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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 27th 2014

Stone on Dartford (Labour Defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31, Labour 9, Independents 4 (Conservative majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 713, 588, 544
Labour 642, 609, 560
English Democrats 192
Candidates duly nominated: Jim Moore (UKIP), Catherine Stafford (Lab), Stephanie Thredgle (Con)

Read the full story here

DaemonBarber

First?

Stark_Dawning

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

dyedwoolie

Lots of gains tonight. They all look ropey apart from Oxford and Sunderland

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

I don't think the idea that memory revision is going on is more likely than it simply being the case that UKIP hurt the Tories more than anyone else, when the polling has been so clear and sustained.

kle4

At last, some councils without massive majorities.

JackW

@MikeSmithson said:

ConHome is number one political blog of the blogs that he owns!

PB is totally independent and will remain so until Lord Ashcroft offers me £250k

.............................................................................

Chicken feed.

Remember Mike, PB is the Fortnum & Mason of political blogs not Poundland !!

Stuart_Dickson

New Ladbrokes market - Brighton Kemptown (Con maj = 1,328)

Lab 2/7
Con 5/2
Grn 50/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1

dyedwoolie

New Ladbrokes Market - any Tory seat you like

Lab 1/100
Mebyon Kernow Evens
Con 100/1
Lib Dems I'll need your house keys

MrJones

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

Obviously they are very poor compared to the average Cameroon but by a normal person's definition they are more the angry and disillusioned socio-economic median.

Stuart_Dickson

New Ladbrokes market - Dudley North (Lab maj = 649)

Lab 1/6
Con 4/1
UKIP 25/1
LD 100/1

Stuart_Dickson

dyedwoolie said:

New Ladbrokes Market - any Tory seat you like

Lab 1/100
Mebyon Kernow Evens
Con 100/1
Lib Dems I'll need your house keys

Stuart_Dickson

New Ladbrokes market - Kingston upon Hull North (Lab maj = 641)

Lab 1/16
LD 8/1
UKIP 33/1
Con 100/1

AveryLP

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

Mr. Dawning

I tend to be less forward than you in questioning the political allegiances of my friends.

But it is certainly my experience that those who are now professing to be Kippers, including members of my own family, do look as though might have voted for Gordon in 2010.

The indicators are subtle but distinct. Fraying shirt cuffs and holes in leather soles are amongst the first that strike the eye.

But it is only when purses and pockets are emptied and a tube of Steradent is first to emerge that political identification can be reliably confirmed.

Richard_Tyndall

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

I think the numbers speak for themselves. Those claiming that UKIP are damaging Labour as much as the Tories have been pointing to the polling evidence that 'only' 45% of the current UKIP vote comes from those who voted Tory in 2010. But anyone thinking about it for a second would realise that that means that the whole of the rest of the UKIP vote including those who were already voting UKIP in 2010 amounts to only 10% more than the Tory defection vote. That almost by definition means that there must be substantially more former Tory voters supporting UKIP than former Labour voters.

I think to try and argue that Labour are hurt as much as the Tories is plainly wrong.

That said to try and argue that therefore UKIP voters should all vote for the Tories is equally wrong. For people like me, even as a former Tory voter, the alternative to UKIP is not Tory. I have no idea what it might be but it would not be any of the 3 main parties.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular column.

Richard_Tyndall

On Topic, one thing that should perhaps worry all the main parties is that in all of those seats bar the Scottish one UKIP are now standing candidates where none were stood at the last elections. If nothing else it shows that UKIP are now able to produce a far more comprehensive ground cover for local elections than they have in the past.

dyedwoolie

Richard_Tyndall said:

On Topic, one thing that should perhaps worry all the main parties is that in all of those seats bar the Scottish one UKIP are now standing candidates where none were stood at the last elections. If nothing else it shows that UKIP are now able to produce a far more comprehensive ground cover for local elections than they have in the past.

However, if their 2010 GE candidate list is anything to go by, they are standing messrs Rag, Tag and Bobtail in most seats

Stuart_Dickson

New Ladbrokes market - Rochdale (Lab maj = 889)

Lab 1/16
LD 10/1
UKIP 50/1
Con 50/1

AveryLP

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

I think the numbers speak for themselves. Those claiming that UKIP are damaging Labour as much as the Tories have been pointing to the polling evidence that 'only' 45% of the current UKIP vote comes from those who voted Tory in 2010. But anyone thinking about it for a second would realise that that means that the whole of the rest of the UKIP vote including those who were already voting UKIP in 2010 amounts to only 10% more than the Tory defection vote. That almost by definition means that there must be substantially more former Tory voters supporting UKIP than former Labour voters.

I think to try and argue that Labour are hurt as much as the Tories is plainly wrong.

That said to try and argue that therefore UKIP voters should all vote for the Tories is equally wrong. For people like me, even as a former Tory voter, the alternative to UKIP is not Tory. I have no idea what it might be but it would not be any of the 3 main parties.

RT

Completely off topic but do I remember correctly that you had been contemplating the purchase of a Lincolnshire property which included a cricket pitch in its park?

FrankBooth

What is the Clegg strategy? This may sound ludicrous but........ it has a logic to it.

Nick Clegg doesn't believe the Tories can win the next election. He thinks there are two possible outcomes at the next election. A Labour majority or a hung parliament. He doesn't believe the Tories can win. If Labour can win 35 seats off the Tories his own position as Deputy PM looks precarious. So he's doing his best to get the Tory vote share up now it's fairly clear his own Party isn't going to recover. If the government's approval ratings improve he'll probably assume that his MPs can hang on where they're fighting Tories.

So from Clegg's perspective the budget and the polling afterwards was mission accomplished. Pensions minister Steve Webb has done more to revive the Tory vote than Cameron and Osborne have managed in 4 years. I may be too cynical by half but perhaps Clegg is a smarter player than he has been given credit for.

Stuart_Dickson

Ladbrokes - Euro election - UKIP MEPs

24 or less 4/6
25 or more 11/10

(They got 13 MEPs at the last Euro election in 2009.)

Socrates

A fantastic piece by a former CIA agent on how the US Senate Committee just rubber stamped the more unethical behaviour by the intelligence services:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-dianne-feinstein-cant-control-the-cia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-dianne-feinstein-cant-control-the-cia

A similar mindset overrides our political class. What's unexpected is that it now seems like momentum is seriously building for change in the US. I wonder how many years it will take for our political establishment to wake up to all this?

Stuart_Dickson

Ladbrokes - Lib Dem wipeout?

Euro election - Liberal Democrats to win 0 seats 5/1

Scott_P

@GeorgeWParker: Breaking at 10pm: the great Anglo-German love-in bears fruit in the FT. Important breakthrough for Cameron in his EU renegotiation

Grandiose

In today's YouGov, the Tories are on 35%. In 2010, they polled 37% (GB). So they have lost a net 2%. If we accept the full rigour of the previous header, then they have lost something like 45% of 11% i.e. about 5 percentage points, to UKIP. That means they've gained 3% from Lab or LD. That is a real push: surely Labour were hollowed out in 2010, at least, without more.

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

@GeorgeWParker: Breaking at 10pm: the great Anglo-German love-in bears fruit in the FT. Important breakthrough for Cameron in his EU renegotiation

Free Apfelstrudel for all ? Aldi buys Tesco ? Gaylord Poncy Jackboots ?

surbiton

I will be quite interested to see the results of Kilmarnock, Gedling, Dartford. Different contests each.

Richard_Tyndall

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

I think the numbers speak for themselves. Those claiming that UKIP are damaging Labour as much as the Tories have been pointing to the polling evidence that 'only' 45% of the current UKIP vote comes from those who voted Tory in 2010. But anyone thinking about it for a second would realise that that means that the whole of the rest of the UKIP vote including those who were already voting UKIP in 2010 amounts to only 10% more than the Tory defection vote. That almost by definition means that there must be substantially more former Tory voters supporting UKIP than former Labour voters.

I think to try and argue that Labour are hurt as much as the Tories is plainly wrong.

That said to try and argue that therefore UKIP voters should all vote for the Tories is equally wrong. For people like me, even as a former Tory voter, the alternative to UKIP is not Tory. I have no idea what it might be but it would not be any of the 3 main parties.

RT

Completely off topic but do I remember correctly that you had been contemplating the purchase of a Lincolnshire property which included a cricket pitch in its park?

I already have the property and have been in it for the last 4 years or so. But we do have a rather nice meadow where we now hold an annual 'ashes' (basically a knock about amongst friends and family) in memory of my old man who died a couple of years ago. Funny really as he never really got cricket but since we hold the match in early June it seems a nice way to remember him :-)

surbiton

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

Yes, all opinion polls are wrong AND your sub sample is correct ! Some PB Tories to write
sh!te.

AndyJS

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).

JackW

BBC "Question Time" Panel :

Justine Greening - Conservative MP
Simon Wolfson - Conservative peer
Diane Abbott - Labour MP
Mick Hucknall - Labour supporter
Roger Helmer - Ukip MEP

philiph

Scott_P said:

@GeorgeWParker: Breaking at 10pm: the great Anglo-German love-in bears fruit in the FT. Important breakthrough for Cameron in his EU renegotiation

Who would have thought Germans have some common concerns to us.

Freggles

Stark_Dawning said:

FPT: 'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'

All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.

On your last point, just look at the Republicans in the US - an alliance of the scared white working class and the corporate elite.

Stuart_Dickson

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

SLab are split.

The leadership and all their little stooges are SNP-haters of quite astonishing intensity. However, many of the normal activists, and vast swathes of their voters are Yes or leaning Yes.

This makes for a very unhappy family.

Ditto the Scottish Lib Dems.

Only the SNP and the Scottish Tories are united, each on their own side of the campaign.

AndyJS

Stuart_Dickson said:

New Ladbrokes market - Dudley North (Lab maj = 649)

Lab 1/6
Con 4/1
UKIP 25/1
LD 100/1

The 25/1 for UKIP in Dudley North looks interesting.

They got their 5th highest share there in 2010.

kle4

Socrates said:

A fantastic piece by a former CIA agent on how the US Senate Committee just rubber stamped the more unethical behaviour by the intelligence services:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-dianne-feinstein-cant-control-the-cia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-dianne-feinstein-cant-control-the-cia

A similar mindset overrides our political class. What's unexpected is that it now seems like momentum is seriously building for change in the US. I wonder how many years it will take for our political establishment to wake up to all this?

Some very fine points raised, even in the open paragraph itself:

But as bureaucracies mature they become less and less connected to their founding principles as circumstances change and they fail to adapt. They then go into a self-defense mode that makes maintaining jobs, budgets, and political turf in Washington[amend as appropriate] their top priority.

surbiton

Stuart_Dickson said:

New Ladbrokes market - Dudley North (Lab maj = 649)

Lab 1/6
Con 4/1
UKIP 25/1
LD 100/1

Yes

, I am beginning to see all the different seats' odds and as I wrote earlier I am really surprised. Perhaps, the polls do tell a story !

You could look at the first 70 Labour target seats and tell us the election results. It will be damn more accurate than Nationwide polls. After all, it is the marginals that decide.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, that's a stupid panel. Two supporters each for two parties is just rubbish. An intelligent neutral like Ruth Lea and a Lib Dem would be better.

kle4

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

It's either denial or the troops on the ground don't have the spirit for a fight (possibly due to being split, it has been suggested, but I do not know SLAB well enough to say) and so the leadership has no heart to fight it either. What other possible reason could explain the lack of urgency from the party best placed to defend the Union in Scotland?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, I've long said a Yes would (in General Election terms) be springtime for the SNP and Conservatives, either side of the border. A few years ago Labour had a Scottish PM *and* Chancellor. The notion they'd be as tough negotiating with Scotland on England, Wales and Northern Ireland's behalf as the Conservatives is risible.

surbiton

Stuart_Dickson said:

Ladbrokes - Euro election - UKIP MEPs

24 or less 4/6
25 or more 11/10

(They got 13 MEPs at the last Euro election in 2009.)

This has to be < 24 surely !

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, that's a stupid panel. Two supporters each for two parties is just rubbish. An intelligent neutral like Ruth Lea and a Lib Dem would be better.

I'm am surprised there's no independent panellist and neither Abbott or Hucknall are mainstream Labour. The LibDems normally appear slightly more than every other show.

surbiton

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, that's a stupid panel. Two supporters each for two parties is just rubbish. An intelligent neutral like Ruth Lea and a Lib Dem would be better.

Ruth Lea , a neutral ? That's a laugh !

currystar

Looking at Ladbrokes odds for individual seats they should have labour at 1/5 for an overall majority. It must be an arbers paradise

surbiton

If Scotland votes Yes, Labour could be in power in both countries !

Ishmael_X

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).

One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"

I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.

If they admitted to themselves that a 12.5% lead for No wasn't in the bag, what conclusions would that force them to draw about a 2% lead in Westminster VI?

dyedwoolie

Ishmael_X said:

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).

One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"

I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.

If they admitted to themselves that a 12.5% lead for No wasn't in the bag, what conclusions would that force them to draw about a 2% lead in Westminster VI?

The GE is done. Political expert Rupert who is in no way whoring for UKIP says so.

dyedwoolie

surbiton said:

If Scotland votes Yes, Labour could be in power in both countries !

Or in opposition in both.
Probably that

TOPPING

surbiton said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

New Ladbrokes market - Dudley North (Lab maj = 649)

Lab 1/6
Con 4/1
UKIP 25/1
LD 100/1

Yes

, I am beginning to see all the different seats' odds and as I wrote earlier I am really surprised. Perhaps, the polls do tell a story !

You could look at the first 70 Labour target seats and tell us the election results. It will be damn more accurate than Nationwide polls. After all, it is the marginals that decide.

First I am going to bed but please (all) don't not answer.

So, all these "Con Maj = XXX, Lab = 1/X odds on" seem strange. We are close in the polls some people say Lab NOM some say Cons NOM so how come there are so many supposedly bolted on deep odds-on Lab majority seats from Cons (albeit marginal) majorities?

dyedwoolie

FT front page - Schauble hints at two speed solution for Europe, boost for Cameron

Morris_Dancer

For reasons of a mysterious nature I was checking my 2011 results. Turns out I did slightly better than expected and finished three rather than two digits up. Now I see that, it makes my Betfair account look even more anaemic.

Carnyx

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

After the way Labour behaved in the first SNP minority administration, I could well believe the denial explanation. They certainly haven't got as far as acceptance that the SNP have grabbed their birthright (and trashed some of their most cherished baubles by promptly refusing to nominate any peerages). However ... two possibles:

1. I am not familiar with Islington thinking - but is it possible that a Yes vote is seen by Labour GHQ as getting rid of embarrassing leftie baggage (K. Hardie, J. Smith et aliis)?

2. The other logical possibility - however unlikely - is that Labour see their prospects after a No as just as bad (because they have been the rather public bed-partners of the Tories) - if they only get half the Scots seats at the GE they are no worse off if the nasty socialist republic of Jockistan secedes [I speak ironically, and from their perspective] and Labour can go back to being the neoliberal, M25 bubble, party ready to take power when the Kippers fall into the Tory winch drum. .

dyedwoolie

Carnyx said:

SeanT said:

Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.

After the way Labour behaved in the first SNP minority administration, I could well believe the denial explanation. They certainly haven't got as far as acceptance that the SNP have grabbed their birthright (and trashed some of their most cherished baubles by promptly refusing to nominate any peerages). However ... two possibles:

1. I am not familiar with Islington thinking - but is it possible that a Yes vote is seen by Labour GHQ as getting rid of embarrassing leftie baggage (K. Hardie, J. Smith et aliis)?

2. The other logical possibility - however unlikely - is that Labour see their prospects after a No as just as bad (because they have been the rather public bed-partners of the Tories) - if they only get half the Scots seats at the GE they are no worse off if the nasty socialist republic of Jockistan secedes [I speak ironically, and from their perspective] and Labour can go back to being the neoliberal, M25 bubble, party ready to take power when the Kippers fall into the Tory winch drum. .

Or, Labour is hollowed out and no longer actually believes in anything other than being in power.
Thanks, Tony

MikeL

Lab needs 67 gains.

Surely the seats with Lab 1/5 are all within the range of Lab targets 1 to 66?

(Some were Lab in 2010).

Is Lab 1/5 for any seat which is a target higher than 66?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carnyx, I'm not an Islington leftwinger (as you may have noticed) but they'd be innumerate to think that. Scotland is hugely beneficial to Labour for the General Election. The Conservatives win hardly any seats and the reds get 40 odd.

NickPalmer

Dawning never tries hard to be taken very seriously. I'm happy to accept the findings of every poll on the subject of where most Kippers come from. It's quite possible that some of them were Labour at some point in the past, of course.

Several interesting by-elections there. A friend in Gedling Labour says it's very hard to call that one and it's a bit special. If I understand it correctly, the former LibDem councillor is a really nice guy and has had to stand down for tragic health circumstances - she was unsure if that will produce a swing to the LibDems (in sympathy) or a swing against (because of the loss of the personal vote). Either way it's probably not going to be a guide to anything in particular. The Scottish one looks intriguing, though, and the Tories might have a shot in Stone.

Carnyx

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carnyx, I'm not an Islington leftwinger (as you may have noticed) but they'd be innumerate to think that. Scotland is hugely beneficial to Labour for the General Election. The Conservatives win hardly any seats and the reds get 40 odd.

Quite. Doesn't make sense, does it?

NickPalmer

Scotland: I was talking to a Scottish MP yesterday. He felt that it was simply too soon to try to mobilise for September. He didn't seem to be very worried and felt No was comfortably ahead despite the erosion of uncommitted votes, which is either confidence or denial as you prefer.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carnyx, indeed, but it should be remembered that sometimes people and groups do inexplicably stupid things. Hitler rather helpfully pausing the German pursuit of retreating Allied forces ahead of Dunkirk springs to mind.

AndyJS

MikeL said:

Lab needs 67 gains.

Surely the seats with Lab 1/5 are all within the range of Lab targets 1 to 66?

(Some were Lab in 2010).

Is Lab 1/5 for any seat which is a target higher than 66?

They need 68 gains (ignoring by-election results).

The ones I think are certainly less likely that 1/5 at the moment are:

68. High Peak
66. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (Plaid Cymru)
65. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
64. Argyll & Bute (LD)
55. Birmingham Yardley (LD)
54. Warwick & Leamington
48. Worcester
46. Arfon (Plaid Cymru)
35. Dundee East (SNP)

Be interesting to know what the odds are for those.

TheScreamingEagles

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

Two interesting voting intention polls coming up in a few minutes; general election and Euro. Neither good for @Ed_Miliband I'm afraid.

Tykejohnno

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn ·
Two interesting voting intention polls coming up in a few minutes; general election and Euro. Neither good for @Ed_Miliband I'm afraid

TheScreamingEagles

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 1 point, Budget bounce staying. General Election voting - LAB 36%, CON 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB 10%

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Euro Elections voting intention - LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, CON 24%, LIB 11%. The race for May 22 is getting very tight.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, the top three could, if that poll's accurate, be in any order.

The Lib Dems are a bit rubbish, though.

TOPPING

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carnyx, indeed, but it should be remembered that sometimes people and groups do inexplicably stupid things. Hitler rather helpfully pausing the German pursuit of retreating Allied forces ahead of Dunkirk springs to mind.

Mr Dancer while you're on and super O/T to PB but not to your goodself:

could you please in a line or two (max) tell me what the changes have been this season to F1 which have transformed the sport?

with thanks.

MarqueeMark

SeanT said:

However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?

Maybe SLab has no great affinity for Westminster Labour. SLab feel they are long-term the natural party of Government in Scotland - and so don't worry much if independence happens. If it means condemning England to Tory rule - well, heh....feck 'em.

Tykejohnno

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Euro Elections voting intention - LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, CON 24%, LIB 11%. The race for May 22 is getting very tight.


Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 1 point, Budget bounce staying. General Election voting - LAB 36%, CON 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB 10%

TheScreamingEagles

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

Tykejohnno

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

It looks like labour supporters jumping to ukip ;-)

dyedwoolie

Lab VI declining with YouGov over three days, budget bounce holding for Cam. No bounce for either debate participant yet. Milibabds limp response costing him.
Euros - disastrous for the opposition to be in a three way race. They should be slaughtering all comers.

compouter2

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Euro Elections voting intention - LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, CON 24%, LIB 11%. The race for May 22 is getting very tight.


Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 1 point, Budget bounce staying. General Election voting - LAB 36%, CON 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB 10%

"Budget bounce staying"...the old kiss of death.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Topping, a line or two? Being serious, it's a bit tricky to make it so concise.

Aerodynamic grip has been reduced, particularly at the rear, and engines (now smaller but with significant turbos and kinetic/heat recovered energy worth 10x as much as KERS) vary far more than previously and are very complicated, hence less reliability.

Carnyx

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carnyx, indeed, but it should be remembered that sometimes people and groups do inexplicably stupid things. Hitler rather helpfully pausing the German pursuit of retreating Allied forces ahead of Dunkirk springs to mind.

To be fair to the Fuehrer (!) he did have to worry about having his Panzer crews and vehicles clapped out and shot up in urban combat when they had the rest of France to conquer - at the time they hadn't done hugely more than in 1870 and 1914. Anyway, NPXMP's MP (presumably Labour on statistical grounds) may have the proximate explanation. Whether it is ultimately right we will have to see.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Weekly average of YouGov will be interesting too when shown over the year to date?

Tykejohnno

compouter2 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Euro Elections voting intention - LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, CON 24%, LIB 11%. The race for May 22 is getting very tight.


Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 1 min
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 1 point, Budget bounce staying. General Election voting - LAB 36%, CON 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB 10%

"Budget bounce staying"...the old kiss of death.

Well it is Tom newton Dunn ;-)

TOPPING

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Topping, a line or two? Being serious, it's a bit tricky to make it so concise.

Aerodynamic grip has been reduced, particularly at the rear, and engines (now smaller but with significant turbos and kinetic/heat recovered energy worth 10x as much as KERS) vary far more than previously and are very complicated, hence less reliability.

hmmm.

And for the F1 illiterates?

No_Offence_Alan

The SNP haven't won a council by-election since December 2011. Can they hold on tonight/tomorrow?

compouter2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

Two interesting voting intention polls coming up in a few minutes; general election and Euro. Neither good for @Ed_Miliband I'm afraid.

I'm afraid...err, no he isn't .On the bright side, The Scum have been paying hundreds of thousands of pounds to a polling company to show it's preferred party behind in virtually every single poll. I would love to know what happened to the hack who thought up that bright idea.

MikeL

Methodology query:

Does YouGov ask the same people the GE and Euros voting intention questions?

If so, presumably GE is asked first?

Again if so, this could create a bias - ie when people are asked the Euros question some people may take it as a slight prompt to give a different answer to what they said for GE.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Weekly average of YouGov will be interesting too when shown over the year to date?

Backed Spurs to win on Sunday

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

Two interesting voting intention polls coming up in a few minutes; general election and Euro. Neither good for @Ed_Miliband I'm afraid.

I'm afraid...err, no he isn't .On the bright side, The Scum have been paying hundreds of thousands of pounds to a polling company to show it's preferred party behind in virtually every single poll. I would love to know what happened to the hack who thought up that bright idea.

How quaint a view as ever.

Squeaky bum time for those betters waiting for their polling bet - is it 1 or 2 left now - Saturday night and does Monday's count?

Tykejohnno

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 1 min
So just 4% separates LAB, UKIP & CON in tonight's YouGov Euros poll. My money, at 10/1 is on Tories winning most votes

dyedwoolie

The protest isn't going to Labour, the Tories are on or about their 2010 score.
Yeah, it's all over Rupert.
Labour have disaffected Lib Dem tactical voters, that is all they have. And the Tories will have a better turnout as the party of government. Night, Ed

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carnyx, omitting the umlaut is fair enough (tricky on an English keyboard), but I do dislike the tendency for some to add an 'e'. Boo hiss!

Mr. Topping, art thou jesting? Are you jiggling my wiffle stick?

For ages engines have been basically the same. Now the Renault breaks and is a bit slow, the Ferrari uses too much fuel, and the Mercedes is fastest by some way and probably the most reliable too.

Lower downforce coupled with higher torque means there's more sliding in the corners (and overtaking/making mistakes opportunities), and reduces Red Bull's advantage (they're still very good at aerodynamics but it doesn't make up for weaknesses elsewhere).

I could bang on about this for ages, but that's the short version.

I'm afraid I'm off for the night now, but if you have any more questions I'll try and remember to check the thread and respond tomorrow.

compouter2

Show me the crossover.....show me the crossover!

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn

Two interesting voting intention polls coming up in a few minutes; general election and Euro. Neither good for @Ed_Miliband I'm afraid.

I'm afraid...err, no he isn't .On the bright side, The Scum have been paying hundreds of thousands of pounds to a polling company to show it's preferred party behind in virtually every single poll. I would love to know what happened to the hack who thought up that bright idea.

How quaint a view as ever.

Squeaky bum time for those betters waiting for their polling bet - is it 1 or 2 left now - Saturday night and does Monday's count?

I spoke to Paddy Power back in the summer about this, for the avoidance doubt they said, they would consider Monday's poll as Q1.

It all depends on the end of the fieldwork date. So the poll that ends on Monday counts.

MarkSenior

MikeL said:

Methodology query:

Does YouGov ask the same people the GE and Euros voting intention questions?

If so, presumably GE is asked first?

Again if so, this could create a bias - ie when people are asked the Euros question some people may take it as a slight prompt to give a different answer to what they said for GE.

Yes and Yes

Scrapheap_as_was

Tykejohnno said:

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 1 min
So just 4% separates LAB, UKIP & CON in tonight's YouGov Euros poll. My money, at 10/1 is on Tories winning most votes

Cough.... not predictable....

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Stark_Dawning

NickPalmer said:

Dawning never tries hard to be taken very seriously.

Well Nick, the first time I challenged the PB consensus - and was dubbed a 'creature of the night' by you and Roger for my troubles - was when I predicted that Gordon would be a disastrous leader for your party. Perhaps if you'd have heeded my advice, and tried to get someone else in, you wouldn't now been on the dole.

Tykejohnno

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB ·
Tonight's 11% LD share from YouGov for the May Euros is best from firm since Jan 2013. The debate affect?

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Weekly average of YouGov will be interesting too when shown over the year to date?

Backed Spurs to win on Sunday

Gawd bless you sir...

I'm now backing Everton as:

1. Seeing Arsenal in the Europa League would be great. love it, love it, love it (K Keegan)

2. It would dramatically improve Spurs disastrous current aggregate results against the 'top 4' teams this season.

MikeL

YouGov average Lab lead for last 8 weeks:

w/e 9 Feb - 5.0
w/e 16 Feb - 6.2
w/e 23 Feb - 6.0
w/e 2 Mar - 5.2
w/e 9 Mar - 6.4
w/e 16 Mar - 5.0
w/e 23 Mar - 4.6
w/e 30 Mar - 2.0 (first 4 polls; one poll to come)

Stuart_Dickson

surbiton said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Ladbrokes - Euro election - UKIP MEPs

24 or less 4/6
25 or more 11/10

(They got 13 MEPs at the last Euro election in 2009.)

This has to be < 24 surely !

Agreed. That 4/6 looks tempting.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Weekly average of YouGov will be interesting too when shown over the year to date?

Backed Spurs to win on Sunday

Gawd bless you sir...

I'm now backing Everton as:

1. Seeing Arsenal in the Europa League would be great. love it, love it, love it (K Keegan)

2. It would dramatically improve Spurs disastrous current aggregate results against the 'top 4' teams.

I backed Everton as well to finish fourth.

TOPPING

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Carnyx, omitting the umlaut is fair enough (tricky on an English keyboard), but I do dislike the tendency for some to add an 'e'. Boo hiss!

Mr. Topping, art thou jesting? Are you jiggling my wiffle stick?

For ages engines have been basically the same. Now the Renault breaks and is a bit slow, the Ferrari uses too much fuel, and the Mercedes is fastest by some way and probably the most reliable too.

Lower downforce coupled with higher torque means there's more sliding in the corners (and overtaking/making mistakes opportunities), and reduces Red Bull's advantage (they're still very good at aerodynamics but it doesn't make up for weaknesses elsewhere).

I could bang on about this for ages, but that's the short version.

I'm afraid I'm off for the night now, but if you have any more questions I'll try and remember to check the thread and respond tomorrow.

Sweet dreams.

I still want to know in one line (sorry to tighten up the params) why F1 has changed this season and what the nature of that change is which makes it so much more exciting.

I'm not being awkward - I'm one of those lost souls who finds F1 very boring so if there is now an extra element which, in knowing, will increase viewing enjoyment, I would be quite interested to know.

One line!

MikeL

MarkSenior said:

MikeL said:

Methodology query:

Does YouGov ask the same people the GE and Euros voting intention questions?

If so, presumably GE is asked first?

Again if so, this could create a bias - ie when people are asked the Euros question some people may take it as a slight prompt to give a different answer to what they said for GE.

Yes and Yes

Thanks - looks like there is significant scope for bias.

They need to do separate poll where they just ask the Euros question.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes on the EU poll since last week

Con no change

Lab minus 4

LD plus 1

UKIP plus 3

OGH may be posting about the Tory odds on winning the Euro poll shortly.....

Weekly average of YouGov will be interesting too when shown over the year to date?

Backed Spurs to win on Sunday

Gawd bless you sir...

I'm now backing Everton as:

1. Seeing Arsenal in the Europa League would be great. love it, love it, love it (K Keegan)

2. It would dramatically improve Spurs disastrous current aggregate results against the 'top 4' teams.

I backed Everton as well to finish fourth.

That is one bet we can both be happy you've made!

TheScreamingEagles

What happened to our cricketers?

Around 4pm I was swearing like a squaddie with tourette's syndrome at our ineptness?

surbiton

dyedwoolie said:

Lab VI declining with YouGov over three days, budget bounce holding for Cam. No bounce for either debate participant yet. Milibabds limp response costing him.
Euros - disastrous for the opposition to be in a three way race. They should be slaughtering all comers.

dyedwoolie said:

surbiton said:

If Scotland votes Yes, Labour could be in power in both countries !

Or in opposition in both.
Probably that

Let's put it this way, Labour has more chances to b ein power in both countries than the Tories!

Secondly, as HYUFD points out repeatedly, every election that Labour won bar Feb 1974 and 1964 [ I think ], Labour would have won anyway even if only England had voted.

So, this idea that Labour can only win with the Scottish seats is false.

The reason is quite simple. England holds more than 80% of seats in the HoC. It is well nigh impossible to win a majority in the HoC without winning England.

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband promises firms energy bill protection

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26772581#