into her stride as LOTO :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,286

    DM_Andy said:

    Foxy said:

    Ratters said:

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
    I'm generally in agreement with you, but here is where I'm going to strongly disagree.

    People should be able to dress how they want, within laws on public decency, regardless of their sex. What does cross dressing even mean? Women can wear suits, is that cross dressing? Why should men not be able to do the reverse and wear traditionally female clothing? As for a hospital setting, everyone is in scrubs in any case.

    A patient should be able to request someone of their same sex treats them and staff members respect that. That has no bearing on how staff choose to present themselves.

    People do not have a right to know what sex someone is by looking at them. That's just ridiculous and infringing on the rights of men and women everywhere to dress how they see fit.
    I agree people should be free to be whoever they believe they are - I don’t subscribe to gender identity theory.
    How do you reconcile those two sentences? If people believe they are gender misaligned to their biological sex, and a significant number of people do, shouldn't they be free to be who they think they are?

    It is at least as offensive to "gay away the Trans" as to "Trans away the gay" why can't both exist?
    They can - when they are adults.

    “Transing away the gay” referred to children at the Tavistock.

    What did you think of the Cass review?
    What do you think of the Cass review? Let's take puberty blockers. The Cass Review said that the clinical evidence supporting using blockers for children with gender dysphoria was weak so they should only be prescribed as part of a clinical trial. Do you support there being a clinical trial on if puberty blockers save children's lives? Because Sex Matters have successfully blocked the clinical trial that was meant to start over a year ago.
    SexMatters do not have the power to block a clinical trial - if they have asked questions clinicians have been unable to answer that’s down to clinicians.
    Some gender critical people, including James Esses, are planning to launch a judicial review against it

    * https://xcancel.com/MrMennoTweets/status/1904191234366652833

    The study is still proceeding and is in the recruitment phase

    * https://fundingawards.nihr.ac.uk/award/NIHR167530
    * https://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMK461/research-assistant-pathways-study-based-in-warrington
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    (narrator: when Leon refers to "Gibbon" it's a reference to the historian Edward Gibbon, not the long-armed furry ape. Try not to confuse the two, especially in a library)
    How long would it take a thousand gibbons on typewriters to produce a balanced, non-hysterical piece on the state of things for the Spectator?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,286
    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    Fuuuuuuck... :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664

    NEW THREAD

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    GIN1138 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    The day we get a '1' on the front of that tory number is going to be terrific.
    You would rather have a REF government than a Tory one?
    Absolutely. They are intrinsically more entertaining in the same way that Trump is preferable to Weekend at Biden's.

    In government the tories managed to make themselves hated by one half of the country by doing brexit and then, and this is the good bit, they then made themselves hated by the other half by doing the brexitwave immigration explosion.

    They are dismal, boring and pointless with a terrible leader who is permanently irritated by everything except alt-right social media.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited 2:37PM
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi did rather well at PMQ's yesterday, didn't she?

    Perhaps her best outing as LOTO so far?

    Sir Kier all over the place (bit like Labour's position on trans/sex/gender/, etc)

    It was a classic case of not answering the questions asked, although the questions asked were along the lines of "Do you agree you are weak?", "Why are you scared to say what you really think?" etc
    I thought Kier was silly not to take the opportunity not to reach out across the chamber to Rosie. Blair would have done so (but then again Blair wouldn't have got himself into such a pickle over whether a man can have a cervix in the first place, lol)
    I am sure that if an official review, or the Supreme Court, explicitly says "Rosie Duffield was right about the trans thing" Sir Keir will express in no uncertain terms that this has brought much needed clarity to the issue
    Talking of lovely Rosie Duffield here's Victoria Derbyshire on once-serious Newsnight asking Rosie whether she bears any "responsibility" for the fact a man identifying as a woman is upset after the Supreme Court reaffirmed the fact he is a biological man... 🤦‍♂️

    https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1915176760842371124
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,286
    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-23rd-april-2025/
    https://xcancel.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1915399486001512588#m
    https://bsky.app/profile/leftiestats.bsky.social

    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-23rd-april-2025/
    https://xcancel.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1915399486001512588#m
    https://bsky.app/profile/leftiestats.bsky.social

    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Gradually we ease our way back to our Tory/Whig roots?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    eek said:

    I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!
    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114392923237368367

    At some point it will dawn on Trump that Putin doesn’t want the war in the Ukraine to end…
    Trump doesn't care. He only wants not to be involved and not to be blamed for what happens next.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,499
    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1915369630815928461

    Gas and grocery prices are WAY DOWN, just like I said they would be. Eggs are plentiful, and down 87%. NICE!

    You should be censured for reposting Trump bollocks.

    Reliable citation needed.
    It appears they are now being sold for $10 a dozen in some stores, although the wholesale price is down a bit on March when they hit record highs (I'm assuming that will take time to work through the system).
    If they are $10 a dozen that means they were originally at $80 a dozen if they have dropped in price by 87%!!

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Phil said:

    Ratters said:

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
    I'm generally in agreement with you, but here is where I'm going to strongly disagree.

    People should be able to dress how they want, within laws on public decency, regardless of their sex. What does cross dressing even mean? Women can wear suits, is that cross dressing? Why should men not be able to do the reverse and wear traditionally female clothing? As for a hospital setting, everyone is in scrubs in any case.

    A patient should be able to request someone of their same sex treats them and staff members respect that. That has no bearing on how staff choose to present themselves.

    People do not have a right to know what sex someone is by looking at them. That's just ridiculous and infringing on the rights of men and women everywhere to dress how they see fit.
    The end state of TERFism is the rigid enforcement of the gender presentation & dress of women.

    It gives me no joy whatsoever to be predicting more attacks on non-feminine presenting women as a consequence of the rise of anti-trans rhetoric following the SC judgement.
    I dunno. As a man who doesn't fit traditional male stereotypes I've always felt that the ideology of some trans advocates has threatened my identity as a non-traditional male. Something they have in common with the right-wing bigots.

    Terfs have never threatened my identity in the same way.
    I find your comment interesting - "As a man who doesn't fit traditional male stereotypes". There are surely many, many male stereotypes. Are you suggesting that the traditional ones would be 'manly' (strong, sporty, tough guy etc)?
    I'm thinking lads, banter, cars, bbq sort of thing.

    My wife is the more expert on car maintenance than me, but if we ever take the car together to some place people will default to talking to me about it, as though I know the first thing. But I know enough about knitting to be able to translate patterns from French.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!
    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114392923237368367

    Yesterday he was saying Russia was ready for peace. He's so full of crap.

    This is all a performance so that he can walk away from supporting Ukraine and not be blamed for the consequences.

    This is rapidly becoming existential for Europe now. If Europe isn't able to defend a European democracy from Russian attack then European democracy cannot survive..
    That's an odd framing. It's not democracy under attack but Ukraine specifically and our constitutional arrangements don't depend on the position of Russia's borders.
    Constitutions only exist because people believe in them. If Europe fails to defend Ukraine then it leads to a massive loss of self-belief in the ability of European democracy to defend itself against the authoritarians, and conversely it emboldens the authoritarians to push democracies around.
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