Polish PM Donald Tusk, speaking before his flight to London for the European Ukraine summit:
“500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”
I mean I've only seen the highlights but surely Trump is simply taking a side in one of the oldest and most difficult dilemmas. What is worth giving up to stop the killing.
Why is dealing with that impossible question so reprehensible.
We see it in aid all the time (enable/support the tyrants to get food to the citizens..)
Yes, he’s decided that giving up Ukraine is worth it to stem the expense to the US. The democratically elected government of Ukraine - along with the opposition, judging by their public comments yesterday, disagree.
Chuck into the mix Europe’s future security, which the US has apparently decided is no longer a matter for them, then a polite no thanks is in order. No skin in the game, no say.
All that, of course, is predicated on Europe getting its shit together over the next few days and weeks.
I would like to see Europe get its shit together in the next 24 hours.
The billions the UK promised yesterday are a good start.
Lets show the Americans we can help defeat Russia with or without them - but if its without them, they don't get a say in what happens afterwards.
What jobs will guarantee exemption from being called up to fight in this proposed EU war against Russia? I'll get my lads writing their job applications out ASAP.
Who said anything about the EU? Or war with Russia?
Russia is a small country, it is smaller than Italy economically. It is not some mighty bear that we should be afraid of.
Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our backing, we have no reason or need to go to war, just continue to support Ukraine.
Do you think what is happening now (what you want to continue with) is going to allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Eventually, yes.
And that is a legitimate view, if misguided in my mind. It means thousands more deaths of people that are not you or your family but so be it. Trump's is that he wants the killing to stop. With all the compromises that involves. Why is that view so reprehensible.
Trump doesn't want the killing to stop. He wants Ukraine to surrender, after which hundreds of thousands will be killed by Russia. Stopping the war doesn't bring peace, it enables genocide.
I think this probably needs a bit of an accompanying explainer?
Not for anyone who has been paying attention for the last decade
Well given that you seem to think that's what you've been doing, perhaps you will favour us with an explanation of how demographically challenged Russia, having achieved all its territorial ambitions, is going to slaughter 200,000+ innocents.
Historically, conquering armies have had little trouble in massacring civilians.
In Ukraine, we have detailed, criminal case grade evidence of murders, expulsions and kidnapping of children in the areas occupied by Russia. En masse.9
In addition, the original plans for the Russian invasion were captured. They included mass arrests of the political and intellectual classes, as part of a plan to eliminate the idea of Ukraine as a separate state to Russia, culturally.
So you need to explain why you think that the Russians would behave differently in any areas of the Ukraine they conquer from now, to the way they behaved (and planned to behave) in those they have conquered.
I can well believe that they plan to do all those horrible things. But none of them amount to killing hundreds of thousands, or anything like. That's why I asked for an explanation, and why I wasn't surprised not to get one.
May be we can work to the internationally accepted definition of “genocide” rather than the pretendy straw man made up by a Russian sympathising conspiracy theorist such as yourself?
@Luckyguy1983 reminds me of one of those supporters of serial criminals - “Yeah, sure, he’s on bail from being on bail from being on bail for beating his pregnant girlfriend. But there’s absolutely no evidence that he will beat his girlfriend again, if we give him bail.”
As a complete aside, the cheapest flights from London to Auckland are those which transit through Shanghai Pudong. The six hour layover is a bit of a pain but it may be worth considering especially if the airport has @Leon's approval though presumably one of the two lounges has his name on it.
Back to less serious matters and the gathering of the great and good at Lancaster House looks impressive but I go back to where I started yesterday morning - what does a "peace deal" look like on the ground? Would Putin accept European peacekeepers on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk? I suspect not.
Is this a step on the road to a more "united" Europe? Certainly, recent events have forced the Europeans together and even Meloni seems willing to be seen as a good European for now. The notion of Europe as a superpower isn't without credibility - it has the economic and military potential to act as a significant power but unlike the single entities that are the USA, Russia and China, you have a motley collection of states more akin to pre-Roman Britain but nothing unifies like a common enemy (or enemies).
Is this the day we finally see the coming of "Europe", not as Monnet or Adenauer might have conceived but something rather different? The lesson of the incredibly successful NATO shouldn't be lost on any new European Security Organisation - it's not about rigid conformity or political unity - indeed, the diversity of Europe could and should be the source of its strength. If NATO is redundant then so is the EU perhaps.
We need to increase funding to the BBC. And setup programmes that can flood the zone with facts. Outgun the Russian bots and their minions and beat them at their own game.
Fuck that. We need to abolish the license fee and let the BBC find their own funding. Subscription, ads or whatever.
Direct taxation on either internet access or via the council tax.
Take your pick one or the other is coming..
Neither, let people choose to subscribe and if they choose not to that's their free choice.
The World Service has strategic value and should be funded by the state
The World Service is funded by the state.
Eastenders and Match of the Day and Homes Under the Hammer have no strategic value and should not be paid by taxpayers.
The world service isn’t - it used to be, but then Osborne came up with a wizard wheeze and pushed it on to the BBC’s P&L in the previous settlement.
There is value from having quality programming, including news, in the UK which can justifiably be funded through by the taxpayer. But that should be distinct from the purely commercial offerings of the likes of Eastenders for whom a subscription model would be more than adequate.
And it should be setting up as a funding vehicle that would match fund commercial activities, ideally as a soft loan.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
I mean I've only seen the highlights but surely Trump is simply taking a side in one of the oldest and most difficult dilemmas. What is worth giving up to stop the killing.
Why is dealing with that impossible question so reprehensible.
We see it in aid all the time (enable/support the tyrants to get food to the citizens..)
Yes, he’s decided that giving up Ukraine is worth it to stem the expense to the US. The democratically elected government of Ukraine - along with the opposition, judging by their public comments yesterday, disagree.
Chuck into the mix Europe’s future security, which the US has apparently decided is no longer a matter for them, then a polite no thanks is in order. No skin in the game, no say.
All that, of course, is predicated on Europe getting its shit together over the next few days and weeks.
I would like to see Europe get its shit together in the next 24 hours.
The billions the UK promised yesterday are a good start.
Lets show the Americans we can help defeat Russia with or without them - but if its without them, they don't get a say in what happens afterwards.
What jobs will guarantee exemption from being called up to fight in this proposed EU war against Russia? I'll get my lads writing their job applications out ASAP.
Who said anything about the EU? Or war with Russia?
Russia is a small country, it is smaller than Italy economically. It is not some mighty bear that we should be afraid of.
Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our backing, we have no reason or need to go to war, just continue to support Ukraine.
Do you think what is happening now (what you want to continue with) is going to allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Eventually, yes.
And that is a legitimate view, if misguided in my mind. It means thousands more deaths of people that are not you or your family but so be it. Trump's is that he wants the killing to stop. With all the compromises that involves. Why is that view so reprehensible.
Trump doesn't want the killing to stop. He wants Ukraine to surrender, after which hundreds of thousands will be killed by Russia. Stopping the war doesn't bring peace, it enables genocide.
I think this probably needs a bit of an accompanying explainer?
Not for anyone who has been paying attention for the last decade
Well given that you seem to think that's what you've been doing, perhaps you will favour us with an explanation of how demographically challenged Russia, having achieved all its territorial ambitions, is going to slaughter 200,000+ innocents.
Historically, conquering armies have had little trouble in massacring civilians.
In Ukraine, we have detailed, criminal case grade evidence of murders, expulsions and kidnapping of children in the areas occupied by Russia. En masse.9
In addition, the original plans for the Russian invasion were captured. They included mass arrests of the political and intellectual classes, as part of a plan to eliminate the idea of Ukraine as a separate state to Russia, culturally.
So you need to explain why you think that the Russians would behave differently in any areas of the Ukraine they conquer from now, to the way they behaved (and planned to behave) in those they have conquered.
I can well believe that they plan to do all those horrible things. But none of them amount to killing hundreds of thousands, or anything like. That's why I asked for an explanation, and why I wasn't surprised not to get one.
May be we can work to the internationally accepted definition of “genocide” rather than the pretendy straw man made up by a Russian sympathising conspiracy theorist such as yourself?
Maybe you could actually READ you daft fuckwit - I was asking for John Lilburne's explanation of his supposition that hundreds of thousands would be killed if Ukraine surrendered. Genocide wasn't mentioned.
Israeli forces are preparing to advance toward Damascus, Syria, to defend the Druze suburb of Jaramana, currently under attack by the Syrian regime (HTS).
Good for Israel. Hope they can protect the Druze.
No doubt @bondegezou will be along before long to repeat his spin that Israel is attacking peaceful Syria unprovoked (despite them being legally at war), that the new regime are peaceful and have done nothing wrong (despite them being proscribed terrorists in this country before they took over) and that the Druze don't need protection.
Anything to blame Israel, plus ça change.
You are responding to a williamglenn post. You don’t think he might have selected a tweet from a somewhat biased source? Are you really that naive?
Oh I know full well he might have.
Not as naïve as the individual who claimed with a straight face that Israel is not at war with Syria. Who was that again?
Israel and Syria are legally at war, but there has been a UN-overseen ceasefire for decades. Israel has now repeatedly attacked Syria, unprovoked. They marched into the UN buffer zone. They have repeatedly bombed Syria. This is landgrab.
They are at war, yes. Ceasefire is meaningless, just ask the Ukrainians.
Syria is now under the control of what was a formerly proscribed terrorist organisation that has been nihilistic towards Israel and in favour of Israel's destruction. If grabbing land from their enemy they're at war with aids their survival, then good for them!
It’s a ceasefire that’s held for, I think, longer than you’ve been alive. To dismiss it is naive.
One person was killed in Damascus and Israel are saying that justifies invasion. Netanyahu is like Trump and Putin.
Yet not a ceasefire that led to a peace treaty so the status of war is still valid.
I despise Netanyahu but the war predates him, and my birth, and the birth of almost everyone on this site.
It's a shame that the Assad regime fell, as that regime protected minorities. The present regime are ISIS adjacent, and letting out ISIS (from their SDF captors) is likely to be the next step.
And we wonder why Trump questions liberal interventionism?
Not only did Assad support ISIS, but Trump has threatened to abandon the SDF, who are the ones primarily responsible (with US help) for containing ISIS. The new government in Damascus has every reason to want ISIS defeated, unlike Assad.
Israel, for their own reasons, just want to scupper the chance of an end to the civil war in Syria.
That's a collection of statements that bear no relation to each other or to the truth.
New government in Damascus has every reason ISIS is defeated: this is just logical, as they want control over the whole of Syria.
You seem to support Assad, who helped ISIS, refused to fight them while he was doing his best to murder everyone else, and is one of the worst war criminals in the world.
I mean I've only seen the highlights but surely Trump is simply taking a side in one of the oldest and most difficult dilemmas. What is worth giving up to stop the killing.
Why is dealing with that impossible question so reprehensible.
We see it in aid all the time (enable/support the tyrants to get food to the citizens..)
Yes, he’s decided that giving up Ukraine is worth it to stem the expense to the US. The democratically elected government of Ukraine - along with the opposition, judging by their public comments yesterday, disagree.
Chuck into the mix Europe’s future security, which the US has apparently decided is no longer a matter for them, then a polite no thanks is in order. No skin in the game, no say.
All that, of course, is predicated on Europe getting its shit together over the next few days and weeks.
I would like to see Europe get its shit together in the next 24 hours.
The billions the UK promised yesterday are a good start.
Lets show the Americans we can help defeat Russia with or without them - but if its without them, they don't get a say in what happens afterwards.
What jobs will guarantee exemption from being called up to fight in this proposed EU war against Russia? I'll get my lads writing their job applications out ASAP.
Who said anything about the EU? Or war with Russia?
Russia is a small country, it is smaller than Italy economically. It is not some mighty bear that we should be afraid of.
Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our backing, we have no reason or need to go to war, just continue to support Ukraine.
Do you think what is happening now (what you want to continue with) is going to allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Eventually, yes.
And that is a legitimate view, if misguided in my mind. It means thousands more deaths of people that are not you or your family but so be it. Trump's is that he wants the killing to stop. With all the compromises that involves. Why is that view so reprehensible.
Trump doesn't want the killing to stop. He wants Ukraine to surrender, after which hundreds of thousands will be killed by Russia. Stopping the war doesn't bring peace, it enables genocide.
I think this probably needs a bit of an accompanying explainer?
Not for anyone who has been paying attention for the last decade
Well given that you seem to think that's what you've been doing, perhaps you will favour us with an explanation of how demographically challenged Russia, having achieved all its territorial ambitions, is going to slaughter 200,000+ innocents.
Historically, conquering armies have had little trouble in massacring civilians.
In Ukraine, we have detailed, criminal case grade evidence of murders, expulsions and kidnapping of children in the areas occupied by Russia. En masse.9
In addition, the original plans for the Russian invasion were captured. They included mass arrests of the political and intellectual classes, as part of a plan to eliminate the idea of Ukraine as a separate state to Russia, culturally.
So you need to explain why you think that the Russians would behave differently in any areas of the Ukraine they conquer from now, to the way they behaved (and planned to behave) in those they have conquered.
I can well believe that they plan to do all those horrible things. But none of them amount to killing hundreds of thousands, or anything like. That's why I asked for an explanation, and why I wasn't surprised not to get one.
May be we can work to the internationally accepted definition of “genocide” rather than the pretendy straw man made up by a Russian sympathising conspiracy theorist such as yourself?
Maybe you could actually READ you daft fuckwit - I was asking for John Lilburne's explanation of his supposition that hundreds of thousands would be killed if Ukraine surrendered. Genocide wasn't mentioned.
What do you call it when an army deliberately murders civilians by the thousands? Not collateral damage in battle, but going out with a list of names, and shooting them.
It may be Starmer's appeasement of Trump and offer of a state visit will win back a few voters lost to Reform but voters concerned about Trump and Farage's closeness to him in particular likely go LD or Green not Labour. So they the LDs and Greens could be the biggest winners
The Conservatives will clearly be the net beneficiaries because they refused to kiss Trump's ring. Oh wait...
Kemi didn't last week, indeed Starmer was the one who offered him is second visit and Farage has always been closer to Trump.
I mean I've only seen the highlights but surely Trump is simply taking a side in one of the oldest and most difficult dilemmas. What is worth giving up to stop the killing.
Why is dealing with that impossible question so reprehensible.
We see it in aid all the time (enable/support the tyrants to get food to the citizens..)
Yes, he’s decided that giving up Ukraine is worth it to stem the expense to the US. The democratically elected government of Ukraine - along with the opposition, judging by their public comments yesterday, disagree.
Chuck into the mix Europe’s future security, which the US has apparently decided is no longer a matter for them, then a polite no thanks is in order. No skin in the game, no say.
All that, of course, is predicated on Europe getting its shit together over the next few days and weeks.
I would like to see Europe get its shit together in the next 24 hours.
The billions the UK promised yesterday are a good start.
Lets show the Americans we can help defeat Russia with or without them - but if its without them, they don't get a say in what happens afterwards.
What jobs will guarantee exemption from being called up to fight in this proposed EU war against Russia? I'll get my lads writing their job applications out ASAP.
Who said anything about the EU? Or war with Russia?
Russia is a small country, it is smaller than Italy economically. It is not some mighty bear that we should be afraid of.
Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our backing, we have no reason or need to go to war, just continue to support Ukraine.
Do you think what is happening now (what you want to continue with) is going to allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Eventually, yes.
And that is a legitimate view, if misguided in my mind. It means thousands more deaths of people that are not you or your family but so be it. Trump's is that he wants the killing to stop. With all the compromises that involves. Why is that view so reprehensible.
Trump doesn't want the killing to stop. He wants Ukraine to surrender, after which hundreds of thousands will be killed by Russia. Stopping the war doesn't bring peace, it enables genocide.
I think this probably needs a bit of an accompanying explainer?
Not for anyone who has been paying attention for the last decade
Well given that you seem to think that's what you've been doing, perhaps you will favour us with an explanation of how demographically challenged Russia, having achieved all its territorial ambitions, is going to slaughter 200,000+ innocents.
Historically, conquering armies have had little trouble in massacring civilians.
In Ukraine, we have detailed, criminal case grade evidence of murders, expulsions and kidnapping of children in the areas occupied by Russia. En masse.9
In addition, the original plans for the Russian invasion were captured. They included mass arrests of the political and intellectual classes, as part of a plan to eliminate the idea of Ukraine as a separate state to Russia, culturally.
So you need to explain why you think that the Russians would behave differently in any areas of the Ukraine they conquer from now, to the way they behaved (and planned to behave) in those they have conquered.
I can well believe that they plan to do all those horrible things. But none of them amount to killing hundreds of thousands, or anything like. That's why I asked for an explanation, and why I wasn't surprised not to get one.
May be we can work to the internationally accepted definition of “genocide” rather than the pretendy straw man made up by a Russian sympathising conspiracy theorist such as yourself?
Maybe you could actually READ you daft fuckwit - I was asking for John Lilburne's explanation of his supposition that hundreds of thousands would be killed if Ukraine surrendered. Genocide wasn't mentioned.
It was in the other post line to which you originally replied on. But of course truth doesn’t matter to you. Just your master’s bidding.
For a hostile superpower the Chinese are very friendly
Your first time to China? Amazing country. I spent 3 months of my gap year there back in 2011, met my wife there while she was on her gap year (though we didn't get together properly until 2013 when she came to London to do her masters degree). It's probably one of the best countries I've ever travelled in, amazing natural wonders, incredible food wherever you go and the people are very friendly despite few to none speaking English they're always happy to help.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
@Leon if you're spending more than a few days in China you absolutely need to go and do the Tiger Leaping Gorge trek, I think you're just about in the right season for it because the snow will have melted making the trek possible. I'd also recommend going to Xing Ping and seeing the limestone rock formations, absolutely amazing in person.
It's the one part of my gap year that I'm so glad I did, everywhere else seems like I can go back but China is one of those experiences that I don't think I'd ever be able to have again. In an era where smartphones were still not widely used, not much social media, the Chinese were less disposed to dislike foreigners and I really had a sense of being alone in a country of 1.3bn which was pretty scary at times before I got on the backpacker trail.
As a complete aside, the cheapest flights from London to Auckland are those which transit through Shanghai Pudong. The six hour layover is a bit of a pain but it may be worth considering especially if the airport has @Leon's approval though presumably one of the two lounges has his name on it.
Back to less serious matters and the gathering of the great and good at Lancaster House looks impressive but I go back to where I started yesterday morning - what does a "peace deal" look like on the ground? Would Putin accept European peacekeepers on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk? I suspect not.
Is this a step on the road to a more "united" Europe? Certainly, recent events have forced the Europeans together and even Meloni seems willing to be seen as a good European for now. The notion of Europe as a superpower isn't without credibility - it has the economic and military potential to act as a significant power but unlike the single entities that are the USA, Russia and China, you have a motley collection of states more akin to pre-Roman Britain but nothing unifies like a common enemy (or enemies).
Is this the day we finally see the coming of "Europe", not as Monnet or Adenauer might have conceived but something rather different? The lesson of the incredibly successful NATO shouldn't be lost on any new European Security Organisation - it's not about rigid conformity or political unity - indeed, the diversity of Europe could and should be the source of its strength. If NATO is redundant then so is the EU perhaps.
Er, Roman Britain and post-Roman Britain weren't unified either ... #pedanticbetting
For a hostile superpower the Chinese are very friendly
Your first time to China? Amazing country. I spent 3 months of my gap year there back in 2011, met my wife there while she was on her gap year (though we didn't get together properly until 2013 when she came to London to do her masters degree). It's probably one of the best countries I've ever travelled in, amazing natural wonders, incredible food wherever you go and the people are very friendly despite few to none speaking English they're always happy to help.
Ta but it’s about my tenth visit and this orne is just one night in Shanghai and I’m eyeing a late night cocktail
I’m due back in a couple of months for a more leisurely visit via Central Asia
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
As a complete aside, the cheapest flights from London to Auckland are those which transit through Shanghai Pudong. The six hour layover is a bit of a pain but it may be worth considering especially if the airport has @Leon's approval though presumably one of the two lounges has his name on it.
Back to less serious matters and the gathering of the great and good at Lancaster House looks impressive but I go back to where I started yesterday morning - what does a "peace deal" look like on the ground? Would Putin accept European peacekeepers on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk? I suspect not.
Is this a step on the road to a more "united" Europe? Certainly, recent events have forced the Europeans together and even Meloni seems willing to be seen as a good European for now. The notion of Europe as a superpower isn't without credibility - it has the economic and military potential to act as a significant power but unlike the single entities that are the USA, Russia and China, you have a motley collection of states more akin to pre-Roman Britain but nothing unifies like a common enemy (or enemies).
Is this the day we finally see the coming of "Europe", not as Monnet or Adenauer might have conceived but something rather different? The lesson of the incredibly successful NATO shouldn't be lost on any new European Security Organisation - it's not about rigid conformity or political unity - indeed, the diversity of Europe could and should be the source of its strength. If NATO is redundant then so is the EU perhaps.
I am not sure using the Roman conquest and the enslavement of much of the population of lowland Britain whilst massacring those living on the fringes is 'exactly' the comparison Pro-Europeans should be looking for.
It may be Starmer's appeasement of Trump and offer of a state visit will win back a few voters lost to Reform but voters concerned about Trump and Farage's closeness to him in particular likely go LD or Green not Labour. So they the LDs and Greens could be the biggest winners
The Conservatives will clearly be the net beneficiaries because they refused to kiss Trump's ring. Oh wait...
Kemi didn't last week, indeed Starmer was the one who offered him is second visit and Farage has always been closer to Trump.
I think you are right. Jenrick has had a fantastic week, Kemi has had a great week*, Davey has had a good week. The SNP have had a good week. Starmer finishes more or less where he started (perhaps down a little) and Farage has had a shocker, not least because he has gone AWOL.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
Was the big clue him actually being called Kurt?
Or is he just vile?
Haha, no, I get the reference, but no, he's a nice fella. Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one. He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
Here's Bill Gates' 2023 defense of PEPFAR: "In January 2000, a grim cover story in Newsweek forecast that as many as 30 million African children could be orphaned by 2010 because of AIDS deaths. Demographers predicted that AIDS would kill half the teenagers in some African countries.
That horrific outcome never happened. Millions of Africans finally got access to affordable AIDS drugs, thanks in large part to the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The ambitious initiative, launched by President George W. Bush, celebrates its 20th anniversary this weekend." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/28/pepfar-aids-congress-reauthorize/ (I would have given Condoleezza Rice some credit, too.)
An obvious point that, unfortunately, needs to be repeated from time to time: A person, or regime, may not be entirely admirable and still do good things from time to time. For example: The Soviet Union and the United States helped end smallpox in the world, though it would be hard to find someone who did not criticize one of those nations, and many who would criticize both. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#History
Similarly, it is entirely possible to find things to criticize about Bill Gates, without concluding that everything he does is evil. (My own view is that, in recent years, almost all of his charitable work has been good for humanity, intelligently.)
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
So the summit plan is " Europe to rearm asap. Ukraine to go back to the US and sign the deal. US gives security guarantee.
To me it seems a good plan, albeit fragile. Not sure there's much choice.
At the Beginning of the film "The Battle of Britain", Sir David Kelly dismissed the German "peace" overture as follows: "Don't threaten or dictate to us until you're marching up Whitehall ... and even then we won't listen"
Ukraine is not going to surrender whether Trump wills it or not.
Trump overestimates the weakness of the Putin regime and the strength of the Trump regime.
Today learned from my Nigerian friend that Maga means "fool" in Yoruba.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
Yes, for these people to still pretend they're not fully on-board supporters of the Russian state is just an insult to everyone's intelligence.
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
It does however limit their ability to win an election as the centre will not go for them. I would say it caps their support which is very bad for the Tories and probably slightly better for Labour.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
Indeed, given Reform voters preferred Trump to Harris 54% to 26% and less than 50% of Reform voters have a favourable view of Zelensky it won't be fatal. Albeit it might see a bit of leakage back from Reform to Labour and the Tories
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way.
Not in a good way. Or at least not when I used to live and travel in the region. Then I put it down to the Japanese not having come to terms with losing, nor thinking they had done anything wrong in the war which, as you will know being a frequent visitor to China, is what accounts for the at times visceral hatred of the Japanese by the Chinese.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
I) he was in Manchester Ii) he was called "Kurt" Iii) he said he posted on PB
What's worrying me is how he knew you were Cookie? Do you look like a Jaffa Cake IRL? Suddenly things begin to add up...
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
F*** off Mandy! What is wrong with these people?
Rutte was feeding us the same old bollocks last night.
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
What it will do is stop further Con to Reform switchers in my humble opinion.
Based on the Tory WhatsApp groups I'm there's a definite vibe shift against Trump and anyone trying to defend that disgrace on Friday.
Somebody compared Trump to Corbyn and Farage is his enabler.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I had a Japanese girlfriend for a while. I used to think that the Japanese were aliens. Proper, world-apart aliens.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
F*** off Mandy! What is wrong with these people?
Rutte was feeding us the same old bollocks last night.
Yeah what do they know.
Come to PB for a realistic plan of what should happen next.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
Indeed, given Reform voters preferred Trump to Harris 54% to 26% and less than 50% of Reform voters have a favourable view of Zelensky it won't be fatal. Albeit it might see a bit of leakage back from Reform to Labour and the Tories
This point needs to be rammed home because if Reform's polling doesn't decline in the coming weeks it will be spun by the pro-Putin supporters on here as evidence of the British public's being in favour of Putin and Trump. They mustn't be allowed to get away with that.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I had a Japanese girlfriend for a while. I used to think that the Japanese were aliens. Proper, world-apart aliens.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
Do we know if there are any polls coming out soon with post-ambush fieldwork?
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
I doubt Reform will be particularly hit by this. I cant see the sort of person who would opt for Reform in an opinion poll suddenly not opting for them just because of a bit of Trump/Vance idiocy. Having said that, I visited some right-wing relatives last weekend and they were incandescent about Trump's behaviour over Ukraine. Nevertheless, Reform should be fairly well shielded all the while Nigel is still in control.
What it will do is stop further Con to Reform switchers in my humble opinion.
Based on the Tory WhatsApp groups I'm there's a definite vibe shift against Trump and anyone trying to defend that disgrace on Friday.
Somebody compared Trump to Corbyn and Farage is his enabler.
Yes, I think Nigel has passed his noon, but will probably remain an influential figure for some time yet.
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
F*** off Mandy! What is wrong with these people?
Rutte was feeding us the same old bollocks last night.
The Blairites really need to start dying off. Politics has changed in the past thirty years and all their reflexes are wrong now. When world war 2 kicked off the incoming big American general told the older generals etc to resign as their experience would be counterproductive. Starmer should do that too.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
That means Putin walks away with a clear win he can sell to his people and means a further war either i Ukraine or the Baltic States is all the more likely a few years down the line. When he will not make the mistake of trusting his military commanders a second time.
In short. We lose and a second war becomes inevitable.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
Yep. The problem is that for some completely incomprehensible reason Patel is Shadow Foreign secretary. She is a disgrace.
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
F*** off Mandy! What is wrong with these people?
Rutte was feeding us the same old bollocks last night.
Yeah what do they know.
Come to PB for a realistic plan of what should happen next.
Sounds like Mandy and Boris Johnson are on the same page - try to keep the Americans somewhat onside for Ukraine, rather than an instant end to all aid.
The questions are whether that will work or be worth it.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
Was the big clue him actually being called Kurt?
Or is he just vile?
Haha, no, I get the reference, but no, he's a nice fella. Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one. He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
Poirot wouldn't be ashamed of that piece of deduction.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way.
Not in a good way. Or at least not when I used to live and travel in the region. Then I put it down to the Japanese not having come to terms with losing, nor thinking they had done anything wrong in the war which, as you will know being a frequent visitor to China, is what accounts for the at times visceral hatred of the Japanese by the Chinese.
Really?! That surprises me. You’re an intelligent man of the world - the Japanese are brilliantly friendly and welcoming - their culture is amazing - the food omg - there is zero crime and they don’t fuck about with migration - they do everything differently and often superbly
That said their imperial history is appalling. Which is - as you note - why they are hated around the region. From Korea to the Philippines to China
But in my experience the Japanese are sincerely guilty about this - almost to a fault. A bit like the Germans
Japan might be my favourite single destination on Earth. Certainly up there
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I was told by a Japanese friend not at all approvingly the Chinese are really Americans - brash and direct.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Russia have incorporated four Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea into the Russian Federation. That is the bare minimum they will accept. From memory that's about 25-30% of 2013 Ukraine. They want about another 30%, leaving a landlocked rump Ukraine at about 30-40% of its 2013 area. Ukraine have no leverage other than to keep fighting.
I mean I've only seen the highlights but surely Trump is simply taking a side in one of the oldest and most difficult dilemmas. What is worth giving up to stop the killing.
Why is dealing with that impossible question so reprehensible.
We see it in aid all the time (enable/support the tyrants to get food to the citizens..)
Yes, he’s decided that giving up Ukraine is worth it to stem the expense to the US. The democratically elected government of Ukraine - along with the opposition, judging by their public comments yesterday, disagree.
Chuck into the mix Europe’s future security, which the US has apparently decided is no longer a matter for them, then a polite no thanks is in order. No skin in the game, no say.
All that, of course, is predicated on Europe getting its shit together over the next few days and weeks.
I would like to see Europe get its shit together in the next 24 hours.
The billions the UK promised yesterday are a good start.
Lets show the Americans we can help defeat Russia with or without them - but if its without them, they don't get a say in what happens afterwards.
What jobs will guarantee exemption from being called up to fight in this proposed EU war against Russia? I'll get my lads writing their job applications out ASAP.
Who said anything about the EU? Or war with Russia?
Russia is a small country, it is smaller than Italy economically. It is not some mighty bear that we should be afraid of.
Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our backing, we have no reason or need to go to war, just continue to support Ukraine.
Do you think what is happening now (what you want to continue with) is going to allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Eventually, yes.
And that is a legitimate view, if misguided in my mind. It means thousands more deaths of people that are not you or your family but so be it. Trump's is that he wants the killing to stop. With all the compromises that involves. Why is that view so reprehensible.
Trump doesn't want the killing to stop. He wants Ukraine to surrender, after which hundreds of thousands will be killed by Russia. Stopping the war doesn't bring peace, it enables genocide.
I think this probably needs a bit of an accompanying explainer?
Not for anyone who has been paying attention for the last decade
Well given that you seem to think that's what you've been doing, perhaps you will favour us with an explanation of how demographically challenged Russia, having achieved all its territorial ambitions, is going to slaughter 200,000+ innocents.
Historically, conquering armies have had little trouble in massacring civilians.
In Ukraine, we have detailed, criminal case grade evidence of murders, expulsions and kidnapping of children in the areas occupied by Russia. En masse.9
In addition, the original plans for the Russian invasion were captured. They included mass arrests of the political and intellectual classes, as part of a plan to eliminate the idea of Ukraine as a separate state to Russia, culturally.
So you need to explain why you think that the Russians would behave differently in any areas of the Ukraine they conquer from now, to the way they behaved (and planned to behave) in those they have conquered.
I can well believe that they plan to do all those horrible things. But none of them amount to killing hundreds of thousands, or anything like. That's why I asked for an explanation, and why I wasn't surprised not to get one.
May be we can work to the internationally accepted definition of “genocide” rather than the pretendy straw man made up by a Russian sympathising conspiracy theorist such as yourself?
Maybe you could actually READ you daft fuckwit - I was asking for John Lilburne's explanation of his supposition that hundreds of thousands would be killed if Ukraine surrendered. Genocide wasn't mentioned.
It was in the other post line to which you originally replied on. But of course truth doesn’t matter to you. Just your master’s bidding.
This conversation is showing you up to be a complete loon. I questioned a claim that Putin would slaughter hundreds of thousands post-"surrender". Now I am apparently twisting the meaning of genocide by using the frames of reference given in the original post?
As for 'my master's bidding' - I don't have a master, and that allows me to speak as I find. Perhaps you should think about who has benefitted you, and how that has informed your own viewpoint, because your above post reads like classic projection to me.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Worth noting, as George Robertson remarked, Putin is far more frightened by Ukraine joining the EU, than joining NATO. The EU will turn Ukraine into a fully-fledged Western state. NATO is "just" a military alliance, which is currently looking pretty creaky.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
Was the big clue him actually being called Kurt?
Or is he just vile?
Haha, no, I get the reference, but no, he's a nice fella. Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one. He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
Two people off here have found me on Facebook but I have not yet been accosted on the street. It can't be that hard to do because the two that did it are both fucking idiots.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Russia have incorporated four Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea into the Russian Federation. That is the bare minimum they will accept. From memory that's about 25-30% of 2013 Ukraine. They want about another 30%, leaving a landlocked rump Ukraine at about 30-40% of its 2013 area. Ukraine have no leverage other than to keep fighting.
They can now destroy the remains of Russia's hydrocarbons industry in less than 4 months. The more they take out, the more concentrated their fire on what remains. It is already down to 80-85% capacity. It really will not take much more to break Putin's economy.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I was told by a Japanese friend not at all approvingly the Chinese are really Americans - brash and direct.
That’s quite accurate. But then the Japanese are probably the most unbrash and indirect people on earth - unless they are drunk
I love both places. China and Japan. The Italy and England of Asia but entirely different and that analogy makes no sense because where are the French?
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I had a Japanese girlfriend for a while. I used to think that the Japanese were aliens. Proper, world-apart aliens.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
Yep. The problem is that for some completely incomprehensible reason Patel is Shadow Foreign secretary. She is a disgrace.
She seems to be a mate of Farage's. Wasnt there film of her partying with him
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I had a Japanese girlfriend for a while. I used to think that the Japanese were aliens. Proper, world-apart aliens.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
Fair point.
Did you raise her the whole hunting whales thing?
Not the same thing. To a Japanese hunting foxes is presumably like huinting and killing your local elf. Maybe Winnie-the-Pooh is the more correct equivalent.
Putin, on the verge of defeat, is desperate for a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild. Trump is his useful idiot. Vance has insinuated himself into Trump's good books, in spite of proclaiming that Trump is a potential Hitler. Vance, knowing what it is happening, deliberately sabotages the key meeting and delays a ceasefire. The big reveal is that Vance is the good guy!
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
Yep. The problem is that for some completely incomprehensible reason Patel is Shadow Foreign secretary. She is a disgrace.
She seems to be a mate of Farage's. Wasnt there film of her partying with him
Yes, she was all over Farage during a drunken karaoke event at a Tory party conference. All pretty nauseating stuff.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I was told by a Japanese friend not at all approvingly the Chinese are really Americans - brash and direct.
That’s quite accurate. But then the Japanese are probably the most unbrash and indirect people on earth - unless they are drunk
I love both places. China and Japan. The Italy and England of Asia but entirely different and that analogy makes no sense because where are the French?
Korea? Pretty brash lot in my experience - honorary Parisians?
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
That means Putin walks away with a clear win he can sell to his people and means a further war either i Ukraine or the Baltic States is all the more likely a few years down the line. When he will not make the mistake of trusting his military commanders a second time.
In short. We lose and a second war becomes inevitable.
Not necessarily. Ukraine hopefully will be a successful and secure country, which for the first time will be out of reach of Russia. Russia inherits a desert of its own making. What will Ukraine want do with this (Bakhmut)? So give it to the Russians as their "victory" !
Putin, on the verge of defeat, is desperate for a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild. Trump is his useful idiot. Vance has insinuated himself into Trump's good books, in spite of proclaiming that Trump is a potential Hitler. Vance, knowing what it is happening, deliberately sabotages the key meeting and delays a ceasefire. The big reveal is that Vance is the good guy!
I like that a lot, though I feel Vance is more a Walter White kind of character who started off sympathetic, reacted to his situations and got deeper and deeper into it, and Friday was the Ozymandias moment.
They can now destroy the remains of Russia's hydrocarbons industry in less than 4 months. The more they take out, the more concentrated their fire on what remains. It is already down to 80-85% capacity. It really will not take much more to break Putin's economy.
Yes. Zelensky seems pretty confident Ukraine can hurt Russia badly enough to force a peace, even without US help. If Europe keeps up the money supply Ukraine is just going to continue hammering Russia's oil infrastructure, you can't exactly hide a refinery and drones are cheap when you're building thousands of them.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Russia have incorporated four Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea into the Russian Federation. That is the bare minimum they will accept. From memory that's about 25-30% of 2013 Ukraine. They want about another 30%, leaving a landlocked rump Ukraine at about 30-40% of its 2013 area. Ukraine have no leverage other than to keep fighting.
Probably true for now but at some point the Ukrainians and Russians will need to come to an agreement to stop the fighting. So this is really about setting the likely parameters of that agreement.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Worth noting, as George Robertson remarked, Putin is far more frightened by Ukraine joining the EU, than joining NATO. The EU will turn Ukraine into a fully-fledged Western state. NATO is "just" a military alliance, which is currently looking pretty creaky.
Presumably Putin has been working on getting EU blocking votes beyond Orban's Hungary. Hence the attempt to roll over Romania? Getting approval for Ukraine's EU membership is going to get some serious blocking I expect. But if Putin wants Kursk back...
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I had a Japanese girlfriend for a while. I used to think that the Japanese were aliens. Proper, world-apart aliens.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
Fair point.
Did you raise her the whole hunting whales thing?
Not the same thing. To a Japanese hunting foxes is presumably like huinting and killing your local elf. Maybe Winnie-the-Pooh is the more correct equivalent.
Well, we're very sympathetic to their Godzilla issues, at least.
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
I was told by a Japanese friend not at all approvingly the Chinese are really Americans - brash and direct.
That’s quite accurate. But then the Japanese are probably the most unbrash and indirect people on earth - unless they are drunk
I love both places. China and Japan. The Italy and England of Asia but entirely different and that analogy makes no sense because where are the French?
Korea? Pretty brash lot in my experience - honorary Parisians?
The travel cliche is that the Koreans are the “Irish of Asia”
But it’s bollocks. As a culture Korea is a lot more distinct and complex and ancient and peculiar - the analogy seems to stem from the fact the Koreans quite like a fight after a few beers
Korea is like an early iteration of Japan. The basics are there but the Japanese added their unique impeccable perversely perfectionist sheen to it all
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
Yep. The problem is that for some completely incomprehensible reason Patel is Shadow Foreign secretary. She is a disgrace.
One doesn't even have to believe it, probably Jenrick doesn't, but pragmatism means it needs saying. From Patel's perspective it can be couched in terms of; "Trump is the greatest President in history, but on this occasion I feel he may be misreading the evidence over Ukraine a little". No that wouldn't work would it? Just call a spade a shovel.
I see Priti Patel has been embarrassing herself on GB news today. Saying Trump's 'frustrations' with Zelensky were understandable. Shameful comments. And undermines what Badenoch was trying to do.
To be fair to Jenrick he absolutely smashed it out of the park. I would be personally sceptical of his motives, but a win is a win.
Yep. The problem is that for some completely incomprehensible reason Patel is Shadow Foreign secretary. She is a disgrace.
She seems to be a mate of Farage's. Wasnt there film of her partying with him
Yes, she was all over Farage during a drunken karaoke event at a Tory party conference. All pretty nauseating stuff.
I can understand why Kemi put her in the shadow cabinet. Unity and all that. But she's outlived her usefulness for sure. I don't think Priti and Suella departing for Reform would do much harm tbh esp if they go now.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
Worth noting, as George Robertson remarked, Putin is far more frightened by Ukraine joining the EU, than joining NATO. The EU will turn Ukraine into a fully-fledged Western state. NATO is "just" a military alliance, which is currently looking pretty creaky.
Presumably Putin has been working on getting EU blocking votes beyond Orban's Hungary. Hence the attempt to roll over Romania? Getting approval for Ukraine's EU membership is going to get some serious blocking I expect. But if Putin wants Kursk back...
When Kursk region voters get a taste of free movement, CAP and the European Social Fund they won't want to go back, they'd be mad to want to leave.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
Was the big clue him actually being called Kurt?
Or is he just vile?
Haha, no, I get the reference, but no, he's a nice fella. Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one. He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
Poirot wouldn't be ashamed of that piece of deduction.
I feel more like some slightly pitiable character by Alan Bennett taking a slightly obsessive interest in the characters passing his house, to be honest. But thank you.
For a hostile superpower the Chinese are very friendly
Your first time to China? Amazing country. I spent 3 months of my gap year there back in 2011, met my wife there while she was on her gap year (though we didn't get together properly until 2013 when she came to London to do her masters degree). It's probably one of the best countries I've ever travelled in, amazing natural wonders, incredible food wherever you go and the people are very friendly despite few to none speaking English they're always happy to help.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
That means Putin walks away with a clear win he can sell to his people and means a further war either i Ukraine or the Baltic States is all the more likely a few years down the line. When he will not make the mistake of trusting his military commanders a second time.
In short. We lose and a second war becomes inevitable.
Not necessarily. Ukraine hopefully will be a successful and secure country, which for the first time will be out of reach of Russia. Russia inherits a desert of its own making. What will Ukraine want do with this (Bakhmut)? So give it to the Russians as their "victory" !
The problem with the sort of view you state above is that it ignores Putin's stated objectives. He wants (at least) eastern Europe under his control. In the short term, he wants all of Ukraine's eastern provinces - including territory his military does not hold - and the entirety of Ukraine's Black Sea coast.
So a big question is this: why would giving Putin this 'victory' cause him to scale back his ambitions and desires? Or would a 'victory' cause him to want more, and to be able to sell it to the Russian public and oligarchs?
Whenever I come to China I am always reminded how insanely weird the Japanese are
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way.
Not in a good way. Or at least not when I used to live and travel in the region. Then I put it down to the Japanese not having come to terms with losing, nor thinking they had done anything wrong in the war which, as you will know being a frequent visitor to China, is what accounts for the at times visceral hatred of the Japanese by the Chinese.
Really?! That surprises me. You’re an intelligent man of the world - the Japanese are brilliantly friendly and welcoming - their culture is amazing - the food omg - there is zero crime and they don’t fuck about with migration - they do everything differently and often superbly
That said their imperial history is appalling. Which is - as you note - why they are hated around the region. From Korea to the Philippines to China
But in my experience the Japanese are sincerely guilty about this - almost to a fault. A bit like the Germans
Japan might be my favourite single destination on Earth. Certainly up there
Many, many of them are super friendly and welcoming but there is, or was, to me a sinister undercurrent. I don't think I ever thought anyone was actually guilty or sorry for about what they did in the war. Certainly and to illustrated the stark difference, nowhere near the German what I believe is sincere and profound regret and guilt.
This view is hardly controversial among those familiar with the region.
I suppose you having to rely on everything second hand language-wise in the region, and coming fresh faced to it all might account for your restricted understanding.
Off thread, but I have just bumped into fellow pb-er @ManchesterKurt . Feeling quite pleased with myself for working out who he is in real life from a handful of clues on here.
Was the big clue him actually being called Kurt?
Or is he just vile?
Haha, no, I get the reference, but no, he's a nice fella. Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one. He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
Two people off here have found me on Facebook but I have not yet been accosted on the street. It can't be that hard to do because the two that did it are both fucking idiots.
Why would they even be interested, unless they plan to case your joint to stroke your expensive motors? Anonymity is important. I wouldn't want anyone I know reading the old shite I post and be able to attribute guilt in the real world.
I don't understand the European Ukraine play. It seems that Russia will only end the war if they can claim a victory (the Donbas at a minimum, presumably) and that Ukraine will only end the war if they are defeated (or, a negotiated peace with cast iron Western-backed security guarantees - boots on the ground presumably via NATO or another structure).
Therefore what are we playing at? It seems like the options are simple:
Let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Help Ukraine push Russia out of their borders.
Tell Russia that if they don't accept a negotiated settlement (probably less than the whole Donbas with western bases in Ukraine) then Europe/UK will use all their military might to achieve the above.
What else is there, realistically?
Option 3 is the game plan
Back to the 2021 borders (I’d prefer 2014 personally but that’s the compromise).
Kursk thrown in for free unless Russia plays silly buggers and then it’s Kursk for something
My thoughts.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
That means Putin walks away with a clear win he can sell to his people and means a further war either i Ukraine or the Baltic States is all the more likely a few years down the line. When he will not make the mistake of trusting his military commanders a second time.
In short. We lose and a second war becomes inevitable.
Not necessarily. Ukraine hopefully will be a successful and secure country, which for the first time will be out of reach of Russia. Russia inherits a desert of its own making. What will Ukraine want do with this (Bakhmut)? So give it to the Russians as their "victory" !
It's difficult to know what Putin might actually want. The thing that he's dead set against though is whatever's left of Ukraine being part of NATO, and that's precisely what Ukraine would want if they turned over any big portion of their territory. So it doesn't seem that there's likely any path forwards.
Starmer and Macron might be better off having a chat with Xi than Trump. (Impossible of course, although if Xi actually invited them..)
Comments
Polish PM Donald Tusk, speaking before his flight to London for the European Ukraine summit:
“500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3yqwd1kkko
As a complete aside, the cheapest flights from London to Auckland are those which transit through Shanghai Pudong. The six hour layover is a bit of a pain but it may be worth considering especially if the airport has @Leon's approval though presumably one of the two lounges has his name on it.
Back to less serious matters and the gathering of the great and good at Lancaster House looks impressive but I go back to where I started yesterday morning - what does a "peace deal" look like on the ground? Would Putin accept European peacekeepers on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk? I suspect not.
Is this a step on the road to a more "united" Europe? Certainly, recent events have forced the Europeans together and even Meloni seems willing to be seen as a good European for now. The notion of Europe as a superpower isn't without credibility - it has the economic and military potential to act as a significant power but unlike the single entities that are the USA, Russia and China, you have a motley collection of states more akin to pre-Roman Britain but nothing unifies like a common enemy (or enemies).
Is this the day we finally see the coming of "Europe", not as Monnet or Adenauer might have conceived but something rather different? The lesson of the incredibly successful NATO shouldn't be lost on any new European Security Organisation - it's not about rigid conformity or political unity - indeed, the diversity of Europe could and should be the source of its strength. If NATO is redundant then so is the EU perhaps.
There is value from having quality programming, including news, in the UK which can justifiably be funded through by the taxpayer. But that should be distinct from the purely commercial offerings of the likes of Eastenders for whom a subscription model would be more than adequate.
And it should be setting up as a funding vehicle that would match fund commercial activities, ideally as a soft loan.
Assad supported ISIS
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/4698
Trump threatened to abandon the SDF
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/19/us-troops-syria-withdrawal-trump
The SDF defeated ISIS in Syria:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47678157
New government in Damascus has every reason ISIS is defeated: this is just logical, as they want control over the whole of Syria.
You seem to support Assad, who helped ISIS, refused to fight them while he was doing his best to murder everyone else, and is one of the worst war criminals in the world.
Topiary? Sugar Arts? Stamp collecting?
China is also quite careful to create trade barriers when it wants to.
Or is he just vile?
It's the one part of my gap year that I'm so glad I did, everywhere else seems like I can go back but China is one of those experiences that I don't think I'd ever be able to have again. In an era where smartphones were still not widely used, not much social media, the Chinese were less disposed to dislike foreigners and I really had a sense of being alone in a country of 1.3bn which was pretty scary at times before I got on the backpacker trail.
They won't fuck with Budanov.
Not even Chuck Norris would fuck with Budanov.
I’m due back in a couple of months for a more leisurely visit via Central Asia
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/aktuelle-insa-umfrage-knappe-mehrheit-hofft-auf-zustandekommen-von-schwarz-rot-13299178.html
Twenty
Tops for out
If Reform's polling share survives that then we really do have something interesting on our hands.
There has been a revealing interview this morning on ABC in the US by Lord Mandelson, UK ambassador in Washington - in which he calls on Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal backing to the initiative President Trump is taking” to broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia.
This from Mandelson stood out: “Ukraine should be first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”.
Mandelson also calls on European governments, led by the UK and France, to make a major commitment of their forces to the Ukraine’s land, airspace and sea, as a deterrent to Putin making future incursions, with - he hopes - the US providing the “ultimate” backstop if all were to go to hell (the backstop being American intelligence, air cover and access to its long range missile tech, I understand).
The close ally of Keir Starmer also urges President Zelenskyy to sign the Trump “commercial” deal assigning mineral and energy rights to the US, to give “the US a stake in Ukraine’s future”.
All of this would be a bitter pill for Zelenskyy to swallow, after he was humiliated in the Whitehouse by Trump and Vance. But maybe that is the mark of true courageous leadership
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1896148096075305046
Just saying.
More In Common may be majorly post ambush and potentially that could be entirely post ambush and a similar release timeframe.
* Trumpian Tories except Jenrick, not so good.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Wick/@58.4393336,-3.0939673,3a,45y,257.65h,97.31t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1skfvZXx1c_YRN83DeXsmjVA!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=-7.313826707675972&panoid=kfvZXx1c_YRN83DeXsmjVA&yaw=257.64859021302254!7i16384!8i8192!4m7!3m6!1s0x489ac4d38831bc29:0x2004013192cf4bfd!8m2!3d58.438936!4d-3.093716!10e5!16zL20vMDR0eHQ1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDIyNi4xIKXMDSoJLDEwMjExNDU1SAFQAw==
Chat on here had revealed three key facts about him: he lives near me, he plays golf, and he doesn't have a car. And the number of different pedestrians I see passing my house with golf clubs is exactly one.
He didn't have his clubs with him today, but he was the fella who I see walking past my house with golf clubs. So I chanced a "Kurt?" and he answered.
"In January 2000, a grim cover story in Newsweek forecast that as many as 30 million African children could be orphaned by 2010 because of AIDS deaths. Demographers predicted that AIDS would kill half the teenagers in some African countries.
That horrific outcome never happened. Millions of Africans finally got access to affordable AIDS drugs, thanks in large part to the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The ambitious initiative, launched by President George W. Bush, celebrates its 20th anniversary this weekend."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/28/pepfar-aids-congress-reauthorize/
(I would have given Condoleezza Rice some credit, too.)
An obvious point that, unfortunately, needs to be repeated from time to time: A person, or regime, may not be entirely admirable and still do good things from time to time. For example: The Soviet Union and the United States helped end smallpox in the world, though it would be hard to find someone who did not criticize one of those nations, and many who would criticize both. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#History
Similarly, it is entirely possible to find things to criticize about Bill Gates, without concluding that everything he does is evil. (My own view is that, in recent years, almost all of his charitable work has been good for humanity, intelligently.)
"Don't threaten or dictate to us until you're marching up Whitehall ... and even then we won't listen"
Ukraine is not going to surrender whether Trump wills it or not.
Trump overestimates the weakness of the Putin regime and the strength of the Trump regime.
Today learned from my Nigerian friend that Maga means "fool" in Yoruba.
The Chinese SHOUD be the strange ones. This distant ancient magnificent very foreign culture. And yet somehow they’re not. They’re like a mix of Russians and Turks with incredible infrastructure - they’re rude and friendly, they like a drink, their imperialism is a bit lazy
But the Japanese? The Japanese are just out there. Mad as a box of frog sashimi. Almost a different species. In a good way
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50752-who-did-britons-want-to-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election
https://www.instagram.com/thelondoneconomic/p/DGOPJL6NJLa/?api=马来西亚加央约炮WhatsApp：601167898268全套服务.qehw&img_index=5
Ii) he was called "Kurt"
Iii) he said he posted on PB
What's worrying me is how he knew you were Cookie? Do you look like a Jaffa Cake IRL? Suddenly things begin to add up...
Rutte was feeding us the same old bollocks last night.
Based on the Tory WhatsApp groups I'm there's a definite vibe shift against Trump and anyone trying to defend that disgrace on Friday.
Somebody compared Trump to Corbyn and Farage is his enabler.
Then she'd remind me - we were the aliens that did fox-hunting.
Fair point.
Come to PB for a realistic plan of what should happen next.
Ukraine's red line would be a functional country able to make any alliances it wants with the formal exception of NATO (It's barely functioning anyway) and most importantly able to join the EU. Security provided by a consortium of European countries to defend whatever ceasefire line is agreed.
All POWs, children and others kidnapped to Russia returned. Anyone living in previous Ukraine allowed to move to residual Ukraine.
Russia gets to keep previously acquired territory plus the new Hellscape full of mines and empty of people. ie currently occupied Crimea, Donetsk including Mariupol, and Luhansk.
In the mix occupied Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. For strategic reasons Ukraine will want to control the Crimean isthmus but this could be a sticking point.
In short. We lose and a second war becomes inevitable.
The questions are whether that will work or be worth it.
That said their imperial history is appalling. Which is - as you note - why they are hated around the region. From Korea to the Philippines to China
But in my experience the Japanese are sincerely guilty about this - almost to a fault. A bit like the Germans
Japan might be my favourite single destination on Earth. Certainly up there
As for 'my master's bidding' - I don't have a master, and that allows me to speak as I find. Perhaps you should think about who has benefitted you, and how that has informed your own viewpoint, because your above post reads like classic projection to me.
I love both places. China and Japan. The Italy and England of Asia but entirely different and that analogy makes no sense because where are the French?
Putin, on the verge of defeat, is desperate for a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild.
Trump is his useful idiot.
Vance has insinuated himself into Trump's good books, in spite of proclaiming that Trump is a potential Hitler.
Vance, knowing what it is happening, deliberately sabotages the key meeting and delays a ceasefire.
The big reveal is that Vance is the good guy!
But it’s bollocks. As a culture Korea is a lot more distinct and complex and ancient and peculiar - the analogy seems to stem from the fact the Koreans
quite like a fight after a few beers
Korea is like an early iteration of Japan. The basics are there but the Japanese added their unique impeccable perversely perfectionist sheen to it all
So a big question is this: why would giving Putin this 'victory' cause him to scale back his ambitions and desires? Or would a 'victory' cause him to want more, and to be able to sell it to the Russian public and oligarchs?
This view is hardly controversial among those familiar with the region.
I suppose you having to rely on everything second hand language-wise in the region, and coming fresh faced to it all might account for your restricted understanding.
Starmer and Macron might be better off having a chat with Xi than Trump. (Impossible of course, although if Xi actually invited them..)