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Should we start adding a Trump effect to the polls and betting strategies? – politicalbetting.com

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,352
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    Migrants from the Big Island? :)
    Send em back to where they came from...
    I was actually just thinking that: do people swim across the Solent between the Isle of Wight and the mainland? It must be possible, but I haven't heard of anyone doing it. Perhaps it's just not noteworthy.

    (Last week I was invited to be on a cross-channel relay swim. I refused, but was pleased to have been asked. Not bad as I only learnt to swim 'properly' last year. :)
    Yes, they do. The former MP did it as a fundraiser some time back. The main hazard is of course all the shipping and boating.
    I did the Round the Island race quite a few years ago. My wife said aren't you afraid of drowning? I said there was far bigger chance of getting run over.
    I understand the safest route is to follow the Navy lanes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,972

    Christopher Webb
    @cwebbonline
    Trump and Republicans have awakened a sleeping giant—and they will regret it.

    REPUBLICAN TOWN HALL CHANT: “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich…”

    https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1902542629541441564

    Cut.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,986

    I used to canoe across from Hamble in a tiny collapsible canoe (ex military). The last time I did it, I had to back paddle to let the Queen Mary pass on its way to Southampton. Been a lurker for years, usually too busy to sustain a post, but, for once, got my mag out on time and might have time to respond to what my wife calls 'political porn'.

    The Berthon collapsible canoe was developed by a reverend from nearby Romsey. They're still made.

    (I only know this as there's a blue plaque to the designer in Romsey.)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berthon_Boat
    https://www.berthon.co.uk/about-berthon/berthon-history/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,969

    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    I don't want to puncture this immigration theory of everything, but those differential unemployment rates are probably related to age more than anything else, as London has a younger population and young people, lacking marketable experience, are much more likely to be unemployed (unemployment rate of 18-24yos is 13%, compared to 3% for over 50yos).

    But a younger population should also have a higher employment rate and London's is below average.

    You're right that people without marketable experience, and skills, will have higher unemployment but how many of London's current unemployed will ever gain those ?

    As opposed to becoming unemployable for life as they subsist on welfare while being replaced by the next wave of immigrants.
    London's employment rate is 74%, versus 75% UK average. That's exceptionally high if you consider the number of students in London. You misinterpreted the figures and now you're digging a big hole.

    What's remarkable about the UK is we have high employment rates, and low unemployment, despite the enormous levels of net migration over the last few years.
    That is because they are all registered as disabled to get higher benefits , you will not see that in other developed countries
    The economically inactive rate in the UK is 22.1%.

    That is lower than the EU average - 24.4%
    It is lower than France (24.8%), Spain (25%), USA (25.1%, Belgium (28.9%) and Italy (33.6%).

    Japan, Germany and Canada are doing better than us but we are in the top half of the OECD and G7 for economically active population.
    Unfortunately your data on others includes pensioners etc whilst UK is only up to age 64
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119
    Leon said:

    Help I think I’m in the ugliest most boring place on earth

    Withernsea loves you too....

    But at least, you've done the worst the world has to offer.

    a) you can write about it - to warn off anybody else (personally, now delighted I never bothered with the ferry from Buenos Aires)

    b) everywhere els you go will always be better.
  • Angus Reid just reflecting a huge polling swing to the Libs in Canada. The Libs probably have a slim lead but with the momentum behind them. Expect an early (probably an imminent) election. Also understand that just winning the popular vote won't do for the Cons as none of the smaller parties will work with them. They probably need a 5% win to get any sort of majority. I would note the Con vote is only marginally slipping. What has happened is the Orange One has managed to unite pretty much all patriotic Canadians behind Carney. Couldn't have gone better for the Libs.

    However, Starmer shouldn't be too happy about that. I think the most likely impact Trump could have on our election is that by crashing the world (or at least the 'Western') economy he makes life even harder for Starmer. However, stupid US posturing or threats to invade (not impossible) might let Strarmer wave the flag of patriotism. Especially if the traitor Farage or the idiot Kemi are his main rivals.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,374

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the DOGEbags

    @rmac.bsky.social‬

    We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

    One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

    The second flight of Falcon 1 failed because the staging wasn’t clean - interstage bumped into the nozzle for the second stage. Which caused the second stage to become unstable.

    I presume the claim refers to adding further slosh baffles in the second stage tank.

    How could they be so dumb - it's not rocket science.
    The Merlin engine had more residual thrust after shutdown than expected. This was because of greater than expected thrust from the cooling system of the engine, as it vented. There was also an asymmetric thrust issue from the gas generator exhaust, IIRC, which caused roll issues on all the Falcon 1 flights.

    Tom Mueller and one of his engineers then wrote a paper on the thrust generating dynamics of rocket engine throat cooling systems, IIRC.

    Quite a few second stages, of various rockets, don’t have slosh baffles. Apart from the weight, they have a history of breaking off and getting ingested into turbo pumps. Which get upset and then explode.
    They were using a Merlin engine?!
    Christ, that’s retro..
    At least they're not Vultures :lol:
    Vulcans?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,922
    edited March 20

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    Never mind a dog whistle, that's a harmonica.

    What a pity he isn't called Arthur.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,702
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    The "revolution" begins to eat itself...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119

    I used to canoe across from Hamble in a tiny collapsible canoe (ex military). The last time I did it, I had to back paddle to let the Queen Mary pass on its way to Southampton. Been a lurker for years, usually too busy to sustain a post, but, for once, got my mag out on time and might have time to respond to what my wife calls 'political porn'.

    Only on pb.com could a post about "a tiny collapsible canoe" cross over into "political porn".

    Post more often. Bring the wife too...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119
    MattW said:

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    Never mind a dog whistle, that's a harmonica.

    What a pity he isn't called Arthur.
    "Not now, Arthur...."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    edited March 20
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    The "revolution" begins to eat itself...
    The Communist Party of Canada / Canadian Communist Party Reform Party of United Kingdom / United Kingdom Reform Party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119

    Scott_xP said:

    One of the DOGEbags

    @rmac.bsky.social‬

    We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

    One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

    https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

    The second flight of Falcon 1 failed because the staging wasn’t clean - interstage bumped into the nozzle for the second stage. Which caused the second stage to become unstable.

    I presume the claim refers to adding further slosh baffles in the second stage tank.

    How could they be so dumb - it's not rocket science.
    The Merlin engine had more residual thrust after shutdown than expected. This was because of greater than expected thrust from the cooling system of the engine, as it vented. There was also an asymmetric thrust issue from the gas generator exhaust, IIRC, which caused roll issues on all the Falcon 1 flights.

    Tom Mueller and one of his engineers then wrote a paper on the thrust generating dynamics of rocket engine throat cooling systems, IIRC.

    Quite a few second stages, of various rockets, don’t have slosh baffles. Apart from the weight, they have a history of breaking off and getting ingested into turbo pumps. Which get upset and then explode.
    They were using a Merlin engine?!
    Christ, that’s retro..
    At least they're not Vultures :lol:
    Vulcans?
    That is illogical, Captain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847
    DOGE taking over libraries and museums services apparently.

    I guess suppressing any knowledge of the past will be helpful to the new regime.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    The "revolution" begins to eat itself...
    Why is menu at revolutions so shite?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,035

    DOGE taking over libraries and museums services apparently.

    I guess suppressing any knowledge of the past will be helpful to the new regime.

    Colin Powell, who he?

    https://x.com/cturnbull1968/status/1902716740213080167?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119

    Christopher Webb
    @cwebbonline
    Trump and Republicans have awakened a sleeping giant—and they will regret it.

    REPUBLICAN TOWN HALL CHANT: “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich…”

    https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1902542629541441564

    The irony of Musk fleeing over the border to Canada will be just too delicious...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,415

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119

    DOGE taking over libraries and museums services apparently.

    I guess suppressing any knowledge of the past will be helpful to the new regime.

    Colin Powell, who he?

    https://x.com/cturnbull1968/status/1902716740213080167?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    The black vet zombie apocolypse is going to be a thing to behold! (There's a movie in there...)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,922

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    Migrants from the Big Island? :)
    Send em back to where they came from...
    I was actually just thinking that: do people swim across the Solent between the Isle of Wight and the mainland? It must be possible, but I haven't heard of anyone doing it. Perhaps it's just not noteworthy.

    (Last week I was invited to be on a cross-channel relay swim. I refused, but was pleased to have been asked. Not bad as I only learnt to swim 'properly' last year. :)
    Sounds like you can practice for your cross-channel swim and earn money for charity:

    https://www.aspire.org.uk/event/solent-swims
    Thanks for that! I lived in the area for a few years, but had never heard of anyone doing it. An acquaintance kayaked (*) across. But no, I'm not going to swim it. Mrs J is used to me doing mad things, but I think attempting a Solent or Channel swim (even as a relay) would mean divorce.

    Hang on, perhaps I should... :)

    (I can never remember the difference between a kayak and a canoe, but people take it very seriously. They're just all small, fine boats you row to me ...)
    Canoes are Canadian, normally. You do not want to try on in the channel.

    So you should raise some money to help pay for their Southern and Western (and Eastern - 1 mile long) border walls.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,447
    edited March 20

    Christopher Webb
    @cwebbonline
    Trump and Republicans have awakened a sleeping giant—and they will regret it.

    REPUBLICAN TOWN HALL CHANT: “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich…”

    https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1902542629541441564

    You can't do that apparently because they'd just move. They're incredibly mobile, rich people. Try and tax them and boom, they're gone! To somewhere.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,922
    Leon said:

    Help I think I’m in the ugliest most boring place on earth

    The window is 1m to the right.

    That's the mirror :wink: .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847
    Wow.

    Last year, as many as 70 percent of Venezuelan American voters backed Trump.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/we-wont-know-its-a-different-country-trump-remember?open=false#§what-we-may-forget
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,286

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
    Err she is white.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,415

    CatMan said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

    Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

    For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana
    Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?
    Companies are people too!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,892

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
    (Ummm: she's not black. But she is a woman. Or so she claims.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,922

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
    Beaten to it, but ...


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,302

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,123

    DOGE taking over libraries and museums services apparently.

    I guess suppressing any knowledge of the past will be helpful to the new regime.

    Colin Powell, who he?

    https://x.com/cturnbull1968/status/1902716740213080167?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    If that tweet is correct, that’s absolutely despicable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,302
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can we have Seb Coe for London mayor please.

    I presumed he packed in politics when he retired from the House of Lords a couple of years ago.
    Well he's got nowhere to go now and MoL isn't exactly politics anyway. I think people would definitely vote for him as the hero of 2012 and because he won't be using London as a launching pad for some other political ambition. Plus he really does seem like a decent bloke. Would be a huge, huge upgrade on Khan who needs to be voted out next time. I also hope we introduce term limits for directly voted executive positions like mayors.
    It's a pretty good idea for Tory candidate.

    Going to be Cleverly otherwise. Who I see has recently been on GBNews rubbishing woke and Net Zero.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,892
    rcs1000 said:

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
    (Ummm: she's not black. But she is a woman. Or so she claims.)
    You know, do we actually know that she identifies as white? Perhaps we shouldn't be so quick to make assumptions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,302
    kinabalu said:

    Christopher Webb
    @cwebbonline
    Trump and Republicans have awakened a sleeping giant—and they will regret it.

    REPUBLICAN TOWN HALL CHANT: “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich…”

    https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1902542629541441564

    You can't do that apparently because they'd just move. They're incredibly mobile, rich people. Try and tax them and boom, they're gone! To somewhere.
    Dubai? Belize? Monaco? Jersey? Cayman Islands? Cyprus? Liechtenstein? You are acting like the tax haven is some implausible invention of the Daily Mail.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,316
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

    Never heard of her but somebody must have

    I am sure Trump will dismiss her as a DEI hire, being a black woman and all that.

    The fact that she is an Olympic gold medalist is by the by
    (Ummm: she's not black. But she is a woman. Or so she claims.)
    You know, do we actually know that she identifies as white? Perhaps we shouldn't be so quick to make assumptions.
    If she became American would she be an African-American ?

    Or possibly a non-African-American African American ?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,515

    Christopher Webb
    @cwebbonline
    Trump and Republicans have awakened a sleeping giant—and they will regret it.

    REPUBLICAN TOWN HALL CHANT: “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich…”

    https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1902542629541441564

    It's almost like populist movements have some sort of inner-conflict baked-in.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,439

    DOGE taking over libraries and museums services apparently.

    I guess suppressing any knowledge of the past will be helpful to the new regime.

    Part of the plan to destroy all copies of “1984”.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,274
    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,951

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
    You always say this but never explain why. Let me guess, some rubbish about the Supreme Court again?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,573
    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,353
    edited March 20
    Omnium said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking news - the Isle of Wight Reform Party, which claims over a thousand members, has split, with the Chair and Parliamentary candidate and a number of other members resigning, in concern at the treatment of Rupert Lowe and accusing Farage of being too soft on migrants….

    Migrants from the Big Island? :)
    Send em back to where they came from...
    I was actually just thinking that: do people swim across the Solent between the Isle of Wight and the mainland? It must be possible, but I haven't heard of anyone doing it. Perhaps it's just not noteworthy.

    (Last week I was invited to be on a cross-channel relay swim. I refused, but was pleased to have been asked. Not bad as I only learnt to swim 'properly' last year. :)
    Yes, they do. The former MP did it as a fundraiser some time back. The main hazard is of course all the shipping and boating.
    I did the Round the Island race quite a few years ago. My wife said aren't you afraid of drowning? I said there was far bigger chance of getting run over.
    I understand the safest route is to follow the Navy lanes.
    When there are between 1000 and 2000 yachts racing all going for the same spot, particularly around the Needles it is mayhem. You can shout to people on at least 5 yachts at the same time beside you, behind you and in front of you, so knowing the give way rules is essential, particularly as it is a race.

    However when the Americas Cup catamarans came through everyone just gives way regardless of the rules. Nobody wants to be cut in half. Their class went first, but we were patrolling the start line for our start and they come from miles back because of their speed and inability to turn so as to cross the line on time, so you watch them barrelling down on top of you and get the hell out of the way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,941

    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all

    I can assure you I never refer to myself as 'we.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119

    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all

    Phew, that's a relief - for a moment I thought Trump had started on awful puns....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,941

    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all

    Phew, that's a relief - for a moment I thought Trump had started on awful puns....
    Well, that wouldn't be channelling me, would it?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,515
    Cyclefree said:

    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?

    .. But what does Trump say? And what does Musk say about what Trump said? What does our senior political correspondent say about what Musk said about what Trump said? Now, over to our senior Westminster correspondent to find out what Farage said about what ...

    Sorry. It's been a long day.

    I'm sure it'll all be fine. Labour are the nice people, after all. The PFI fall-out will probably all go away too. Like the cladding stuff. Just goes away after a while.

    It's all fine.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,454
    Cyclefree said:

    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?

    But she's Jo Cox's sister. So one musn't criticise.

    Seriously, though, this forum had been pretty uniformly appalled about the progress of this bill, even those who are sympathetic to the cause. Even if we talk about Trump and Brexit all the time. It's up to MPs now.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,553
    Leon said:

    Help I think I’m in the ugliest most boring place on earth

    You went back to camden?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,007
    edited March 20
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,316
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    You win a general election by getting a majority of the seats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,265
    French Connection on BBC4 right now!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,553
    carnforth said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?

    But she's Jo Cox's sister. So one musn't criticise.

    Seriously, though, this forum had been pretty uniformly appalled about the progress of this bill, even those who are sympathetic to the cause. Even if we talk about Trump and Brexit all the time. It's up to MPs now.
    Besides you are assuming all the complaints against the bill will even register. MP's largely seem these days to assume they know best and don't listen to people who don't have plastic bags full of cash or a promise of a cushy directorship. They sold their souls for filthy lucre
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,859
    edited March 20
    Cyclefree said:

    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?

    I assume you mean the assisted dying bill and the MP being Kim Leadbeater? The best I can find is her amendment 214 of 18th March, in which she stipulated the following:

    Amendment made: 214, in clause 21, page 14, line 9, leave out “Schedule 6” and insert “regulations made by the Secretary of State”.—(Kim Leadbeater.) This amendment provides that the form of a final statement is to be set out in regulations from the Minister (rather than in Schedule 6).

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/Terminally_Ill_Adults_(End_of_Life)_Bill/25-0_2025-03-18a.1227.10#g1227.11

    As for this forum paying attention, I assure you I wrote an entire article on it: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/29/hell/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,726
    edited March 20
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    I know he is BPC approved and we are not allowed to question, but it is Goodwin and he is flogging a specific narrative. Handy that his poll always confirms his particular story.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,007
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,302

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
    You always say this but never explain why. Let me guess, some rubbish about the Supreme Court again?
    Have you compared the quango establishing under Thatcher and Major to what happened under Blair? These are matters of historical record - I don't see how there's a debate here.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,573
    edited March 20
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This evening a backbench Labour MP tabled an amendment to a PMB promoted by that MP which, if passed, rips up the founding legislation of the NHS and gives Henry VIII powers to a Minister to do anything which can be done by an Act of Parliament but without any scrutiny or voting at all. One of the provisions of the Bill allows private providers to make profits from providing the new service the Bill refers to but gives them complete immunity from any civil litigation, no matter how negligent those providers might be. Guaranteed profits and complete immunity from accountability. How marvellous!

    Perhaps those MPs worried about a lack of accountability might turn their attention to what is happening in this Bill? Perhaps this forum might too?

    I assume you mean the assisted dying bill and the MP being Kim Leadbeater? The best I can find is her amendment 214 of 18th March, in which she stipulated the following:

    Amendment made: 214, in clause 21, page 14, line 9, leave out “Schedule 6” and insert “regulations made by the Secretary of State”.—(Kim Leadbeater.) This amendment provides that the form of a final statement is to be set out in regulations from the Minister (rather than in Schedule 6).

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2024-25/Terminally_Ill_Adults_(End_of_Life)_Bill/25-0_2025-03-18a.1227.10#g1227.11

    As for this forum paying attention, I assure you I wrote an entire article on it: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/29/hell/
    I have written two. But there has been zero commentary on here as best I can tell on the amendments which have been accepted and rejected which have radically changed the Bill. So it is time for us to discuss it in detail again. Its effect, especially in light of the disability benefits cuts and its effect on those in the care and hospice sectors, really matters.

    And no the amendment is one just dropped a few hours ago.



    See sub-section (6).
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,875
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Perhaps he thought her husband was the prime minister?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,867
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Don't remember that episode of The Good Life
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,951

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
    You always say this but never explain why. Let me guess, some rubbish about the Supreme Court again?
    Have you compared the quango establishing under Thatcher and Major to what happened under Blair? These are matters of historical record - I don't see how there's a debate here.
    Quangos are only one small element of Gardenwalker’s post though
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    Very interesting video on Japanese rail privatisation.

    Why Japanese Railways Win
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u0_nrsfxXs
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,875

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    I know he is BPC approved and we are not allowed to question, but it is Goodwin and he is flogging a specific narrative. Handy that his poll always confirms his particular story.
    The Brexit party were leading in the polls 6 months, never mind 4 years, before the 2019 election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,075
    Evenin all


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,265

    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Don't remember that episode of The Good Life
    To The Manor Born :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    Leon said:

    Evenin all


    What a shit hole.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,104

    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Don't remember that episode of The Good Life
    Wasn't it that episode To The Manor Born where Audrey said she was mad as hell about those bloody Europeans coming over here and wasn't going to take it any more?

    The BBC wiped it on government orders which is why hardly anyone remembers it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,726
    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    I know he is BPC approved and we are not allowed to question, but it is Goodwin and he is flogging a specific narrative. Handy that his poll always confirms his particular story.
    The Brexit party were leading in the polls 6 months, never mind 4 years, before the 2019 election.
    Are you suggesting Labour replace Starmer with Brave Sir Boris?

    I'll whisper it but I don't have as much faith in the former academic known as Matt Goodwin as @Andy_JS does.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,238
    On Canada, it will be interesting to see what happens during the campaign. Will the rally around the flag effect continue for the Liberals, or could the lead fall back or disappear when other issues start coming to the fore during the campaign… it is not an exact parallel in that she wasn’t dealing with anyone threatening to annex the country, but I am mindful of May and the 2019 campaign.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,075

    Leon said:

    Evenin all


    What a shit hole.
    Yeah it’s pretty grim

    I’m trying to make the best of it, stiff upper lip etc
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,454
    edited March 20

    Very interesting video on Japanese rail privatisation.

    Why Japanese Railways Win
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u0_nrsfxXs

    Bookmarked, thanks!

    Not all sweetness and light though:

    "Drivers for JR West face financial penalties for lateness as well as being forced into harsh and humiliating retraining programs known as nikkin kyōiku (日勤教育, "dayshift education"), which include weeding and grass-cutting duties during the day.[4][5] The final report officially concluded that the retraining system was one probable cause of the crash.[6] This program consisted of severe verbal abuse, forcing the employees to repent by writing extensive reports. Many experts saw the process of nikkin kyōiku as punishment and psychological torture, not retraining.[2] The driver had also received a non-essential phone call from the general control station at the time that he was rounding the bend.[7] The speed limit on the segment of track where the derailment happened was 70 km/h (43 mph). The data recorder in the rear of the train (the rear cars were new and equipped with many extra devices) later showed that the train was moving at 116 km/h (72 mph) at that point.

    Investigators ran a series of simulations and calculated that the train would derail on that curve if going over 106 km/h (66 mph). It has been speculated that the driver was so stressed about the inevitability of going back to nikkin kyōiku due to his prior infractions that morning, that he did not notice that the train was going too fast. When the driver did notice, four seconds before the derailment, he used the service brake instead of the emergency brake, presumably to avoid another infraction as using the emergency brake had to be justified.[2]"

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amagasaki_derailment
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,238
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    Not sure about Goodwin generally but I do think he is right about that. It’ll take more blows to cause serious issues for Farage than the Lowe stuff.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,554

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
    You always say this but never explain why. Let me guess, some rubbish about the Supreme Court again?
    Have you compared the quango establishing under Thatcher and Major to what happened under Blair? These are matters of historical record - I don't see how there's a debate here.
    Quangos are only one small element of Gardenwalker’s post though
    This little mini-spat led me on an interesting voyage of discovery about quangos.

    I had thought of them as a child of the 90s, really getting going under Major and continuing to grow under Blair before being culled in the coalition years.

    Turns out the history is different. The number of quangos / non-departmental government bodies seems to have peaked in the 70s, and has been steadily falling under almost all governments since, including both Major and Blair. The proportion of public sector workers employed in these organisations on the other hand kept on rising until the mid-late 90s then tailed off.

    Various sources: articles in FT, Guardian, institute fit govt papers, civil service articles etc.

    So they’re really not a recent or growing thing, quite the reverse. Not a post-1979 neoliberal phenomenon, nor a Blair one.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Don't remember that episode of The Good Life
    To The Manor Born :lol:
    To the Manor Bourne.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,302
    edited March 20

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    I think Britain has been taken over by
    1. Non-accountable Quangos
    2. Non-accountable Lawyers
    3. Non-accountable sub-contractors

    Civic values and responsibilities have been privatised, overly-legalized, or assigned to faceless statutory bodies which are themselves stuffed with the politically naive.

    This is all a manifestation of the neo-liberal era which started in 1979 and is now collapsing around our ears.

    The same phenomenon is obvious in other countries, but I actually think Britain is the single worst example.

    It has bugger all to do with 1979. It was Blair, pure and simple.
    You always say this but never explain why. Let me guess, some rubbish about the Supreme Court again?
    Have you compared the quango establishing under Thatcher and Major to what happened under Blair? These are matters of historical record - I don't see how there's a debate here.
    Quangos are only one small element of Gardenwalker’s post though
    But the explosion in judicial review also goes back to the HRA and other pieces of (primarily EU) legislation from the New Labour era.

    I really think the only reason we have this 'neoliberalism has failed' schtick is because astute political observers can quite clearly see that the Blair legacy is a completely disastrous clusterfuck and they are scrabbling around for a left-leaning critique that somehow pins it on the hated Tories. A look at the economy in 1996 does not bear this out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,007

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    Pretty amazing to see a Labour MP writing something like this.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,554
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Evenin all


    What a shit hole.
    Yeah it’s pretty grim

    I’m trying to make the best of it, stiff upper lip etc
    I spent the afternoon today with a colleague from the US I assumed was American but turned out to be Uruguayan (she has a Germanic surname). Her and her husband massive rugby fans, big Tannat drinkers of course, and we had an interesting discussion about why Uruguay is so much richer and more developed than most of Latin America including its neighbour Argentina.

    Her theory that there’s just been significantly less of the sort of kleptocratic bad governance and ideological rollercoaster its neighbours experienced throughout the 20th century and that has given it the stability to progress gently without major setbacks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    Not sure about Goodwin generally but I do think he is right about that. It’ll take more blows to cause serious issues for Farage than the Lowe stuff.
    90% of voters will not have heard or seen a single word about Lowe.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Indeed. Nothing shows how social media is destroying our societies more.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,554

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    Not sure about Goodwin generally but I do think he is right about that. It’ll take more blows to cause serious issues for Farage than the Lowe stuff.
    90% of voters will not have heard or seen a single word about Lowe.

    I don’t think many of us expected the Lowe stuff to cut through to voters, but most did think there would be some Trump/Putin collateral damage. So far not much sign of that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119
    Just realised that over 50 odd years, I've morphed into the baddy in The French Connection....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,867

    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Indeed. Nothing shows how social media is destroying our societies more.
    If Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory that Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK is contributing to the destruction of our society then it probably needs to be destroyed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,274
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Nothing will epitomise our age more perfectly than Russell Brand promoting the conspiracy theory Penelope Keith was responsible for the assassination of JFK."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1902824266220925054

    Has the definition of a conspiracy theory expanded to include jokes?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847
    I see the BBC has lost another talented journo/politics presenter. Coburn off into the sunset.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,553
    edited March 20
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Evenin all


    What a shit hole.
    Yeah it’s pretty grim

    I’m trying to make the best of it, stiff upper lip etc
    I spent the afternoon today with a colleague from the US I assumed was American but turned out to be Uruguayan (she has a Germanic surname). Her and her husband massive rugby fans, big Tannat drinkers of course, and we had an interesting discussion about why Uruguay is so much richer and more developed than most of Latin America including its neighbour Argentina.

    Her theory that there’s just been significantly less of the sort of kleptocratic bad governance and ideological rollercoaster its neighbours experienced throughout the 20th century and that has given it the stability to progress gently without major setbacks.
    They did have their own dirty war in the Seventies and early Eighties, albeit not quite so murderous as in Argentina.

    https://globalvoices.org/2021/10/11/dark-tales-from-uruguay-how-mothers-and-grandmothers-search-for-victims-of-the-cold-war/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,223

    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjnkYYj0ADc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h

    Trump: “In a few moments, I will sign an executive order to begin eliminating the federal Department of Education once and for all.”

    (The president does not have the authority to do this, since the department was established by Congress.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,847

    Trump is channelling @ydoethur

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1902820533474865315

    🚨 @POTUS: Today, we take a very historic action that is 45 years in the making. In a few moments, I will sign an Executive Order to begin eliminating the Department of Education once and for all

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjnkYYj0ADc
    Illegally.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,075
    SandraMc said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely OT, has anyone else watched the latest season of the White Lotus?

    Jason Isaacs is incredible. And Sam Rockwell has one of the greatest monologues of all time.

    This season has been slow but it is now getting juicy.

    During Sam Rockwell's monologue, I was reminded of another frequenter of Bangkok brothels. If only I could remember his name.
    Are you referring to my stalker, the idiot @SeanT once of this manor?

    I see the famous novelist Lionel Shriver is having a go at him

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/dont-write-off-literary-fiction-yet/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,465
    Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel:

    “My wife's looking at me like I'm a monster, and I was proud of myself. …I just psychologically beat the daylights out of an 8-year-old in the back seat.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1902801421298237842
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,618
    carnforth said:

    Very interesting video on Japanese rail privatisation.

    Why Japanese Railways Win
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u0_nrsfxXs

    Bookmarked, thanks!

    Not all sweetness and light though:

    "Drivers for JR West face financial penalties for lateness as well as being forced into harsh and humiliating retraining programs known as nikkin kyōiku (日勤教育, "dayshift education"), which include weeding and grass-cutting duties during the day.[4][5] The final report officially concluded that the retraining system was one probable cause of the crash.[6] This program consisted of severe verbal abuse, forcing the employees to repent by writing extensive reports. Many experts saw the process of nikkin kyōiku as punishment and psychological torture, not retraining.[2] The driver had also received a non-essential phone call from the general control station at the time that he was rounding the bend.[7] The speed limit on the segment of track where the derailment happened was 70 km/h (43 mph). The data recorder in the rear of the train (the rear cars were new and equipped with many extra devices) later showed that the train was moving at 116 km/h (72 mph) at that point.

    Investigators ran a series of simulations and calculated that the train would derail on that curve if going over 106 km/h (66 mph). It has been speculated that the driver was so stressed about the inevitability of going back to nikkin kyōiku due to his prior infractions that morning, that he did not notice that the train was going too fast. When the driver did notice, four seconds before the derailment, he used the service brake instead of the emergency brake, presumably to avoid another infraction as using the emergency brake had to be justified.[2]"

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amagasaki_derailment
    Beatings will continue until morale improves.

    Culture and its effect on safety is fascinating.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,119


    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h

    Trump: “In a few moments, I will sign an executive order to begin eliminating the federal Department of Education once and for all.”

    (The president does not have the authority to do this, since the department was established by Congress.)

    Shaping up to be quite a contest for the dumbest thing he tries to do as President.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    edited March 20
    "they claimed I did not have the correct visa for entry"

    I am no apologist for Trump, but when the dusk settles literally every one of these stories is the same. Its either they are actually a criminal or terrorist sympathiser or its run of the mill not adhering to the long standing rules. You can't go and work in the US without the correct visa. Its been that way forever.

    The big one on the BBC website at the moment, post-grad detained, has huge links to Hamas, there are "receipts". Its more shocking they got a visa in the first place.

    The other story is a girl who got herself in a mess over working in the US and telling Canadian border officials she planned to work illegally in Canada.

    I think more concerning is the deportation of the alleged gang members to a 3rd country. That should have a lot more oversight to ensure due process and also that mistakes are not being made, as they aren't even been deported to their home country.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,936
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    A week ago, more than a few people who live their lives on Twitter suggested it was “over” for Reform

    Today, Reform is averaging a very healthy 25% of the NATIONAL vote and has led both Labour and the Tories in 2 of the last 5 polls

    There is, in other words, every chance that Reform will win the next general election

    As I said, Twitter is not real life in the sense that most people who congregate on Twitter are not representative of the real world

    Some people on here —including, unfortunately, young people who appeared promising but have now shot themselves in the foot—have disappeared down rabbit holes"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1902716755362955675

    Not sure about Goodwin generally but I do think he is right about that. It’ll take more blows to cause serious issues for Farage than the Lowe stuff.
    90% of voters will not have heard or seen a single word about Lowe.

    I don’t think many of us expected the Lowe stuff to cut through to voters, but most did think there would be some Trump/Putin collateral damage. So far not much sign of that.
    The sagacious HYUFD and I were doubtful that Reform would take much of a hit. The sort of person who tells a pollster he'd vote Reform is unlikely to alter that behaviour simply because Trump is an arse. Most Reform supporters will either share Nigel's Trumophilia or be unaware of it, and for now Nigel can still work his magic on the rest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,075
    Bad Shit in Lake Mungo
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,035
    Leon said:

    SandraMc said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely OT, has anyone else watched the latest season of the White Lotus?

    Jason Isaacs is incredible. And Sam Rockwell has one of the greatest monologues of all time.

    This season has been slow but it is now getting juicy.

    During Sam Rockwell's monologue, I was reminded of another frequenter of Bangkok brothels. If only I could remember his name.
    Are you referring to my stalker, the idiot @SeanT once of this manor?

    I see the famous novelist Lionel Shriver is having a go at him

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/dont-write-off-literary-fiction-yet/
    I’m backing rat-trap mouthed, loyalist sympathising Predator in that one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,075
    The mosquitoes here are the size of fucking condors

    I did wonder for a moment if they are actually are condors. I’m stating at a winery and the Tannat is “plentiful” but no, they’re mosquitoes. Bastards
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,223
    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-beefs-up-travel-warnings-over-us-border-enforcement-2025-03-20/

    Britain has in recent weeks revised its advice for citizens travelling to the United States to include a warning that anyone found breaking its entry rules could face arrest or detention.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,223
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-updates-us-travel-advice-after-citizens-detained-2025-03-19/

    Germany updated its travel advisory for the United States to emphasise that a visa or entry waiver does not guarantee entry for its citizens after several Germans were detained at the border recently, a foreign ministry spokesperson said.
    The ministry updated its travel advice website for the U.S. on Tuesday to clarify that neither approval through the U.S. ESTA system nor a U.S. visa entitles entry in every case.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    edited March 20

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-updates-us-travel-advice-after-citizens-detained-2025-03-19/

    Germany updated its travel advisory for the United States to emphasise that a visa or entry waiver does not guarantee entry for its citizens after several Germans were detained at the border recently, a foreign ministry spokesperson said.
    The ministry updated its travel advice website for the U.S. on Tuesday to clarify that neither approval through the U.S. ESTA system nor a U.S. visa entitles entry in every case.

    This has literally always been the case. It tells you when you apply for the ESTA or when you are awarded a visa they emphasis that this still isn't a guarantee, it is the opportunity to do so at the discretion of the immigration officials.

    The last numbers of deportation showed they were actually down on Biden during the same month last year.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,280
    Andy_JS said:

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2025/03/20/jonathan-hinder-the-government-does-not-run-this-country-politicians-need-to-take-back-control/

    “The government does not run this country — politicians need to take back control”, @Jonathan_Hinder writes for @Politics_co_uk

    The Labour MP goes on to question the role of the OBR, the ECHR, the Sentencing Council, even the Bank of England

    Pretty amazing to see a Labour MP writing something like this.
    Spot on

    This is Part II of the Brexit revolution.

    Pre-Brexit, all the blame for things not being done went on Brussels "we'd love to but EU rules won't allow it"
    Now we are finding out that a lot of the problem is the bureaucracy, quangos and legal system in the UK
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