A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
Best prices - Most Seats
Lab 8/11 (Betfair, Stan James) Con 11/8 (winner.com) UKIP 200/1 (sportingbet) LD 333/1 (Betfair)
@dyedwoolie - The betting history on Berwick is quite interesting. Paddy Power put a market up a while back and had it as a highly likely Con gain (1/3 if I remember correctly). Then Shadsy came in with a completely different view - I got on at Evens. It's now settled down at 8/11.
FWIW I think this a rare case where Paddy got it right and Shadsy got it wrong - 1/3 is about right IMO.
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
What I am finding a little odd is that the tories are so close with UKIP still in double figures. I seem to recall reading that was impossible.
That said, I agree that the Labour share is the more important figure. The 35% strategy looks set to be tested to destruction.
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
It's only one poll. But the Labour share is more important to track than the lead. And it does seem to have dropped since the budget.
Yup, it's the share stupid. No need for Labour to panic, though they will, but it is definitely a cause for concern.
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
What I am finding a little odd is that the tories are so close with UKIP still in double figures. I seem to recall reading that was impossible.
That said, I agree that the Labour share is the more important figure. The 35% strategy looks set to be tested to destruction.
And if, as we saw from the previous thread, UKIP voters are primarily 2010 Tories, it is quite a strong position to be in, if they can be wooed back.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 8s SUNDERLAND ST ANNES RESULT (LAB HOLD) LAB 48% UKIP 28% CON 18% GREEN 6%
Terrific result there for UKIP. From nothing to 28%. That is never an easy task.
And it seems to have come mostly from Labour. The Con vote held up pretty well.
Can't be, all the Kippers come from Tory votes, the polls say so. The Tories must have found another 18% somewhere and the lab drop is down to Thatcher being evil
Just made my first SNP seat bet. 4-1 for Inverness Bairn, Strathspey
You'd have been better betting on Nairn
SNP 4/1 is value.
One of my claims to fame is that I was nearly the PPC for that seat, many moons ago. I know the constituency like the back of my hand.
Surbiton Exactly right, even were Scotland to secede the impact on elections in the rest of the UK would be nowhere near as significant as suggested in some quarters
@dyedwoolie - The betting history on Berwick is quite interesting. Paddy Power put a market up a while back and had it as a highly likely Con gain (1/3 if I remember correctly). Then Shadsy came in with a completely different view - I got on at Evens. It's now settled down at 8/11.
FWIW I think this a rare case where Paddy got it right and Shadsy got it wrong - 1/3 is about right IMO.
Got about £170 on at 5/6 with Laddies. Some 2/1 on the Lib Dems through a 'friend' with Stan James.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Tonight's 11% LD share from YouGov for the May Euros is best from firm since Jan 2013. The debate affect?
That's funny. The Lib Dem vote jumps 1 point from bugger all to slightly more than bugger all and OGH tries to claim it is a bounce from the debate. The UKIP vote jumps 3 points and puts them back in second place and it doesn't get a mention.
If cross over did occur this far out I think Labour could really implode. There can't be much keeping the majority of Labour loyal to Ed than a desperate desire to win..
I think you might be right. The Labour grassroots are extremely unhappy with the Tory-lite policies that the leadership are coming out with, especially on public spending and welfare (which makes the deluded media's shrieking of "Red Ed!!!!11" even more amusing), and have only been keeping quiet because the leadership kept insisting it was the only way of getting elected. If policies that the party doesn't like don't look like they'll even succeed in winning an election then you can bet it will all start coming out. Ed has to either start moving towards proper Labour policies, start making the argument for public spending rather than this surplus crap and stop pandering to the mythical "centre-ground" (i.e. what the establishment wants rather than what the actual swing voters want), or hope the polls at the moment are just a temporary blip.
@richardnabavi Yeah, that's about right, I'd take 1/3 expecting a 2-3000 majority. Movement is key from 2010. Harrogate and Knaresborough is the template. But then I'm just a spammer apparently.
Some interesting stuff for those betting on Rand and for the forthcoming GOP Circus #2.
Tea Party icon Rand Paul turns to establishment Republicans for 2016 help
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is courting establishment Republicans in his bid to take the Tea Party into the White House.
In the midst of a so-called "civil war" within the party, Paul is hoping his conciliatory moves won't alienate his own base, while potential rivals such as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, opt for confrontation. His campaign thinks this approach will keep him from being the establishment target in a GOP primary.
"I don't think he will be the top choice of everyone in a primary, but I also think he won't have quite the number of people trying to stop him that some others may have had who came through a similar path in the past,” Doug Stafford, executive director of RAND PAC, told the Washington Examiner. “If he runs, he will be the first choice of a significant portion of the voters and an acceptable one to many others. And that's important.” That strategy has played out most notably in Paul's endorsement of his fellow Kentuckian, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, over Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin.
“It’s really great,” McConnell said when asked of his relationship with Paul. Why? “He supported me for reelection, which I appreciate."
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who called Paul a “wacko bird” last year in response to the younger senator's filibuster against President Obama's drone program policy, is now willing to give Paul the kind of praise rarely applied by the Senate "old bulls" to Cruz, who is disliked by many colleagues.
Kippers are certainly hoovering up the protest vote (and yes some who like them for them) Who does that damage more at a GE? The party relying on the protest, surely.
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
It's only one poll. But the Labour share is more important to track than the lead. And it does seem to have dropped since the budget.
Yup, it's the share stupid. No need for Labour to panic, though they will, but it is definitely a cause for concern.
Of the share, how much do you think is wasted votes in the south retaken from Lib Dem refuseniks? Think Tory wasted votes up north..... Genuine question, it must play into some of the vote, they are clearly regaining some southern votes but where it does no good.
Watching First ministers Questions Scotland ,loved when salmond replying to labours Jackie Baillie on the shoulder to shoulder with the tories,that a conservative coffee morning and the guest speaker Jackie Baillie ;-)
Salmond playing well on con/lab closeness and it's hurting Scottish labour.
If cross over did occur this far out I think Labour could really implode. There can't be much keeping the majority of Labour loyal to Ed than a desperate desire to win..
I think you might be right. The Labour grassroots are extremely unhappy with the Tory-lite policies that the leadership are coming out with, especially on public spending and welfare (which makes the deluded media's shrieking of "Red Ed!!!!11" even more amusing), and have only been keeping quiet because the leadership kept insisting it was the only way of getting elected. If policies that the party doesn't like don't look like they'll even succeed in winning an election then you can bet it will all start coming out. Ed has to either start moving towards proper Labour policies, start making the argument for public spending rather than this surplus crap and stop pandering to the mythical "centre-ground" (i.e. what the establishment wants rather than what the actual swing voters want), or hope the polls at the moment are just a temporary blip.
That is what some of my Scottish Labour friends have been saying. They get even more depressed when I point out that the cuts now pencilled in for the next Parliament which Labour is apparently signing up to (copying the Blair/Brown approach) are not only much more severe than anything seen in this Parliament but more severe than anything seen in living memory.
I am not saying there is an alternative, I don't actually think there is except in the blend of tax increases and cuts, but they desperately want one and they are not hearing anything from the Labour leadership to give them hope.
Beith is stepping down, MP since 73 Nailed on Con Gain
More Tory ramping with little local awareness. Yawn! This will be close but Beith didn't hold it for 40 years on an entirely personal vote.
yawn, look at the movement in 2010. Look at the lib dem polling since then. Yawn.
You've been spamming the site for two days with predictions that would add up to a 60 seat Con majority. That aint going to happen. Like so many Tories you don't seem to understand that in this day and age a GE is not a uniform swing but in 200 or so key seats an individual mini-election in which thousands of people, like me, will vote against a party, rather than for the one they favour. You are going to be sadly disappointed in your tedious predictions of wipeout for the yellow peril.
I'd prefer it if you didn't refer to.me as a spammer, I've been posting on pb on this, or a very similar name since 2008. You I do not recognise, probably some noobie that has shown up whilst I was otherwise engaged for 18 months. The party of government are 1% behind a year out, they are within MOE of winning a mid term election and I have posted my reasons for expecting the situation to improve for them. Berwick swung 8% to Tory in 2010, the incumbency effect for the 40 year MP is now going, the Lib Dems are polling half their 2010 vote. Saying the Tories will take the seat is not spam, it's simple political logic. Now, debate the point if you want, but if you just want to bleat because you disagree or flame people because you are sociopathic, go and find someone who gives a crap.
Oh,,and as part of my spamathon, I predicted Tory gvt NOM, not anything like a sixty seater. Don't confuse me with Ave It
I can vouch for the fact that Dyed Woolie has been an Honourable Member of the House of PB for many a year. He's no random "spammer".
Tories predictably beaten by UKIP to second place in Sunderland.
SUNDERLAND St Anne's
Jacqui GALLAGHER (Labour Party Candidate) 945 (48.1%) Aileen CASEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 555 (28.2%) Tony MORRISSEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 345 (17.6%) Emily BLYTH (Green Party) 120 (6.1%)
Why are Sunderland so often the quickest authority to declare a result? Do they simply employ more counting clerks?
Partly I think it's fairly densely populated, partly I think they enjoy trying to be first (while other seats aren't rushing the ballot boxes from polling station to counting room).
But I don't think even PB keeps stats on the number of counting clerks employed by each authority.
Going off on a total tangent, is anyone not a bit surprised that the Greens aren't performing better in the polls? Unusually, there are two hot-button issues which should be big selling points for them right now - flooding and fracking - but they don't seem to be going anywhere. Maybe they should've kept Caroline Lucas as leader.
Going off on a total tangent, is anyone not a bit surprised that the Greens aren't performing better in the polls? Unusually, there are two hot-button issues which should be big selling points for them right now - flooding and fracking - but they don't seem to be going anywhere. Maybe they should've kept Caroline Lucas as leader.
Yes, I've been a bit surprised by that - they seemed in fair shape a few months ago, but don't seem to have advanced. Caroline's court case (running at the moment) may give the oxygen of publicity again.
Going off on a total tangent, is anyone not a bit surprised that the Greens aren't performing better in the polls? Unusually, there are two hot-button issues which should be big selling points for them right now - flooding and fracking - but they don't seem to be going anywhere. Maybe they should've kept Caroline Lucas as leader.
Yes, I've been a bit surprised by that - they seemed in fair shape a few months ago, but don't seem to have advanced. Caroline's court case (running at the moment) may give the oxygen of publicity again.
And the thing about those two issues (flooding and fracking) is that they should theoretically draw in people who usually wouldn't give a thought to voting for the Greens. For example, the proposals for fracking in George Osborne's constituency in Cheshire (obviously pure Tory heartland) are going down very badly, and I would've thought that was the type of place where the Greens could potentially score a decent share of the vote at the next election if they raise their profile before then.
For example, the proposals for fracking in George Osborne's constituency in Cheshire (obviously pure Tory heartland) are going down very badly, and I would've thought that was the type of place where the Greens could potentially score a decent share of the vote at the next election if they raise their profile before then.
I'm not sure Tatton would be a good place to concentrate resources tbh.
"I am afraid Ed Milliband will not be the next prime minister, To even contemplate supporting Osborne's welfare cap is sacrilege ... Labour has lost it's way, It has forgotten it's roots."
"It now seems Labour has two major policies: 1) support the Tories and 2) keep quiet. With the passing of each day there appear to be fewer and fewer reasons to vote Labour."
"Good on the rebels, the real PLP! The cap is not only economically illiterate (you can't predict future demand and need flexibility for unforeseen events) it is yet another example of the LP leadership cravenly allowing the enemy to frame the dominant political discourse. Which means we end up fighting on their territory e.g. the tabloid 'dole scum' narrative. A case in point is our compulsory job guarantee policy. This is a potentially popular and truly radical policy, in effect the nearest thing to a guarantee of full employment. Yet it has been wrapped up in the mean spirited language of Duncan Stiff Toryism! No wonder we are flat-lining in the opinion polls; it happens with every lurch to the right. I truly despair at the miseducated, clueless, done nothing, technocrats who currently have the whip hand in our Party."
"Only 13 rebels against this inequitable and unworkable proposal. Shameful."
"Yet another pusillanimous capitulation in order to avoid embarrassment by a bad headline or two in the tabloids. Such behaviour, which would once have been incredibly disappointing, is pretty much expected these days and so somewhat less upsetting; Osborne pulls Labour's strings and sets the party dancing to his tune with next to no resistance.
Very briefly, Western intelligence circles are very very concerned at this point about possible next Russian moves. The old maxim that if a dictator moves a force thats is bigger than any bluff requires then they intend to use it seems to being applied.
Only one problem. Obama's speech on these matters appears to have Putin thinking he can keep on with the bravado.
You wonder whether the West will live to regret letting Putin think he nudge a bit further.
"Scientists believe they know where Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed into the ocean and that the cabin sank in one piece. The research by the University of Western Australia, using meteorological and ocean-current data alongside the British analysis from data “pings” recorded by UK firm Inmarsat, has determined the point of impact and the movements of debris in the weeks following the crash."
"I am afraid Ed Milliband will not be the next prime minister, To even contemplate supporting Osborne's welfare cap is sacrilege ... Labour has lost it's way, It has forgotten it's roots."
"It now seems Labour has two major policies: 1) support the Tories and 2) keep quiet. With the passing of each day there appear to be fewer and fewer reasons to vote Labour."
"Good on the rebels, the real PLP! The cap is not only economically illiterate (you can't predict future demand and need flexibility for unforeseen events) it is yet another example of the LP leadership cravenly allowing the enemy to frame the dominant political discourse. Which means we end up fighting on their territory e.g. the tabloid 'dole scum' narrative. A case in point is our compulsory job guarantee policy. This is a potentially popular and truly radical policy, in effect the nearest thing to a guarantee of full employment. Yet it has been wrapped up in the mean spirited language of Duncan Stiff Toryism! No wonder we are flat-lining in the opinion polls; it happens with every lurch to the right. I truly despair at the miseducated, clueless, done nothing, technocrats who currently have the whip hand in our Party."
"Only 13 rebels against this inequitable and unworkable proposal. Shameful."
"Yet another pusillanimous capitulation in order to avoid embarrassment by a bad headline or two in the tabloids. Such behaviour, which would once have been incredibly disappointing, is pretty much expected these days and so somewhat less upsetting; Osborne pulls Labour's strings and sets the party dancing to his tune with next to no resistance.
What a bunch of quislings and paper tigers."
How does Cameron do with his grassroots? His MPs tried to pass a law to force him to hold a referendum because they didn't trust him. That's a far worse problem.
The press have been pushing "Labour to implode" for 4 years. Supposedly there was going to be some massive split between supporters of Ed and David. That didn't happen. David cleared off.
Last year it was "Ed Miliband's bad summer"- they promptly went back into the lead again.
Last week it was "look there'll be a big rebellion on the welfare cap. that'll show how Miliband will be unable to govern". Rebellion of 13.
As it happens, the cap is worthless. Like Labour's legally binding child poverty targets. It'll just be "Oh we missed it. Oh well!" And nothing'll happen.
In any case, it'll collapse because of universal credit.
'He will pledge to set up a regulator to stop companies being "rolled" on to higher tariffs and forced to pay "crippling" back-dated bills.
The Labour leader will say the UK's energy market is "broken", with many firms lacking even "basic protections".'
Crippling bills? That can be blamed in part on all the lovely 'Green' extras - take a bow Ed Miliband, former Climate Secretary. As for broken energy markets, on who's watch were the Big 6 allowed to dominate proceedings? Oh yes, step forward again Mr Miliband.
He really is a twerp.
And supported by the other two parties. Twerps?
Ofgem are responsible for whether the market isn't working. They've implied pretty heavily it isn't.
For example, the proposals for fracking in George Osborne's constituency in Cheshire (obviously pure Tory heartland) are going down very badly, and I would've thought that was the type of place where the Greens could potentially score a decent share of the vote at the next election if they raise their profile before then.
I'm not sure Tatton would be a good place to concentrate resources tbh.
I went through Tatton a few years ago. You can smell the cash wafting in the air there.You could sense alot of Premier League footballer mansions around.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1 min So just 4% separates LAB, UKIP & CON in tonight's YouGov Euros poll. My money, at 10/1 is on Tories winning most votes
Cough.... not predictable....
If Scottish percentages are excluded it is a statistical tie surely in England ONLY between UKIP, Labour and Tories? Labour get 5 times the vote of UKIP in Scotland which makes adifference?
Stone (Dartford) Result: LAB - 37.7% (-3.8) CON - 35.1% (-11.0) UKIP - 27.2% (+27.2)
Vote UKIP get Lab......
UKIP has an important role to play in British politics. It represents a certain strand of opinion of the public whose democratic aspirations should be allowed to be expressed.
Television pictures of the budget were not shown in parts of Oxfordshire, Dartford [ S.London ] and Fylde !
So the pensioners did not see the good news ! In fact, they were told that their own miserable situation will not change one iota. Apparently, only those retiring from next year have been "liberated" .
Liberal bigotry never more in evidence than on QT tonight, my point proved
I think QT is a waste of time nowadays. If the audiences are an accurate reflection of the country and not just the political class then the country is doomed and if the audience aren't an accurate reflection then the audience is being rigged so either way it's just an exercise in depressing yourself.
Stone (Dartford) Result: LAB - 37.7% (-3.8) CON - 35.1% (-11.0) UKIP - 27.2% (+27.2)
Vote UKIP get Lab......
UKIP has an important role to play in British politics. It represents a certain strand of opinion of the public whose democratic aspirations should be allowed to be expressed.
UKIP is the vehicle for that expression.
I don't doubt that - just that UKIP voters will probably end up getting the reverse of what they wish for - a government with a relaxed attitùde to immigration and because it wants to stay in te EU no referendum on that either......
Liberal bigotry never more in evidence than on QT tonight, my point proved
I think QT is a waste of time nowadays. If the audiences are an accurate reflection of the country and not just the political class then the country is doomed and if the audience aren't an accurate reflection then the audience is being rigged so either way it's just an exercise in depressing yourself.
Didn't realise it was from Brighton. In that case no need to rig anything.
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
They want to be the Democrats - wwc voters are an anomaly.
Television pictures of the budget were not shown in parts of Oxfordshire, Dartford [ S.London ] and Fylde !
So the pensioners did not see the good news ! In fact, they were told that their own miserable situation will not change one iota. Apparently, only those retiring from next year have been "liberated" .
I think selective quoting of the results you like doesen't alter the fact that Labour have virtually no lead against an austerity government, whose budget changes they have largely endorsed. Just what is the point of Labour? Ukip are clearly taking up most of the protest vote for the moment from all sides - by no means clear that will persist beyond the Euros and it may not even last that long. If Ed fails to win big in May the knives will certainly be out.
Very briefly, Western intelligence circles are very very concerned at this point about possible next Russian moves. The old maxim that if a dictator moves a force thats is bigger than any bluff requires then they intend to use it seems to being applied.
Only one problem. Obama's speech on these matters appears to have Putin thinking he can keep on with the bravado.
You wonder whether the West will live to regret letting Putin think he nudge a bit further.
Cameron will regret asking Putin to get involved in his Better Together campaign.
Very briefly, Western intelligence circles are very very concerned at this point about possible next Russian moves. The old maxim that if a dictator moves a force thats is bigger than any bluff requires then they intend to use it seems to being applied.
Only one problem. Obama's speech on these matters appears to have Putin thinking he can keep on with the bravado.
You wonder whether the West will live to regret letting Putin think he nudge a bit further.
Cameron will regret asking Putin to get involved in his Better Together campaign.
rue the day Stuart, rue the day.
In fact there are now so many things the rest of us have to rue, physicists may have to rewrite the laws of time just so we can squeeze it all in.
That Euro election poll is most interesting (budget shine may or may not be starting to wear off). Still want some odds on Labour coming third...
It seems unlikely that Labour would come third, but an hilarious prospect nevertheless. The overconfidence shown by some on here would be well and truly exposed. for what it is. Just think of the infighting within Labour ranks if that were to happen.
The Mail front page is a classic. Tim would particularly approve of the evil pic.
Milhouse isn't evil ;9
Milhouse is pretty damn dodgy. It's one of Putin's investment vehicles...
@Charles : just to say I enjoyed visiting the exhibition at your gaff yesterday. It was an interesting selection of objects, although the prize exhibit in my mind was the house. Oh, and you were right: the brownies are nice. ;-)
The Mail front page is a classic. Tim would particularly approve of the evil pic.
Milhouse isn't evil ;9
Milhouse is pretty damn dodgy. It's one of Putin's investment vehicles...
@Charles : just to say I enjoyed visiting the exhibition at your gaff yesterday. It was an interesting selection of objects, although the prize exhibit in my mind was the house. Oh, and you were right: the brownies are nice. ;-)
My thanks to everyone concerned.
Glad you enjoyed it! The house is really quite fun although can cause sensory overload if you're not careful...
Must admit though, that this exhibition isn't really my think: much preferred the Newlyn School collection of Cornish art we had last year. Working on some ideas for next winter at the moment...
With gay marriage set to begin from tomorrow ComRes for the BBC show support breaks 68/26 in favour.
The nation has come a mighty long way in little more than half a generation from the days of virulent anti-gay discrimination of the "Daily Mail", the "Sun" , Section 28 and other notable bans on gay related issues.
I believe that much like other gay related social reform, that we will in short measure wonder what all the fuss was about and that gay people are like any other - good, bad and all shades in between.
Congratulations to all those celebrating marriage tomorrow on a most historic day.
LONDON--Britons became more confident in early March than at any time since the near-collapse of mortgage lender Northern Rock in the autumn of 2007, an event that marked the beginning of the financial crisis in the U.K., a poll showed Friday.
That Euro election poll is most interesting (budget shine may or may not be starting to wear off). Still want some odds on Labour coming third...
It seems unlikely that Labour would come third, but an hilarious prospect nevertheless. The overconfidence shown by some on here would be well and truly exposed. for what it is. Just think of the infighting within Labour ranks if that were to happen.
It should be possible now to calculate the effect postal voting is having in terms of Lab turnout at elections considered non-critical by comparing GE vs non-GE *council* election results before and after postal voting came in.
That would provide a clue as to how much of the nominal Lab Euro vote would show up on the day - which if the headline number makes them the fave...
That Euro election poll is most interesting (budget shine may or may not be starting to wear off). Still want some odds on Labour coming third...
It seems unlikely that Labour would come third, but an hilarious prospect nevertheless. The overconfidence shown by some on here would be well and truly exposed. for what it is. Just think of the infighting within Labour ranks if that were to happen.
Unlikely but possible. The Euro elections are made for Ukip and the Tories for various reasons. Add this to Labour's strange referendum fudge and likely decreasing morale over the next month and it might be a toxic combination for Labour
Stone (Dartford) Result: LAB - 37.7% (-3.8) CON - 35.1% (-11.0) UKIP - 27.2% (+27.2)
Vote UKIP get Lab......
UKIP has an important role to play in British politics. It represents a certain strand of opinion of the public whose democratic aspirations should be allowed to be expressed.
UKIP is the vehicle for that expression.
I don't doubt that - just that UKIP voters will probably end up getting the reverse of what they wish for - a government with a relaxed attitùde to immigration and because it wants to stay in te EU no referendum on that either......
With gay marriage set to begin from tomorrow ComRes for the BBC show support breaks 68/26 in favour.
The nation has come a mighty long way in little more than half a generation from the days of virulent anti-gay discrimination of the "Daily Mail", the "Sun" , Section 28 and other notable bans on gay related issues.
I believe that much like other gay related social reform, that we will in short measure wonder what all the fuss was about and that gay people are like any other - good, bad and all shades in between.
Congratulations to all those celebrating marriage tomorrow on a most historic day.
David Cameron almost personifies the journey - from strong supporter of Section 28 to strong supporter of gay marriage in about 10 years or so. Some change!
LONDON--Britons became more confident in early March than at any time since the near-collapse of mortgage lender Northern Rock in the autumn of 2007, an event that marked the beginning of the financial crisis in the U.K., a poll showed Friday.
ocean currents: if a plane went down in the middle of the Indian ocean en route to Diego Garcia then depending on the exact spot it looks like the debris might well drift south to an area west of Oz.
Am I imagining it or does the pilot look very gay?
Either way, just looking at the the currents map then if the debris is 1000 odd miles west of Oz then by according to the currents map it would have drifted south from where it went down so how far is the debris likely to have drifted in the time since the plane went down as that will tell you roughly where it hit.
Beith is stepping down, MP since 73 Nailed on Con Gain
More Tory ramping with little local awareness. Yawn! This will be close but Beith didn't hold it for 40 years on an entirely personal vote.
yawn, look at the movement in 2010. Look at the lib dem polling since then. Yawn.
You've been spamming the site for two days with predictions that would add up to a 60 seat Con majority. That aint going to happen. Like so many Tories you don't seem to understand that in this day and age a GE is not a uniform swing but in 200 or so key seats an individual mini-election in which thousands of people, like me, will vote against a party, rather than for the one they favour. You are going to be sadly disappointed in your tedious predictions of wipeout for the yellow peril.
I'd prefer it if you didn't refer to.me as a spammer, I've been posting on pb on this, or a very similar name since 2008. You I do not recognise, probably some noobie that has shown up whilst I was otherwise engaged for 18 months. The party of government are 1% behind a year out, they are within MOE of winning a mid term election and I have posted my reasons for expecting the situation to improve for them. Berwick swung 8% to Tory in 2010, the incumbency effect for the 40 year MP is now going, the Lib Dems are polling half their 2010 vote. Saying the Tories will take the seat is not spam, it's simple political logic. Now, debate the point if you want, but if you just want to bleat because you disagree or flame people because you are sociopathic, go and find someone who gives a crap.
Oh,,and as part of my spamathon, I predicted Tory gvt NOM, not anything like a sixty seater. Don't confuse me with Ave It
My apologies. I was in a grumpy mood last night. Re Northumberland. It comes down to whether you a) believe Con can increase vote share or b) think there will be tactical unwind. If you believe, as I do, that 2010 was high water for Con, then you need b. and that'll depend on how sophisticated the electorate is. But Northumberland is not a wealthy area; more in common with rural Wales and Scotland than Much of the English shires.
ocean currents: if a plane went down in the middle of the Indian ocean en route to Diego Garcia then depending on the exact spot it looks like the debris might well drift south to an area west of Oz.
Am I imagining it or does the pilot look very gay?
Either way, just looking at the the currents map then if the debris is 1000 odd miles west of Oz then by according to the currents map it would have drifted south from where it went down so how far is the debris likely to have drifted in the time since the plane went down as that will tell you roughly where it hit.
I'm not sure a map from the DM of the route they thought it took a fortnight ago is of much relevance. Neither is the site of Diego Garcia.
As far as I'm aware we don't even have any verified debris yet; the seas are chock full of flotsam.
As for the rest of your comment: grow up; you're just embarrassing yourself.
F1: Just reading up on practice. Quite interesting. Ferrari, and especially Raikkonen, appear to have made a leap forward. Mercedes still fastest, but by a small margin. May be due to difference in circuit as much as anything else. Both sessions appear to have been entirely dry, however, so rain during qualifying or the race could dramatically affect things.
ocean currents: if a plane went down in the middle of the Indian ocean en route to Diego Garcia then depending on the exact spot it looks like the debris might well drift south to an area west of Oz.
Am I imagining it or does the pilot look very gay?
Either way, just looking at the the currents map then if the debris is 1000 odd miles west of Oz then by according to the currents map it would have drifted south from where it went down so how far is the debris likely to have drifted in the time since the plane went down as that will tell you roughly where it hit.
I'm not sure a map from the DM of the route they thought it took a fortnight ago is of much relevance. Neither is the site of Diego Garcia.
As far as I'm aware we don't even have any verified debris yet; the seas are chock full of flotsam.
As for the rest of your comment: grow up; you're just embarrassing yourself.
If the ocean currents in that part of the world are north to south and they think they have debris west of Oz then the plane would have gone down the drift distance from where the debris is - yes or no?
Where the plane went down is relevant to where it was headed - yes or no?
I agree the last bit is a stretch but grown ups know that sometimes the combination of religion and homosexuality can lead to self-destructive behaviour.
ocean currents: if a plane went down in the middle of the Indian ocean en route to Diego Garcia then depending on the exact spot it looks like the debris might well drift south to an area west of Oz.
Am I imagining it or does the pilot look very gay?
Either way, just looking at the the currents map then if the debris is 1000 odd miles west of Oz then by according to the currents map it would have drifted south from where it went down so how far is the debris likely to have drifted in the time since the plane went down as that will tell you roughly where it hit.
I'm not sure a map from the DM of the route they thought it took a fortnight ago is of much relevance. Neither is the site of Diego Garcia.
As far as I'm aware we don't even have any verified debris yet; the seas are chock full of flotsam.
As for the rest of your comment: grow up; you're just embarrassing yourself.
If the ocean currents in that part of the world are north to south and they think they have debris west of Oz then the plane would have gone down the drift distance from where the debris is - yes or no?
Where the plane went down is relevant to where it was headed - yes or no?
I agree the last bit is a stretch but grown ups know that sometimes the combination of religion and homosexuality can lead to self-destructive behaviour.
As I said, using a map from two weeks ago to try to prove your point is rather ridiculous. You say if the ocean current are north to south - do you have any evidence they are? I would have thought that the Antarctic circumpolar current would have taken it south to north. But local conditions will vary.
The combination of conspiracy theory and stupidity can lead to self-destructive behaviour. You should be careful.
F1: just writing the pre-qualifying piece. Not gotten around to checking the markets yet (I may well duck out of offering a tip) but there seems to have been a remarkable closing of performance. Top 3 (all different teams) in P2 are covered by less than a tenth of a second. The top 7 are covered by less than 0.4s.
As I said, using a map from two weeks ago to try to prove your point is rather ridiculous. You say if the ocean current are north to south - do you have any evidence they are? I would have thought that the Antarctic circumpolar current would have taken it south to north. But local conditions will vary.
The combination of conspiracy theory and stupidity can lead to self-destructive behaviour. You should be careful.
Like I said "mostly messing" but
"You say if the ocean current are north to south - do you have any evidence they are?"
I linked to a map of ocean currents in my earlier post
"stupidity can lead to self-destructive behaviour"
Very true.
I have no clue if that map of currents is accurate however the main point stands - you should be able to work back from whatever the currents are at this time of year to guess roughly where the plane hit.
Comments
Lab 8/11 (Betfair, Stan James)
Con 11/8 (winner.com)
UKIP 200/1 (sportingbet)
LD 333/1 (Betfair)
FWIW I think this a rare case where Paddy got it right and Shadsy got it wrong - 1/3 is about right IMO.
That said, I agree that the Labour share is the more important figure. The 35% strategy looks set to be tested to destruction.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#InvernessNairnBadenochandStrathspey
23% chance of winning.
Its probably higher than that in reality, 60% at the most - it is no 1/2 though.
Figures please.
Con 871 LD 629 UKIP 311 Lab 159 Green 116
SNP 4/1 is value.
One of my claims to fame is that I was nearly the PPC for that seat, many moons ago. I know the constituency like the back of my hand.
Yeah, that's about right, I'd take 1/3 expecting a 2-3000 majority.
Movement is key from 2010. Harrogate and Knaresborough is the template.
But then I'm just a spammer apparently.
The Purple Columnist @PurpleColumnist 1m
Stone (Dartford) Result:
LAB - 37.7% (-3.8)
CON - 35.1% (-11.0)
UKIP - 27.2% (+27.2)
Tea Party icon Rand Paul turns to establishment Republicans for 2016 help
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is courting establishment Republicans in his bid to take the Tea Party into the White House.
In the midst of a so-called "civil war" within the party, Paul is hoping his conciliatory moves won't alienate his own base, while potential rivals such as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, opt for confrontation. His campaign thinks this approach will keep him from being the establishment target in a GOP primary.
"I don't think he will be the top choice of everyone in a primary, but I also think he won't have quite the number of people trying to stop him that some others may have had who came through a similar path in the past,” Doug Stafford, executive director of RAND PAC, told the Washington Examiner. “If he runs, he will be the first choice of a significant portion of the voters and an acceptable one to many others. And that's important.”
That strategy has played out most notably in Paul's endorsement of his fellow Kentuckian, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, over Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin.
“It’s really great,” McConnell said when asked of his relationship with Paul. Why? “He supported me for reelection, which I appreciate."
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who called Paul a “wacko bird” last year in response to the younger senator's filibuster against President Obama's drone program policy, is now willing to give Paul the kind of praise rarely applied by the Senate "old bulls" to Cruz, who is disliked by many colleagues.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/tea-party-icon-rand-paul-turns-to-establishment-republicans-for-2016-help/article/2546410
Pretentious hypocrites
Ratepayer 804 Con 205 UKIP 100 LD 62 Green 53
may well have cost me my lead in the vote-2012 prediction competition
Who does that damage more at a GE? The party relying on the protest, surely.
Think Tory wasted votes up north.....
Genuine question, it must play into some of the vote, they are clearly regaining some southern votes but where it does no good.
Salmond playing well on con/lab closeness and it's hurting Scottish labour.
Chalgrove & Watlington for #Oxfordshire CC: CON 41.8% (-15.9), LDEM 30.2% (+12.4), #UKIP 14.9% (+14.9), LAB 7.6% (-5.0), GRN 5.6% (-6.3).
I am not saying there is an alternative, I don't actually think there is except in the blend of tax increases and cuts, but they desperately want one and they are not hearing anything from the Labour leadership to give them hope.
St John's (Fylde) Result:
RATEPAYERS - 65.7% (+65.7)
CON - 16.7% (-23.9)
UKIP - 8.2% (+8.2)
LDEM - 5.1% (-17.3)
GRN - 4.3% (+4.3)
Wow!!!! UKIP gets 8% . Where the hell is Fylde?
Lab 480 Lib Dem 42x UKIP 337 Con 233
The photo of Labour figure and last digit of Lib Dem figures are unclear
Correct full figures Lab 482 LD 428 UKIP 357 Con 233
But I don't think even PB keeps stats on the number of counting clerks employed by each authority.
"I am afraid Ed Milliband will not be the next prime minister, To even contemplate supporting Osborne's welfare cap is sacrilege ... Labour has lost it's way, It has forgotten it's roots."
"It now seems Labour has two major policies: 1) support the Tories and 2) keep quiet. With the passing of each day there appear to be fewer and fewer reasons to vote Labour."
"Good on the rebels, the real PLP! The cap is not only economically illiterate (you can't predict future demand and need flexibility for unforeseen events) it is yet another example of the LP leadership cravenly allowing the enemy to frame the dominant political discourse. Which means we end up fighting on their territory e.g. the tabloid 'dole scum' narrative. A case in point is our compulsory job guarantee policy. This is a potentially popular and truly radical policy, in effect the nearest thing to a guarantee of full employment. Yet it has been wrapped up in the mean spirited language of Duncan Stiff Toryism! No wonder we are flat-lining in the opinion polls; it happens with every lurch to the right. I truly despair at the miseducated, clueless, done nothing, technocrats who currently have the whip hand in our Party."
"Only 13 rebels against this inequitable and unworkable proposal.
Shameful."
"Yet another pusillanimous capitulation in order to avoid embarrassment by a bad headline or two in the tabloids. Such behaviour, which would once have been incredibly disappointing, is pretty much expected these days and so somewhat less upsetting; Osborne pulls Labour's strings and sets the party dancing to his tune with next to no resistance.
What a bunch of quislings and paper tigers."
Very briefly, Western intelligence circles are very very concerned at this point about possible next Russian moves. The old maxim that if a dictator moves a force thats is bigger than any bluff requires then they intend to use it seems to being applied.
Only one problem. Obama's speech on these matters appears to have Putin thinking he can keep on with the bravado.
You wonder whether the West will live to regret letting Putin think he nudge a bit further.
The research by the University of Western Australia, using meteorological and ocean-current data alongside the British analysis from data “pings” recorded by UK firm Inmarsat, has determined the point of impact and the movements of debris in the weeks following the crash."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10728261/Scientists-believe-they-know-where-MH370-crashed.html
The press have been pushing "Labour to implode" for 4 years. Supposedly there was going to be some massive split between supporters of Ed and David. That didn't happen. David cleared off.
Last year it was "Ed Miliband's bad summer"- they promptly went back into the lead again.
Last week it was "look there'll be a big rebellion on the welfare cap. that'll show how Miliband will be unable to govern". Rebellion of 13.
As it happens, the cap is worthless. Like Labour's legally binding child poverty targets. It'll just be "Oh we missed it. Oh well!" And nothing'll happen.
In any case, it'll collapse because of universal credit.
People who bang on about her are never bigots, are they?
Ofgem are responsible for whether the market isn't working. They've implied pretty heavily it isn't.
UKIP is the vehicle for that expression.
Chalgrove & Watlington for #Oxfordshire CC: CON 41.8% (-15.9), LDEM 30.2% (+12.4), #UKIP 14.9% (+14.9), LAB 7.6% (-5.0), GRN 5.6% (-6.3).
Oh, yes ! I can see a straight shift from Labour to UKIP !!
Not even the vivid carmine and grand style of Sir Joshua can rescue him now.
So the pensioners did not see the good news ! In fact, they were told that their own miserable situation will not change one iota. Apparently, only those retiring from next year have been "liberated" .
In fact there are now so many things the rest of us have to rue, physicists may have to rewrite the laws of time just so we can squeeze it all in.
Just think of the infighting within Labour ranks if that were to happen.
My thanks to everyone concerned.
Had a very nice lunch in the Cote yesterday though - caught up with an old friend who wants my help in Brazil...
Must admit though, that this exhibition isn't really my think: much preferred the Newlyn School collection of Cornish art we had last year. Working on some ideas for next winter at the moment...
The nation has come a mighty long way in little more than half a generation from the days of virulent anti-gay discrimination of the "Daily Mail", the "Sun" , Section 28 and other notable bans on gay related issues.
I believe that much like other gay related social reform, that we will in short measure wonder what all the fuss was about and that gay people are like any other - good, bad and all shades in between.
Congratulations to all those celebrating marriage tomorrow on a most historic day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26773016
LONDON--Britons became more confident in early March than at any time since the near-collapse of mortgage lender Northern Rock in the autumn of 2007, an event that marked the beginning of the financial crisis in the U.K., a poll showed Friday.
http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2014/article/61623281
That would provide a clue as to how much of the nominal Lab Euro vote would show up on the day - which if the headline number makes them the fave...
Government debt +£730bn **
Industrial production -12%
Retail Sales +8%
Productivity -4%
Unit Labour Costs +16%
But house prices are rising so for millions of people everything is well in the world.
** Actually Government debt has increased by approximately £760bn if you remove the Maxwell style accounting of the Royal Mail pension fund assets
change of route
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/15/article-2581817-1C54454700000578-32_964x1069.jpg
location of Diego Garcia (location of alleged torture camps and occasional aircraft carriers)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/diego_garcia_locator_map.gif
ocean currents: if a plane went down in the middle of the Indian ocean en route to Diego Garcia then depending on the exact spot it looks like the debris might well drift south to an area west of Oz.
http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg
political leader jailed for sodomy
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html
Am I imagining it or does the pilot look very gay?
Either way, just looking at the the currents map then if the debris is 1000 odd miles west of Oz then by according to the currents map it would have drifted south from where it went down so how far is the debris likely to have drifted in the time since the plane went down as that will tell you roughly where it hit.
The last 5 YouGovs have given Labour leads of 1/2/3/2/1
and Labour VI of 37/38/38/37/36 - all within MOE
Cons VI has been: 36/36/35/35/35
So has there been a UKIP debate effect?
It is really too early to judge and may become clearer after the second debate.
The only place that can give a clue is UKIP's share of 2010 Voters.
For Labour this week this has been: 4/2/5/5/7 - is this a trend?
For the Cons: 13/12/13/14/13.
For the LDs: 9/12//9/8/8
As far as I'm aware we don't even have any verified debris yet; the seas are chock full of flotsam.
As for the rest of your comment: grow up; you're just embarrassing yourself.
F1: Just reading up on practice. Quite interesting. Ferrari, and especially Raikkonen, appear to have made a leap forward. Mercedes still fastest, but by a small margin. May be due to difference in circuit as much as anything else. Both sessions appear to have been entirely dry, however, so rain during qualifying or the race could dramatically affect things.
Where the plane went down is relevant to where it was headed - yes or no?
I agree the last bit is a stretch but grown ups know that sometimes the combination of religion and homosexuality can lead to self-destructive behaviour.
The combination of conspiracy theory and stupidity can lead to self-destructive behaviour. You should be careful.
"You say if the ocean current are north to south - do you have any evidence they are?"
I linked to a map of ocean currents in my earlier post
http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/oceancirculation.jpg
"stupidity can lead to self-destructive behaviour"
Very true.
I have no clue if that map of currents is accurate however the main point stands - you should be able to work back from whatever the currents are at this time of year to guess roughly where the plane hit.