Should we start adding a Trump effect to the polls and betting strategies? – politicalbetting.com

System

Should we start adding a Trump effect to the polls and betting strategies? – politicalbetting.com

Last November I wrote a piece pointing out the Conservatives were the 1/10 favourites to win the 2025 Canadian election. Whilst I was expecting some swingback I wasn’t expecting this level of movement but thanks to the Ayrshire hotelier has changed things.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

Another unhappy poll for labour

When were they last at 22% ?

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1902707421438484857?t=dKkBmq-fpd7kKclmSvxAZQ&s=19

January, with this pollster.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

another_richard said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I don't want to puncture this immigration theory of everything, but those differential unemployment rates are probably related to age more than anything else, as London has a younger population and young people, lacking marketable experience, are much more likely to be unemployed (unemployment rate of 18-24yos is 13%, compared to 3% for over 50yos).

But a younger population should also have a higher employment rate and London's is below average.

You're right that people without marketable experience, and skills, will have higher unemployment but how many of London's current unemployed will ever gain those ?

As opposed to becoming unemployable for life as they subsist on welfare while being replaced by the next wave of immigrants.

Have you ever even been to London? It is full of incredibly ambitious young people, often immigrants or children of immigrants. My daughter attended a state sixth form college that sends more kids to Oxbridge than Eton. Most of the kids there are from ethnic minorities (including my daughter, who is now at Oxford doing a maths degree). The idea that London is full of lazy brown people sitting around spending other people's money is a laughable fiction - the energy and ambition of London keeps the rest of the country afloat.

London and the rest of the country would both be happier with an independent London city state!

Indeed. We give them money, and they hate us.

that's a bit weird.

I don't really think about London but if you mention the flow of money the first thing that comes to mind is treasury infrastructure investment.

And don't make me come up with a list, you won't like it.

Right or wrong, both sides feel hard done by, and think they could do better. Better off with a divorce.

I don't mind paying the money - Londoners are better off on average so it's right that we subsidise places like the NE of England or Wales. I do mind simultaneously paying the money and being told that we are some kind of alien presence in the country.

Relatedly, this is a perceptive thread:

https://x.com/capellofft/status/1902672291588170076

Highly diverse societies are low trust societies and low trust societies can't sustain a social contract of the sort that underpins the welfare state. Trying to defy this = political suicide

I think there are plenty of homogenous places that are low trust (Albania), and some heterogeneous places (Switzerland) that are high trust. So, is it trust that is the factor?

Or is it that we are wired to prefer to support people that are genetically similar to us?

Or following on from OLB's comment, we don't like supporting people who don't like us.

Oh, I think it's much simpler than that.

We want our genes to survive. (Our genes have hardwired that belief in us.)

And the more someone looks like us, the more likely they are to carry our genes.

Nigelb

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

Not sure an orange man would go down well with half the natives.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

Not sure an orange man would go down well with half the natives.

We could make him wear a balaclava. That would keep everyone happy.

Nigelb

,

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

He'd probably want to depopulate it for redevelopment, as with Gaza.

Cookie

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

Another unhappy poll for labour

When were they last at 22% ?

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1902707421438484857?t=dKkBmq-fpd7kKclmSvxAZQ&s=19

January, with this pollster.

Interestingly - to me, anyway - Labour's nadir of polling is corresponding with the nadir of my antipathy to them. After six months dicking about, they are starting to take some hard decisions. A shame they're not getting the credit.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

,

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

He'd probably want to depopulate it for redevelopment, as with Gaza.

On that basis it would be the world's largest golf course.

rcs1000

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Are you expecting him to propose us as the 51st state, after being rebuffed by Canada ?

He might tell us/Farage to give the Malvinas to Argentina.

I cant see why were not offering to sell him Norn Iron. The Riviera del Belfast would prosper.

I've suggested Northern Ireland becoming the 51st State for some time.

The Protestants would get on well with the Christian evangelicals. While the Catholics would embrace the US's love of St Patrick's day.

What's not to like?

algarkirk

Should be reckon on Trump effect? Yes. Though the hard question is how and to what extent. So, in Canada the Trump effect so far looks dramatic. In UK, you might expect polling to show a Reform collapse, as being the only party closely identified with Trump. Their polling has stabilised, but not sunk.

The coming by-election should be a test of this. I think Labour will win, and by sufficiently little that Trump probably will have made the difference in lowering the Reform vote and getting anti Trumpists to make sure Reform lose. But I am entirely open to being wrong.

In a sane world Trump and his coup co-conspirator gangsters would be polling close to Zero in USA by now. Draw your own conclusions.

Alanbrooke

Cookie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good afternoon

Another unhappy poll for labour

When were they last at 22% ?

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1902707421438484857?t=dKkBmq-fpd7kKclmSvxAZQ&s=19

January, with this pollster.

Interestingly - to me, anyway - Labour's nadir of polling is corresponding with the nadir of my antipathy to them. After six months dicking about, they are starting to take some hard decisions. A shame they're not getting the credit.

Not convinced.

They're benefitting from Trump being the headlines. All their screw ups arent getting the scrutiny they did, And theyre still screwing up.

Nigelb

This is a bit like Morton's Fork.

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/18/nx-s1-5331986/deportation-flight-tren-de-aragua-justice-department-boasberg
..."The lack of a criminal record does not indicate they pose a limited threat," according to Cerna's declaration. "The lack of specific information about each individual actually highlights the risk they pose. It demonstrates that they are terrorists with regard to whom we lack a complete profile."..

Big_G_NorthWales

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

BartholomewRoberts

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

Selebian

FPT - let's leave Letby there, maybe, but JJ raises an interesting question at the end, so I'll just quote that:

JosiasJessop said:

Also: if the statistical analysis done proved so accurate, I would expect every trust would run such analysis weekly or monthly, just in case. It would pick up not just murders, but other causes of problems, e.g. contaminated equipment. Do they? And if not, why not?

Yes, they do/have done (also done externally) to an extent. See Dr Foster reports and SHMI etc. The problem is that it's very hard to measure casemix accurately. You send the most complex patients to the specialist centres and the best teams, you let the newbies loose on the theoretically simpler cases; it's easy - if casemix adjustment is imperfect* - to flag up anomalies that have perfectly reasonable clinical explanations.

To some extent, this went out of fashion a little with Mid Staffs, where a scientist of my acquaintance had an improved model of mortality risk (compared to Dr Foster, which is and was pants - plus they had an allied consultantion service, I think, to improve SHMIs through 'better' coding of patients' complications) that they used to justify internally that their mortality rates were not excessive. But they were still a steaming pile of shit, nonetheless.

The correct way to use it is to compare over time for hospitals, I think, and departments therein, where casemix is generally similar or changes only gradually. In the case of anomalies, do a review to see whether there is a cause that can be fixed. However, if you do it at any kind of fine grained level then you'll get a lot of statistical anomalies so it can be hard to see the real problems.

*spoiler: it is. Also an issue for analyses of 'weekend effects' in hospitals. People who manage to get admitted at the weekend (e.g. outwith normal GP hours) may be sicker to start with

Big_G_NorthWales

On topic

You would have thought Trump would have collapsed Reform but in today's poll they have a 5% lead

Indeed a couple of weeks ago a poster predicted Reform was finished

The real fear is Trump may not have a negative effect, but then goodness knows why not

He and his bullies are shocking for democracy and the world order

tlg86

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Swimmer, I think.

MattW

@Roger

Thanks for your reply wrt GB News on the last thread.

The next question from me is how to get Ofcom to address that aspect.

They seem quite timid so I won't be holding my breath .

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Zimbabwean swimmer.

Nigelb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Five time Olympian.
Zimbabwean minister of sport.

If I'd been paying attention, I might have had a bet on it. The vote was unlikely to go to a Brit, and the other front runner was the son of one of the more ethically questionable former presidents.

https://www.espn.com/oly/columns/garber_greg/1225329.html
..Canadian Richard Pound, one of three serious candidates to succeed Samaranch -- the vote by 122 IOC members comes Monday -- defended Samaranch's tenure earlier this week.
"He inherited an organization that was impecunious, disorganized and not universal, and made it universal, well-funded and respected by the world's political organizations," Pound told Jere Longman of the New York Times. "He handled situations like China-Taiwan, South Africa, the Soviet boycott of L.A. and the breakup of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia. In seeking universality, he had to make choices. He got some people in that were not as acquainted with the ethical values that you wish.
"Was the price worth it? It got messy, but it was worth it. He got rid of those people and kept the universality."..

Might adopt that euphemism for future use.

BartholomewRoberts

No_Offence_Alan said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

another_richard said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I don't want to puncture this immigration theory of everything, but those differential unemployment rates are probably related to age more than anything else, as London has a younger population and young people, lacking marketable experience, are much more likely to be unemployed (unemployment rate of 18-24yos is 13%, compared to 3% for over 50yos).

But a younger population should also have a higher employment rate and London's is below average.

You're right that people without marketable experience, and skills, will have higher unemployment but how many of London's current unemployed will ever gain those ?

As opposed to becoming unemployable for life as they subsist on welfare while being replaced by the next wave of immigrants.

Have you ever even been to London? It is full of incredibly ambitious young people, often immigrants or children of immigrants. My daughter attended a state sixth form college that sends more kids to Oxbridge than Eton. Most of the kids there are from ethnic minorities (including my daughter, who is now at Oxford doing a maths degree). The idea that London is full of lazy brown people sitting around spending other people's money is a laughable fiction - the energy and ambition of London keeps the rest of the country afloat.

London and the rest of the country would both be happier with an independent London city state!

Indeed. We give them money, and they hate us.

that's a bit weird.

I don't really think about London but if you mention the flow of money the first thing that comes to mind is treasury infrastructure investment.

And don't make me come up with a list, you won't like it.

Right or wrong, both sides feel hard done by, and think they could do better. Better off with a divorce.

I don't mind paying the money - Londoners are better off on average so it's right that we subsidise places like the NE of England or Wales. I do mind simultaneously paying the money and being told that we are some kind of alien presence in the country.

Where do you think most of the young people who flock to London were educated? Perhaps the city should pay for provincial schools, since it’s the capital that often ends up benefitting from it.

I'm one of them - went to school in NE England and Scotland. In effect we are paying for those schools of course, that's where our £5k a year goes.

Until the government balances the books, we are all being subsidised by our grand-children.

Given how much of our deficit now is to pay interest for debts from the past, we are fast approaching if not at the point where our grandchildren are subsidising our parents.

We have largely now run out of road to borrow for today, we are now borrowing ever more to pay for the past.

rcs1000

Completely OT, has anyone else watched the latest season of the White Lotus?

Jason Isaacs is incredible. And Sam Rockwell has one of the greatest monologues of all time.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

Completely OT, has anyone else watched the latest season of the White Lotus?

Jason Isaacs is incredible. And Sam Rockwell has one of the greatest monologues of all time.

I am going to binge watch it in a couple of weeks time when all the episodes have aired.

Theuniondivvie

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Swimmer, I think.

Quivery lip in Coe Towers.

Big_G_NorthWales

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

JosiasJessop

Selebian said:

FPT - let's leave Letby there, maybe, but JJ raises an interesting question at the end, so I'll just quote that:

JosiasJessop said:

Also: if the statistical analysis done proved so accurate, I would expect every trust would run such analysis weekly or monthly, just in case. It would pick up not just murders, but other causes of problems, e.g. contaminated equipment. Do they? And if not, why not?

Yes, they do/have done (also done externally) to an extent. See Dr Foster reports and SHMI etc. The problem is that it's very hard to measure casemix accurately. You send the most complex patients to the specialist centres and the best teams, you let the newbies loose on the theoretically simpler cases; it's easy - if casemix adjustment is imperfect* - to flag up anomalies that have perfectly reasonable clinical explanations.

To some extent, this went out of fashion a little with Mid Staffs, where a scientist of my acquaintance had an improved model of mortality risk (compared to Dr Foster, which is and was pants - plus they had an allied consultantion service, I think, to improve SHMIs through 'better' coding of patients' complications) that they used to justify internally that their mortality rates were not excessive. But they were still a steaming pile of shit, nonetheless.

The correct way to use it is to compare over time for hospitals, I think, and departments therein, where casemix is generally similar or changes only gradually. In the case of anomalies, do a review to see whether there is a cause that can be fixed. However, if you do it at any kind of fine grained level then you'll get a lot of statistical anomalies so it can be hard to see the real problems.

*spoiler: it is. Also an issue for analyses of 'weekend effects' in hospitals. People who manage to get admitted at the weekend (e.g. outwith normal GP hours) may be sicker to start with

Thanks for that.

It leads me to a couple more interesting, but possibly stupid, questions: are the statistical analysis tools used in evidence against Letby the same as the standard ones, and if not, would the standard ones have shown up the problem and connection with her?

I'm reminded of the Therac 25 case (*), where one operator was on duty for two of the cases, and was initially seen by some as being 'responsible' for the radiation overdoses. She was, indirectly: but the actual causal issue was software bugs. She was just a fast typist...

(*) A case that should be known by all software engineers. See http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf

williamglenn

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

Taz

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Zimbabwean swimmer. Govt minister in Zim. Brother was an average international cricketer who had one really good innings.

Luckyguy1983

viewcode said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

...

Leon said:

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

Wow. Hodges pulls no punches as he tears into Starmer's administration over welfare:

Remember what people were told they were voting for last July: ‘Change’. And what were they presented with yesterday? The spectacle of a Labour minister – a Labour minister – aggressively confronting anyone who had the gall to question whether demanding that the most vulnerable in society again make the greatest sacrifices was really morally or economically sustainable.

A storm is coming. The British people have had enough. They are not going to tolerate another parade of ministers in tight grey suits, sporting red – rather than blue – ties, telling them those in most need have to do with less.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14514899/DAN-HODGES-Labour-minister-Newsnight-Keir-Starmer.html

As I keep pointing out, Blairism DOES NOT WORK in the 2020s. We tried corporatism in 1945-1979: it had its day and then it died. We tried neoliberalism in 1980-2019: it had its day and then it died. This warmed-over rotting-fish neoliberalism is not working and requires Labour to act out of character: if it isn't there to defend the old and the sick, what the hell is it there for? When is the "taxing the rich" bit due to kick in? They aren't going to do that because Blairism could afford not to do so, but these days you have to.

Honestly Morgan McSweeney, if you read PB, please do the bloody maths, yes?

You can’t tax the rich any more because the rich are ever more mobile, as Covid and WFH and the interweb have shown

Britain is already suffering a profound exodus of rich people, more than any other nation on earth. At the same time sunnier places without terror attacks, migration nightmares and machete-wielding Rolex robbers are attracting these rich people (often the young) with digital nomad visas and very low taxes

The Treasury is well aware of this, hence Labour backtracking on non doms and desperately trying to change its rhetoric on wealth

If you want our tax base to entirely disappear, go ahead an impose a wealth tax, and see how much rain mobile wealthy people are willing to tolerate in return for, uhm, ah, the brilliance of the NHS?

I don't know whether Viewcode thinks he is being insightful with this facile critique of 'neoliberalism' but it is utter tripe.

If you have a better idea, I'm not stopping you writing it down.

The point is, there is no need for 'a better idea'. Adam Smith had the answer in 1776. People haven't changed since then, so why would economics change? Smith espoused 'Peace, easy taxes, and tolerable administration of justice' - at present we have a large financial commitment to a war between two other countries, some of the highest taxes outside of a World War, and justice is taking a nap. Perhaps we should sort those out and see where we are. Why do you have to make everything so complicated when it isn't?

carnforth

MattW said:

@Roger

Thanks for your reply wrt GB News on the last thread.

The next question from me is how to get Ofcom to address that aspect.

They seem quite timid so I won't be holding my breath .

So timid they have to be told to drop cases:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6yje0zr0do

noneoftheabove

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Hopefully if there are any objectors she can deal with them herself so they can be sent to Coventry.

FrancisUrquhart

How a Terrorist Became Syria’s President | Firas Modad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SR7O2Te-o0

Very interesting explanation.

Luckyguy1983

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

At present, we don't really know whether Canada has the Canadian Trump effect. Polling suggests it will but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Nigelb

Naturally.

Russia names former FSB officer behind Ukraine invasion to lead peace talks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/20/russia-ukraine-aerial-attacks-ceasefire-confusion

noneoftheabove

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

Could be a few of them, maybe so of the broligarchs could set up some camps to deal with that problem?

Theuniondivvie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if thousands of Yoons & Albanians cried out in rage and were suddenly silenced.

Gallowgate

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

Go on. Tell us why that's a good thing.

Mexicanpete

...

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

Are we sure they didn't just spontaneously combust? EVs used to have that reputation amongst the Fox- MAGA crowd.

stodge

Afternoon all

The header forgets the nuance of all this - there is the “Trump Effect” now, and what it will be like in 12, 24 or 36 months which will almost certainly not be the same.

There was a time when you could see the “Boris” effect and how it transformed the Conservative polling position between May and November 2019 and then on through COVID - at one point universally positive for the Tories, then universally negative.

Trump elicits strong emotions in many it seems, both positive and negative and we will simply need to see how the next two years plays out. There’s a risk Trump’s policies vis a vis America may end up causing economic turmoil elsewhere but IF his attempts to radically reshape Government appear to be successful they may well become the de facto policy of many parties.

algarkirk

JosiasJessop said:

Selebian said:

FPT - let's leave Letby there, maybe, but JJ raises an interesting question at the end, so I'll just quote that:

JosiasJessop said:

Also: if the statistical analysis done proved so accurate, I would expect every trust would run such analysis weekly or monthly, just in case. It would pick up not just murders, but other causes of problems, e.g. contaminated equipment. Do they? And if not, why not?

Yes, they do/have done (also done externally) to an extent. See Dr Foster reports and SHMI etc. The problem is that it's very hard to measure casemix accurately. You send the most complex patients to the specialist centres and the best teams, you let the newbies loose on the theoretically simpler cases; it's easy - if casemix adjustment is imperfect* - to flag up anomalies that have perfectly reasonable clinical explanations.

To some extent, this went out of fashion a little with Mid Staffs, where a scientist of my acquaintance had an improved model of mortality risk (compared to Dr Foster, which is and was pants - plus they had an allied consultantion service, I think, to improve SHMIs through 'better' coding of patients' complications) that they used to justify internally that their mortality rates were not excessive. But they were still a steaming pile of shit, nonetheless.

The correct way to use it is to compare over time for hospitals, I think, and departments therein, where casemix is generally similar or changes only gradually. In the case of anomalies, do a review to see whether there is a cause that can be fixed. However, if you do it at any kind of fine grained level then you'll get a lot of statistical anomalies so it can be hard to see the real problems.

*spoiler: it is. Also an issue for analyses of 'weekend effects' in hospitals. People who manage to get admitted at the weekend (e.g. outwith normal GP hours) may be sicker to start with

Thanks for that.

It leads me to a couple more interesting, but possibly stupid, questions: are the statistical analysis tools used in evidence against Letby the same as the standard ones, and if not, would the standard ones have shown up the problem and connection with her?

I'm reminded of the Therac 25 case (*), where one operator was on duty for two of the cases, and was initially seen by some as being 'responsible' for the radiation overdoses. She was, indirectly: but the actual causal issue was software bugs. She was just a fast typist...

(*) A case that should be known by all software engineers. See http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf

Does anyone here actually know whether expert evidence of statistical analysis was adduced in evidence at the trial at all? I have heard the subject discussed but can't remember seeing what this evidence was. Did it exist?

This is different from 'factual' evidence, eg that baby X died at time A, and LL was on duty at the time.

Anyone can give factual evidence. Only 'experts' can offer opinions as to what conclusions may be drawn from facts. This happens with eg DNA samples.

Selebian

JosiasJessop said:

Selebian said:

FPT - let's leave Letby there, maybe, but JJ raises an interesting question at the end, so I'll just quote that:

JosiasJessop said:

Also: if the statistical analysis done proved so accurate, I would expect every trust would run such analysis weekly or monthly, just in case. It would pick up not just murders, but other causes of problems, e.g. contaminated equipment. Do they? And if not, why not?

Yes, they do/have done (also done externally) to an extent. See Dr Foster reports and SHMI etc. The problem is that it's very hard to measure casemix accurately. You send the most complex patients to the specialist centres and the best teams, you let the newbies loose on the theoretically simpler cases; it's easy - if casemix adjustment is imperfect* - to flag up anomalies that have perfectly reasonable clinical explanations.

To some extent, this went out of fashion a little with Mid Staffs, where a scientist of my acquaintance had an improved model of mortality risk (compared to Dr Foster, which is and was pants - plus they had an allied consultantion service, I think, to improve SHMIs through 'better' coding of patients' complications) that they used to justify internally that their mortality rates were not excessive. But they were still a steaming pile of shit, nonetheless.

The correct way to use it is to compare over time for hospitals, I think, and departments therein, where casemix is generally similar or changes only gradually. In the case of anomalies, do a review to see whether there is a cause that can be fixed. However, if you do it at any kind of fine grained level then you'll get a lot of statistical anomalies so it can be hard to see the real problems.

*spoiler: it is. Also an issue for analyses of 'weekend effects' in hospitals. People who manage to get admitted at the weekend (e.g. outwith normal GP hours) may be sicker to start with

Thanks for that.

It leads me to a couple more interesting, but possibly stupid, questions: are the statistical analysis tools used in evidence against Letby the same as the standard ones, and if not, would the standard ones have shown up the problem and connection with her?

I'm reminded of the Therac 25 case (*), where one operator was on duty for two of the cases, and was initially seen by some as being 'responsible' for the radiation overdoses. She was, indirectly: but the actual causal issue was software bugs. She was just a fast typist...

(*) A case that should be known by all software engineers. See http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf

I'm not overly familiar with the Letby case (like most people on here making comments!) but, as far as I know, there was no actual statistical evidence presented - no 'the probability of this pattern occurring by chance is X'. Just some visual patterns presented. I may be wrong. Routine statistical monitoring would flag events seen to be statistically significant, at some threshold. A lot of places are probably just eyeballing graphs, which is also fine.

Assuming I'm right on that, it's a good thing. The probability of this happening by chance arguments are not evidence. Any small probability event is likely to happen somewhere at some time and, it doesn't consider competing probabilities (nurse is a killer is quite rare) and it assumes underlying randomness when there may be perfectly good reasons why a pattern would exist, other than the nurse being a killer.

MattW

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Zimbabwean swimmer.

Massively famous. Competed in 5 Olympics; multiply medalled incl gold in 2 of them. By the fifth one she was still coming 6th in a final. She has also been Minister for Sport in Zimbabwe.

The best comparison I could come with for a British athlete would be someone like a Steve Redgrave or a Dame Laura Kenny. But Zimbabwe don't have anything like as many medal winners as we do now, so higher profile in country.

carnforth

UK tweaks US travel advice to remind of consequences of not following rules:

https://www.newsweek.com/britain-issues-travel-warning-us-deportations-2047878

FrancisUrquhart

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning about your intentions, especially for the UK passport holders as you can be in Canada for 6 months.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

MattW

carnforth said:

MattW said:

@Roger

Thanks for your reply wrt GB News on the last thread.

The next question from me is how to get Ofcom to address that aspect.

They seem quite timid so I won't be holding my breath .

So timid they have to be told to drop cases:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6yje0zr0do

I wasn't too impressed with some of those.

They just have a bundle of new powers, now applied to live streaming, and may be a bit timid about using them !

carnforth

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

The problem here is that she was at the Land Border. She told the Canadians what she planned to do, and they said it needed a Work Visa, so she cross back into America, where they also denied entry.

At that point, they had to detain her so they could get her to an airport without her wandering off. How that took 19 days, though, I don't know.

If this were at a Airport, she might just have been put on a flight to the UK on the same day.

MattW

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning about your intentions, especially for the UK passport holders as you can be in Canada for 6 months.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

Have the Canadians tightened it up as part of their performative fluffing of Trump?

AIUI public humiliation is part of the system in the USA - hence the famous "perp-walk" when going from detention to Court or similar.

Perp-walk (Google summary):
The primary goal of a perp walk is to satisfy public interest, demonstrate the effectiveness of law enforcement, or potentially shame the person.

The public escort is designed to allow the media to photograph or videotape the individual, often before they have been formally charged or convicted.

Plus the police always go in more cautiously and more demandingly ("GET FACE DOWN ON THE FLOOR") because anyone, at any time, anywhere, could have one of the 400 million guns in the country to hand.

My (unusual, astringent, prejudiced ?) view is that that the USA has never counted as part of the civilised world, because of this type of deliberate behaviour and a society that perhaps requires it, and it certainly doesn't now.

FrancisUrquhart

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

The problem here is that she was at the Land Border. She told the Canadians what she planned to do, and they said it needed a Work Visa, so she cross back into America, where they also denied entry.

At that point, they had to detain her so they could get her to an airport without her wandering off. How that took 19 days, though, I don't know.

If this were at a Airport, she might just have been put on a flight to the UK on the same day.

I have been over that land border loads. The Canadian side rarely asked many questions especially with a UK passport, even when I have been back and forth over it several times in the space of a week. She might have been terribly unlucky and got a very power hungry Canadian border official. This whole doing chores for accommodation, a) I am not sure why she was even really going into that with them and b) she must have really made it sound like proper work. Its a bit of an odd one.

My conversations with Canadian border officials have gone pretty much...reason for visit...tourism...how long are you staying...about a month...where you staying...I am travelling about, some hotels, some camping...oh great, have a nice time...

The only time I have ever had any issue going across that border was I had some fruit in the car and the Canadian border official gave me a lecture on dangers of transporting such products.

CatMan

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

noneoftheabove

CatMan said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?

Nigelb

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

The problem here is that she was at the Land Border. She told the Canadians what she planned to do, and they said it needed a Work Visa, so she cross back into America, where they also denied entry.

At that point, they had to detain her so they could get her to an airport without her wandering off. How that took 19 days, though, I don't know.

If this were at a Airport, she might just have been put on a flight to the UK on the same day.

Every detainee means profit for the private companies who hold them, in pretty awful (and therefore very cheap) conditions.
So there's no rush to actually process them ?

Another account here;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/19/canadian-detained-us-immigration-jasmine-mooney

SandraMc

rcs1000 said:

Completely OT, has anyone else watched the latest season of the White Lotus?

Jason Isaacs is incredible. And Sam Rockwell has one of the greatest monologues of all time.

This season has been slow but it is now getting juicy.

During Sam Rockwell's monologue, I was reminded of another frequenter of Bangkok brothels. If only I could remember his name.

CatMan

noneoftheabove said:

CatMan said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?

Oh I'm sure they could be so shameless that they will say a Tesla counts as a person because it was created by the living God that is Elon Musk

Pulpstar

noneoftheabove said:

CatMan said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?

Teslas have modes where you can keep the Air-Con on whilst the car is securely locked. Say someone had that running and a baby was sleeping whilst Mum popped into the One-Stop for a minute and it got molotoved..

Fishing

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

noneoftheabove

CatMan said:

noneoftheabove said:

CatMan said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?

Oh I'm sure they could be so shameless that they will say a Tesla counts as a person because it was created by the living God that is Elon Musk

The technology is so powerful given it can self drive that it ranks pari passu with the intellect of the average murican?

carnforth

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

The problem here is that she was at the Land Border. She told the Canadians what she planned to do, and they said it needed a Work Visa, so she cross back into America, where they also denied entry.

At that point, they had to detain her so they could get her to an airport without her wandering off. How that took 19 days, though, I don't know.

If this were at a Airport, she might just have been put on a flight to the UK on the same day.

I have been over that land border loads. The Canadian side rarely asked many questions especially with a UK passport, even when I have been back and forth over it several times in the space of a week. She might have been terribly unlucky and got a very power hungry Canadian border official. This whole doing chores for accommodation, a) I am not sure why she was even really going into that with them and b) she must have really made it sound like proper work. Its a bit of an odd one.

My conversations with Canadian border officials have gone pretty much...reason for visit...tourism...how long are you staying...about a month...where you staying...I am travelling about, some hotels, some camping...oh great, have a nice time...

The only time I have ever had any issue going across that border was I had some fruit in the car and the Canadian border official gave me a lecture on dangers of transporting such products.

When I told the Americans I was planning to stay a month they asked me how I could get that much time off.

Is it considered bad to have a return flight for a week's time and then modify it and actually stay a month I wonder?

Scott_xP

@apnews.com‬

New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call a snap election on Sunday, a Canadian government official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Scott_xP

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

noneoftheabove

Pulpstar said:

noneoftheabove said:

CatMan said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

For what it's worth, the Supreme Court (yeah I know...) has ruled that you can only get the death penalty for murder

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana

Murder of a human only or could that be expanded to murder of a tesla?

Teslas have modes where you can keep the Air-Con on whilst the car is securely locked. Say someone had that running and a baby was sleeping whilst Mum popped into the One-Stop for a minute and it got molotoved..

Hardly rocket science - on the border between murder and manslaughter (US equivalents if there) depending on awareness of people inside.

rcs1000

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

The problem here is that she was at the Land Border. She told the Canadians what she planned to do, and they said it needed a Work Visa, so she cross back into America, where they also denied entry.

At that point, they had to detain her so they could get her to an airport without her wandering off. How that took 19 days, though, I don't know.

If this were at a Airport, she might just have been put on a flight to the UK on the same day.

I have been over that land border loads. The Canadian side rarely asked many questions especially with a UK passport, even when I have been back and forth over it several times in the space of a week. She might have been terribly unlucky and got a very power hungry Canadian border official. This whole doing chores for accommodation, a) I am not sure why she was even really going into that with them and b) she must have really made it sound like proper work. Its a bit of an odd one.

My conversations with Canadian border officials have gone pretty much...reason for visit...tourism...how long are you staying...about a month...where you staying...I am travelling about, some hotels, some camping...oh great, have a nice time...

The only time I have ever had any issue going across that border was I had some fruit in the car and the Canadian border official gave me a lecture on dangers of transporting such products.

When I told the Americans I was planning to stay a month they asked me how I could get that much time off.

Is it considered bad to have a return flight for a week's time and then modify it and actually stay a month I wonder?

That's not going to cause you any problems at all: peoples' travel plans change all the time.

HOWEVER, whatever you do, don't overstay the ESTA maximum.

carnforth

Scott_xP said:

@apnews.com‬

New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will call a snap election on Sunday, a Canadian government official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Striking while the Trump is hot.

Gallowgate

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

In defence of that scenario, it would be useful to know how much cost you can cut out of a rocket before it fails.

carnforth

Gallowgate said:

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

In defence of that scenario, it would be useful to know how much cost you can cut out of a rocket before it fails.

Might also be weight rather than cost? Or is that less important than I think?

Pulpstar

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

Sounds like good engineering process to me..

Scott_xP

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

Sounds like good engineering process to me..

It's really not...

https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/starship-was-doomed-from-the-beginning

rcs1000

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

carnforth

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

To implement that, at least in the case of my business, they'd have to order my payment processor to add the services tarriff to every payment. It's possible, but it would be an administrative nightmare for the payment processors to categorise each payment.

No_Offence_Alan

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kirsty Coventry new IOC president

Never heard of her but somebody must have

Zimbabwean swimmer.

Massively famous. Competed in 5 Olympics; multiply medalled incl gold in 2 of them. By the fifth one she was still coming 6th in a final. She has also been Minister for Sport in Zimbabwe.

The best comparison I could come with for a British athlete would be someone like a Steve Redgrave or a Dame Laura Kenny. But Zimbabwe don't have anything like as many medal winners as we do now, so higher profile in country.

She has won all but one of Zimbabwe's Olympic medals.
The exception was 1980 when, due to a lot of teams boycotting, they managed to cobble together a women's (field) hockey team and win the gold medal.

TimS

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

Tariffs are by definition on goods (plus certain services directly linked to goods, like product royalties) - they’re customs duty. Trump’s faux objection to VAT is that it’s a tariff on goods imports, because of the need to assess import VAT.

There are other proposals that would affect services but these are by necessity in the realms of corporate tax, not customs. And may be very nasty indeed.

TimS

carnforth said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

To implement that, at least in the case of my business, they'd have to order my payment processor to add the services tarriff to every payment. It's possible, but it would be an administrative nightmare for the payment processors to categorise each payment.

That’s what withholding tax is for. Very different kettle of fish.

MattW

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

Sounds like good engineering process to me..

(I'm assuming sarcasm!)

He took the baffles out of the fuel tank, and it sloshed around - unbalancing the rocket.

It's a really good comparison for the entire DOGE operation - amateur hour: no checks, no balances, no domain knowledge, a massive panicky rush to destroy everything, and the inevitable consequences.

carnforth

TimS said:

carnforth said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

To implement that, at least in the case of my business, they'd have to order my payment processor to add the services tarriff to every payment. It's possible, but it would be an administrative nightmare for the payment processors to categorise each payment.

That’s what withholding tax is for. Very different kettle of fish.

Ah, so they would do it universally and we would have to prove we weren't subject to tarrifs?

SandyRentool

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1902743242744951056

Fox News is now talking about people getting the death penalty for attacking Teslas

Tesla Girls, Tesla Girls
Testing out theories
Electric chairs and dynamos
Dressed to kill, they're killing me
But Heaven knows their recipe

carnforth

TimS said:

carnforth said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

To implement that, at least in the case of my business, they'd have to order my payment processor to add the services tarriff to every payment. It's possible, but it would be an administrative nightmare for the payment processors to categorise each payment.

That’s what withholding tax is for. Very different kettle of fish.

But isn't witholding about reducing what the payment processor sends me? Surely a tariff must involve adding to the purchase price my customer has to pay?

bondegezou

I've added a number of replies re Letby on the last thread, should anyone care.

Eabhal

Luckyguy1983 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

At present, we don't really know whether Canada has the Canadian Trump effect. Polling suggests it will but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Errr, the Liberals have enjoyed a 20pt+ swing. It's a little more than "suggests".

You should be piling on the Conservatives if you think the actual swing is much less than that.

OnlyLivingBoy

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is another very odd immigration story,

Tourist in US chained 'like Hannibal Lecter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly67j35y99o

It was actually the Canadians who denied her entry to Canada. The Canadians are generally much more easy going on checks and questioning about your intentions, especially for the UK passport holders as you can be in Canada for 6 months.

Mrs U has worked in Seattle and when she did I visited regularly. I have been back and forth over the border between Seattle and Vancouver loads of times and never had any issue on either side. For Canada to reject you suggests something really wasn't in order.

Have the Canadians tightened it up as part of their performative fluffing of Trump?

AIUI public humiliation is part of the system in the USA - hence the famous "perp-walk" when going from detention to Court or similar.

Perp-walk (Google summary):
The primary goal of a perp walk is to satisfy public interest, demonstrate the effectiveness of law enforcement, or potentially shame the person.

The public escort is designed to allow the media to photograph or videotape the individual, often before they have been formally charged or convicted.

Plus the police always go in more cautiously and more demandingly ("GET FACE DOWN ON THE FLOOR") because anyone, at any time, anywhere, could have one of the 400 million guns in the country to hand.

My (unusual, astringent, prejudiced ?) view is that that the USA has never counted as part of the civilised world, because of this type of deliberate behaviour and a society that perhaps requires it, and it certainly doesn't now.

The US is the only developed country that had widespread slavery in the modern era, and all the associated brutality that accompanies that. That history has cast a long shadow, especially in the area of law enforcement. I agree with you, it frequently doesn't feel like other so-called civilised countries.

rottenborough

On topic:


‪Ian Dunt‬ ‪@iandunt.bsky.social‬
·
1h
Extraordinary to watch this party's newfound sense of purpose and momentum. Trump is destroying the US, but he is a very significant electoral asset to liberals around the world.

https://bsky.app/profile/iandunt.bsky.social/post/3lkt2jv7kfc2l

bondegezou

.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

6 months ago, I wouldn't have expected a US President to be this antagonistic to Canada. On that basis, I don't think we can presume Trump wouldn't become randomly antagonistic to the UK.

rcs1000

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

Tariffs are by definition on goods (plus certain services directly linked to goods, like product royalties) - they’re customs duty. Trump’s faux objection to VAT is that it’s a tariff on goods imports, because of the need to assess import VAT.

There are other proposals that would affect services but these are by necessity in the realms of corporate tax, not customs. And may be very nasty indeed.

We have intercompany agreements, and our UK entity supplies the US entity with software development services.

My assumption is that as the US entity has "imported" something, then it is responsible for paying the tariffs.

Nigel_Foremain

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if thousands of Yoons & Albanians cried out in rage and were suddenly silenced.

As "Yoon" is meant to be a pejorative term when used in your lexicon, is it not really just a kind of divisive racist/hate proxy word?

As for Ms Sturgeon, is it not most odd that a spouse might not ask "where did we get the money to buy that £110k camper van darling?" I guess in some households this sudden appearance of expensive vehicles without question is commonplace?

Nigel_Foremain

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

VAT isn't levied on services sold outside the UK

Taz

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if thousands of Yoons & Albanians cried out in rage and were suddenly silenced.

As "Yoon" is meant to be a pejorative term when used in your lexicon, is it not really just a kind of divisive racist/hate proxy word?

It’s certainly not intended as a compliment.

kinabalu

bondegezou said:

I've added a number of replies re Letby on the last thread, should anyone care.

I do and I've made a contribution.

FrancisUrquhart

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if thousands of Yoons & Albanians cried out in rage and were suddenly silenced.

As "Yoon" is meant to be a pejorative term when used in your lexicon, is it not really just a kind of divisive racist/hate proxy word?

As for Ms Sturgeon, is it not most odd that a spouse might not ask "where did we get the money to buy that £110k camper van darling?" I guess in some households this sudden appearance of expensive vehicles without question is commonplace?

In our household, things like the milk mysteriously running out gets the Spanish Inquisition level response from Mrs U.....

Eabhal

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have we done this ?

Sturgeon cleared

https://news.sky.com/story/former-first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-cleared-in-police-investigation-into-snps-finances-13332544

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if thousands of Yoons & Albanians cried out in rage and were suddenly silenced.

As "Yoon" is meant to be a pejorative term when used in your lexicon, is it not really just a kind of divisive racist/hate proxy word?

As for Ms Sturgeon, is it not most odd that a spouse might not ask "where did we get the money to buy that £110k camper van darling?" I guess in some households this sudden appearance of expensive vehicles without question is commonplace?

Scotland June - August you can barely see the mountains for motorhomes. It's like living inside a white goods shop.

(It's just slang for unionist. There is a group of ultra-online yoons in the same way there are cybernats. They can be just as vicious, if not in such massive numbers).

carnforth

Nigel_Foremain said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

VAT isn't levied on services sold outside the UK

My EU customers (I'm not VAT-registered) pay VAT to their local governments under the "reverse charge" mechanism, as I understand it. Well, they insist on my adding pablum about reverse charge on their invoices, anyway. I think that means they pay.

Malmesbury

Scott_xP said:

One of the DOGEbags

@rmac.bsky.social‬

We spent a while reporting on Davis's past and what motivates him on cost-cutting.

One noteworthy anecdote: Davis was so obsessed with cost-cutting that he removed key parts from SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, directly causing its failure on its second ever test flight.

https://bsky.app/profile/rmac.bsky.social/post/3lksxorfqb22y

The second flight of Falcon 1 failed because the staging wasn’t clean - interstage bumped into the nozzle for the second stage. Which caused the second stage to become unstable.

I presume the claim refers to adding further slosh baffles in the second stage tank.

MaxPB

Can we have Seb Coe for London mayor please.

FrancisUrquhart

Bridget Phillipson is to begin in-depth scrutiny of smartphone bans in schools in England as pressure grows from MPs to act on the effect of social media on teenagers. Phillipson is understood to have become frustrated that there is no monitoring of whether the guidance is being followed or proving useful to schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/20/uk-government-to-look-again-at-a-smartphone-ban-in-schools

Monitoring schools to prove they follow guidance over smart phone bans....if we don't trust schools to do this (or enact sensible version of it), does Bridget trust them to follow anything?

Surely there is a better use of time and resources than central government setting up spying on, sorry monitoring, of school mobile phone bans?

rcs1000

Nigel_Foremain said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

VAT isn't levied on services sold outside the UK

Nor is it levied on goods sold outside the UK.

MattW

FPT:

viewcode said:

Today's Zeihan considers whether Christian Ultranationalism is a better explanation than Russian infiltration for the current Trumpstallnacht. Zeihan shakes the 8-ball and goes "hmmm"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRyXhfu_ZUE (7 mins)

This has reminded me why I sometimes find Peter Zeihan intensely annoying: he's a generalist talking to specialisms without having done enough background to have got a sufficient grip usefully to inform his audience. And he does not identify (or perhaps grasp?) his own limits.

In this case he uses a strange term, and does not really define it. And he then waffles rather randomly around the topic generally for 5 minutes quite confusedly, even portraying JD Vance as a proof of the flexibility of the notion which he attaches to Protestantism, rather than recognising that Roman Catholics have had their own Christian Nationalist movement for a couple of centuries at least.

Back in the 1930s there was a priest called Father Coughlin who had a weekly audience of 25% of the population for his Radio Programme "Golden Hour", which lauded Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.

He does not identify where the current one has come from - which is well enough attested to understand quite quickly online. He will leave his audience with a vague red flag in their head, but an inability clearly to identify what it is about.

A comparison from my more mundance beat: it's like a road engineer designing mobility infrastructure in the USA (or in most places here). They design cycle tracks as if it were going to be SUVs driving up them, with eg huge concrete kerbs that make it effectively 40cm narrower, detector loops that need a motor bike to trigger, barriers right up to the side (so handlebars can't overhang the kerbs), and all the rest.

He says it is a series about "Russian Reach"; I will have to check out the rest.

Nigel_Foremain

rcs1000 said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Perhaps a hostage to fortune but I very much doubt there'll be anything like the Canadian Trump effect as Trump isn't going to be as antagonistic to the UK and there won't be the same rally to the flag effect as Canada is having.

Any effect will be marginal.

I agree, the Trump effect will most likely be small.

Canadian exports to the US: 19% of GDP
UK exports to the US: 2.1% of GDP

(Also Canadian exports are about 80% goods, which can attract tariffs whereas ours are about 70% services which generally don't).

Albeit the proposal for the EU - because of VAT - is to include services in the scope of tariffs, so I wouldn't be too sure we won't be negatively impacted.

VAT isn't levied on services sold outside the UK

Nor is it levied on goods sold outside the UK.

indeed, should have mentioned that too

Fairliered

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bridget Phillipson is to begin in-depth scrutiny of smartphone bans in schools in England as pressure grows from MPs to act on the effect of social media on teenagers. Phillipson is understood to have become frustrated that there is no monitoring of whether the guidance is being followed or proving useful to schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/20/uk-government-to-look-again-at-a-smartphone-ban-in-schools

Monitoring schools to prove they follow guidance over smart phone bans....if we don't trust schools to do this (or enact sensible version of it), do we trust them to follow anything?

Surely there is a better use of time and resources than setting up monitoring of school mobile phone bans? If schools are getting good results, do we care?

Nothing in school, not even the National Curriculum, damages children more than widespread use of mobile phones.

Nigel_Foremain

Fairliered said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bridget Phillipson is to begin in-depth scrutiny of smartphone bans in schools in England as pressure grows from MPs to act on the effect of social media on teenagers. Phillipson is understood to have become frustrated that there is no monitoring of whether the guidance is being followed or proving useful to schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/20/uk-government-to-look-again-at-a-smartphone-ban-in-schools

Monitoring schools to prove they follow guidance over smart phone bans....if we don't trust schools to do this (or enact sensible version of it), do we trust them to follow anything?

Surely there is a better use of time and resources than setting up monitoring of school mobile phone bans? If schools are getting good results, do we care?

Nothing in school, not even the National Curriculum, damages children more than widespread use of mobile phones.

How about bad teachers?

FrancisUrquhart

Fairliered said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bridget Phillipson is to begin in-depth scrutiny of smartphone bans in schools in England as pressure grows from MPs to act on the effect of social media on teenagers. Phillipson is understood to have become frustrated that there is no monitoring of whether the guidance is being followed or proving useful to schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/20/uk-government-to-look-again-at-a-smartphone-ban-in-schools

Monitoring schools to prove they follow guidance over smart phone bans....if we don't trust schools to do this (or enact sensible version of it), do we trust them to follow anything?

Surely there is a better use of time and resources than setting up monitoring of school mobile phone bans? If schools are getting good results, do we care?

Nothing in school, not even the National Curriculum, damages children more than widespread use of mobile phones.

I am pretty sure schools are aware of this and have backing of government via the guidance to have bring in policies to restrict them. I question more that Bridget seems to think it requires central government monitoring of schools to see what they are up to. If the government don't trust school to incorporate a mobile phone ban into their behaviour policy, do we trust them to do anything? It seems more likely they would be failing under all sorts of other guidance on behaviour if they can't even successful ban mobile phones.

Its only two minutes ago they were overhauling Ofsted ratings because a head teacher was under so much pressure they killed themselves because the tick box inspectors said her school was failing, because safe guarding did meet requirements on pretty spurious grounds.

BartholomewRoberts

Nigel_Foremain said:

Fairliered said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bridget Phillipson is to begin in-depth scrutiny of smartphone bans in schools in England as pressure grows from MPs to act on the effect of social media on teenagers. Phillipson is understood to have become frustrated that there is no monitoring of whether the guidance is being followed or proving useful to schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/20/uk-government-to-look-again-at-a-smartphone-ban-in-schools

Monitoring schools to prove they follow guidance over smart phone bans....if we don't trust schools to do this (or enact sensible version of it), do we trust them to follow anything?

Surely there is a better use of time and resources than setting up monitoring of school mobile phone bans? If schools are getting good results, do we care?

Nothing in school, not even the National Curriculum, damages children more than widespread use of mobile phones.

How about bad teachers?

Or bad parents?