Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Tonight's 11% LD share from YouGov for the May Euros is best from firm since Jan 2013. The debate affect?
That's funny. The Lib Dem vote jumps 1 point from bugger all to slightly more than bugger all and OGH tries to claim it is a bounce from the debate. The UKIP vote jumps 3 points and puts them back in second place and it doesn't get a mention.
New Ladbrokes market - Dudley North (Lab maj = 649)
Lab 1/6 Con 4/1 UKIP 25/1 LD 100/1
Yes
, I am beginning to see all the different seats' odds and as I wrote earlier I am really surprised. Perhaps, the polls do tell a story !
You could look at the first 70 Labour target seats and tell us the election results. It will be damn more accurate than Nationwide polls. After all, it is the marginals that decide.
Labour are nearly always better at targetting and GOTV. Far too often the Tories do very well at piling up votes in the home counties, but rarely where they are most needed.
I agree that looking at the 100 most marginal seats will be a better predictor than the overall VI figures.
Around 4pm I was swearing like a squaddie with tourette's syndrome at our ineptness?
Typically I got to listen to our inept fielding display and then all hell broke lose work-wise and I missed the whole of our innings!! Perhaps I should miss Spurs games too?
Lab VI declining with YouGov over three days, budget bounce holding for Cam. No bounce for either debate participant yet. Milibabds limp response costing him. Euros - disastrous for the opposition to be in a three way race. They should be slaughtering all comers.
If Scotland votes Yes, Labour could be in power in both countries !
Or in opposition in both. Probably that
Let's put it this way, Labour has more chances to b ein power in both countries than the Tories!
Secondly, as HYUFD points out repeatedly, every election that Labour won bar Feb 1974 and 1964 [ I think ], Labour would have won anyway even if only England had voted.
So, this idea that Labour can only win with the Scottish seats is false.
The reason is quite simple. England holds more than 80% of seats in the HoC. It is well nigh impossible to win a majority in the HoC without winning England.
Well yes I'm not holding out hope for a Scottish Tory government any time soon! The Tories will win a plurality of English seats in 2015. Guaranteed.
George Eaton @georgeeaton · Labour to stage Commons vote next week on energy price freeze "to test Conservative and Liberal Democrat support for enterprise".
Around 4pm I was swearing like a squaddie with tourette's syndrome at our ineptness?
Typically I got to listen to our inept fielding display and then all hell broke lose work-wise and I missed the whole of our innings!! Perhaps I should miss Spurs games too?
It's a bit like me when I go see England play a test match, we usually get smashed.
w/e 9 Feb - 5.0 w/e 16 Feb - 6.2 w/e 23 Feb - 6.0 w/e 2 Mar - 5.2 w/e 9 Mar - 6.4 w/e 16 Mar - 5.0 w/e 23 Mar - 4.6 w/e 30 Mar - 2.0 (first 4 polls; one poll to come)
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
George Eaton @georgeeaton · Labour to stage Commons vote next week on energy price freeze "to test Conservative and Liberal Democrat support for enterprise".
George Eaton @georgeeaton · Labour to stage Commons vote next week on energy price freeze "to test Conservative and Liberal Democrat support for enterprise".
You need to be more patient.. It looks as you might get what you have been wanting to see very soon.
Some of the overconfidence might get knocked out of some the left leaning posters who think GE2015 is already a foregone conclusion.
I do not desire a Labour victory in 2015 even though I have viewed it as a foregone conclusion for years, but if the Tories can manage to regain a small lead and sustain it, I may consider reassessing to see if they have any hope, that seems reasonable.
Around 4pm I was swearing like a squaddie with tourette's syndrome at our ineptness?
You must be related to Southam Observer, He does that sort of stuff..
We were really crap, for the first half of the match it looked like we were coached by Ed Miliband.
And don't even get me started on Steve Davis' inept umpiring, he's the Jade Dernbach of umpiring.
Plus I was annoyed at the Cloggies for ballsing it up against South Africa.
I was busy so didn't hear anything bar the last 5 overs.. Fat lady wasn't singing, so there was hope. England are in transition, but I agree that Dernbach is not worth his place.
Scotland: I was talking to a Scottish MP yesterday. He felt that it was simply too soon to try to mobilise for September. He didn't seem to be very worried and felt No was comfortably ahead despite the erosion of uncommitted votes, which is either confidence or denial as you prefer.
Nick,
I recall your comments about the Scottish by-elections last parliament, and in particular the level of hard work (?) that the Labour constituency parties had put in previously.
Your recent conversation might suggest that nothing has changed in approach?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Tonight's 11% LD share from YouGov for the May Euros is best from firm since Jan 2013. The debate affect?
That's funny. The Lib Dem vote jumps 1 point from bugger all to slightly more than bugger all and OGH tries to claim it is a bounce from the debate. The UKIP vote jumps 3 points and puts them back in second place and it doesn't get a mention.
There is another by-election being held today, Cheap ward in the City of London. Not many residents in this ward, mainly business voters. The ward is basically between Cheapside and Gresham Street.
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Most Labour supporters have one problem regarding the Scottish vote. How can you deny a people if they want independence ? It certainly applies to Palestinians, as it does to the Crimeans, as it does to Kosovans. Why not Scots ?
Let them decide first, then we worry about the HoC. This idea that Labour cannot win in England is just poppycock. In only two Labour victories since WW2 has Labour not carried England. It would hav been the largest party still.
I'm actually quite glad the Tory poll bounce isn't fading. The Labour leadership need to see how bad their current strategy is, and how if they want to have a chance of winning it might be an idea to actually argue for an alternative, rather than just meekly accepting the Tories' stance on everything apart from a few isolated gimmicks (like energy prices).
Be interesting to know what the odds are for those.
Well, we already know a couple:
Argyll & Bute LAB 2/1 Birmingham Yardley LAB 1/2
Tougher for Labour in Scotland than England comparitively speaking.
Indeed.
It is crystal clear that there has been a CON to LAB swing in England since 2010.
However, it is crystal clear that there has been a LAB to SNP swing in Scotland since 2010.
And there is even some evidence that there has been a small LAB to CON swing in Scotland since 2010.
So, that just leaves the poor old SLDs for SLab to thump.
Makes Dumfries and Galloway one to watch
Indeed.
Labour have a 7,449 majority over Con with the SNP in 3rd place. If they manage to leak votes to both then it could end up tight. Lab still FAV, but far from safe. Where the 4,608 former Lib Dem votes go will probably be decisive, cos damn few will be staying in the SLD column.
Be interesting to know what the odds are for those.
Well, we already know a couple:
Argyll & Bute LAB 2/1 Birmingham Yardley LAB 1/2
Tougher for Labour in Scotland than England comparitively speaking.
Indeed.
It is crystal clear that there has been a CON to LAB swing in England since 2010.
However, it is crystal clear that there has been a LAB to SNP swing in Scotland since 2010.
And there is even some evidence that there has been a small LAB to CON swing in Scotland since 2010.
So, that just leaves the poor old SLDs for SLab to thump.
Makes Dumfries and Galloway one to watch
Indeed.
Labour have a 7,449 majority over Con with the SNP in 3rd place. If they manage to leak votes to both then it could end up tight. Lab still FAV, but far from safe. Where the 4,608 former Lib Dem votes go will probably be decisive, cos damn few will be staying in the SLD column.
Plus it swung unusually to Lab in 2010. Galloway and Upper Niths is still a Tory stronghold at Holyrood However, not one I expect them to gain as it stands
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Most Labour supporters have one problem regarding the Scottish vote. How can you deny a people if they want independence ? It certainly applies to Palestinians, as it does to the Crimeans, as it does to Kosovans. Why not Scots ?
Let them decide first, then we worry about the HoC. This idea that Labour cannot win in England is just poppycock. In only two Labour victories since WW2 has Labour not carried England. It would hav been the largest party still.
That would be an argument against refusing them a referendum, but not as far as I can see against trying to persuade them how to vote in the referendum once granted. And the right accepts the principle of self determination as much as the left does (and any Tory nutters who secretly don't, are hampered by the fact that the Blessed Margaret made it key to Her campaign the Falklands).
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Saying a country is naturally left-leaning or naturally right-leaning is utterly meaningless, as "left" and "right" are relative things, even if you ignore the fact it's a one line spectrum that doesn't fit a lot of voters. What counts as "left" or "right" is entirely down to the country in question. For example, you could say France is right-leaning, because it elects conservative governments more often than socialist ones, but in relation to the UK, it's a very left-wing place.
In terms of the UK, it's not at all clear that the entire Lib Dem vote is left-wing. So the whole premise falls apart anyway.
I'm actually quite glad the Tory poll bounce isn't fading. The Labour leadership need to see how bad their current strategy is, and how if they want to have a chance of winning it might be an idea to actually argue for an alternative, rather than just meekly accepting the Tories' stance on everything apart from a few isolated gimmicks (like energy prices).
As was pointed out by one of the political commentators, its incredible that Labour were caught flat footed by a policy that was actually in the Tory Manifesto.
Someone wasn't doing their job.... either too lazy or overconfident, I think its probably both.
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Saying a country is naturally left-leaning or naturally right-leaning is utterly meaningless, as "left" and "right" are relative things, even if you ignore the fact it's a one line spectrum that doesn't fit a lot of voters. What counts as "left" or "right" is entirely down to the country in question. For example, you could say France is right-leaning, because it elects conservative governments more often than socialist ones, but in relation to the UK, it's a very left-wing place.
In terms of the UK, it's not at all clear that the entire Lib Dem vote is left-wing. So the whole premise falls apart anyway.
Indeed it does, but everyone seems to fall back on it as a general truth regardless; I guess it's just easier for tribal divisions to imagine there is a clear line between left and right, even as parties scramble over the same policies and jump around the spectrum on specific issues as different cliques gain control of their party leaderships
Another 1% Labour lead. Hanging on by the skin of their teeth. What the tories would give for a bit more random variation in this polling. If cross over did occur this far out I think Labour could really implode. There can't be much keeping the majority of Labour loyal to Ed than a desperate desire to win.
Hearing Labour recycling their price freeze rubbish today was bordering on sad. The world moves on and Labour seem increasingly out of contact with it. And that is despite the best attempts of Ed Davey who was deeply unimpressive this morning on Today.
Another 1% Labour lead. Hanging on by the skin of their teeth. What the tories would give for a bit more random variation in this polling. If cross over did occur this far out I think Labour could really implode. There can't be much keeping the majority of Labour loyal to Ed than a desperate desire to win.
Please don't talk about Labour imploding David. It gets us Yes types over-excited.
Another 1% Labour lead. Hanging on by the skin of their teeth. What the tories would give for a bit more random variation in this polling. If cross over did occur this far out I think Labour could really implode. There can't be much keeping the majority of Labour loyal to Ed than a desperate desire to win.
Please don't talk about Labour imploding David. It gets us Yes types over-excited.
And in that context at least it gets me worried. I have a number of Labour supporting friends (something only to be admitted on an anonymous blog) and they are far more ambivalent about the vote than I would like them to be. Some of them are beginning to wonder what they have in common with a party that elected Ed Miliband as leader.
As I think you commented downthread only the tories and the SNP seem to have no doubts at all on this one. Labour are the key swing constituency and they are deeply divided and poorly led.
Tories 4% behind in Euro poll PLUS FT headline story tomorrow EQUALS very wise bet from OGH on a Tory Euro win
How many voters do you think will read Cam and Merkel AND change their minds ?
This was always going to be the way. Cameron will get a succession of EU leaders to claim that they are happy to move to accommodate his demands but in the end nothing material will change.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Tonight's 11% LD share from YouGov for the May Euros is best from firm since Jan 2013. The debate affect?
That's funny. The Lib Dem vote jumps 1 point from bugger all to slightly more than bugger all and OGH tries to claim it is a bounce from the debate. The UKIP vote jumps 3 points and puts them back in second place and it doesn't get a mention.
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Most Labour supporters have one problem regarding the Scottish vote. How can you deny a people if they want independence ? It certainly applies to Palestinians, as it does to the Crimeans, as it does to Kosovans. Why not Scots ?
Let them decide first, then we worry about the HoC. This idea that Labour cannot win in England is just poppycock. In only two Labour victories since WW2 has Labour not carried England. It would hav been the largest party still.
That would be an argument against refusing them a referendum, but not as far as I can see against trying to persuade them how to vote in the referendum once granted. And the right accepts the principle of self determination as much as the left does (and any Tory nutters who secretly don't, are hampered by the fact that the Blessed Margaret made it key to Her campaign the Falklands).
The right of the Scots to self-determination was conceded by all important parties long ago. I am old enough to remember when Margaret Thatcher stated that if the SNP ever won a majority of Scottish MPs then of course Scotland would become independent. (This was before Holyrood and before referendums became fashionable.) It was a front-page story back then because people were amazed that Thatcher was such a democrat. Nobody bats an eyelid now.
Well I managed to generate 100 shares and nigh on 500 comments on a Telegraph blog about indyref- never easy.
However not one commenter has given a satisfactory answer to my central question. Given that Scottish independence represents an existential threat to Labour (more than the Tories), why do labour look so complacent and inert on the issue?
In the absence of an alternative explanation, I am forced to believe my own speculation: they are in Denial. But perhaps a pb lefty knows better.
Pretty obvious that it is denial IMO. That's why no-one answered the question (maybe).
One well known lefty commenter tried this line: "Labour are supremely relaxed about losing the referendum because they know they have a natural majority in England, too. OK lots of them don't vote now, but they will go to the booths after a YES vote, to keep the Tories out"
I submit that is actually a stage beyond Denial, and closer to pathological.
I think the "lefty" is right: England does naturally lean towards the left, it is just that for the last 100 years plus the left of centre vote has been split. Nick Clegg has changed that.
Most Labour supporters have one problem regarding the Scottish vote. How can you deny a people if they want independence ? It certainly applies to Palestinians, as it does to the Crimeans, as it does to Kosovans. Why not Scots ?
Let them decide first, then we worry about the HoC. This idea that Labour cannot win in England is just poppycock. In only two Labour victories since WW2 has Labour not carried England. It would hav been the largest party still.
If most Labour folk looked at the substantive issues in the Scottish referendum dispassionately and logically then lots of them, perhaps most of them, would vote Yes.
The campaign for self-government is a noble cause. Labour used to support noble causes.
In Ukraine, fascists, oligarchs and western expansion are at the heart of the crisis
The story we're told about the protests gripping Kiev bears only the sketchiest relationship with reality
We've been here before. For the past couple of months street protests in Ukraine have been played out through the western media according to a well-rehearsed script. Pro-democracy campaigners are battling an authoritarian government. The demonstrators are demanding the right to be part of the European Union. But Russia's president Vladimir Putin has vetoed their chance of freedom and prosperity.
It's a story we've heard in one form or another again and again – not least in Ukraine's western-backed Orange revolution a decade ago. But it bears only the sketchiest relationship to reality. EU membership has never been – and very likely never will be – on offer to Ukraine. As in Egypt last year, the president that the protesters want to force out was elected in a poll judged fair by international observers. And many of those on the streets aren't very keen on democracy at all.
You'd never know from most of the reporting that far-right nationalists and fascists have been at the heart of the protests and attacks on government buildings. One of the three main opposition parties heading the campaign is the hard-right antisemitic Svoboda, whose leader Oleh Tyahnybok claims that a "Moscow-Jewish mafia" controls Ukraine. But US senator John McCain was happy to share a platform with him in Kiev last month. The party, now running the city of Lviv, led a 15,000-strong torchlit march earlier this month in memory of the Ukrainian fascist leader Stepan Bandera, whose forces fought with the Nazis in the second world war and took part in massacres of Jews.
Whether that calms or feeds the unrest will be clear soon enough. But the risk of the conflict spreading – leading political figures have warned of civil war – is serious. There are other steps that could help defuse the crisis: the creation of a broad coalition government, a referendum on EU relations, a shift from a presidential to a parliamentary system and greater regional autonomy.
The breakup of Ukraine would not be a purely Ukrainian affair. Along with China's emerging challenge to US domination of east Asia, the Ukrainian faultine has the potential to draw in outside powers and lead to a strategic clash. Only Ukrainians can overcome this crisis. Continuing outside interference is both provocative and dangerous.
Now this is beginning to look like a personal vendetta by YouGov against honest punters.
The lead jumps around, hitting 1 point repeatedly, but that's just not good enough. We need a zero - just one, we could swap it for a two-point lead the next day just to even things out - and by any reasonable statistical fluke, we should have had one by now.
Tories 4% behind in Euro poll PLUS FT headline story tomorrow EQUALS very wise bet from OGH on a Tory Euro win
How many voters do you think will read Cam and Merkel AND change their minds ?
This was always going to be the way. Cameron will get a succession of EU leaders to claim that they are happy to move to accommodate his demands but in the end nothing material will change.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Now this is beginning to look like a personal vendetta by YouGov against honest punters.
The lead jumps around, hitting 1 point repeatedly, but that's just not good enough. We need a zero - just one, we could swap it for a two-point lead the next day just to even things out - and by any reasonable statistical fluke, we should have had one by now.
Grrr...
Only one reasonable explanation: God doesn't like Tories.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Clearly you have never come across the great English proverb: "She who pays the piper calls the tune".
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 8s SUNDERLAND ST ANNES RESULT (LAB HOLD) LAB 48% UKIP 28% CON 18% GREEN 6%
Terrific result there for UKIP. From nothing to 28%. That is never an easy task.
And it seems to have come mostly from Labour. The Con vote held up pretty well.
Can't be, all the Kippers come from Tory votes, the polls say so. The Tories must have found another 18% somewhere and the lab drop is down to Thatcher being evil
Tories 4% behind in Euro poll PLUS FT headline story tomorrow EQUALS very wise bet from OGH on a Tory Euro win
How many voters do you think will read Cam and Merkel AND change their minds ?
This was always going to be the way. Cameron will get a succession of EU leaders to claim that they are happy to move to accommodate his demands but in the end nothing material will change.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Clearly you have never come across the great English proverb: "She who pays the piper calls the tune".
Beith is stepping down, MP since 73 Nailed on Con Gain
More Tory ramping with little local awareness. Yawn! This will be close but Beith didn't hold it for 40 years on an entirely personal vote.
yawn, look at the movement in 2010. Look at the lib dem polling since then. Yawn.
You've been spamming the site for two days with predictions that would add up to a 60 seat Con majority. That aint going to happen. Like so many Tories you don't seem to understand that in this day and age a GE is not a uniform swing but in 200 or so key seats an individual mini-election in which thousands of people, like me, will vote against a party, rather than for the one they favour. You are going to be sadly disappointed in your tedious predictions of wipeout for the yellow peril.
Self-confessed rap music fan and Education Secretary Michael Gove impresses pupils with his vocal skills as he performs part of the Wham Rap! when quizzed by students.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 8s SUNDERLAND ST ANNES RESULT (LAB HOLD) LAB 48% UKIP 28% CON 18% GREEN 6%
Terrific result there for UKIP. From nothing to 28%. That is never an easy task.
And it seems to have come mostly from Labour. The Con vote held up pretty well.
Can't be, all the Kippers come from Tory votes, the polls say so. The Tories must have found another 18% somewhere and the lab drop is down to Thatcher being evil
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 8s SUNDERLAND ST ANNES RESULT (LAB HOLD) LAB 48% UKIP 28% CON 18% GREEN 6%
Terrific result there for UKIP. From nothing to 28%. That is never an easy task.
And it seems to have come mostly from Labour. The Con vote held up pretty well.
Can't be, all the Kippers come from Tory votes, the polls say so. The Tories must have found another 18% somewhere and the lab drop is down to Thatcher being evil
Just made my first SNP seat bet. 4-1 for Inverness Bairn, Strathspey
Tories 4% behind in Euro poll PLUS FT headline story tomorrow EQUALS very wise bet from OGH on a Tory Euro win
How many voters do you think will read Cam and Merkel AND change their minds ?
This was always going to be the way. Cameron will get a succession of EU leaders to claim that they are happy to move to accommodate his demands but in the end nothing material will change.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Tories are pretty easy to fool most of the time.
People are pretty easy to fool most of the time. I suspect it's merely that specific parties are more susceptible to being fooled on specific topics.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Clearly you have never come across the great English proverb: "She who pays the piper calls the tune".
Except France also pays the piper, and they'll never sign up to it.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Clearly you have never come across the great English proverb: "She who pays the piper calls the tune".
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
Tories 4% behind in Euro poll PLUS FT headline story tomorrow EQUALS very wise bet from OGH on a Tory Euro win
How many voters do you think will read Cam and Merkel AND change their minds ?
This was always going to be the way. Cameron will get a succession of EU leaders to claim that they are happy to move to accommodate his demands but in the end nothing material will change.
It amazes me the number of Tories that seem to believe Merkel plus a handful of small nation leaders can get through whatever change they want in the EU in areas that required unanimity.
Tories are pretty easy to fool most of the time.
People are pretty easy to fool most of the time. I suspect it's merely that specific parties are more susceptible to being fooled on specific topics.
You can't be implying the tory Eurosceptics are some of the most gullible and easy to fool? If that was the case we'd surely have seen just a smidgeon of Cast Iron evidence of that. Many, many, many times before.
Beith is stepping down, MP since 73 Nailed on Con Gain
More Tory ramping with little local awareness. Yawn! This will be close but Beith didn't hold it for 40 years on an entirely personal vote.
yawn, look at the movement in 2010. Look at the lib dem polling since then. Yawn.
You've been spamming the site for two days with predictions that would add up to a 60 seat Con majority. That aint going to happen. Like so many Tories you don't seem to understand that in this day and age a GE is not a uniform swing but in 200 or so key seats an individual mini-election in which thousands of people, like me, will vote against a party, rather than for the one they favour. You are going to be sadly disappointed in your tedious predictions of wipeout for the yellow peril.
I'd prefer it if you didn't refer to.me as a spammer, I've been posting on pb on this, or a very similar name since 2008. You I do not recognise, probably some noobie that has shown up whilst I was otherwise engaged for 18 months. The party of government are 1% behind a year out, they are within MOE of winning a mid term election and I have posted my reasons for expecting the situation to improve for them. Berwick swung 8% to Tory in 2010, the incumbency effect for the 40 year MP is now going, the Lib Dems are polling half their 2010 vote. Saying the Tories will take the seat is not spam, it's simple political logic. Now, debate the point if you want, but if you just want to bleat because you disagree or flame people because you are sociopathic, go and find someone who gives a crap.
Oh,,and as part of my spamathon, I predicted Tory gvt NOM, not anything like a sixty seater. Don't confuse me with Ave It
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
It's only one poll. But the Labour share is more important to track than the lead. And it does seem to have dropped since the budget.
A very bad poll for Labour. If I were one of their strategist what would worry me most is not the one point lead, but the 36% vote share. That's very low for YG. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament moving to favourite?
Don't worry,ed's on the case,he's on energy again,should give him some plus points.
Comments
Pants and/or Balls.
I agree that looking at the 100 most marginal seats will be a better predictor than the overall VI figures.
The Tories will win a plurality of English seats in 2015. Guaranteed.
Labour to stage Commons vote next week on energy price freeze "to test Conservative and Liberal Democrat support for enterprise".
You must be related to Southam Observer, He does that sort of stuff..
Some of the overconfidence might get knocked out of some the left leaning posters who think GE2015 is already a foregone conclusion.
And don't even get me started on Steve Davis' inept umpiring, he's the Jade Dernbach of umpiring.
Plus I was annoyed at the Cloggies for ballsing it up against South Africa.
I was busy so didn't hear anything bar the last 5 overs.. Fat lady wasn't singing, so there was hope. England are in transition, but I agree that Dernbach is not worth his place.
Argyll & Bute LAB 2/1
Birmingham Yardley LAB 1/2
I recall your comments about the Scottish by-elections last parliament, and in particular the level of hard work (?) that the Labour constituency parties had put in previously.
Your recent conversation might suggest that nothing has changed in approach?
Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 11%, UKIP 26%
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/449303520756662272
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
Let them decide first, then we worry about the HoC. This idea that Labour cannot win in England is just poppycock. In only two Labour victories since WW2 has Labour not carried England. It would hav been the largest party still.
It is crystal clear that there has been a CON to LAB swing in England since 2010.
However, it is crystal clear that there has been a LAB to SNP swing in Scotland since 2010.
And there is even some evidence that there has been a small LAB to CON swing in Scotland since 2010.
So, that just leaves the poor old SLDs for SLab to thump.
Labour’s right is rumbling. Not before time.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/03/27/labours-right-is-rumbling-not-before-time/#more-18069
Cadbury Flake advert from 2010 that was never aired:
vimeo.com/21190241
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/news/1012082/
The Labour leader will say the UK's energy market is "broken", with many firms lacking even "basic protections".'
Crippling bills? That can be blamed in part on all the lovely 'Green' extras - take a bow Ed Miliband, former Climate Secretary.
As for broken energy markets, on who's watch were the Big 6 allowed to dominate proceedings? Oh yes, step forward again Mr Miliband.
He really is a twerp.
New best prices:
Con 8/11 (Lad)
LD 7/5 (PP)
UKIP 80/1 (PP)
Lab 100/1 (Lad)
Labour have a 7,449 majority over Con with the SNP in 3rd place. If they manage to leak votes to both then it could end up tight. Lab still FAV, but far from safe. Where the 4,608 former Lib Dem votes go will probably be decisive, cos damn few will be staying in the SLD column.
Nailed on Con Gain
However, not one I expect them to gain as it stands
In terms of the UK, it's not at all clear that the entire Lib Dem vote is left-wing. So the whole premise falls apart anyway.
Best prices - North Warwickshire (Con maj = 54)
Lab 1/3 (Lad)
Con 7/2 (PP)
UKIP 50/1 (Lad)
LD 100/1 (Lad, PP)
BNP 200/1 (PP)
CCHQ Press Office @CCHQPress
Mick Hucknall: I seem to recall Ed Miliband was energy minister when these cartels were created... #BBCQT
Someone wasn't doing their job.... either too lazy or overconfident, I think its probably both.
Lab 22 (+9)
UKIP 20 (+7)
Con 18 (-8)
LibDem 6 (-5)
Grn 1 (-1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
one of the better polls for the LDs
Sort of seat they must take if they are to win/be largest party
Hearing Labour recycling their price freeze rubbish today was bordering on sad. The world moves on and Labour seem increasingly out of contact with it. And that is despite the best attempts of Ed Davey who was deeply unimpressive this morning on Today.
LD 7/5 (PP)
Up until last week you could have got LD 2/1 over at Stan James.
SUNDERLAND St Anne's
Jacqui GALLAGHER (Labour Party Candidate) 945 (48.1%)
Aileen CASEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 555 (28.2%)
Tony MORRISSEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 345 (17.6%)
Emily BLYTH (Green Party) 120 (6.1%)
As I think you commented downthread only the tories and the SNP seem to have no doubts at all on this one. Labour are the key swing constituency and they are deeply divided and poorly led.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 8s
SUNDERLAND ST ANNES RESULT (LAB HOLD) LAB 48% UKIP 28%
CON 18% GREEN 6%
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
Dimbleby: 'Is there a house price boom?' Mick Hucknall: 'I actually don't know.' Dimbers: 'Sorry I asked.' This is going well #bbcqt
The campaign for self-government is a noble cause. Labour used to support noble causes.
The story we're told about the protests gripping Kiev bears only the sketchiest relationship with reality
We've been here before. For the past couple of months street protests in Ukraine have been played out through the western media according to a well-rehearsed script. Pro-democracy campaigners are battling an authoritarian government. The demonstrators are demanding the right to be part of the European Union. But Russia's president Vladimir Putin has vetoed their chance of freedom and prosperity.
It's a story we've heard in one form or another again and again – not least in Ukraine's western-backed Orange revolution a decade ago. But it bears only the sketchiest relationship to reality. EU membership has never been – and very likely never will be – on offer to Ukraine. As in Egypt last year, the president that the protesters want to force out was elected in a poll judged fair by international observers. And many of those on the streets aren't very keen on democracy at all.
You'd never know from most of the reporting that far-right nationalists and fascists have been at the heart of the protests and attacks on government buildings. One of the three main opposition parties heading the campaign is the hard-right antisemitic Svoboda, whose leader Oleh Tyahnybok claims that a "Moscow-Jewish mafia" controls Ukraine. But US senator John McCain was happy to share a platform with him in Kiev last month. The party, now running the city of Lviv, led a 15,000-strong torchlit march earlier this month in memory of the Ukrainian fascist leader Stepan Bandera, whose forces fought with the Nazis in the second world war and took part in massacres of Jews.
Whether that calms or feeds the unrest will be clear soon enough. But the risk of the conflict spreading – leading political figures have warned of civil war – is serious. There are other steps that could help defuse the crisis: the creation of a broad coalition government, a referendum on EU relations, a shift from a presidential to a parliamentary system and greater regional autonomy.
The breakup of Ukraine would not be a purely Ukrainian affair. Along with China's emerging challenge to US domination of east Asia, the Ukrainian faultine has the potential to draw in outside powers and lead to a strategic clash. Only Ukrainians can overcome this crisis. Continuing outside interference is both provocative and dangerous.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/29/ukraine-fascists-oligarchs-eu-nato-expansion
The lead jumps around, hitting 1 point repeatedly, but that's just not good enough. We need a zero - just one, we could swap it for a two-point lead the next day just to even things out - and by any reasonable statistical fluke, we should have had one by now.
Grrr...
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {42%} [46%] (45%)
•Chris Christie (R) 41% {41%} [37%] (40%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {49%} (51%)
•Rand Paul (R) 42% {40%} (37%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
•Jeb Bush (R) 39%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
•Mike Huckabee (R) 41%
Yawn.
And it seems to have come mostly from Labour. The Con vote held up pretty well.
"Europe - The Final Countdown for Nick and Nigel?"
The Tories must have found another 18% somewhere and the lab drop is down to Thatcher being evil
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
So either the most recent polls are all outliers or we're beginning to see of a repeat of that for this May.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10725947/David-Cameron-facing-calls-to-expel-jobless-EU-migrants.html
Self-confessed rap music fan and Education Secretary Michael Gove impresses pupils with his vocal skills as he performs part of the Wham Rap! when quizzed by students.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schoolreport/26774451
The last thing the Germans want is to be left virtually alone in the EU as the last major pro-business, pro-prosperity country.
What's the problem?
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
So @mjhucknall likes Help To Buy and gay marriage, but not energy price freezes and can't say if there's a housing bubble. He's a Cameroon
If that was the case we'd surely have seen just a smidgeon of Cast Iron evidence of that.
Many, many, many times before.
Best prices - Torbay (LD maj = 4,078)
LD 1/2 (PP)
Con 9/4 (Lad)
UKIP 50/1 (Lad)
Grn 100/1
Lab 100/1
BNP 100/1
The party of government are 1% behind a year out, they are within MOE of winning a mid term election and I have posted my reasons for expecting the situation to improve for them.
Berwick swung 8% to Tory in 2010, the incumbency effect for the 40 year MP is now going, the Lib Dems are polling half their 2010 vote. Saying the Tories will take the seat is not spam, it's simple political logic.
Now, debate the point if you want, but if you just want to bleat because you disagree or flame people because you are sociopathic, go and find someone who gives a crap.
Oh,,and as part of my spamathon, I predicted Tory gvt NOM, not anything like a sixty seater. Don't confuse me with Ave It
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/95368/the_guardian_thursday_27th_march_2014.html