The BBC is giving wall to wall coverage of the security lapse farce. And this is OK. But it doesn't tell us anything at all we didn't know before but merely confirms what we thought about their character and competence.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
The USA cannot become a rogue state. Excepting that overfriendliness with KSA does have its own heritage within UK foreign policy, the US decides who is a rogue state and who isn't.
Not as far as we're concerned, it doesn't.
Absolutely as far as we're concerned it does. Name a single occasion that we have differed from the US on who is a rogue state.
Grenada
Rather more significantly, Vietnam.
I was going to say Canada, but we’re not showing much evidence of differing so far.
I doubt we'll take part in the invasion...
I would hope we take part in resisting it.
Greenland is first. By indirect means and then eventually through coercion. Watch as we do bugger all.
The BBC is giving wall to wall coverage of the security lapse farce. And this is OK. But it doesn't tell us anything at all we didn't know before but merely confirms what we thought about their character and competence.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
The USA cannot become a rogue state. Excepting that overfriendliness with KSA does have its own heritage within UK foreign policy, the US decides who is a rogue state and who isn't.
Not as far as we're concerned, it doesn't.
Absolutely as far as we're concerned it does. Name a single occasion that we have differed from the US on who is a rogue state.
Grenada
Accepting that as a benchmark (I know little about it except they invaded without warning Thatcher), you are saying that we have not differed from the US on anyone's 'roguedom' for over 4 decades. And even with a relatively independent-minded leader like Thatcher we'd have probably 'caught up'.
We do what America says. The only confusion at the moment is that Trump is an anti-establishment leader, so what's left of the US and global establisment is now on a different page to the White House. If Trump’s way sticks, it will be State visits for Mad Vlad and the Foreign Secretary trumpeting the huge and welcome decline in the latest figures for people being pushed out of windows, the same way we applaud the Saudis when they let women drive.
You're missing the point which is that we didn't - and don't - have to.
The disaster in Iraq is one which we might well have avoided, had the government at the time been different. It was certainly not without considerable opposition on both sides of the House, and among the electorate.
I think if our friend HYUFD was here he'd suggest that that would have meant that Saddam Hussein ...... or by now probably one of his sons ....,., would still be in power in Iraq. I'm not entirely sure which would have been worse for the ordinary Iraqi in the coffee house.
It’s one of the more interesting alternative histories.
I assume Saddam would have remained in power until 2011. Then the Arab Spring would have engulfed Iraq as it did Syria and North Africa. Saddam would have reacted brutally.
Would Western countries have intervened then? Probably. What about Turkey, or Iran in the South? There would probably have been no ISIS because they were the heirs to AQ in Iraq.
And likely no many millions of refugees, and possibly no Brexit.
The BBC is giving wall to wall coverage of the security lapse farce. And this is OK. But it doesn't tell us anything at all we didn't know before but merely confirms what we thought about their character and competence.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
The USA cannot become a rogue state. Excepting that overfriendliness with KSA does have its own heritage within UK foreign policy, the US decides who is a rogue state and who isn't.
Not as far as we're concerned, it doesn't.
Absolutely as far as we're concerned it does. Name a single occasion that we have differed from the US on who is a rogue state.
Grenada
Accepting that as a benchmark (I know little about it except they invaded without warning Thatcher), you are saying that we have not differed from the US on anyone's 'roguedom' for over 4 decades. And even with a relatively independent-minded leader like Thatcher we'd have probably 'caught up'.
We do what America says. The only confusion at the moment is that Trump is an anti-establishment leader, so what's left of the US and global establisment is now on a different page to the White House. If Trump’s way sticks, it will be State visits for Mad Vlad and the Foreign Secretary trumpeting the huge and welcome decline in the latest figures for people being pushed out of windows, the same way we applaud the Saudis when they let women drive.
You're missing the point which is that we didn't - and don't - have to.
The disaster in Iraq is one which we might well have avoided, had the government at the time been different. It was certainly not without considerable opposition on both sides of the House, and among the electorate.
I think if our friend HYUFD was here he'd suggest that that would have meant that Saddam Hussein ...... or by now probably one of his sons ....,., would still be in power in Iraq. I'm not entirely sure which would have been worse for the ordinary Iraqi in the coffee house.
It’s one of the more interesting alternative histories.
I assume Saddam would have remained in power until 2011. Then the Arab Spring would have engulfed Iraq as it did Syria and North Africa. Saddam would have reacted brutally.
Would Western countries have intervened then? Probably. What about Turkey, or Iran in the South? There would probably have been no ISIS because they were the heirs to AQ in Iraq.
Turkey would have had a problem because by intervening they would have, effectively, been supporting the Kurds.
The BBC is giving wall to wall coverage of the security lapse farce. And this is OK. But it doesn't tell us anything at all we didn't know before but merely confirms what we thought about their character and competence.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
The USA cannot become a rogue state. Excepting that overfriendliness with KSA does have its own heritage within UK foreign policy, the US decides who is a rogue state and who isn't.
Not as far as we're concerned, it doesn't.
Absolutely as far as we're concerned it does. Name a single occasion that we have differed from the US on who is a rogue state.
Grenada
Accepting that as a benchmark (I know little about it except they invaded without warning Thatcher), you are saying that we have not differed from the US on anyone's 'roguedom' for over 4 decades. And even with a relatively independent-minded leader like Thatcher we'd have probably 'caught up'.
We do what America says. The only confusion at the moment is that Trump is an anti-establishment leader, so what's left of the US and global establisment is now on a different page to the White House. If Trump’s way sticks, it will be State visits for Mad Vlad and the Foreign Secretary trumpeting the huge and welcome decline in the latest figures for people being pushed out of windows, the same way we applaud the Saudis when they let women drive.
You're missing the point which is that we didn't - and don't - have to.
The disaster in Iraq is one which we might well have avoided, had the government at the time been different. It was certainly not without considerable opposition on both sides of the House, and among the electorate.
I think if our friend HYUFD was here he'd suggest that that would have meant that Saddam Hussein ...... or by now probably one of his sons ....,., would still be in power in Iraq. I'm not entirely sure which would have been worse for the ordinary Iraqi in the coffee house.
It’s one of the more interesting alternative histories.
I assume Saddam would have remained in power until 2011. Then the Arab Spring would have engulfed Iraq as it did Syria and North Africa. Saddam would have reacted brutally.
Would Western countries have intervened then? Probably. What about Turkey, or Iran in the South? There would probably have been no ISIS because they were the heirs to AQ in Iraq.
And likely no many millions of refugees, and possibly no Brexit.
These are eye watering figures, on something that's both unnecessary, and economically unproductive.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnj42z90wo The government will end a contract worth £2bn a year with one of the largest providers of hotel asylum accommodation after the Home Office said an audit identified concerns about the company's performance. Stay Belvedere Hotels (SBHL) provides around a quarter of Home Office asylum accommodation across 51 hotels in England and Wales, and also operates Napier Barracks in Ken..
It's mad. For 2bn pounds/year think how many hotels we could build.
That's only a quarter of the accommodation. £8bn every year, in total.
Imagine if we'd trained some of them and put them to work the housing that we don't have sufficient trained workers to build. Rather than paying to keep them in enforced idleness.
Or simply processed their claims speedily, one way or the other.
No, no, no. We can't create an even bigger pull factor for asylum seekers. We need to get deporting the ones we have, not making more of them want to come here.
The problem is we're not dealing with the current pull factors. It still astonishes me that people are willing to cross the channel in an inflatable to come to the UK. I think Labour need to introduce some bonkers draconian law that fines people £5k for accepting a deliveroo meal/car wash from an illegal immigrant - just nuke all the demand for cheap illicit labour.
Why are you surprised? Despite all the doom shit, life in the U.K. is an order of magnitude better than many, many countries.
We are discussing issues of having trouble funding £250k per child, 24/7 care for some vulnerable children. In most countries they would be somewhere between dead and kept in a what would look like a horrible prison to you or me.
Migrants get put in slightly down at heal hotels - the kind of places where the gym is treadmills next to the smallish indoor pool. In much of the world countries, migrants are just left to starve or survive.
We complain about the NHS. But free, high end healthcare is very far from universal.
As to your suggestion, I’ve long advocated the following
1) 100K fine for undocumented workers. 2) Director of companies personally liable (so no Ltd escape) 3) half the fine goes to the witness 4) witness gets indefinite leave to remain on conviction.
That would collapse the black economy in about 10 minutes.
Incidentally - forget about the boats. The real scandal (numbers) is in companies selling visas.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
On topic, the odds look as if there is value in backing the Canadian Liberals. A lot can happen in the campaign but, firstly, momentum matters and, secondly, the market is most seats and the Liberal vote has been more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote in recent elections.
In both 2021 and 2019, Conservatives had a very slender vote share lead of around 1% but were 36 and 41 seats behind. The 2022 boundary review gave a notional net Conservative gain of about ten seats, but Liberals remain more likely than the Conservatives to win most seats despite being narrowly behind on vote share.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary. https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1904296565562343430
The most telling part of the US group chat debacle (which won't be fully publicly acknowledged for a while yet) is that Trumpski has no fucking clue what is going on.
When the story broke, he said he didn't know anything about it, but if you read the chat it's clear he wasn't in that conversation either.
A senile old man nominally in charge
The President isn’t usually in discussions between advisers. They recommend, POTUS decides
It's has been blatantly obvious what sort of thing would happen for months and months.
The fools in the USA elect the Mickey Mouse Club to govern them, and it's going to hell in a handcart. Surprise ! Who knew? Only the entire effing world if they had the eyes to see.
One of Trump's criminal trials was for stealing top secret material, lying to the FBI about it, and giving it to foreigners for personal benefit. Back in November he refused to put his transition team through standard security clearance.
Why did Times Radio not get this? What did they expect?
(Rant over)
TBF to Times Radio output (including Youtube stuff) they are far more on the ball about the internal USA coup than the BBC. Today's story is getting priominence - fine - but in the overall scheme of developments in USA governance it is a tiny story, only reminding us that the cast are both malign and useless; which, as you say, we knew.
Hopefully we will see more of him running the line at the St Mirren stadium, where we can hurl abuse at him. Though they tend to give him the line in front of the main stand , not the North Bank Aggro.
Hello everybody. I've uploaded an essay wot I wrote called "The Matter Of Britain" on the evolution of the nation-state since the Dark Ages. @rcs1000 and @TheScreamingEagles are aware. It is about 1600 words and is within the @ydoethur limit. If the mods agree I'm hoping for a publication for next Sunday. If anybody wants to be a pre-reader just click on "like" and I'll send you a link.
With all these endlessly long headers from you and @ydoethur, I hope I'm going to get grovelling apologies for the many times you've criticised the length of mine.
I have never been given a word limit by OGH BTW.
OGH (as do I) love your pieces.
There is no word limit, OGH said that an ideal piece should be around 600 to 800 words but that’s not a hard and fast limit.
This really doesn’t apply to you but threads shouldn’t read like a Wikipedia article.
We once received a guest submission that was 4,000 words long, and spent 1,000 words talking about how general elections are conducted in the UK, stuff we already knew,
Every time we read one of your pieces, every paragraph is telling us something we didn’t know already.
Lol. That comes out as Tories largest Party on 183. Tory/Reform majority of 14.
What a gilded age of sober and reflective government we would enjoy with a tory/Fukker coalition loaded to the gunwales with thick-as-pigshit chavs and reactionary cranks. All operating on a thin majority that gives every obstreperous crackpot MP immense power.
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be a fat ITV viewer was very heaven.
But at least we will still have avoided chaos under Ed Milliband!
On topic, the odds look as if there is value in backing the Canadian Liberals. A lot can happen in the campaign but, firstly, momentum matters and, secondly, the market is most seats and the Liberal vote has been more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote in recent elections.
In both 2021 and 2019, Conservatives had a very slender vote share lead of around 1% but were 36 and 41 seats behind. The 2022 boundary review gave a notional net Conservative gain of about ten seats, but Liberals remain more likely than the Conservatives to win most seats despite being narrowly behind on vote share.
The one thing that Canadian psephologists will certainly be recalling is that the Conservatives had pulled back into a brief lead from deep unpopularity after a leader change at the start of the 1993 GE campaign, and then it all unwound in the campaign itself.
Carney feels solid and one imagined wouldn't suffer the same fate to anything like the same extent, but it must be in back of Liberal strategists' minds.
Stephen Miller suggesting that the USA need to surcharge Europe for the cost of Suez Canal related attack on the Houthi rebels.
Only when they have compensated the UK for consequential damages from the last Suez campaign
Ive thought for a long term it would be delicious to bring back the US leaders from the postwar period and show them the world over the last 20 odd years and ask them if they still think it was a good idea to force and cajole the European powers to give up empire.
Just think how much easier it would be if the Far East had big chunks still in British or French hands, the Middle East under allied nations’ control, Africa without Chinese and Russian influence as they are happily run by friendly European nations.
So when they complain about the cost of being the world’s policeman they need to remember there were other Deputies they ran out of town who would now be sharing the load.
The most telling part of the US group chat debacle (which won't be fully publicly acknowledged for a while yet) is that Trumpski has no fucking clue what is going on.
When the story broke, he said he didn't know anything about it, but if you read the chat it's clear he wasn't in that conversation either.
A senile old man nominally in charge
The President isn’t usually in discussions between advisers. They recommend, POTUS decides
Wy would he waste time reading Signal messages full of emojis when there's golf to play?
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
Is the tactical voting function on EC broken for everyone or just me? Turning on UNS gives you a very different result.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary. https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1904296565562343430
Correct. This was the type of "beyond your jurisdiction" point George W Bush fought a legal war on when the lawyers for the detainees in Guantanamo (it's why they were in Guantanamo not say Fort Hood) tried things like Habeas Corpus.
Constitution and case law is that there is a right to due process to determine whether such a categorisation applies. This was the basis of Judge Boasberg's ruling I linked to earlier:
("Challenge likely to succeed at full hearing" and "Applicant will suffer irreparable harm if an injunction is not imposed" are the criteria for an interim injunction to be applied.)
The Court need not resolve the thorny question of whether the judiciary has the authority to assess this claim in the first place. That is because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on another equally fundamental theory: before they may be deported, they are entitled to individualized hearings to determine whether the Act applies to them at all. As the Government itself concedes, the awesome power granted by the Act may be brought to bear only on those who are, in fact, “alien enemies.”
And the Supreme Court and this Circuit have long maintained that federal courts are equipped to adjudicate that question when individuals threatened with detention and removal challenge their designation as such. Because the named Plaintiffs dispute that they are members of Tren de Aragua, they may not be deported until a court has been able to decide the merits of their challenge. Nor may any members of the provisionally certified class be removed until they have been given the opportunity to challenge their designations as well. The Motion to Vacate will thus be denied.
But they won't imo be stopped in their tracks with these abuses until Trump's cabinet or high officers start getting serious contempt of court penalties eg a Cabinet Member in detention until a defied Court Order is implemented.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary. https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1904296565562343430
It’s all be done before
The 30 Tyrants, in Ancient Athens, limited trial to citizens.
Then struck people off the roll of citizens, before summary execution.
The weird thing about this regime is that the more they proclaim a white, Christian, European vision of America, the more they hate Europe. There must be some kind of psychology thesis to be written about this.
Vance seems to simultaneously hate his own background and hate the world he has joined.
He also hates immigration and multiculturalism while being married to the daughter of Indian immigrants. He seems to be quite a conflicted individual.
I think Vance wants to be hailed as some sort of 'philosopher prince'.
His writings (see the one that was linked to recently about his conversion to Catholicism) seem to show a need to boast about what he has achieved and what he knows.
More generally Washington resembles a Tudor court more than a modern government.
Trump has all the insecure, grandiose, erratic narcissism of late stage Henry VIII.
Mike Pence / Thomas More as the former favourite who chose his conscience over his master orders.
Vance as the Thomas Cromwell figure - low born and talented but always looked down on by those born to privilege.
The likes of Musk, Rubio, Hegseth scheming for position as the Howards, Seymours and such like did.
There's even a weak ineffective legislature and a threatened judicial system.
V good.
Actually there was a whole piece a few weeks ago about how Russell Vought is the Thomas Cromwell figure.
Matt Gaetz could be the equivalent of Richard Rich:
Since the mid-16th century Rich has had a reputation for immorality, financial dishonesty, double-dealing, perjury and treachery rarely matched in English history. The historian Hugh Trevor-Roper called Rich a man "of whom nobody has ever spoken a good word".
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary. https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1904296565562343430
Correct. This was the type of "beyond your jurisdiction" point George W Bush fought a legal war on when the lawyers for the detainees in Guantanamo (it's why they were in Guantanamo not say Fort Hood) tried things like Habeas Corpus.
Constitution and case law is that there is a right to due process to determine whether such a categorisation applies. This was the basis of Judge Boasberg's ruling I linked to earlier:
("Challenge likely to succeed at full hearing" and "Applicant will suffer irreparable harm if an injunction is not imposed" are the criteria for an interim injunction to be applied.)
The Court need not resolve the thorny question of whether the judiciary has the authority to assess this claim in the first place. That is because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on another equally fundamental theory: before they may be deported, they are entitled to individualized hearings to determine whether the Act applies to them at all. As the Government itself concedes, the awesome power granted by the Act may be brought to bear only on those who are, in fact, “alien enemies.”
And the Supreme Court and this Circuit have long maintained that federal courts are equipped to adjudicate that question when individuals threatened with detention and removal challenge their designation as such. Because the named Plaintiffs dispute that they are members of Tren de Aragua, they may not be deported until a court has been able to decide the merits of their challenge. Nor may any members of the provisionally certified class be removed until they have been given the opportunity to challenge their designations as well. The Motion to Vacate will thus be denied.
But they won't imo be stopped in their tracks with these abuses until Trump's cabinet or high officers start getting serious contempt of court penalties eg a Cabinet Member in detention until a defied Court Order is implemented.
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
Lol. That comes out as Tories largest Party on 183. Tory/Reform majority of 14.
The reality is that nobody knows what such a vote share would produce, because so many seats would have tiny majorities. vote efficiency would be all: and having good "transferability" could make a huge difference.
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
Is the tactical voting function on EC broken for everyone or just me? Turning on UNS gives you a very different result.
Doubt either model can cope with current OP numbers, it's a long way from the numbers it was based on
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
Hardly. Three parties on 20-something % of the vote each get 20-something % of the seats.
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
When it becomes a Con/Ref race, a lot of decent centrists will have to swing behind Badenoch to stop Farage.
You might have missed that boat, with resurgent LDs just a handful of points behind the Tories. In fact that would perhaps explain Tories going nowhere as Labour and Farage crash and burn in this poll.
The weird thing about this regime is that the more they proclaim a white, Christian, European vision of America, the more they hate Europe. There must be some kind of psychology thesis to be written about this.
Vance seems to simultaneously hate his own background and hate the world he has joined.
He also hates immigration and multiculturalism while being married to the daughter of Indian immigrants. He seems to be quite a conflicted individual.
I think Vance wants to be hailed as some sort of 'philosopher prince'.
His writings (see the one that was linked to recently about his conversion to Catholicism) seem to show a need to boast about what he has achieved and what he knows.
More generally Washington resembles a Tudor court more than a modern government.
Trump has all the insecure, grandiose, erratic narcissism of late stage Henry VIII.
Mike Pence / Thomas More as the former favourite who chose his conscience over his master orders.
Vance as the Thomas Cromwell figure - low born and talented but always looked down on by those born to privilege.
The likes of Musk, Rubio, Hegseth scheming for position as the Howards, Seymours and such like did.
There's even a weak ineffective legislature and a threatened judicial system.
V good.
Actually there was a whole piece a few weeks ago about how Russell Vought is the Thomas Cromwell figure.
Matt Gaetz could be the equivalent of Richard Rich:
Since the mid-16th century Rich has had a reputation for immorality, financial dishonesty, double-dealing, perjury and treachery rarely matched in English history. The historian Hugh Trevor-Roper called Rich a man "of whom nobody has ever spoken a good word".
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
Maybe, maybe not. I do enjoy watching Tory optimism in the face of historically low support. I am still waiting for the inevitable swingback at the last election.
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
When it becomes a Con/Ref race, a lot of decent centrists will have to swing behind Badenoch to stop Farage.
You might have missed that boat, with resurgent LDs just a handful of points behind the Tories. In fact that would perhaps explain Tories going nowhere as Labour and Farage crash and burn in this poll.
You can say they same about their position behind Labour and Reform
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
When it becomes a Con/Ref race, a lot of decent centrists will have to swing behind Badenoch to stop Farage.
You might have missed that boat, with resurgent LDs just a handful of points behind the Tories. In fact that would perhaps explain Tories going nowhere as Labour and Farage crash and burn in this poll.
You can say they same about their position behind Labour and Reform
So in order to beat Reform why would Libs and Labs support the moribund Tories when they can fall in behind the surging Libs?
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
Yes, I think that will happen in Ref-Con battlegrounds (of which there are a few in the East). In fact you could see Labour voters also tactically voting Tory. Weird prospect but not unheard of given it’s been common in Scotland for sometime.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama, Mexico and Canada.
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
Maybe, maybe not. I do enjoy watching Tory optimism in the face of historically low support. I am still waiting for the inevitable swingback at the last election.
Labour has managed to lose around 12% from it's polling share in 9 months.
One more screw up from Reeves tomorrow and you could well reach the point of no return...
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I wonder if we could see Con/Ref battling it out for the lead and Lab/Lib crossover after Reeves' statement tomorrow?
Maybe, maybe not. I do enjoy watching Tory optimism in the face of historically low support. I am still waiting for the inevitable swingback at the last election.
Labour has managed to lose around 12% from it's polling share in 9 months.
One more screw up from Reeves tomorrow and you could well reach the point of no return...
Not me mate. Remarkable that according to PBers (and they may be right) that Labour has no floor whilst the Tories have a floor of circa 30. Oh wait...
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
I think that's right: the two "centre" parties in this world, are LibDem and the Conservatives, and they potentially benefit from tactically voting.
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama, Mexico and Canada.
He could also intervene in South Africa to support a breakaway Western Cape.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Last time I asked my wife for permission to go on a boys weekend…
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
I think that's right: the two "centre" parties in this world, are LibDem and the Conservatives, and they potentially benefit from tactically voting.
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
Don't voters have to stop hating the Tories before that applies? Is the nation hating Labour as much as the Tories enough?
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
I think that's right: the two "centre" parties in this world, are LibDem and the Conservatives, and they potentially benefit from tactically voting.
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
I think Reform are unlikely to be below 20% at the next election given they got 15% last time.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
So long as it doesn't dent his chances to win a Nobel Peace Prize he won't care.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Send me a cheque for £10k, and I'll furnish you with full details.
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
I think Reform are unlikely to be below 20% at the next election given they got 15% last time.
Unless they do actually throw Nigel over the side and/or he decides to quit mid-Parliament (something I've always thought is quite likely)
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
A very modest lawyer got his shoe bill included as allowable expenses?
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I’m not even sure it’s an accidental leak
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I’m not even sure it’s an accidental leak
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
I think that's right: the two "centre" parties in this world, are LibDem and the Conservatives, and they potentially benefit from tactically voting.
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
Don't voters have to stop hating the Tories before that applies? Is the nation hating Labour as much as the Tories enough?
Gogglebox's easy charm and her almost unique ability to connect the concerns of the British people with coherent and appealing policies should see them rehabilitated in the public consciousness quite soon.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
So long as it doesn't dent his chances to win a Nobel Peace Prize he won't care.
About time the Nobel Committee issued a press release.
"To the Presdient of the United States:
You are never getting a Peace Prize.
Get over it.
Your chances of one for Economics don't look too rosy either.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
So long as it doesn't dent his chances to win a Nobel Peace Prize he won't care.
His chance of winning the Nobel Peace prize is more dented than that shitty green Rover in Father Ted.
Let’s face it, Diane Abbott is going to win the Nobel Prize for Mathmatics before Trump wins the Peace Prize.
Electoral calculus has Con as the biggest party on 183 Seats but short of an overall majority by 143. A Con/Ref government looks viable with 183 and 150 seats respectively, but in reality who knows?
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
FPTP means the actual vote shares would be different. Labour and Con probably higher, Green and Ref probably lower, LD and SNP probably similar. But it would certainly give us an odd national picture. It would all come down to who has the most efficiently distributed votes.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
What you also have to think though, is that tactical voting may not be one way in the next election.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
I think that's right: the two "centre" parties in this world, are LibDem and the Conservatives, and they potentially benefit from tactically voting.
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
Don't voters have to stop hating the Tories before that applies? Is the nation hating Labour as much as the Tories enough?
Gogglebox's easy charm and her almost unique ability to connect the concerns of the British people with coherent and appealing policies should see them rehabilitated in the public consciousness quite soon.
Fair enough. I'd missed "the easy charm and her almost unique ability to connect the concerns of the British people".
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
So long as it doesn't dent his chances to win a Nobel Peace Prize he won't care.
About time the Nobel Committee issued a press release.
"To the Presdient of the United States:
You are never getting a Peace Prize.
Get over it.
Your chances of one for Economics don't look too rosy either.
The Committee."
"...but the Kenyan- Irish O'Bama guy won one and he was never a president because of birth right disqualification."
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Is that the first poll in recent times where LD+G is in the lead?
Certainly a strikingly good performance from the LDs in midterm and when there’s nothing particular that they’ve had recent publicity for. It suggests that disillusioned Labour voters could be a promising source of swing for them - historically such folks have mostly switched straight to the Tories, but the Tories’ enduring toxicity must be stemming that flow.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Sam Dumitru has extensively written about this.
Copilot tells me £98 million was land purchasing, £20 million in technical surveys and £30 million on consultations.
It told me to piss off when I pointed out that doesn't add up.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
So long as it doesn't dent his chances to win a Nobel Peace Prize he won't care.
His chance of winning the Nobel Peace prize is more dented than that shitty green Rover in Father Ted.
Let’s face it, Diane Abbott is going to win the Nobel Prize for Mathmatics before Trump wins the Peace Prize.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I’m not even sure it’s an accidental leak
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
Yeah of course that is what happened. I can imagine the discussion now:
'Tell you what chaps, these Europeans don't seem to have understood the umpteen references to us not wanting to defend them, why don't we all make ourselves liable for a prison sentence and make ourselves look completely incompetent by leaking in advance our plans to bomb an enemy and even give them the possibility to defend themselves and shoot down our planes/missiles, by sneaking in a reference to not liking Europeans which may never see the light of day. What harm can it cause?'
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama, Mexico and Canada.
He could also intervene in South Africa to support a breakaway Western Cape.
I do think there'll be plenty of using his big arsenal against soft targets overseas. Playing the tough guy will sometimes win out over isolationism.
Best thing Reeves could do for the UK during the Spring statement is to announce that the UK is to enter negotiations with the EU with the aim of rejoining the single market.
Brexit has been an utter failure: not even it’s most ardent boosters can find anything positive to say about it: it’s a self-inflicted wound that we no longer have the luxury of pretending we can afford. It’s time to rejoin.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Sam Dumitru has extensively written about this.
Copilot tells me £98 million was land purchasing, £20 million in technical surveys and £30 million on consultations.
It told me to piss off when I pointed out that doesn't add up.
Its not good that we have lots of sewage discharge into rivers and the sea, usually during heaving rain. But part of the issue has been the recent change to accurate measurement and reporting which has highlighted the issue (and will hopefully help us address this). In my town a huge hole has been created to catch excess flow in heavy rain to stop sewage entering the Wylie. More of this needs doing everywhere.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I’m not even sure it’s an accidental leak
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
Wouldn't it just be easier for them to say that, in that case? But then they already have. No sane government is relying on the US right now for protection.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Sam Dumitru has extensively written about this.
Copilot tells me £98 million was land purchasing, £20 million in technical surveys and £30 million on consultations.
It told me to piss off when I pointed out that doesn't add up.
Well quite
I start every query with "don't be an Americanised over-friendly slimy git". Improves the experience immensely. On a serious note, it does seem very hard to substantiate the £300 million figure. Dunno where it has come from.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
I subscribe to the view that Donald Trump’s number one objective is to dominate the news cycle all day and every day. That's a worry when you consider what it will take to do this for four years. I can envisage a time when we come to yearn for the relatively sober early weeks of his tenure when all we had to fret about was him subverting American democracy, ripping up the western alliance, surrendering Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, ethnic cleansing the Palestinians, paralysing world trade, and invading Greenland, Panama and Mexico and Canada.
I return to the question Mark asked earlier, "How long will Trump tolerate his cabinet making him look like an idiot?", and the answer is 'a minimum of 4 years' if he is even aware of it
I don't think he gives a shit about Signalgate. He doesn't know anything about it, the Atlantic is a failing rag, etc. There will definitely be no legal or disciplinary consequences for anyone involved.
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I’m not even sure it’s an accidental leak
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
I’d stick to eating and drinking, if I were you, and leave the analysis to others.
Best thing Reeves could do for the UK during the Spring statement is to announce that the UK is to enter negotiations with the EU with the aim of rejoining the single market.
Brexit has been an utter failure: not even it’s most ardent boosters can find anything positive to say about it: it’s a self-inflicted wound that we no longer have the luxury of pretending we can afford. It’s time to rejoin.
It wouldn't be particularly good for us as we're holding a metric tonne of Euros, but the rise in Sterling would be quite something if all that was announced which would make the inflation forecast and linked gov't borrowing costs all go the right way for Reeves. It'd as good as create cash out of thin air for the Chancellor.
Is that the first poll in recent times where LD+G is in the lead?
Certainly a strikingly good performance from the LDs in midterm and when there’s nothing particular that they’ve had recent publicity for. It suggests that disillusioned Labour voters could be a promising source of swing for them - historically such folks have mostly switched straight to the Tories, but the Tories’ enduring toxicity must be stemming that flow.
The Lib Dems go through cycles in the political pundits’ consciousness:
For much of the time it’s “Lib Dems are invisible/irrelevant! Ed who? What’s the point of the Lib Dems?”,
Then occasionally we get “oh, that was a surprisingly strong showing for the Lib Dems” usually in local elections (though even then you’ll often have headlines dominated by Tory/Labour losses or Reform performance where the fact the yellows made most gains is a footnote).
Then, finally when those pesky sandal wearers get close to actual power, it’s a source of great irritation to all, and it’s time to put them back in their place. Then ignore them again. And so the cycle continues.
Max Kendix @MaxKendix · 19m EXC: The Lower Thames Crossing has been approved by the government. The £9billion project has been in the pipeline since 2009. £300m spent on the planning application alone.
How the hell can you spend £300m purely on a "planning application" ?
Because Britain, to quote @Gardenwalker has been taken over by Non-accountable Quangos, Non-accountable Lawyers and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Sam Dumitru has extensively written about this.
Copilot tells me £98 million was land purchasing, £20 million in technical surveys and £30 million on consultations.
It told me to piss off when I pointed out that doesn't add up.
Well quite
I start every query with "don't be an Americanised over-friendly slimy git". Improves the experience immensely.
When talking to AI, or more generally in your life?
Comments
We are discussing issues of having trouble funding £250k per child, 24/7 care for some vulnerable children. In most countries they would be somewhere between dead and kept in a what would look like a horrible prison to you or me.
Migrants get put in slightly down at heal hotels - the kind of places where the gym is treadmills next to the smallish indoor pool. In much of the world countries, migrants are just left to starve or survive.
We complain about the NHS. But free, high end healthcare is very far from universal.
As to your suggestion, I’ve long advocated the following
1) 100K fine for undocumented workers.
2) Director of companies personally liable (so no Ltd escape)
3) half the fine goes to the witness
4) witness gets indefinite leave to remain on conviction.
That would collapse the black economy in about 10 minutes.
Incidentally - forget about the boats. The real scandal (numbers) is in companies selling visas.
I see we have Erdogan, JD Vance's hero, running a live playbook for them of where Trump intends to take it next.
Erdogan has even had his potential opponent's Diploma revoked because to stand for President in Turkey you must have a Higher Education qualification.
Trump's parallel will be an attack on the Security Clearance of Judges, as he has already done for all his perceived personal enemies. Then they can't hear cases involving information he declares "State Secrets".
They've already invoked that as one stage of the obfuscation of the process in the case of the 'alleged terrorism gang members' - including the gay makeup artist with the Real Madrid logo tattoo - from Venezuela, sent to a notorious prison camp in El Salvador.
There was a seminal ruling on this one from Judge Boasberg.
The first 3 pages are a superb read - he did not even need to get to the case itself because the abuse of due process in the deportation is so blatant. Worth a read.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.278436/gov.uscourts.dcd.278436.53.0.pdf
In both 2021 and 2019, Conservatives had a very slender vote share lead of around 1% but were 36 and 41 seats behind. The 2022 boundary review gave a notional net Conservative gain of about ten seats, but Liberals remain more likely than the Conservatives to win most seats despite being narrowly behind on vote share.
Thank fck.
https://x.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/1904492515425714538?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1904296565562343430
Though they tend to give him the line in front of the main stand , not the North Bank Aggro.
There is no word limit, OGH said that an ideal piece should be around 600 to 800 words but that’s not a hard and fast limit.
This really doesn’t apply to you but threads shouldn’t read like a Wikipedia article.
We once received a guest submission that was 4,000 words long, and spent 1,000 words talking about how general elections are conducted in the UK, stuff we already knew,
Every time we read one of your pieces, every paragraph is telling us something we didn’t know already.
Carney feels solid and one imagined wouldn't suffer the same fate to anything like the same extent, but it must be in back of Liberal strategists' minds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1
Just think how much easier it would be if the Far East had big chunks still in British or French hands, the Middle East under allied nations’ control, Africa without Chinese and Russian influence as they are happily run by friendly European nations.
So when they complain about the cost of being the world’s policeman they need to remember there were other Deputies they ran out of town who would now be sharing the load.
https://x.com/MarkHam80780803/status/1904303598403760274
Surely on these numbers FPTP breaks down completely?
Constitution and case law is that there is a right to due process to determine whether such a categorisation applies. This was the basis of Judge Boasberg's ruling I linked to earlier:
("Challenge likely to succeed at full hearing" and "Applicant will suffer irreparable harm if an injunction is not imposed" are the criteria for an interim injunction to be applied.)
The Court need not resolve the thorny question of whether the judiciary has the authority to assess this claim in the first place. That is because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on another equally fundamental theory: before they may be deported, they are entitled to individualized hearings to determine whether the Act applies to them at all. As the Government itself concedes, the awesome power granted by the Act may be brought to bear only on those who are, in fact, “alien enemies.”
And the Supreme Court and this Circuit have long maintained that federal courts are equipped to adjudicate that question when individuals threatened with detention and removal challenge their designation as such. Because the named Plaintiffs dispute that they are members of Tren de Aragua, they may not be deported until a court has been able to decide the merits of their challenge. Nor may any members of the provisionally certified class be removed until they have been given the opportunity to challenge their designations as well. The Motion to Vacate will thus be denied.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.278436/gov.uscourts.dcd.278436.53.0.pdf
But they won't imo be stopped in their tracks with these abuses until Trump's cabinet or high officers start getting serious contempt of court penalties eg a Cabinet Member in detention until a defied Court Order is implemented.
IF PAST IS PROLOGUE, DONALD TRUMP WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO CHANGE THE NEWS CYCLE.
The 30 Tyrants, in Ancient Athens, limited trial to citizens.
Then struck people off the roll of citizens, before summary execution.
It’s LLG 49 (=), RefCon 44 (-2) which implies a bit of rounding going on.
So the “left” in its broadest sense leads the right in this poll. Others have them neck and neck or the right a touch ahead.
And it's in the effing Constitution. Twice.
Uniquely, I could see quite a bit of pro CON tactical voting from LIB especially, to try and keep out REF?
On our trip for lunch at Birmingham International before returning home for early evening and I would just say I have been with Kemi all along
Hope you had a nice time, Big G?
Last time I was at Birmingham International was went I went on holiday to Tenerife in 2023 and flew from there.
But doesn't she have an opposition to run ?
One more screw up from Reeves tomorrow and you could well reach the point of no return...
Or at least they would if the Conservatives improved their on the ground operation: "Only the Conservatives can Beat Reform / Labour" here,
PBCentristDads4Kemi
What DJT really cares about is his own personal grandeur and authority. Signalgate doesn't affect him in that way.
I wouldn't touch either with a bargepole.
A Trump ally told me that the discussion right now is over whether Pete Hegseth will need a pardon... not Waltz, even if he becomes the fall guy.
https://x.com/tarapalmeri/status/1904525401600192762
It’s quite convenient for the Trump Admin to get out the idea that they are REALLY done with defending Europe
and Non-accountable sub-contractors.
The system for large infra is a mess because of the practically unlimited JR powers the courts have, which even if not used create enormous lawyer make-work for stuff like this.
Sam Dumitru has extensively written about this.
"To the Presdient of the United States:
You are never getting a Peace Prize.
Get over it.
Your chances of one for Economics don't look too rosy either.
The Committee."
Let’s face it, Diane Abbott is going to win the Nobel Prize for Mathmatics before Trump wins the Peace Prize.
It told me to piss off when I pointed out that doesn't add up.
'Tell you what chaps, these Europeans don't seem to have understood the umpteen references to us not wanting to defend them, why don't we all make ourselves liable for a prison sentence and make ourselves look completely incompetent by leaking in advance our plans to bomb an enemy and even give them the possibility to defend themselves and shoot down our planes/missiles, by sneaking in a reference to not liking Europeans which may never see the light of day. What harm can it cause?'
'Yes. What a great idea. Go for it'
A Yale University study ranks the UK 1= out of 180 countries for drinking water and sanitation safety.
https://epi.yale.edu/measure/2024/H2O
And don't drink the water in Chad.
Brexit has been an utter failure: not even it’s most ardent boosters can find anything positive to say about it: it’s a self-inflicted wound that we no longer have the luxury of pretending we can afford. It’s time to rejoin.
For much of the time it’s “Lib Dems are invisible/irrelevant! Ed who? What’s the point of the Lib Dems?”,
Then occasionally we get “oh, that was a surprisingly strong showing for the Lib Dems” usually in local elections (though even then you’ll often have headlines dominated by Tory/Labour losses or Reform performance where the fact the yellows made most gains is a footnote).
Then, finally when those pesky sandal wearers get close to actual power, it’s a source of great irritation to all, and it’s time to put them back in their place. Then ignore them again. And so the cycle continues.