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Every Cheltenham Festival Race Winner 2025 - And the Long Shots You Must Consider

124

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    Thanks Moon Rabbit for the header, interesting to see how they end up.

    Hard to see beyond many of the favourites today.

    Elsewhere, I like Broadway Boy in 2.40, but he is drifting quite a bit this morning. Quantock Hills in 4.40 can give a good run and worth EW bet at 18s. Tripoli Flyer another EW in 1.20 at 25/1. Keep coming back to State Man at 11/1, tempted.

    Tripoli Flyer has a note from its mother I’m afraid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,581

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    Well people need to start doing a better job of rebutting.
    If one reads PB there is plenty of rebuttal.
    I've not seen many rebuttals of the judicial decisions allowing foreign criminals to stay.
    Er, you were clearly demanding "a better job of rebutting" the "selective" and "duplicitous reporting" and "misrepresenting" of such decisions.
    Are you suggesting bondegezou has done that? I would expect detail not just saying someone is wrong.
    There has ben plenty of discussion of the selective reporting of judge's decisions by the right wing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,151
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    There would nothing more dangerous than to allow Putin to use the threat of using nuclear weapons to gain territory.

    Mind you, I would not be surprised to see the current US administration support the threatened use of nuclear weapons by Russia against European nations.
    It is just reality, even Biden did not give Zelensky enough arms to force the Russians out of Ukraine entirely as he knew there was a very high risk Putin would then use a tactical nuclear weapon
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    Nigelb said:

    That's why Johnson is whining about the Democrats not supporting his partisan bill.

    Despite @DOGE’s findings of loony left-wing USAID programs, the Republican spending bill continues to fund the very foreign aid @elonmusk proposes to cut! The bill continues spending at the inflated pandemic levels and will add $2T to the debt this year. Count me as a hell no!..
    https://x.com/RandPaul/status/1899113680848961888

    Rand is correct. I’m a No as well on this CR.
    https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1899121969385079182

    Think I'm with Rand on this one. Why is the Hill so addicted to spending such vast sums of money ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    I didn't know that but if this helps


    Labour 24 [-2]
    Reform 23 [-2]
    Conservative 22 [+1]
    Lib Dem 15 [+1]

    Actually at Abergavenny on way to Cardiff for lunch before home just after tea

    Great service on TFW and lovely landscapes
    So you are on 197109 working 1V94 0818 Holyhead to Cardiff Central

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:W20593/2025-03-11/detailed#allox_id=1

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,952
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    If I were Ukraine I would reluctantly accept the current situation with security guarantees from Europe plus others, but I wouldn't trust Russia or the US an inch. Sanctions need to remain on Russia even if the US reneges. Putin needs to remain persona non grata, even if Trump offers him a state visit.

    I would then build up my military strength - trained soldiers, munitions, aircraft etc over the next couple of years with massive help from Europe. If Russia steps out of line in any way, I would use that as an excuse to attempt to retake the lost territories. It would be a ceasefire, not a settlement.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,748

    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    I didn't know that but if this helps


    Labour 24 [-2]
    Reform 23 [-2]
    Conservative 22 [+1]
    Lib Dem 15 [+1]

    Actually at Abergavenny on way to Cardiff for lunch before home just after tea

    Great service on TFW and lovely landscapes
    So you are on 197109 working 1V94 0818 Holyhead to Cardiff Central

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:W20593/2025-03-11/detailed#allox_id=1

    Yes and very pleasant journey and on time
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 845

    Thanks Moon Rabbit for the header, interesting to see how they end up.

    Hard to see beyond many of the favourites today.

    Elsewhere, I like Broadway Boy in 2.40, but he is drifting quite a bit this morning. Quantock Hills in 4.40 can give a good run and worth EW bet at 18s. Tripoli Flyer another EW in 1.20 at 25/1. Keep coming back to State Man at 11/1, tempted.

    Tripoli Flyer has a note from its mother I’m afraid.
    :) ta for the tips as Mr Patrick Power has made extracting my balance extremely difficult have put a small proportion of my PP Sipp.
    Still outperforming my actual pension in % terms particularly in current circs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 451

    Thanks Moon Rabbit for the header, interesting to see how they end up.

    Hard to see beyond many of the favourites today.

    Elsewhere, I like Broadway Boy in 2.40, but he is drifting quite a bit this morning. Quantock Hills in 4.40 can give a good run and worth EW bet at 18s. Tripoli Flyer another EW in 1.20 at 25/1. Keep coming back to State Man at 11/1, tempted.

    Tripoli Flyer has a note from its mother I’m afraid.
    Yes thanks, messed up accumulators, should've stuck with Workahead.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,419
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited March 11

    Thanks Moon Rabbit for the header, interesting to see how they end up.

    Hard to see beyond many of the favourites today.

    Elsewhere, I like Broadway Boy in 2.40, but he is drifting quite a bit this morning. Quantock Hills in 4.40 can give a good run and worth EW bet at 18s. Tripoli Flyer another EW in 1.20 at 25/1. Keep coming back to State Man at 11/1, tempted.

    Tripoli Flyer has a note from its mother I’m afraid.
    Broadway Boy is a very good tip for Ultima. Was pencilled in as a contender by me at one point, and had won here several times in 2023, but not shone at Cheltenham in last 2 visits, otherwise probably would start favourite, so a very nice price for a win. Great tip, Sharky.

    A more extreme example of horses for courses, Victtorino has looked good elsewhere, but can’t get it together at this course.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,952
    edited March 11
    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    A £1 accumulator, if they all won, would win you approximately £270 million. £2 to the power 28
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 845
    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    Easiest way is to put them on a betslip and check the projected returns.
    Accumulator was just short of 60k to 1.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 845
    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    Easiest way is to put them on a betslip and check the projected returns.
    Accumulator was just short of 60k to 1.
    For today's picks to be clear.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    I confess I'm no expert on"right wing" politics but how would any new party set up by Lowe and Habib, whether funded by Musk or not, be different to Reform?

    I've seen "mass deportations" mentioned - this is one of Trump's slogans but I've no idea how many people have been deported, to where and how much it has cost the US?

    The same questions apply here - who are we seeking to deport? I note the Conservatives have finally decided any foreign national committing a crime will be deported and any country who refuses to take back their citizens will have its own citizens barred from obtaining visas for the UK.

    Quite apart from the international legality of these proposals (about which I'm unclear) are we then going to see tit-for-tat repatriations of British nationals in foreign jails? What about dual passport holders? It's a superficially popular policy though not free as presumably if a criminal from Mali or Uruguay needs tobe deported, we'll have to pay to send them back to their country of "origin".

    Foreign criminals represent about 12% of the current prison population so that would make some space but presumably for the 2,000 or so British citizens detained in foreign jails.

    It might be difficult if any British citizen committing a crime abroad is also liable to immediate repatriation so a superficially popular policy needs plenty of thought. What if a group of lads gets into a brawl in Benidorm and they all get arrested and charged with criminal damage. Presumably, if convicted, Spain could throw them all out and they'd arrive back in Luton.

    I've heard the term "re-migration" mentioned - there was once a plan to pay migrants to go back to their country of origin. Could we, for example, pay Syrian refugees to return home? Would they want to go? How much would it cost?

    It would take most of the Tommy Robinson fans from Reform to the new Lowe and Habib party, possibly funded by Musk
    That might somewhat mirror previous Farage-Party disintegrations.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675

    https://x.com/cphilpofficial/status/1899394764069273653

    48% of London’s social housing is occupied by people who are foreign - and have likely paid little or no tax [you generally have to be on low or no income to be in social housing]

    This is morally wrong. We can’t be the social housing provider for the world

    Given that a disproportionately large number of low-paying jobs in London are done by foreigners, isn't it inevitable that a disproportionately large number of them will be in social housing?
    It's a fake statistic.

    It's "foreign-born" not "foreign", so includes British citizens.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,751
    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    https://xcancel.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1899434239281574282?t=90CGNo4aGetN4U0tVG2gTA&s=19
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    edited March 11
    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    A £1 accumulator, if they all won, would win you approximately £270 million. £2 to the power 28
    It's the "if they win" probabilities I need help with :smile: .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    F1: interesting, Piastri now shorter than Hamilton at 8.6 to 8.8 on Betfair.

    Anyway, I must be off. Good day, everyone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,151
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    I think you would end up not losing the full £28. Probably. ☺️

    But have you thought of accumulators?

    A win lucky15, I understand is the bet bookies pay out more % times than any other type of bet - 15% pay out versus 10% on every other type of bet at best. 4 horses = 15 bets at once. £1stake is a £15 outlay. If you choose 2 favourites, and 2 at a good price, but heavily tipped, like Broadway Boy Sharky mentioned, and only any 2 of the lucky15 won, that would be a pair of doubles. Add a third winner, it’s the doubles and a triple, I think Coral still pay out the singles too. So you don’t need all 4 to come in, any combination of winner it starts to accumulate very exponentially. So just pick 4 horses from each days card, the 4 you feel best about, in a Lucky15, would be my advice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    You're assuming Russia wants a "deal".
    Bloomberg just reported that Putin has issued a set of maximalist demands: Ukraine must formally commit to neutrality, abandon any ambition to join NATO, demilitarise and recognise Russian claims to annexed territory. Lavrov has ruled out European peacekeepers.
    In effect, it must become a Russian satellite like Belarus.

    Rubio will endorse those demands, so long as the US can strip-mine whatever is left of Ukraine.
    "demilitarise"?

    So the Russians can invade further in three years time and get to the Polish border?

    Zelensky should tell them to do one.
    Don’t be silly. Agee to everything. Implementing agreements is for fools…

    Russia - “What about the 250k troops, tanks and the nuclear weapons you have stationed in Ukraine! This breaks the agreement.”

    EU - “The don’t exist. You are lying. Plus they are tourists looking at the famous spire of the cathedral.”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    On @MoonRabbit 's header, how much do I get back if I put £1 on each suggestion?

    Just asking ...

    A £1 accumulator, if they all won, would win you approximately £270 million. £2 to the power 28
    Payout limits are lower than that at most bookies though
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481

    Johnson is a foreign agent working for Trump and Russia.

    I see a flaw in your thesis. " Johnson is ... working..."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481

    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    I didn't know that but if this helps


    Labour 24 [-2]
    Reform 23 [-2]
    Conservative 22 [+1]
    Lib Dem 15 [+1]

    Actually at Abergavenny on way to Cardiff for lunch before home just after tea

    Great service on TFW and lovely landscapes
    This must get better every time it's repeated, which is why this is at least the third time it has been posted.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,307
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    Well people need to start doing a better job of rebutting.
    If one reads PB there is plenty of rebuttal.
    I've not seen many rebuttals of the judicial decisions allowing foreign criminals to stay.
    Er, you were clearly demanding "a better job of rebutting" the "selective" and "duplicitous reporting" and "misrepresenting" of such decisions.
    Are you suggesting bondegezou has done that? I would expect detail not just saying someone is wrong.
    There has ben plenty of discussion of the selective reporting of judge's decisions by the right wing.
    Its not just the right thought is it? Take the reporting around the scuffle at Manchester. Initially some of the media portrayed it as a simple police brutality case against oppressed minorities. When the full picture came out things were a bit different.

    Lots of people, for lots of reasons, distort reporting of events. Using facts is the best way to counter it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    I confess I'm no expert on"right wing" politics but how would any new party set up by Lowe and Habib, whether funded by Musk or not, be different to Reform?

    I've seen "mass deportations" mentioned - this is one of Trump's slogans but I've no idea how many people have been deported, to where and how much it has cost the US?

    The same questions apply here - who are we seeking to deport? I note the Conservatives have finally decided any foreign national committing a crime will be deported and any country who refuses to take back their citizens will have its own citizens barred from obtaining visas for the UK.

    Quite apart from the international legality of these proposals (about which I'm unclear) are we then going to see tit-for-tat repatriations of British nationals in foreign jails? What about dual passport holders? It's a superficially popular policy though not free as presumably if a criminal from Mali or Uruguay needs tobe deported, we'll have to pay to send them back to their country of "origin".

    Foreign criminals represent about 12% of the current prison population so that would make some space but presumably for the 2,000 or so British citizens detained in foreign jails.

    It might be difficult if any British citizen committing a crime abroad is also liable to immediate repatriation so a superficially popular policy needs plenty of thought. What if a group of lads gets into a brawl in Benidorm and they all get arrested and charged with criminal damage. Presumably, if convicted, Spain could throw them all out and they'd arrive back in Luton.

    I've heard the term "re-migration" mentioned - there was once a plan to pay migrants to go back to their country of origin. Could we, for example, pay Syrian refugees to return home? Would they want to go? How much would it cost?

    You just fly them there and land them in their home country, consequences be dammed. It's really time to be more confrontational about these things. If Albania doesn't want to take its criminals back then that's that not our problem, we just force them to do it by gunboat if necessary.
    Just so I understand you - you are advocating the UK (presumably) paying for a flight to take off and head to a country and try to land without permission from local air traffic control thereby risking a serious incident.

    Let's assume they land - the local Police surround the plane and go in taking off and detaining the British crew by force and seizing the plane as an asset.

    How is any part of this a viable policy?

    "Confrontational" doesn't mean effective, practical or sensible - it usually means a lot of shouting and nothing getting done.
    As I said, use gunboat diplomacy if necessary, use tariffs, use whatever means necessary as far as blocking their legitimate business from operating within our borders if they choose not to take back their criminals. We need to be much, much more confrontational about it, and if they still choose not to do so, then fly military planes with an escort of fighter jets.

    It's very easy to deny a runway by parking trucks on it so I presume the next logical development of your outstanding plan is to chuck the returnees out of the back of an A400M with a parachute. Or maybe without.

    It'd be far cheaper just to bribe the necessary Albanians politicians to take them back than, and I can't believe I'm writing this, invade Albania in order to return deportees there.
    Put the returnees in Zorb balls. Then drop them at 50 feet while playing the theme from The Dambusters.

    https://youtu.be/tYClSGINHyU?si=v2ZFmPqj6gc4r-L3
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    I confess I'm no expert on"right wing" politics but how would any new party set up by Lowe and Habib, whether funded by Musk or not, be different to Reform?

    I've seen "mass deportations" mentioned - this is one of Trump's slogans but I've no idea how many people have been deported, to where and how much it has cost the US?

    The same questions apply here - who are we seeking to deport? I note the Conservatives have finally decided any foreign national committing a crime will be deported and any country who refuses to take back their citizens will have its own citizens barred from obtaining visas for the UK.

    Quite apart from the international legality of these proposals (about which I'm unclear) are we then going to see tit-for-tat repatriations of British nationals in foreign jails? What about dual passport holders? It's a superficially popular policy though not free as presumably if a criminal from Mali or Uruguay needs tobe deported, we'll have to pay to send them back to their country of "origin".

    Foreign criminals represent about 12% of the current prison population so that would make some space but presumably for the 2,000 or so British citizens detained in foreign jails.

    It might be difficult if any British citizen committing a crime abroad is also liable to immediate repatriation so a superficially popular policy needs plenty of thought. What if a group of lads gets into a brawl in Benidorm and they all get arrested and charged with criminal damage. Presumably, if convicted, Spain could throw them all out and they'd arrive back in Luton.

    I've heard the term "re-migration" mentioned - there was once a plan to pay migrants to go back to their country of origin. Could we, for example, pay Syrian refugees to return home? Would they want to go? How much would it cost?

    Voluntary repatriation is controversial, but it happens. German federal scheme:

    https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/27/germany-offers-year-of-rent-to-asylum-seekers-who-return-home
    We offer £3k.

    You can get help to return to your home country if you do not have permission to remain in the UK. This is known as ‘voluntary return’.

    If you are eligible, the voluntary returns service can:

    explain your options for returning home

    help you get travel documents, such as a passport

    pay for travel tickets, if you are unable to

    You may also be eligible to apply for financial support of up to £3,000. You can use this support to find somewhere to live, find a job or start a business in your home country.

    https://www.gov.uk/return-home-voluntarily#:~:text=You can get help to,your options for returning home

    It looks like it has been in place since 2014, but I'm sure on the payment:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20141122192910/https://www.gov.uk/return-home-voluntarily
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,419

    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    I didn't know that but if this helps


    Labour 24 [-2]
    Reform 23 [-2]
    Conservative 22 [+1]
    Lib Dem 15 [+1]

    Actually at Abergavenny on way to Cardiff for lunch before home just after tea

    Great service on TFW and lovely landscapes
    This must get better every time it's repeated, which is why this is at least the third time it has been posted.
    What we’ve not done yet is the ratios:

    LLG 48 RefCon 45
    SPLORG 54 LabCon 46
    Con:Ref ratio 0.957 (comfortably far from replacement risk for the Tories)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,419

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    @JayinKyiv

    For 3 years, Ukraine played nice, obeying US restrictions on what they could and couldn't do to Putin and his delicate sensibilities while Russians murder thousands of Ukrainian men women and children.

    But with the US joining Russia, that's over

    Moscow. In flames

    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1899386180803711445
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    The military, in the West, generally take the view that more *useful* damage can be done with smart weapons than tactical nuclear weapons. With the added advantage of less escalation risk.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    It'd probably be NATO ex the US now though, which somewhat changes the force calculation. Still perhaps sufficient but definitely not as overwhelming
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,151
    edited March 11

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Re : MaxPB

    stodge said:



    Just so I understand you - you are advocating the UK (presumably) paying for a flight to take off and head to a country and try to land without permission from local air traffic control thereby risking a serious incident.

    Let's assume they land - the local Police surround the plane and go in taking off and detaining the British crew by force and seizing the plane as an asset.

    How is any part of this a viable policy?

    "Confrontational" doesn't mean effective, practical or sensible - it usually means a lot of shouting and nothing getting done.

    Hold on, is there no duty on nations to receive back their own citizens written into international law. Probably not, it's all very keen on rights and obligations of wherever people are going to but that's one obligation that really should be in there. If nation A wishes to deport citizens of country B back to country B, country B should damn well be obliged to take them.
    As I understand it, there is generally held to be obligation under international law for a state to accept its own citizens back into the country, even if they have been deported from another country. However, there may be exceptions of national security etc. These may include where someone has committed a serious crime, which leads us back to square one.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,046

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    Well people need to start doing a better job of rebutting.
    If one reads PB there is plenty of rebuttal.
    I've not seen many rebuttals of the judicial decisions allowing foreign criminals to stay.
    Er, you were clearly demanding "a better job of rebutting" the "selective" and "duplicitous reporting" and "misrepresenting" of such decisions.
    Are you suggesting bondegezou has done that? I would expect detail not just saying someone is wrong.
    One can't provide a detailed rebuttal without having a specific case to discuss. You offered no specifics in the first place, so how can you get detail back?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000

    Pulpstar said:

    Re : MaxPB

    stodge said:



    Just so I understand you - you are advocating the UK (presumably) paying for a flight to take off and head to a country and try to land without permission from local air traffic control thereby risking a serious incident.

    Let's assume they land - the local Police surround the plane and go in taking off and detaining the British crew by force and seizing the plane as an asset.

    How is any part of this a viable policy?

    "Confrontational" doesn't mean effective, practical or sensible - it usually means a lot of shouting and nothing getting done.

    Hold on, is there no duty on nations to receive back their own citizens written into international law. Probably not, it's all very keen on rights and obligations of wherever people are going to but that's one obligation that really should be in there. If nation A wishes to deport citizens of country B back to country B, country B should damn well be obliged to take them.
    As I understand it, there is generally held to be obligation under international law for a state to accept its own citizens back into the country, even if they have been deported from another country. However, there may be exceptions of national security etc. These may include where someone has committed a serious crime, which leads us back to square one.
    Shouldn't be a barrier, which leads me rather weirdly to the Kitchens/Farage position but n Begun if we can sort the rest of the system out for keeping her in Strangeways..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,046

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,242
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    I confess I'm no expert on"right wing" politics but how would any new party set up by Lowe and Habib, whether funded by Musk or not, be different to Reform?

    I've seen "mass deportations" mentioned - this is one of Trump's slogans but I've no idea how many people have been deported, to where and how much it has cost the US?

    The same questions apply here - who are we seeking to deport? I note the Conservatives have finally decided any foreign national committing a crime will be deported and any country who refuses to take back their citizens will have its own citizens barred from obtaining visas for the UK.

    Quite apart from the international legality of these proposals (about which I'm unclear) are we then going to see tit-for-tat repatriations of British nationals in foreign jails? What about dual passport holders? It's a superficially popular policy though not free as presumably if a criminal from Mali or Uruguay needs tobe deported, we'll have to pay to send them back to their country of "origin".

    Foreign criminals represent about 12% of the current prison population so that would make some space but presumably for the 2,000 or so British citizens detained in foreign jails.

    It might be difficult if any British citizen committing a crime abroad is also liable to immediate repatriation so a superficially popular policy needs plenty of thought. What if a group of lads gets into a brawl in Benidorm and they all get arrested and charged with criminal damage. Presumably, if convicted, Spain could throw them all out and they'd arrive back in Luton.

    I've heard the term "re-migration" mentioned - there was once a plan to pay migrants to go back to their country of origin. Could we, for example, pay Syrian refugees to return home? Would they want to go? How much would it cost?

    What Tice et al mean is that instead of courts deciding who is in an illegal immigrant it should be up to the Daily Mail. Soon to be replaced with Twitter.

    Every party supports deporting illegal immigrants as decided by a court, always have done, always will do.
    It's not about illegal immigrants. It's about people who look different.
    Really? Poles and Romanians don't look different.
    Actually I think they do, to an extent. And some older folk find having their towns "over-run" by people mostly speaking foreign languages to be something that they didn't ask for and don't want.
    I had a Polish carer for a while; until she spoke she was indistinguishable from any other Essex female of a similar age.

    And at one stage in my life I lived in a town with three Czechoslovak (then) emigre doctors. Same applied; indistinguishable until they opened their mouths.
    Must have been odd, having all these foreigners hanging about not saying anything.
    The GP’s were very popular, although sometimes known as the ‘ Dud Cheque practice’!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
    So it's the seriousness of the crime that matters?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Which bit of Mutually Assured Destruction do you have trouble with?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,144
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,046

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
    So it's the seriousness of the crime that matters?
    The current law takes account of the seriousness of the crime, how integrated the person is to their current life in the UK, and the problems they may face if returning to another country, as per this infographic:



    That broadly seems sensible to me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Which bit of Mutually Assured Destruction do you have trouble with?
    The fact that according to HY's programme of retaliation the "mutually" bit is a bit one sided.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
    So it's the seriousness of the crime that matters?
    The current law takes account of the seriousness of the crime, how integrated the person is to their current life in the UK, and the problems they may face if returning to another country, as per this infographic:



    That broadly seems sensible to me.
    It’s missing a few things. Instant deportation (by trebuchet) for

    - pineapple on pizza
    - Python
    - Possessing more than 5 grams of pre-flaked Parmesan
    - ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,748

    Carnyx said:

    Not that you would know, and it's sure not your fault, but Twitter just doesn't work for non-members any more.
    I didn't know that but if this helps


    Labour 24 [-2]
    Reform 23 [-2]
    Conservative 22 [+1]
    Lib Dem 15 [+1]

    Actually at Abergavenny on way to Cardiff for lunch before home just after tea

    Great service on TFW and lovely landscapes
    This must get better every time it's repeated, which is why this is at least the third time it has been posted.
    Why - are there two other posters on my train ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Which bit of Mutually Assured Destruction do you have trouble with?
    The fact that according to HY's programme of retaliation the "mutually" bit is a bit one sided.
    The idea is that once it is certain that Radio 3 is gone forever, *then* we nuke Moscow. Hence the subs.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 539

    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Starmer decries ‘worst of all worlds’ benefits system ahead of deep cuts
    PM expected to announce billions in savings from personal independence payment, the main disability benefit"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/10/starmer-decries-worst-of-all-worlds-benefits-systems-ahead-of-deep-cuts

    There's a debate to be had about what kind of welfare system we want and/or are willing to afford.

    Wanting high levels of benefits without the concomitant contributions is up there with cut my taxes and spend more on hospitals and schools for naivety and stupidity.

    There has to be a safety net for those in genuine need - I don't think anyone disputes that. The argument seems to be the increase in those on disability benefits (a by product of Covid and the mental and physical health problems that has caused) has increased spending on the welfare budget beyond that which is affordable given the current state of the public finances.

    It's analogous to the SEN problem for local Government whereby demand has risen almost exponentially since Covid.

    I'm tempted to ask why no one in Government (the Civil Service) foresaw the likelihood of increased mental and physical health problems post Covid - if you were looking at the after effects of any significant traumatic event, they would be at the top of my list. The desire to return to "normal" presumably overrode considerations of longer term consequences.

    We have tens of thousands of people who have been declared unfit to work yet from the bully pulpit, we get exhortations of "they're scroungers, get them back to work". In the current world of under employment finding "work" is one thing, finding the work that works for you is something else. Put another way, there are jobs to be done but usually the jobs no one wants to do for the money being offered.
    First thing is to make it impossible to get more from benefits than you would from employment and that includes the free housing / council tax.
    That would focus a few minds. A big scam with chancers everywhere just coining it in as it is much better paid than working. Make payments only to those who raelly need it.
    Good idea, lets means test the state pension.
    The pension is not a benefit.
    Think the argument on this one is that had everyone paid an actuarial rate for the monies they now receive it would be not be a benefit. But as many have not paid enough to cover the current outlay then it can be classed as one. The very fact that pensions are paid out of current taxation rather than sum accumulated fund is simply down to the profligacy of previous administrations.

    Like the Waspi women, every has been misled.

    I'm off to get a tin hat now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,151
    edited March 11

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
    So it's the seriousness of the crime that matters?
    The current law takes account of the seriousness of the crime, how integrated the person is to their current life in the UK, and the problems they may face if returning to another country, as per this infographic:



    That broadly seems sensible to me.
    It’s missing a few things. Instant deportation (by trebuchet) for

    - pineapple on pizza
    - Python
    - Possessing more than 5 grams of pre-flaked Parmesan
    - ?
    Chocolate on coffee?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Deterrence relies on a slightly less predictable response than HYUFD.
    But not too unpredictable. (Like Trump)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    edited March 11
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    It'd probably be NATO ex the US now though, which somewhat changes the force calculation. Still perhaps sufficient but definitely not as overwhelming
    Maybe not so much Mutually Assured Destruction as MutuallyMakingQuiteAFuckingMessOfYourManor...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Thanks to @MoonRabbit for the selections.

    Having missed most of the British winter (and the racing), I'm probably at a disadvantage but my day one selections as follows:

    Supreme Novices Hurdle: ROMEO COOLIO (each way)
    Arkle Novices Chase: L'EAU DU SUD
    Mares Hurdle: LOSSIEMOUTH
    Champion Hurdle: STATE MAN (each way)

    Thoughts? Mullins had a 1/8 shot turned over at Plumpton yesterday but then he had four at Naas on Sunday so I don't know. There are fools, damn fools and people who bet odds on in novice chases, I was once told, so I can't have MAJBOROUGH at 1/2.

    The ground will be quick enough despite the watering and they'll go a decent gallop in the Supreme so I'm happy to oppose KOPEK DES BORDES at 4/5 and ROMEO COOLIO has Grade 1 winning form on good ground.

    The Mares looks a penalty kick for LOSSIEMOUTH who many think should be in the Champion. I think two and a half is her trip now and you won't get rich at 4/6 but put one up against her on form...

    As for the Champion, I don't know - BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD was superb at Christmas but can she repeat this on quicker ground? I can't believe last year's winner is 12/1 - take out the Christmas defeat and his form is pretty strong - yes, CONSTITUTION HILL saw him off easily two years ago but as a wise man once said, that was than and this is now. I'm not sure he's the machine he was but he may still be good enough and if STATE MAN follows him home and you're on each way you'll still be ahead at the price.

    I'd advise a point each way on both ROMEO COOLIO and STATE MAN, two point win on L'EAU DU SUD and three point win LOSSIEMOUTH.

    (A point is whatever your stake is - whether it be £10, £1000 or higher).

    What a second race!

    MAJBOROUGH does look very good. Do believe the hype. But one bad jump, and nearly recovered.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,150
    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,853
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    I would tend to agree with this. Let's see if the Gulf talks can get anywhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099
    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    The attacks on Tesla dealerships are reminiscent of the left wing terror that swept Germany in the 1970s. Executives at the Berlin factory should be upgrading their security.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,972
    Nigelb said:

    Dondamus ?


    Two of now redundant.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    @JenniferJJacobs

    In message that was deleted and reposted, Trump said he will:
    - "permanently" shut Canadian car industry by raising tariffs substantially
    -declare a national emergency on energy
    -raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%

    https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1899462852659863638
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,805
    So the London market has held up, despite the falls in Asia, and Tesla is holding up so far, but the wider US market is plunging again since its open less than an hour back.
  • malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Fuck off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    Dura_Ace said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
    Didn't Biden message something along those lines ?

    https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
    ...Biden established a final parameter when he warned Russia explicitly against any use of nuclear weapons. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale would be completely unacceptable to the United States as well as to the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.”..

    The whole article is informative, and the US 'learning by doing' approach to deterrence perhaps goes some way to explain the very slow escalation of US support for Ukraine under the last administration.

    I've no idea what the current nutter would do.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    edited March 11

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight are very serious foreign criminals who have not been deported for bizarre reasons. He may be simplifying the full explanation for the judge's decision but I'd think 80-90% of people would agree with the general thrust.

    The cases Goodwin tends to highlight have usually not been deported for sensible reasons, but someone has selectively picked something out of the court's ruling to make it seem like a bizarre reason. There is a lot of duplicitous reporting; not merely "simplifying the full explanation" but misrepresenting it wholesale.
    There are no sensible reasons not to deport foreign criminals.
    If someone has lived in the UK for most of their life, has indefinite leave to remain in the UK, and then commits a minor crime (e.g., speeding), then I do not think it would be sensible to deport them.
    So it's the seriousness of the crime that matters?
    The current law takes account of the seriousness of the crime, how integrated the person is to their current life in the UK, and the problems they may face if returning to another country, as per this infographic:



    That broadly seems sensible to me.
    It’s missing a few things. Instant deportation (by trebuchet) for

    - pineapple on pizza
    - Python
    - Possessing more than 5 grams of pre-flaked Parmesan
    - ?
    We can use trebuchet to deal with the speeders mentioned above, or set up a ski jump at the top of the white cliffs.

    By either route, we use ducking stool determination ... if you die you are innocent.

    https://youtu.be/NMpAE4L7n2Y?t=210

    Progressive ... moi? :smile:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    Nigelb said:

    I've no idea what the current nutter would do.

    If Putin nukes Kyiv, Trumpski would probably nuke Toronto in return
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    Elon is spamming X with a shedload of new accounts claiming to stand up to liberal violence by purchasing a new Tesla.

    So I'm guessing sales still aren't great.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Fuck off.
    I always enjoy PB's traditional exchange of cross generation courtesies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,068
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    Elon is spamming X with a shedload of new accounts claiming to stand up to liberal violence by purchasing a new Tesla.

    So I'm guessing sales still aren't great.
    The stock is crashing faster than a SpaceX rocket
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Fuck off.
    HorseBat, you need to go back to the School of Diplomacy and ask for your money back.

    What about the argument not all pensioners are in a great place, many struggling to heat and eat in recent years. So rather than being so dismissive of all pensioners benefiting from Triple Lock, how to find savings where the payout is not needed, without hitting the poorest?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,144
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
    Didn't Biden message something along those lines ?

    https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
    ...Biden established a final parameter when he warned Russia explicitly against any use of nuclear weapons. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale would be completely unacceptable to the United States as well as to the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.”..

    "Severe consequences" isn't a guarantee of a "massive conventional retaliation".

  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
    Deterrence theory has moved on a bit since the days of Walter Matthau.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,425
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
    Didn't Biden message something along those lines ?

    https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
    ...Biden established a final parameter when he warned Russia explicitly against any use of nuclear weapons. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale would be completely unacceptable to the United States as well as to the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.”..

    "Severe consequences" isn't a guarantee of a "massive conventional retaliation".

    What do you think “severe consequences” meant in that context?

    Cancelling Putin’s Tinder account?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    Elon is spamming X with a shedload of new accounts claiming to stand up to liberal violence by purchasing a new Tesla.

    So I'm guessing sales still aren't great.
    He should be more creative with the bots. People sticking it to the globalists by installing a Tesla Solar Roof, standing up against net zero lunacy by installing multiple Tesla Powerwalls, etc.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    Elon is spamming X with a shedload of new accounts claiming to stand up to liberal violence by purchasing a new Tesla.

    So I'm guessing sales still aren't great.
    The stock is crashing faster than a SpaceX rocket
    I’m glad I’m not American. Given the way Musk sued companies who wouldn’t advertise on Twitter due to problematic ad placement he’s going to sue all Americans who don’t own a Tesla
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    Glad to see everyone so cheery today :D
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,294
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    Elon is spamming X with a shedload of new accounts claiming to stand up to liberal violence by purchasing a new Tesla.

    So I'm guessing sales still aren't great.
    The stock is crashing faster than a SpaceX rocket
    I feel sorry for the astronauts stranded on the space station, if they're relying on elon's spaceZ.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,675
    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    Has Mr Chump explained why charging 50% tariffs on Canadian steel imported to use in USA made cars, whilst having a tariff exemption for cars made in North America with 75% North American content will close down the CANADIAN car industry?

    Just asking

    * innocent face*
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    Doesn't Canada have tariffs on US steel though ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    edited March 11
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
    Didn't Biden message something along those lines ?

    https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
    ...Biden established a final parameter when he warned Russia explicitly against any use of nuclear weapons. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale would be completely unacceptable to the United States as well as to the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.”..

    "Severe consequences" isn't a guarantee of a "massive conventional retaliation".

    From what's known of the US escalation ladder, it certainly includes that (and was understood as such by commentators at the time). The uncertainty over what it definitely meant is part of how the US does (did) deterrence.

    Russia is a bit different, explicitly threatening all manner of stuff, in response to particular situations, that it doesn't necessarily follow through on.

    In reality, there isn't a huge practical difference between the two styles.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,751
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
    Deterrence theory has moved on a bit since the days of Walter Matthau.
    FAIL-SAFE (1963): excerpt "The First Strike Argument" (2 mins), with Walter Matthau as the hawkish civilian Pentagon advisor, Prof. Groeteschele
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 539
    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Translation?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,481

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    The classic response to a nuke on Ukraine would be to nuke one or more of the Russian rail depots supporting the front line.
    Or massive conventional retaliation by NATO forces, as was threatened back when Putin was last sounding off on tactical nukes.
    Threatened by whom?
    Didn't Biden message something along those lines ?

    https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/programs-and-projects/kissinger-center-papers/escalation-management-ukraine-response-russias-manipulation-risk
    ...Biden established a final parameter when he warned Russia explicitly against any use of nuclear weapons. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale would be completely unacceptable to the United States as well as to the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.”..

    "Severe consequences" isn't a guarantee of a "massive conventional retaliation".

    What do you think “severe consequences” meant in that context?

    Cancelling Putin’s Tinder account?
    Grindr surely?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,394
    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Translation?
    I want the triple lock left in place
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,294
    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Translation?
    888
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,886

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Fuck off.
    No need to use bad language. I've been on here for 15 years and never used it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,150

    kamski said:

    Has Trump bought his new Tesla yet?

    I doubt this gesture will help Tesla sales here in Germany (down 76% last month). But plenty of people will be making their own gestures...

    The attacks on Tesla dealerships are reminiscent of the left wing terror that swept Germany in the 1970s. Executives at the Berlin factory should be upgrading their security.
    and Williamglenn is reminiscent of Joseph Goebbels.

    btw attacks on Tesla dealerships are happening in the US, so I'm not sure why the Tesla executives in Berlin should be especially careful.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,046
    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Translation?
    I want the triple lock left in place
    I want to try these triple choc cookies: https://www.taste.com.au/recipes/triple-choc-cookies-2/6c863113-1466-419d-9d61-2ad3bd110be9
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,718
    edited March 11
    eek said:

    Trump had added another 25% tariff on steel imports from Canada

    I take it some states don’t want electricity

    Doug Ford is mad and intransigent enough to do it (eg he's ripping out all the cycle lanes in Toronto, despite all the evidence).

    This is the first time Trump has come up against someone equally pugnacious.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,921
    Andy_JS said:

    malcolmg said:

    The pension is a benefit and it’s about time the triple lock be scrapped and pensioners made to suffer for the absolute pisstaking they’ve performed.

    Away and bile your heid you halfwitted imbecilic moron. Get out and make your own money and stop whining about the miserable pittance pensioners get.
    Fuck off.
    No need to use bad language. I've been on here for 15 years and never used it.
    If someone calls another poster a halfwitted imbecilic moron, then it seems fuck off is not an unreasonable response. Just because you don't swear doesn't mean the rest of us have to follow, free speech and all that jazz.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,099
    edited March 11
    Scott_xP said:

    @JenniferJJacobs

    In message that was deleted and reposted, Trump said he will:
    - "permanently" shut Canadian car industry by raising tariffs substantially
    -declare a national emergency on energy
    -raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%

    https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1899462852659863638

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1899464660094423301

    Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on "Electricity" coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th. Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada. If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA! Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection. We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY??? This cannot continue. The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians' taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, "O Canada," will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,144
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Ukraine will have to give up land seized by Russia as part of any peace deal as he flew to Saudi Arabia for make-or-break talks

    On that Rubio is right, no chance Russia agrees to any ceasefire without keeping the land it has already gained
    Why is the US accepting Russian conditions before negotiations have even started ?
    While actively attacking Ukraine's.

    You might as well say there's no chance of Russia agreeing a ceasefire without Ukraine's capitulation.
    Russia wants all the regions it has partly gained not just the bits it has now occupied.

    Both sides will have to compromise for a peace deal
    Which is why it is so disgusting that the US is seeking an unjust peace. Team Orange seem to forget that there are purposes in fighting a war. They are clearly selling Ukraine down the river. For Ukraine to continue killing Russians degrades their army and makes it unlikely they could try it on anywhere else any time soon. Also condemns millions of Ukrainians to occupation and genocide
    The only way Russia can be defeated is to force Russian troops out of Ukraine entirely but Putin would likely use a nuclear bomb of some form if he looked like losing that badly.

    Otherwise it has to be some division of boundaries of territory in which neither Ukraine nor Russia get all they want for peace
    Why are you so convinced about him using a nuclear bomb? Just think. What would be the consequences for him of doing so?
    Little more sanctions than he already has and Russia has more nuclear missiles than any other nation on earth
    The consequences would ultimately be nuclear strikes on Moscow. Might take a while, but that’s the end game. Now, we’d all be fried too but Putin is not a nihilist or mad.
    Not if just tactical nukes used in Ukraine, Moscow would only be nuked if London, Paris or New York or DC or LA were nuked
    So Putin can nuke his way to just short of Alsace and he'll be exempt from any nuclear retaliatory action?
    I highly doubt France, the UK or US would actually when it came down to it nuke Russia unless they themselves had been nuked by Putin.

    The nuclear missile umbrella for all non US and non UK NATO nations Macron is talking about is principally just to make Putin think they might if he invaded or nuked a NATO nation which didn't have nuclear missiles
    Nuclear proliferation was a bit rubbish then. If we can only use our nukes when London and Paris have been reduced to rubble it wasn't much of a deterrent.
    Yes Prime Minister summarised it well

    https://www.facebook.com/ukcomedyfans/videos/yes-prime-minister-nuclear-deterrent/1784300631870797/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7YR6WICIAI
    Which is why you General Power in charge if your nuclear weapons. For those whose don’t know, Curtis Le May thought Power was a bit too enthusiastic about war.
    Deterrence theory has moved on a bit since the days of Walter Matthau.
    FAIL-SAFE (1963): excerpt "The First Strike Argument" (2 mins), with Walter Matthau as the hawkish civilian Pentagon advisor, Prof. Groeteschele
    The old days, just on the cusp of the nuclear triad / assured second strike regime.

    I think they hand painted the electronic situation display for the movie ?
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