Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Wrath of Khan – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,818
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    No odds for Ed Davey? if he stood, I am sure he would do better than any previous LD candidate for Mayor.

    He's got bigger fish to fry, he could be leading the second largest party/going into coalition with Labour after the next election.
    Is that Reform first, Lib Dems second?
    No.
    How do you end up with the Lib Dems second then?
    First past the post.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwwtye4k27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwrsjibk27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwndangk27
    You need to account for the unwinding of the "get the Tories out" tactical voters. The Lib Dems won't be anywhere near in most of these target seats.
    A heroic assumption on your part.

    The get the Tories out unwind will go to the stop Farage movement.
    Nah
    The “stop Farage” coalition is why I think a second Labour term is the most probable outcome at present.
    Farage is more popular and less unpopular than you realise. He is no longer the fringe UKIPPER

    The British people feel utterly betrayed on immigration (and they are right to feel that). Farage is the only guy that’s been honest about it and willing to talk about it

    He’s gonna win as things stand. BUT there’s a long way to go of course. We could all be living on Neptune by 2029
    A couple of things, Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum is going to get plastered all over the airwaves during a campaign.
    Just to remind traditional constitutionalist rule of law people that he is, while usually wrong, sometimes right?
    At present, Farage has better ratings than Starmer. If that remains the case in 2028/29, the stop Starmer vote will be bigger than the stop Farage vote.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,814
    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,818

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Those all important bloc scores on the doors:

    Find out now:

    LLG 44 RefCon 48
    LabCon 44 the SPLORG 56(!)

    Survation:

    LLG 48 RefCon 46
    LabCon 49 the SPLORG 51

    So find out now is much more positive for Nige and his crew on both measures.

    Lab/Con 44% looks like a new low for recent times, though I don't know if FON is a proper pollster. Lab/Con on 4th July was 59%. At GE 2017 it was 82%. This is truly change making if anywhere close to correct.
    We need a real election to see how this actually plays out. The London Mayoral election would be an interesting case study were it sooner! You can see Lab, Con, LD, Ref and Green all potentially doing well (or badly), and an independent could make a splash.

    But are the 2025 local elections going to be relatively dull? (Maybe Reform UK could do well in the Doncaster mayoral?)
    It's looking like there will not be much in the way of local elections before 2026.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,178
    Taz said:

    I'm sorry, that picture in the body of the article is wrong.

    Please replace it immediately with:



    (totally worth my 1 a day)

    Yay, somebody spotted my subtle Star Trek reference.
    Ahem, I'd refer you to my post at 2.34 PM !!!!!
    It's a generation thing. I thought it was a subtle reference to the opening lines of the Iliad. I should get out more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397

    Obviously betting this far out is nuts.

    It confuses me why Sir Sadiq Khan has come out against a third runway. It’s not like he’s had any concrete political position of anything of substance in the many many years he’s been bedblocking the mayoralty.

    More people in West London are opposed to a third runway than are in favour.

    Greenwashed NIMBYism, essentially.

    Same kind of reasons the LibDems find to oppose any development. When that opposition has voted in it.
    I’m completely aware of that.
    And if I had a lovely back garden in Kew I might feel the same way.

    I just don’t know why Khan has suddenly decided to take up the fight. His comfort zone is peddling tepidly woke nostra from a lay-by in Plaistow, or wherever “City Hall” is now based.
    Ah. Nice memory of Plaistow.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,818

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    I think he's the least successful barrister since Tony "Did Magna Carta Die in Vain" Hancock.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,667

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    No odds for Ed Davey? if he stood, I am sure he would do better than any previous LD candidate for Mayor.

    He's got bigger fish to fry, he could be leading the second largest party/going into coalition with Labour after the next election.
    Is that Reform first, Lib Dems second?
    No.
    How do you end up with the Lib Dems second then?
    First past the post.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwwtye4k27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwrsjibk27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwndangk27
    You need to account for the unwinding of the "get the Tories out" tactical voters. The Lib Dems won't be anywhere near in most of these target seats.
    A heroic assumption on your part.

    The get the Tories out unwind will go to the stop Farage movement.
    Nah
    The “stop Farage” coalition is why I think a second Labour term is the most probable outcome at present.
    Farage is more popular and less unpopular than you realise. He is no longer the fringe UKIPPER

    The British people feel utterly betrayed on immigration (and they are right to feel that). Farage is the only guy that’s been honest about it and willing to talk about it

    He’s gonna win as things stand. BUT there’s a long way to go of course. We could all be living on Neptune by 2029
    A couple of things, Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum is going to get plastered all over the airwaves during a campaign.
    Because his opponents are stupid enough to undermine their own fearmongering by presenting him as being a moderate who thinks we should take responsibility for our own citizens?
    Fuck me WIlliam, Farage could soil himself on live TV and you'd be spinning it as a positive for him.
    Metaphorically speaking he has done that, and on many, many occasions.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
  • No odds for Ed Davey? if he stood, I am sure he would do better than any previous LD candidate for Mayor.

    He's got bigger fish to fry, he could be leading the second largest party/going into coalition with Labour after the next election.
    Is that Reform first, Lib Dems second?
    No.
    How do you end up with the Lib Dems second then?
    First past the post.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwwtye4k27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwrsjibk27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwndangk27
    You need to account for the unwinding of the "get the Tories out" tactical voters. The Lib Dems won't be anywhere near in most of these target seats.
    A heroic assumption on your part.

    The get the Tories out unwind will go to the stop Farage movement.
    Indeed. I've never voted for the Conservatives and have often voted tactically against them. But if it looks like there is any chance of Reform taking my Conservative constituency, I'll be voting Tory. In the end it's various flavours of (more or less) realists vs dangerous fantasists. I'm guessing I'm not the only one who sees it like this.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    Barnesian said:

    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

    If the seat predictor isn't broken by this new 4-5 party world. Which it probably is.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,159

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Those all important bloc scores on the doors:

    Find out now:

    LLG 44 RefCon 48
    LabCon 44 the SPLORG 56(!)

    Survation:

    LLG 48 RefCon 46
    LabCon 49 the SPLORG 51

    So find out now is much more positive for Nige and his crew on both measures.

    Lab/Con 44% looks like a new low for recent times, though I don't know if FON is a proper pollster. Lab/Con on 4th July was 59%. At GE 2017 it was 82%. This is truly change making if anywhere close to correct.
    We need a real election to see how this actually plays out. The London Mayoral election would be an interesting case study were it sooner! You can see Lab, Con, LD, Ref and Green all potentially doing well (or badly), and an independent could make a splash.

    But are the 2025 local elections going to be relatively dull? (Maybe Reform UK could do well in the Doncaster mayoral?)
    If the polls are right then it's realistic to look for Ref second in both Doncaster and the North Tyneside Mayoralties. A lot of the turnout for those elections will likely be voting on party hieroglyph alone.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Those all important bloc scores on the doors:

    Find out now:

    LLG 44 RefCon 48
    LabCon 44 the SPLORG 56(!)

    Survation:

    LLG 48 RefCon 46
    LabCon 49 the SPLORG 51

    So find out now is much more positive for Nige and his crew on both measures.

    Lab/Con 44% looks like a new low for recent times, though I don't know if FON is a proper pollster. Lab/Con on 4th July was 59%. At GE 2017 it was 82%. This is truly change making if anywhere close to correct.
    We need a real election to see how this actually plays out. The London Mayoral election would be an interesting case study were it sooner! You can see Lab, Con, LD, Ref and Green all potentially doing well (or badly), and an independent could make a splash.

    But are the 2025 local elections going to be relatively dull? (Maybe Reform UK could do well in the Doncaster mayoral?)
    It's looking like there will not be much in the way of local elections before 2026.
    Nearly all the county council elections could go. We'll get some unitary authority elections. (Can the Tories regain IoW? What happens in County Durham?) There will be 4 combined authority mayors being election (2 currently Labour, 2 new positions). (The West of England election could be interesting with a 3-way (Lab, Con, Green) or even 4-way (add LD) fight. Andrea Jenkyns is standing for Reform UK in the Greater Lincolnshire contest.) Not a lot, but there'll be something.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,010
    Eabhal said:

    Khan can't in good conscience support a third runway after a long difficult campaign for ULEZ, which has overwhelming support in the Labour supporting bits of London.

    And if Farage becomes the primary opposition leader and the Conservatives are in the low teens, you'll see the lefty vote consolidate and grow in inner cities. I can see Khan winning another term in that scenario.

    How much of a problem is aircraft pollution? Hyudrocarbons, NOx, etc.?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,365
    edited January 30

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,159
    edited January 30

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,045
    edited January 30

    TimS said:

    No odds for Ed Davey? if he stood, I am sure he would do better than any previous LD candidate for Mayor.

    Simon Hughes' 15.3% in 2004 was the previous best LD performance.
    LD’s best chance would be with a celeb, but they are too far off the pace to ever be in contention, particularly now it’s FPTP.
    FPTP might make it easier to win if the vote is as split as current polling is. The 2028 winner (if still under FPTP) will probably win with under 40% of the vote. They could win with under 30% of the vote.
    Under 40%?

    Labour only just topped 40% in May.

    It's entirely possible that Labour's vote is in the 20s, with an Islamist party taking votes in East London, the Greens hoovering up the student and yoof vote, and the LDs picking up former Labour voters in the prosperous West who are horrified by Heathrow expansion.

    At the same time, we could see the Conservative vote fracture with Reform picking up a large chunk of Susan Hall's vote.

    In that scenario, I could easily see something like:

    Labour 28
    Reform 22
    Conservative 20
    Green 14
    LD 8

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 716
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Khan can't in good conscience support a third runway after a long difficult campaign for ULEZ, which has overwhelming support in the Labour supporting bits of London.

    And if Farage becomes the primary opposition leader and the Conservatives are in the low teens, you'll see the lefty vote consolidate and grow in inner cities. I can see Khan winning another term in that scenario.

    How much of a problem is aircraft pollution? Hyudrocarbons, NOx, etc.?
    The dubious case for the 3rd runway is that it will reduce stacking and reduce pollution.
    Think the criticism of Reeves, that she's just accepted several hobbyhorses at face value, could be justified here.
    Listening to Howard Davies argue that it is popular in Aberdeen and Inverness because it will improve their connectivity to London made me wince.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,010
    Foss said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
    If you look at the THunderbirds episode about the Fireflash airliner's maiden flight, it's going on the rim of a huge "concrete" wheel which is spinning. Even better idea IMV.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kvk_ROpD1NA
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,667

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    No odds for Ed Davey? if he stood, I am sure he would do better than any previous LD candidate for Mayor.

    He's got bigger fish to fry, he could be leading the second largest party/going into coalition with Labour after the next election.
    Is that Reform first, Lib Dems second?
    No.
    How do you end up with the Lib Dems second then?
    First past the post.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwwtye4k27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwrsjibk27

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lgnwndangk27
    You need to account for the unwinding of the "get the Tories out" tactical voters. The Lib Dems won't be anywhere near in most of these target seats.
    A heroic assumption on your part.

    The get the Tories out unwind will go to the stop Farage movement.
    Nah
    The “stop Farage” coalition is why I think a second Labour term is the most probable outcome at present.
    Farage is more popular and less unpopular than you realise. He is no longer the fringe UKIPPER

    The British people feel utterly betrayed on immigration (and they are right to feel that). Farage is the only guy that’s been honest about it and willing to talk about it

    He’s gonna win as things stand. BUT there’s a long way to go of course. We could all be living on Neptune by 2029
    A couple of things, Farage wanting the UK to take back Shamima Begum is going to get plastered all over the airwaves during a campaign.
    Because his opponents are stupid enough to undermine their own fearmongering by presenting him as being a moderate who thinks we should take responsibility for our own citizens?
    Fuck me WIlliam, Farage could soil himself on live TV and you'd be spinning it as a positive for him.
    That isn't going to happen when he has direct access to an infinite stock of Trump diapers. Time to peer inside those maroon shorts just to check if precautions have already been taken.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,045

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,365
    Foss said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
    Reminds me of the architect who wanted to build linear tower blocks. With motorways on the roof…

    Trying to remember the architects name. Lived in an Elizabethan manor house and used his influence to prevent any development in the area.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,577
    edited January 30
    Has anyone told Mr Chump that Ozempic is controlled by a Danish Company, who can probably stop it if he doesn't pipe down?

    Just asking.

    *innocent face*
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,010
    Dopermean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Khan can't in good conscience support a third runway after a long difficult campaign for ULEZ, which has overwhelming support in the Labour supporting bits of London.

    And if Farage becomes the primary opposition leader and the Conservatives are in the low teens, you'll see the lefty vote consolidate and grow in inner cities. I can see Khan winning another term in that scenario.

    How much of a problem is aircraft pollution? Hyudrocarbons, NOx, etc.?
    The dubious case for the 3rd runway is that it will reduce stacking and reduce pollution.
    Think the criticism of Reeves, that she's just accepted several hobbyhorses at face value, could be justified here.
    Listening to Howard Davies argue that it is popular in Aberdeen and Inverness because it will improve their connectivity to London made me wince.
    Hmm, still introduces more pollution low down, esp. as they are using a fair bit of power at takeoff to get up quickly to reduce noise AIUI. The real aim is expansion as any fule kno, so that excuse is pretty pathetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,714
    edited January 30
    Thinking of "Heathrow constituencies" Will McDonnell be running again in 2029 ?

    He'll be 77. My guess is he'd probably win against the official Labour party candidate if he did though.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246

    Foss said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
    Reminds me of the architect who wanted to build linear tower blocks. With motorways on the roof…

    Trying to remember the architects name. Lived in an Elizabethan manor house and used his influence to prevent any development in the area.
    Sounds like Saudi Arabia's The Line!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,258
    edited January 30
    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    kenObi said:

    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    kenObi said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    We will never Rejoin because it will never be worth any UK government expending the political capital required (and this is setting aside problems like the euro, Schenghen, a decade of negotiation, fisheries, migration, possible veto by any one of 27 EU nations)

    Think about it. Why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing well and you're high in the polls? You wouldn't take the risk, referendums are horribly risky, pointless

    But then, why would you call a Rejoin referendum if you are doing badly and everyone hates you, again you are simply offering the voters a chance to give you a kicking and vote against anything you desire

    The only way we might Rejoin is if we are literally starving to death and some national coalition proposes it as the only solution, but then the Europeans will surely veto us as a basket case that will drag down the EU economy

    We are never going to Rejoin. It is not practical politics in the real world. Better to accept it

    I think this looked to be true pre-Trump, and pre the time when Trumpism might shape the USA for the long term. I don't think it looks certain now.

    Why? I know TRIP, the Rory and Campbell show, is not universally popular but the most recent discussion is pretty chilling on the evidence for the direction the USA is going in

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0fdoOxkN4o
    Rory fucking Stewart is a fucking imbecile. Really. Alistair Campbell is a depressed alcoholic with a huge guilt trip about Iraq. Together they have the political acuity of a cheese toastie

    However, I said 95% certain we won't rejoin and not 100% because, black swans

    A massive world war, or the USA become a hostile dictatorship would indeed be a very black swan and easily enough to see us back in the EU (and there would probably be even greater sequelae)

    But, I don't any of these as more than 5% possibilities, combined
    Point taken, though it is possible to miss the wood for your ad hominem trees. (And Rory was my MP, and I wish he still was, and he is genuinely interesting. They are both, in TS Eliot's words 'wounded surgeons').

    In probabilities, I think the chance of straight Rejoin EU is fairly small, but the chance (say in the next generation) of some sort of deal, the Switzerland or Norway sort, is more like 30%.

    Additionally, the chances of America ceasing to be an active ally and turning its attention away from Europe and NATO are not negligible. Wait and see. We are only 10 days in to the new reality.
    Their analysis of Trump (I just watched ten minutes of it) is on the level of a quite bright sixth former. I am regularly astonished by the way apparently clever people - such as you - buy this intellectual pap tricked out as powerful insight
    Says the guy who voted for Starmer.
    I'm watching more of it now, it's pure midwittery and entirely shite

    Stewart has just said "Trump is calling for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza" which is such a ridiculous misreading it is either a deliberate lie OR more evidence that they really are quite dim

    Trump thinks outside the box. He is saying "maybe the Gazans would be better off giving up on their shit lives in Gaza and having a much richer, more peaceful life elsewhere". And, of course, Trump has a very good point. Hamas wants the Palestinians trapped in Gaza forever, their misery endless, their suffering a constant source of grevance and militancy - because we all know Israel will never agree to a 2 state solution, not now

    And yet Trump saying "Hey here's a better choice for Gazans than the endless pain that Hamas offers" is somehow Trump calling for ethnic cleansing?! According to Rory "wow who knew immigration was so high" Stewart?

    Enuff. Only idiots are taken in by this pabulum. I am disappointed @algarkirk is one of them
    I know two otherwise-sensible people who have paid actual money to see Stewart and Campbell in a theatre.
    Destroying a region's infrastructure, blocking supplies and encouraging the inhabitants to seek refuge elsewhere so that other people (of a different ethnicity) can move in and build their own homes and infrastructure funded by government isn't ethnic cleansing?
    He may not be directly calling for it but he is tacitly supporting it.
    Trump is offering a better future for Gazans than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority are offering. Its realpolitik

    Also, it's not like this is some unprecedented evil; deliberate population movements - to solve intractable problems - happen all the time. Greeks and Turks after WW1, Muslims and Hindus at Partition, Germans after WW2, and many others

    The alternative is that the Palestinians continue to squat there in perpetual misery because

    1. Israel now won't ever yield to a two state solution

    and

    2. The Palestinians cannot defeat Israel, and nor can anyone else without nuking them (and getting nuked in return) and thereby rendering the entire Levant uninhabitable for 20,000 years


    What wonderful examples of things that aren't 'ethnic cleansing'. Idiot.
    Which is why I called it a “ridiculous misreading” of Trump

    I mean, go ahead and call it “ethnic cleansing” if you want, that enables you to ignore the fact it’s actually an imaginative and humane solution to this hideous 70 year nightmare

    In an ideal world Israelis would get over October 7 and ask for 2 states and Gazans would not be enraged anti Semites. But this is not an ideal world, and Trump has bruited the only possible solution that might make Palestinian lives a lot better and fast while giving Israel security
    You and Trump may well be right, and this might be what happens. But as a thought experiment, post the same suggestion in reverse – that Israelis should abandon the Middle East and move en masse to set up a new state in America – and you will be cancelled for antisemitism. And that is what is wrong with Trump's idea.
    The shoulder shrugging about Gaza and ideas like this from Trump rest on the belief that Palestinians are not 'proper people'.
    Quite the opposite. It’s addressing them as human beings who want a life beyond eternal squalor poverty and martyrdom for Hamas

    Yes it’s unideal for them. But it is the only idea out there that might radically improve their lives and in short order

    Alternatively you can suggest your idea
    I don't have anything new and wacky, I'm afraid. Boring old goal of a free and sovereign Palestine co-existing peacefully with Israel. It's never looked further off but it remains the only long-term sustainable outcome.
    I doubt that a separate Palestinian state is viable - not geographically contiguous, the extreme Israelis and Palestinians would also constantly seek to undermine it and the Iranians would always to looking to cause trouble.

    I think that the more sustainable outcome long term is for Israelis and Palestinian Arabs to coexist together in a Greater Israel/Palestine/Israeli-Palestinian Federation/whatever. Jews and Arabs coexisted in Palestine for centuries before Zionism (after the 8th century dispersals) and might be able to do so again. The 2 million Israeli Arabs whose ancestors survived ethnic cleansing in the 1940s show it is at least possible.

    The extreme Israelis would have to give up the idea of Israeli as a Jewish state and move towards acceptance of multiculturalism and the extreme Palestinian juihadis would have to give up the idea of pushing the Jews out.

    Would it be perfect or a panacea? No. Can I see an easy way to get there from here? Not really. But it would be a viable country with at least a chance of working.
    I used to think this falls down on "they breed".

    However Israel's birth rate is highest on OECD by a significant margin.
    I think where it would fail is because of the 3 million or so Palestinian refugees who have been in Jordan (and Egypt and Lebanon) for 80 years and to whom the Israelis have always refused to grant a right of return. If there is a peaceful, multicultural federation, even the spurious pretexts the Israelis keep making for not allowing them their rights under international law would become untenable. Those refugees, added to the five million in the West Bank and Gaza and the two million Israeli Arabs would mean that the 7.2 million Jews would be in a minority in Israel and without some credible safeguards they would not be willing to accept that.

    So I'm afraid my Utopian solution of a civilised, cosmopolitan state is unlikely and a continuation of the present situation of oppression punctuated by massacre is the most probable outcome.
    Or, alternatively, the Donald J Trump solution. Which, however much you hate him, or Jews, or America, or Israel, is the only solution which offers anything to the Palestinians other than “more of the same, but probably worse”

    Ethnic cleansing always looks deceptively simple and attractive to people sitting in armchairs in London or Washington with large scale maps, especially if they are basically ignorant of the region and its history, as Donald Trump clearly is.

    Move people from Place A where they aren't having a good time to Place B where they can thrive. But I'm afraid when you have to inflict it on people who have lived in a place for generations, at the behest of a brutal occupying power, and force them to move to a much poorer place where they are not wanted and have no ancestral ties, it rather breaks down in practice. There are also lots of complicated questions about what do you do with people who are of mixed ancestry, or people who are too old or ill to move.

    That is why it is rightly considered one of the four Mass Atrocity crimes, alongside genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
    And the alternative is…

    Well, you posted it, The situation as now - extreme squalor and deprivation - punctuated by massacres

    I submit that this is worse, you are free to disagree
    Funny how the dim witted right are all for self determination when it comes to their favoured peoples.

    Not for Palestinians it seems.

    I'm sure tens of thousands would jump at the chance to emigrate, but how about we ask them ?
    I’m suggesting that the world community clubs together and gives every single Palestinian £100k and a condo

    Literally

    It can be slowly paid back from the profits as Gaza is developed into a kind of Monte Carlo on med. a freezone governed not by Isreal or Hamas or anyone.

    It’s not like the Palestinians are losing much. They’re not from Gaza they’re mainly from Isreal, they were displaced from Israel by the nakba. Their homeland is already gone and they will never return

    So what they will be giving up is a refugee camp/open prison

    I apologise for wondering if there might just be a better future for them than that
    The "better future" is that the Israelis finally live up to their obligations under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, to which they are a signatory, and allow the Palestinians to return to their ancestral homelands from which they ethnically cleansed them in the 1940s and learn to live side by side with them, as they do with the 2 million Israeli Arabs.

    Better than ethnic cleansing anyway.
    But that’s not gonna happen.
    Maybe, maybe not, but unlike ethnic cleansing, however dressed up, a peaceful and tolerant Israel with all its ancestral peoples living side by side is at least a future worth aspiring to.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,795

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Interesting. Her reaction is very much along the lines that Reform is selling out and is persecuting the noble and the good. If a new high-profile organization emerges that is to the right of Reform what will happen? Reform's supporters don't seem particular enamoured with Nigel's brand of moderation.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,159
    edited January 30

    Foss said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
    Reminds me of the architect who wanted to build linear tower blocks. With motorways on the roof…

    Trying to remember the architects name. Lived in an Elizabethan manor house and used his influence to prevent any development in the area.
    Of course he did! Concrete is for the little people!

    It'd be interesting to see images of that particular scheme.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,111

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Interesting. Her reaction is very much along the lines that Reform is selling out and is persecuting the noble and the good. If a new high-profile organization emerges that is to the right of Reform what will happen? Reform's supporters don't seem particular enamoured with Nigel's brand of moderation.
    I saw the headline and thought she’d resigned over links to Facebook.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,667
    GIN1138 said:


    Survation.
    @Survation
    New Westminster Voting Intention

    LAB 27% (-3)
    REF 24% (+4)
    CON 22% (-3)
    LD 13% (+2)
    GRE 8% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    OTH 4% (-)

    I think we may see REF hitting 30% by Easter!
    Labour had their worst media week since the aftermath of the budget with the sentencing of the Southport murderer. I am not sure why that would have hit the Tories, but never mind.

    Farage was front and centre of Southport coverage with his cynical linkage of the murders to asylum seekers/ immigration which he suggested were out of control under Labour (and perhaps this is where the Conservative decline comes in too).

    Fresh from kissing the Trumpian ring Farage's star has been in the ascendency since 20th January. He's taking his opportunities, but is there much more to Hoover up?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,401
    edited January 30
    Trump!!

    JFHC, even by his standards
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,010
    edited January 30
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    Nonsense.

    His intervention makes it certain that they will simply pave Heathrow with a solid circle of concrete.

    *Infinite* runways.

    (In the old days of grass fields, you simply took off into the wind. Whichever way that was)
    Or a huge concrete wheel...
    Reminds me of the architect who wanted to build linear tower blocks. With motorways on the roof…

    Trying to remember the architects name. Lived in an Elizabethan manor house and used his influence to prevent any development in the area.
    Of course he did! Concrete is for the little people!

    It'd be interesting to see images of that particular scheme.
    Were the motorways on the roof or on a lower balcony? (Bit like the way they trieds to move the pedestrians up to 1st floor in Princes St, Edinburgh, to make lots more room for a lovely motorway. As welll as wrecking the south side with univcersity flaktuerme and planning blight for another motorway. Bastards.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,667
    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump!!

    Excuse you!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,328
    This is dire from Trump
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,324
    edited January 30
    Have this polling company's methods been verified?

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 27% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 23% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 21% (-2)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

    Changes from 22nd January
    [Find Out Now, 29th January, N=2,487]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1884969653639770528
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    What (and I am scared to ask) has he done now?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    Andy_JS said:

    Have this polling company's methods been verified?

    "Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    Find Out Now voting intention:

    🟦 Reform UK: 27% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 23% (+1)
    🔵 Conservatives: 21% (-2)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 10% (-)

    Changes from 22nd January
    [Find Out Now, 29th January, N=2,487]"

    https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1884969653639770528

    They're BPC registered.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    It's going to be an interesting four years from Trump.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,614
    edited January 30

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    What (and I am scared to ask) has he done now?
    He’s blaming, inter alia, Biden, DEI, and air traffic controllers with dwarfism for last night’s accident.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    CD13 said:

    It's going to be an interesting four years from Trump.

    From Wikipedia:

    "May you live in interesting times" is an English expression that is claimed to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. The expression is ironic: "interesting" times are usually times of trouble.

    Despite being so common in English as to be known as the "Chinese curse", the saying is apocryphal, and no actual Chinese source has ever been produced. The most likely connection to Chinese culture may be deduced from analysis of the late-19th-century speeches of Joseph Chamberlain, probably erroneously transmitted and revised through his son Austen Chamberlain.[1]

    Origins
    Despite the phrase being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is no known equivalent expression in Chinese.[2][3] The nearest related Chinese expression translates as "Better to be a dog in times of tranquility than a human in times of chaos." (寧為太平犬,不做亂世人)[4]
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    What (and I am scared to ask) has he done now?
    He’s blaming, inter alia, Biden, DEI, and air traffic controllers with dwarfism for last night’s accident.
    The last one, I was not expecting...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,401

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    What (and I am scared to ask) has he done now?
    He’s blaming, inter alia, Biden, DEI, and air traffic controllers with dwarfism for last night’s accident.
    That Radar dot on the left is DJT, that radar dot on the right is the 25th.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,152
    edited January 30
    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
    The Denmark links appear to be the flashpoint, with the governing parties wanting to turn them off when the current contract ends, in 2026. But "renegotiating" the contracts for UK and Germany links is mentioned:

    https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/12/13/norway-aims-to-cut-energy-links-with-europe-due-to-soaring-prices
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
    People (eg Musk) think Farage is cuddly compared to the proper hard right - and I agree - but that doesn't necessarily apply to his party. Strong polling, yes, but they have a lot of detoxing work to do. Their people and policies are going to be heavily scrutinised if they go into a GE campaign as a potential government rather than a 'rock in the pond' protest vote.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,152
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
    The Denmark links appear to be the flashpoint, with the governing parties wanting to turn them off when the current contract ends, in 2026. But "renegotiating" the contracts for UK and Germany links is mentioned:

    https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/12/13/norway-aims-to-cut-energy-links-with-europe-due-to-soaring-prices
    Swedes aren't happy either:

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241220-sweden-sees-red-over-germany-s-energy-policy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,324
    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    kinabalu said:

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
    People (eg Musk) think Farage is cuddly compared to the proper hard right - and I agree - but that doesn't necessarily apply to his party. Strong polling, yes, but they have a lot of detoxing work to do. Their people and policies are going to be heavily scrutinised if they go into a GE campaign as a potential government rather than a 'rock in the pond' protest vote.
    In the past, Farage cleverly positioned himself as being cuddly: standing for something, but not being too extreme. (How much that reflects his true beliefs and how much is for show, I don't know.)

    The situation today has perhaps changed. Many of his natural allies have gone harder right. (Much, much, much harder right in the case of Musk.) Many of his voters were already outright racists, but this has given them permission to be more vocal about that (as seen with some here).

    Meanwhile, Farage also has to transition from a one-man band, where he could rely on his charisma to get him through, to a party of multiple personalities.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,111
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    An article from last year:

    https://viewfromthewing.com/diversity-in-the-skies-faas-controversial-shift-in-air-traffic-controller-hiring/

    During the Obama administration, the FAA moved to ‘off the street’ hiring with diversity as a criteria, passing over graduates of FAA-approved university air traffic control programs.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    Well, Trump is certainly not selecting the best people for the job now...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478
    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    Hard to watch, isn't it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397
    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
    But regarding the price of gas, the debate I watched with Farage last night (Farage must know a bit, he was a commodities trader) he said that whilst the domestic oil price is dictated by the world price, the gas price isn't - or at least gas prices domestically are dictated by a variety of things. Is this true? It's not something I've seen discussed much here.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,995
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    They're air traffic controllers. The qualifications for a job are i) turn up at work on time, clean and sober, and ii) route hundreds of aircraft thru the air each day so they don't collide. In terms of suitability, it's a bit binary.

    Having said that, the comments on PPRUNE make me think that there's been a problem with Reagan Int'l Airport and other US airports for some time. I doubt it's DEI and strongly suspect it's too many planes and not enough people in too cramped an airspace. They've had a similar approach for pilots for some time and tales of pilots on food stamps are now commonplace.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,079
    Labour need to get cracking to meet their commitment on house building. Not all their faul the poor performance in the article but no signs of increasing the quantities built so far.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce85ggj3640o
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397

    kinabalu said:

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
    People (eg Musk) think Farage is cuddly compared to the proper hard right - and I agree - but that doesn't necessarily apply to his party. Strong polling, yes, but they have a lot of detoxing work to do. Their people and policies are going to be heavily scrutinised if they go into a GE campaign as a potential government rather than a 'rock in the pond' protest vote.
    In the past, Farage cleverly positioned himself as being cuddly: standing for something, but not being too extreme. (How much that reflects his true beliefs and how much is for show, I don't know.)

    The situation today has perhaps changed. Many of his natural allies have gone harder right. (Much, much, much harder right in the case of Musk.) Many of his voters were already outright racists, but this has given them permission to be more vocal about that (as seen with some here).

    Meanwhile, Farage also has to transition from a one-man band, where he could rely on his charisma to get him through, to a party of multiple personalities.
    Yes, it's all going horribly wrong for Reform isn't it? I hope they can do something, anything to turn it around.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,127
    Taz said:

    Labour need to get cracking to meet their commitment on house building. Not all their faul the poor performance in the article but no signs of increasing the quantities built so far.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce85ggj3640o

    This is part of the problem:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clye401051go
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    They're air traffic controllers. The qualifications for a job are i) turn up at work on time, clean and sober, and ii) route hundreds of aircraft thru the air each day so they don't collide. In terms of suitability, it's a bit binary.

    Having said that, the comments on PPRUNE make me think that there's been a problem with Reagan Int'l Airport and other US airports for some time. I doubt it's DEI and strongly suspect it's too many planes and not enough people in too cramped an airspace. They've had a similar approach for pilots for some time and tales of pilots on food stamps are now commonplace.
    The problems seem to be those of late stage capitalism: the profit motive matters more than people.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,795

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    An article from last year:

    https://viewfromthewing.com/diversity-in-the-skies-faas-controversial-shift-in-air-traffic-controller-hiring/

    During the Obama administration, the FAA moved to ‘off the street’ hiring with diversity as a criteria, passing over graduates of FAA-approved university air traffic control programs.
    Doesn't that article blow Trump's point out of the water?

    There’s no indication that unqualified people have become controllers because of hiring practice changes. These hires don’t just have to go through extensive training, they also need to get signed off on before being released into duty. If anything, indications are that this process is too strenuous, not that it’s too lax.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246

    kinabalu said:

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
    People (eg Musk) think Farage is cuddly compared to the proper hard right - and I agree - but that doesn't necessarily apply to his party. Strong polling, yes, but they have a lot of detoxing work to do. Their people and policies are going to be heavily scrutinised if they go into a GE campaign as a potential government rather than a 'rock in the pond' protest vote.
    In the past, Farage cleverly positioned himself as being cuddly: standing for something, but not being too extreme. (How much that reflects his true beliefs and how much is for show, I don't know.)

    The situation today has perhaps changed. Many of his natural allies have gone harder right. (Much, much, much harder right in the case of Musk.) Many of his voters were already outright racists, but this has given them permission to be more vocal about that (as seen with some here).

    Meanwhile, Farage also has to transition from a one-man band, where he could rely on his charisma to get him through, to a party of multiple personalities.
    Yes, it's all going horribly wrong for Reform isn't it? I hope they can do something, anything to turn it around.
    Where I did I say anything had gone wrong for Reform? I pointed out changes in their context. I would go as far to say challenges. Don't be such a snowflake!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,111
    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    They're air traffic controllers. The qualifications for a job are i) turn up at work on time, clean and sober, and ii) route hundreds of aircraft thru the air each day so they don't collide. In terms of suitability, it's a bit binary.

    Having said that, the comments on PPRUNE make me think that there's been a problem with Reagan Int'l Airport and other US airports for some time. I doubt it's DEI and strongly suspect it's too many planes and not enough people in too cramped an airspace. They've had a similar approach for pilots for some time and tales of pilots on food stamps are now commonplace.
    The problems seem to be those of late stage capitalism: the profit motive matters more than people.
    "Late stage" capitalism - is it on its last legs then? I don't really get that impression.
  • algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Those all important bloc scores on the doors:

    Find out now:

    LLG 44 RefCon 48
    LabCon 44 the SPLORG 56(!)

    Survation:

    LLG 48 RefCon 46
    LabCon 49 the SPLORG 51

    So find out now is much more positive for Nige and his crew on both measures.

    Lab/Con 44% looks like a new low for recent times, though I don't know if FON is a proper pollster. Lab/Con on 4th July was 59%. At GE 2017 it was 82%. This is truly change making if anywhere close to correct.
    There was a combined Lab/Con 36% in a YouGov poll in June 2019. Brexit 26%, LD 22%.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,814

    Barnesian said:

    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

    If the seat predictor isn't broken by this new 4-5 party world. Which it probably is.
    Yes. It doesn't cater for tactical voting so big weakness in the predictor
  • viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    They're air traffic controllers. The qualifications for a job are i) turn up at work on time, clean and sober, and ii) route hundreds of aircraft thru the air each day so they don't collide. In terms of suitability, it's a bit binary.

    Having said that, the comments on PPRUNE make me think that there's been a problem with Reagan Int'l Airport and other US airports for some time. I doubt it's DEI and strongly suspect it's too many planes and not enough people in too cramped an airspace. They've had a similar approach for pilots for some time and tales of pilots on food stamps are now commonplace.
    So far, it doesn't actually sound as though it's the fault of ATC. As I understand it, the military helicopter would have been flying VFR, and so should have been looking out for, and keeping clear of, other traffic. In the transcript of the communications with ATC, the helicopter pilot was specifically told to pass behind the landing aircraft.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246

    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.

    I'm happy to be on the side that doesn't demonise immigrants. You should come visit, William.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,079

    Taz said:

    Labour need to get cracking to meet their commitment on house building. Not all their faul the poor performance in the article but no signs of increasing the quantities built so far.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce85ggj3640o

    This is part of the problem:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clye401051go
    I wonder if they can be bought off, their objections overcome with some compensation.

    I get their objections and it would radically change where they live, unlike if they were to build 100 new homes on a field round here. But societies need has to trump that of individual nice to haves.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,246
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    They're air traffic controllers. The qualifications for a job are i) turn up at work on time, clean and sober, and ii) route hundreds of aircraft thru the air each day so they don't collide. In terms of suitability, it's a bit binary.

    Having said that, the comments on PPRUNE make me think that there's been a problem with Reagan Int'l Airport and other US airports for some time. I doubt it's DEI and strongly suspect it's too many planes and not enough people in too cramped an airspace. They've had a similar approach for pilots for some time and tales of pilots on food stamps are now commonplace.
    The problems seem to be those of late stage capitalism: the profit motive matters more than people.
    "Late stage" capitalism - is it on its last legs then? I don't really get that impression.
    Have you seen the US? I don't know what that is, but I wouldn't call it, to coin a phrase, strong and stable.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,452
    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    What (and I am scared to ask) has he done now?
    He’s blaming, inter alia, Biden, DEI, and air traffic controllers with dwarfism for last night’s accident.
    That Radar dot on the left is DJT, that radar dot on the right is the 25th.
    President JD Vance.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,452

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    Well, Trump is certainly not selecting the best people for the job now...
    Well, that rather depends on how you define the job. "Normal US administration", no. But...
  • glwglw Posts: 10,046
    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump!!

    JFHC, even by his standards

    Trump is simply put a racist and misogynist. He's scum.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,127
    From PPrune:

    "Imagine being that ATC right now. As if yesterday wasn't horrific enough, the President of the USA is now on TV implying that the accident was directly your fault, and that you are a mentally-handicapped diversity hire."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,995
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

    If the seat predictor isn't broken by this new 4-5 party world. Which it probably is.
    Yes. It doesn't cater for tactical voting so big weakness in the predictor
    Um, electoralcalculus allows you to select "tactical voting". See here: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,452

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is dire from Trump

    I hope there isn't any truth in his accusations that the best people for the job weren't selected.
    An article from last year:

    https://viewfromthewing.com/diversity-in-the-skies-faas-controversial-shift-in-air-traffic-controller-hiring/

    During the Obama administration, the FAA moved to ‘off the street’ hiring with diversity as a criteria, passing over graduates of FAA-approved university air traffic control programs.
    Doesn't that article blow Trump's point out of the water?

    There’s no indication that unqualified people have become controllers because of hiring practice changes. These hires don’t just have to go through extensive training, they also need to get signed off on before being released into duty. If anything, indications are that this process is too strenuous, not that it’s too lax.
    Let's consider what Sir Humphrey and Bernard said about finding no evidence...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478

    "Obviously it is not standard to have aircraft collide. I want to be clear on that." So said Sean Duffy, Trump's new secretary of transportation.

    I found that a helpful clarification. I had previously presumed that aircraft colliding was just routine.

    Yet more straight talking commonsense from this administration. Blast of fresh air after years of mealy mouthed wokery.

    (William, where are you? I can't hold the fort for long)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397

    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.

    Funny one Priti's recent seeming leftward journey. Can't fathom it. Currying favour by fitting in with the profile of a plurality of Tory MPs? Just as the broader direction of political travel was moving in a Priti Patel direction.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,452
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

    If the seat predictor isn't broken by this new 4-5 party world. Which it probably is.
    Yes. It doesn't cater for tactical voting so big weakness in the predictor
    If it's anywhere near a three way tie with two more parties come the general election, tactical voting is going to be very difficult.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397
    kinabalu said:

    "Obviously it is not standard to have aircraft collide. I want to be clear on that." So said Sean Duffy, Trump's new secretary of transportation.

    I found that a helpful clarification. I had previously presumed that aircraft colliding was just routine.

    Yet more straight talking commonsense from this administration. Blast of fresh air after years of mealy mouthed wokery.

    (William, where are you? I can't hold the fort for long)
    Quite extraordinary of Trump to have had such a profound impact on the aviation industry in his *checks notes* weeks in office.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,995

    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.

    • Reform = anti-immigration people
    • Conservatives = pro-immigration right wingers.
    • Labour = pro-immigration left-wingers
    As I mentioned in my classification article, it's another axis in a multi-axis environment
  • Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,814
    edited January 30
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of all the recent polls gives the following picture:

    If the seat predictor isn't broken by this new 4-5 party world. Which it probably is.
    Yes. It doesn't cater for tactical voting so big weakness in the predictor
    Um, electoralcalculus allows you to select "tactical voting". See here: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
    It doesn't work. Try it. You get error message
    ERROR. #general_predict: TransMatrix not available for England in 2024!
    It hasn't worked since the election.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,203
    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    I think he's the least successful barrister since Tony "Did Magna Carta Die in Vain" Hancock.
    Successful barristers present their case using their legal and presentational skills, whatever their feelings about the subject. Maugham is so convinced he is right that he thinks that’s enough for him to win. Results have proven otherwise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,111
    viewcode said:

    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.

    • Reform = anti-immigration people
    • Conservatives = pro-immigration right wingers.
    • Labour = pro-immigration left-wingers
    As I mentioned in my classification article, it's another axis in a multi-axis environment
    Support for immigration is almost by definition right wing because it is in the interests of the rich and corporations.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,410
    edited January 30
    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    There are WAY too many flashbacks in Black Doves

    Black Doves is shit. Shitter than pyramids.
    I hate pyramids now because of you.
    They're just stupid massive squares on the ground that slowly get smaller as you go up. Pyramids are well-shit.

    But Black Doves IS shitter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,045
    My latest Substack:

    The Fundamental Interconnectedness of Energy Prices

    Again, feel free to like, etc. :smile:
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 234

    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
    But regarding the price of gas, the debate I watched with Farage last night (Farage must know a bit, he was a commodities trader) he said that whilst the domestic oil price is dictated by the world price, the gas price isn't - or at least gas prices domestically are dictated by a variety of things. Is this true? It's not something I've seen discussed much here.
    He traded metals and decades ago.

    He is talking through his hoop

    Industrial or domestic gas.

    Industrial gas prices for importers (which the UK is) are broadly similar.
    So in the UK Large business gas prices are very similar to the rest of the EU

    USA would be a lot cheaper - that's because they have a glut of it and export maybe 50% of what they produce. But think about the process of liguifying the gas, shipping it accross oceans, the terminals both ends etc etc

    Germany had to build terminals in a hurry once Ukraine happened.

    We have terminals plus 2 way interconnectors
  • Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder if he will boldy go.................to the supreme court to stop the third runway.

    Relax, Jolyon Maugham is bringing a case to stop the third runaway, this alone means Heathrow is going to end up with a minimum of five runways now.
    I think he's the least successful barrister since Tony "Did Magna Carta Die in Vain" Hancock.
    Successful barristers present their case using their legal and presentational skills, whatever their feelings about the subject. Maugham is so convinced he is right that he thinks that’s enough for him to win. Results have proven otherwise.
    He needs to be more modest and self effacing.

    It’s why I make money from betting, I am happy to bet on outcomes that I know will displease me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478

    kinabalu said:

    The politician who has been kicked out of Reform for being too extremist. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kl2nmzrvo If Reform want to be seen as a serious party worthy of government they are correct to get rid of such pople.

    Yes. Agreed. The problem is whether they'll have anyone left...
    People (eg Musk) think Farage is cuddly compared to the proper hard right - and I agree - but that doesn't necessarily apply to his party. Strong polling, yes, but they have a lot of detoxing work to do. Their people and policies are going to be heavily scrutinised if they go into a GE campaign as a potential government rather than a 'rock in the pond' protest vote.
    In the past, Farage cleverly positioned himself as being cuddly: standing for something, but not being too extreme. (How much that reflects his true beliefs and how much is for show, I don't know.)

    The situation today has perhaps changed. Many of his natural allies have gone harder right. (Much, much, much harder right in the case of Musk.) Many of his voters were already outright racists, but this has given them permission to be more vocal about that (as seen with some here).

    Meanwhile, Farage also has to transition from a one-man band, where he could rely on his charisma to get him through, to a party of multiple personalities.
    Keep the racist vote and at the same time get most of the general protest and 'change' vote. This is his mission should he choose to accept it and he wins if he pulls it off. It's far from impossible but it's not my idea of the most likely outcome. Although it's more likely than you'd want it to be.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,029
    David Cameron FULL INTERVIEW | Part 1: Prime Minister at last | Political Currency podcast

    What’s it really like to step through the black door of No 10 for the first time as Prime Minister? Ed Balls and George Osborne ask David Cameron about his “out-of-body” experience on the way to the palace to meet the Queen, plus what it’s like organising a staff team who have just had to say goodbye to a government. They discuss how to handle the top job when life starts relentlessly throwing events at you, the surprising tasks - like letters of last resort - that suddenly become your responsibility, and whether a ruthless streak is the only way to succeed.

    As Keir Starmer marks six months as Prime Minister, Political Currency is stepping back into 2010, when another former leader of the opposition took up the premiership. Across three episodes, Ed Balls and George Osborne are joined by David Cameron - from the moment he arrived at Downing Street, to dealing with a hostage crisis; taking on his first PMQs to the emotional loss of his father. This is Cameron as you’ve never heard him before - in conversation with both a former ally and adversary as they revisit the political moments that shaped a new government and a new leader.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-qhsrA0WPQ
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,045
    Cookie said:

    Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Not obviously the case. For us to know that this is good policy making we would need to know both costs and benefits. All we have here is benefits.
    Exactly: if it is the least fit examples of humanity that are being culled, then the human race as a whole benefits.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,593
    Cookie said:

    Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Not obviously the case. For us to know that this is good policy making we would need to know both costs and benefits. All we have here is benefits.
    I dislike 20 mph zones, but reluctantly admit that they don't really add significantly to journey time, because they're limited to a village at a time, and the figures seem reasonably persuasive.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,203

    This is now the key dividing line in British politics. On the one side, Nigel Farage, and on the other, Priti Patel and the rest of the liberal establishment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1884992844944843153

    The Conservative Party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration — and would do it again.

    Please share this video far and wide.

    I'm happy to be on the side that doesn't demonise immigrants. You should come visit, William.
    At least @HYUFD backs up his partisanship with verifiable facts. If you try that method, @williamglenn, you may find that others may be more likely to listen to you.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,324
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,203
    Cookie said:

    Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Not obviously the case. For us to know that this is good policy making we would need to know both costs and benefits. All we have here is benefits.
    What’s the cost of a life?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,397
    kenObi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies, if this has been mentioned already (not seen it). Could get interesting on interconnectors.


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    Political crisis in Norway due to -- wait for it -- high electricity prices linked to exports to the rest of Europe via interconnectors.

    The coalition gov collapsed Thursday, leaving the center-left Labour Party to govern alone for 1st time in 25 years.

    And the biggest interconnector, lest we forget, is the 1.4GW North Sea Link which went live in 2021 and exports energy to the UK.

    The reality is that energy prices are extremely correlated everywhere. It's why the UK, Pakistan and Australia all saw the same increases in energy prices as Germany when Russia invaded Ukraine.
    But regarding the price of gas, the debate I watched with Farage last night (Farage must know a bit, he was a commodities trader) he said that whilst the domestic oil price is dictated by the world price, the gas price isn't - or at least gas prices domestically are dictated by a variety of things. Is this true? It's not something I've seen discussed much here.
    He traded metals and decades ago.

    He is talking through his hoop

    Industrial or domestic gas.

    Industrial gas prices for importers (which the UK is) are broadly similar.
    So in the UK Large business gas prices are very similar to the rest of the EU

    USA would be a lot cheaper - that's because they have a glut of it and export maybe 50% of what they produce. But think about the process of liguifying the gas, shipping it accross oceans, the terminals both ends etc etc

    Germany had to build terminals in a hurry once Ukraine happened.

    We have terminals plus 2 way interconnectors
    We are talking within the context of domestic production of gas, so we wouldn't be importing it. Clearly we would pay the market price for imported gas. So it seems to be you talking through your fundament, or at least doing some silly obfuscation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,995
    edited January 30
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,324
    edited January 30

    Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Did anyone expect 20mph wouldn't result in fewer deaths than 30mph? I can't imagine so. I suppose the question is whether it's worth it in other ways, because if we wanted no deaths on the roads we could ban road traffic altogether but I'm guessing most people aren't in favour of that, even though that increases the number of people killed on the roads compared to if it was banned.
  • Cookie said:

    Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Not obviously the case. For us to know that this is good policy making we would need to know both costs and benefits. All we have here is benefits.
    I dislike 20 mph zones, but reluctantly admit that they don't really add significantly to journey time, because they're limited to a village at a time, and the figures seem reasonably persuasive.
    This provides the context and a fair review of the debate

    Deaths and serious injuries on Welsh roads fall in first year of 20mph default

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/deaths-serious-injuries-welsh-roads-30897288#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,478

    kinabalu said:

    "Obviously it is not standard to have aircraft collide. I want to be clear on that." So said Sean Duffy, Trump's new secretary of transportation.

    I found that a helpful clarification. I had previously presumed that aircraft colliding was just routine.

    Yet more straight talking commonsense from this administration. Blast of fresh air after years of mealy mouthed wokery.

    (William, where are you? I can't hold the fort for long)
    Quite extraordinary of Trump to have had such a profound impact on the aviation industry in his *checks notes* weeks in office.
    I doubt "The buck stops here" will be found on Donald's desk however long he's there.
  • Well now.

    1 YEAR OF 20MPH

    There were around 100 fewer people killed / seriously injured on 20/30mph roads.

    Casualties from July-Sept was the lowest Q3 figures in Wales since records began.

    Over the year the number of casualties on 20/30mph roads is 28% lower than the year before.

    Good policy making.


    https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3lgxalcnhi225

    Reduce the speed limit to 1mph and make a man with a red flag walk in front of all vehicles and the casualty rate would drop 100%. All policies look good if you only talk about the positive effects, not the negative.
Sign In or Register to comment.