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The Wrath of Khan – politicalbetting.com

Thursday's @CityAM front page pic.twitter.com/rdqoHEDpGF
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Indeed I don’t think he will even if he wants to. He would lose to almost anyone
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj48qxd7jq5o
One, ominously, "unaccounted for".
https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1884950898708721850
(is it me or does the grammar need a teensy little bittie attention?)
It's Khan's to win if it wants it. Value is more with Corbyn I'd say at 20/1. 50/1 for Green candidate who got 5.8% just last year, that's a no from me.
It confuses me why Sir Sadiq Khan has come out against a third runway. It’s not like he’s had any concrete political position of anything of substance in the many many years he’s been bedblocking the mayoralty.
Better than ethnic cleansing anyway.
Greenwashed NIMBYism, essentially.
Same kind of reasons the LibDems find to oppose any development. When that opposition has voted in it.
The brand is trashed in London. Perhaps irrevocably.
An independent could thrash Khan if, god forbid, he wants to continue his somnambulent reign.
🟦 Reform UK: 27% (+1)
🔴 Labour: 23% (+1)
🔵 Conservatives: 21% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
🟢 Greens: 10% (-)
Changes from 22nd January
[Find Out Now, 29th January, N=2,487]
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1884969653639770528
And if I had a lovely back garden in Kew I might feel the same way.
I just don’t know why Khan has suddenly decided to take up the fight. His comfort zone is peddling tepidly woke nostra from a lay-by in Plaistow, or wherever “City Hall” is now based.
I’m talking reality. Not what you want or wish to be the case
You guys are all the same
It’s about electoral viability.
He does nothing about the ending of late night licenses premises in central London - because the people who live there want them gone. The people who drink in them, come in from the suburbs, very often. Votes in doing nothing, in that case.
In this case, opposing the third runway secure votes and costs nothing.
We need BIG NIGEL in the 30s and the others on about 22. It’s happening
Please replace it immediately with:
(totally worth my 1 a day)
Survation.
@Survation
New Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 27% (-3)
REF 24% (+4)
CON 22% (-3)
LD 13% (+2)
GRE 8% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
OTH 4% (-)
We are headed for a reform Tory coalition government with the Tories very much in the junior position
Is a 3rd runway at Heathrow in line with our climate and net zero obligations ?
Well err... no. Obviously not.
Mr Justice of the rolls is obv going to side with Khan and his gang of lawyers when this gets before the courts.
https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwwtye4k27
https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwrsjibk27
https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwndangk27
I don’t really trust them.
Our gold standards show Labour still clinging on to the top, with Reform and Tories duking it out three or four points behind.
And if Farage becomes the primary opposition leader and the Conservatives are in the low teens, you'll see the lefty vote consolidate and grow in inner cities. I can see Khan winning another term in that scenario.
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1884969658400260418
Apologies if this has already been discussed to death.
The get the Tories out unwind will go to the stop Farage movement.
'Just 24% of those who do not currently intend to vote Labour would consider doing so, with comparable figures of 29% for the Conservatives and 26% for Reform UK. Strikingly, more than two-thirds of voters say they would not consider voting Labour—a stark finding for a party governing with a 174-seat majority.'
Kemi beats Starmer on doing well as leader (33 to 31...) and not doing well (36 to 55).
Trust on economy, Kemi wins 35 to 32%. Stride beats Reeves 38 to 34%.
Net confidence on economy - Badenoch -10, Farage -16, Starmer & gov - 25%
All to play for, for everyone on these figures.
Find out now:
LLG 44 RefCon 48
LabCon 44 the SPLORG 56(!)
Survation:
LLG 48 RefCon 46
LabCon 49 the SPLORG 51
So find out now is much more positive for Nige and his crew on both measures.
Hopefully see something early next month.
Are you really sure you're closer to reality than anyone advocating a one-state, two-state, or three-state solution?
Would love to know who your gold standard ones are and how they got on at the very last test they had at the 2024 general election?
Find out in four years time, methinks.
No-one will take the Lib Dems seriously after Jo Swinson if they try to pose as a viable government, so that leaves the Tories as the last non-Farage force left standing.
If Labour leaves mayoral elections as FPTP, that may make it easier for a Conservative or independent candidate to win.
But are any of the odds on offer worth it? Probably not. Maybe Garbett at 50/1, as TSE says.
The British people feel utterly betrayed on immigration (and they are right to feel that). Farage is the only guy that’s been honest about it and willing to talk about it
He’s gonna win as things stand. BUT there’s a long way to go of course. We could all be living on Neptune by 2029
I’m tempted to introduce a new stat: the rebel voter ratio (RVR) for each bloc. This compares the vote count for each main party with the votes for its competitors on the same side of the left-right axis. I’ve left out the nationalist parties so this is just based on LLG and RefCon. Arguably this slightly overstates left consolidation as most SNP and Plaid voters are probably left of centre.
On the Survation numbers, for example, LLG has a 27/22 ratio (1.23:1), and RefCon has a 22/24 = 0.92 ratio. That means the right is more split than the left. In find out now it’s 1.1 for the left and 0.78 for the right.
Once a ratio dips under 0.66:1 it then reverses, becoming 1.5:1, because at that stage the vote is consolidating under the challenger party.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/matt-goodwin-pollster-damning-labour-statistic-reform-uk
"Zelenskyy was fighting a much bigger entity, much bigger, much more powerful," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity. "He shouldn’t have done that, because we could have made a deal."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-suggests-ukraine-not-fought-back-russia-rcna189071
Labour voters only represent 20% of ScotForm support at the moment, compared with 40% from their own '24 voters, 16% new voters, and 24% from the other parties.
The point of inflexion when the LDs with 100+ MPs on 12% of the vote drop support for PR is approaching
https://x.com/basil_tgmd/status/1884946480244412416
➡️ January 20: FAA director fired
➡️ January 21: Air Traffic Controller hiring frozen
➡️ January 22: Aviation Safety Advisory Committee disbanded
➡️ January 28: Buyout/retirement demand sent to existing employees
➡️ January 29: First American mid-air collision in 16 years
Making America Great Again!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpdx2wqpg7zo
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.
The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.
But are the 2025 local elections going to be relatively dull? (Maybe Reform UK could do well in the Doncaster mayoral?)